7 min read
Major Takeaways
Republicans are now defending Senate seats in red states that were once counted as safe wins.
President Donald Trump holds the lowest approval of any president entering a midterm since 1946.
Democrats lead polling averages in five Republican held Senate races and need four seats for control.
Black voters in Mississippi, Texas, Ohio and the Carolinas could decide who holds that control.
Republicans hold a huge cash edge, so turnout in the final week matters more than money alone.
The final week of this midterm campaign opens with Republicans playing defense in red states across the country.
That fact alone tells the story of this election season.
Seats in Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina and Mississippi have grown competitive in recent weeks.
Each of those states backed Trump by wide margins in 2024.
Now the president is traveling to those same states to protect his own party.
Trump speaks in Corinth, Mississippi on Monday night for Senator Cindy Hyde Smith.
He was in South Carolina on October 21 and in Kansas on October 19.
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in nearly 100 years.
A party does not send its president there in the final days by choice.
Senate Races in Red States Are Suddenly in Play
Republicans now hold 53 seats in the Senate.
Democrats hold 45 seats, with two independents who caucus with them.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51 to 49 majority.
Polling averages now show Democrats ahead in five Republican held seats.
Former Governor Roy Cooper leads Michael Whatley in North Carolina by 9.9 points.
Cooper stands at 50.6 percent against 40.7 percent for Whatley.
Former Senator Sherrod Brown leads Senator Jon Husted in Ohio by 3.3 points.
Brown stands at 48.2 percent against 44.9 percent for Husted.
Readers can follow that contest in our Ohio Senate race coverage from last week.
James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas by 1.5 points.
Mary Peltola leads Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska by 1.2 points.
Troy Jackson leads Senator Susan Collins in Maine by 1.4 points.
Two more races sit within a single point with Republicans narrowly ahead.
Senator Roger Marshall leads Adam Hamilton in Kansas by only 0.3 points.
Representative Ashley Hinson leads Josh Turek in Iowa by only 0.6 points.
Several of these margins sit inside the usual margin of error.
Polls show direction and momentum, not a final result.
Still, a map this wide eight days out is a warning sign.
A President With Record Low Approval on the Trail
Trump told reporters on October 23 that his visits lift every candidate.
He said every single place he goes, people who are down are now winning.
The polling released last week tells a harder story for his party.
A major national poll released October 21 put his approval at 36 percent.
That marks the lowest rating in that survey across both of his terms.
Two other national polls last week also set record lows for him.
One analysis found the lowest approval for any president entering a midterm since 1946.
The weakness reaches into districts his party counts as its own ground.
An internal Republican poll in a House district Trump carried by more than 20 points found him underwater.
In that district, 47 percent approved of his work and 50 percent disapproved.
Campaign ads show how candidates are handling that weight.
Only 1 percent of Republican ads aired in October mention Trump.
That share stood at 47 percent back in May.
Democrats, by contrast, mention Trump in 21 percent of their ads.
Some Republican candidates now distance themselves in public.
Senate candidate John Sununu in New Hampshire aired an ad on that theme.
He said his rival tries to paint him as the president and joked that he has never even met the man.
Cost of Living Is Crowding Out the Closing Message
Strategists in both parties keep returning to one issue above all others.
Marc Short, who served Trump in his first term, named affordability as the top issue.
Short said voters feel that is not where the president has focused.
He said Trump should promote the big tax cut package passed through Congress in 2025.
Short added that in reality that is not what he is usually talking about.
Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini tied the mood directly to gas prices and the war in Iran.
Ruffini called this a horrendous environment for Republicans this cycle.
He said there could be more of a focus on cost of living.
Ruffini called cost of living the number one, two and three voter concern.
On October 18, with two weeks left, Trump announced a championship golf course plan in Washington.
At an October 23 rally in Florida, he spent as much time on White House renovations as on the economy.
For Black families, those detours land on top of real bills.
Rent, groceries, gas and child care decide how this economy feels at home.
A closing message about buildings does not lower any of those costs.
Money Is Flooding In to Hold the Line
Republicans are answering momentum with a massive cash advantage.
Ad tracking puts the Republican edge at 322 million dollars in seven key Senate races.
Elon Musk has contributed 369 million dollars to Republican campaign efforts.
Trump has said he plans to exceed 400 million dollars in campaign spending by Election Day.
Mississippi shows how fast that money now moves into new ground.
The main Democratic Senate group recently announced 1.2 million dollars in ads for Scott Colom.
The main Republican Senate group is weighing a late round of spending to defend Hyde Smith.
That group recently sent new funds into South Carolina and Kansas as well.
Our earlier report tracked the Corinth rally and the Mississippi Senate race in detail.
Money can buy ads in the final week, but it cannot buy enthusiasm.
Ruffini said the Republican task is to hold the wave at bay.
That phrase captures the whole Republican plan for the next eight days.
What This Map Means for Black Voters
Control of the Senate decides far more than a party label in Washington.
It decides who confirms federal judges for a generation.
It decides whether health care, food aid and housing funds grow or shrink.
It decides how hard the federal government protects the right to vote.
Black voters hold real weight in several of the states now in play.
Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio and North Carolina all have large Black electorates.
In a race decided by 0.3 points, a single county can change the outcome.
In a race decided by 1.5 points, a single strong weekend of turnout can do the same.
That is why both parties are spending and traveling where they once felt safe.
They know the voters who were ignored in safe state planning are now the voters who matter most.
The work for Black voters this week is plain and practical.
Check your registration, find your polling place and vote early if your state allows it.
Bring a neighbor, a parent or a first time voter with you.
More coverage of this election lives at Urban City Podcast through Election Day.
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and early voting is already open in most states.
Eight days remain, and the map says nothing is settled yet.
