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Major Takeaways
A Sunday analysis of six Southern states shows an early voting surge led in large part by Black voters.
Texas early turnout is up 44 percent from 2022, with about 1.3 million more ballots already cast.
Black voters hold 22 percent of early ballots in North Carolina and 34.7 percent in Georgia.
Tennessee is the lone exception in the region, and its lag shows how much competitive races matter.
Early ballots are a snapshot of energy, not a final result, and one full week of voting remains.
1. Texas Sets the Pace in the Early Voting Surge
The early voting surge is biggest in Texas, and it is not close.
About 1.3 million more ballots have been cast than at the same point in 2022.
That is a 44 percent jump in a state with marquee races at the top of the ballot.
Texas has already recorded early votes equal to half of its entire 2022 turnout for governor.
Border counties such as Hidalgo, Cameron, El Paso and Webb have passed even that strong mark.
Election analyst Michael McDonald of the University of Florida reported the findings on Sunday.
McDonald tracks turnout nationwide through his 2026 Elections Project.
He credited competitive Senate and governor races in part for the climb.
He also warned that who is voting early does not by itself prove how they voted.
2. Georgia Black Voters Are Outpacing Their Share
Georgia early voting is running ahead of the same point in both 2022 and 2018.
White voters are trailing their 2022 pace in the state, McDonald found.
Black, Hispanic and other minority voters are casting more ballots than before.
State data put the scale in plain terms last week.
Black voters are about 31 percent of registered voters in Georgia.
They had cast 34.7 percent of early ballots as of Friday morning.
That was 186,659 ballots out of 537,347 cast in total.
It was roughly 40,000 more Black early voters than at the same point in 2022.
Georgia set a midterm record on the first day with 188,667 in person votes.
That opening day total was up 40 percent from 2022.
The stakes explain the urgency for Black Georgia.
Former Atlanta mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Rick Jackson for governor.
A Bottoms win would make her the first Black governor in Georgia history. Read our coverage of the Georgia governor race and Black voters.
Senator Jon Ossoff also faces Representative Mike Collins in a race that could shape Senate control.
3. North Carolina Numbers Keep Climbing
North Carolina has recorded more than 400,000 additional early votes compared with 2022.
Black and Hispanic voters have posted particularly strong gains in the state.
More than 279,688 Black voters had cast a ballot as of Thursday.
At the same point in 2022 and 2018, that number stood near 170,000.
The 2026 pace is more than 60 percent higher than in 2022.
Black voters account for 22 percent of early ballots cast so far.
They make up roughly 19 percent of the state registered electorate.
The surge follows a hard fight over the state congressional map.
Republican lawmakers redrew the map in 2025 to add a seat that favors their party.
They reshaped the district held by Representative Don Davis, a district with many Black voters.
The redraw cut the Black share of voting age population there from roughly 40 percent to 32 percent.
Davis now faces retired Army colonel Laurie Buckhout in a race rated as a toss up.
His campaign said it will keep going after every single vote and run through the tape.
For voters on the ground, the cost of living sits beside the map fight.
Reginald Fischer is a 70 year old Black retiree from New Bern.
He said rising costs are his top concern this year.
He also pushed back on maps drawn to help one side.
Anytime they do redistricting just to favor either party, I do not care for that, Fischer said.
North Carolina also holds a competitive Senate race this cycle.
Former governor Roy Cooper faces former Republican national chair Michael Whatley.
4. Florida Shows a Different Kind of Strength
Florida has counted about 2.7 million early ballots so far.
Registered Democrats hold a thin edge of about 4,000 ballots in that total.
That edge matters because Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 1.5 million registered voters.
Democratic and unaffiliated voters have reached their early voting levels from 2022.
Republican voters continue to lag their own pace from that cycle.
In person early voting among Black and Hispanic voters has roughly doubled from 2022.
McDonald expects Republicans to gain ground as more in person voting days arrive.
Still, a doubled pace among Black voters changes the math in close Florida races.
5. Tennessee Proves the Rule About Competition
Tennessee stands out as the exception to the regional surge.
Early in person voting there is running 15.7 percent below 2022 levels.
Shelby County, home to Memphis, is down just 8.8 percent.
McDonald pointed to the absence of highly competitive statewide races as a likely cause.
South Carolina sits between the surging states and Tennessee.
Its gains remain much smaller than those in North Carolina.
Only about one third of South Carolina voters cast ballots before Election Day in 2022.
Several neighboring states saw at least two thirds of voters cast ballots early.
The pattern is clear across all six states in the analysis.
Where races are close and Black voters see real stakes, turnout climbs fast.
Where the outcome feels settled before it starts, energy drops.
6. What the Early Voting Surge Means in the Final Week
None of these numbers decide a single race on their own.
McDonald stressed that early voting figures are snapshots, not election predictions.
Republicans could close gaps in the remaining early voting days and on Election Day.
Black voters in Georgia learned that lesson in 2022 and remember it well.
The Black share of Georgia early ballots started near 36 percent that year.
It ended at 29.4 percent by the close of early voting.
An early lead is only power if it holds through November 3.
That is why churches, barbershops, campuses and family group chats matter this week.
Every ride to the polls and every plan made now protects the gains already banked.
The broader map is also shifting in the final stretch. See our report on Republicans playing defense in red states.
For Black communities across the South, the message of this surge is simple.
Our votes are being cast early, in record midterm numbers, and with clear purpose.
The work now is to finish the job together. Follow our News coverage through Election Day.
