Listen To This Article
Urban City Podcast Group
Urban City Podcast Group Audio
Urban City Podcast Group
Major Takeaways:
The Green Bay Packers’ impressive 2-0 start, fueled by a stout defense and efficient play from Jordan Love, has made them the new betting favorite to win the NFC.
Significant adjustments were made in the market’s power ratings, most notably a major downgrade for the San Francisco 49ers without Brock Purdy, making them a potential value side.
Early betting action shows lopsided handle on several games, with the New England Patriots getting the points against the Miami Dolphins as the most heavily bet side of the week
Packers Emerge as NFC Favorites, NFL Week 2 Betting Lines & Market Reactions
This is money moves on VSIN the sports betting network.
We are locked and local on a football Friday here on Money Moves. Stormmy Bon
and Tony, Jonathan Vontova with you live from downtown Las Vegas. Circa Resort and Casino. Big show on deck. We’ll get
into some of the market reaction from the Packers win last night as week two of the NFL season is officially
underway. A big college football weekend also got started last night and will carry over. But let’s get this thing
started like we always do. Producer Brian Ortega, time to run it down. It’s time for the top headlines and
topics of the day. This is the rundown. All right, JBT. Top items on deck as we
head into the weekend. Starting with some great guests in 30 minutes. We’ll get top plays from VO’s own Will Hill. Then in hour two, VO senior editor Zack
Cohen stopping by with some NFL and college football as well as Arash Marcazi of the Sporting Tribune in
addition to all of our football talk tonight. Big fight weekend coming up Saturday here in Vegas. Yeah. I mean, so
I’m curious. You don’t have to say yes. If you’re not, are you going to watch the fight? Um Oh, no. You’re working. Let me rephrase
this. If you weren’t, would you would you? Because one of the things that I am like, I’m now down, especially with this
new UFC model coming in, like I like mixed martial arts a little bit, actually, a lot more than I do enjoy boxing. But the fact that this is now so
much more accessible, I already have my Netflix sub. Let’s go. I’ll watch it. I’ll throw it on. I’m I’m excited. I cannot wait. So, yes, Brain Part, you’re
going to be on the sideline for it. Uh, but I am very much looking forward to this fight and I’m actually looking forward to if boxing continues to do
this watching more fights. Well, and I was gonna say it’s been a while since I’ve watched just a pure boxing match. So, I’m excited. There’s
name value, it’s accessibility, it’s all of that stuff. So, that’ll be fun to get into with Arash later on in hour two of the program. Uh, that again is happening
right here at Allegiance Stadium. Well, cuz I even threw you for a loop cuz I was like, are you going to watch it?
You’re like, it’s a little, you know, a little crossover. Uh, we will also get into streaming on your phone. our best bets
of the weekend and cementing our contest selections. We are in Circumillions, Circus Survivor. You’ve got the college
football contest at the Westgate. So, lots of finalization to happen today. Put the college picks in this morning.
And yes, we need to solidify. I think we’re pretty close to solidifying our five in the millions, but we need to
lock down today and I’m going to press you on is what we’re going to use for Survivor. And I’m nervous. I have a lot of anxiety.
But let’s before we look forward react to last night, Thursday Night Football. last night at Lambeau Field and as Bill
AD headlined the V daily newsletter this morning. The pack is back. Green Bay haven’t heard that one
beats the commanders 27 to8 covers the three and a half. Total stays under any number and the final score I don’t even
think was as indicative as decisive a win as this was for Green Bay last night. Never in doubt really from the
opening drive. It felt like it goes back to what were we talking about? Was it Monday or after Monday? I mean these games are stupid. They’re b
watch the fourth quarter. that the fact that statistically that was such a a rear end whooping for the Green Bay
Packers and yet you look up in the fourth and you’re like, “Oh, it’s 17-10 and this could be something here if we’re if we’re like you got to kind of
sit up.” So, uh but Green Bay was really impressive and uh I will give two-time owner of the the Green Bay Packers,
Brian Ortega, who did not wait the second he walked into the studio. I was going to offer this. I think I owe a
mayopa. I didn’t think the Packers were going to be bad, but I have questioned whether or not Jordan Love was going to be particularly good. Uh, putting the
ball in danger was one of the things that I referenced quite a bit, especially from last year. My man’s been slinging it through the first two weeks
of the season. Now, there’s a couple of throws and a couple of touchdowns that he left on the table that if he actually completes those, we’re probably talking
about a snoozer last night, but it’s been pretty impressive to watch Love operate this offense. um now healthy and
after what we saw from last year this looks like dare we say the best team in
the NFC North and they are being priced as such when you look in the market right now let’s
first go to Jordan Love who you mentioned a great night 19 to 31 292 pass yards two touchdowns no picks that
extends his no interception streak by the way to nine games now dating back to last season he is the third shot on the
board for MVP was 20 to1 preseason 12 to1 after week 1 now 7 to1 behind only
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. And as we go to the NFC here, standalone favorites. Green Bay is at 3 to1 to win
the NFC. They are minus 165 favorites to win the NFC North. Yeah, and I think it’s all pretty apt
and obviously it has to do with what you’ve seen from this team or excuse me where they’re at. They’ve played a second game. They’re 2 and 0 amongst
some other teams. But the thing that really sticks out when you watch them is outside of love defensively they seem
legitimately strong. I mean, you had Micah Parsons in the over the quarter sack and he got there with the half
sack. You by the way, sorry, real quickly, I’m glad that we mentioned a couple of times yesterday the difference between that
prop being a quarter sack and a half sack because different books do it differently and that ended up coming into play with Parsons. Go ahead.
Yes. Um, but just that, you know, yesterday I had talked about Edin Cooper and the fact that he had been one of
these dudes that had been really taking a step forward. He again plays a large snapload. comes out with I think 10 or
11 tackles and uh looks really strong there. Even came away with half a sack as well. This front seven looks
legitimately good. Almost every part of this team looks really strong. And I mean I mentioned the best in the NFC
North depending on whether or not the Eagles figure out what’s going on with that second corner spot. You can make a pretty strong argument this team could
be after two weeks the best team in the NFC. No doubt about and again they are the favorites in the NFC now all of a
sudden. And be I want to go a little bit deeper on this defense because particularly against the run, how stout
this group has been through two weeks now. So Washington last night trying to run the football 19 carries for 51
yards, 2.7 yards per carry. And then pair that with what we saw against
Detroit last week and that’s Jir Gibbs and David Montgomery coming at you. 22 carries for 46 yards. So in all giving
up less than 250 total yards both games. um two wins over teams, mind you, as
well that were 12 plus win teams a season ago that were both top five in the NFL last year in points per game.
The Lions average 33.2 points per game, Commanders 28 and a half. They combined to score just 31 points on this team.
That defense looks real. And if you are getting that play to your point out of Jordan Love throughout and he stays
healthy and I know obviously the Jaden Reed injury is going to play a role in that, but they’ve got some other secondary guys like we were talking
about with Brian coming in. Could a Matthew Golden start to rise? Is their best patch pass catcher just going to be Tucker Craft because of what he’s doing
in the tight end room over 100 yards for him? He’s had touchdowns backto-back games. If this offense can operate at
just a a decent if not elevated level and have an elite defense behind them, they are a serious contender. Uh,
absolutely. I was trying to find what’s going to be interesting and uh we’ll see if I can grab the odds for it or if we
can find them because they are down now. I think they have a real shot at that last undefeated team.
So, they’re 2 and 0 right now. You look at the way their schedule breaks down. Depending on what you think of Cincinnati, who they get at home after
their buy, you’re looking at Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina up until November 10th in
Philadelphia. I I don’t think it would be astonishing if this team still has the O in their loss column by the time
they get there. We’ll see what happens with Cincinnati, but as we know, they have their issues defensively. They look like they have a very strong path, a
very likely path to being the last undefeated team or at least having a very strong record through eight games
by the time they go take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. just out of curiosity because I my one
of my early thoughts watching this game was okay maybe did I downgrade the Lions too much coming out of week one after
facing this team like what if the Packers are just that good so then you’ve got the Lions taking on the Bears this week and is that line getting out
to six actually may be a little bit more appropriate now based on what this team actually could be I don’t know and maybe
that’s this is just a more of a wait and see game than I initially thought after last night two things to be true at once though right which is, hey, maybe the Lions are
that bad and maybe the Packers are this good. Maybe they both deserve to be altered in terms of their ranking coming
off of that game. Uh, we will see if that’s going to be the case, too, as we we get a pretty good match up between the Bears and the Lions on Sunday. But I
I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s binary one or the other. I think this could be one of those situations where we could have a scenario where both things are
actually the truth. And I mentioned six, according to that graphic at DraftKings, we’re up to the six and a half right now. Um, a couple
other market movers just to let you know. Um Parsons, his odds shortened in
defensive player of the year to plus 475. And we mentioned the MVP odds for Love. Jaden Daniels, uh Love is in that
third spot now. Daniels was in the third spot. He’s now seventh on the board at 12 to1. Um I mentioned the Jaden Reed
fraction fractured collar bone. He’s expected to miss six to eight weeks, but the big injury for Washington, Austin
Eckler going down looks like a season ending Achilles. and they let Brian Robinson go to San Francisco because
they felt so confident in that room and the depth they had. Well, that depth is being tested right out the gates now. Yeah, that’s And I thought too, let me
double check this because I want to see if I have this down. There was a lot of, you know, we come out of the preeason,
off seasonason, and we talk about some of these um hey man, really excited for certain guys, their roles in some of
these games, what it’s going to look like. Uh, Bill, right? Bill Crosky Merritt. Bill Crosky Merritt still had in
totality fewer snaps than Austin Eckler. So, I was somewhat surprised because I thought this was supposed to be it. And
and so Eckler now getting injured. I’m going to be curious to see if Krosky Merritt’s going to get that full work
workload. One would assume that is the case, but we thought that coming out that this is going to be a larger workload. And for a couple of games now,
it looked like that wasn’t it. So now it seems from a fantasy standpoint, player prop standpoint, what some of the adjustments are going to be for Krosky
Meritt now that Eckler’s down. It’s going to be one of the more interesting storylines going into week three. Yeah. And he was one of the most bet props yesterday over depending the
number anywhere from 37 and a half to 39 and a half yards. Ended up just having four carries and 17 yards on the ground.
Also last night in college football JVT I said if there was a bet I liked at NC State Wake Forest it would have been the
over because of how I rate NC State’s defense but like so the total ends up
going over. I’m sad I didn’t bet it. Um Wake Forest was covering the plus seven and a half for like 55 minutes of this
game. do not score in the second half. NC State kicks a late field goal, ends up
winning the game by 10. But we were texting back and forth about NC State’s defense. Like maybe we’re just needing
to target overs on this team or team total overs on the other side. Whatever it is, because that defense is brutal.
It was bad. I mean, so they give up the it was the kickoff return for the touchdown. Correct. Like right right away.
Down 14 nothing right away. Yeah. And then and then you give up the seven play 93 yard drive. And when we talked about this game yesterday, we had
referenced this in we were talking about the Virginia game where they had given up explosive plays, explosive runs, and
that looked like it was going to be an issue for NC State. And you saw some of that, but in totality for Wake Forest,
still the numbers don’t really add up for them. Only 12 first downs in the game, 7.2 yards per pass, fewer than
three yards per rush. So this was, man, there was quite a few of folks feeling
really good about Wake Forest when they were up 14 nothing. you and I text and then all of a sudden you blink and NC
State is driving away with this thing. So, it was a pretty um pretty interesting affair, but I think you put a little pin in the fact that NC State
defensively has had some really big black marks on their resume and they go to Duke coming up next week. Yeah, Wake Out scored 17 nothing in the
second half of that one. And too bad there wasn’t a yes no prop on will there be a food truck fire because all of the
smoke coming over. Kudos to the cook inside the truck. Did you see it? He’s got the the extinguisher thing. make it.
I would have been out. You just would have left the whole truck burn down. Run away. Run away. I
get an idea of how you work in a panic. Yeah. Not great self-defense or whatever. And what’s the problem? Fight or flight. Fight or flight. It ain’t me. Uh coming
up on Money Moves, JBT is taking us through his updated NFL market power ratings. And we’ll have some more college football a little later. We’ll
be right back.
You’re watching Money Moves here on Vin. The Sports Betting Network.
[Music] [Applause] We’re rolling along on this football
Friday edition of Money Moves Beast in the Sports Betting Network. He’s Jonathan Vonto. I’m Story Bon and Tony.
You can’t hit me with like things that make me laugh right before we come. I’m trying to be a professional and you got
me giggling. I hear the control room giggling. I’m doing my job and looking up, you know, metrics and statistics and and
breaking down EPA by formula. No, I’m not. Um, but I just I wasn’t really listening to you guys and I just hear
what was it? Stars of Mormon what? The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And
you guys were talking about Dancing with the Stars. And so then I snapped at you and I was like, you get so mad at me
about the Eurob basket stuff. How do you have time to watch these things? I don’t watch them. Then how do you know?
I get Tik Tok updates. That’s ridiculous. I don’t believe that at all. I don’t watch them. You have legitimate excitement about
Dancing with the Stars. the only reality TV cuz I like Tanga from Boy Meets World. Who doesn’t? You do. You are of
my age range. There’s no way you don’t know Boy Meets World. I have not watched a second of Boy Meets World in my life. I kumba. Okay. On to bigger
Secret Life of Alex Mack. On to bigger but potentially not better things. Um the NFL explains it all. Does
that Yeah. How’s that? It’s a good reference. Wow. That’s a throwback. I honestly like that is a show that
escaped my mind altogether. But look it up because what a just unlocked the memory. Time to get into some NFL, don’t you watch that girl
stuff? Like, I mean, it was on and I was like, “All right, I have an older sister.” But that’s why I don’t get the boy meets world thing. Anyways, we got week two
market power ratings you put together. You really did do a lot of work on this. So, I do want to give you your flowers.
You do this each and every week. Uh, for someone who has not seen your market power ratings, can you give a brief explanation off the top? Uh, again, I will always shout out Jeff
Fogle, former employee here, uh, who does a great newsletter if you want to check that out, too, but taught me how to do this many, many years ago. And I
think it’s a really fun Google exercise. This is in in basic format. It is what the betting market thinks of these
teams. It’s how it power rates these teams and you derive them from the current betting market where the lines
are right now. I have been using one and a half points for home field to find the difference in a neutral for these teams
according to the betting market and then you set the ratings up as such. So, there’s a couple of different ways to
use this and I think we have a really good example to use. Now, before the show started, I tried this example out
on you, and it did look like your eyes were moving in a lot of different directions. So, I hope I wasn’t like bloiating and and saying a lot of
different things. I was talking fast, but I think your team is a very good example of what we’re looking at here,
why we’re going to use these. So, let’s throw these up really quickly. Uh, again, basic power for a power ranking
or power rating standpoint, which is um, hey, all right, difference between the two numbers, that’s exactly what these
teams would be on a neutral. So, the quick example, Ravens will be a two-point favorite over the Bills on a neutral according to the market power ratings for this week. So, let’s direct
your eyes if you’re watching up on YouTube TV. Why wouldn’t you be? Or von.com. Why wouldn’t you be? Go to vast.com/subscribe. Check it out for
If you’re not right now, go back later. You can always check it out on demand. There we go. Promote, promote, promote. Uh, if you direct your eyes, and for our
radio audience, I will describe it to you. The 49ers without Brock Pery fall on the 78 12 line. Now, why this
matters, and if we could keep this up, please while I’m talking about this, why this matters is again the 49ers and the
Saints are pairs this week. They’re playing each other. The difference between the two on a neutral field
because the market is at three would be 4 and a half because we’re using one and a half for home field. So, you have to
have a 4 and 1/2 point difference between these two. So, in other words, if you wanted to move the 49ers up, that
means you got to move the Saints up as well. And from a power rating standpoint, it would make no sense to
have the Saints as equals with the Panthers, as equals or excuse me, two points or a point worse than the Giants.
In fact, Storm, if you go back to last week, I had to upgrade the Saints because if I were to use the Saints at
72, which they were last week, clearly the worst team in the NFL, that would put the 49ers on that 76 12 line, which
would make them worse than the Giants and the Titans, just a little bit better than the Panthers. And again, this is the 49ers without Brock Pury. You can
see the market downgrade here. And I think it’s one that’s very clearly, as I’ve kind of been making the case, I
don’t know, man. It seems like a pretty strong adjustment with what we’ve seen with this 49ers team to make them these
short favorites on the road against New Orleans. And here we have a visual example of how far they have potentially fallen. And so with that, does that mean you
feel like you need to bet the 49ers this week? Because the number is three. Granted, it’s on the road, but then even
when you take some of the extraneous factors and like your personal opinion on M. Jones, you don’t feel like it’s
that significant of a downgrade from Brock Party. So that then impacts your opinion in a different way as well. So,
are you ultimately going to fire on the 49ers or are we going to have them as a contest play? Yeah, I think that they should. Um, I
don’t want to put you through that. So, I don’t think we’ll use it in the millions, but that that’ll be a side for
me this coming weekend with the San Francisco 49ers. And this is really what it is. You know, you you use these market ratings, you know, you have your
own numbers, but that’s essentially what you’re doing all the time, right? You have your own ratings, you make your own numbers, you look in comparison with the market. This is just a different version
of doing that when you’re talking about make part power ratings from the market, but it does give you a visual sense of
where these teams stand. Um, there’s a couple of interesting dynamics that you thought that you were highlighting. What do you got?
So, I was going to say another one that we were talking about before we came on was where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit. If you want to walk uh the audience
through that. All right. So, Bucks are taking on the Texans uh Monday night. That is the first of the double header. They are two
and a half point dogs. Simple math. Two and a half minus one and a half. That gives you one. Texans are a point better according to the betting market if we’re
using one and a half for home field this coming week. That of course is right here. You see it in the rankings if you
would direct your eyes to the 82 83 mark right there. Texans are on the 83 line. Buccaneers are on the 82 line. There’s a
point difference. The reason why that matters is from our market power ratings last week. The Buccaneers actually rated
out as a half point better than the Houston Texans. So when you put this together, there’s going to be some
volatility. There’s going to be a change from week to week. But this is where you find a little bit of the inconsistencies. We’ve discussed this.
Now, what’s going to be interesting is we see a couple of two and a halfs out there shaded to the favorite side. So, I
wonder if this is going to get to three. But this all leads me to something that we had discussed, which is I think the Bucks are the play. You know, we can
talk about the intricacies of the matchups. The fact that this offensive line for Houston isn’t particularly great, the fact that the Bucks have a
good interior presence that can go after a soft interior for an offensive line that’s missing center. All of these things. But from a number standpoint, I
think these two teams are at worst equals with each other, which would put you at one and a half. Or I think you
can make the argument the Bucks, they were rightly ranked last week in these power ratings where they were just
slightly better than the Texans. And so to me, it would be the Buccaneers. I would also say, and I like the two and
a half, we talked about it yesterday. I I even think that they can just win this game outright plus 115 on the money line
here. But I think if nothing else, this is a great teaser. like bring that two and a half up to the 8 and a half in
Houston in what we anticipate could be a lower scoring game with how good the Texans defense is. Total 42 and a half
in this one. I really like bringing that up. Yeah. Can I point out one to you too as well that’s pretty interesting. Um how
about the the Chargers? Chargers, if you go back to last week, we know that the Chiefs were about three-point favorites
on a neutral field. So, that was pretty simple. Chiefs were on the 86 line, Chargers on the 83 line. This week,
Chargers and Chiefs because of adjustments are now together. Yep. They are now equals with one another and in
in a vacuum. Like, doesn’t that make sense? If I were to ask you, hey, what were you going to do after last week if we thought that the Chargers were three
points worse? Do you make them better than the Chiefs? Ah, maybe not. Especially with all the injuries and everything, but at the very least, they
should be equals with one another. And sure enough, here we are, Chargers and Chiefs together. And you see that, too. The Chiefs are taking on the Eagles. You
see the two-point difference there. They’re about one point favorites. The Eagles are on a neutral. That puts you at about two and a half. I was using one
as the number I was calculating with or excuse me. Yeah. So, and we’re floating around that range, right? Right now,
Philly’s like a one-point favorite. They’re a pick. So, you’re floating around that two-point difference on a neutral between these two. So, it’s just
a really good barometer. It’s a good way to visualize what you’re doing instead of just making numbers. You can compare and contrast with your own thoughts as
opposed to just cranking out power ratings as well. But, it’s I think it’s a fun thing to do and it’s fun to see
where these teams fall. You know, another good upgrade, for example, last week the Cleveland Browns. Browns were
on the 75 and a half mark or the 75 and a half line, you know, from a power rating standpoint. I think they got
upgraded to what 78. Yeah. So, like they’ve been upgraded. I think that makes some sense, right? After what we saw, probably should have won a game
against the Cincinnati Bengals. And then their adversary from last week, the Cincinnati Bengals, who were initially
on the 82 line, they don’t really budge. They sit there at the 82, but you bring the Browns up and um they’re a team,
too, among some others. Colts got upgraded. They’re at the 80.5 mark. Last week the Colts were floating around
equals with the Dolphins and actually no they’re at the 78 and a half line against the Dolphins. So I think it’s a
really good exercise man again and we can just give some visualization to where we’re at with some of these teams
and the question becomes with some of them you know for New Orleans to go back to the game we opened up with. Should they be upgraded? Should some of these
teams be where they’re at? Should they be lowered? And if those questions if you have questions to those then you act accordingly with some of the market
lines that we’re seeing. Well, and I think it’s just interesting, too, like looking at some teams in comparison to each other, even if they’re not playing
each other. Like the are are the Bengals that much better than the Colts right now, like that just based on at least
like the oneweek sample size. A handful of these though go hand inand of is this team actually that much better than
another? Sure. I mean, the one the one two um we’re talking about this, the Lions and the Chicago Bears. The Lions are getting
bet up in the market right now. Um do the Lions deserve to be rated as high
now? Now, it’s only one data point, but after what we saw against the Green Bay Packers, because right now they’re still
in that 83 1/2 84 line, if you see it right here, equals with the Chargers, the Chiefs, the Rams, still floating in
that kind of direction. Um, and I think you can make the argument that the gap between the two, the Chicago Bears and
the Detroit Lions probably should be a little bit tighter by my own measure. Well, and that’s why but to your point though about like these market
reactions, it is only a one data point sample size that we have at this point. So, we need to see what that looks like more. That’s why I asked the question
when we opened the show about now how good we see the Green Bay Packers are with against two opponents that last
year were so great. Are we maybe with the Lions? Did we move them down too
much mentally after what we saw against Green Bay when Green Bay is actually just really good. But to your point, two things can be true and we’ll see how
that plays out. We do have to take a timeout here, but remember as you head into the weekend, Broco has you covered.
You can use the code VSON to load up your account with a $50 deposit match up to 100 bucks. Then take advantage of monthly cashback style rewards that pay
you whether you win or lose. Maximize your bankroll at brocoplayco.com today. Coming up on Money Moves, V’s own Will
Hill joins the program. Why he thinks getting points in Sunday’s Super Bowl
rematch will happen. Take the over. We’ll be right back. You’re watching Money Moves here on Ven
the Sports Betting Network. [Applause]
Back here on VON, the Sports Betting Network. Money moves and VO’s exclusive betting splits cut through the noise,
pulling real time data straight from Circa and DraftKings sports books. Circa caters to the sharp bers and big wagers.
DraftKings is going to reflect that more broad public perspective, giving you a unique look at both sides of the action.
Track the percentage bets and handle on every game across every major sport so you can make sharper, more informed
bets. Start your edge today for just $9.99 at vin.com/subscribe. That’s vsin.com/subscribe.
Storm Bon and JVT with you. Speaking of those betting splits, looking at the Jets and Bills right now on DraftKings,
while 31% of the bets are coming in on the Jets taking the points, 70% of the
money, wonder if any of that has to do with the news this morning that Bill’s defensive lineman Ed Oliver, uh, who had
a sack and forced fumble in week one, officially ruled out already for the game coming up on Sunday. Yeah, I think with him officially out, I
grabbed six and a half, so I’ll add it to the ledger for, uh, the New York Jets. um second straight week back in
them. But I think that’s look with that Oliver, your premier runs stopping threat along defensive line. You still
got gouged and now you get this pretty threatening rushing attack um that comes from that Ben Johnson tree where Justin
Fields looked pretty threatening against the Pittsburgh Steelers overall pretty tall and this running game looked pretty good. And I don’t know if this is a
Bills team that is going to be amongst the best run defenses in the NFL. I think that bodess well for the Jets. So
I think it’s worth coming in with this news to grab six and a half. I don’t think it’ll move. So that but that was enough for me. So let’s go Jets. Yeah, Oliver, I guess, got stepped on,
had his foot in a walking boot, and was rolling around on a scooter at practice yesterday. To talk through some more NFL
sides, totals, best bets coming up this weekend. Excited to welcome in our good buddy Will Hill on the progressive guest
line. Von Prime Time, the should have bet more podcast. You can download and subscribe wherever you get your podcast. Great guest today. X not the Will Hill.
Yes, can confirm. And uh Will, let’s get into it because one game I know you have your eyes on is one of the biggest games
of the week, the Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and Eagles. You think there’s going to be points. Why?
I do. And uh good to see you guys. Thanks for having me. I I like over 46 and a half. Uh I thought watching both
teams last week, the Chiefs and the Eagles, I thought both teams had major issues defending the pass. A lot of guys
wide open, just running free in the secondary. Chiefs allowed six and a half yards per play to the Chargers. Herbert
three touchdowns, 300 yards, only ninecomp completions, no picks. And it looked like when he dropped back to pass, he had his choice of guys to
choose from. I don’t think that Kansas City has been elite defensively since a couple years ago when they brought when
they beat, and sorry to bring up painful memories that year. They beat the 49ers in overtime in Super Bowl. I thought they were really good defensively that
year. I don’t think they’ve been that year for a while. They’re shaky against the pass. And Philly, their numbers were
not bad in week one, but you could tell it’s not the same defense as last year. They’ve replaced a lot of guys. They’ve lost a lot of guys. And their stats
would be much worse if CD Lamb who dropped, you know, basically seven 10 points worth of drops last week. If he
could just catch a ball, those numbers are different. So you look at the two Super Bowls, it was 44-20, it was 3835.
I know that’s, you know, it’s a few years ago and there’s some defensive scoring there to inflate that. But I just think, and I always give out Bills
Chiefs over when they those two teams play because I think both teams go in, I think it’s similar here. Both teams go in saying, “All right, we got to score.
You know, we’ve got an MVP candidate at quarterback. We maybe have a shaky defense. We got to be aggressive. We got to go for it on fourth down. And again,
I don’t really like either defense. I wish that I had my weapons if I’m the Chiefs. No Rice. I don’t think Worthy’s
going to play. I think it’s more of a decoy him at practice, but who knows? Uh, so to me, the 46 and a half is
pretty low. I think 47 there is a key number. I think this one goes over here. And uh as far as the side kind of back
and forth, I just I can’t lay points even if it’s a point, you know, singular point and a half against Mahomes. It’s
hard to picture the Chiefs 0 and2. I I guess it’s possible. It certainly is possible, but I like the over more than
anything. All right, let’s go to another matchup. Um I’m laughing because I can’t believe I’m about to say this sentence after
watching this last week of football. What do you make of the Falcons taking on NFC offensive player of the year, JJ
or excuse me, of the week, JJ McCarthy? No, I think you had it right the first time. offensive player of the year, MVP.
So, you just uh just keep going. Yeah, that that was a weird one. Uh look, I I like the Falcons here. I think
that you if you just if you froze time at the end of the third quarter, I think we’re looking at like a one or a
two-point line. Obviously, you got to include the fourth quarter. You can’t dirty the data and take out things that happen. But they were very conservative
with McCarthy. And if you just look at Minnesota since the beginning of last year, and it’s hard to believe, 15 and
three in the regular season, that’s really remarkable. But that being said, uh, nine of those 15 wins are by one
score. They really don’t blow you out. It’s a lot of field goal wins. The three and a half to me is obviously a very key
number. And one of their blowout wins last year was against Atlanta, but if you dive deeper into uh that stat sheet,
Atlanta had over 70 yards per play. Atlanta had 500 yards of offense. It was 42-21, but Atlanta was minus three in
turnovers. That game just got away from that. Was at the point where Cousins started to unravel, started to kind of
decay. They moved the ball up and down the field. So, I think Atlanta could have easily won last week against Tampa.
They dropped some interceptions. You know, there’s some fourth down stuff. Minnesota could have easily lost. And u you know, our buddy Steve Fez who comes
on this network a lot has talked about this too. The angle of 0 and one teams against one and0 teams. You’re hungrier.
You need it more. Throw in the fact that you’re getting points. I think Atlanta’s the right side here. And Will, you did get some good news for
the Falcons, too. Drake London and Darnell Mooney. No injury designations for Sunday. So, both will play there as
well. Um, you were also looking at this Titans Rams game. Both kind of had a little bit weird week one openers. So,
where are you ultimately placing your money coming up on Sunday? Yes, the, as people who listen to this
network know, I have a very toxic relationship with the Tennessee Titans. And that toxic relationship is going to
continue this week. I’m taking them again. They killed me last year. I kept batting them. I just think they come into this year inherently underrated
because what killed them last year was Levvice and horrible special teams.
Special teams, you know, that can be year-toear that can you figure get better. And uh Ward looked okay. That
was a tough assignment in Denver. The elevation, really good defense. He was okay. He had his moments. I think that
the coach didn’t help him out. Drops didn’t help him out. I think he’ll be more comfortable at home. Uh we’ll see how Stafford holds up here after missing
the preseason a week after getting beat up and hit a little bit from the Texans. I just think five and a half is a little bit high. I think it’ll be close. I
think it’ll be low scoring kind of points in a premium type of game. You know, 20 to 17, that kind of game. I
think that five and a half is a lot here. So, I will once again, unfortunately, go back to the well and be betting the Tennessee Titans. Famous
last words for me. All right, Stormmy brought this up the other day and I think the general premise is right. I just don’t know if
the time is right, but you’re on the same page. Jackson Dart to win offensive rookie of the year.
I think his time is coming sooner rather than later. Maybe it’s next week. Who knows? Maybe it’s 21 nothing Cowboys at
half and we see him in the second half and and and who knows. I just think bet this before the announcement is made
because I think even just the announcement of oh Dart Dart’s going to start next week as quarterback. I think that moves the number and moves it
pretty significantly. So I’m just trying to get ahead of that. He’s a quarterback. This award is biased towards quarterbacks. He plays for the
New York Giants. That matters. The market matters. We’ve seen this. Remember uh I’m sure you remember JVT Tibido a few years ago in the NBA for
coach of the year. It was a close race. He got it. Uh, you know, Brian Dable won a close race a few years ago. I think I do think it helps to be in the New York
market and uh, I just think right position, right market, get ahead of the number. It’s not like Ward was great
last week. Genty didn’t do a ton. It’s a pretty wide openen rookie of the year race. So, I just think get ahead of the number. It’s going to be Dart’s team
sooner rather than later, we would think here, barring some resurgence from Wilson. So, I just think that’s the angle with it.
Yeah. To add to that, two of them. First off, Tibido won that. He had more second place votes or he didn’t have as many first place votes, but had more second
place votes than money Williams and he won that. the other to Will’s point, Stormy. Um, when Paul Skins, Paul Ske
before he got called up to win NL rookie of the year was 30 to1 and then he got called up didn’t didn’t pitch a single
pitch in Major League Baseball and those odds got cut in half the second he got called up. No, it’s it’s and it will it’s a good point by you because if if this ends up
being the end of the rope for Russell Wilson, you think he’s comes in sooner rather than later if it’s that bad and the offensive line doesn’t appear to be
getting much better. Andrew Thomas, by the way, still listed as doubtful for Sunday. That coming out about 10 minutes ago from Mike Gafolo. Keep that in mind.
And again, 22 to1 a good price on Jackson Dart right now. Last couple minutes, let’s go to college football
because we we all know about Diego Pavia as a dog and the success he has had. You were rolling with taking the points at
South Carolina, too. Yeah, I wrote this up for Fox Sports on Tuesday when it was five and a half. I
think we’re down to mostly threes. I still think it’s the right side. Uh very rarely this early in the season do you
have a common data point when these teams have only played a couple games and that’s a dangerous game to play as a better as we know. But, uh, both these
teams, Vandy and South Carolina, both played Virginia Tech. Uh, Vandy beat the hell out of Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech
team I actually liked last week. They outgainained them by 230 or so yards.
Uh, at Virginia Tech and won the second half 34 nothing. Meanwhile, South Carolina on a neutral field against
Virginia Tech played a game at least in the stat sheets that was kind of a coin flip. They got outgained. I know they had a punt returning, kind of pulled
away late, but I just I I love this South Carolina team last year, but a reason I a big reason I loved them was
their defense. And that defense lost three of the top 49 draft picks. They lost five guys to the NFL uh total. I
don’t think it’s the same South Carolina team. I think they’re a little bit overhyped. Uh so I will take Vandy and uh Diego here who’s just been a underdog
better’s dream. Like you said, eight-2 against the spread, four-0 on the road as a dog, a bunch of outright upsets.
So, even though the numbers moved here, I would only look towards Vandy. Yeah. Oh, sorry. I didn’t really No, no, I was
just there’s not enough time. I was going to ask about baseball. I got lost. I got lost. It’s okay. Ah, you want to spit out a play for
baseball real quick? 30 seconds. Go. Under seven and a half. Deg Grom against the Mets. Wouldn’t it be fitting Deg
Grom to pitch in a one- nothing game in that building where he’s pitching like a million two to one nothing games. That will be fun. With all of the football
going on, I had kind of lost track the fact that’s a huge series too. Mets and Rangers. Deg Grom back at City Field.
That’ll be fun to watch tonight. I think it’s more fitting if he loses one- nothing. It’s absolutely
nailed it, Will. Thank you as always, Will Hill. Everybody, follow him on X, not the Willilh Hill. Check him out live
bet Saturday coming up this weekend as well. Coming up after the break, we wrap up hour one going game byame through the
NFL slate. You might be surprised to learn what the most lopsided game of the week is so far. I know I was. We’ll be
right back. [Applause] [Music]
[Applause] [Music] [Applause]
[Music] [Applause]
You’re watching Money Moves here on Ven, the sports betting network.
[Music] [Applause] If you haven’t already, time to get down with First Bet, the official horse
racing partner of VSON, built for betterers who demand more. First Bet isn’t just about placing a wager. It’s
about helping betterers of all levels. With proprietary AI handicapping tools that provide data-driven insights to
help you make more informed bets, First Bet’s in-app tools give you win, place, or show probabilities for each runner.
You can quickly and easily identify good value plays and improve your ROI. Right now, you can take advantage of their
limited time $250 signup offer to claim your bonus. Use our promo code VSON250.
That’s V Sin N250 when you sign up in the First Bet app or at firstbet.com.
That’s the number one stet.com and promo code von250.
Alongside Jonathan Vonto, Stormy Bon and Tony with you back here on this football Friday edition of Money Moves. And I had
the tease at the end of last segment talking about the most lopsided in terms
of handle team that is being bet this week and I was very surprised by it. Ben Fox over at YouTube uh over at Yahoo
rather posts a lot of the sportsbook data every day every week. 87%
of the money the most the most bet side the Patriots plus the points at Miami.
Does that surprise you though? Really? Um,
no. I mean, I guess the degree to which like, you know, 87% if that’s an accurate number, but we talked about
Miami’s injuries and how bad it’s gone for them and how it looks like it’s falling apart. I guess I’ll say yes,
it’s surprising that they are number one cuz it’s like with a dot, right? Like they’re like clearly number one. Yes. So, I guess the degree to which they are
bet, but I don’t think it’s like stunning that maybe they would find their way near the top of this list. But they’ve good. So, I mean, it doesn’t
surprise me that people want to fade Miami based on how they looked last week and the injuries to your point, but
knowing what you have told me about how closely you watch that Raiders Patriots game and how terrible you thought New
England played that then we want to go. I feel like, okay, I want to pause you for I feel like every time you bring up
how closely I watch this game, my my analysis of has gotten more extreme like every time you brought it up. The first
time you’re like, “Oh, you told me they were bad and now we’ve reached you thought they were terrible.” like, yeah, they weren’t they weren’t good.
It was bad. It was bad. Well, to your point, to add to what you’re saying here, um I don’t think Christian Gonzalez is playing for New
England, so like that’s going to be something that’s worth looking at potentially. Um look, this is one where
um we’ll have best bets later. I think the Patriots are a perfectly fine teaser leg. This doesn’t look like it’s going
to be a relatively highscoring game, but also to express some shock, I think historically early season Miami games
have not gone well for the New England Patriots. So that’s going to be something uh with that sun beaten down. We know how these you know early season
Miami is akin to early season Denver and that when you played those games you a little bit behind the eightball. Denver
because of the inherent home field of playing in thin air. Miami because of the heat that teams maybe aren’t used to playing football in. So that’s also
somewhat surprising as well that there would be in in a game that’s not really been on a key number at all. Not really. It hasn’t been. It should sit at one and
a half this whole time. Um it does your shock is warranted. I think the other most lopsided games uh again
this is all by handle specifically from bet MGM data but 83% of the handle on
the Eagles in that Super Bowl rematch at Kansas City 79% of handle on the Falcons
at Minnesota 77% laying the points with the Lions against the Bears and 76% with
the Cardinals who are laying that 6 and a half against the Carolina Panthers. So, those are the most lopsided handle
percentages going into week two. Shocking. Any of those surprise you? I think I mean I’m surprised Arizona
still I I’m just really surprised that the Patriots were the most lopsided. You mean what’s the number for Arizona?
Uh six and a half. No, I mean like the percent Yeah. Like that that does surprise me a little bit. I mean I understand the Carolina
Panthers didn’t really look great, but it’s not like the Cardinals rolled in there and just beat the crap out of the Saints and left. I think that was not
exactly a stellar performance for Arizona when you looked at what they did statistically giving up the four red
zone drives uh to the New Orleans Saints. The fact that they had more first downs New Orleans did that technically they outgainained them on a
yards per play basis outgainained them in total yards as well. That’s not a team that I watched and then this week
was like let’s lay six and a half baby I’m in. That’s not exactly a team that I’m confident in. Interestingly enough,
like I I haven’t really heard a lot of people talking about the the Lions and Cardinals for Survivor as much as I
thought that I would this week. We talked about with Arizona specifically, we wanted to use them last week because
there were going to be limited opportunities to use them and we do have a slightly higher rating on the Carolina Panthers than others. didn’t want to use
them in week two, but after how Carolina performed, I thought that I would hear more about Arizona this week. But I I
feel like that hasn’t been as popular in talking to most people, which I think is a good conversation for us now as we
want to kind of figure out and cement what we want to do with Survivor. Um the
Ravens, yes, we know do play on Thanksgiving, but they are the biggest favorite of the week. Taking on a
division opponent though in the Browns, who just went toe-to-toe with the Bengals. So, it depends on how you evaluate Cleveland really if you want to
go with the Baltimore Ravens, but I I feel like both of us are pretty like-minded. The Baltimore is going to win that game. They should win that game.
And uh going to let’s not have that go around. I’m sure there was a lot of they’re
going to win this game when they were up 15 with five minutes left or whatever it was. So, Yep. And for the people that were laying
that point point and a half. Yeah. Not feeling great. Um but I think Baltimore is one that we’ve gone back
and forth on a lot. The Rams were also a team that perked my ears a little bit
against the Titans, but I don’t know if I can get there. And then you know how high I am on the Dallas Cowboys this week as well against the Giants. Yeah, I
mean I I’ve not really been like too high on the Rams selection for the most part in using them on the road against
what I think is a little bit of an underrated defensive team in Tennessee because let’s let’s roll with the
premise that I’m wrong about Bo Nicks and I think that you know there was some fraudulence in his performance last year and then we get that week one
performance and there’s a point of evidence to to my case but what if Tennessee is just an abovea defensive
team. Now you’re playing back at home after the game against Denver. It’s not the best situation overall for LA. I
think the argument to use them here is okay, if you’re not going to use them here, where else would you use them? I
would circle week nine. Again, it’s not like the pure fate of New Orleans, but you do coming off of a buy, get to play host to New Orleans. That’s going to be
something that I think is a more beneficial spot to save LA for than using them here in a road game against a
team that I think has the potential, if things go right for them down the stretch of the season, could find themselves in the throws of a
divisional race. I think you’re you’re right on that and I I do to Will Hills point earlier in the program which by
the way if you missed any of the show you can always download Money Moves wherever you get your podcast listen to that conversation but how Matt Stafford
bounces back after his first game getting tossed around didn’t play at all during the preseason didn’t practice hardly at all either um what he is like
physically week two on the road with the long travel all that stuff so okay maybe we cross that one out so are you in
agreement with me that Dallas feels like the right side in that Giants game. Yeah, I think your top two your top two
choices in no particular order, I’ll go alphabetical order again, are Baltimore and Dallas, okay, to consider for using Survivor. U you
know, we mentioned the the metric for the scripted plays and expected points added in those plays. I showed you the
graphic. Our boy Shottenheimer was up there as the number one team uh number one coach in terms of scripted plays,
expected points added. So, he is going to be I think a team worth looking at. They were actually kind of up there too
in terms of expected points out of the non-scripted drives. And I think that’s where Dak Prescott comes in and really helps out. I think my worry here from a
matchup standpoint, you’re at home, so that does help. What does this offensive line look like against a very good
defensive line? Are we going to be watching this game and find them in a low-scoring slugfest because that t that
entire defensive line remember we on Monday we talked about that game against Washington and the one thing that stuck out when we had brought it up was of the
top five graded defenders by PFF metrics four of them were defensive linemen for the New York Giants this is a group that
can really get after it and it’s still a relatively fresh offensive line that has been put together for Dallas that we
don’t know too much about and by the way the one test they were going to get Jaylen Carter got kicked out of the game before it started and we don’t really
know what his impact was at that game. That would be my trepidation with using Dallas. But if
you were to say right now, John, I want I’m like, all right, fine. That’s No, I I guess just my counterpoint to that would be let’s say that is the
case, is the Giants offense still going to be able to score enough points to beat you? Yeah. Oh, well, that’s the other part,
right? You love Jackson Dart. What if he what if he gets in this game? I don’t think he does. And so that’s
like I I feel like they if they were going to put Jackson Dart into a game, they would want to give him the full
week of prep knowing he’s the starter and put him in. I don’t think they’re going to throw him in, especially behind an offensive line that is still going to
be without Andrew Thomas for another week. Um just face your fate here this week
and if you do ultimately want to pull the trigger and bring in Jackson Dart, you give him a full week of prep. Sure. So that’s my thought process at least on
that. Okay. My other uh my other question for you would be then is there any other option for Dallas to use them? Probably
not. The only one you could really make a case for is if the Bears get absolutely smoked this week and they’re
just awful. You go to Chicago next week and then I don’t know, maybe at Carolina
if they’re awful in week six, but I don’t think that you’d be jumping at the gun to use the Cowboys in those situations depending on how the week.
Well, and the Cowboys, they too play on Thanksgiving and holidays, but like I don’t want to take them against the
Chiefs potentially, right? But Dallas this week at home, too. They’ve been so good historically in this matchup, 15-1
outright against the Giants since 2017. Um, Cowboys tend to beat up on bad teams. They play better at home. A lot
of things drew me toward Dallas. So, Dallas and Baltimore is the tossup right now. And maybe we’ll cement our decision later on in the show because we still
need to I hate this. This is going to be every week. This is going to be every or Yeah, I think Ortega hopefully.
Yeah, I was going to say, yeah, hopefully it is. Uh, Ortega texted us on Sunday something along the lines of like you survived and I just said that wasn’t
fun. No, it wasn’t worth it. It wasn’t. You feel physically ill. Who wants that? We could still We could still
technically our entry is now worth $1,32. We could sell it and split the profit. There we go. Nailed it. Nice.
$16 a piece. Okay, we got to step aside when we come back. Kicking off hour two here on Money Moves. Don’t go anywhere.
We’re going to get into a little college football after this.
Urban City Podcast Group
