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Urban City Podcast Group
Urban City Podcast Group
Major Takeaways:
Significant line movement in the Georgia-Tennessee game suggests sharp money may be coming in on Georgia, despite strong trends favoring the Volunteers as home underdogs.
Notre Dame is a strong play at home against Texas A&M, fueled by urgency after a season-opening loss and a profitable trend under coach Marcus Freeman following a bye week.
Vanderbilt is a live underdog with a strong chance to upset South Carolina outright, citing the Gamecocks’ deceptive 2-0 record and poor offensive performance against weak opponents
College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More
Welcome to the Blitz. Free plays for week three of college football coming right up. If you’re watching us live
here on the Wage Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now. Any game you want to talk about, we
will be happy to oblige. Of course, we’re talking all the big games for sure. That means Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, USF, Miami, Florida, LSU,
Arkansas, Old Miss, and Vanderbilt, South Carolina. Here to help me break things down, Ralph Michaels and Ross
Benjamin. And great news for all of you. The three of us have decided we like each other so much that we are now the
permanent team here on the Blitz each and every week. So, it’s me, Ralph, and Ross every Thursday live here at 1 p.m.
on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Ross, I’m going to go to you first here for Georgia and Tennessee. This is a
situation where we have seen significant line movement. We did see significant line movement early in the week. Number
dropped from Georgia 6 down to Georgia 3 and a half. I will tell everyone whether
this is true or not remains to be seen. However, a little birdie has indicated to me that we are going to see some
sharp money come in on Georgia in the next 24 hours or so. Ross, how are you
looking at this allimportant SEC matchup? Well, I mean, look, whether the sharp
money comes in on Georgia or not, um the line moved from six to three and a half,
right? And um I would say that that’s not public money. So
might be split here and uh the little birdie in the room that you heard from, I respect your opinion on that. But
look, here’s the thing. Tennessee’s 24-1 in their last 25 in Knoxville. Uh and
that includes in in 20 games against FBS opponents going 19 and or 21 games
against FBS opponents going 20- one and 14-7 against the spread. Ironically
enough, their only loss in that sequence came to Georgia. I just think this is a Tennessee team uh that’s built uh to
make a national title run this year. I mean, they they can move the ball offensively. I like their transfer
quarterback. Uh their defense we know is experienced and very good. Georgia to
me, I mean, especially last week when I look at their game last week against Austin P, they win 28-6. I think they
could be had, especially early in the season. So, I’m gonna have a small lean toward Tennessee here. And uh if Brian’s
right, maybe you’re better off waiting near game time where you in or over the next 24 hours like he said and you’ll
get a better number. But even at three and a half, I like Tennessee in the spot. Okay. I was doing this, Ross, not
because of your anything with to do with your breakdown. It was because Georgia, I think, could be accused the last two
weeks of perhaps a little sleepwalking to their first two opponents. They knew they weren’t going to be tested by Marshall and Austin P. But Tennessee
certainly, Ralph, a different story uh in a big bad SEC opponent. Nobody
is more keenly aware of the trends than you. Uh Georgia, let’s talk about the rivalry here. Uh Ross mentioned a
previous Georgia victory here in Knoxville. Well, last eight meetings overall, Georgia 8-0 straight up.
They’ve won those eight games by an average of 25 points per game. Now, some of those were when the Tennessee program was down, but Georgia’s covered the
spread in seven of those eight wins as well. What do you think? Does that history play into your handicap here at
all for Saturday? Well, you know, Brian, let me go back to your little uh your little statement.
Not only is Georgia 0 and2 maybe sleepwalking this year, Georgia is 1 and
11 against the spread their last 12 games as a favorite. Period. It doesn’t matter who they play as a favorite.
They’re one and 11. You know what that is? That is 8%. Now, this was an interesting trend and I
said, “How much does this really apply?” Because we’re only two games into the new season, but I looked and early in
the season this has been successful. Home dogs that have won at least seven
straight home games, obviously you can carry over a season, are 66 and 41, 62%
against the spread. And conference home dogs in that role are 64%.
Georgia, by the way, as an away favorite only 3-8 ATS their last 11. When I
looked at top 20 home dogs, they’ve gone
23 and 18, 56% against the spread. If they’re in the first two months of the
season, they’ve gone 60% against the spread. And if they’re a conference home
dog, they are 73% against the spread. So that is two top 20 teams, a conference
home dog, 73% ATS. And if you are one that bets money on the bets the money
line and you like Tennessee, listen to this stat and think about it for a minute
conference away dog, excuse me. In those 11 in those 22 games,
the straight up the dog is 111 straight up with an average line of plus 5.8. So
that means if you bet those 22 games, if you’re plus 5.8, 8. That translates to a
what minus minus 250 money line. 11 of
those 22 teams have won outright. I lean Tennessee. I’m concerned Georgia’s
offense, even though they sleptwalked, you still should do better than averaging 5.1 yards per carry against
Marshall and against Austin Pay. Uh I’m going to side with Ross here and back
the Volunteers as well. Okay. I’m gonna say Brian, I’m seeing a four and a half at
FanDuel as well. So, it’s three and a half across the board and four and a half at uh FanDuel. So,
okay. If you like Tennessee, that’s the place to go. FanDuel, I think the line is um going to, like I said, if you like
Georgia right now, uh I I think that you should bet them now because I think that I think it’s going to go to four and a
half pretty much across the board soon. Something we need to point out, two the top two the starting quarterbacks for
Tennessee are out of this game. So that’s something to watch again. The Georgia offense, which Ralph mentioned, has struggled has kind of, you know,
whatever the first two weeks, then they wake up and they take advantage of that. All right, next game on the list should
be a good one. Saturday night, it is Texas&M and game. Open the season
against one another uh last year. I had the first half under in that game. That was a winner. Uh I kind of like the over
though this year. Ross, uh what do you think here before the season? I did a special edition of the power five. I
said gave out some win totals. I said bet&m over eight and a half at plus 150. If they win Saturday night, I’m d I
think I’m dancing in the streets with that win total. I think that’s going to be looking pretty good. Uh but here’s
the problem. They’re two and 13 against the number under Elco, including 0 and2 this season. And they’re an underdog in
South. Yeah. I mean, and you look at Texas A&M, they’ve had struggles on the road the
last few seasons. Uh Notre Dame coming off that heartbreaking loss against Miami of Florida. They did have a byee
last week. Texas A&M, although they’re two and 0. I I’m just I They haven’t wowed me when I watched them. They beat
UTSA. Um and they also beat uh help me out guys the other game.
Yeah. So, I mean, it’s not like they won by 22 or 21 points in each game. Uh but
it they didn’t come clo close to covering and the opposition moved the ball on him. And Notre Dame here, keep
this in mind. Um under Marcus Freeman, they’re five and0 five-0 straight up in
ATS coming off a buy during regular season action. Uh 6-0 straight up in ATS
coming off a loss in their last six under Marcus Freeman. So remember Marcus
Freeman got off to a terrible start at Notre Dame losing his first two games and I think he’s somewhere around 33
and8 since then. Um and the Irish coming off a loss playing in their home opener
and uh unlike Texas A&M who could really if they lose a game they’re still alive.
Uh you’d be hardressed to make a a case for Notre Dame if they start out 0 and2 here as having any kind of decent chance
to make the college football playoff. So, I think the urgency lies with Notre Dame here, and I’m willing to lay a six
and a half at home against the Aaggies. Oh, all right. Ralph, I mentioned Elco
struggles at the old pay window. Marcus Freeman, Ross referenced it. He’s been quite good. He’s been quite profitable
back, uh, even though Notre Dame did drop that season opener as a road favorite down in Coral Gables. How are
you looking at this game? So, has&m been tested? Obviously not. They haven’t played one of the worst
schedules in the country, but it’s been pretty bad. And I found this very interesting, guys. There’s times that
even when I run data that I’m completely shocked. I ran the query, guys, that
says, “What happens in game three if you were a home favorite of 21 points or
more and you won each of those games by at least double digits and now you’re an
away dog?” It hasn’t happened very much, but those away dogs since 2016 are
actually 62% against the spread. So, I was going to say this. I think&m is an overrated 2-0 team based on who they
played. You know, yes, they have a dynamic offense with a couple incredible wide receivers. You know, Carver has
been amazing. Conpsion has been great. It it really allows Marcel Reed to
stretch the field. I do like Notre Dame’s defense, though. Yes, they
allowed 324 yards, but remember this is 324 yards to a Miami team that was one
of the top offensive teams that had a quarterback that was a transfer from Georgia. They were on the road in that
situation. So, I don’t think at the end of the year, I think that 324 yards that Notre Dame allowed is going to be an
actual positive number versus right now into the break it looks like a negative.
Uh, I did look up two other things that I wanted to share with you. Teams
off a ranked loss. So you were ranked opponent and you lost and now you have a
buy on de and you are off a buy. Those teams are only 49% at home. So it
doesn’t it doesn’t it doesn’t not a positive, not a negative, but I still want to share that data with you. So if
you have those type of thoughts, you know what the results are. But when that team is off a ranked loss game and they
had a buy, they are 70% to the under the last 36 games, 11 overs and 25 unders.
And that’s where I’m going to go here. Big game, national TV. I like these
teams having to feel each other out. I’m gonna go under first half in this. And
it’s actually one of my top three plays from the games we’re going to talk about. under first half, Notre Dame,
Texas A&M. Okay, there you go. Of course, guys, here each and every week of the Blitz, we’ve got you covered with the biggest
games on Saturday, but we also will leave no stone unturned. If you’re watching live, you can ask us about any
game you want to hear about, and many are doing that right now in the chat. I’m going to go to uh a question from
Adam because he wants to know about Georgia Tech and Clemson. I’m going to this game right now, Ross, because the
line movement, it’s a very similar story to what we talked about earlier just a few moments ago in the Georgia Tennessee
game. The market decided this number was too high at the open and money came in on the dog. We know Brent P at Georgia
Tech has been fantastic as an underdog. I believe they’ve covered six straight
at home against ranked opponents. I’m going to look that up in a minute after you’re done breaking this down. Maybe Ralph also has that one handy. But
Georgia Tech’s been very live in the home underdog role against top teams under key. What do you think? Clemson’s
not looked good at all the first two need to me. Yeah, they had to come back from a 16-
nothing deficit against Troy last week to win 2716.
They did have a strong second half. Maybe they can carry that momentum over. But, you know, I was high on Georgia
Tech to start the season. Although they just went seven and six a year ago, they were my pick to win the ACC at plus 700.
And this certainly, if I’m thinking Georgia Tech‘s going to win the ACC, they’re real live for me right here. Um,
and you’re looking at a Georgia Tech team, uh, that, you know, look, they didn’t even play with Hannes Hannes
King, their quarterback, who I think’s the best quarterback in the ACC when healthy. Um, and I know I’m going to get
a lot of argument there. Uh but having said that, he didn’t even play last week and they put up monster offensive
numbers. They were very good in their season opening win against Colorado 27
to 20. They were pretty much in control of that game from start to finish. Although it was just a sevenpoint
difference. Um and uh Hannes King uh again if he’s healthy this week uh I
like Georgia Tech even more. If he’s not, I still like Georgia Tech. I think Georgia Tech wins this game outright. Uh
Clemson again uh losing to LSU at home 17-10 and listless last week and now
they go on the road for the first time. Uh this is a huge game for Georgia Tech and I think they’ll be prepared and
ready uh to get the cover here at home. Yeah. And Ross, something else that the folks need to remember in case they
didn’t watch that game or had forgotten about at the Georgia Tech season opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech should have won that game by more because they
turned the ball over on their first three possessions. If they don’t to to turn the ball over three times and still
win, that says something. If you could because usually if if you if you turn the ball over three times, you’re not winning a football game. Georgia Tech
did against coach Prime and Colorado there in the opener. Ralph, I have do
have the trends right now in front of me. Under key Georgia Tech 9 and5 ATS against ranked opponents. They are a
perfect 646 as a conference dog of single digits.
in Miami last year. So, uh, will Mr. Key and those trends continue here, uh, on
Saturday? It’s a noon kickoff against Clemson. If Haynes King was 100% healthy and he practiced this entire week, I would have
been on Georgia Tech. Uh, he’s been limited in practice. They do expect him to play, but to me, I’m going to lay off
this. I do probably have some uh some fire starter in a uh Clemson National
Championship ticket that I bet. So, yeah. No, no team has been uh uh again,
losing to LSU is not a bad loss, but again, just just the vibes you get from this team after the Troy game. You know,
Troy may be better than we expect, and I like the way Troy’s played, but when you rush for 3.9 yards against Troy at home,
running the ball 31 times, only gaining 121 yards, that’s a concern for me. Can
the Georgia Tech defense stop them? Well, you know, they held Colorado to 305, but we know Colorado has their
struggles, and what do they say? Uh, if you have two quarterbacks playing, you don’t have a legitimate starter. Well,
how about if you have three, you know? So, you know, Colorado has their issues. The Gardener web game, obviously, Ross
had mentioned. To me, it’s Georgia Tech and the under. Not going to make my card with not being 100% positive on King.
Okay. Uh, we’ve got a lot of questions coming in on this Arkansas Miss game.
That game was in our rundown anyway. So, let’s go to it here. I see uh the main man Jay Buff. Thank you for the shout
out on my hair. I appreciate that. I, you know, always try to look my best here on the You sure? You sure it wasn’t me he was
talking about? Oh, I’m sorry. I apologize there. Okay. But, all right. So, Jaybuff, he really
likes uh these are actually two games that are on our rundown, guys. So, let’s uh we can hit them both. Arkansas, Old
Miss, Vandy, South Carolina. Couple games in the SEC. Yes, that SEC slate uh
getting underway. LSU Florida, too, by the way. We’ll be talking about that game. If you have a question, hit us up. But uh Ross, let’s go to Vandy, South
Carolina. I know you had a lot to say about this game elsewhere here uh this week on the Wager Talk YouTube channel.
Yeah, I mean, this game looks like a trap to me. You know, you’re looking at a number 11 ranked team in South
Carolina. And they’re just what, a three and a half point home favorite here or
four and a half, whatever they are, against an unranked Vanderbilt team who only got one vote, one vote in the AP
poll this week, you know, and that I got to scratch my head because right now to me when I look at these two teams and I
look at film on both of them, Vandy to me is the better team. I mean, South
Carolina 2 and 0. Deceiving. Why do I say that? They won 38-10 last week,
Ralph, over South Carolina State. But guess what? They scored three touchdowns by way of a punt return, a block punt,
and a fumble return. They only compiled 253 yards of total offense against an
FCS opponent. And and their week before they won against Virginia Tech 24 to11.
We now know that Virginia Tech is not a very good team and they benefited from a
punt return touchdown in that game as well and still uh did very little offensively. I mean they had all this
hype with uh Sellers at quarterback and they haven’t shown me squat offensively
in the first two games. Uh you look at Vanderbilt uh won last week 4420.
Uh they had a huge total yards advantage of 490 to 248. Um in against Virginia
Tech, a common opponent, same play team that South Carolina faced on a neutral
field. Vanderbilt went to Virginia Tech on the road and that game wasn’t even as
close as the final score may indicate. Uh that that’s how much Vanderbilt dominated that game. And uh look, here’s
the thing. They’ve lost 16 straight versus South Carolina over the last 16
meetings. You think that’s not big- time revenge? Because this is to me a much
improved program. Uh I like Diego Pavia at quarterback. Is he an NFL ready
quarterback? Not even close. He may make it in this uh Canadian Football League, but he’s not an NFL type of talent.
However, he’s a winner. Okay, he’s a winner. He knows how to get things done
at the proper time. And uh college football away underdogs of four and a half or less like Vanderbilt that are
coming off an away underdog upset win in which they scored 41 points or more. And
they’re facing a team like South Carolina who’s coming off a win resulted in those away underdogs going 9 and0
against the spread since 2003. Not only that, Ralph, those underdogs not only
covered all nine, they won eight of those nine games straight up. Give me the Vanderbilt Commodores, guys.
Oh, wow. Ross, he’s got a lot to say. I agree with you, Ross. I don’t know if Diego Pavia is a future Winnipeg blue
bomber or not, but I will take it a step further what you had to say about South Carolina. Right now, guys, there are
three teams. the AP top 25 poll. And I know there was a lot of controversy about that AP top 25 poll during the
week on social media. There are three teams that I think are wildly overrated. We can all write this down right now and
you can come back. If I’m wrong, you can make fun of me in the comments section or if you’re I’m right, then you can all tell me how great I am. South Carolina,
Iowa State, Illinois, all overrated in my opinion. I don’t think any of those
three teams end up to uh in the top 25 when the regular season is over. So, I
am with you, Ross. I think Vandy is live to go to Columbia here and pull the
outright upset. Ralph, do we make it three for three? Beating Kansas State and beating beating
Iowa is enough for me to get him in there. So, yes, uh, in that case, I totally agree with the other two. And,
you know, it’s not just the AP that’s a joke. And that’s why you can never look at ranked teams early in the season
because all they’re doing is basing on what happened last year. And if they win, they move up. they lose, they move
down. You know, I remember the, you know, when the UPI used to be big, that was the coaches poll. I remember
listening to Urban Meyer talk all the time and said, “I don’t even fill out my ballot. I don’t even see my ballot. I
give it to an assistant. He fills it in. He sends it in for me.” So, do not put stock in those. They are a joke. Um, you
know, there’s not there’s no reason for me to say anything, guys. I agree with Vanderbilt. The way they’ve played, they
should be there. I see South Carolina not being there. I think Vanderbilt is
the play, but I do like this, especially in the SEC. We see a team like
Vanderbilt who scored 45 against S Charleston Southern and uh and 42 against VTEC. When you’re scoring a lot
of points against weak non-conference foes and then you play your first conference opponent, your game plan
changes a ton. And even with that, Vanderbilt ran the ball 68 times in two
games, only passed the ball 48. They’re going to run the ball. South Carolina’s going to run the ball. They’ve ran for
73 times and only passed for 39 their first two games. I’m going to go first half under here again, guys. I know it
sounds like a broken record, but agree with the Vanderbilt side. First half under as well. Okay, there we go. Uh,
let’s stick in the SEC because, guys, the questions are rolling in in the chat. Jacob Hefner would like to know
what’s up with the line movement in Miss Arkansas. I was bummed to get the worst
of the number laying it with Miss. Ross, your thoughts on this one? My initial
thought was maybe to look at an over Arkansas. Uh they’ve put up some big numbers in the first two games. I
believe they’re top five in yards per play, points per game, yards per game, but look at who they played. It’s not exactly a uh a murders a rogue a murders
row of two first two opponents and then miss has a potential injury issue at quarterback. So interesting game here in
the SEC. Another one. Yeah, it it’s a game that I looked at up and down and uh couldn’t come up with a
decisive decision either way. U as far as that move goes on the line move. I I
think that Old Miss and I I’d be interested in hearing what you guys have to say. I think they’re a tad bit
overrated. I really do. Um they barely got by Kentucky last week on the road and Kucky’s not a very good team. I know
Kentucky beat them last year, but again they struggled to win that game and uh I
I I just don’t have a strong opinion here to offer uh the viewer uh in his
question. Maybe Ralph or Brian does. Ralph lines down to seven. Commenter
asked about the question there or about the asked about the line movement. Uh
any angle for you here on this one? It is I I would concur that miss a little overrated. Lane Keifin had to apologize
to the betters last week after the game uh when he gave up that late field goal not to cover the spread. And again, they only rush for 4.6 yards
per carry. That’s not a Lane Keifin team. They usually press that pace early in the season and do that. I do want to
comment, Brian. I I didn’t hear the the name of the person who left the note,
but my advice to you is this. If you like a game and a game has moved
two or three points, just don’t bet it. It’s okay. Don’t The worst thing to say is, “Oh my god, I took the worst of this
line.” There’s reasons you don’t bet games. And that’s one of them is because of a line move. So don’t fall in the
trap that you have to bet that game. If you got the worst of it, if it doesn’t come back, let it go and look how much
you save at the end of the year. Write down every win, write down every loss, and remember, for every dollar you save,
you’re saving an extra 10% juice. Um, I’m going to say that I actually think
Arkansas’s offense can move the ball here. I think they will be able to run against an Old Miss defense. So, if I
again, no real lean on the game here. I like Arkansas team total. So, if
anything, it’s a very light lean for me, but obviously if I like the Arkansas team total, that means I think they’re
going to get 30 points. So, that means they’re likely going to cover this game. So, by default, it puts me on the
Arkansas lean side. Ralph, with some very sage advice there, guys, about uh when you miss the best of
a number. Speaking of sage advice, the place to go, of course, is wageralk.com. And boy, do we have a special promotion
for you this weekend, our weekend warrior pass. This is good for any of
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weekend. Ross, big uh it’s a great way to get involved this weekend, Warrior Pass. Uh what are you doing this
weekend, man? Yeah, I mean I I my I I got a 5% best bet on Saturday for $35
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So, uh, NFL will be up tomorrow, but, uh, certainly that $49, that’s a steal,
Brian. It is. Uh, I will have a 5% play in the NFL odds Sunday. I know we’re of course
talking college here in this hour. I’ll talk more about what I’ve got going on my page, but I want my good friend Ralph
Michaels to talk about what he’s got going on this weekend before we get some more of your questions. I see the one
about Troy in Memphis. That’ll be up next. Uh, Brian, I am with you with an NFL 5%
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That is, as Ross mentioned earlier, a real value, a steal, dare I say. All right, let’s talk about this game here.
Adam wants to know about Memphis and Troy. You mentioned Clemson earlier.
Clemson played Troy last week. Troy was beating Clemson 16 to nothing. And Ross, they were probably feeling pretty good
about themselves, weren’t they, down in Troy, but they of course lost 27 to 16. So Adam’s question is, uh, do we like
Memphis to dominate Troy after that emotional roller coaster last week, or is Troy just getting going?
You know, Troy might be just that good. uh for a a Sunb Belt team and Memphis uh
was a favorite trendy pick I should say for a lot of people to come out of the group of five and they still may. Uh but
this looks like a tricky one to me guys. You know, I think Troy, if you look at how they played defensively against
Clemson last week, they just wore down because Clemson had more uh quality
depth uh in that game. And uh I think a lot of people are jumping aboard the
Troy bandwagon this week and that line moved from six to three and a half. Uh
again, that might be some sharp money because it came in early or might be an overreaction to what we saw in week one,
but this game is not going to get any of my money, Brian. And uh I I’d like to give uh Adam a definitive answer, but uh
I just think there’s more value to be found on the College Football on Saturday. Yeah, if you like Troy,
unfortunately you did miss the best of the number there. U Memphis Ralph, very interesting. They the final score says
they dominated their FCS opponent Chattanooga last week 45 to have a pick six though in that game. I always think
that’s important to note. Uh Ross earlier in talking about that South Carolina the first week talked about all
their non-offensive scores. So uh what do we think is Troy for real or is this a tough spot? You know, you’re up on a
team like Clemson 16 nothing. You think it’s going to be one of the big defining wins in program history and then you get kind of boat raised in the second half.
What do you have left emotionally in the tank because Memphis uh as Ross mentioned is one of the legit contenders
to nab that G5 playoff spot? Mentioned Brian, you mentioned the pick six. More importantly, they went to
Georgia State as that solid favorite. They only had a 401 to 389 yard edge. They were only a plus 12 yards overall.
So, I mean, that’s a very misleading final. They allowed 340 yards passing. Troy is a team that I really like this
year. Why? Because we have secondyear head coach Gerard Parker. Think about
Troy last year. They started the season 1 and eight. What do they do? They beat Coastal Carolina. They go to Georgia
Southern. They win. They lose that UL. Not a bad loss. Then they beat Southern Miss. Now you have a team in their
second year as a head coach. I think it’s easy to rally in your second year.
a coach that won four of the last five four three of the last four games after starting one and eight coming off and
winning uh the opener and then playing that well against Clemson. To me, I am sold on Troy at least for the next
couple weeks. We’ll see what happens. All right, there you go. Memphis and Troy. Hopefully that helped you there a
little bit. Uh we’re going to now go back to our rundown. We’re going to leave the chat for a little bit. Keep those questions coming, guys. Uh we are
going to be hitting LSU and Florida. Very big weekend in the SEC. Uh, but what other games do you want to know
about? There’s a just a random game you have a question about. You’re watching us right now live. Drop that question in
the chat. We will get to it. But I want to get to a very You talk about G5 contenders for that playoff spot. Ross,
I think you have to be talking about the USF Bulls right now who have beaten Boise State and they have beaten
Florida. Now they face Miami of Florida. Needless to say, now
as impressive as the non-con has been here so far for the Bulls that to get that playoff spot, they need to win the
American and that’s, you know, several months down the line. But, uh, I’ve got a a question for you here.
True or false? Does USF care more about winning this game or just keeping it
close? Because here’s the thing. If they can in fact win their conference down
the line and they just simply keep this game close against Miami, then yeah,
it’s going to be impossible to keep them out of the college football playoff uh come December. So, I asked that to you
because they’re getting a big number here. And if they’re down 20 late, I think they really care about
punching it in a touchdown and which would obviously get them under the number here because I think they want
the committee at the end of the season to look back and say, “Hey, USF only lost by such and such to Miami, or am I
crazy or am I overthinking things?” Yeah. No. Uh, you make good points. Uh,
but I do think that a team that knocks off a nationally ranked team at the time, Boise State, and then another
nationally ranked team at Florida, uh, is not going to just hope they’re keeping it close. You know, they they
really I I truly believe they believe they could win this game. And, um, talk
about a group of five contender right now, uh, to get to the playoffs. Whoever wins that American to me is going to be
the group of five contender. I mean, that’s a better conference than people realize right now. Navyy’s also pretty
good, although they lack the uh overall depth and quality depth and defense as
uh some of the top contenders in that conference do. Uh but, um here’s what
scares me, Brian. Miami of Florida, they’re not going to catch them by surprise. Okay? Uh they’re not going to
be Miami of Florida is not going to take this game lightly. Miami of Florida is not going to waste a win over Notre Dame
in their season opener. They’re a very talented team. And it also strikes me
that this game opened at 15 and a half and very quickly, very quickly, right
after it opened, shot up to 17. Sharp money to me. Um, if I I’m not going to
use this game. Um, I do like the points you make, Brian, but I I I truly believe
that South Florida wants to win this game and believes they could. Now, wanting to do so, uh, and doing it are
two different things. I have a slight slight lean, Ralph, toward Miami here,
uh, because of that early line move. just, you know, you would think that a double-digit underdog that just pulled
off two upsets in a row against quality competition and people would jump all
over that, but that wasn’t the case. And to me, that move is sharp money. That’s
not public money. So, I think Miami, there’s no way that Miami wants to uh
contend for a national championship and lose to their little brother in South
Florida. And that’s basically how they look at things. So, uh, it’s it’s a tough call, but if I you put the
proverbial gun to my head, I would lay the points with Miami. Okay. What do you say, Ralph? It’s the third straight week facing a ranked
opponent for USF. Well, you know, Brian, I was on USF against Boise. We talked about Byron
Brown, how good he was before he got injured and he came back and he looks to be the same player. But um when you
asked your question about do they want to keep it close, there’s no other game on the board more
than this one that sets it up for a back door cover. USF has South Carolina State
at home on deck, followed by Charlotte at deck. Miami has big brother Florida at home
and then they go to Florida State, the other instate rival. So you’re talking about them. They How many times do you
play four instate teams in a row? Bthoon, Cookman, USF, Florida, and Florida State. So to me, the situation
clearly screams USF with no one on deck. I could see Florida resting some starters before they host Florida next
week if they’re up by that formentioned, you said three or four touchdowns into the fourth quarter. I actually was close
to using USF, but again, trends are either to help you make a bet or to keep
you off a bet. And these trends are keeping me off USF. So guys, I’m gonna
put you on the spot real quick. I need a real quick answer from you. How many times since 2008, so we’re talking what,
16 years, has a college football team won back-to-back games as a dog? It sounds
easy, the first two games of the season as a dog. I was shocked how low this number was.
Yeah. Um, I would have thought that it would be not real though, but um, now
that you mentioned that, Ralph engage, I’d love to play poker with you because you just showed your hand for crying out
loud. I’ve seen 14 14 teams 14 teams
since 2008 have went back-to-back games as a dog. Next week, they’ve gone six and seven. But then I went and did this.
How many teams were an away dog and one as a dog of
three or more? and then one as a dog of 14 or more like USF did. So, back-to-back wins any time in the
season, not through the first weeks of the season. The next game, it’s only happened uh 30 times since 2018. The
next week, they are 9 and 21 against the spread, that is 30%. And if they’re a double- digit dog, they are 2 and4
against the spread. So, some serious numbers for teams playing that third straight underdog role. And
while I like USF and I would still give out USF as an opinion, this is a
situation where those trends to me that make total sense are keeping me off this game.
Okay, so there you go. Battle of Florida there uh a little bit uh for both sides. And remember Ross, I think we mentioned
this Ralph, too. The first time we talked about Miami, I believe is when we were breaking on that Miami Northern
name game. there three of us gets late and the game is close, Mario Crystal
Ball will often do the wrong thing. So, we also have to college that certainly. All right. Uh guys, we uh there there’s
some weekday college football action of course this week. We’ve got a question from Colin Gregory on a f little Friday
night lights here. Coach Prime in Colorado. They’re going uh looks like they’ve made a quarterback decision
there. They’re going with the guy who was the original third stringer against a Houston team that I bet over six and a half wins uh to go uh before the start
of the season. I thought this Houston team was going to be improved in a wideopen Big 12. I expect Houston to win
this game at home Friday night. Ross, am I crazy?
No, you’re not crazy. Uh and again, this is a tough call for me. I mean, this game opened with Houston minus four,
quickly moved to six, and now there’s been a lot of buyback, Brian. I mean, down to four and a half pretty much
across the board uh in this game. and and yeah, I mean, I looked at this line
and it jumped right out at me and I it also jumped right out at me was the early move because initially my my
initial thought was Colorado might be a nice dog in this spot, but with the quarterback change and uh it’s not like
Colorado has looked very impressive to start the season. This isn’t the Colorado team from a season ago. Um
they’re talented, but not quite as talented as that team. And uh yeah, I would have a lean toward Houston in this
spot and agree with you, Brian. Yeah, it’s Ryan Stal getting the start for Colorado. We mentioned earlier when
we were talking about the Colorado Georgia Tech game uh that opened the season, uh Ross, Colorado could not beat
Georgia Tech despite that lopsided turnover margin. That doesn’t speak well of them. Now it’s a different quarterback getting the uh start here.
But Houston, Ralph H quite even last year when this team struggled, Houston
has a very solid defense and I like the coaching staff. I don’t know. I think this is a team on the ascent uh in the
Big 12. Have a secondear head coach in Willie
Fritz, you know, coming back and we’ve seen the Houston improvement and I’m a big fan of that. You know, second and
third year head coaches that continue to show the improvement with their squads. Um, I’m going to make it simple. You
know, this Colorado team doesn’t rely on the pass because they don’t have a quarterback like Shadore. But let me let
me The last two road games, the first two road games of last year with Shadore. At Nebraska, they threw for 40
times, ran 16. Against Colorado State, they threw the ball 49 times and ran 19.
Now, when you look against Georgia Tech, they ran the ball more than they passed. So, this is a Colorado team whose
offense is going to be completely different this year, is not going to be as dynamic, is going to run fewer plays,
is going to have a massive runto pass ratio, or at least a runheavy pass ratio
completely compared to last year, and I do like the Houston defense as well. Houston and the under for me.
Okay. Uh, looking at the chat here, Lucky Larry asked about the Notre Dame Texas. Yes, we did talk about this one
uh earlier, Larry. Uh maybe if we’ve got some time at the end, we’ll come back to it. Some quick thoughts. Nice time for me to remind you guys, click that
subscribe button down below. That way you’ll be instantly notified when the show goes live each and every Thursday
at 1 p.m. Eastern. But if we do have some time, Larry, we can just kind of do a a cliffnotes version of our thoughts on Notre Dame and Texas A&M. But I want
to get to another game here that Godfather J6 asked about. This is uh Bama and
Wisconsin. Alabama. I’ll tell you what, Ross. Uh Luke Fickle
uh he needs to get uh in gear otherwise it uh he may be uh selling his home in
Madison because this Wisconsin offense looks absolutely atrocious. Now Kayn
Dbor, everyone was ready to ride this guy out of town in Tuscaloosa, including that woman who uh I don’t know if you
guys saw this clip on social media. She said if she won the Alabama state lottery, the first thing she would do with her money was pay the buyout for
Kayn Dbor and run him out of town. I think that is an interesting use of winning the lottery. But I digress. Uh
Alabama killed LA Monroe last week. What do we think Alabama does here against
Wisconsin? They killed him last year. I remember watching that game. Uh maybe I don’t know. We liked Alabama Ross at the
start of the season. Then they go out and they lose to Florida State who might actually be a very very good team. So uh
kind of an interesting evaluation of the Crimson Tide right now where they’re at. this guy’s got to be related to me with
a a you know a handle named Godfather. You know it’s again I thought that Alabama woman’s going to take all the
money if she won the lottery and hire Ralph Michaels as a head coach at Alabama because uh anyway uh on a
serious note I think Wisconsin’s a very deceiving 2 and 0. They don’t don’t have
a lot coming back from a season ago. Uh Luke Fickle to me has not been getting
the job done at Wisconsin. It’s tough to get the NIL money there. And I think
Alabama, everybody threw them under the bus after that season opening loss uh to
Florida State. But maybe Florida State is just that damn good, Ralph. You know,
uh I my lean here is definitely the way the Crimson tied. I think they’re they
cover the spread by the half and then win going away. Um, I just don’t think Wisconsin has that type of offense. They
never had under Luke Fickle, uh, where they’re built to come from behind. So, I
think it could snowball on them very easily if they fall behind, uh, quickly
and I think that’s what will occur and I like Alabama to win big here. Yeah, the Wisconsin defense, is that
okay, Ralph? Obviously, they’ve played some some weak teams. Miami of Ohio. My god, they’re turn turn your eyes away
when they’re on offense, everybody. But uh the offense again for Wisconsin has
not been up to snuff and I concur with Ross the boss there that if Wisconsin falls behind I I don’t know
how they come from behind. So you’ve been giving out a few first half thoughts so far on the program. Ralph,
is this a situation where you would lay it with Alabama in the first half or how would you approach this game?
We remember they were the run of the century. I mean couple years ago, what did they go 14-1 on first halves again?
new head new head coach Kaylin Dbor and you know you might think well Bama has
George on deck but again there’s a by-week on deck so it’s not quite the same situation I think Bama uses this as
a as a prep game to show Georgia I think they’re going to try running the ball um
I am not impressed again I agree with what Ross said and what you said Brian that the Florida State loss may be a
fine loss in a couple more weeks I mean they were only outgainained 382 to 341 yes they lost lost by 14 the way the
game played out. But you can’t overreact to those week one games. Um I think I I
think Alabama is going to try to run the ball. I don’t think they need to pass it much. I think they need to work on that.
I think that Wisconsin’s rush D has always been decent. I don’t know how they’re going to fare here. Again,
holding Miami to 1.5 and Middle Tennessee to 1.2 2 doesn’t show you anything, but I actually like uh if I
had to play here, I would play this actually full game total because if they have some trick plays, Wisconsin might
try to use them early. You know, Fickle came out and said, um,
we have this Alabama game circled all summer long. Who the heck circles a road
game against a non-conference foe? I’ve never heard that of a Big 10 coach to even waste his time saying that. So
maybe he does have some sort of scheme that he’s going to try some fluke things early and they didn’t shoot. Maybe and
again maybe since they won 17 nothing and 42 to 10. Maybe we just think
Wisconsin’s offense is bad because he’s hitting the playbook until he starts to play Alabama. That’s a possibility.
That’s something we don’t know. I think the points are too high for Alabama on the road in this situation. But again, I
don’t want to be on Wisconsin either. But call me a pass on this one.
Okay. Uh something else we need to note here. You know, we talk about the Wisconsin offensive from Billy Edwards Jr. uh doesn’t sound like he’s going to
play in this game. So the task got a little bit tougher for Luke Fickle and
the team. Hey Brian, just to corre I mean again was an oversight by Ralph, but Alabama’s
at home in this game, Ralph, not on the road. My apologies. Thank you. That’s called Ross was making fun of my age before the
show started, guys. the green. Yeah, I I thought you were going to tell me that you Monroe had their game schedu
or circled against Yeah, good. Good catch there, Ross. Um,
all right. There the the SEC seems to be the theme here. We’ve talked about Alabama, obviously, whether or not they
can still be a force in this conference. Remains to be seen, but we’re going to learn something here uh in the SEC
Saturday night when this is the final game on our scheduled rundown. Guys, of course, we always are going to talk about the big games each and every week
here on the Blitz. If there’s a game that we have not mentioned that you want our opinion on, you only have a few
minutes left to get those questions in, guys. So, do that right now if you’re watching live in the chat. But we’re going to go to LSU and Florida.
Ross, is there some It’s interesting. There’s ways to look at there’s different ways to look at this, right?
Florida bad loss to South Florida last week. Look, you should never spit on
opponent. Obviously, the fact that you would do it a couple days after it made national headlines in an NFL game was really stupid, I thought. Then it cost
your game boy. It cost you the game. Florida and Ross said, you know, I’m going to do it again here. The seat, it’s getting a little hot in Gainesville
for uh down there because if Florida loses here and then as Ralph mentions uh
mentioned earlier, they’ve got Miami, Florida, Billy Napier might have to get that indeed.com uh
resume open again. Okay. Is there any way Napier survives to October the 1st at LSU, at Miami of
Florida, home against Texas, at Texas A&M? No chance. That is not an easy schedule. No, no chance he is around after October
1st. Well, if he pulls an upset here, Ross, I guess, you know, he could have some job
security for the time being. What do you think? Because to me, when I look at a team like Florida, who no one was expecting to lose last week to us, they
were a double- digit favorite. Obviously, look, we we respect USF on the program. We talked about that earlier, but people thought Florida was
going to win that game. To me, my opinion is always there’s some value now on the underdog. That’s what the market
seems. The market thinks this number opened a little bit too high. And as impressive as LSU looked against Clemson
in the opener, boy, did they just sleepwalk their way to a win over Louisiana Tech last week. Hey, Ross, let me jump in here and I’m
going to give people an angle and then I’m going to have them think of the angle after you get done. I’ll share the angle with them. So, Brian, this is sort
of something without you telling me this. What’s the ATS record for teams
after they lost as a home favorite of 14 or more? I’ll get you those ATS numbers
after Ross finishes his breakdown. Okay. Yeah. And I can almost assure you that Ralph is going to come up with an angle
that supports the underdog because I do same type of technical handicapping. And
I don’t mean any disrespect by any means with Ralph uh because but uh we think alike in that regard. So, I think um I
think Ralph’s going to mention that uh there’s an angle that supports the uh underdog in this situation coming off a
uh favorite loss of minus4 and a half or greater. Um here’s the thing with me.
LSU was listless last week. Brian, you mentioned that. Um I I just think that I
got to give them a pass. They come off their big win against Clemson on the road. Uh, and you know, you you
got uh Louisiana Tech in between the game against Clemson and the showdown
with Florida, who at at the time was a nationally ranked team when they faced them when they played last week. Uh, so
I to me again, I’m going to stick with my guns here. I think that LSU is the
best team in the country. I said that before the season started. I gave him out on the college football betting
preview show with Teddy. I gave him out at plus400 to win the national title. Now they’re around plus 800 or so. Um is
a singledigit favorite. Now if they were in the double digits of a touchdown or more, that’s one thing, but as a
singledigit favorite in this situation and uh Billy Napier, he’s on the hot
seat. Uh, it doesn’t look like the players really have his back the way they played last week against South
Florida. Um, I’m going to lay the points here with LSU. I know the early money came in on Florida, but I just think LSU
is that much better, and I think the seat’s going to get scalding hot after this week, Ralph.
All right, Ralph. So, give us the trend here. I know you you teased the trend. You heard what Ross had to say. He’s
sticking with the Bayou Bengals, LSU, Ghost Gaming Sport. uh give us the try.
Well, Ross, this isn’t a wow number, but again, I want to share it just so people know. I had the exact same thought as
you, Ross. I was expecting it to be a a fairly at least a profitable number.
In the last 107 games where a team lost as a favorite of 14 or more, they are 51
and 56, 48% against the spread the next game. So again, it it’s to me it’s as
important to know a trend that you had a thought in your mind and you know now that thought is should be thrown out
because it’s not relative either way. Um you know with Lagway I don’t know if
there’s legitimate reports that he’s banged up or just the rumor mills but that’s an issue here. Um I this is
another game where I love playing these conference games weeks two or three like this when you’re matching up. Now, LSU
did play some competition and yes, they were on the road at Death Valley, but they only had a uh you know, they only
had a 3 they only had 354 yards and they only rushed for 3.5 yards per carry. The
Florida defense against USF, they did allow 391 391 yards and they have been
sacked against each of their first two opponents, which getting a sack against Long Island and only rushing for 5.3 is
pretty scary. So, it’s going to be under for me again in this one. And something I want to mention and I am remiss for
not having this data for you. Big ATS difference in LSU Death Valley playing a
night game and a day game with this being 7:30 p.m. So next time LSU has a
night game, I’ll make sure I have those numbers for you here on the Blitz. But again, it it’s um Death Valley at night
games and Penn State white outs are my two highest rated home home uh home
field edges in all of college football. Yeah, something tells me this will not be the last night game for LSU, LSU home
game this season. I’m with you. I think they’re a strong contender right now with the question marks we’re seeing at quarterback with Georgia and Texas and
Alabama. I think LSU is very live to win the SEC. Uh we have one question coming in on a
another Friday night game from Godfather J 6 has chimed in again. He wants our thoughts on Kansas State, Arizona. We’ll
get to that in just a moment. I’m gonna just take my opportunity since this is a Friday game to promote what I’ve got
going on. Again, one more time, wp.buzzbe. We’ve got that weekend warrior pass. So,
if you want to get down, you get Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And remember, we’re throwing in Monday. Ross mentioned it’s
a double header this week on Monday. Remember, you got Bucks, Texans, Raiders, and hosting the Chargers. I
will have a 5% NFL play on Sunday. We will have uh at least three college
plays on Saturday. I know we’re going to we’re locked and loaded with three NFL plays on Sunday. And I might be playing
both Monday Night Football games, guys, in the NFL. So, look, $49. You can’t beat that. The I’ll let these guys um
after they’re done giving their breakdowns on Kansas State, Arizona reminds you what they’ve got cooking this weekend as well. Ross, I I’ll give
you I’ll throw it to you now. The floor is yours. Kansas State Arizona. And remind the people what you have going on
this weekend at wageralk.com. Yeah, I mean I can’t pull the trigger on Kansas
State. I thought that they would wake up last week against Army at home. Um
nothing embarrassing about losing by three on the road against a nationally ranked opponent in Iowa State. But then
the following week you come back. Yes, you’re weary from travel, but you’re playing an FCS opponent in North Dakota
and you need a lastm minute touchdown to win at home 38-35. Then you play Army as a 17-point
favorite. An Army team that lost to Ralph’s alma mater, Tarlton State in
their season opener. Maybe it wasn’t Ralph Alma matter. He’ll let us know, I’m sure. But, you know, and they they
laid an egg and they lose the game outright. Not only not covered, but they lose the game outright. Arizona’s got a
little bit of momentum after um a terrible year last year. They win their
first two games. Yes. albeit against less than imposing opposition. But I
think that Arizona State with the momentum and playing at home against a Kansas State team that right now I’m not
sure what you’re going to get from. You know, I I I can’t pull the trigle on Kansas State. Probably a game I’m going
to pass on. Uh but uh if you again, the proverbial gun to my head pick would be
on Arizona in this one. Ralph, uh, those who have followed me and have been on
board with me, uh, for any length of time before know that I am the ultimate buy low guy. I love to buy low on teams,
and this would appear to be a buy low spot on Kansas State, but I’m with Ross. I don’t think I could trust this team.
My power ratings say, uh, no, I mean, they’re back up to a road favorite here. I I don’t want to play them. I I know
they hammered Arizona last year in Manhattan, the Little Apple, but this game is out in Tucson late Friday start.
your thoughts on this one? My biggest power rating difference
and that’s just because I haven’t lowered Kansas State enough. You know, I mean, Kansas State is by far my biggest dropper in the power ratings this year.
So, I cannot back him. I understand your buy, you know, buy high by low situations, but it’s one thing to buy
low because a team lost but played okay. It’s another to get outgainained by 86
yards against Army and only rush for 74 yards against an Army team that has a
very small Dline against an opponent. I just don’t like the Arizona State side either. So, no opinion for me. I can’t
get I can’t get to either side on this. And just a reminder again, weekend warrior 49 Bucks a 5% NFL play loaded
for Sunday now. All of Saturday, all of Sunday, and Monday football included. A great offer.
Yeah, Arizona’s two and0 against the number so far this year. Um, guys, here’s a stat. This, uh, you know, I I
like you guys, I always pour over these box scores each and every week. This was the most astounding stat from last week
in college football. Okay, Kansas State second half time of possession against Army.
Three minutes. They had the ball for three minutes and a half. Tough to win when you only have
the ball for three minutes. Ross, yeah, I just wonder if uh Avery Johnson’s father and his brother got in
a fight after that game, man. after playing that way. Holy cow. Especially when the brother didn’t get
on the field for only three month minutes. You know, nothing unusual, Brian. You know, when you play Army to
lose time possession, but you know, you look at Army and it’s not like they racked up a ton of offense. They were less than 300 yards
on the game themselves. So, yeah. I mean, what what’s going on, Ralph, with Kansas?
You know, it’s one thing to say Kansas had three minutes of possession. It’s another to be a Kansas State team and
allow Army to run 82 plays against you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Well, to to
Ross’ point, Army’s a team they’re going to run that play clocked down. I mean, they their goal is to eat that time, but
even by an Army opponent standardized three minutes of time of possession is quite ridiculous. Uh we’ve been talking
about this weekend warrior pass uh several times. I should have mentioned uh when I talked about the 5% play that I’ve got this weekend. Six and two last
week for me in football. Three in one college, three-1 NFL. We hit 66% last year in September, guys, uh, in NFL and
college combined. So, no surprise that I’m off to a 75% start this year. Uh, Mr. Benjamin, I believe you had
something to say. No, I was just giving you a thumbs up. Uh, again, yeah, I I didn’t mention
again to review uh, four picks in college football on Saturday, including the 5% uh, best bet. You know, tough
week for me in the NFL, folks. I’m going to bounce back. I mean, look, I had the over on the Thursday night game, the
Dallas and and Philadelphia game, you know, 41 at the half and ends up 44.
Um, I had uh Denver minus 8 and a half. They win by eight and they pass up a
field goal opportunity with less than a minute to go on fourth down. um you know field goal opportunity would
have been from 50 something yards Ralph but you know you’re in field goal range when you enter the stadium in Denver you
know so uh couple tough losses there and then the Monday night game I lost with Chicago so I tell it the way it is you
know I I brag about my college football record but you know the NFL didn’t go as well and uh we’re transparent here folks
um you know we’re not making up stories hey Ross if uh James Franklin was at
Denver coaching they would have tried tried that field goal. Oh, there’s no doubt. Would have tried a fake field goal.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Um, just real real quick here
if you guys did you guys want to reiterate your thoughts on Notre Dame Texas&M because we had a followup on that. Somebody tuned into the show. Did
we want to give under first half for me? But I think there was some good information. Just rewind back and go view it again. I
mean, it’s only a couple minutes. So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Notre Dame coming off a loss with Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame coming off a
by-week. Uh, you know, again, Notre Dame coming Notre Dame beating Texas A&M on
the road last year. I know there’s a revenge factor, but there’s something to be said about that Notre Dame defense,
which is very experienced and held Texas A&M in check last year. I don’t see why the same thing doesn’t occur here.
All right, Colin Gregory, thank you for your kind words. I concur. It was a great show indeed. And if you thought it
was a great show, you can be like Colin and just tell us it was a great show. or you can smash that like button there
right below. We always appreciate your support here on the Blitz. We are live,
of course, every Thursday, 1 p.m. Eastern on the Wager Talk YouTube channel immediately following Andy Lang
and Wager Talk Today, a show that I know we all appear on regularly as well. All
right, that is going to do it. Remember to get your weekend warrior pass.
We’re all locked and loaded for a big weekend of football. Ross, Ralph, and myself. Remember, it’s going to be the three of us each and every week here on
the Blitz. We like each other so much, we decided to be your permanent team. So, on that note, guys, till next time,
let’s cash some tickets.
Urban City Podcast Group
