WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | MLB Predictions & Picks Today | UFC 317 Best Bets | June 26
Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. This is wager talk today and I am your host Andy Lang. We got a loaded Thursday on deck.
MLB, WNBA, UFC and more. The board is deep. We’re ready to break down the best angles and the sharpest plays.
Let’s get locked in. We did not have a winner in the Dodgers Rockies. Try and guess the winner and correct score contest last night.
It’s okay. We’re going to have another game for you guys. We’re going to give away some swag.
Yeah, just a bummer. Eight to one. The Rockies did not come through.
We had some people pick the Dodgers, but we’re going to pick a game, put in the comment section after the show, who’s going to win and what’s the correct score. Darn it, we’re going to give away some swag today. So let’s get started.
We got to bring in Gianni. While you guys are watching, please hit that like button. Please, please, please.
It really helps the algorithm. So Gianni, hope you enjoyed your day off. You were very sorely missed.
I tried to do the steam report and it was truly terrible. Please don’t leave us. I did my best, but it was certainly not as good as yours.
There was a lot of us and ums. So we missed you, Gianni. How are you, sir? Good, man.
It was real busy because it’s international fight week here in Las Vegas. And it’s the one week I have some responsibilities and obligations with the UFC. Like even tomorrow morning, I’ll find out my call time later today, but yesterday’s call time was like 645 in the morning.
I had to be at the apex. Tomorrow I’m going to have to be at the UFC expo because there’s that big exhibition for the whole day. So you got to go there and do a couple of interviews, that kind of stuff about the 317 card.
So it’s just a real busy week because of it. And it all culminates on Saturday with that big 317 card. I’m really excited about that.
I released two more premiums yesterday for subscribers. We’re coming off a sweep on the NBA draft. I told you guys every place a 4% or higher because these is as strong positions as possible.
There’s only one left. It’s in the NHL draft. I’m going to give that to you right now.
4% best bet, NHL draft, Joshua Ravensbergen, Joshua Ravensbergen over 22 and a half. We laid minus 132. It’s good up to minus 150.
I believe I wrote from the analysis six out of 10 times is the break even. I think even there it’s at plus CB. As long as you get 150 or better, you’re golden.
That’s Joshua Ravensbergen over 22 and a half. That’s the draft position left in the NHL. Only one of those to go.
Also season win totals. Two of them are out in the NFL, 4% play and 5% play. So it’s a busy time, man.
Like I said, it’s a bit of busy week for me because everything going on with the UFC and we also have PFL coming up. I gave out a 4% in PFL subscribers. You guys should have already gotten that play as well.
I love that position. I know it’s a little chalky around minus one 70, but I’d be comfortable laying two 2230 in that spot, which is why it’s a 4% play. So, uh, yeah, other than that, it’s a one WNBA play for today, Las Vegas, whenever it’s dropped down to that minus seven, minus seven and a half range, it’s been picked up.
So Las Vegas at seven, seven and a half seems to be a good bet in WNBA. Otherwise, Andy, it’s all major league baseball little early, but we got some sides and totals. If you’re ready.
I have a feeling you and I are on the exact same side on your 4% PFL play. You mentioned the odds and I was like, I think I have a strong position on that play as well. So, uh, yeah, PFL card.
I’m loving the PFL card. I think it sets up very, very nice. I think it’s pretty, uh, clear cut UFC gets a little, little muddier there.
Um, Gianni, I actually think this is going to be some, uh, some upsets here on the UFC card. Have you looked at any of these, uh, these dogs? I think there’s some good ones out there. Well, we saw it, we saw it last week.
I mean, the, uh, the, the, the dogs did great. I think it was six and six as far as favorites and dogs go. Um, which was coming because the favorites were way ahead going into that event.
Favorites were at like 67, 68%. And they’re usually around that 65% range. In fact, over the last decade, last 10 years, um, favorites are about 65%.
Dogs are about 35%. It’s about 1%, no contests. Um, and draws about one, one and a half percent at most.
Um, so that the favorites, the favorites were, were nicely ahead and you saw the dogs starting to catch up over the last two events. Now we’re back to where we should be. Uh, pretty much dogs are at 32.8% through 21 events.
Favorites are at 66.4%. So they’re right around, right around, um, their historical average over the last decade. Um, like I always tell betters, here’s how you have to look at a UFC card. It’s, it’s, there’s about 12, 13 fights on that card.
We know favorites went about 67%, two out of three times, 65, 66%, right around that, right around that rate. So you got to factor in, there’s going to be three or four dogs in every card. So if you’re going to be that better, that parlay and favorites, cause I know a lot of MMA betters like the parlay, those favorites don’t put more than five or six fighters on that card.
What, what usually is going to end up happening is you’re going to have an eight fighter, nine fighter parlay. You’re going to hit seven of them, eight of them, but one of those dogs going to stick their neck out and ruin your entire, um, bet. If you’re betting for entertainment, looking to have fun with it and throwing in those parlays and MMA, I urge you stick to six or less.
If it, if you look at your ticket and it’s all favorites, you don’t want to have more than six favorites on that ticket because now you’re going into, you know, uh, hoping that it’s one of those cards where, you know, favorites just sweep the card and it’s happened. Don’t get me wrong. Um, but again, more times than not, you want to average that.
It’s going to go like that. 12 fights, eight favorites, four dogs. You want to try to pick five or six of them if you’re going to tie in a favorite ticket.
Um, because I never understood why Andy, why the betters that tie in those parlays and MMA, why don’t they look for the two or three dogs on the card and tie those up instead? Like you don’t have to go eight, no, nine and no, you have to hit two or three bets. And those plus money parlays pay so well. You put two or three plus two hundreds in a parlay and you’re getting back a really nice ticket.
You don’t have to hit nine, 10 bets. And I think that’s the mistake. A lot of recreational betters make when they, when they parlay MMA, they look the parlay, what they think is the locks.
These guys can’t lose. Instead of looking at maybe tying two or three dogs, tie that ticket together and make a nice score that way. Cause every card you’re going to get those three or four dogs that get the money.
Like I said, last week it was six, six and six. Yeah. Um, yeah, I was looking at some, um, we have one of my, uh, my favorite, favorite things is a, um, uh, a part-time fighter.
Uh, we have a guy in Heinz who is, uh, his Instagram literally says engineer by day fighter by night, uh, the spells doom normally. And yet I actually think he might be a live dog. Uh, his opponent absolutely cannot stuff, take downs.
He cannot wrestle. Uh, so I was, I was interested in your take. When you have these fighters, I love betting against these, these part-time fighters.
Like, Oh, I’m a photographer and in part-time UFC is like, give me a break. You’re coming in and fighting a killer here. We saw that not, not, not, not to bring it up, but we saw that with Peyton Talbot where he got so much hype.
But I remember from the contender series, I watched his interview and he was talking about how he took up MMA as intramural sport in college. It was something to do. And then he kind of liked it and there was a gym in the area.
So he went to the gym to get in shape. And next thing you know, he’s fighting on the contender series, knocks the guy out and gets a UFC contract. Like he didn’t have, he, it’s not like he went through, like you see usually the stages of progression.
They wrestle as young kids, then they get into jujitsu and they get into more striking and kickboxing. And then they have the whole package and they’re martial artists. This guy just started at like 20 years old.
So I know sharp betters that knew his story. We’re looking for spots to fade him. And it just happened to come up against Barcellos where he was like a minus 1100 favorite.
And we know now that line was just so out of whack. It made absolutely zero sense at all. And you know, he got butchered and there are fighters like that in mixed martial arts where they don’t make the kind of money where it can be their only profession.
And I’m all for fading those guys, but you know how hard it is just to be a winning sports better. We know that one out of every 200 betters are profitable. That’s it.
That’s it. Well, there’s even less fighters, professional fighters that are going to make it to the UFC. So if you’re going to make it to the UFC, you have to be as elite as it comes as a mixed martial artist.
But then if you’re at that level and you’re not 100% dedicated to it, like your opponent is, that’s the fighters I want to pay. I’m so for that. Like, I get it.
They got to make their living and support their families. But it’s not something you can’t be like where you could not be all in in and think you’re going to progress up those rankings. It’s just not going to happen.
So I love fading those fighters that love them because they’re just not making the money. I saw an interview with him. He’s like, yeah, I got my union logo behind me.
They sponsor me. And I was like, oh, my gosh, oh, my gosh, this guy’s fighting the UFC. Amazing.
So before we let you go, can you give us just a little MLB steam report on anything? I know we got a lot of day games here. Absolutely. Yeah, we got Steve Merrill coming up to talk Braves and Mets.
Kyle Anthony is going to join us to go over some specific plays in the main and coming for UFC 317. We will play sell me and then we’ll talk with Nick Parsons about CFL and the team today. We’re breaking down as the Carolina Panthers over under six and a half.
Myself and Dan will do that at the end. What are you seeing in MLB? Anything of note? OK, and real quickly, John would just share and tomorrow our guy blocks going to take care of the steam if I’m not here. So don’t worry about covered.
But Johnny Wood says that play is now twenty six and a half on the draft prop. It’s up to you whether you still want to bet at what your risk tolerance is. This is a perfect example of placing a good bet and not being able to control the results.
I talk about it all the time. That’s the job. That’s the job.
Last week I gave out a five percent play on Jamal Hill. OK, I gave him out to my subscribers that even money and even money and said he’s good for that kind of bet up to about minus one fifteen. I think minus one twenty.
Well, he went off at minus one forty minus one forty five. The job. That’s the job.
Like I placed a great bet. It looked like a terrible bet when the fight took place. Obviously, you don’t know what’s going to happen.
You can’t control that part. But what you can’t control is placing good bets. And the market’s going to let you know whether you did that by what the closing line is.
So as much like negativity as I got on the Hill fight as a professional sports better, I feel like I did the job like I was a perfect bet. You need to bet five percent if you’re getting down to even money and it closes minus one forty. That’s exactly what value means.
That’s exactly why I made such a big bet of five percent, because I did expect to have a much better ticket in my pocket than what it closes at. So if I have an even money bet in my pocket and it closed at minus one forty minus one fifty, my break even fifty percent. The market’s break even close to 60 percent.
Dude, that’s a 10 percent implied win probability edge that you can’t get better than that. You can’t place a better bet, but you’re still going to lose some of those. Don’t let that shatter your your your goal.
Like don’t let that shake your foundation of is this really what I’m supposed to be doing, because that’s absolutely what you’re supposed to be doing. You can’t control the outcome. You can’t control how the fighter is going to feel that day.
You can’t control the rep. You can’t control the judges. You can’t control his corner.
What instructions are going to give you? You can’t control none of that. But you can’t control whether you’re placing good bets. And the market’s going to let you know that.
So remember that, because a lot of these theme plays I’m giving out in Major League Baseball, the lines moved already. Your job is to determine whether they’re still E.V. there to piggyback it or now whether we pushed it so far in one direction. Now, fading the sharp side is actually giving you more value.
Like that’s where the the specialty comes in. And you’ll get better and better and better and better at reading these and using them the right way. So here’s some of those major league baseball steam moves for you.
Nine fifty four over eleven and a half over 12 in Dodgers, Colorado. They’re betting this over in the Dodgers every single night. They were fading them under and losing.
And I think now they just jumped on that train going over. But eventually, again, you’re seeing the market start to correct itself. We’re looking at an opener of eleven and a half now, twelve and a half.
That’s a much different bet going over twelve and a half compared to going over eleven and a half. They’re two completely different bets. You’ve got to be able to draw that distinction if you’re going to try to use sports betting for profit and not just for entertainment.
Nine fifty six San Francisco minus one seventy nine fifty eight New York Mets at even money. So even money or plus like the Mets there under under eight and a half and under eight all the way up to minus one thirty Toronto Cleveland at seven and a half. Much different bet from going under eight and a half to going under seven and a half.
Two completely different bets. Keep that in mind. Nine sixty two Cleveland minus one fifteen Cleveland minus one twenty Cleveland again minus one twenty five.
They love Cleveland today. Nine sixty five over nine and a half minus one thirty Tampa Kansas City and finally Houston Houston Houston minus one thirty Houston minus one thirty five Houston minus one forty. So Cleveland and Houston, they hit multiple times over in the Dodgers.
They hit multiple times under in Toronto. They hit multiple times. So a little early still only about nine thirty a.m. out here in the Pacific.
But again, with International Fight Week going on in Las Vegas, the drafts going on Major League Baseball, UFC three seventeen PFL card. It’s a great weekend to do some damage, man. I’m so hyped and so excited for it.
I am, too. We got a ton of plays. We talk about sports that build bankrolls.
We had a three percent cricket play last night. You know, this is such a fantastic time of year. We got to let you go.
Tell everyone what you have up for clients right now. Right now, there’s the draft package came down and I gave you the last draft play. Again, we do so good on these drafts.
Even at twenty six and a half, I probably sprinkle a little something. I have my UFC packages up there. There’s a five percent.
There’s I think at least two, three percent and a four percent in there as well. I’ll be firing over the next two days. I will be at UFC Expo tomorrow.
I get to talk to the trainers, get to talk to the fighters, get to talk to management like I get so much information during International Fight Week. If you look over historically, we’ve done very well on that card. Come Saturday, there’ll be a lot more in there.
There’s a four percent in PFL also that I love, love, love. And of course, Major League Baseball be up within the next 30 minutes. So, yeah, busy weekend.
Jump on board. Head on over to Greek underscore Gambler on Twitter. I’ll have the links up as well.
And of course, free bets, free bets, free bets always on my page at Wager Talk. Thanks, Gianni. Let’s let’s get ready for a huge, huge weekend.
It really, really starts tomorrow. So we’re going to go all around the world. But first, Bill has just a fantastic comment.
So Bill says, great show as always. And you do a great work. Usually watch we play live.
Thank you for watching us live on a twenty seven and six run in MLB since Sunday. Cashing on OKC in the under as well as Keegan Bradley win. So this is why this is a perfectly constructed comment.
He brags about his plays, but he starts off with a compliment to soften me up and he knows how vain I am. This is so well played, Bill. That is how you do it.
You compliment the host. You brag about your plays and you get your comment showed. Awesome job, Bill.
And thank you for joining us live. Always happy to have you. All right, Dan, let’s go all around the world.
Let’s give out some free plays here. We’re going to start with the Cubs over four and a half on their team total. Listen, this is a free play.
I think I’m moving it to a client play. Plante is pitching for Cardinals. He gave up no runs in his last start, but he’s given up three or more runs in eight starts this season.
The last time he had a great outing, he got shelled in the next game. The Cubs scored over this total in four out of last five games. Cubs are averaging five point eight runs per game on the road.
It’s hot. There’s not going to be a lot of movement on the ball, and there’s a few players for the Cubs that have had really, really big success. So I’m moving this to a client play.
It’s a free play, but it’s going to be moved to a client play. We’re going to the WNBA. This is from Ronald Cabang, Mystics at Aces.
He likes the Aces minus eight. Aces playing great defense, held last five opponents under their team total. Mystics, long cross country trip.
They’re starting to slide a little bit, only averaging 77 points the last five games. And then Brian Power gives us Man City at Juventus. Both teams to score.
Juventus, nine goals in the first two matches, and Man City, eight goals in their first two matches. So expect these teams to come out firing, because I believe they do want to win this game based on the points and the seeding that takes place. So those are the free plays for today.
If you want more free plays, there’s a bunch of them up at the Wager Talk free picks page. A special promo that we have up now, seven days of all access or flex picks from your favorite Wager Talk handicappers, instant discount down to $69. It’s less than $10 a day.
It gets all sports, MLB, UFC, WNBA, soccer, golf, anything, even our cricket plays that we cashed in. The best part about this is you can use it just on one handicapper, or you can switch it up any day. So if you want to use a handicapper for three days and then try out a few more, if you want a different handicapper every day, this is the best part about doing these flex picks.
So if you haven’t tried it, highly encourage you to try it. That’s why we run some of these specials so you guys can try something new at a discounted price. And if it works, then we can look at something a little bit more long-term.
So one week, less than $10 a day, full access, serious betting, firepower with your favorite Wager Talk handicapper. All right, let’s bring in Steve Merrill. We’re going to talk Braves and the Mets.
Steve, how are you? We got Holmes for Braves. We got Canning for the Mets today. How’s everything been going? And what’s your take on this Braves and Mets game? Yeah, going well, Andy.
I’ve talked about how baseball is a great time to play baseball right after the NBA finishes. It’s quiet time. No NBA, no football for a few months.
Basketball’s done. And the best baseball streak I ever had was about a decade ago. I have to look years.
It was either like 16 or 2017. But the day after the NBA Finals ended, I won 19 straight baseball games. Well, it’s not going to happen this year because I’m only 3-1 so far since the NBA Finals ended.
But seriously, it’s a great time. We did it last summer, too, at a 58-27 baseball run last summer. I’m in 3-1 so far here since the NBA Finals ended.
So we’ll see if we’ll keep it going. But it really is quiet time. Don’t take the summer off.
Build the bank. We talked about the other sports like cricket, golf, motorsports, MMA. Great time to build that bank run and be ready to take football on full throttle.
Do have one game tonight. Eight daytime games, and there’s only one nighttime game tonight on Thursday. It is your national TV standalone game on MLB Network.
So it’ll be a high-profile game. And it’s a good matchup, Braves and Mets. Mets just a few weeks ago had the best record in all of baseball.
They decided to lose 10 out of 11 games. They got back on track with a win yesterday, but still just 2-10 their last 12. So we’re going to stay away from the side of this one.
I’m going to look at the total instead. I like over eight and a half runs here between the Braves and Mets. Atlanta’s offense has been a little choppy this season, but they still have some firepower.
And I think they’ll have plenty of success against the Mets starter tonight as Griffin Canning, not a good pitcher, and my projections have him to have a poor outing here. And Atlanta’s current lineup that’ll be facing him tonight has gone 15-46, a 3-26 career batting average against Canning. So I think the Braves will have success here.
And while the Mets are struggling overall with wins, they still have four hitters with 15 home runs or more this year. They’re always one swing away from multiple runs. And I think they’ll also fare well here.
My pitcher projection ratings do not have Holmes having a good game either here. So both pitchers project to be pretty mediocre. Both offenses are capable.
We’ll look at over eight and a half. This line opened briefly at nine, which is a very key number. It’s now eight and a half over across the board.
I like it more because of that. So Braves-Mets, over eight and a half runs at your MLB Network national TV game, the standalone only nighttime game on Thursday at 7.15 Eastern. So who wins this game and what’s the correct score? We’re doing this in the comment section, Steve.
The winner, if someone wins, they get free Wager Talk swag. And if anybody gets to three winners, they get to come on this show and do a segment. They get to come on and do a game breakdown.
All right. So Steve, what’s your prediction? Give us the winner and the correct score for Braves-Mets. I’ve got to calm down here.
As you can see, the heart’s beating. I mean, first of all, I thought I’d left one of those tags on my clothes again when I walked out to the department store. That brought back some bad memories from Sam Goody when the CD didn’t scan right.
Anyway. All right. Well, so, you know, I like the over here, but I do think, you know, it’s interesting.
We saw a little bit of sharp money coming on the Mets. The Braves opened as a road favorite. The Mets are now a small favorite.
I know they’re just two and 10, their last 12. It’s funny, Andy, I was doing research on this late last night. If you go back over like the last 50 years, teams on a three game win streak or lose streak, no predictive power going forward.
It’s basically random variants. Now, two and 10 may be a little bit different, but the point is the Mets probably overachieved and now they’ve probably underachieved, right? So I do think there’ll be the buy side with them sooner than later. So I’ll take the Mets and I like the over here.
So we’re going to go at least nine runs or more. I’ll say the Mets win by one. Do I dare say 5-4? That’s too obvious.
I’ll say 6-5 because I like the over. We’re going to look for some runs. Mets, 6. Atlanta Braves, 5. And if I get two more right, I get to come on the show next week.
Is that how it works? Maybe we might finally send you a shirt. Oh, I do need some swag. Hey, I’ll tell you what, man.
It’s like the free William & Mary basketball t-shirts that I wear every day to the gym and around town. I’ve advertised that program more, including here on the show, just like wait to talk as well. And the viewers do love the swag, by the way.
So I know that’ll be a popular prize. I’ve gotten a lot of positive hoodie comments during the winter with the videos. Okay.
You mentioned gym. We got enough time. I have to ask you something.
I saw this the other day. There’s this guy that goes to my gym and he does everything barefoot. Ooh, that shouldn’t be allowed.
Is that a power move or is that absolutely disgusting? So that’s interesting because I was there about a week ago and I saw it was like a high school age group, maybe somebody back from college that came in and they forgot their shoes and she had the furry slipper type thing on. And the guy working there actually said she couldn’t work out, but there was a pair of shoes she could borrow. He wasn’t the owner.
The owner might have been okay with it, but he’s a little more strict, this guy. But yeah, I just saw that happen about a week ago and I was thinking, yeah, I guess it’s kind of a safety issue, right? And then I saw a kid yesterday wearing Crocs. And my son wears Crocs every day, plays basketball in Crocs.
So I’m like, I’m okay with it now. As long as you put it in sports mode. That’s when you flip the back up is sports mode.
That’s what the kids call it. But yeah, barefoot’s really like probably an insurance liability for the gym, to be honest. I’m surprised they allow that.
I bet they don’t. I bet he doesn’t know that that was going on because dudes doing massive squats and holding the 45 pounder. Yeah, you drop that on your foot night-night.
Although seriously though, how much does a sneaker probably protect you from a 45 pound plate? Enough to prevent it from being cut off. That’s a good point. I’m all about not having toes cut off.
I want all 10 digits. Yeah. Ain’t going Ronnie Lott up in here.
There’s the throwback for you. Ronnie Lott cut off part of his toe so he could get back in the game. That’s a true story.
And that’s why I own a Ronnie Lott Jersey, Steve. Yeah, Ronnie Lott is hardcore. Number 42.
Tell everyone what you have up for clients up at whatwaityourtalk.com. Hey, look, like, you know, we’re joking about it being, it’s summertime, right? But it takes five minutes a day to really get the plays. I average one to three best bets per day. We are three and one already since the NBA finals ended last summer.
We had a 58 and 27 around about a decade ago. I won 19 straight right after the NBA finals. And I love baseball this time of year.
We have several months of numbers to work with. And as I talked about earlier, we do kind of look for fading, maybe some overrated teams after a few months, getting on board some underrated teams. Next several months are going to be very profitable in baseball.
Keep in mind last year, my all sports clients had already doubled their bankroll by the end of August. So if you’d like to get on board, check out my page. I have daily free plays, best bet specials, including the seven days for just 69 dude right now, Steve Merrill, wager, talk.com and get there quicker.
Wt dot buzz slash S M. Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it. Good luck on all your plays.
Let’s let’s get a winner. Yeah. Wash your right.
Ronnie let cut off his finger. Not as not as toe. I got a little excited there.
It was his pinky that he cut off. Still hardcore, hardcore. So.
All right. Let’s bring in Kyle Anthony. We got to talk the main and the co-main at UFC 317, and then we’re going to play.
Sell me, Kyle, barefoot in the gym. You bet. No, I mean, that’s a little crazy.
I mean, that’s like a little. I mean, so he’s walking in like the bathroom barefoot. He’s go.
I mean, like to the locker. I mean, that is credit to him. That’s like a jungle man.
I respect it. Not my style though. Not my style at the gym.
Yeah, me either. I’ll give you, I’ll give you guys that are barefoot when they’re working out. It’s to Porya and Charles Olivera in the main event here.
I love this card. I, I, I think this is going to be an amazing card and they, they cap it off with a couple of really good fights here. Let’s break down to Porya and Olivera.
Obviously to Porya is the, the new big thing. And it feels like they’re moving. It feels like they’re like literally moving championships and they’re moving guys around like, well, you don’t see this hardly ever.
Normally Dana’s like, no, you do it my way, but he’s a big favorite here. How do you see to Porya versus Charles Olivera going? Yeah. And to your point, you know, you have you know, the big favor here and to Porya, he is minus 500 roughly and come back here on Charles is sitting around plus three 80.
And to what you’re saying, Andy, you have a Makashev. He moved up in weight, relinquishes his belt. You’ve got to Porya dropping his belt to move up.
Now we’ve got this lightweight title on Saturday night. Now you look at, you know, Charles Olivera here and Olivera is already a, you know, Hall of Famer in the UFC, most submissions in the history of the sport. I mean, just really has been, but we’ve seen him grow up basically in the UFC.
But the one thing here, I always say that styles make fights, but so does timing of fights. And now we’ve got Charles Olivera who is sitting now at 35 years old, a seven year age gap. And that’s not a good thing already.
You know, I don’t like that, especially when we’re talking about some of these lower weight classes. But the one thing that I thought was one of the most, the biggest red flag I really thought were Charles Olivera versus Michael Chandler. And the most recent fight, it was a fight.
I was at, at Madison square garden. And it was a fight where really you should see Charles Olivera dominating. That should absolutely be an absolute domination.
You’ve got, you know, Chandler, who’s more of a cross trainer at this point compared to like a UFC fighter. And yes, he got the victory, but if you look at significant strikes, it was 88 to 84 for Charles, very close. The way he got that victory was primarily takedowns.
He needed the takedowns. He needed control time. He had five takedowns over 15 minutes of control time.
And that’s how we won the fight. And I think at this point that really should have been a fight where he just puts a stamp on it, finishes Chandler and really, really looks good. I thought you’re seeing the decline of Olivera, even though he got the victory.
And that’s really how I see this fight here where the biggest liability really for Olivera is his chin and really the style at which he fights. And what I mean by that is first, we’ve seen Charles, how many times guy gets rocked, wobbled, dropped in wins and losses. I mean, he’s just, the chin is there.
It gets touched. He starts to rock. He’ll go to his back.
He’ll allow, you know, the most opponents don’t want to go down with them. So it kind of allows a little bit of time for him. And I think that also you got, he’s a shoe to box guy and I respect those guys a lot, but you look at how they fight and, you know, they come forward, they’re aggressive.
They’re going to throw a lot of combinations. You know, Charles, obviously he’s not scared to be taken down. He’s got, you know, high level, you know, BJJ.
So he can move forward with that. But the issue here for me really is the fact that if he’s going to come forward and so is Teporia, that’s going to just be a lot of action here. And I think that Teporia is far more durable.I think obviously he’s got the youth on his side. And really, I think that the way he strikes and his power is really absurd, just how good it is.
