7 min read
Major Takeaways
- Scott Colom leads Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith by 43 votes, 462,821 to 462,778, and the Mississippi Senate race remains uncalled.
- Thousands of affidavit ballots still must be reviewed, and voters who cast one for lack of photo ID have five business days to show ID at a clerk office.
- Mississippi has no runoff in this federal race and no automatic recount, however close the final margin gets.
- If the lead holds, Colom would become the first Black senator from Mississippi since Blanche K. Bruce left office in 1881.
The Mississippi Senate race is the closest race in America this morning, and it is nowhere near finished.
Nearly a million Mississippians cast a ballot on Tuesday. By sunrise on Wednesday, just 43 votes separated the two leading candidates.
Democrat Scott Colom held 462,821 votes. Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith held 462,778 votes.
Independent Ty Pinkins held 19,935 votes, about two percent. In a margin this small, every one of those votes now looks enormous.
43 Votes Decide Nothing Yet in the Mississippi Senate Race
No winner had been called as of Wednesday morning. The race stood at too early to call, with 1,733 of 1,736 precincts reporting.
That status matters. A call comes only when the trailing candidate can no longer close the gap, and nobody can honestly say that here.
Hyde Smith led for most of Tuesday night. Then late returns arrived from Hinds County, home to Jackson, and from majority Black counties in the Delta and southwest Mississippi.
In Hinds County alone, Colom piled up 61,793 votes to 14,702 for Hyde Smith. Shortly after midnight, he moved ahead by 28 votes.
A few hours later, the lead stood at 43 votes. Both candidates sat at 48.9 percent of the vote.
This happened in a state President Donald Trump carried by 24 points in 2024. Forecasters had rated the seat as likely or safely Republican.
Former Gov. Haley Barbour noticed the shift early on Tuesday night. He said Trump was not winning by 24 points today.
What Is Still Left to Count on Wednesday
Counting did not end when the parties wound down. Hinds County paused its tally shortly after midnight and planned to resume on Wednesday morning.
Across the state sit thousands of affidavit ballots. The Colom campaign estimated there are 10,000 to 15,000 of them statewide.
That estimate comes from the campaign and has not been confirmed by the Secretary of State office. The Hyde Smith campaign says its own numbers show she will win.
An affidavit ballot is a provisional ballot. Voters cast one when eligibility is questioned at the polls.
That can happen when a voter shows up without acceptable photo ID. It can also happen when a voter arrives at the wrong precinct or appears as inactive in the poll book.
Those ballots are reviewed after Election Day. Each one must be verified before it can join the final tally.
If You Cast an Affidavit Ballot, the Clock Is Running
This part is personal for thousands of Mississippi voters. Some of those ballots will not count unless the voter takes one more step.
A voter who cast an affidavit ballot for lack of photo ID can still have it counted. The voter must show ID at the circuit clerk office within five business days.
Mail absentee ballots face a similar window. A ballot postmarked on or before Election Day must be received within five business days of November 3.
Voters who cast an affidavit ballot are entitled to written information at the polls. That information explains how to learn whether the vote was counted and, if not, the reason why.
In a race decided by dozens of votes, a trip to the clerk office is not paperwork. It could decide who represents Mississippi in Washington.
Readers can follow each update on our Election Tracker as counties finish their counts.
No Runoff and No Automatic Recount in Mississippi
Two state rules raise the stakes even higher. The first is that there is no runoff in this race.
In a federal general election, whoever finishes first wins the seat. No candidate must reach 50 percent to take office.
Pinkins and his roughly two percent cannot force a second round. The plurality winner wins, full stop.
The second rule concerns a recount. Mississippi has no automatic recount, however close the final margin gets.
A recount happens only if a court orders one. A candidate who wants one must ask a judge, not simply request it from election officials.
That makes the affidavit review the main road ahead. Legal challenges could follow once counties certify their totals.
She Blocked His Judgeship. Now He May Take Her Seat.
Colom was never supposed to be on this ballot. He was supposed to be a federal judge.
In October 2022, President Joe Biden nominated Colom to the United States District Court for the Northern District of Mississippi.
Support came from across party lines. Sen. Roger Wicker, Rep. Trent Kelly and former Govs. Phil Bryant and Haley Barbour all backed his consideration.
One signature was missing. In April 2023, Hyde Smith announced she would not return her blue slip, the home state senator sign off that district court nominees traditionally need before a hearing.
She said she simply could not support his nomination to serve on the federal bench in Mississippi for a lifetime. She cited his opposition to legislation on female athletes and support his first campaign for district attorney received from a political action committee.
The nomination died without a hearing. Months later, Colom announced he was running for the Senate, against her.
On Tuesday night in Flowood, Hyde Smith came close to declaring victory. She told supporters she assured them she would continue to be their senator, and she credited the other side for working hard.
Across the river in Jackson, Colom stopped short of claiming the win. He told his crowd he believed, deep down in his soul, that Mississippi was about to show the country that Mississippi matters.
His campaign manager Gerard Henderson put it plainly. This is not over, Henderson said, and the campaign will fight to the end.
The History Waiting on This Count
Colom, a Columbus native, has made history before. In 2015 he unseated a longtime district attorney to become the first Black district attorney of the 16th Circuit.
If his lead holds now, the history grows much larger. He would be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Mississippi since John Stennis in 1982.
He would also become the first Black senator from Mississippi since Blanche K. Bruce. Bruce served during Reconstruction and left office in 1881.
Hyde Smith made history of her own. Appointed in 2018 to replace the retiring Thad Cochran, she became the first woman to represent Mississippi in Congress, and she is now seeking a second full term.
The seat also carries daily power for Black Mississippi. Senators confirm judges who rule for decades, and they vote on health care, voting rights, farm aid and federal money for roads, schools and hospitals.
This morning roundup of the historic night sits alongside our earlier report on Black candidates making history across the country.
What Black Mississippi Watches Next
Control of the Senate has already been decided without this seat. Democrats won the majority on Tuesday night, so Mississippi will shape the margin, not the outcome.
That still matters. One more vote changes what a majority can pass, what it must negotiate and who holds leverage when a bill hangs by a thread.
For now, the honest answer is patience. Counties must finish reporting, clerks must review affidavit ballots and voters who need to show ID must do it inside five business days.
A winner likely will not be known for a few days. Anyone who tells you this race is settled today is guessing.
What is already settled is the statement Mississippi voters made. A district attorney from Columbus, written off in a state carried by 24 points two years ago, stands 43 votes from the United States Senate.
For continuing coverage of this count and the new Congress, visit our News section throughout the week.
