Thursday WNBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | Sparks vs Fever | Profit Picks – June 26, 2025

Thursday WNBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | Sparks vs Fever | Profit Picks – June 26, 2025

What’s up, everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks. If you are new, we always start this show by being transparent. And yesterday I had a couple of hiccups.

My fingers did not let me push confirm on the sun. I didn’t lose on that. But I did take first quarter and first half over in that Aces game.

And boy, seven minutes with no scoring. You know what I did? Bartender! So not a good night for me yesterday. Have to do better here today.

Vino, I know you had at least one winner because you gave it on the show. And secondly, I had a couple of people come up to me after the game and say, Rob Vino, Aces team total 100. Hopefully the rest of your day was good as well.

How are you doing, Vino? I’m doing good, buddy. That was the only play that I released yesterday was the… Actually, I’m wrong. Let me just rephrase.

The play I released to clients was the Liberty first half team total over 43 and a half, which got there. They got to 46. The play I used as the best bet on this show was the secondary play, as you mentioned.

Aces team total under 89 and a half. And they did… It kind of went to form the way we described it yesterday, Ski. The fourth quarter was low scoring.

Becky did manage minutes really well in that one. I don’t think anybody played 29. So 85, to get to 90 is tough unless you’re going to shoot it really, really well.

And like you say, boy, that 19 to nothing start by the Aces. I mean, Connecticut, come on, get something in the bucket. But it was a good day.

Yeah, it went opposite of what I thought. I mean, couldn’t score for the first seven minutes. And then after that, they started scoring just fine, just normal.

I thought it would be more scoring early and less late. But today is a new day. We’ll see if we can make some money here with the two games that we have.

Appreciate you guys tapping in. A lot of the usual suspects. And let’s see.

What is Brian H saying here? He said the sun in Vegas under fourth quarter was a good call. Ski, believe that was you. Thank you.

I did say it. But I’m glad you won if you took it. But I’m not going to lie.

I was… I told you what happened after the first seven minutes. I don’t even remember. That last couple… Fourth quarter.

And there goes Siobhan cashing with Mr. Robino. All right. Let’s see if we can find some winners today.

First game, we’ll talk about Sparks at the Fever. And this one opened up Fever minus ten and a half. It’s down as low as five.

There’s five. There’s five and a half. There’s six.

So make sure you line shot. Total open one seventy and a half. When I was leaving the sportsbook yesterday, at least where I was at, it was as high as one seventy four.

And it’s now down as low as one sixty seven. And we obviously all know Katelyn Clark is not going to be available tonight. As well as Demiris Johnson.

I mean, two shooters. I know Clark has not been shooting it well lately. But two shooters, four spacers.

Whereas Indiana Fever team are not going to be out there tonight. For the Sparks, the usual suspects. Cameron Brink, Ray Burrell, Julio Alomar missed another game.

And Odyssey Sims. I mean, it keeps saying personal. I can’t help but think.

I mean, I saw a tweet about it. Like, is she pulling a Bonner? And I saw another tweet. I wish I could give him credit.

They said, yeah, that means she don’t want to play no more. But I don’t know what’s up with Odyssey Sims. They desperately miss her.

Offense has not been the same for the Sparks since she’s been out. However, this Fever defense is not very good. I think they’re a little bit better when Katelyn Clark is not on the court.

But still not very good overall. So it makes it hard. Like, I think the Sparks can score on him.

If they had a point guard, I would really love a Sparks team total. It’s at 80 and a half. I just think that’s low playing against the Fever.

But either that or, you know, we’re getting the ass into the line here, Vino. Sparks wear double digits, but I think they’re live to win this game. How are you viewing this one? Yeah, I mean, they should be live to win this game.

If I just go back to the five games where Katelyn Clark didn’t play because of the quad injury, their offense didn’t look right. And I’ll tell you who especially didn’t look right was Kelsey Mitchell. I think Kelsey Mitchell misses Katelyn Clark in the lineup as much as anybody.

You go back and check her game logs for that five game span between May 28th and June 10th where Clark wasn’t available and she was not the same player. The other night she lit it up for Indiana against Seattle. So they’re back to that situation where they don’t really have a primary ball handler.

The question in this case is, though, like we say all the time, L.A.’s defense is no good. Can they even take advantage of this? And I would say this. They didn’t sign Harry McDonald, though.

Very true. Very true. So you have a player coming in in McDonald who’s veteran and can maybe steer the steer the ship while Clark tries to get healthy here.

But the way Indiana scores in the paint ski is crazy. They’re number one in the league in points in the paint. They dominated the other night against Seattle inside.

I think Aaliyah Boston had 31. And you watch the sparks against the sky. Cardozo went crazy.

Angel Reese was all over the glass. And L.A.’s just too little to defend inside. And so I think that Indiana can score almost at will if they can get it in there, in the interior, into the paint.

Maybe that’s their method of scoring here. And for the sparks, I think you mentioned it. Indiana’s defense really not that good.

Kelsey Plum, for what it’s worth, her perimeter shooting, every time I watch, just doesn’t seem to be on point at all lately. But they have so many scorers on that team that you would think they’d be able to score. I don’t see any other way to play a sparks game at this point in time where total is concerned other than over.

But I do fear 168 might be a little bit too high, simply because the fever looks a little disjointed when Clark’s not running the show. Do I want to take five points with the sparks? I’m not sure, because they can give up a 10-0 run in a blink. And that could cost you a game.

So I didn’t play it either way. I couldn’t even find a way to shorten it up, to tell you the truth, and maybe play first quarter, first half, something of that nature. So I let it go.

Let’s see how Indiana fares without Clark, because it looks from the initial reports that she may be out more than just this game. And I think that Commissioner’s Cup is coming next week against Minnesota. And if she doesn’t play there, maybe we can take advantage.

But I’d rather see how they look, like you say, with McDonald at the point. Maybe they can look a little better than they did that first five-game stretch without Caitlin Clark. Yeah, man.

I was doing work. I was researching and doing write-ups and working on stuff for two hours yesterday. And I was liking the over in this game.

I really was. But now if you don’t have starting point guard on both teams, I can’t feel as confident as I did. And I feel like I wasted my time doing that work.

I wish I would have known she was out before. But I guess at the current moment, I’ll just lean with Sparks. But this thought is just in the back of my mind.

I think Ariel McDonald has something to prove. He really deserves a roster spot. Odyssey Sims on the other side, right? I swear, Odyssey Sims took Arie’s spot.

So I feel like Arie and she should have been resigned to the Sparks. So if I’m not mistaken, I think she’ll come out playing with an edge. I know the Fever are still barely at 500.

They need wins. In that last game, I mean, Caitlin Clark, she wasn’t doing anything positive. Everything was a negative.

She was throwing up bricks. She was turning it over. Whenever she was on the court, the other team was creeping back up or took the lead.

Whenever she was off or deferring, the Fever started to score and get ahead again. So I think they can still win by this margin. So that’s the reason for me not to play.

That’s what I’m saying, all that to say. And one last thing about the Aaliyah Boston. Her points per game go down by like seven or eight points per game without Caitlin Clark.

I agree with you, Capper. It says no one can get Boston the ball other than Caitlin Clark. We’ll see if maybe Eric could do a little bit better here.

But yeah, I’m kind of in agreement with that statement. All right, next game. We are going to go Mystics and Aces.

And this one opened up Aces minus eight and a half. Currently seeing mostly eights. I think mostly eights out there.

Total open 162 and a half. And it is as low as 159 and a half. Take a look at the injury report.

And I was trying to check my phone and see if we just got some news right now. But we did not. Staying to usual suspects out for Las Vegas.

Emily Inkler out for the Mystics. And Brittany Seitz. Looks like she’s questionable.

A true game time decision. Big time scorer for them. Big time defender for them.

That’s a huge deal for this Mystics team. Um, you know, I feel like the Mystics. I’ve been like, I feel like they’ve been playing better lately.

They’ve been playing good. And I feel like, you know, they’re buying into whatever their coach is selling. And, you know, the group that they have around them.

I like what I’m seeing. But look at the recent schedule. They did play Minnesota, you know, without Collier.

I think they’re missing somebody else as well. Um, barely beat the Wings. Who I believe didn’t have Dejanay.

They did have a scrappy little comeback versus Atlanta. After getting blown out most of the game. But like, while I think they’re starting to turn in the right direction.

I think they take advantage of some teams either hurt or just. Not playing the best basketball. Like they had Chicago.

Ah, I’m not too impressed is what I’ll say. When I look at the Aces side. They’ve been pretty bad for majority of the season.

It’s taking some time to get things together. Chemistry wise, maybe for them. But and they did play last night.

But, um, the game versus the fever. That fourth quarter, it was like they flipped the switch. Maybe even the whole second half.

But yeah, third quarter and fourth quarter. I’ll say they kind of flipped the switch. And it looked like the Aces that we expect to see.

Um, they kind of wrote that over versus a shorthanded Connecticut team. And we saw that first quarter. What was it? 17, 0, 15, 0, something like that.

Um, and again, Connecticut was missing their best score. And one of the, if not, probably the worst team in a W. But still can’t ignore that the Aces were doing things. Well, the Aces were playing hard for majority of the game.

And that’s what has been lacking. So this is an Aces team who. I believe is exactly at 500.

Um, I don’t think they’re satisfied. I think this is a team that know they’ve underperformed this year. Nobody played 30 minutes yesterday.

I think that the Aces can win, but win this game by margin. And even more than that, I think it can start off early like a first half. Mystics have been really bad, especially in the second quarter.

So those are my initial thoughts. While I pull up, uh, or look up a couple more things on the charts. What do you think about that? You know, well, let me say this real quick.

I have, you could see two pages full of notes here on this game, because I did a video for wager talk. You probably just rattled off 80% on what’s on these two pages. So I’m in line with a lot of what you said.

And I’ll just go back to the recent schedule with the Mystics. Um, yeah, the games look close, but as you described, you can justify not being impressed by the Mystics in any of those games. I think the only one of those four you didn’t really cover was the Sky game.

With, I actually laid four and a half with the Mystics in that game, and they’re losing the whole way. It’s like a last late run in the last, maybe four minutes, maybe less, maybe last three minutes where they pulled away and won by seven. Luckily, they would never cover in that game.

So it’s four that I don’t know how impressed I am with those. So that’s one thing. I like what you said about Las Vegas being, um, I’ll say it this way.

I think that this is a team that’s looking to stack wins right now. I listened to Asia Wilson in her, uh, interview on the floor after the game last night, and she was all business. And it looked to me last night, and it was mentioned a couple of times on the broadcast.

It looked to me like Becky Hammond prepped for this two game, um, back to back in order to win both. We thought she might do it minute twice last night, but everything she did yesterday indicated to me that they don’t just want one of these games. They want both of these games.

I’ll go to the travel part of this. Washington came from DC Tuesday night, three time zones here to the West coast, um, less than 48 hours. You’re going to play again, even though Las Vegas is in back to backs.

I’d almost say that the scheduling favors Las Vegas a little bit. They’ve been sitting here at home for three games now, very comfortable at home. They’ve won two of them.

Like I said, I think they’re going to want to win this third. Um, they’re building some momentum ski. I went back to the first game that was played between these two way, way back beginning of the year.

It was Las Vegas’s third game of the season. It was played on this floor. Aces win 75, 72.

And you look at the box and Washington didn’t have Shakira Austin. Washington didn’t have Brittany sites, but I justify it by saying it was only Las Vegas’s third game. Getting used to Jewel Lloyd.

Things were so discombobulated back then. It looks different now on the floor for the aces. So I kind of threw that game out as just a beginning of the year type thing.

The last thing you said was the one that pushed me over the edge. And the reason why I made this bet, I bet Las Vegas first half minus four and a half. I think we’ve said it before.

The mystics have been a terrible first half team. You mentioned it. They’re four and 10 against the spread first half and Las Vegas as a home favorite is three and one first half against the spread.

So to sum it up, I just feel like this team, Las Vegas is going to be ready from the opening tip. I think they showed us last night that they were preparing for two games and not just one. They kind of cakewalk their way through.

Once they got the big lead last night, they won’t do that here. And the Emily Angstler injury to me is a big deal because it shortens Washington’s rotation to seven players. If Brittany Sykes doesn’t play, you know, Jade Melbourne filled in for Sykes the other day.

She’s two of seven from the field, one of five, not the same player. Sykes, like you say, leading score, great defender, but she’s also the leading assist person on this team. So Washington’s got some issues here, Steve.

I think that, you know, they match up pretty good across the front line. But when you get to backcourt and then depth, Las Vegas to me has a pretty sizable advantage. Depth usually comes into play in the second quarter.

So I played first half Las Vegas minus four and a half. I think they’ll be ahead by five or more at halftime. Um, yeah, I mean, you kind of mentioned, right, the rotation.

They don’t have that many players, right? So when the starters get tired and you got to, you know, it’s that second quarter. That’s why they’re not having success right there. That’s what it sounds like to me.

And Aces, they have been pretty strong in the first half. Let me, let me pull this up here. While you pull it up, I’ll say real quick to ski.

Las Vegas played with a lot of pace last night and Washington doesn’t like to play with pace. So we’ll see if that affects the Washington’s Washington’s depth as well. Shout out to our guy RC in the chat.

This is his website, the money baller. And you guys can see right here. The mystics are four and 10 ATS in the first half on the season.

They have not covered, I believe in the last five games in the first half. It only shows four here, but oh, and four. So, yeah, I, I think early is good.

I think it’s often as well. I will pull one more thing up here just to, you know, just take a look at it, show it on here, see what you guys think. Here we go.

Boom. This should be good. You see this Vino? Yep.

So this is, um, this is kind of what I was looking at just to kind of justify betting on a team on a second of it back to back. And this is what this is saying. Unrested home favorites.

Versus arrested opponent. And okay, my bad. I’m read this over unrested home favorites who did not have to travel.

Unrested home favorites of less than 10, who did not have to travel versus opponents who are arrested. That’s a situation for the aces and the mystics. And it says that even with the short rest, they still went and cover.

They went by about 10.6 points per game. The average is here. So the second half, for some reason, they stay, even though on the back to back, they usually do better, but just how these teams have been playing.

Honestly, I think this is one you can double up on first half and full game. Any last thoughts on that, you know? Yeah, it makes me think of the days when I used to do some shows as a guest with Jay money and I forget what he used to call it. First quarter, first half full game, right? He used to go.

Yeah, all three. And it could be, I just. Smack city spot.

That’s what it was. There you go. Smack city spot.

First quarter, first half full game. And I think we both are in line. We’re kind of saying the same exact things.

We’re seeing the same things in this contest where I’d expect Las Vegas there. They look like they have that hunger back to get back to establish their, you know, kind of position as a an elite team in the WNBA, whether they are or not is yet to be seen. But they feel like they are.

I like the way they played last night. And as I mentioned to you real quick before, I like the way they played with pace. And they shoot a lot of threes.

You know, Washington only made five threes the other day against Minnesota. That offense did not. They scored 68 points in one.

It just didn’t look good. This cross country travel for Washington, I think, is a deterrent early in the game. So I’m with you.

I like I like first half here for sure. I bet it that way minus four and a half. You said look at teams this season on a back to back five and OTS.

And that’s what this shows here. The one where double digit underdogs, two of them were favorites. The two favorites, both one and covered five covers in general.

So the less rest has, you know, it’s not been a thing to, you know, look at the back the rest disadvantage or, you know, I’m trying to say it’s not been right to. You know, just bet against somebody on a back to back is what I’m trying to say here. So appreciate that from RC.

And also, let me just glance at this one second just to see. Look at it again. This is the second half where they’re doing a little bit better.

And that’s just interesting to me that they’re on a second of a back to back. That’s what happens. What did I do here? There we go.

Those a couple more comments I want to look at before we get out of here. Um, you ever said this quote started to change in response to what is wrong with their defense. We ain’t playing any.

Just start doing a little something that I help out. Casey, we start every game by going through the injury report. That’s all I’m gonna say to Casey.

Let’s see. Um, shout out to my guy, RC, saying check out the moneyballer.com. You guys saw me use this on the show today. Anything else here worth putting up? Yeah.

Hey, you know, I was looking forward to my guys coming out here, man. RC, Jay Money, Vegas next week. I’ll be looking forward to it, man.

I have a nice tequila pineapple waiting for you guys. That’s a squad. Yep.

Yep. All right. I think we did a pretty good job here today and appreciate you.

Scheme. Shine. I’m not sure how to say this, and I’m sorry if I said it.

I’m sure one of the ways I said it was incorrect. Mr. Lindsey. How about that? Says he loves the show and we appreciate it.

If you guys also enjoyed the show, hit the like button for us. It helps us out. Uh, subscribe.

So, you know, whenever we do go live and, um, yeah, let’s let’s move it on over before best bets. We will actually did my job today. Rob, you know, so let’s put this up here.

Oh, that’s pretty. I got to move the banner. Uh, there we go.

Fourth of July blowout sale. So you can get seven days of all access or flex pics. So you can bounce around from anybody you want.

You can get it for only $69. So what is that like slightly less than $10 a day. I think that’s a pretty good deal.

And, you know, it looks like, uh, I didn’t think you were good looking enough to get on this graphic, huh? I think, I think they were mad because it took me too long to get those pictures. You know what I went through? You know how that process went? It took me a while. Look at RC over here with no hat on.

He looks the happiest of the bunch. I’m telling you, like, like he just hit the jackpot. 7-Eleven.

Oh, yeah. You can check us out with that at ladypark.com and the link to both of our pages floating right there on the bottom of the screen. And also our guy RC in the chat.

I think his is wt.buzz backslash RC. So on that note, we’re going to move it to best bets here. I’ll ask you if there’s anything else you would like to promote Ralph Vino.

And, um, if you have a best bet for the show, we would love to hear it. If you don’t, it is all good. I think you covered the promotion pretty well.

Ski that 4th of July blowout, all access or flex, whichever you choose. I will say real quick here that, again, the long term run has been sensational. All sports for me up over 99 units.

It’s like almost a four month run now. So if you’re interested, WNBA, CFL, which starts tonight for the weekend, both in order for me. Check my homepage wt.buzz slash RV.

Best bet. Let’s go back to what we talked about. It was the one I played.

It’s the one I recommended today on the wager talk video. I do think Las Vegas comes out early from the opening tip. They’re seeking wins right now.

So four and a half to me, especially the way Washington has played first halves this year, four and a half seemed like a reasonable price. So that’s what I’m going to leave here for as best bet for the show. Hopefully we can get it right on aces games two days in a row.

Aces minus four and a half first half. That’s the play. I like it.

Shout out to the chat. You guys got me dying. Casey says, yeah, keep your head on our seat.

For myself, I don’t have anything else to promo. I think we did a good job already. I haven’t played anything yet, so I don’t like to give anything I haven’t played.

But what I like the most right now is aces first half and full game. I’ll likely get involved with one, if not both. And that’s how we will rock out today.

Before we before we do get out of here, if you know. Man, you remember I told you I spent two hours, two hours doing research and work. I had the best bet for tomorrow that Caitlin Clark Hendry threw it off to.

So now I got to do some more research and find another one. So it’s no best bet, you know, up on my page. But I told you where I’m looking to put my money today.

I appreciate you, Rob, you know, for always taking the time to cap these games. Helps me out in my process. That’s a chat out, provided a winner last night to see if we can get another one here tonight.

For you guys in the chat, good people, good cappers. You guys help make the show what it is and you keep us laughing the entire time while you do it. Shout out to the people watching everywhere, whether it’s YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Spotify, Apple, we appreciate all of you.

And we have a much, much bigger slate tomorrow. We have one, two, three, four, five games. So we’ll be back here again tomorrow, 1030 a.m. Pacific Standard Time, 1.30 Eastern.

And we’ll catch you all then.