6 min read
Major Takeaways
- A new University of North Florida poll made public on October 21 shows Byron Donalds at 49 percent and David Jolly at 47 percent for governor.
- The same poll shows Senator Ashley Moody at 49 percent and Angie Nixon at 45 percent in the Florida Senate race.
- Pollster Sean Freeder said Donalds is winning only about nine percent of the African American vote despite heavy outreach to Black voters.
- Early voting is already underway in 35 of the 67 counties in Florida, and Election Day is November 3.
The Florida governor race has moved into a statistical tie.
Less than two weeks remain before Election Day on November 3.
For Black voters in Florida, this is not an abstract contest.
Two historic candidacies sit at the center of the ballot.
One could produce the first Black governor in Florida history.
The other could produce the first Black senator from Florida.
The new numbers say both races are still within reach.
They also say Black voters are not moving the way one campaign hoped.
1. Florida Governor Race Enters Tie Territory
The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida released the survey on October 21.
It surveyed 1471 likely voters from October 12 to October 19.
The margin of error is 2.81 percentage points.
Donalds leads Jolly by 49 percent to 47 percent for governor.
That two point gap sits inside the margin of error.
In plain terms, the race for governor is too close to call.
The movement matters as much as the margin itself.
The same lab had Donalds ahead by five points in July.
His lead has now narrowed to just two points.
Freeder said the evidence shows things tightening toward Democrats doing better.
Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since 1994.
Jolly would be the first one in more than three decades.
2. Outreach Has Not Moved Black Voters
Donalds is a congressman from Naples who first won his House seat in 2020.
He served in the Florida House before going to Congress.
President Donald Trump endorsed his run for governor.
A win would make him the first Black governor of Florida.
He would be only the fourth elected Black governor in the nation.
He would also be the first Black Republican governor in the nation.
He is only the second Black nominee for governor in Florida history.
Andrew Gillum was the first, in the close race of 2018.
Freeder said Donalds has put a lot of effort into outreach with Black voters.
The poll finds very little evidence that the effort is helping him.
Freeder put Donalds at about nine percent of the African American vote.
He said Moody is doing about the same, at about ten percent.
His verdict was blunt about both Republican candidates.
He said neither one is doing very well at all with Black voters.
That finding carries a lesson Black voters teach again and again.
Representation on a ballot is not the same as a record on our issues.
Black families judge candidates on costs, housing, schools, and safety.
A familiar face still has to answer for the price of daily life.
3. Nixon Narrows The Senate Gap
The Senate race on the same ballot is tightening as well.
Moody leads Nixon by 49 percent to 45 percent statewide.
That is a four point race, down from eight points in July.
Moody is the incumbent senator in this special election contest.
Governor Ron DeSantis appointed her after Marco Rubio left the seat.
Rubio resigned to become Secretary of State in 2025.
The winner will serve the final two years of that Senate term.
Nixon is a state representative from Jacksonville first elected in 2020.
She grew up in the Moncrief neighborhood of Jacksonville.
Her mother worked two jobs to support Nixon and her brother.
She won the Democratic nomination on August 18 in an upset primary win.
She defeated Alexander Vindman despite a wide fundraising deficit.
A win in November would make her the first Black senator from Florida.
Her campaign centers on lower costs and higher wages for working families.
She also campaigns on corporate accountability and protecting voter participation.
4. Other Polls Show A Wider And Messier Race
One poll does not settle a statewide race in Florida.
The broader polling average still favors both Republican candidates.
Decision Desk HQ averages put the governor race at 49.9 percent to 44 percent.
Its Senate average stands at 50.4 percent to 43.3 percent for Moody.
Recent surveys have produced very different pictures of the governor race.
One Stetson University survey gave Donalds a lead of eleven points.
A Univision and YouGov survey gave him a lead of eight points.
A St. Pete Polls survey found the governor race completely tied.
That spread tells voters to treat every single survey with caution.
It also tells both campaigns that turnout will decide this election.
Persuasion is nearly finished with less than two weeks to go.
The side that turns out its voters will win Florida.
5. What Is At Stake For Black Florida
The governor of Florida shapes far more than headlines in Tallahassee.
That office influences housing costs, insurance costs, and public schools.
Jolly campaigns on affordability, education, housing, and insurance reform.
He is a former Republican congressman who later left his old party.
Donalds campaigns on tax reductions and government accountability.
His platform also includes insurance changes and health care price transparency.
For Black homeowners, insurance and housing costs are not side issues.
For Black parents, school funding and book bans are not side issues.
For Black workers, wages and health care are not side issues.
The Senate seat carries national weight for Black communities as well.
Control of Congress runs through close Senate races like this one.
That control shapes voting rights, judges, and health care law.
6. Turnout In The Final Days Will Decide It
Early voting is already underway in 35 of the 67 counties.
Statewide early voting begins on October 24 in the remaining counties.
The deadline to request a vote by mail ballot is October 22.
That deadline arrives tomorrow, so voters should act right away.
Churches, campuses, and neighborhoods will matter more than television ads now.
Black voters in Jacksonville helped put Nixon on this ballot.
Black voters in Miami, Orlando, and Tampa can help decide both races.
The poll says the door is open in Florida this year.
History is on the ballot in two different ways at once.
Only turnout decides whether that history actually gets made.
Read more in our Georgia governor race coverage and our Michigan Senate race coverage, and visit Urban City Podcast for more stories.
