7 min read
Major Takeaways
- Two new Georgia polls show Rick Jackson and Keisha Lance Bottoms locked in a statistical tie for governor.
- Black voters back Bottoms by huge margins in both polls, 88 percent in one and 82 percent in the other.
- Independents lean toward Bottoms, and Democratic voters report far more enthusiasm than Republican voters.
- Bottoms would become the first Black governor in Georgia history and the first Black woman governor in the nation.
The Georgia governor race is tied with two weeks left before Election Day.
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson stand nearly even statewide.
Black voters hold the balance in a state where every point now matters.
The Georgia Governor Race By The Numbers
A new poll published on Tuesday put Jackson at 46 percent and Bottoms at 45 percent.
Eight percent of likely voters in that survey said they remain undecided.
The survey spoke with 1000 likely Georgia voters by telephone from Oct. 7 to 15.
Its margin of error was 3.1 points, which makes the contest essentially a tie.
A second poll published on Monday reached almost the exact same conclusion.
That survey put Jackson at 48.2 percent and Bottoms at 46.6 percent among likely voters.
It spoke with 755 likely voters from Oct. 15 to 17, after the debates had ended.
Its margin of error was 3.8 points, and 4.5 percent of voters were undecided.
Analysts who ran that survey called the race to succeed Brian Kemp a statistical tie.
Black Voters Give Bottoms Her Foundation
The racial divide inside the numbers tells the real story of this race.
In the Tuesday poll, 88 percent of Black voters said they back Bottoms.
In the Monday poll, Black voters backed Bottoms over Jackson by 82 percent to 10 percent.
Jackson leads among white voters with 66 percent support in the Tuesday survey.
Voters age 65 and older also favor Jackson, giving him 58 percent of their support.
Bottoms wins voters younger than 30 by a wide margin, taking 63 percent there.
Party loyalty runs strong on both sides as the finish line comes into view.
Republicans back Jackson at 94 percent, while Democrats back Bottoms at 93 percent.
That leaves the race resting on turnout, independents and a small pool of undecided voters.
Early Turnout Shows Black Georgians Engaged
The voters who will decide this race are already casting ballots across Georgia.
Early voting is under way now and continues through Oct. 30 statewide.
Election Day follows on Nov. 3, when the final ballots will be counted.
Black voters make up about 31 percent of registered voters in Georgia.
As of Friday morning, they had cast 34.7 percent of all early ballots statewide.
That total stood at 186659 Black early voters out of 537347 ballots cast.
It was roughly 40000 more Black early voters than at the same point in 2022.
Georgia also set a midterm record on the first day of early voting this year.
Voters cast 188667 in person ballots that day, up 40 percent from 2022.
Organizers still urge caution, because an early edge can fade before Election Day.
In 2022 the Black share of the early vote started near 36 percent.
By the end of that cycle, the Black share had fallen to 29.4 percent.
Holding the current pace would keep Bottoms within striking distance through Nov. 3.
Independents And Enthusiasm Point Toward Bottoms
Independent voters may hold the single most important bloc in this contest.
They favor Bottoms over Jackson by 43 percent to 38 percent in the Tuesday poll.
Still, 18 percent of independents said they have not yet made up their minds.
Enthusiasm also tilts toward the Democratic side of the electorate right now.
In the Tuesday poll, 68 percent of Democrats called themselves very enthusiastic.
Only 48 percent of Republicans used those same words about this election.
About one in eight Republican voters said they are not enthusiastic about their candidates.
That share was double the share recorded among Democratic voters in the survey.
Bottoms also leads among women and across the Atlanta metro area in the Monday poll.
Jackson leads among men and across the Georgia suburbs in that same survey.
Money, Kemp And Trump Shape The Republican Case
Jackson brings enormous personal wealth into the final stretch of this race.
The billionaire health care executive spent at least 108 million dollars of his own money.
That spending carried him through the Republican nomination fight earlier this year.
Jackson narrowly won the Republican primary runoff in June against Lt. Gov. Burt Jones.
Outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp backs Jackson as his chosen successor in the office.
Kemp carries an approval rating of nearly 70 percent in the Tuesday poll.
Jackson has worked to present himself as the natural heir to the Kemp era.
His campaign said he would skip the Saturday rally with President Donald Trump in Macon.
Instead, Jackson planned to attend a separate Republican event in Cherokee County.
Trump still plans to visit Georgia again this weekend to stump for Jackson.
He will also campaign for Senate candidate Mike Collins during that visit.
Bottoms has worked just as hard to tie Jackson directly to Trump and his agenda.
Trump holds an approval rating of 41 percent among Georgia voters in the Tuesday poll.
In that survey, 58 percent said the country is headed in the wrong direction.
At the same time, 52 percent said Georgia itself is on the right track.
A Historic Candidacy Meets A Long Republican Hold
Bottoms served as mayor of Atlanta from 2018 to 2022 before this run.
She won the Democratic nomination in May in a seven person primary field.
She also served in Washington as a senior advisor to President Joe Biden.
A victory would make her the first Black governor in Georgia history.
It would also make her the first Black woman to serve as governor of any state.
Republicans have held the governor office in Georgia since 2003, a run of 23 years.
Breaking that hold would reshape how both parties think about the Deep South.
It would also give Black voters in Georgia a governor who comes from their own community.
National figures are now moving into the state for the closing argument.
Former President Barack Obama will appear in Georgia next week for Bottoms.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris will also appear in the state next week.
Both will campaign for Bottoms and for Senate candidate Jon Ossoff as well.
Our coverage of record early voting in Texas shows the same energy in other states.
Our look at the Michigan Senate race and Black voters shows a similar demand for trust.
And the court fight over California ballots shows what is at stake for access.
The Senate Race Offers A Contrast
The other statewide contest on the Georgia ballot looks far less close.
Senator Jon Ossoff leads Representative Mike Collins in the Monday survey by 51.8 to 44.9 percent.
Fewer than 3 percent of likely voters in that race said they remain undecided.
Independents back Ossoff by 56 percent to 35 percent in the same survey.
Analysts said that kind of split separates a competitive race from a comfortable one.
The contrast puts even more weight on the governor race as the true toss up.
Both campaigns took the debate stage at the beginning of October this year.
Those appearances did not appear to move the political needle in either race.
That stability means the final two weeks will be about turnout above all else.
Churches, campuses and neighborhood groups across Georgia now carry real power.
Every ride to the polls and every reminder call can move a tied race.
Black Georgians built the early vote surge that has this race deadlocked.
Whether Bottoms makes history now depends on whether that surge holds to the end.
