Urban City Podcast Group
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Urban City Podcast Group
Urban City Podcast Group
Major Takeaways:
Expert analysis and predictions for the NFL Thursday Night Football game between the Dolphins and Bills.
Free sports picks designed to give bettors an edge heading into the weekend.
College Football Week 3 bets highlighted with insights on key matchups and wagering strategies.
WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | NFL TNF Dolphins vs Bills Predictions | CFB Week 3 Bets | 9/18
We’re live. Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. This is Wager Talk today. I’m your host Andy Lang. It is Thursday,
jam-packed lineup. Giani’s back with an episode of the Steam Report. We’re going to talk NFL College Football and of
course, Major League Baseball. We’re going to dive into college football. We’re going to break down a Major League
Baseball game and of course, we’re going to preview Thursday Night Football. Uh Joe Reneer is going to break down the
game and I’m going to give you some props here at the end. So, if you’re betting tonight or this weekend, this is the show that gets you ready to turn a
profit. Thank you so much for joining us. Go and hit that like button. No time to waste. Let’s bring in Giani for the
Steam Report. Johnny, hope you had a good couple of days. It’s Thursday. I know you’re busy. We’re going to start off with NFL. What are we seeing?
Yeah, sorry. Just sending this out real quickly. Uh a play that came in. Uh so far tonight, believe it or not, since
it’s settled, it’s good two-way action. And you usually get that on double digit favorites in the NFL. Like, no one’s
really in any big rush to go out there and lay double digits. And if you’re getting double digits, no one’s probably
in a rush to go out there and back you. So, it’s one of those standalone games that it’s almost like a MMA main event
with a heavy favorite where you’re kind of uh forced to get a little creative.
And that’s what you’re seeing because everybody that’s betting Buffalo um tonight um they’re betting them in
different ways like they’re teasing them with a bunch of stuff for Sunday. They’re using them on moneyline parlays.
They’re betting them in the first half. They’re betting them team total over. Like they’re finding different ways to
bet Buffalo instead of having to lay that heavy chalk. Um, we know that
immediately, um, we saw sharp money come in on Buffalo on the look ahead. The
look ahead was like 9 1/2, 10 12. It got as high as like 13, 13 and a half. And
that’s where you saw takeback on the Miami side, which isn’t surprising. And that’s why I always say when you’re following your odds logic screen or at
the very least your your wager talk odds screen, make sure you click that matchup
and look at where that line was and when did it settle because a lot of times we’re seeing big movements in NFL but
it’s based on the look ahead because again this week while we’re watching week three games there’ll be lines for
week four that are being bet but the limits are low and that’s why you see some of these two three-point line
movements But then after everyone opens up, you’re not seeing much movement. And that’s kind of like here now. If
everyone’s 11 and a half across the board and you’re seeing pretty good two-way action again with the risk being
on the Buffalo side, like if Miami won this game outright, that would probably be the best possible outcome for the
sports books. You know what I mean? It’s a long shot. Um, but that’s pretty much what they’re doing. The total, they’re
betting it over. Um, no surprise there. Uh you saw Sharp Money come in on the over, but at 48 and a half and 49. Since
then, it’s been the public betting over 50, 50 and a half, 51s. So, they’re going to tie it in, tease it with the
over. Um in tonight’s game, that’s pretty much what’s going on. Again, not the sexiest standalone game, uh but
already getting some action. Uh let’s move to Sunday. Are we seeing anything major in Sunday? I know
quarterback injuries have, you know, really kind of dominated some of these big line moves, but uh most of the
numbers seem to be settled in. anything jumping off the page to you? The Colts. The Colts immediately the
look ahead got bet and then through that key number got hit as well. Like they laid the two look ahead. They laid the
three minus 120 and that’s why you’re looking at three and a halfs and fours. It’s it’s probably even impossible right
now to find a a three and a half out there. Same thing with Atlanta. The look ahead was two and a half and three.
That’s what got hit. And then they brought out four and a half on Monday and that got hit as well. And that’s why
you’re looking at five and a halfs right now. But and any shop that went to six, we saw takeback on Carolina. So six or
higher, you’re going to get some sharp money on Carolina, which for the books, that’s a good sign because now they know
if they keep getting one-sided Atlanta money, if they want to limit that risk a little, all they have to do is go to six
and there’ll be some takers there. They could write some some action on the other side. If you don’t see them go to
six, especially come Sunday, then rest assured they’re taking a position on
Carolina because it’s been one-sided Atlanta from the public and that’ll be one of the more one-sided teased games
as well. Um, Vegas. Vegas got a hit. Um, we actually bet Vegas today again. I’ll
share that with you. Okay. I bet Vegas for them at the look ahead at six and a half and six. And I figured, okay, they just asked me to go
and bet that here in cash because I I figured that line’s just not going to be available anywhere. So, it’s just someone that wants to take advantage of
the number. The most I think we got down like 1500 on it. Make a long story short, they brought it out at like five
and a half. That gets hit yesterday. Four and a half gets hit today. Take the
three and a half or like take the three and a half. the same group that was willing to take six and a half on the VA
on uh Vegas came back and also took three and a half on Vegas. That’s rare
because almost always you’re going to see the opposite happen where they get the six and a half and it goes down to
three and a half and they may buy and if they don’t get to three, they’ll buy back a little bit. Have a small middle
working. You know what I mean? Ain’t a great middle, but it ain’t the worst middle either. Uh but that did not happen here. Um, also the under, the
under, the look ahead was 47 and a half. The first limit that it took, they went right to 44 and a half. Since then, it
hasn’t gotten any action. So, don’t look at it as if it’s been steamed under because it’s a three-point move. It’s
nothing could be further from the truth. It took a limit or two to move at three full points. Um, Cincinnati, Minnesota
under 47 and a half and 46 and a half was the look ahead. They came in and hit the under 43 as well. Those are what you
want to pay attention to. What has followth through? I know I’m going long. Finally, Dallas and Chicago over over
the look ahead 46 and a half to 48. Now they’re hitting 48s, 49s, 49 and a halfs and 50s over. And finally on Monday
night, Detroit plus the six and a half and six. And that’s why you’re looking at five, five and a halfs right now. So
busy in NFL already, but it’s only going to get uh more action as we approach the weekend.
I know where I stand on this. I’m curious where you stand and where some of the groups that you work with back up
quarterbacks and how much they affect the lines and what the books do with them. I find that there can be an
incredible amount of volume or an incredible amount of value if you like
one of the backup quarterbacks because I feel like sometimes the books are a little vanilla with how they price some
of these line. So, there are some backup quarterbacks that I think are legit. What are some of the groups agree with? Bro, nothing could be further from the
truth. You’re 100% on point. You’re right. They are so mispriced. See,
because and and not everybody, not every quarterback is worth the same. And even though like we we look at like a a Tom
Brady during his era as a a you know, elite level a quarterback. Okay. The the
comparison is the drop off. Not how good Tom is, but what is the difference between Tom and his backup? Like what’s
the drop off? And I think that’s where a lot of the mispricing comes because we see these stud quarterbacks, we think
they’re they’re amazing, but maybe the drop off between number one and number two isn’t that great. Where in other
teams, you may be a bad quarterback to begin with, but then the drop off is also really steep. So, we underestimate
thinking, okay, this guy sucked already, so are they really losing anything? But if the backup is just 3x worse, then
that adjustment should be even greater. And I think you you know, you you could really take advantage of that. Marco
calls it the injured player theory. You know, I’ve learned a lot working with Marco all those years. And because we
overreact, we think players are worth more to the betting line than they are, especially quarterbacks. And if you’re
not getting ahead of an injury, which almost none of us can in today’s world with social media, you’re not getting ahead of the market. I think you take
advantage of it that way like you just touched on. Wait for the market to overreact and think the player’s worth
more than he is because then it’s the perfect storm for value like you touched on. Not only are you getting more points
than you should, but now you’re getting a motivated team because, bro, we got to step up. We got our number two today.
You can’t lax, you know what I mean? We ain’t got Brady behind center to pull us through. So, everybody else levels up
their game as well. So, it’s the perfect storm to get value on a team with an injured quarterback. I love I love that
handicap. I look for it all the time. Uh yeah, I think Browning is is
serviceable. Um I I I I Yes, there’s a drop off to Burrow to to Browning. How
big of it how big of a difference? I don’t know. I think Mariota played good last year uh for Washington. Um I know
you’re on Vegas, but uh I don’t know. There’s just some of these quarterback now. Carson Wentz I’m terrified of and
probably G probably Giani because I watched him here in Indianapolis and it was one of the most most horrible
quarterbacking I’ve ever seen. Uh, so I’m you’re gonna be hardressed to get me to bet on Carson Wentz, but I’m just
mentally scarred uh from some of the throws that I that I Can I touch real quickly on Sean’s
question? Great question. Said I I I know parlays are negative EV usually, but he got Colts three and a half,
Falcons three and a half, and Cardinals two and a half. And here’s what I’m talking about. Why it’s so hard to argue
that three-leg, fourleg, five leg parlays can be profitable. Because you had to place that at that same property
at that same time. And when I look at my board right now, I could get Arizona plus two and a half. So you got a bad
number on Arizona. Again, is that one point going to matter? Probably not. But just the fact that now I could get a
better number than what you had to lock it in with defeats the purpose of beating the market and placing plus CV
bets because again that it just it’s so hard to do when you have to place them all at the same time. Maybe you could
argue a two-legg parlay, you could beat the the the get a good number at the same property, but once you get into
those four leg, five leg parlays, it’s very hard to argue that at that exact moment of time, at that exact property,
you got the best numbers on your parlay. It’s It’s tough to do. Uh let’s move to college football. Uh
the one I talked about when you were gone is this Army and North Texas game that’s just like completely flip-flopped
here. Uh what was Army minus two and a half. Now it’s North Texas. It was minus
two and a half yesterday. We talked about it. Money’s coming in. That that seems like a crazy game. Any other games that you see uh some pretty aggressive
moves? Yeah, and I want to share a nugget that Marco shared on bet on it with that and he said now with the you know college
players getting paid and NIL and all of that, the servicemies are going to start falling further and further behind.
They’re just not going to be able to pay these guys to to to like except for the Patriots, you know what I mean? that
happen to be, you know, fivestar recruits. It’s going to be hard for them to compete and get out go out there and get players over the next, you know, few
seasons. So, I I could see why the market’s disagreeing there um with the Army side. Now, real quickly, uh weekday
games, Charlotte plus four and a half all the way down to that key number of three they took. Um then Friday, they
took Tulsa plus 13, Tulsa plus 12 and a half. You touched on North Texas game 309. We bet them at plus two and a half.
Um that’s now flipped. I haven’t seen any resistance yet. Like they’re not betting the opposite side trying to
middle that. 320 Miami Ohio plus 33 and a half. Um 340 Wisconsin minus 7 and
seven and a half. That’s opposite the public. I know a lot of money opposite Wisconsin. Michigan minus one and a half
and money line bet simultaneously as well as over 44 and 44 and a half. Duke
332 minus 2 and a half. ECU East Carolina plus the 7 and a half. Last
game on the board, Hawaii plus three and a half and three. And then today they came in on um Central Florida minus 6
and a half. And that one had already moved. So they came in again and hit the Central Florida side. That’s why you’re looking at seven. And they also went
under 51 and 50 and a half in Toledo, Western Michigan.
Let’s move to baseball. Yesterday, Giani, there was a a very there was a strange game. It was the Oakland Boston
game where like all the money and all the tickets were on Boston. the line was going the complete opposite direction.
We had a we had a chat here. It was like, oh no, when all the money’s going one way and the lines going the other
way, like look out. Sure. The game went to extra innings. Uh Boston ended up uh pulling it out. But um yeah, it was it
was an interesting it was an interesting game to monitor on on how much money was on one side yet the books were saying
Lions going the other way. So what are we seeing here on Major League Baseball slate today? All right. And real quickly for Michael
Mail, I know I don’t play three team 10point teasers. I used to do three team sixpoint teasers. They used to pay plus
180. There were books that made the mistake. So check out your your book. If they’re paying you three team teasers at
six points and you get plus 180, that’s like getting a two team sixpoint teaser
at even money. So if you just won it and go through 367, you got about a five and a half percent edge on every bet. So, if
you can get a three team six-point teaser at plus 180, you got a five and a half percent edge. Don’t mess that up.
Um, looking at baseball today, it’s the uglies. Uh, athletics 963, athletics
plus 140, plus 135 even. Uh, New York Mets 952, minus 120, -25.
Anti-public on Miami, Colorado, they went under 10 and a half. It’s now at 10. And the public’s betting that one
over like they have tomorrow’s paper. Um Seattle in a in a fight for the West
laying minus 105 and finally chalky but they bet the Yankees 967 and the over at
8 and a half even money. So it’s a little MLB for you as well today.
Uh yeah, real quick. Um I I got to have you tell the story about Contender Series. So on Tuesday I said that there
was a guy and he was part of our $5 Tuesday play. You better you you better better believe we were fading that guy.
said, “There’s a guy that has tattoos and social media following. I think that’s why he’s fighting because he’s terrible.” And then he went out and he
laid a complete egg. Can you tell everyone the inside sto We were in the production meeting for
that fight. And you saw that was the one fight I didn’t even get to go on and give a pick for cuz it was like we
thought we thought that by the time that the fight goes it’ll be like minus 7800. So, you know what I mean? Because it
kept going up and we were just confused why the lines not moving up like from 200, 300, 400. Why is it not doing that?
And I think it was the look of the guy cuz even the the the fighters that were in the main were like, dude, we got to get this dude a contract. We need him on
here. He his his message was you better love this. He wanted to be rich and
famous. Okay. But then he realized he don’t want to be rich. He just wants to
be famous. Came to that conclusion.
I didn’t bet enough on that. I didn’t bet enough on that fight. He said, “Keep your money, bro. Keep
your money. Bring me my fame. That’s all I need. You can have your cash.”
Oh, man. That’s my guy. You’re following him all the way to the PFL. Oh, I can’t I can’t wait to bet against
that guy. I don’t care where he’s fighting. Uh and uh Okay. Uh I have I have a very
important question for you. This has been a topic on the show that you’re not on. How do I pronounce your first name?
Yanni. It’s really Yanni. Okay. Yanni. My initial birth certificate if you what
said Gioanis. Yannis. Because it’s really St. Giannis. So they they wrote it like Gioanis. And in school I used to
be embarrassed first day every day every year. They’d be like Joannis and they would think let’s start making fun of
me. And then I got to like little league and I begged my parents to change my name. Like please legally change my
name. Give me an American name. And the closest thing was John. I was like St. John and that’s what they put on my
birth on like redid a birth certificate. But it’s really Yanni. That’s really Yanni. Okay. Yanni. Okay. I got you. People get
confused because my legal name is Andy and they just automatically think it’s Andrew and my insurance call you that
sometimes. I call you that. My Well, my insurance company did it once and I had a claim and they were like, “You’re not Andrew Lang. We wrote
your name down wrong.” And they tried to argue because they wrote my name down wrong. So, all right. We now have offici
Yes. Blocked. Uh uh. Yes. We all We all now have confirmation. Yanni.
Yes, sir. Yanni, we got you. All right, Yanni, tell everyone what you have up on this Thursday tonight. I know it’s not the sexiest
game, but I got a 5%. Listen, if if the market if the matchup warrants it, I’m going to fire it. Again, you want to
wait for the busiest time of the weekend, hit them on Saturday and Sunday, but it warrants it. Again, you
don’t go crazy because it’s only 1% more than my 4% and we only bet a quarter of that. So the the the just real lightly
just to to put in perspective, if I have a $10,000 bankroll, I recommend my guys bet $100 on a 4 percent. They’re bet 125
on a 5%. So I’m not downplaying it, but I just don’t want you to go crazy. With that said, currently number one in NFL
and college football combined for 2025. I got my Saturday package up for college football. I got my Sunday package up for
the NFL, but we’re starting tonight with a 5% on the Dolphins and Bills game. So
uh join me and let’s do some damage. Let’s have a big couple days. So far so good. Thanks for having me, Andy Lang.
And best of luck to you, my brother. You too, Yanni. Let’s do this, brother.
Let’s have a great Thursday. Right. So, that was good. So, yes.
Listen. Hey, I’ve heard I’ve heard his name pronounced a bunch of different ways, but now we we heard it from him. I feel embarrassed that I haven’t asked
him uh before this. That’s that was the big mistake. The big mistake was just not asking him before. My god, he’s on
the show every day. What are we doing here? So, all right, let’s bring on now. I know how to pronounce Joe Reeri’s
name. Uh, Joe’s got an easy name. Is it Joe? Yes, it’s it’s Joe. Let’s Let’s
bring on Joe Reeri. Joe, happy Thursday. How are you today? Uh, what’s happening? Uh, Andy, I’m
shocked it took you that long to figure out uh VR’s real name there and how to pronounce it.
I I feel failed. That was really bad on my part. I think I just kind of got into
the Well, he never corrected me. That was the other thing. I just called him that and you know just tell me how
however you want me to pronounce it. It’s like uh how Bjon Robinson everyone called him Bejon and after like how long
in the NFL he was like by the way everyone’s pronouncing my name wrong like what’s up dude. Yeah you could have chimed in just a little
bit sooner. Hey man what’s going on? All right. Yeah. No names are secondary.
Yeah. Uh so we’re going to talk Thursday night football here. We got this Bills and Dolphins game and then we’re going to
we’re going to talk Tulsa and uh your boys Oklahoma State. Let’s start with NFL.
NFL is king. I I know what the spread is and we all know the story. Let me ask you this.
When was the last time a coach was on a big time hot seat like this and the team
just rallied around him and was like, “Nope, we’re gonna fight our tails off on the road on a short week and we’re
gonna save this guy’s job.” it kind of feels like it doesn’t really happen here. What’s your breakdown on this
game? Well, I I can tell you down here in in South Florida from the guys that I’ve talked to that cover this team, Andy, uh
they’ve been trying to do everything in their power to get rid of him uh for a while now. and for some reason he’s
still there. But that depending on what happens here tonight, uh Steven Ross,
the owner of the Miami Dolphins, there was talk of there being an ultimatum
this year with not just him, but the uh the GM Greer as well. They had a lot of
malcontent in that locker room a year ago. And namely, one of them was, you
know, Ramsay, who’s no longer there. He’s with Pittsburgh. Uh but they still have Tyreek Hill. he was the other guy
that was the big issue and they still him and Tua can’t get on the same page. So yeah, lack of leadership, guys
showing up late, uh I mean you name it, I have heard it here. And judging from
the fact that you’ve allowed not one but two teams here, one being led by Drake
Navy, other by Danny Dimes and this team has allowed them to score what wrap up
33 points in each one of those games. What is Josh Allen going to put on them
here tonight? This offense of Buffalo short week. They haven’t won in Buffalo
and Orchard Park since 2016. Uh this is either going to be extremely ugly here
or Buffalo is going to just go through the motions here and just hurry up and try and get the win and get a little
extra rest before next week because the injuries are piling up on the defensive side of the ball for them.
I I I don’t even know what to do side to I mean 50 and a half is monstrous. You
know Buffalo’s going to do their port park and Miami even get there and what do you do with double digits in in the
past? Do you like do you like laying points with this or you just say ah that’s too many points. I I I can’t get
there. Short weeks I never look at anybody but home teams anyway. Uh but I would cut
this game in half Andy. Uh I think that what’s going to happen here is the Buffalo Bills are going to do what
they’ve done to both the Jets, right, uh lesser teams. They’re going to boat race
them early at home in Orchard Park. Uh if you’ve noticed, Buffalo is all of a sudden becoming a power running team
now. They are going to run the ball down your throat. And it’s not going to be just Josh Allen tucking it and running
it. It is going to be everybody. Davis, it’s going to be Cook. It’s they have
done an amazing job and gone out of their way to make sure that they can run the ball with that offensive line and
not have to drop Josh Allen back. So the number is seven early in here. The idea
that Miami is somehow going to go toe-to-toe and try to go point for point
with Buffalo. I just don’t see it happening. They’re going to try because they can’t play keep away. That’s
impossible. So, I’m going to take Buffalo to have a double- digit lead in the first half and then use that running
game to milk the clock in the second half and get out of there without any more injuries.
I I agree with that assessment. I thought Buffalo kind of showed their cards last year towards the end. Hey, we
need to run. We We can’t get Josh Allen dropping back 50 times a game. I I drafted James Cook in my big my big
fantasy league, so I was a believer in this. So, all right, we’re looking at the first half there. Uh Tulsa Oklahoma
State. Um listen, good news is I don’t think Oklahoma State has to worry about getting beat by 66 points this week.
They are the favorite. Uh they’re facing a Tulsa team. They got this total big
total here 54 and a half. Uh I believe in your team’s offense. I don’t know if you believe in Tulsa’s offense. What’s
your take on this game? It this is awful. find, you know, just find anything else to do but watch this
game here. Uh I mean, listen, we’re watching the end of the Mike Gundy era
at Oklahoma State. Whether we like it or we don’t, it’s just run its course. Uh
and he’s been there forever. He’s been there over 20 some odd years. Uh this whole NIL situation has changed
everything. He just doesn’t have the players. Uh, and not that Tulsa does, but this is a huge big brother, little
brother situation where they’re only about an hour and 20 minutes apart these
campuses with Stillwater and Tulsa here. So, Tulsa’s actually a pretty decent
team. And I mean, Oklahoma State’s lost 10 of their last 11 games. The only win
they have had in that stretch was UT Martin uh in the opener, a 20point win,
and even that wasn’t put away right away. So yeah, I I like Tulsi. There’s
no way I can lay this many points with Oklahoma State who now is already on to their backup quarterback who struggled
last week. Obviously, everybody struggled there against Oregon. But it’s
just not the same Gundy and the same aura where oh Gundy at home in this spot
against lesser teams. It was it’s an automatic cover. Those days are long gone. It’s the beginning of the end for
Gundy and Oklahoma State. There’s only one way I would look and that is take these damn points here and do not watch
the game at all. Plus, they got Balor next week. Uh their Big 12 opener. So,
yeah, they might very well look past Tulsa here and that would be unfortunate if they lost.
I was looking at Tulsa over their team total at 21 and a half and I was like, man, you couldn’t give me 20 and a half.
You had to you had to move it a half point over there. I have not watched your guys’ defense. Trying to play
defense against Oregon is just everybody’s going to struggle except some of the the top teams. I don’t know.
21 and a half. Is your defense good enough to hold them under? Cuz I lean under at the 21 and a half. Uh you’d be surprised. I think Tulsa can
uh can hang here. I thought they did a really good job against Navy. Uh as a matter of fact, that game was close
until the second half where they uh they got a couple of extra touchdowns in the fourth quarter and pulled it away. But I
call me crazy. I mean, 42 uh 42 to 23 against uh Navy last week. They were
around that game a lot. So, I I would not be shocked if they can put more than three touchdowns on the board against
Oklahoma State. All right. And Daryl has to jump in. He’s no longer called Danny Dimes. Uh
the Colts now, we we call him Indiana Jones. I don’t know if you’ve heard this now or not. It’s it’s lowhanging fruit,
but it is kind of a fun a fun nickname here. I have not embraced it yet because it’s it’s so corny that I don’t even
know. Can we give him Can we give him three games maybe before we uh start start
anointing him? Um and just impromptu, we had a question yesterday and uh then today. Do you have any thoughts on this
Michigan game? What is it? Michigan Nebraska. I have not researched it, but we had a couple questions on that. We
didn’t get to it earlier. I don’t know if you know anything about this game. Yeah, to me it was a uh under game. That’s where I looked at it from a total
perspective here with these two uh defenses. Although, I mean, listen, Ryola has been good. You’ve got uh the
problem that I have with college football right now, Andy, and these young quarterbacks, these studs, is that
they’re millionaires now, Andy. We’ve got 18 and 19 year old college quarterbacks who are raking in seven
figures in NIL money here. And you know, if you win a game, great. If you lose the game, oh well. Uh, we’re still
millionaires here. So, it’s it’s a different dynamic now in college football. You got two young good
quarterbacks, but I think the defenses are going to ring true here. Man, I like the under with Nebraska and Michigan.
Uh, Joe, your your show is awesome uh with Pre and Art Dea. Tell us about that and tell everyone what you have up at
Wager Town. Yeah, apparently I drew the short straw there, so I got to do the show with the
press. Uh, thank God for Art. uh to keep us sane there. My goodness. In fact, the
show is up already, guys. You can check it out. The best betting show uh ever there. It’s on the YouTube page. Art has
a lot of information about this Miami Buffalo game from the Westgate perspective uh in the show. So, make
sure you guys check that out. We’ve got all the best bets uh locked and loaded in the show as well. And uh I got not
one but two Major League Baseball best bets up and ready to roll here tonight. We’ve been crushing it in the MLB. Now
is the time of year, these final two weeks, Andy, where the lines are soft. Uh the books are sleeping, and we are
cashing a whole lot of tickets with it. Joe, what’s been working for you in MLB? I always I’m always interested. Is it
sides, totals, a a certain couple teams, just a little bit of everything? I always like
lot of situational spots this time of year. There are clearly teams that are
have their tickets booked on cruises and they are ready to go. They got tea times lined up and there are those that are
still battling. A lot of first fives bullpens as far as I’m concerned not to
be trusted on any team so far this year. So if you got an edge starting pitching,
take advantage of it while you can here in the final two weeks. Joe Reeri, two MLB plays up. Go grab
those. Joe, thank you so much. Always good to hear from you. Take care. Have a great Thursday. Appreciate it, man.
All right, we got Dave Mason coming up real quick. My NFL props pack is up. We are in play tonight with an official
best bet. Uh this pack includes every play from tonight’s game all the way through Sunday, all the way through
Monday. We’ve hit 59% of our props through the first two weeks. And I could not be happier with that number. That
number is sustainable. That number is profitable. Uh we obviously don’t want to be losing, but you also don’t want to
be winning too big uh on a percentage because you know regression is coming. So I’m really happy with where we’re
sitting with props. Uh it’s a grind. It’s a grind. It’s a grind week in and week out. So 59% I would I would be
ecstatic if we could do that every week. So one price, one pack, wt.buzzal.
Let’s get the profit started tonight in this Thursday night game. You get that and you get all of our props all the way
through Monday Night Football. All right, let’s bring on Dave Mason. Uh Dave, I got several things to ask you.
Got to ask about uh where we can beat Dave Mason. But uh Yanni brought up
something interesting today and I wanted to ask you about how how you move lines or adjust lines. He was talking about
how Buffalo’s probably in a lot of money line parlays. There’s a lot of first taps. There’s a lot of teasers. When you
have a team that’s like piled on in all those different, you know, types of areas, what do you do with the overall
spread for the full game? Yeah, it’s it’s a tricky one. Um, he’s
right. I mean, I was just looking at that action earlier and this is a huge, you know, we I always tweet out the
needs on on the spread, but you know, it it gets so more much more granular that when you granular than that when you’re
talking about the teaser liability and the uh moneyline parlays and all that stuff. I mean there often there there’s
so much money on these teasers and money line parlays that often there’s more money on that than there are straight
bets on the spread andor money line. Um so
that that definitely comes in into play a lot especially with the teasers. Sometimes you’ll see like minus nine you
know plus money and stuff like that. That’s kind of combating teasers right there because you’re trying to prevent
people to tease them through two two key numbers um to get more value. Um, but
you know, a game like tonight, it’s it’s only 11 and a half, even though
everybody’s on the Bills, and that’s because not everybody’s on the Bills. The Sharps have taken the uh Dolphins. I
mean, they they hit the Dolphins at 12 and 13, I believe. So, you know, you’re
you’re playing whack-a-ole. you know, you’re you’re you’re trying to cover your exposure on the the sharps, but you
know, you’re giving more value on the public and then the moneyline parlays and the teasers. So, where you can’t
give too much value on those sharps or else they just pound you for big money and they’ll key that in in parlays. Not
not that much, but sometimes they will if you’re all off on round robins and whatnot. So, so yeah, it’s it’s like
whack-a-ole. All right, so we play beat Dave Mason. Where’s Where’s the vulnerability?
Where’s all the bets going? My guess was going to be a Bills and Packers teaser.
It seems like the most obvious play that the public will be all over. Yeah, I mean that that that’s a popular
teaser. Bucks are popular teaser. Seahawks are popular teaser. Packers, of course, tonight, like I said, what what
let me see what what percentage of teaser money is on tonight. 95% of the cash on teasers tonight is on the Bills.
99% of 99% of money line parlay is on the bill. So that just tells you, you
know, and that’s that’s a lot of volume, too. There’s so much volume on it. So yeah. Um yeah, those teasers are
something else. What else? The Sharps. Let me see what the Sharps are on. Uh Miami, like I said, 12 and 13 tonight. A
little bit of Browns plus eight. Steelers minus one a little bit there. 49ers – one and a half or better. Jags –
115 outright. Rams plus 174 outright. Falcons over I think that’s 43 and a
half. Raiders under 47 and a half. Saints under 42 and Chiefs over 44 and a
half. So that’s the sharp stuff. Um but yeah, those teasers are huge. I mean I I placed one of those teasers too this
weekend. So and speaking of teasers, I mean I don’t know if you saw but some books are offering like minus 135 on two
team sixpoint teasers now which is outrageous. We’re still at minus 110 or minus 115 depending of whether you’re
crossing um key numbers or not. So minus 135 is this it’s gross.
Oh, those of us that live in states with with the DraftKings and the FanDuels have noticed, Dave,
yeah, but you know what? If a player gets hurt, if if a player gets hurt, you might get your props refunded, though. I
mean, it’s the banana in a tail fight, man. It is smoking mirrors, you know. Give me a break.
Um, yeah. Listen, let me touch on that. You know why I can’t stand that? I I can’t stand that rule for for a bunch of
reasons, but one of them is it just gives them the the ability to just make stuff up as they go along.
Well, yeah. I mean, can we have some rules, please? Yeah. Well, you know, listen, I like
I’ve said a zillion times on on your show here, I’m more of a marketing guy, so I get it. I mean, we’ve done kind of
PR stuff like that in the past, but it we learned it bites you in the rear end
because, you know, the next, you know, you might, okay, we we we’re going to know action unders to be nice people and
everybody tweets it and all everybody’s happy for for one day, but then people want that’s not enough. They want this.
Well, my under uh it heard the point spread and this, you know what I mean? So, one person’s happy, but other people
aren’t happy that that that prop had something to do with a big quarterback goes out and next time someone gets
hurt. Well, where’s my refund? You know, there on the So, it’s better just to find years back like after COVID, we
were real friendly with stuff and after co’s like, you know what, it’s a no-win situation. Let’s just concentrate on
what we do best. If they want to have those PR big PR things on a Monday night football game, cool. But, you know what?
our players are getting a lot better juice. I mean, that’s why they can afford to do stuff like that non-stop.
It’s because they’re they’re killing you on the juice. So, you know, yeah, whatever.
Uh I mean, listen, Dave, you know how many unders I’ve lost in garbage time? I don’t get a refund.
Of course, I don’t get I don’t get a refund. The guy cashes an under in the last 20 seconds. Yeah. I mean, bigger more bigger things.
I mean, we’re all we’re all victims these days. victim mentality’s at an all-time high. We’re all, you know, it’s
like, dude, you know, that’s the way the ball bounces and and those things even out. Those things even out the end of
the year, man. You know, you you might you might have a bad beat, but for every bad beat, you’ve had a lucky win that
you shouldn’t have won. So, all that stuff evens out the end of the year. That’s what you have to that’s why I
still have fights I bet in the past that I think, you know what, I lucked out there. So, the next time I’m not going to win. I still do a little bit, but I
don’t blame the books. Oh, I’ve lost UFC fights where the guy tested positive for steroids a couple
weeks later. It was like, I knew that guy didn’t hit that hard. Um, uh, I want to move to college football. Where’s the
action this week? Where’s some of the sharp money? Uh, sharp stuff tonight. Tonight,
two-way. Rice minus two, Charlotte plus three. North Texas minus 7 and a half.
BYU -6, ECU plus 7 and a half, Arkansas – 7, Nevada plus 11, Sam, Houston State
+ 41. Too many too many totals to mention. Every other damn total has some sharp action on it. Um, liabilities,
USC, Louisiana Tech, our biggest liabilities at the moment. Highest bet count, Oklahoma by far. Then you got
Miami, Florida, Illinois, and Utah. Um, last thing before I let you go here
in NFL, have there been any teams that you have made some pretty aggressive changes to like
power rankings that to start the season and hey, even though we’re two weeks in, we’re going to adjust them pretty big or
are you guys still kind of standing where you were at the beginning of the season? Are you just saying, “Hey, the markets dictate where these lines go?”
Do do the Bengals count? Yeah, they count. Of course they count. Yeah, of course they dropped. of course,
you know, what with Joe Burrow, um, they plummeted in the power rank. I mean, KC,
you know, the season’s young. Um, but but they’re dropping. You know, it’s
they they’re dropping for the beginning of the season. Um, so they’re they’re a high-profile team that they’re their
rankings are definitely dropping and they’re still up there only two games in. They still have Mahomes under center, Andy Reid at on the sideline.
So, u, but they’re definitely going south as of now. But of course there’s teams for every team going south there’s
teams going up like like the Colts like the Packers. So a lot of lot of stock up
stock down for sure. Uh it’s been fun watching the Colts. I got to be honest. Like I’m still I’m
still I’m still nervous. I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe they are this good. Um it’s it it’s been fun.
It’s been refreshing. They got their first road game this week. But uh yeah, I’ll enjoy it while I can. I just need
to see a little bit more before I’m going all in on They’re our biggest Super Bowl winner at the moment. So, uh,
we’re rooting for him. Really? Wow. People People believed in Daniel Jones.
How about No, our biggest winner. Did I say loser or winner? They’re our biggest winner. So, if they won the Super Bowl, Yeah.
Sorry about that. Maybe I said loser, but biggest I’m using the biggest winner. So, if they won the Super Bowl
at this moment, Super Bowl is today and they won, that would be our biggest win. Wow.
Yeah. But there wasn’t a lot of pre-season action on the Colts, so but uh you know
Yeah. Yeah. I I don’t doubt that. All right. What’s Dave Mason betting this weekend? What do you like? Uh well, I did a teaser. I did one of
those um you know, square teasers that everybody does, but hell, I I can’t Sometimes you look at it, you just can’t
resist, man. Bucks. Bucks and Seahawks. I’m teasing them down six point, you know, six and a half down to half laying
on the Bucks and Seahawks laying one and a half again. minus 115 at betonline.ag
as opposed to minus 135 elsewhere. Uh for 49ers minus two and a half. I took
the Lions plus five. They’re now plus four and a half. So uh that’s what I’m on for NFL. Maybe going to add some
more. Probably hop on some more of those teasers. I don’t know, man. I usually try to stay away from those, but some of
these just look too damn good. I know. They’ve been good through the first two weeks, I guess. If any
Yeah, we’re getting killed. We We need to win some NFL money. We got killed two the first two Sundays of the season.
Somehow I I think you’re going to be okay. Yeah. This is This is where it turns around
for old bet. So, all right. Where can we find you at and tell us about Bet Online. Uh Dave Mave Mason B on Twitter. Come on
over to bedline.ag. I mentioned our great teaser odds. I mean, there’s so much action on these teasers. You really
really have to pay attention to what your book is charging you on the juice on those teasers. We offer we also open
our lines up earlier than mo just about every other book. Usually arms race between us and a very respected book in
Vegas to see who opens the odd up first for next week. And all sorts of different markets. We just we just added
to this morning uh Jimmy Kimmel’s replacement. We have Greg Gfield the
plus 400 favorite Theo Von plus 500 right behind him. They’re the two
favorites. Then down the opposite end of the spectrum, the long shots are Scott Beao at 250 to1 and Stephen Cobear at
300 to one. So poor Stephen Cobear can’t even Scott Beo has a better chance of replacing Jimmy Kimmel over Steven
Cobar. Do you have a a nun? No. Do we need one?
I I would I would think that’d be the favorite. I think this is that’s the thing with these late night shows. There
aren’t replacements waiting. This is a tough model these days. people are watching. Who do you know staying up at
at at 11:00, 11:30 to watch these shows? I think these are I think these are I
think think networks are getting thrown a lifeboat to get out of these monster contracts. It’s so expensive to make and
that’s the thing like remember way back when it was exciting. Who’s going to be next? Is it Leno? Is it? Who’s taking
over? There’s no there’s no excitement to take over these shows. I think they’re disappearing like Dustin. Yeah,
there’s Yeah, I mean Yeah, there’s just that who who else stays up that late to listen to I they’re not just not
entertaining anymore anymore. I sound like old head, but you know the Johnny Carson‘s and Letterman of yester year.
They they they they were good. These guys, you know, it’s just And who’s staying up too late? Too much competition, too much on late
at night and whatever. Watch it on YouTube the very next day. Yeah, exactly. Watch the highlights,
right? Watch highlight. Yeah. Yeah. So, all right, Dave Mason,
you can bet on Jimmy Kimmel’s next replacement. I respect it, Dave. I respect it. Uh, the the king of the
props, Dave Mason, betonline.ag. And he’s not joking about the juice when when they released those those NFL
teasers at the beginning of the season for for uh some of these u some of these
legal books. Good lord. Can’t believe it. Can’t believe it. So, uh, all right, let’s do All Around the World and then
we’re going to bring in Dan because we got to talk a little bit about Survivor on a Thursday because the Bills are a big time option here. So, let’s do a
couple let’s do three free plays here. Oh, and I’m going to break down uh some props for Thursday night football. So,
let’s do uh free plays. Uh we’ll start with the Padres’s and the Mets. Padres’s over four and a half on the team total
this morning. It was a plus money. There’s no way that stays there. Tong is pitching for the Mets. He’s been awful. 11.2 2 innings. 13 hits and 11 earned
runs in those 11.2 innings. Padres’s have gone over this total three out of the last four. This theory worked for us
yesterday. Yeah, it took extra innings, but we got there. So, let’s take a look at that one. We’re going right back to Nolissa Smith over eight and a half
points. She went under the last game. I said come back and play it again. I’m going to stick to my guns. She’s gone over in five out of the last seven and
11 out of the last 14 against the Storm. She has never had back-to-back games under this total against the Storm.
Nelissa Smith over the points. Ralph Michael Special Mariners at Royals. Yuri, yes, have a run in the first
inning. Royals 10 and0 run. Yurfy. Mariners 4-0 run on the Yurphy. 6 and
one away games. Yurfy. So, we got a lot of trends saying that yes, there’s going to be a uh a run or a run here in the
first inning. So, let’s do some Thursday night football props. These are some leans. I’m going to take a look at Josh
Allen and I’m going to take an under on Josh Allen. I’m going to take his under 271 and a half passing. Last week in a
big win, he only threw for 148 yards and they rushed for 224
yards. Uh the Dolphins have faced more rush attempts this season than any other
team. Short week defense that’s faced a ton of rush attempts. Uh I’m going to
take him uh to go under his passing yards. I just don’t see a huge passing game. Not a lot of pass attempts. I’m
going to take him under uh under half an interception. He hasn’t thrown an interception this season. Miami, no
interceptions this season. So, we get a uninterested pass defense. Taking the under on that one. Let’s do a same game
parlay plus 144. James Cook anytime touchdown score and I’m going to put
that with the Bills over 30 and a half on their team total. Cook has three TDs this season. Miami has given up 33
points in both of their games and Buffalo has scored 41 and 30 in the last two games. So I what I wanted to do is
try and get the James Cook anytime touchdown up to a better number because
odds are they’re going to be in close and James Cook is going to score. So that was at minus 170, but we’ve put the Bills team total over and we get that
thing up to plus 144. I mentioned yesterday uh Ray Davis over 24 and a
half. I do have to mention that again. Dolphins have given up 156 122 yards rushing in the first two games. defense
short notice or a short week and like I said, they faced more rush attempts. Short week when you faced as many rush
attempts as them, I just don’t think they’re going to have the juice in the second half. Ray Davis only had one carry week one, nine carries for 24
yards last week. Expect Ray Davis to have a really nice total. I might look at playing his total live at halftime.
If Buffalo’s up a couple scores, see what the number is on Ray Davis. You might be able to ladder him up to 25,
30, 40 yards. So, those are your Thursday night prop plays for tonight.
All right, let’s uh let’s bring on Dan because we got to talk a little bit about um
we got to talk Survivor because this is the first Thursday game. I think we’ve had a pretty obvious play. Now, okay,
technically it’s a divisional game on Thursday, but always worries you a little bit, but
there there is one team in this division that seems dead dead. Uh and they’re playing tonight. So, so yeah, divi
divisional games are worrisome, Andy, but um I don’t I don’t know if the worry is uh is quite there. The the the thing
is is here I’ll pull up the the odds logic live screen so we can uh we can get a
peek at Does it just say Miami stinks? Did they do they even put the points or it just says Miami stinks?
Yeah, it it doesn’t even say it just says uh Miami is awful. Um no, 11 and a half. Uh this thing actually we have
seen a little bit of buyback on Miami surprisingly. I I don’t get it. But also, this is a monster number. Um,
you’re just looking this week like what other ones jump off the board at you for Survivor. The number one Survivor play
this week is going to be this one right here. It’s going to be New Orleans against Seattle. That’s that’s going to be the one where everyone’s taking
Seattle a thousand%. Because because when else do you take Seattle? It’s getting to fade New
Orleans. And here’s the worry for me is uh yeah, Spencer Rattler on the road. Is
he probably going to beat the Seahawks? No, but one of these weeks the the chaos, holy [ __ ] how did they beat them
game could come and would it be the craziest thing in the world for the holy [ __ ] oh my god, I can’t believe they lost game to be a New Orleans Saints
game. It’s going to be a New Orleans Saints game, it’s going to be a Panthers game or um you know, it’s going to be a
Jaguars game, you know. Okay. And and I was even mulling around, Andy, like, do
we just go and put Buffalo in now and move on with the week or you scroll down further here, Andy? I
kind of want to use Buffalo next week, they play New Orleans next week. You know what I mean? That’s the things. So, we’re looking to
next week and next week it’s hard. You got Seahawks, Cardinals. That’s tough. Viking Steelers, that’s going to be
tough. Unless WZ looks That’s overseas. That’s Yeah. Overseas overseas game. Yeah,
Commanders, Falcons, that one’s tough. Now, Browns at Lions, uh, that could be the the monumental number one.
Panthers, Patriots, that could be tough. Chargers, Giants, maybe the Chargers, but they’re on the road. Eagles, Bucks,
I think that one is tough. Titans, Texans, Colts, Rams, Jags, 49, Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, Ra, the These are all
tough games next week. I think I want to save my Buffalo for next week. I think Buffalo is is is the obvious pick. So,
let’s go through the nominees for this week. I have Colts at Titans road game,
divisional game, but man, I don’t know. It’s also the first road game for this Colts. I mean,
again, you’re you’re not taking them on the spread, but to be honest with you, you know, over a field goal for
Tennessee with the team that has now been anointed, I’m sorry, blocked, but
uh, you know, I’m looking to fade the Colts. I’ll probably fade the Colts every week until I get to say, “I told you so.” Um, so you know, I if it if
they had played a road game already, Andy, probably, you know what I mean? But the fact that this is their first
road game after being anointed as, you know, Daniel Jones has found his landing
spot. Um, that worries me a little bit. Uh, move on to Jets at Buccaneers.
Buccaneers facing Tyrod Taylor. And then you get this Buccaneers offensive line that they’re down to they’re down three.
It’s tough. It’s It’s really tough. You could get sneaky. Yeah, go ahead.
I I was going to say maybe you’re thinking the same thing like do I just risk my entire entry and go Jags? Like I
think Houston is really bad. I think their defense has been getting by and this whole entire team has been
getting by on CJ Strad’s rookie year for two seasons now, man. So did you watch Jacksonville blow it
against Jake Browning? Do we I mean that that one’s gross.
That one gross. Um the Raiders could be pretty terrible, but I I think Mariota is a little bit
underrated. So, there’s that one. I got to be honest, I’m staring at this Falcons Panthers game. That Panthers
team is horrific. Robinson and Alier could run for 250 yards. There’s there’s a chance that
they have really bad against the run. 3839 minutes of possession against that Panthers
team. Panthers are 0 and2. And even though that was a one-sore game last week, they needed an on-size kick and a
last second score. And here’s my thing, D. I’ve used the Cardinals and the Cowboys, so I’ve snuck by. Boy, if I
could use the Falcons and I could go into week four knowing I’ve only used the Cardinals, the Cowboys, and the Falcons. I’m feeling pretty damn good. I
don’t trust the Seahawks. I think you I think you’ve won me over. I think I’m going to hold on to Buffalo. Um, I don’t think I’m going to burn it
tonight. Uh, I think you need them next week. I think you need them next week. We’ll finalize We’ll finalize our picks
tomorrow when we do the official I will survive picks. But I’m I’m heavily leaning this Atlanta
game or I just risk it all and go Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville wins
outright this week. One and a half point favorite. Basically a pick them game right there. Um, I’m between those two,
Andy. I mean that that would be the oh my god I have every team that I could possibly want left if I get Jacksonville
home. So I I I get Could you throw Chiefs at the
Giants? Are the Chiefs gonna go 0 and three? The crazy thing is I think this is the Chiefs get right spot, but Giants, it’s
a really if you if you back the Giants, even if you take Giants against the spread, like you’re really buying the
Giants as high as you possibly can buy him coming off a near overtime win against the Cowboys uh
against a horrific defense. Chiefs. Yeah, exactly. And two tough games.
This is Chiefs. Do they win this game or do they go under their season win total and maybe not make the playoffs if they
lose this game? And and honestly, I listened to a podcast where they’re making the case that Travis Kelce has literally cost
them two games and a wide receiver. He has single-handedly like cost them
and it’s like he’s not going to be this bad all season. So, I don’t know. We’ll we’ll make our final we’ll make our
final decision, but I think we’re both going to hang on to the Bills. Yeah, I’m not I’m not going to use the Bills
tonight. I’m keeping that bullet in the chamber. Maybe we’ll kick ourselves, but uh next week’s like a slam dunk. Easy
Bills. Yeah, cuz here here’s the thing. Like, let’s say we use the Bills next week, but then we lose next Let’s say we use
the Bills this week, but we lose next week because we already used them. We’re in the same Doesn’t matter. We lost. Yeah, exactly. It
doesn’t matter. So, all right. All right. Chad says, “Andy determined apparently
to be wrong about Seattle for all season. I don’t know what my strong stance was
in Seattle, but Chad, that is funny. Uh, that that is funny. I listen, I just
when every how what you think 50% of the the tickets are going to be on Seattle
this week. Could we reach 50%. I mean, for Survivor, that’s going to be the pick of the week. That’s
Yeah. People are laying the spread, you know, but but that’s going to be the Survivor pick.
Okay. All right. All right. Well, thank you so much for joining us. Dan and I will get you all the Survivor picks tomorrow, guys. Tomorrow’s football
Friday. Johnny is coming in strong with uh with National Football League and College Football Steam right before
Teddy Covers is going to be here. Marco is going to be here. Kelly in Vegas is going to be here talking the uh Westgate
Super Contest. Dan and I will make our official Survivor picks. We’re going to get you locked and loaded. So, tomorrow is a huge, huge show every Friday. It is
the best football show to get you ready for the weekend. So, make sure you’re joining us. It’s a great show today,
guys. Thank you so much live chat. You guys killed it as always. Please hit the like button. It really helps us out.
Helps the algorithm out. We had a little polarizing talk earlier about the the Bengals and the Vikings. Post in the
comments section if you’re rolling with the Bengals and Vikings. Two teams starting backup quarterbacks already in
week two. Um so we’ll we’ll talk about that game a little bit tomorrow and see where the line ends up. Uh thank you to
everybody. Have a great day. Good luck on your bets tonight. NFL prop pack is up. The first official play for clients
go tonight. wt.busal. Good luck on your plays. We’ll see you tomorrow. Take care.
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