Urban City Podcast Group
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Urban City Podcast Group
Urban City Podcast Group
Major Takeaways:
Sharp vs. Public Disagreement: Experts identify the Broncos vs. Colts game as a major split, with the public heavily backing the Broncos while sharp money is coming in on the Colts.
Books’ Biggest Needs: According to SuperBook’s John Murray, the books need the Titans, Bears, Seahawks, and Panthers to cover their spreads to balance the heavy public money on their opponents.
Top Prop Bet: James Conner’s rushing yards over is a top sharp play, leveraging the Panthers’ historically poor run defense that was exploited in Week 1
What’s going on everyone? It’s Wager Talk last call. I am so excited that we’ve got week two underway and all the
numbers, everything you need to know. It’s all right here on Wager Talk stack show as always today as we’ve got Yanni
the Greek live from Las Vegas taking you behind the counter telling you everything his sharp groups are on.
Carmine also gonna break things down for us. John Murray, Superbook, you know him, you love him. He’s telling us the
needs on the book because if you want to be on the winning side, we always know the book tends to win more than we do.
And then Press, he’s got his show at 1:00 when you can watch Press go live and he could talk about all the
different games on this slate that he’s watching and you can watch him have a meltdown. He’ll talk about the show, he’ll tell you what action he’s on,
stacked and loaded, ready to go. I’ve got some prop edges as well. Let’s start though with the man, Yanni the Greek.
Yanni, happy week two. Good morning. Good morning. Busy morning. Busy morning as always. How was UFC last
night by the way? How’d you Good. I had a good I turned a profit in UFC. Lost in boxing with Canelo. I I hit
the undercard bet but lost my Canelo bet. And uh you know what’s crazy?
I It’s exactly how I expected it to go with the scorecards in his favor. If
only one more round was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw even though he really lost that fight.
Like it was that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo.
Like if he doesn’t get finished, I didn’t think they were going to give Crawford the decision. It came very close to that happening. So that was
wild. But uh overall good. It’s been a good month. Uh still number one in college football, number one college
football combined. So, let’s just keep doing damage. Not all that much coming in early. Usually, I have first quarter
bets by now, first half bets by now. Um, some team totals. I have player props.
Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. I don’t know. Week two. They’re there. It’s slow. It’s been sides and totals so far and a lot
of baseball this morning. So, I’m thinking it’s going to get busy over the last hour. Oh, okay. So, if we don’t have any of
these smaller markets like first quarter bets and whatnot, where have you seen the most action come in on for sides?
Oh, that that’s pretty easy. Um, here are the biggest sides right now. Uh, the
latest is the Cowboys. Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys. Nothing but Cowboy money. Jets,
believe it or not. Um, that’s why that line’s now through that touchdown. The Jets are one of those dogs that are
getting a lot of love early. And who else? Who else? Who? Oh, 49ers. Even
though um that line’s dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Um uh the
Saints, forgive me, getting all those points because of KD, because of Perie. Um the public doesn’t mind. They’re
still coming in with San Francisco today. And then um Arizona. Arizona is
going to be big risk for the books later because there’s going to be a ton of straight bets, a ton of moneyline
parlays, and a ton of teasers all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And
um yeah, that’s pretty much it. I mean, again, um good spread out action, but
those are the ones attracting the most money so far. Dallas, um
49ers, and I have to say the Arizona Cardinals. biggest risk for the book so
far. The big game of the day is the Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most
action come in on for that really short one and a half point spread? Exactly. And it’s kind of flipped back
and forth staying around that one. This is a great matchup to be a book maker in
because there’s really little risk. They’re booking good two-way action. Even like with parlays and teasers,
you’re getting good two-way action. So, not much risk at all for the books. Um,
I actually made the Eagles a favorite in the game. I made my total about 45, 45
and a half. Um, so I don’t think I’m going to be able to get down. It’s right around where that number is. I know all
the excitement again is on that Super Bowl rematch. U, but so far what I can tell you is good split two-way action
from the recreational bers and nothing from the Wise guys except they got out ahead on the over. They went over 46 and
a half when that total opened. But pay attention to the um lodge odds logic screen and see if there’s takeback on
that one because again that’s a high-profile standalone more or less late afternoon game that’s going to get
a lot of over money from the recreational bers. I actually just saw my Ravens line move
to 12 and a half spread on the board this week. Yeah. And and here’s the thing. We bet
the Browns earlier in the week at plus Don’t tell me that, Yanni. Yeah. Yeah. at plus 12 and and that line
dropped. Um earlier it was like at my sharper shops I’m even seeing 13 13 and
a half but it was down to like 11 and a half Ariel because we took the points with with um the Browns but since then
they came back with the Ravens and again a lot of that has to do with late injury information that you know the the the
official injury reports don’t come out till later in the week. So, a lot of times betting synders trying to get out
ahead of that information and as it changes, they’re not afraid to get offer on a game. Um, and it looks like that’s
what’s happening. Even though early Brown short money, you’re starting to see that Baltimore sharp money come in
because the public’s not really getting involved in that game. It’s mostly being teased. They’re teasing the Ravens down
um to where, you know, they’ve got to win by one score more or less to cover that teaser. That’s where I’m seeing most of the betting action from the
public um on that game. And they’re betting it over, blindly over. I’m talking eight, nine out of every 10 bets
has been on the over in the Ravens and Browns. Bill wants to know if you’ve got a
teaser for today. Teaser right now here. I would definitely tease the New England Patriots. Um, win or lose, that’s a plus
CV sign. You’re getting them up through three, through six, through seven, and you’re seeing a total that open 45 and a
half. Get that bet down to 43 and a half. So, that’s exactly what you want. You want a a game that’s expected to
have low points. The lower the scoring, the more each point is worth. That’s what you want for your teasers. The only
problem is finding another leg to tie him into. And right now, I would have to go with Tampa on Monday night. Another
perfect setup where the total open 46 and a half. Now, we’re looking at 42 and a half. So, you can’t get a better
teaser than that. Like, that’s a perfect plus CB teaser right now where you tie in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay.
The only thing you got to hope for is that that um Houston line don’t go to three tomorrow. That’s the problem. I’m
seeing two and a halfs minus 12.0. So if it goes to three, it’s no longer a wangable teaser. It’s no longer
advantageous. You’re better off just taking the plus three. That’s the problem. I’m not seeing any other leg
you could really tease today. And they’ve done a really good job of protecting themselves from them teasers
because again, those are very advantageous. You know, you have an edge on it. As long as you’re not laying more than 125 on a six-point teaser, you
could print money. really really got me mad this year and they’re blocking them. So, I live in New York and I use all the
books the like the I use all the legal books here and every year I use my
teasers with DraftK. I place my teasers with DraftKings because they’ve been minus 120. Since DraftKings came to New
York, FanDuel was minus 136. MGM was minus 130. DraftKings have the best number at minus 120. This season, they
have now moved it to minus 136. Yeah, because here’s why. Let me explain to you exactly why. It’s the same reason
on the if you walk through the casino floor on the floor the blackjack is now six to five. It’s no longer three to
two. That little switch of one rule where you no longer pay 3 to2 you’re playing six to five. Most betterers
don’t even acknowledge that. Don’t even understand that. But that change in rule made it to where someone like me can no
longer beat that game where I’m I could beat a game a fair game of blackjack but switching it from three to two to six to
five my edge is gone in teasers by going to 130 the sixpoint teaser is no longer
beatable at 120 you had a 2% edge all you had to do is tease through three
three six and seven and you had a 2% edge your break even was around 74%. if
you’re able to do that, you’re going to hit around 76%. So, they knew you had a 2% edge if you were teasing the right
sides. Well, most weren’t teasing the right numbers. So, DraftKings didn’t care. They had so much recreational
bets, they could keep it at 120 and attract all that teaser action. Eventually, sharp bers took advantage of
that. And that’s why it’s no longer available. If you’re laying 130 on a six-point teaser, you’re now taking the
worst of it. you’re hoping to be the product of good luck because it’s a negative EV bet. There’s negative
expectations on your bet there. Like that’s the math. That’s not my opinion. That’s just how the math plays out.
Uh teaser question. Do you have to play a favorite and an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?
My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet two underdogs. It really doesn’t matter. Um just don’t tease
totals. That’s it. And don’t tease across zero. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don’t go through those
zeros. We don’t go through those zeros. Uh Marley saying, “Hi, Yanni, by the way.” Good morning. Um any Steelers Seahawk advice?
I I like the dog there. I like Seattle. Um listen, the Jets were able to score
on the Steelers. The Steelers got, you know, the that field goal in the end. They got the win, but at the end of the
day, that you’re the Jets are able to move the ball like that on you. I don’t think Seattle, whose offense didn’t look
great, is going to have all that many problems. And defensively, defensively, what I saw out of Seattle last week, all
those turnovers, fumbles, interceptions, and they still limited the offense of
the opposition. I think the Steelers are going to have trouble scoring on Seattle. Um, I like the Seahawks. I I
think that three is a gift. Um, yeah, I like Seattle there, but I’m seeing Shawn Money coming in. They’re pushing that
Steeler from three to juice. I don’t like seeing that. I would have liked to see that two and a half this morning.
So, but I like the Seattle side. I liked a question that the chat also had and I don’t know where it is, but
someone asked, “Is there a side that the public and the Sharps are disagreeing
on?” I’ll tell you, Adam.
Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to go Broncos Colts. Um because I’m seeing a lot of one-sided public money
coming in on the Broncos. And again, in the afternoon, there’s not all that many games. Um, that’s Broncos, Broncos,
Broncos. I’m seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays, and uh sharps on the the Colts side. So, that’s definitely
one where it’s sharps on one side, public on the other. Um, yeah, that that’s one for sure that sticks out.
Speaking of that game, there’s going to be a lot of overreactions in week two. We know the public loves to overreact.
Miami looked like dog crap last week. The Colts, they looked great. even though I don’t feel like people really
believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to? Whether it’s for better or for worse, who should we not
overreact to this week, Yanni? I think the Lions. Uh, you know, all the the just how how bad they look. Lost the
offensive coordinator, lost the defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal. They beat the Lions
in game one. They come back, they win on Thursday night against a Washington team, you know, that coming off a great
season. Um, so Detroit’s kind of like that forgotten team right now. I think they win by at least 10 today.
I’m all over. Yeah, they’re my survivor pick this week for a lot of spots. I I picked them in my
pickup pool. I don’t normally love to lay close to a touchdown. The Lions matchup, I don’t believe that the Bears
run D was as good as it was last week in week one. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, they aren’t as good and dynamic and
versatile as the backfield for the Lions. The Lions should be able to run clock, run all over the Bears D and
cover the spread. Yeah, I I think so. And and also like the the Saints, again, I I I don’t
understand why how you could have these players out for San Francisco and yet
all the money is on San Francisco. Again, I know we usually overreact that players are worth more to the line than
they truly are. Um, but in this spot it’s like New Orleans was all all over
all already a team betters were looking to fade. They lost in week one to Arizona. Now they’re playing a San
Francisco team and like they’re fading them again. I think that’s a dangerous spot right there. Be careful with San
Francisco on the road on especially and uh players key players out. That’s one
that I keep seeing bet and uh seeing the over being bet by the public as well. Um
again, but the Sharks bet that under they’re usually going to bet the injured U matchups under. They went under 44 and
a half all the way to under 42. That’s why you’re looking at 41 right now. And real quickly, pay attention to that
because of the look aheads. So, if you’re looking at your odds logic screen or at the very least the free um wager
talk free odds and you’ll click, make sure you look at the date of where the line opened because the look aheads are
from like before last week’s games. some of them were or during last week’s games and those limits are very small. So,
they’re able to, you know, take some sharp action, but the limits are low off those first numbers. So, look at the
date from Monday on and then see what actually was adjusted because a lot of
them look like big line movements, but off of that look ahead, there’s not much movement at all. It’s just because from
the look ahead to where they officially opened for the week, there was a big gap
because of the overreaction like you touched on. Nick from New York City wants to know, “What are the most public totals for the
books that they need today?” Oh, yeah. That’s easy. There’s It’s going to be on the overs, that’s for
sure. So, start with over Jaguars Bengals,
over Giants, Cowboys, over Bills Jets.
Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most. Like it’s not even close. Like 90 plus% of the tickets and
the bets are on the overs in all four of those games. Yeah, a lot of unders in week one. We’ve
got prime time as well. So, we’ve got one game tonight between the Falcons and the Vikings. And then we’ve got two
Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see coming in there? Yeah, you’re seeing that that um Atlanta money
continue to come in and I’m interested to see if that land that scares me a little. I like them.
It’s down to that three now. I’m surprised. I was surprised that they were at three and you could even get him
at now plus three at even money because you know they got to juice the three. I’m like is it going to go to three minus 110 2 and a half? Like there’s a
lot of love on the Atlanta side. Um and the o under there from Sharf but the
public’s betting it over. And then tomorrow on Monday night, it’s the Chargers. Everybody’s in love with the
Chargers now after week one. Um, and playing here against Las Vegas. You
know, it’s a big Monday night game for the Raiders. Be careful there. It’s above that key number now of three. But
a lot of uh parlays and uh teasers that are going to be live from Sunday are
definitely going to be on the Chargers Monday night. Interested to see if that line continues to climb as well. But I
haven’t seen sharp money on those. The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers Texans immediately when that
line opened and they’ve just continued to bet that one under. That doesn’t surprise me. Uh Survivor
picks for today. Who would you do for Survivor? Well, obviously, you know, everybody’s
going to look at Baltimore if they haven’t played him. You got a double digit favorite. But there there’s no fun
in that. Uh who would I go with real quickly? I think I would take Buffalo. I
think I would take Buffalo. I don’t Buffalo’s not losing to the Jets. I I think it’s a decent spot to take Buffalo
in. Yeah, go with Buffalo. Buffalo.
I know that props aren’t as much of your thing as mine, but did did the groups
come in on any props today? No, that’s what I keep refreshing and I
they they will. I just haven’t gotten any. I haven’t gotten any yet. Interesting. Is there a reason that they
wait because they’re trying to wait for the unders? I think so. Again, it’s it’s early still in the season. Um,
but here’s what I noticed and I know that you can say and maybe listen, there
are some times where a prop will go from like I’ll give an example. Travis Kelsey
this week was 53 and a half went down to 49 and a half. At that point, I would say like I took under 53 and a half
early this week and I said, “Well, now it’s 49 and a half. So wait to see if it gets bet over and then you could go and
take the under again. But a lot of the times when I’m on the right side of that number, it drops and doesn’t bounce
back. So I don’t know sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders.
Like you’ve got to bet those unders early. I’ve seen so many numbers drop five 10 yards throughout the span of a
week and you’ll never get that good number back. I always tell bers it’s hard enough to
beat the market. Don’t try to play psychic on when you’re going to beat it. Like when you have a bet, fire, fire. I
I if you’re right more than you’re wrong, long term, you’re going to get closing line value. Don’t worry about it
on individual bets. It’s kind of like don’t overreact on any individual result, any one bet. The same thing with
closing line value. Like if the line moves against you, that’s okay. As long as in the majority of times it’s moving
in your favor, you’re getting better number by getting out early. continue to get out early. If that’s not happening
to you, then you got to revisit the thesis. But if if you’re betting early
and more times than not, you’re getting closing line value. Keep doing what you’re doing. You’re only going to get
more and more of it because you’re doing the right thing. If if you’re not, then you got to revisit it. But otherwise,
don’t worry about the time it goes against you. Because even with me, with the groups that I work with, it happens. Look, it happened with the Browns. I
took we took 12 and now I could get 13 today. So, I could get a better number today than what we betted at. That’s
going to happen. But as long as, you know, seven out of ten times we’re getting the best of the number, I could live with that.
Yanni, is Miami a good team in Survivor this week? Oh,
Miami. What is against the Patriots? No. I I I guess if you’re you want to take a
shot and roll the dice, that’s too much of a coin flip game. I think it’s too early in the season to roll the dice like that. like in week two to go.
You always talk about regressing to the mean, right? Miami is not as bad as they looked last week.
No, no, no. But here’s the problem. Here’s the problem. That it’s the NFL
season and it’s sure, Ariel, and we have those outliers. If it was baseball, I would say 100% Miami is going to regress
or progress towards the mean. There’s enough time. But in football, sometimes there’s not enough time. We have those
outliers where on paper a team’s so much better or worse than their record, but they just never have enough time to
become that team they’re capable of being. In baseball, you have 162 games. That’s why before the season started, I
could tell you maybe one team’s going to win 60 games. The first place teams are going to win between 57 and 59, maybe 55
and 59. Why? Because we have a history of 50 plus years of them playing 162
games. And that’s what happens. No one’s going to win 70% of their games, but in football sometimes that happens. Not
enough time to progress and regress. There are those outliers. So, be cautious with that uh quick turnaround
expecting the the bias to to flip back the other way. But yeah, I don’t have to take Miami. I’m cheering them in. I
don’t have a dog in the fight. Oh, we I love it. I love to hear all these sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube page over at
Wager Talk, you can scroll back and see everything Yanni just gave out. I see all your questions in the chat. Uh Yanni
talked about pretty much all those games, so make sure to take a look there. Uh lastly, I guess you said you
had a lot of MLB coming in, so anything for the guys that want to take advantage of a market that maybe is being ignored
today? Yeah, real quickly. 952 Pittsburgh and under eight and a half. 958 under eight
and a half Colorado San Diego. 960 under eight Yankees Boston 962 under eight and
a half Baltimore Toronto. Multiple groups blasted that one. 966 under eight LA and Seattle Atlanta plus 125 KC plus
145 Miami plus 125 dog on Sundays that time of the year for
baseball whether you follow or fade good luck today join us in the steam room kicks off in about 30 minutes we’ll go
through every NFL game and you’ll get those teasers about 15 minutes before kickoff as well
Yanni the Greek he’s always over here giving us these winners thanks so much Yanni thanks Ariel
coming up now we are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This time he’s
behind the counter. He is my very good friend, best friend of Kelly in Vegas, co-host of Kelly and Murray, but more
importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies. John Murray joining
the show. Hi, John. Ariel, best friend of Kelly in Vegas. I
don’t know about my best friend is my pug, Mario. So, come on. Come on. I thought that it was going to be a
raging endorsement to be Kelly in Vegas. So, how are how are you doing today? You
ready for the Ravens? I know they let you down last week. I I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember this?
The book needed Bills big time. And then I slid into your DMs after the game and
said, “Are you at least happy for me?” And you said no. One word answer. Very disappointing.
Football’s a selfish sport. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Okay. I’m not a happy person. Football season
makes me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice of you though. You’re a really great friend, JM. You love to
just harass us when we’re down. Keep kicking us. No, no, that was that was a big game for us. I won’t be rooting against you
today, though. I will I will be rooting for I’m going to root for the Ravens today for you.
Thank you. Thank you, John, so much. I know that week two is filled with overreactions. Uh but I know that my
personal group chat loves to know the needs for the Super Bowl this week. What are they?
Uh definitely. I’d say early in the morning we’re going to need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the
morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and a half point dog right now against the Rams. I
mentioned the Bears. We’re going to need Seattle. So Pittsburgh off their win against the Jets is a popular side.
We’ll need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy. Uh looks like we’re going to
need Carolina. That doesn’t sound like fun. That sounds fun. Carolina at Arizona. Think about think
about the NFL being on this side of the counter is you gota you’re basically going to bring for the same teams every week. I think this year it’s going to be
a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans, uh maybe Tennessee. Although I actually
thought that Cam Ward looked pretty good last Sunday to be honest with you going on the road against that Denver defense.
His receivers did him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right between the hands and them dropping the ball.
So, I don’t think Cam Ward’s going to be that bad, but I do think we’re going to need the Titans a lot. We need him today.
I know my group chat’s going to love to hear that the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are going to be the teams that they have to bet
today. It’s setting Who’s in that group chat, Ariel? Who’s in that group chat? Kelly, I
uh this group chat one of 80,000. Uh Chris Thirsten. I love Chris. I love
Buckeye Joe. Okay, I know who that is. I know. Buckeye Joe. Um I think that’s it. Everyone else kind
of has been eliminated from our lives. The chat bigger, but every year it seems like we dwindle.
Everybody else is off the hook. Off the hook. Everyone else off. That’s good. That’s good.
How about totals? Any totals? Uh, let me see. I’m sure we’ll we’ll probably need the under in the uh Yeah,
we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas City game. Obviously, that’s the big game in the
afternoon. Looks like we’ll want under in your game. want the under in
Baltimore cle Baltimore Cleveland game and the under in the Buffalo game. Buffalo and the New York Jets. We got
some money on the over in that one as well. We’ll be rooting for Oh, here’s one where we actually need the over. You
ready for this? We need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is all the way down to 49ers minus three. 49ers
obviously have some key injuries on offense. I mentioned the Saints. Spencer Rattler
is their quarterback for whatever reason and we will be needing them to go over.
Total right now is 40 and a half. That actually makes a lot of sense that that game would need to go over.
Does make sense. Yes. How did the books do in week one overall, JM? So, we had a great morning. We did great
in the morning games and then we lost every afternoon game last week. It was It reminded me a lot of like every
weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games were really bad for us. We really needed uh Houston against the
Rams. That was a really bad game for us. We lost the 49er game. We lost the Packer game and then all the moneyline
parlays and teasers went to Denver and they won. So, we lost every game in the afternoon. Luckily, and I’m not saying
this I’m not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo winning did bail us out.
Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail us out. Saying that to people, I will never understand why John
Harbaugh punted on fourth and three. I I I talked about this with Kelly. I think
I think one of the biggest things that doesn’t get talked about enough in the NFL is it’s not black and white like oh
should you go for it on fourth and three. It’s who’s your quarterback who’s the other team’s quarterback. If your
quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team’s quarterback is Josh Allen. Yeah. You need to go for it on fourth
and three. You don’t cramping. Yeah. You don’t Well, you don’t punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay. You’re
just you’re just saying we’re going to lose. If the other team’s quarterback was Russell Wilson, well, then maybe you
would punt the ball back, right? So, I think I think that that doesn’t get talked about enough when people are evaluating those fourth down situations.
But, I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it was very good for us. I’m sorry.
Hey, listen. I’m going to overreact and say the Ravens are dead to me until further notice.
Week two overreactions though. Where have you seen the public overreact?
Uh, let’s see. the public. I mean, the public is very heavily on the Rams. Uh, I mentioned that game. And then there’s
been a there’s a lot of money actually on New England this week. So, New England is a very popular side.
New England did lose last week to the Raiders, but they at least looked like a competent operation,
unlike their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who Well, that’s where I think people could be overreacting, though, that I don’t
think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week. I usually expect Miami to be a decent
team until two tongue of Viola gets injured, which he will, right? And then and then after that, the wheels will
come off for that that organization, but as long as two is in there, I don’t expect them to be to be terrible. I I
don’t think so. Uh the other team that’s really the most heavily bet team of the
day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don’t have as much money on that game. It’s more tickets, but so it’s not as
big of a need as some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the
points, Dallas moneyline is in every parlay under the sun today. I just made
a Russell Wilson joke. So apparently I agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible last week against
the Commanders, the football team. I I don’t blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably should have
beat the Eagles in week one. They get the Giants today. We’ll see. Those Giants. Uh, anything in the
futures market stand out after week one? Yeah. You know, they’re starting to bet.
They’re starting to bet on Green Bay, which I get. You know, Green Bay, uh, I
I look, I like Detroit last week. I think we talked about that when I was on your show. And we had a lot of guys I
respect on Detroit. That line actually closed Green Bay minus one. And that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay handle
Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe Green Bay maybe they’re
not that good. Well, they are that good, especially on defense. Uh Green Bay, I don’t know what there’s nothing you can
say that isn’t positive about them right now. As long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy. Micah Parsons is just getting his legs
underneath him. He’s not even at full speed yet. Once he gets I think the only not nice thing I could say about Green Bay is that everybody’s
on Green Bay. Yeah, but that’s true. But they were on Thursday and you know we did not do well
on the game Thursday. Every the public bet Green Bay for sure in that game and and they won it easily. So what what can
you say? The public isn’t always wrong. The public well hey look we uh the the
public was all over Terrence Bud Crawford last night here at Allegian Stadium and he won very decisively. Very
impressive. The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely
not. John Murray coming over to see us from the Westgate. I’ve got my pup. You want
to say hi to John? You want to say hi to John? I do want to say John J wants to say hi to you. She
really is mad that we’re just sitting here and not outside playing in this beautiful weather. Uh I guess final
question. Prime time games, two games tomorrow, one game tonight. What do you see in prime time?
Well, there’s there’s a lot of action on the two games tomorrow night and and kudos to the NFL. They’re finally giving us a true double header. You know, last
year they did a lot of those where they had the two Monday night games spaced out by an hour. Thought I found that a little annoying. This week we get an
actual double header. Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp
money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams that look
great in week one, how about the Chargers and Justin Herbert? They looked awesome last Friday night. They beat Kansas City
in in Sa Paulo, Brazil. They looked really good. You know, I love Jim Harbaugh. So, keep an eye on the Chargers. They I
think the Raiders will end up being a big need for the books because there will be parlays all day today going into
the Chargers tomorrow night in the late game. We’ll probably need the Raiders in
that one. We’ve got a WNBA question. What’s your feedback when the playoffs start?
Uh, let me see. the what was I mean repeat the question I’ll attempt to answer it what was it
WNBA any advice when the playoffs start oh boy let’s see well luckily for me I
do work at a sports book so I can look to see what the smart people bet on because I don’t know much about the WNBA
I apologize for that but certainly some smart money on it looks like the Storm
oh against the Aces that’s unfortunate the Storm tonight against the Aces in game one they bet down from plus 7 to +
5 and a half. They also bet the over in that game. So, the storm and the over
game one is tonight in Las Vegas. There’s a big sporting in sporting event in Las Vegas every day, Ariel, every
single day. And wait till we get Major League Baseball in a couple of years. I can’t wait. I will be there. I want to
go and make sure that we go to a real baseball game together. JM
live from Las Vegas. Thanks for hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving us the needs of the day.
Appreciate you. And not good luck. No good luck today. Oh, that’s nice. That’s very nice.
You’re welcome. I’ll still talk to you next week anyway. I appreciate that. Thanks, John Murray. Have a good one.
And if you guys don’t know about it, the oddslogic screen, you could go to oddslogic.compropeen.
And you heard Yanni mention it. It shows you literally all the odds on the board. It tells you how lines opened, how
they’re closing, how they moved, and every sports book, etc. So, oddslogic.com/prop
queen. Someone who knows about OddsLogic very well. Our good friend Carman Biano joining the show now. He’s not in Vegas.
He’s in Canada. What’s up, Karm? Not much. I can’t John Murray used his
luck today on Liverpool. They got a 93rd minute penalty kick, so he should be happy uh even if the book takes a hit
today. But um everything’s good. Um weather’s still good up here. No snow,
Ariel, don’t worry. And our our Blue Jays are still a top of the AL East, but
we won’t go there. It’s football Sunday. It’s football Sunday. We can talk about the AL East and that craziness this
coming week. But Karm, I don’t really get to talk much NFL with you. Usually it’s hockey, it’s baseball, it’s soccer.
NFL, what do you like today? Uh we’re going to talk like some
overreactions. So I’m going to go through some games. I think the the two that really stand out to me. Uh well, I have a 5% play up at Wager Talk, so I’m
not going to discuss that game. Uh you can get it over on my page, but one of
my client plays today is Denver. You know, we talk about like overreaction. Uh you know, Indie had a very good game
against Miami, but Miami I I thought Miami just looked terrible out of the gate. Uh, you know, I feel like this
line should probably be around um, uh, Denver two, two and a half. I’m seeing
like a lot of ones and one and a halfs on the wager talk live odds. It’s never going to hit three. It’s never going to
hit that key number. But, you know, Denver is supposed to have a good season. They have a very good defense. They didn’t play uh did did they didn’t
seem to be ready to play in week one against Cam Ward uh on the road in his
first start as a rookie, but they got the win and that’s all that ultimately matters. They don’t care about covering
point spreads. They care about W’s. Um I I I think they win here and uh and I
think they they they cover this spread easily. At least they they win by three points, which is more than enough.
Houston definitely on Monday night. I absolutely love that one. That’s going to be on my card as well, too. I just
haven’t loaded it yet at two and a half. When we talk about like overreactions, I’m seeing a lot of money coming in on
Miami. Miami is like up to two and a half right now. And I I still don’t get it w with the Dolphins. Uh I think once
they get rid of their once they get rid of their coach, uh we may see a change in this team. But I just don’t get how
the Miami Dolphins year in and year out look like a team that has potential to
win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight and eight n and
eight. Uh Cleveland Baltimore, you’re not going to like this one, Ariel, but I think Cleveland stays within the number
on this one. It it is at a point now where it’s at 12 and there’s always that back door if Baltimore uh was to blow
them up. But Cleveland’s front four is a very good front four. And if they can somehow uh stop Derrick Henry, which is
it seems like impossible to do, and uh and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay inside this number. Flaco
doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Uh the team can run. So we’ll we’ll see what happens here uh between those two, but I
think they can stay within that number. Everyone is on Baltimore in Survivor and I I absolutely understand that in circa
I think there’s 6,000 plus on the Ravens as the most picked team. San Francisco I
don’t get Ariel I don’t get the I I understand the line drop. Uh I do but
this is still a very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have to give me
M. Jones versus Rattler, I’m going to take M. Jones on this team. This team
still has CMC uh Persol. Uh Joan Jennings is supposed to be a game time decision and they still have that
defense. Uh while they have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense and
sometimes defense will win you games and put your team in a position to win games. It’s at three now and bettable.
At five and a half, I don’t think it was bettable. At three, I would take San Francisco even with the injuries. Uh
what else? Casey, a little bit of overreaction, I think, on that one. I get it. Philadelphia absolutely smoked
them in the Super Bowl last season, but Casey’s Casey is still Casey. Uh, and
uh, at home, uh, this is in Casey, I believe, is it
not? Uh, at home, Casey. Mahomes as a dog. We’ve talked about it before.
Not a good situation to bet against them. Uh regular season and playoffs are
two different beasts. Uh just ask the Buffalo Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in pre uh sorry in
regular season and then uh get eliminated in the playoffs. Uh two
different ones there. And then the final one I think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of like Atlanta getting the
hook uh at the three and a half tonight uh in that late one.
Kind of going through like the entire card today. I wasn’t expecting that. No, blasting through it.
No, I love it because these are plays. John Murray just came on and he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina
are the four sides that they probably need the most today. And I am not surprised because I feel like a lot of
people I’ve heard of are on Arizona. I get it. And I really like James Connor today in his rushing yard prop because
Carolina D is terrible against the run. Um, but I have a friend who works in
Carolina and he loves the Panthers today. So, I feel like there’s just like a lot of pros verse Joe’s today.
Shouldn’t he like uh Carolina though if he if he lives No, he works in media. Like he’s
nonbiased. Nonbias. So, he’s nonbiased. Okay. Well, I I get it. Uh, I I I always put my bias aside
when I’m talking about the Buffalo Bills as well, too, because you can sort of let that your mind
and um, no, I I hardly ever bet on the Bills. It uh, normally because number
one, the the spreads are just uh, even though they’re a good cover team and they were last year, the spreads are
normally just high. You look at the Bills today and we didn’t discuss the Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves
the Jets. Uh I I know Joe Reeri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems to love
the Jets. A terrible scheduling spot for the Bills. Ravens last week. They’re on a short week next week going to M or
facing Miami. So I understand. I had no I wanted nothing to do with the Bills.
Yeah. and uh you know and you look at some of the injuries obviously Ed Oliver uh missing is a a big miss for them but
you look at some of the injuries during the week uh um with regards like the
like even their running back uh he tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday uh he wasn’t a full participant on Thursday I
think he did practice on Friday so we’ll see what we we get from him uh Keon Keon
Coleman as well too and then there’s that guy who you just don’t want to throw at which is uh Sauce Gardner. You
know, you just don’t want to go against them. Uh and the and if you look at historically over the last few years um
with uh with Josh Allen, uh he doesn’t go after Sas Gardner. He’s gone after him a couple times. He doesn’t go after
him. So, it it’s who else on the Bills steps up. Uh we’ll see what Shakir does
as well, too. But, uh I understand the live live movement. I think seven coming out uh opening at seven uh was probably
not a great thing because it was always going to bring in Jets money and it’s down to like five five and a half I
think six. You know, the interesting thing is, you know, people talk about teasers. And while I I do enjoy playing
teasers, you look at the three most popular teams with like a six and a half point teaser. And this was as of like
last night, you could have taken the Bills, Zona, and Detroit, and essentially made all three games a pick
them. And those three teams would pay you back at plus 130 on a six and a half
point teaser. If you take the same three teams on the money line, it pays 140. And this is why when you’re playing
teasers, it’s important to keep an eye on the money lines of these teams and see is it better to play a moneyline
ticket than it is to play a teaser because you’re you’re giving up some value by not taking the plus 140 on the
money line parlay as opposed to taking a teaser. Well, yeah, we were just talking about
this before, especially with all these books now charging you minus 135 for a teaser, a two-legged teaser. Just
absolutely ridiculous. And seven, by the way, Jimmy Burke 13, terrible against
the run. They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey. They have been terrible against the run for the
last year and a half. They were the worst run D in football last year. And it didn’t change after they allowed
Travis ETN to put up 143. So, come on. Let’s It’s not just week one. Like, not
just week one. Sorry, I had to get that out there. Karm, what are you promoting today?
Uh, three plays up. Uh I gave you guys one of them which is uh the Denver Broncos, but uh a 5% play uh since the
start of the 2022 NFL season which dates back three years now. Uh when releasing
four and 5% plays and all of my plays uh this week are four and 5% plays plus 130
units uh at wager talk which is number one amongst everyone at wager talk with
uh NFL. And we’re coming off a 3 and 0 day in college football yesterday as well too. Um, I got what uh Ariel, I got
the closing line value yesterday on I released it early in the week because I figured the line would drop on Arkansas.
They were plus seven uh once Old Miss um announced their their QB was out. That
line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time and I got the cover. So, I’m pretty happy about that with with
Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But the weekend warrior uh package is still up. $49 will get you
all of today’s plays and all of tomorrow’s plays in NFL football as well, too. So, um that that is it for
now. No other uh no other plays up. Uh it’s been a great weekend, five and one
yesterday, and we’re just going to try and keep it going through Sunday and Monday. And we’re going to be sweating
the games live today. Uh if you guys haven’t seen it uh la or you didn’t
watch it last week, Enzone Live, which will be on I think around 1:30 today, I
could be wrong on the time, but Enzone Live today. Uh the press um there’s a
bunch of people coming on the show. There’s about four or five and we just sweat the games. We let you know what our bets are and uh it is like five guys
at a bar just talking trash to each other and uh trying to win bets because
sometimes we’re on opposite sides. So talking trash is great. We love talking trash. Karm, you’re the
best. Thanks so much for coming on. Good luck today. You as well. Thank you. Cody Holloway, I don’t know what FanDuel
you’re at. My FanDuel charges minus 130US 135 on teasers. So, I don’t know
if it’s a state-by-st state thing, but here in New York, FanDuel is not charging minus 110. In fact, I haven’t
seen one book charge a minus 110 on a teaser, a two-leg teaser. I have not
seen a minus 110 anywhere on any of the public sports books or the um the sports
books over here. So, I don’t know where you’re getting that, but okay. Last but certainly not least, as we mentioned
before with Karm Enzone Live coming up at 1 PM Eastern time and all of your favorite Wazer Talk handicappers will be
on there sweating out their bets. Andy and Pres are going to be on there. So Pres joining the show. How did week one
go at that endzone live betting show? Well, uh I don’t know actually. I just
did all the talking. Uh everyone who How did you do? I I did okay. I went with my clients.
The show was fun. I had a blast. Uh, but it’s a long show and you know it’s still
you got uh sunshine outside. Normally I would have watched the game at my pool.
I have like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the hot tub. But alas, I got to work and
I’m okay with that. I I uh I offered my services. We love to work. Pres, what do you like
today? Uh what do I like today? Um God, I’ll tell you. I I’ll go down the card at 100
miles an hour, but I do want to say one thing firstly, Ariel, you mentioned rough spot for uh the the Bills with
Baltimore back behind us and uh Miami in front. Why is it not a rough spot for
the New York Jets? Circling a game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it, then screwing it up at the
end, having to go in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having to say no to their wives that night cuz they are very
upset. then having to go to Monday and being lectured and reamed out uh all the
way through the week, feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves. The only reason it’s not is because the
Bills are on a short week going into Thursday. Okay. The only difference
I I accept what you’re saying and that’s what kept me off of the Bills today. But
uh yeah, no interest in the Bills today. But I agree with you that the Jets are not in any better of a position except
they are the home team and they aren’t on a short week, but I have no interest in the game because if
you think I want to be that miserable to have to bet the Jets this week, the answer is no. Okay. I like Miami. You guys were
talking about it earlier. Uh John Murray said a lot of money coming in on New England, which is very interesting given
that Miami is now minus 2 and a half. Uh we’ve done a deep dive into this and uh
if you can get a an an NFL team under minus two, you’re better off taking it on the money line. That does not work at
two and a half. At minus two and a half, you’re better off in the long run taking
uh laying the points. But I like Miami here and I look at it this way. This is
their season. This is this might be Mike McDaniel’s coaching career. that last
week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong in every way that if they can’t
fix it immediately, I don’t think they continue. So, I think Miami has to give
us the best game they can all year and they are at home and it’s a short price.
And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m an emotional uh when as a handicapper, I look at the emotions of
teams and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this game feeling really high on themselves. Um look, they they
won last week miraculous fashion. They’re 1 and0. They’re in a tough division. They have a game that is
easily winnable. Um and I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I’m not a fan
of Sam Darnold at all. So there’s two bets. I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami
and both of those two are in my circa uh bets. Also, real quick, Ariel, the show
starts at 1 p.m. The live show that we’re doing starts at 100 p.m. today and
yeah, it’s a blast. Last week, we had an absolute blast.
Everyone gets to tune in at 1 pm Eastern time to watch Enzone live betting show. You could see Fred sweating out all
those bets he gave. Uh before I let you go, I know you got to get ready for the show. Survivor plays today.
Yeah. So, I took Arizona on my Survivor play. And you know, Ariel, the the
Baltimore play for all the people in the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took Baltimore is now going
to get stuck having to pick between Green Bay in Detroit,
Washington in Dallas, or they’re going to have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because
Baltimore is out for Christmas or Thanksgiving. Whichever one of those it’s Thanksgiving.
Yeah. So, whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly because
would you take Green Bay going into Detroit? Would you take Detroit hosting Green Bay? Would you take Washington
going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington? No chance you’re taking Cincinnati in Baltimore. So,
I don’t get it. I try to take a longterm approach with this. Uh, so we’ll see. I guess there are people that take the
long-term approach. Then there are the people that take the I just want to survive to that point approach.
That’s probably most of the public the way that they play it. Uh I know that Survivor I know like Lions is probably
up there too for some people, but Arizona is a pretty I like the play even though I know the books need the Panthers. So good luck to you.
Yeah. And one of the guys in the chat room uh way back said, “Who’s a better better Giani or the press?” Uh, Giani
uh, lives, sleeps, eats, breathes. Giani
literally lives betting like nobody I’ve ever met before in my life. It It’s 18
hours a day. All he does is study bets. I do not. I am a businessman and I make
bets and I’m good at it. But Giani, Giani hands down. Although in NHL,
I’m way better than Giani. So that in that one sport, but Giani,
everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it’s baseball for me. I could be Kelly in baseball. And everything else, I’ll
give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds, and sleeps this stuff. Press, so do you, though. So do you. We love to have you
on here on Last Call. Have fun watching those games live with all the audience at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Everyone, make
sure to tune in. Uh good luck today. Thanks guys. Thanks for having me. Thanks for doing the cereal.
Of course. Pres. Okay. So for me, a few props that I gave out earlier this week
throughout the show. Jir Gibbs over rushing yards. James Connor over rushing yards. Travis Kelce under receiving
yards. I think Joe Flacco throws the football a lot in his first game back at Mnt Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Um
there’s obviously analytics and analysis behind all this. Um, so if you want to check it out, you can go to the prop
queen.com. Sign up and subscribe to the newsletter or you can watch my shows at the prop queen pod. Um, I’ve given out
all that info all over the show. Best bet right now, as of today, I took James Connor over uh
I think it was 63 and a half. I think it’s up to 68 and a half now. Um, but I took over 63 and a half rushing yards
for Jim Connor earlier this week. He is the Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers who I’ve mentioned
is the worst rund in football dating back to last year. Travis ETN just ran for 143 last week. James Connor last
year underratedly faced four different teams um that were bottom 10 against the run. And James Connor rushed for at
least 100 yards in all four of those games. They’re a six and a half point favorite. So if there is a chance they’re up, they’re going to run the
ball anyway. Take advantage, run down the Panthers D. Um, the only problem that we’d have with this is if it is a
close game. John Murray said that the Panthers are in need for their book at the Super Bowl. So maybe this game’s
closer, but James Connor should be able to run the football well against the Panthers. Um, but if you don’t like
that, then Jier Gibbs would be my second favorite over 67 and a half rushing yards. He’s also getting a Bears defense
that I don’t trust yet against the run either. They looked good last week against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones,
but we know that the Lions backfield is way more versatile and way faster than those two running backs. The Bears
allowed the second most rushing yards per game to running backs last year. So, I would take advantage of those two
running back props. Um, you can’t get the Travis Kelce number anymore at 53 and a half. It’s now 49 a half. Um, and
then I mentioned I think Joe Black has to throw the football a lot today at Mnt Bank Stadium. That is a very high pass
attempt total. 37 and 1/2 38 and 1/2. So those are like my top four props for
today. Um I probably could give you a fifth. I just have to go look at the
newsletter again to remember exactly what I gave out. Um I’ve also been
having some technical difficulties on my end on my computer today. Um
let’s see a fifth prop. And we’ve got Premier Lacrosse Championships by the way coming up in a half hour. So, if you
want a PLL play, Jared Burnernhard over two and a half points. He had four
points in the game-winning goal in overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlas are strong against the
attack, whereas Burnernhard runs out of the box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. Um, he had 37 touches and
nine shots, which was a season high in their last matchup. So, Gerard Burnernhard over two and a half points
in Premier lacrosse. Um, a few other plays in the NFL today. Cole KT under 19
and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch for 31 yards last week. We had the over on his longest reception that
cashed. But the Bears, they drafted Coloulson Loveland and he had two catches on two targets for 12 yards last
week. Kind of getting his feet wet. But now you’re getting a Lions D that allowed the third least receptions and
third least receiving yards per game to tight ends. Only 37% of tight ends went over their receiving yard prop last year
against Detroit. Um, I think Cole Kat takes a step back this week. So, I would
say under on his receiving yards. Darnell Mooney is a sleeperish play slash a little risky solely because he
missed week one with the shoulder injury. He should be playing today. Mooney had the most 20 plus yard catches
for the Falcons last year. He had 21. The next best was Drake London with 12. So, Darnell Mooney is your deep threat
in Atlanta. The Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers and second most receiving yards per game
to them. Do I trust the amount of touches? Do I trust the amount of targets that Darnold Mooney will get in
his first game of the year? No. But I do trust that there’s going to be a deep ball thrown to him. And against the
secondary, which is more vulnerable than their pass rush in Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over 19 and a half yards for his
longest reception is another play that I would take a close look at today. That’s it for us here on Last Call on Wager
Talk. I’m the prop queen, Ariel Epstein. Thanks so much for tuning in. We’ll see you guys next week. Good luck to those
bets.
Urban City Podcast Group
