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Major Takeaways:
Significant line movement has occurred, with the Packers shifting from -4.5 openers to -3 at most books, largely due to key Green Bay offensive linemen being questionable.
Strong week-two betting trends heavily favor the Washington Commanders to cover the spread, especially when facing a team that won big in its opener.
Player prop bets on Commanders defenders to record sacks are popular, with analysts targeting Donte Payne and others to exploit potential protection issues for Jordan Love
NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Trends, and Player Props
This is VSIN, the sports betting network.
Always follow the money. Follow the money. That’s what I always say. You always follow the money. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss
and Paulie Howard on VSIN. Here we go. It is follow the money on
VON, the sports betting network. Mitch Moss along with Paulie Howard. We are live in downtown Las Vegas from the
Circa Resort and Casino here on a busy Thursday. Uh fun program, informative
program, uh opinionated program coming up over the next three hours. Like I said, Paul Chian in 30 minutes, two full
segments with him on fantasy for week two and player props that he likes tonight and this weekend. Drew Butler,
former kicker at Georgia. Why is this number moved so much? Tennessee’s way. We’ll ask him about that. Steve Wis, the
Meatman, best bets in soccer. John Kim tonight, who covers the Commanders with a Thursday night football preview coming
up a little bit later on, Paulie. And on the screen right now, I see that
DraftKings is at three and a half in the game tonight. Minus 118 if you want to take it with the Commanders. Minus 102
on the Packers. Pretty much every other spot has Green Bay minus three. now in
the game with various juice on that as well. Did you know that Circa opened up four and a half right away on Sunday
night? Oh wow. Yeah. VO’s very own Dogger pass man Dave Tulie grabbed the four and a half and then he
was on the network that night with uh Scott Seidenberg and he said I still absolutely would recommend plus the
four. So that’s the uh direction in which this bad boy has been moving. Now I I agree with it. I grabbed three and a
half earlier today minus 115 on the commanders. All right, good. I like the Packers. I know they’re coming off a perfect game.
Washington didn’t play well, but I think Green Bay can move the ball on this Washington defense. It’s a whole
different ballgame going against the Giants and I want to see what Parsons can do as well that he wasn’t out there
a lot, but had a big big impact on the game when he was out there against Detroit and we’ll see what happens today
with that defense and and uh carried away all aboard on the Packer bandwagon
from 23 to1 to 8 to1 to win the uh to win it all and the NFC odds as
well. crazy. What’s going on with the futures? So, we’re on opposite sides of this one for tonight. I’ll give you a rundown of some week 2 trends in recent years. If
it means anything to you coming up in a few minutes, but here’s here’s one reason why I like the Commanders, but we’ll find out a little bit more uh
probably 90 minutes or so before game time tonight, like who is actually going to be active and inactive. And I’ll say
this on the Packers side, Bo Melton, cornerback, he is out. Brettton Cox,
Dlineman, he is out. But my biggest question mark are the following two players for Green Bay. Guard Aaron Banks
and then offensive lineman Zack Tom. They’re both questionable. If they can’t go in this game tonight, um I’ll give
you an example here. Will Anderson for Houston in the offseason was asked about the most difficult offensive lineman
that he’s faced in his career so far. His answer, Zack Tom from Green Bay. So,
he’s very good. And if they’re without both guys, I think uh Love’s going to feel a little bit of the pressure
tonight by this front for the Commanders. And also, I I did not I was unaware of this because we have not been allowed to bet at DraftKings because
they own the company for so long. So, I never really looked at this until today. You can bet individual players. I know
that you could bet individual players to get a sack at some spots, but they offer over a quarter sack. So, if a guy
contributes to a sack and he gets a half a sack, that’s going to be a winner. And
like for example, Payne tonight, Don Payne, over a quarter sack, plus 302.
Payne had two sacks last week. Um, Armstrong is 2 to1 over a quarter sack.
He had six pressures on Russell Wilson, one sack and five hurries, and two other players to throw at you. Uh, Kinlaw had
three pressures and two quarterback hits, plus one hurry. Over a quarter sack tonight is plus 394.
And then like, does Von Miller play? We’ll find out again a little bit later on. He’s plus 196.
And if it’s going to be, we’re talking no Zack, Tom, no Aaron Banks. I would like to attack it by betting all those guys over a quarter sack tonight.
Well, they had time to game plan though all week, too. And Laflur is an excellent coach that he is. And uh see if they’ll have something ready to get it out fast. I know they
want to take shots down the field, but ground and pound and a lot of Jacobs, too. So, they have a lot of talented players and a lot of weapons. I’m high
on this Golden kid, but also they were just uh didn’t get to showcase all their stars last week because they were
sitting on the big lead and the defense was all over. Oh, DraftKin just went to 32 now, man. Did they move to three?
Um and uh you know, it was just run the ball with Jacobs and the defense was all over Goffin and Baris Detroit. So, I
give them the edge because of the short turnaround and being at home and the fact that do with this what you want. Lafleur has been unbelievable. He’s he’s
what 12-0 uh ATS week two and week three. Yeah. So that that’s also strong as
well. He’s very good. Um let me give you some other numbers here with like recent trends. Steve Mackin von.com must read
every single week in the first half of the season. Home teams are 25 and 22
straight up on Thursday Night Football. But only 15 30 and2 ATS 33% in the last
47 games going back to 2018. And when you uh dig even deeper, since
2016, home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44 and 27 straight up, 422 26 and 3
at 62%. And Steve provides his analysis on that as well. And it makes a lot of
sense like right away there’s no like real travel spot. I know it’s a Thursday night here, week two for Washington, but
later on in the year really catches up with the road teams early on in the season has not been a big deal. teams
playing a second straight home game in week two and are favored are 14 and 10
straight up but five and 19 ATS over the last three years. That would be Green Bay tonight. You’re down 16 units with
that. And I’ll give you some other numbers from VO host Steve Mackin. You can follow or check that Scott
Seidenberg. You can follow him on X at Scotsson on air. Since the start of the 2021 season,
that’s when we expanded to 17 games and the preseason went down to three weeks. Dogs in week two are 3721-4
against the spread, covering on average by 1.7 points per game. And teams that won in week one and then are favored in
week two are 11 and 21 with three uh pushes ATS since then. That would be
Green Bay. And when those uh 1 and0 favorites are home in week two, only 515 and one ATS. So if you buy into the week
one, week two trend stuff, it’s all anti- Green Bay here in this spot.
Another one, if a team won their week one game by 10 plus points in week two,
they’re 13 and 14 at uh and only 5-1 ATS. Uh failing to cover
by 1.9 points per game when listed as a favorite in week two. So, strong stuff there on Washington’s side in this game
tonight. Packers are the better team. I’m confident in them tonight. How about how the total’s too high? Why is this 49?
Well, h why is that total so high? Washington’s improved defense and what we saw last week. So, I expect both
teams to run the ball and Green Bay was so dominant last week defensively. I’m shocked at this total. And then it went
up. Keeps going up. Yeah. Yeah. I went under 48 and now now we’re up to 49 in some spots and 48 and a
half. Is that because the Washington offense is so like highly thought of and so it’s power rated to the moon?
They didn’t I know, but that was last year. They didn’t play well. Well, they had 400 yards. Last Well, I mean, you had to hang on to
beat the Giants from if the Giants could cash in at the goal line and not throw the ball. Uh I think that that’s one
thing that the good Giants defense though, too. But to me, it’s all about Parsons and and the impact he can have on this game. And there was a good
article about this is the great marriage which is already a good defense and now with Howley how dangerous this could be and could it be the best defense in the
league on the field against Detroit. The Packers conceded minus two rushing yards
and seven plays. 48 yards on 15 plays without Parsons. Everywhere he went, the
Lions made sure they had two or three hats on him. Dominant on his own created easier matchups for everyone around him.
He had his first sack. Goff got rid of the ball more than half a second quicker when Parsons was on the field. 2.8
seconds compared to when he was off 3.36 despite Parsons being confined largely
to third downs. On the snap, the Packer sacked Golf three times and coughed it up 2.4 yards a play. The longest game
going for uh 16 yards. Betting on Parsons to transform Halfley’s defense was like getting in on
water before the first day. The guy writes in this article, incredible job. And that’s, you know, it’s been nothing
but hype for the last uh seven days, but probably longer than that once they acquired him. But I think it’s uh it’s
rightfully they’re rightfully the favorite to win the division and they just destroyed Detroit. The one thing Detroit did do was they hit Laaporta.
So uh the guru making the case for Z over sure catches and receptions and he scored a touchdown last week. So
there’s also this uh a couple of props here with Jane Daniels. His rushing prop earlier today was as low as 43 and a
half. I think it’s going up at some books. Surprise, surprise. Uh people betting him to go over, but his longest
rush is also listed at 15 and a half yards. He went over that number 10 times last year and he had 68 yards last week.
He cleared 43 and a half rushing yards 12 times last year, including the playoffs.
I think there’s an angle here where the Packers try to bring a lot of pressure on him. Like Parson’s around the edge,
that’s what he thrives at. And if this guy is going to be as elusive as, you
know, he was in year one, and I think that’s going to continue because he’s so talented. I think that’s going to create some open running lanes here for him
tonight. And I think like over 15 and a half with the longest rush could be there
that long, right? Because like it’s going to that’s a big number. If they come around like that and that’s going to create some running
lanes for him and he’ll take off and if they don’t have a spy on him at that point, I think he might be able to clear that. But also like that could I think
that’s can that overall is going to keep Washington moving the sticks for a lot of this game. That’s why I’m on love over cuz Washington’s going to play man and just
take off and run. I can’t believe his numbers that low. I bet it it came down. I bet it over this morning. You can go over rushing yards and over
uh over longest rush and the guru’s on that as well. You can ladder him too. I
think Love will take he took off three times against Detroit. But I think he’ll there’ll be plenty of opportunities for
Love to uh take off and go and leave will get four and a half yards on the longest rush. Yeah, I I played over four and a half. I
think Circa was at four and a half minus 120 today for uh overall rushing yards by Jordan Love. Did you find Debo to have a rush?
Yes, I did. Uh over a half a rush was minus 240 and I think they moved it to over one
and a half plus 180 at bet 365. But his yards came back down by the way.
So it got as high as 7 and a half yesterday. Debo is now back down to four and a half now, but his his props been
moving back and forth like a ping-pong match the last 12 hours. VO Pro delivers real-time DraftKings and
Circa betting splits. See where the public and sharps are putting their money. The morning email from Bill 80 recapping all the best bets from every
host, every guest. 247 video, the pro tools, the prop analyzer, the Mackin and trends, everything you need to stay
ahead of the season. Burke on college $9.99. Save 50% with an annual subscription. von.com/subscribe
today. Sign up now. $9.99. bson.com/subscribe. Matt Laflur also 23 and9 ATS in prime
time. Win some lose some coming up next. And we’ll update the live Major League Baseball betting board here on Follow
the Money. It’s VSIN the Sports Betting Network.
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betting, Von’s got your weekend game plan. Fridays at 7 p.m. it’s the Circa Friday Football Invitational. Saturday
morning, Von’s College Football Tailgate Show at 9:00 a.m. breaking down matchups, props, and big-time bets.
Later that night, join the football contest show as the sharpest betting minds give you their picks for Sunday’s
game. And Sunday at 9:00 a.m., lock in with Mitch and Paulie on Von’s Pro Football Tailgate Show, your final stop
before kickoff. Check out the full lineup at von.com and join us on the Sports Betting Network.
On the next edition of Prop Points, we’ll start off the show reacting to all the action from Thursday Night Football.
Decent betting analyst Ben Stevens will join the program to give out his best bets for week three of college football.
Can number 15 Tennessee defeat number six Georgia? We’ll see what Ben has to say. We’ll close out the show with some
of my favorite player props and touchdown props for Sunday’s NFL action. I’m John Hansen. Tune in to Prop Points
at 100 p.m. Eastern, only on VSON, the sports betting network. So Paulie, have you had a chance to read
the VSON daily yet? Yeah, came in at 3:00 a.m. What’s Bill doing up that late? Well, rumor has it it starts off with a
12-hour meditation session. Then he just pours himself over film and
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Win some, lose some is sponsored by the Shark Plays. Were you a winner last night? Wow. Winning.
Or was it a rough one? Well, they can’t all be winners, can they? Loser. You’re a loser. Paulie Howard recaps the night in sports
betting in win some, lose some. Big one cash. Most runs available every night.
Caesars and Will and DraftKings. Tigers 40 to1. Phillies 20 to1. Dead heat.
Highest scoring game. Phillies Mets 12 to1. The home team is 11-1 this year.
Head-to-head in that Phillies matchup. Cubs plus 145, Reds plus 130. Padres’s
blow it again. What a disappointing organization. They might miss the playoffs, honestly.
Well, see if they sweep the Rockies. I’m not uh holding my breath on that one. Subscribe, be part of the team, von.com,
our radio and podcast friends. You always want to see these tweets and videos at paulyv on Instagram. Send them
in. We’ll put you on. Thanks to everyone who keeps sending them in on a regular basis. Look at this guy coming down on
the the hill going uh on the snow. He’s going to beat him. He’s on the raft on
the little ride and the dog’s going to beat him all the way down the hill in the snow trying to catch him as he pulls him down. And he stayed ahead of him the
whole way. God, that guy can scoot. He stays ahead of the the human the whole time as he’s on the tube coming down on
the hill on the snow. That’s incredible. What kind of dog is that?
Looks like Digs Aussy’s dog. It’s almost like a Jack Russell, but I know it’s not. But look at that. Begging him to chase him
and play catch, if you will, and I’ll come down the hill and I’ll beat you. This dog could win like contest with the
100 meter dash. I mean, yes. Do you ever watch it on ESPN where they dive in the water to get the the toy? But I mean, how far
they can get in the air? That’s right. That’s great. Excellent. How about the little hole in the gate here?
They’re coming in. 19.
19. Oh, this is that Oh, what is this? Oh, okay. They made like a 50ft hot dog, I
believe. Was that Fenway? It might be longer than that, actually. Who did this? Oh my god.
Well, my guess is this is AAA. Oh, some of some Okay. as like a promotion. But it also looks like a really nice stadium. So I I can’t
remember. I saw this online. I can’t remember exactly where. No, that’s bigger than TripleA for sure. Was that chestnut involved? He was just
doing some other event where he ate 15 lbs of something. Oh, he could probably eat like a 50ft hot dog.
Bent down the longest 28 seconds. Okay. The longest hot dog ever. Okay, now 19. Look at Yeah. Peekaboo. Coming
in the hole in the gate. Dogs peeking their head out. What’s going on? What are you What are you up to? Taking the
back. That’s so good. It’s like when the like when the the person’s got the condo but
it’s it’s way up and then she cut a hole and so the dog could see what’s going on downstairs or if you’re lower they could
play fetch with the dog. Yeah. And he can throw the tennis ball up there and he’ll put it through the hole as well. That’s great. As always beats
whiskey and a revolver. Under eight and a half in the Dodger game. 4 nothing bottom of the eighth. Mooki hits a grand
slam and then Hernandez goes deep. Nine nothing. Cardinals plus a run and a half. Oh, 2-2 in the 13th. Guy comes in
for the Mariners. I think it’s a pinch runner. Then he had a two-run walk-off bomb to cover the run line. And they
sweep St. Louis in a game they had to have. I saw the highlight after the game was over with um late last night. And I’m
like, yeah, uh there are some people who are going to wake up tomorrow morning who thought that bet was dead if they had the Mariners on the run line. And
well, and then in the inning, right? And then the inning before Seattle had the bases loaded with nobody out, didn’t
score. Like what’s the probability of that happening? I was watching I was watching in play. What do you think it was
for them to like score a runner to win the game? Well, yeah, right. Cuz you that’s the bottom of the 12.
They they were minus 2,000. Yeah. In that range, right? You could get like 12 12 to one takeback.
Yeah. So it’s like it’s they got out of it. There was a strike out, I think, and then a double play. Come on. And that’s like less than 5%. Yep.
Then the Padres’s one- nothing in the eighth. They blow it with that great bullpen. All you got to do is get a lead like in the sixth.
You’re going to be good to go. Why did he make a pitching change? He already had a lefty in the game. Yeah, he went lefty lefty and they couldn’t
get Paveta any help last night. No, I know Abbit’s good. Yeah. Yeah. For the line moves, sharp plays already
there. Jeff and the crew do a great job. You’re not going to smarter out muscle billion dollar books. So full-time
sharps on your own with the sharp plays. You don’t have to. Powered by advanced AI and plugged in trusted insider
sources. They deliver the edge serious beters use everyday free reports, alerts, market moving insights. Send
straight to your inbox or X feed. Add it since 2011. Documentary results, public logs, transparent receipts.
Sharpplays.com. Trusted by pros, watch by the books. Visit sharpplays.com. Stay out of the line. Incredible information.
He’s always on sharpplays.com. I’ll update a couple of games going on as we speak. Uh they’re both shutouts
right now. By the way, shout outs keep coming in every single day. But the White Socks are doing it again.
And they open up as dogs today again against Tampa Bay. And they’re up five nothing right now in
the seventh. This team, are they going to run away and hide with most wins in September? No. This is crazy talk. Run away and hide. Yeah, it’s a it’s
it’s a great sweat though. I would say runaway and hide. Another one is uh Toronto right now with a four nothing lead over Houston. Top of
the fifth. That’s Gossman going today. Oo, Seattle could be tied for first place. Juicy. And Baltimore swept Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh now 22 and 50 on the road. Every loss is by a run.
Right. And I I saw you that Mariners game though tonight. That’s going to be Miller going against Sorriano. Soraniano
was on the schedule for yesterday but pushed back to today. I actually the market is uh on Seattle in this game.
Opened up about a buck 45. It’s up like 10 cents from that right now. I I do not trust Miller enough to like
back him. And Soran was a guy we talked about yesterday. It’s like every other start with very difficult guy to figure out, but he was awful in his last start.
I’m on the Phillies again. Again, the home team’s 11-1 between the Mets and Phillies.
They’ve had no problems in the first three games of this four game set. Hey Paulie, good read by you on this series.
Yeah, every day you’ve been all over it both days. Magic number down to seven. Costano’s hitting 400 against Peterson career and
they can blow him out again. and I don’t trust Peterson and the Mets aren’t hitting other than Sodto. Uh Alonzo has
bad numbers against Lazardo. So I think the Phillies get him again. How about a 20cent move here on the game
the other way? They open up a buck 44. Uh is this accurate right now? Circus
at$122. That’s what they are on the screen. There was some movement in some of the other games as well. Um Detroit trying
to sweep the Yankees. Oh boy, this has been a bloodbath of a series. It’d be the third time they’ve ever done it in a modern era to sweep
the Yankees in New Yorkers. Yes. It’d be the second time in the modern
era if they win by double digits again. Can they win every game by 10 plus runs?
They’ve outscored them 23 to three in the first two games. Yeah. And the Yankees again tonight laying a$160 in that range. Maybe even a little
bit higher. the Washington Senators in 1951 and the Red Sox in 2021 were able to do it.
I would not be laying this big of a number with the Yankees at all. Yeah. Can’t do it. I do like Cleveland, too. I
think uh Williams, who’s been strong, 5-1 with a 174 since the break. Fourth best erra since
the break. Mhm. To take out the Royals tonight. And uh other than that, it’s a small card. I do
find that like Mike Palm the Maestro brought up that WNBA game interesting with uh the Lyns and the Golden State.
If Golden State wins, they’re the six. If they lose, they’re the eight and they
face the Lyns. The links are lane seven. Why would you play Callier? Why would you play anybody? The playoffs start
Sunday. Golden State money line is plus 250 in some spots, right?
I think they’re going to go out and try to win this game. I don’t want to play the links. Well, and why would the Lynx want to play them?
That too. You they can pick their opponent like like Mike Palm said. Sure, they play Seattle if uh if they lose to
Golden State. That that’s like the most logical approach here by the team. But then then you got to figure like are
WNBA teams to the point of where they actually buy into this kind of stuff
like where NBA teams might do this and NFL teams might kind of like, hey, we’re not going to send our best
guys out there. All of a sudden, four more guys are on the IR this game. Well, you’re playing that’s a management
uh decision, too. Right. And that’s what I’m saying. Like in the front office, do they actually have that in them mentally to
do it? Yeah. Let me give you some news on this Packers game. We talked about this in the first segment. More on it coming up with Paul Charian in about 5 minutes. Uh
tweet here from Packers Notes. The Packers placed defensive end Brentton Cox on IR, elevated quarterback Micah
Robinson, and offensive lineman Brent Banks from the practice squad. the
elevations would suggest that uh Nate Hobbs and Aaron Banks on the offensive
line along with Zack Tom probably won’t be playing tonight. I think that’s the uh the takeaway from that as well. M
maybe one of the offensive linemen yet because they only elevated one guy, Brandt Banks from the practice squad,
but it’s not looking good for those two guys on the team. And it looks like um there’s still one three and a half out
there nationally speaking, but you got to there’s severe juice on it and every other book basically is th now three on
the game. All right. Well, they got to prove it to me. A lot of talk about how they’ve addressed and fixed the defense and want to do a better job. Giants don’t count.
So, we going against the big boys tonight. Let’s see how that defense looks and if the Packers and Love can exploit it and have some success and and
slow down Daniels. I I like your guy, Bill, though, too. His rushing yards are too low. What was the last number that
you saw? Because I think that’s been on the uptick as well. I think I saw as low as 37 and a half. But yeah,
but in the low 40s as well. As always, shop around. Make sure you have several different outs here when you want to bet
this stuff. He’s uh plus money to get 40 at DraftKings. Okay. Interesting. All right.
Well, we have a Washington commander guest on coming up in about 90 minutes. Specifically going to ask him if Debo
Samuel is going to get a carry in this game tonight. I think they try to take away Jacobs and slow him down and that
can open it up for uh passing attack for love. Okay, very good. U fantasy football hall
of famer Paul Charian joins the program coming up next. Lot to get into over the next two
segments. What’s the appropriate approach with the 49ers as Brock Perie is out against the
Saints? We’ll ask him that coming up on Follow the Money. It’s Von the Sports Betty Network.
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Welcome in. Thanks for watching today on YouTube TV, listening on SiriusXM channel 158, iHeart Radio, TuneIn Radio,
or any of the uh great affiliates that we have across the country. We are trying to connect right now with fantasy
football hall of famer Paul Chian. Hopefully that happens here pretty soon. Until then, Paulie, of course it is.
Can you believe this? The 24th anniversary 911. No idea.
Next, next year will be a quarter century. Yeah. And I can’t I don’t I don’t even know what to say because it I it was
super emotional today. I followed the TSA Instagram account. It’s actually quite funny with some of the stuff that
people try to get by with. Yeah. The TSA Instagram account
put a video up today. Never forget. I It’s the first time I
ever saw some of those videos and heard some of the audio and I was just broken today
when I watched it. I tried sharing some of it on my Instagram. account Mitch Moss, but if you follow, if you don’t follow TSA, I’m telling you, if you’re
going to watch like one video today uh about 9/11, you have to look at this thing, man. It just crippled me earlier.
We got to know Jim Fossil. Yeah. The Giants head coach. And when the Giants went to the Super Bowl and lost
to the Ravens, great dude. The Yes. The following year, they opened up on the road against Denver. And then
they were they lost and then they were coming back and they got in like I think it was and they were next to Flight 93
if the memory serves when they got in and then hours later uh what happened
but you had the Jim Fossil Foundation and he was a great guy and he said I told our players after 9/11 then you had
took the week off they were playing the Chiefs and he said you wear that NYPD or fire department
baseball cap and I’m telling telling you, we’re honoring these people. I don’t want to see it flipped around. I
don’t want to see the bill up or sideways or something else. I want it front and center with that hat or don’t put it on. We won the game, went into
the locker room was like old times. Put our arms together, got on our knees, everyone got in the picture, cap was
straightforward, and we honored them. He told the story of Giuliani reaching out saying, “Hey, can you come down to
ground zero?” He goes, “I’m just a football coach.” He goes, “Uh, it would mean a lot.” He said, “Everything in my mind is so
visible of what what happened. I can replay it over and over and over again.” And the whole season after that happened
was something where we had to refocus ourselves. And I told the players, “You park your car, you get on the bus, you go to New York, Manhattan, and you
always see some cars there.” When I left at night, they were mostly all gone. For about 10 days, there were a whole bunch of cars left there. And I can only
picture the fact that those people parked their cars, got on the bus, and went over there, and they perished. tough on your stomach every morning when
you went to work every day and saw all those cars sitting there.
And I was hard to get through an interview every time he would tell that story. And uh you got to know him.
I traveled with him quite a bit cuz I called the UFFL games out here for the Las Vegas Locos. Yeah. And I did the coaches show and
this guy was so smart, great sense of humor. My favorite fossil other than
the, you know, the guarantee which was good. Putting all my chips in the middle. we are making the playoffs. And
they got hot and they did. But the other one was when he told the story, his phone’s ringing. So goes, “Why so many people calling me? What’s going on?” So
Jeremy Shocki’s on the Howard Stern show. What’s going on? And Shocki says, “My my my goal in life is to have a a
threesome with a mom and and two or two daughters.” And he goes, “You idiot. That’s a forsome.” And then he he goes,
“From now on, you have to clear through your agent every interview you ever do
and don’t ever go on there again.” And just screaming at Chocky and some of the stories that he had.
How about his first reaction, you idiot? That’s not three, that’s four. What a great story.
Here’s here’s Fossil though on the story of 911 and sharing some of his thoughts.
Paul Tagu made the right decision. He made the right decision. I mean, we were we were not ready. I mean, there was all
kinds of things that were so memorable to us. It’s like Giant Stadium was a was
a was a ground where people would drive their car into Giant Stadium, park it in the morning, and get on a bus into the
New York City. Okay? There might be 200 cars parked there. All right? And I
remember seeing it. And that night when I left, that parking lot was full. And it’s never that way. And I went, “Oh my
god.” I mean, how many people perished that parked a car here? When I go back in the next morning about six o’clock in
the morning, I’d say there was 150 cars still there. And I thought they just it made me sick
to think those people parked their cars and went into work uh in the city and
they probably perished. And uh Rich, you know, I got so many letters from people that said, you know, thanks for going to
the Super Bowl because now you’re on Monday Night Football and the game was so late, it finished after midnight that
I decided to go in late. I wasn’t going to get there early. I was going to take a half a day. And if if you guys weren’t
on Monday Night Football, I’d have probably been one of those towers. And u you know, people saying, “Thanks for
that.” I go, “Geez, really? It’s incredible. That that just hits you in the stomach
every time you hear it. Oh man. And that was several years ago on the Rich Eisen show cuz the game went so late. I I took a
half day. Oh, if they don’t go to the Super Bowl. Mercy. Yeah. So, I I will tell you this too.
Not only was that guy like a great sound bite, you know, that 9/11 story aside,
but like traveling with him too when I I called those games and he would like, you know, sit next to us on the flight
and then he would tell like the broadcasting crew to meet with him the
day before the game or the morning of the game. And that’s whenever you hear about like uh broadcasters telling you
like, “Hey, this is what I got.” Like they’re going to get some pretty good insight on the game. and if they’re going to share it, that could be
actually some pretty good information to follow along with like through throughout the contest. I noticed right
away the first time that that ever happened. It it the game unfolded to a tea how he
told my broadcast partner and me what what they were going to do and it was just like it was like a painting
watching it out there on the football field. He he that’s how good of a coach the guy was. And even at that level that
was called the United Football League. eventually players in that league went on to have like big impacts in the NFL.
You could watch like how effective the offense was like from the booth just to
see like he he gets it like he was it doesn’t matter where that guy was going to coach, he was going to be a good offensive coach. So anyway, that was uh
Jim Fossil and that’s that’s a little rough.
We lost him in 2021. Has it been that long now? Yeah,
that’s tough. Great guy. Yeah. Yeah.
So, um the other as we move along here on a sports betting network, the other New
York team this week is taking money as the Jets are taking on the Bills. That game’s
down to five and a half here at Circa. And Ed Oliver was an absolute menace on
the defensive line for Buffalo against Baltimore on Sunday night. He was spotted with a walking boot
earlier today. So imagine, go back to week one, what the Bills defense looked
like. I know it’s the Ravens offense, but then how good again what if the
Steelers defense is good. Well, yeah, cuz it was also they gashed them on the ground though. Sure. You know what the Jets are going to do?
You know, run the ball on them and how good they looked against the Steelers. Yeah, Jet the Steelers couldn’t stop
their ground attack. Yeah. So, I took um I think this number is going to keep coming down. I took six and a half with the Jets earlier today
and and I know that the game opened up on seven, but that didn’t last very long at all. And I don’t want to overreact
here to what we saw in week one, but you know, the Lions offensive coaching staff with their new OC. They have their
fingerprints now on this Jets team as they came over with Aaron Glenn, the new
head coach here for the Jets. And uh you got to like what Justin Fields looked like in that first game and picturing
him against this Bills defense that got absolutely gashed by Baltimore for I
don’t know 42 minutes on Sunday night before the the Ravens went into prevent mode on offense or try not to lose the
game mode and if they if they’re not going to have that Oliver man that’s a um
that’s a big loss potentially for him and so the total by the way keeps going up as well. Remember Paul Boie was on
the show on Monday, professional sports better who bet over 44 and a2 and over 45. That’s up to 46 and a half and trending
towards 47. What would you do if you’re running the 49ers now? Now Py could be out two to five,
right? M. Jones and Mike White. Oh boy. And
this is just this escalated quickly. Get out. Party out. This is they can’t
win. You got to call somebody because now it’s serious. What if it were what if Kyle Shanahan gets it to work with
Matt Jones cuz remember Michael Lombardi was saying that entire draft that that’s who they traded up for was M. Jones. Yeah, Shanahan wanted him. Got talked
out of it. That’s the guy he wanted. But I will my comeback would be okay.
Congratulations. You beat the Saints. Probably the worst team in the league. Then you have Arizona up next. I I
Let me give you this. I gota I gotta call somebody. The guy could miss five weeks now. Thanks to our our buddy uh Weston here on the program,
guy in the cornfields. He sent me this earlier today. This was Brian Thomas Jr.
in Jacksonville with M. Jones as a quarterback last year. Mhm. Okay. 7 for 103, 7 for 91 and a touchdown, 9
for 132 and a touchdown, 10 for 105 and two touchdowns, 8 for 86, and he had double digit targets in all those games.
My my Ricky Paw 2025 dream is not dead. If Matt Jones made it work like that
once he got clicking last year with Brian Thomas, maybe he comes in here with Kyle Shanahan and they realize, yeah, we’re going to be okay. I got
Ricky Pierce Hall to throw the ball to. Coupled with the report that Bellich stopped talking to M. Jones
that year. That’s right. Yeah. Yeah. All right. We’re going to connect with Paul Chargian coming up next. Fantasy Football Hall of Famer. We’ll get his uh thoughts on tonight’s game
and some fantasy angles as well for week two in the National Football League coming up here on VO.
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This is follow the money on VS. More on tonight’s game and week 2
National Football League fantasy perspective from fantasy football hall of famer Paul Charian with guillotine
leagues.com and he is on the progressive guest line. Good afternoon Charge. Thanks for the time today. How’s it going?
Uh excited for a pretty good what should be a really good Thursday night game. Better than last week’s for sure. And
you know I’m excited to see if the Packers are close to the team that we saw last week so we can really get a
sense of whether or not you know how much that’s Detroit, how much of that is Micah Parsons, where is was an already really good defense and you know Jordan
Love looked good. Where does he do in the second game? There’s so many great storylines in this one. I’m I’m very excited for this. So, I I know that you
want to attack it from a Josh Jacobs angle here, but are you concerned that
one or two offensive linemen might miss for the Packers? Yeah. Well, I am because that did carry
that does carry some weight here and last year offensive line was a wreck and that really made a for a lot of
inconsistency. You had players playing the wrong positions. We always want Elton Jenkins playing center whenever we
can. He’s utility everything guy. Hopefully, he doesn’t have to move, but if he can, he has to. Um but we know the
consistency gets there when that offensive line is together. So we’re gonna be we’re gonna be watching this one closely as it gets up closer to
kickoff. Yeah, I think that’s probably the the right approach there. Um Jaka Krosky Merritt looked great last week. Uh had
that big run, went more than 80 yards. You know, it was a promising start for him. The seventh rounder for Washington
after they traded Brian Robinson to the 49ers in the offseason. What do you think he does tonight?
Um I I’m I’m actually somewhat optimistic. He went through all of his carries. They’re only 10. And so I don’t
want to make it sound like I was, you know, that it was a big labor to break this down. 10 carries, 82 yards. Uh
here’s the thing that he does that’s really special for Jaori Krosky Merritt. He gets the ball and his when he’s got
to make an very quick decision about the way this play is setting up and the way his blocking is going, his vision and
footwork behind the line of scrimmage is remarkable. And then he’s got some jets. So the play he he gets the ball. He
needs to make a quick a quick change. The footwork is there for him and then the acceleration. He had a 40 yard gain
and he’s he’s breaking down the right side. Uh it’s not quite in the sideline. He’s off the sideline. He’s got one
safety left, Tyler Nuben, that he needs to beat. And he jked Tyler Nubin so hard
the Metife Stadium crew is still jackhammering his jock strap out of the field turf there. Oh, it was a great
great play by Bill. We that’s I’m I’m optimistic that he’s going to do well here and frankly Washington’s a little
easier to run on than they are to pass on. What do you want to do with these Packer wide receivers?
I want to avoid them all. This is setting up just like last year. Okay, now we know, you know, we all thought
that Matthew Golden was going to be a much bigger factor right away. Right. No Christian Watson. You got Jaden Reed
playing with a Jones fracture in his foot. He looked mostly unaffected, but we’ve seen Jones fractures, guys. You
know, guys have lost seasons on that. I don’t know how he played through that. His his pregame morphine drip must look
like Niagara Falls, but he only ran 12 routes and so I think they’re limiting him. Romeo Dobs barely ran half of the
routes uh half of the the play the passing plays. He ran routes in just half and he was the high water mark and
Matthew Golden was only on the field for 23 snaps. And I’m this thing feels like it’s setting up just like last year
and it’s super frustrating to try to figure out which guy is going to be on the field and part of the game plan from
week to week. really tough. And Washington was a shockingly good pass defense last year. Over their last 16
games going back to last year, they’ve only given up eight wide receiver scores. That’s it. They just locked down Malik Neighbors, who’s better than
anybody on the Packers just last week. Malik Neighbors turned 12 targets into five scoreless catches last week. So,
I’m down on all the wide receivers. Okay, let’s hit player props uh for this weekend coming up and maybe some fantasy
angles here as well. I was thinking about approaching Hunter Henry as a tight end um among my plays this week,
but you think Kahan Booty and his uh receiving yards prop is a little bit low.
Yep. We’re watching his shoulder injury. It’s not a little low, Mitch. It’s broken. This is This is a broken line.
He is 34 and a half yards is Kahan Booty’s overunder and he is the Patriots
number one receiving option. Unqualified. And you’re like, “Oh, what about Stefon Diggs?” Booty led Patriots
receivers in targets, snaps, routes, run ahead of digs. And Booty is such a great
story. If you don’t remember, and I don’t blame you if you don’t, he’s he was the kid that he was a five-star
recruit out of high school in Louisiana, could have gone to any program he wanted, decided to go to LSU. He’s at
LSU. He’s beating out Malik Neighbors. I mean, he’s like he’s the number one guy at LSU. He’s just he’s he is a true
phenom. But it goes to his head a little bit. He starts dealing with injuries. He’s got attitude problems and then the
knockout punch for Kahan Booty. He’s betting on Louisiana football and gets and he gets busted and he gets knocked
out of college football and he’s got to go to the pros too early. So he gets drafted by the Patriots at 20 years old.
Now he’s only 23. He’s the same age as a lot of rookies and he in his third year Kahan Booty is good. his last three
three of his last four games going back to last year 95 yards 117 yards and last
week 103 yards and this guy’s over under 34 and a half yards as the go-to
receiver and against the Dolphins. Yes, this is a Dolphins team with a stench of death on them. Mitch and Paulolly, do
you remember my visit in studio in July when we talked about how Miami’s got a pathway to be the first overall pick in
next year’s draft and the worst team and we talked about McDaniels is the worst as the first fired coach. All of that
stuff coming into focus here. Um, and they and the loss of Jay J uh Jaylen uh Ramsey in
the secondary is huge. Uh they’re going to have to play Rasul Douglas at starting quarterback for Miami. He was a
street fe free free agent two weeks ago. Over way over. Yeah, he was he was great
against the Raiders. Good breakdown. What do I do with 49er players now?
Well, okay. I mean, mostly we’re going to avoid uh that you know, M. Jones isn’t a death sentence. I mean, he’s
okay. He’s, you know, I don’t blame you if you haven’t you didn’t break down seven games of his tape with Jacksonville, but let me just tell you
it he averaged 0.8 touchdown passes per game. Um, but you know, he also put
Brian Thomas on a solid NFL start to his NFL career. So, not disaster stuff.
you’re gonna start Christian McCaffrey anyway. The guy that you care about is Ricky Purel. So, let’s just talk about him because he’s the only real swing guy
for the 49ers right now. Put up 108 yards last week. But here’s the thing
you need to know. And without George KD and Jawan Jennings banged up, he’s going to get a lot of attention. The average
pass attempt to Ricky Pierce saw last week, 21 yards. 21. Wow. If he’s going
to do that on like eight, nine, 10 pass attempts, we’re looking at potentially a still really good game from Persaw. And
he’s the guy that I I would be sure to start. Do you know like top of your head like what’s average for that? You said 21
yards for Pearl. Like what’s a good number? Nine. Nine yards is a nine yards is a typical wide receiver average average
distance of throw and Paw was at 21 last night. Wow. Okay. Uh that’s very good. Okay.
So, I think most of us as football fans were hoping and kind of rooting that Nick Chub was going to be 100% healthy
the entire year and take off and be like in the mix to win the comeback player of the year. What do you specifically make
of his matchup coming up on Monday night against Tampa Bay? His overunder is 49 and a half. We’re
going to go under even though Chub looked good last week and it was great to see him. He actually led all starting running backs with a 39% avoided tackle
rate last week. He finished sixth in yards over expectation. There’s clearly a mandate for the Houston to keep using
Nick Chub and you can drop all the rest of the Texans runners right now. But everything else I’m going to tell you is all bad about this matchup. First, the
Houston offensive line was already bad and it lost starting center Jake Andrews who got carded off with a high ankle
sprain. They’re also they’re using Ed Ingram at right guard who was hor he is
horrible and he’s hurt too. They actually have to go to somebody worse than him potentially. Houston last week
ranked 26th in ESPN’s run block win rate. And honestly, that’s generous. And here comes Tampa. A great run defense
last year that finished fourth best in rushing yards allowed, fourth best in rushing touchdowns allowed. And this
year in week one, they finished third best in ESPN’s run stuff win rate. They
just held Bjan Robinson to two yards per carry last week. And here’s here’s the
amazing thing on this. Why we’re going under on Nick Chup. Going back to last year, five straight Buck games, no
running back has topped 26 rushing yards. That’s it. It’s This is a great
run defense. And I I can’t advocate for Chubby, even though I was delighted to see him look good in that first game.
Wow. I never would have guessed that. Only 26 yards. One more under. Um JSN
went off in his first game with Sam Darnold against the 49ers. Great calls. Great call, buddy. So, what about the guy that’s going to
be playing like on the field with him at times? Cooper Cup this week. Cooper Cup. Yeah. Uh overunder is 30 and
a half. We’re going under against Pittsburgh. Just two catches for 15 yards last week. So, maybe this feels
obvious, but what I’m really I I I worry that Cup wants to play out of the slot
where he’s always been effective with the Rams. That’s also where Jackson Smith and Jigba likes to run, prefers to run from the slot. So, we still see we
saw Cub get enough work, but we saw some signs that I did not like. They kicked Cup outside for half his routes. We know
in LA he was not effective as an outside receiver. He dropped a pass last year.
He only dropped two all year and he already dropped a pass in week one. And when you’ve got worries about somebody’s age, these are little things that just
make you go, I don’t know about this. But here’s the real killer. Tough matchup in the slot with
Pittsburgh’s new quarterback, Jaylen Ramsay. Ramsay not normally a slot guy. With Pittsburgh making this trade, we
didn’t know for sure how they’d use him. They used him in slot coverage last week. And here’s what he gave up as a
slot quarterback. One catch, six yards, and had two pass breakups for Jaylen
Ramsey. Brutal matchup for Cooper Cup. So good. You’re the best. Paul Chartian
on X. Guillotinees.com is the website. Thanks, pal. Good luck tonight. Thanks, friends. Drew Butler on Georgia,
Tennessee, and
Urban City Podcast Group
