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Major Takeaways
Betting in the early weeks of the season is a guessing game: Matt Humans emphasizes that the first couple of weeks are challenging for bettors because they don’t yet know what to expect from many of the teams.
Underdogs and in-game betting are valuable strategies: The hosts highlight the potential value in backing underdogs and using live, in-game betting to get better numbers, especially in high-total games.
Oklahoma is a favorite worth laying the points on: Despite a general aversion to laying big numbers early in the season, Matt Humans believes in the Sooners’ defense under Brent Venables and their home-field advantage against a freshman quarterback.
College Football Week 2 Betting Breakdown: Top Bets, Dogs, and Revenge Spots
This is VSIN college football betting podcast.
Welcome in another edition of the VSIN College Football Betting Podcast. It is
the Thursday breakdown of the card. Week two of the college football season is
here. I’m Tim Murray and joined as always on Thursdays by the one and only Matt Humans at Matt Humans247. I’m at
one. Tim Murray, Mr. Humans, an up and down week one. I think for us, some
opportunities from preseason bets or, you know, when we were out in
Hawaii knowing that that would be a tricky spot. You and I didn’t want to bet bad numbers. So, overall okay week,
but uh here to do better for week two. Yeah. Not going to make excuses, but uh
went three and four on the seven plays I gave out on this podcast last week. of the three big games. I won two of them,
LSU and Miami, but I was way off target on Texas. We’ll talk a little bit more about the Longhorns coming up here, but
uh it was not a great week zero for you and I was great. Week one, not so hot.
Um come back hopefully we can uh turn week two into a winner. But uh like I’ve
said before, you can’t go crazy with betting college football right now in the first couple weeks of the season.
It’s a guessing game with some of these teams. what you’re going to see. And uh
you know this nobody thought Alabama was going to look as bad as Alabama looked last weekend.
No. And that is uh certainly my biggest miss. I know it’s not technically a losing bet yet, but that is not a
playoff team and they’ve got a lot of uphill battles going. You can’t lose that game. But we’ll dive into all of
that. Only one game between top 25 teams as opposed to last week when we had
three games amongst top 10 teams. I still think it’s a pretty good card this week. And uh it’s college football, so
we’re excited regardless. So, let’s get right into it. The biggest games of the week, the main course.
And that’s right, we call it the main course cuz we like to eat food here. And we are hungry for some big ones. And
Matt, let’s head down to Norman, Oklahoma. The only ranked versus ranked matchup. I’m really pumped for this
game. College Game Day will be there 7:30 Eastern time, ABC. We’ve got number
18 Oklahoma, number 15 Michigan. Look ahead lines. I know there were some two
and a halfs out there, Matt. Uh those have been scooped up uh from way back.
And now you’re looking around five, five and a half in favor of the Oklahoma
Sooners. Well, I think DraftKings still has a four and a half if what I see on the screen is an accurate number. So,
there’s plenty of spots out there where you can lay five. And yeah, DraftKings showing Oklahoma minus four and a half,
circa five. And I’m I’m gonna lay it here with the Sooners. I’m I’ve um not
played many favorites here early in the college football season. Tim played Hawaii minus 2 and a half against Stanford. We squeakaked that one out
23-20. Uh I did play not big because we didn’t get the best of the number. Uh but I did
play uh Arizona laying 16 and a half against Hawaii last week. Uh that was a winner. loser laying the big points with
UNLV in week one against Idaho State and I’m going to lay a shorter number here with Oklahoma. You could have laid two
and a half like you said early four and a half five now but I’m going to do it with the Sooners and Brent Venable
should have the upper hand here. Say what you want about Venbables as a head coach as a defensive coordinator and play caller. He’s at his best typically
and that’s why I expect to see here is Venbables getting the best of Bryce Underwood the freshman quarterback who’s
making his first start on the road. Hey, if if Arch Manning can look that bad in his first road start at Ohio State,
Underwood should uh be facing a pretty stiff challenge here in his first road start at Oklahoma against Brent
Venerables and that defense. Now, I know a lot of people are going to laugh and say, “Well, it’s Illinois State last
week.” Illinois State was a 10- win team last year. So, when you talk about some of these lower level opponents, uh
Illinois State’s not a bad one. Oklahoma outgainained him 495 to 151. Venable’s
defense lived up to the hype against that opponent last week. And uh I think
he can probably keep Underwood under wraps in this game. He was Underwood 21
for 31, 251 yards and a touchdown against New Mexico. But that Lobo’s
defense is nothing special. And I think this Sooners defense is going to be something special. And Tim, I know like
me, you expect a lot out of this Oklahoma offense this season. John Matier, the transfer from Washington
State. New coordinator cames over from Washington State. I’m not really sure why Jade KN, the running back from Cal,
only had one carry last week. I don’t know if there’s something wrong with that, but the Sooners should be able to
move the ball on the ground. Jade not or not. And especially it’s going to help if he’s out there. This is one favorite
I do kind of like this week. I’m going to play Oklahoma minus five. Yeah, a lot of interesting aspects to
this game. John Matier down to 12 to one to win the Heisman Trophy at Circa. A
lot of movement in the betting market, obviously because of the Arch Manning performance, Kate Clubnick’s performance. John Matier, I I’ve been
curious about him, Matt, because of the level of competition he played at Washington State, and now this is really
his first big test, but he will get it at home. Obviously, his offensive coordinator, Arbuckle, is with him here,
but I think this defense for Michigan is the real deal. Even though they lose, you know, Mason Graham with the fifth
overall pick and Kenneth Grant with the 13th overall pick. So, I I’m going to
stay off of this game. I do I did see the first half under got hit pretty good this week. 23 and a half down to around
22 21 a half. So, uh, that makes some sense, especially of what we saw last
betting market here. I I think your point is valid, though. What are we going to get from Bryce Underwood in his
first true road start? We saw a couple of youngsters really struggle. Tai Simpson was not very good for Alabama.
You mentioned Arch Manning. I thought CJ Carr was was decent uh at times against
uh Miami there, but this is going to be a cranked up atmosphere. Also worth noting here, Matt, uh Jan Barum, the uh
linebacker for Michigan. I thought it was ridiculous targeting call. Chiron Moore uh tried to get that overturned.
He’s going to be out the first half here. So that is something to note uh heading into this game with uh with
Barum being out for the first half. So, uh, Michigan, Oklahoma, biggest game of the week. You are going to take or lay
the points here with Oklahoma. Uh, I would be Michigan or pass, but ultimately, Matt, I think I’ll pass. And
I think once again, you you pointed this out in week one show. In-game betting is
really a great opportunity, and with this being the biggest game on the board, I I think you’ll have plenty of
opportunities to maybe find a position if you want to from an in-game standpoint. But to me, it would be, you
know, under and dog. But I think ultimately I’ll stay off until the in-game standpoint. And you’re going to
roll with uh with Oklahoma here laying the five. So that’s the night game. Matt, let’s go earlier in the day. Uh
you and I love betting noon Eastern games, right, Matt? There’s nothing better than a 9:00 a.m. Pacific time
game. You and I love to bet these games, right? That that’s the way we like to do it. Tim, I can The audience can sense the
sarcasm in your voice. You know, I hate the 9 a.m. picking up on the sarcast
9 a.m. games and uh there’s nothing worse than getting off to a poor start on a Saturday morning. And I have not
had good luck with Saturday. I’d say I’m more of a night owl. Maybe that’s why I have trouble picking winners in the 9:00 a.m. games. I’m a lot more successful
picking winners in the the night games. But yes, there’s a 9:00 am game. If you happen to sleep through this game,
you’re probably not going to be missing much because I have a pretty good idea which game you’re about to talk about.
Noon Eastern, Matt, ESPN, Illinois versus Duke. And I know our friend Chris
uh the Bear Felica pointed this out one out early on social media. This will be
the old headscratching h why is the 11th ranked team in the country only a
three-point favorite against Duke. Duke was tied at the half against Elon in the first uh in their first game of the
season. But Matt, we talked about Illinois in the preseason pod that you and I did together talking about your
top 25. You did not have Illinois in your top 25. And I think you and I are going to align on this game. Illinois
laying three on the road against the Duke Blue Devils. Yeah, I thought you were going to tee up
the Iowa Iowa State Saihawk Classic there, but I guess we’ll get to that later. Um Darien Mensa, transfer
quarterback from Tain. I think it’s going to be difference in this game. Mensah 389 yards passing, three
touchdowns. Yes, it was against Elon, but uh the Blue Devils did what they were supposed to do in the second half
of the game after they tied at 10. Pull away and and win the game 4517.
548 total yards for the Duke offense. And again, Illinois blew blew out
Western Illinois, but Illinois State’s a much better team than Western Illinois when you talk about the lower level
opponents. Western Illinois is a bad football team. Now, I know the Ali brought back a bunch of experience. They
bring back Luke Altmire at quarterback. And if the Ali have one edge in this game, it’s going to be the ground.
They’re going to be able to run the ball probably against this Duke defense a little bit too much. It makes me a little uncomfortable here. But I like
the home dog. I’m playing Duke plus three in what I think should be a picking game. I’m really high on Darien Mensah, the Twain transfer quarterback,
like I mentioned, and I think Duke’s got enough to get this done. Uh, so this is
uh one of one of uh two home dogs I really like uh this week and that’s
going to be Duke. I’m with you. I took the three with Duke. I was hoping three and a half
would show up. I don’t think we’re going to get there. If I had to guess, Matt, I think we’ll see a little Duke love come
in later in the week. You look at betting splits right now. Uh this will be the proverbial pros versus Joe’s
are on Illinois. Uh this is going to be a spot where it looks like it’s easy and I just I don’t think it will be. Manny
Diaz last year as a as an underdog 52 and one ATS and you mentioned it. This
is a Duke program that went out and spent big, right? They brought in Malik Murphy. He did okay last year, but they
said, “We want to upgrade the quarterback position.” And they went out and got Mensah 389 yards a week ago,
albeit a lot of it in the second half. They bring back Jacquz Moore at the running back position and they brought
in an FCS transfer and of course Duke would bring in a Harvard kid. Uh but he was really good. Cooper uh Barcate, he
had five catches for a buck 17 last week against Elon. So uh they got some receivers. Now, uh I did see this note
uh from my buddy Todd Ferman. Duke has lost 37 of their last 38 games against
top 12 teams, but they did get that win on Labor Day Monday night against Clemson with Riley Leonard at the helm.
They were ninth in the country. But uh both of these teams rather untested in week one. Illinois beat Western
Illinois. But I’m with you. I think this Illinois team’s a little bit overrated from where they were last year. 10 wins
and I’m going to take the three with the home dog as well. So, a common play there. We’re both going to be on Duke
against Illinois. Matt, let’s go to the game you mentioned already. The SIHawk
Trophy also noon Eastern. Big noon kickoff is going to be there. Uh this will kick off on Fox Iowa State. Boy,
you have to be impressed by what we’ve seen from the Cyclones so far this year. I thought they would be in a letown spot
a week ago. I backed the wrong Dakota because apparently North Dakota was going to be feisty and not South Dakota,
but Iowa State was phenomenal a week ago. And also worth noting here, Kamari Molton, uh the starting running back for
Iowa has been ruled out. He’s going to be out for a little bit. Um did text with someone who covers the team. Didn’t
think it would be that big of a worry. So, we’ll take them for what their word at their word. Matt, if you watched any
of the highlights, I’m not going to say I sat back and watched all of Iowa Albany a week ago, but Mark Granowski,
boy, I thought I expected some big things from Granowski, the South Dakota State transfer. How about 44 yards
passing and not a not a very uh inspiring performance. He did mention he
was nervous first game with Iowa, all of that. So that makes me a little bit hesitant, but still he’s played a whole
lot of football. Over 12,000 total yards in his career, 130 touchdowns at South Dakota State. Matt,
look, the betting market, maybe this is a trap because you hear it all the time, right? Two and a half means the dogs
probably the right side, three and a half, the favorite. So maybe I’m falling into the trap here. But with a total of
41 and a half, kind of a a little bit of a sell high on Iowa State, I’m going to
take the three and a half here with Iowa and hope that a veteran quarterback like Mark Granowski is going to have a much
better performance here for the Hawkeyes. So, I’m going to go ahead and take the three and a half. Matt, it is
worth noting uh the under in this rivalry has been very advantageous to
betterers as this is 17 and3 to the under since 2004.
Right now the number sits at 41 a.5 pretty much marketwide for Iowa Iowa State.
Probably going to pass on this game. Tempted to play the Hawkeyes plus three and a half or under as well if I played
it. That’s what I would play. Tim, I had to laugh last week because I made the joke that I can’t wait to see Mark
Granowski hand off in the Iowa offense and you scoffed and you said, “Oh, Brian France is not there anymore.” Well, it’s
still the Brian France offense. That’s what they were running last week. I got to tell you the probably the biggest
betting win I had last week. I parlayed Granowski over seven and a half completions with over 43 and a half
passing yards at DraftK. No, I’m just kidding. Um, eight for 15 for
eight for 15 for 44 yards. Unbelievable. 34 to7 against Albany. Uh, Iowa is going
to be able to run the ball as usual. But you got to wonder, were the Hawkeyes just keeping it under wraps? Were they
saving everything in their passing attack for Iowa State? And they’re going to throw a big surprise out there this
week. I don’t know. But, uh, I’m I’m going to pass on this. I need to see more from Granowski and from this Iowa
offense. Like I said, I’m tempted to bet the dog here. Uh probably if I had to play either side anything here, I’d
probably bet this under the total, but I’m going to pass for now. Matt, another noon game in the main
course. We’ve got Baylor on the road against the ponies of SMU. And I know
you were disappointed in the performance we saw from Baylor a week ago, especially defensively as Jackson Arnold
was able to run for 137 yards and two touchdowns in that win for Auburn over
Baylor. Look, this is a big spot here for the Baylor Bears on the road at SMU.
Short home dog or short road dog, I should say. This is a high total, so I would say, you know, the points, maybe
you could bet this in-game and get a better number on e either side the way you look at it. Now, as a betting
podcast, it’s a little hard to do that. So, I I do like Baylor here in a little bit of a bounceback spot. I’m not high
on this SMU team entering this year. Matt, how about the fact that last week
SMU had a pair of pick sixes against East Texas A&M, whatever that is, and
only outgainained them by 49 yards. So, SMU 1 and0, but how good are they going
to be, Matt? They lost nine starters on defense. They lost their running back and Brashard Smith. He got drafted into
the NFL over,300 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns. Now, I will say Kevin Jennings is back and certainly mobile
quarterbacks gave this Baylor defense fits last week. No doubt about it, Matt, as Jackson Arnold had such a monster
day. I do wonder and maybe this is me giving the benefit of the doubt to David Aranda and I shouldn’t do so, but you
were facing elite wide receivers and Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton, the transfer from Georgia Tech. They held them to
four catches for 43 yards. It felt like they picked their poison. So, can they
switch that mindset and try to bottle up Kevin Jennings? We will see. But I’m going to take Baylor here, Matt, as a
short road dog in this one. Wanted the three, missed the three. Obviously, we’re recording this on Thursday, so the
threes don’t exist, but I’m going to take Baylor plus the points. I think they win this game outright. And as
mentioned, with a total of 64, Matt, you’re probably going to be able to get a better number than two and a half on
both sides at some point in this game. Well, I got burned by Baylor last week.
I was one of the losers I had on this podcast last week. Very disappointed in Dave Miranda’s team. I expected a lot
better. So, after getting burned by the Bears, I don’t want to come back with them here. You know, there’s a few teams out of Texas had some questions about
before the season. How good’s Baylor going to be? Looked like after the strong finish last season, Bears were
going to be pretty good. I was disappointed last week. Uh SMU, not quite sure. TCU. I think we all had to
be pretty impressed with what the Horn Frogs did to uh Bill Bich on Monday night. So, I think TCU looks like the
best of those three teams. I I don’t have I’m not even going to guess at uh this Baylor SMU game. I think you talked
favorite set of matchups, those spicy matchups, just a reminder, we were recently out in Hawaii. Matt, we had a
show on Saturday from the brilliantly uh located Sheridan Wiki Beach Resort.
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the edge pool with sunrise and glow sessions. You’ll find there as well. The Sheridan WQ Ki, a proud sponsor of the
VSN College Football Betting Podcast. So yeah, that was uh quite the place. Dara
and her team were amazing and we can’t thank them enough for hooking us up with that location for our VON college
football tailgate show back in week zero. All right, Matt, I know that you tend to like a little uh a little spice
to your flavor of food. So, let’s get to those games this weekend. Moe,
spicy matchups. Matt, I’m pretty fired up about this one. Let’s go to Stark Vegas. Our
colleague Stormmy Bonaton. I don’t know what she’ll have to do with her IFBs because those cowbells are going to be
ringing as Mississippi State plays host to 12th ranked Arizona State. This will be at 7:30 on ESPN 2. Matt, and I did
have to laugh as I saw a video from Arizona State practice where they had
team managers with cowbells. Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding. I’m like, “Buddy, you have no idea what you’re
about to walk into to try to mimic the cowbells.” And also
Sam Levit, the quarterback of Arizona State. He said the Cowbells reminded him of high school. So, uh, I think maybe
the fans down there in Stark Vegas might be a little bit extra amped up for this game. But all that aside, Matt, really
fun game. I want the seven. I’m still waiting for the seven. We’ll see if we get it back. But I think Arizona State
could be in some trouble here. I think this is a really tricky spot as they head on the road down to Starkville.
More cowbell, Tim. More cowbell. That’s one of the great Saturday Night Live skits of all time. I have not watched
Saturday Night Live in probably 20 years, but that was a great one back in the day. Uh you’re going to hear plenty
of cowbell Saturday in Starkville for this game as well. You’re going to see a lot of Blake Shapen, too. He was limited
to what, four games last year with the shoulder injury. Knocked him out and that Jeff
Big disappointment. Uh Bulldogs lost on the road to Arizona State. That was before we knew really how good Arizona
State was going to be. Cam Scataboo was the difference in that game. He tore up
the Bulldogs on the ground. Uh he’s not there now. He’s with the New York Giants and that’s going to make a big difference I think especially when the
Sunundevils team hits the road and you don’t have that stud running back who can get those tough yards, convert those
third downs. I do love Sam Levit as a young quarterback. Jordan Tyson is big play wide receiver. Tyson had 12
catches, 140 yards against Northern Arizona last week. He had two touchdowns
in that game, too. Sunundevils were not that sharp. They beat the Lumberjacks 38-19.
Um, I think that Mississippi State’s defensive game plan here is going to have to be, you know, kind of double
Tyson, take him away or limit him as much as possible because that’s a guy Sam Levit wants to go to. Uh Mississippi
State looked better defensively to me uh last week in that game at Southern Miss. And offensively, Jake Blake Shapen led
that uh offense to 465 total yards. This the first game that jumped off the page
to me this week. Hopefully I’m right about it. First bet I made, Mississippi State plus 7. And uh right now we’re
going to get 6 and a half. That’s the best number out there in the market. I still think the Bulldogs are dangerous
home dogs here in this spot. And Arizona State probably laying a little too much going on the road to face an SEC
opponent that is improved from last season. So I’m on Miss State.
You know, a year ago, Matt, Arizona State, who came out of nowhere, right? They were a 6 and a half point home
favorite against Mississippi State. They won that game 30-23. They were up big in
that one as you alluded to, 27-3. Cam Scataboo going for 262. And now you’re a
6 and 12 point road favorite. So, there’s a belief that this Arizona State
understandably so, and has taken a a step in the right direction. I I do think, you know, maybe a little bit of
regression’s coming for Arizona State, a team that was plus 14 in the turnover margin a year ago. Mississippi State,
you mentioned it, Blake Shapen dealt with injuries last year, very disappointing season for Jeff Lebby and company. I just think this is going to
be a great environment, maybe the best environment outside of Oklahoma on Saturday, a night game down there in
Starkville. I I was impressed by Brennan Thompson, seven catches, 92 yards, the Oklahoma transfer, and his connection
with Blake Shapen. I’ll point this out. You know, people are going to roll their eyes and say whatever, they beat Southern Miss. There were a lot of
people this off season saying that Southern Miss might beat Mississippi State and that was a pretty dominant
performance by the Bulldogs. They won 34 to7, Matt, 100% postgame win expectancy.
They proved that they were the SEC team even on the road against a team that a lot of people including me are are
expecting some better things from this year from the Golden Eagles. So that was an impressive performance I thought for
Mississippi State on the road uh at Southern Miss. You mentioned it Arizona State played Northern Arizona. Look, Sam
Lev can use his legs. Seven carries, 73 yards, two touchdowns, had a 52 yard run
against Northern Arizona. I was surprised that Kanye Udo, the Army
transfer, only got two carries in that game. Are they saving him for this game? Is something going on there? So, he was
believed to be maybe one of the guys to replace Scataboo. But I’m with you. Uh I missed the seven unfortunately, but I
still think Mississippi State at six and a half worth of play. And hopefully we get that seven back. But this will be an
official play for me. Give me Mississippi State plus the points. Matt, we’ve had a lot of um we’ve had a lot of
jawing this week, whether it was Davo versus Brian Kelly, mentioned uh Sam Levit talking about the Cowbells. Well,
how about Oregon and Oklahoma State? We talked about this on VO prime time. And you do wonder if this does get maybe a
little extra fire lit under the ass of this Oregon team as Mike Gundy called
out Oregon talking about how they pay their team $40 million. They’ve only
spent $7 million. Uh Oregon is paying a lot of money for their team. From a
non-conference standpoint, there’s coaches saying they should play teams with similar budgets. Dan Lanning
responded, “If you want to be a top 10 team in college football, you better be invested in winning.” And you remember
back to the Colorado and Oregon game, his pregame speech for that one. They’re
here for clicks, we’re here for wins, something to that effect. Matt, they were up, I think, 35 to nothing at
halftime uh in that particular game. Uh not going to be an official play, but I did lay a little bit on Oregon in the
first half here. You got to remember, too, Oklahoma State’s starting quarterback broke his foot, so he’s out.
Uh this could be ugly, especially if Dan Lanning wants to make it ugly. So, not
an official play, but I’m curious to see how this one plays out and if Dan Lanning maybe steps on the throat a
little bit more after Gundy couldn’t uh shut up his yapper on Monday night.
Yeah, Gundy probably should not have been talking before this game, but you know, that’s who Mike Gundy is, right?
He’s a swashbuckler. He’s going to run his mouth and loose cannon. Uh, I think
he’s going to pay for it here. Now, Dan Lanning needs to get this Oregon offense on track. Dante Moore as a quarterback.
I’ve got a lot of questions about former transfer from UCLA. Maybe this is a type of game that’s going to be a confidence
builder for him and that Ducks offense. Uh like you talked about, you got a
freshman quarterback on the road for Oklahoma State. The the quarterback who went down, how do you pronounce his
name, Tim? Quarterback. I think it’s Henry. Anyway, he’s got
some wheels and he had some potential, I thought, after watching him in that uh opening game, but he goes down with a
broken foot and now you got to turn to a freshman. You’re going on the road at Oregon and you’re going to get blown out
here. I almost I don’t want to say this is a game where Dan Lanning can name the score. Uh I don’t think it’s to that
extent, but this is going to be one where Dan Lanning could pour it on, I think, in the second half. and uh he he
kind of wants to rub Mike Gundy’s face in the manure here. So, it would be Oregon or
right now, but I might end up uh making some sort of play on Oregon if I see something that pops up here. It would be
lay the points or nothing because I think uh Dan Landing is going to want to put it on Gundy pretty good.
Well, speaking of revenge, we saw a couple revenge spots this week when you
don’t have a bet on this game, but curious to get your quick thoughts on it, Matt, as Old Miss, really the reason they missed out on the playoff last year
was a loss to Kentucky, an inexplicable loss, a team that won one conference game in Kentucky and now Miss goes on
the road to Kentucky. Uh, they’re laying 10 here. Uh, you rode up the SEC for the VSON guide. Any interest in the favorite
here in getting some revenge on the road at Big Blue Nation? You know, we just talked about Oklahoma
State and that’s one of my uh win total best bets for the season’s under five. I also played Kentucky under four and a
half. I just want Old Miss to get the win here. I’m not going to lay the big number. Uh, you can talk all you want
about Lane Keifin in the revenge angle, but Mark Stops might have his number a little bit. and Stoops obviously can put
put a pretty good defense on the field and he might be able to find out ways to slow Austin Simmons in this Old Miss
offense and beat up on a pathy last week. I didn’t think Kentucky was going to be very good. Still don’t. Zack Kada
the seventh year journeyman quarterback 10 for 23 85 yards passing with a pick.
Talk about all the poor performances we saw from quarterbacks a week ago. Zack Kzado is on that list as well. Wildcats
can run the ball. They went for 220 on the ground a week ago against Toledo in
that game. Thanks to the Rockets. I appreciate the Rockets, by the way, getting the back door cover in that game, 24-16.
Needed that one. Uh Wildcats can run the ball and like I said, they put up 220 on the ground a week ago. I I could see
Kentucky hanging around in this game. Uh I’m not overconfident in Lane Keifin rolling into Lexington and winning this
by a huge margin here. So, uh, I’m I’m going to pass on the game and just hope Miss gets it. Hey, look, for all the
bitching and crying and whining that Lane Keifin did last year about getting left out of the playoff, take care of
business as a two touchdown home favorite. That was a embarrassing loss for Kein. He has one of those almost
every year. You know, he he loses a two touchdown home favorite to a Kentucky team that went 1 and7 in the SEC. That
was Mark Stop’s only win. If Keifin wins that game, he’s probably in the playoff.
So, don’t complain about the playoff committee. Take care of business at home. I I think revenge is an overplayed
angle by a lot of handicappers. Old Miss would just be happy to go in there and get the win by seven or whatever. I’m
not going to lay the points here. Matt, you also have a win total over
Missouri. Very advantageous schedule for the Tigers. I thought Bo Priva looked pretty solid. Uh he took over that QB1
role. uh ran a lot in that season opening win against I believe Central Arkansas. So, we got the border war uh
here 3:30 Eastern. This game will be on a uh ESPN 2 and Missouri right now
laying 6 and a half against Kansas. Um look, I’m a big Lance Liipold guy. Um I
I I do get worried a little bit uh about this defense against Missouri, but boy, it feels like a decent amount of points
there for a rivalry game. Missouri laying 6 and a half against the Jay-Hawks. Well, on the theme of win totals here,
like you said, I’ve got my biggest win total bet is Missouri over seven and a
little bit concerned about this game. I just need the Tigers to win this game. I’m not going to lay the points. Price is a little bit steeper than what I
thought. I I made this number four and a half. So, I don’t know if I’m a little bit off here, but I think Kansas Jaden
Daniels Jaylen Daniels is off to a hot start here for the Jay-Hawks. And I think they can make the Tigers sweat in
this game. I’m not going to lay the points. I’m just going to hope Missouri gets the win. I expect Missouri to get the win, but I don’t think it’s going to
be easy. Yeah, once again, I mean, it’s you kind of look at past results. All right,
Kansas smashed Fresno State and then Fresno State turned around and crushed Georgia Southern. Now, do you play that
or is that some sort of um just kind of wacky coincidence? But yeah, I think
Kansas in a rivalry game, the Border War, uh these two fan bases certainly don’t like each other. So, it’ll be an
entertaining game nonetheless to watch that one. Matt, Florida beat the mighty Long Island Sharks last week. But all
kidding aside, Florida’s about to embark on maybe the most difficult schedule in all of college football. So, if you have
to open up the season against a a joke of a program like Long Island, hey, maybe you’ll take it. But boy, this game
got a little bit more interesting, didn’t it? 415 SEC Network. We’ve got Florida taking on South Florida. And
what I’ve noted here is that Florida is getting a little bit of support here in the market. This thing is up 17 12 18 at
Circa in favor of the Gator. South Florida was very strong in that win over
Boise State, but they benefited from some, you know, poor red zone production from Boise. Um, I did come away
impressed by South Florida, but it does feel like you’re punching up in class. You and I don’t like laying big numbers,
but curious your thoughts on South Florida in Gainesville on Saturday.
Yeah, the uh the Sharks were out of their element in the swamp last week and you know, I’ll give Sunbelt Billy a
little bit of a break. I don’t like the Florida scheduled Long Island schedule. A little bit more of a respectable
opponent than that, but he does have an extremely difficult schedule coming up here. So, uh, it was going to be Florida
needed needed to schedule a layup against somebody and got it against Long Island. Okay, so cautionary tale here
about South Florida. I bet the Bulls last year against Miami and they got off to a great start, looked promising early
and ended up getting blown out in that game by the Hurricanes. I could kind of see something similar happening
happening here against the Gator. Uh Byron Brown pretty strong in that game against Boise State. 210 yards passing,
43 yards rushing. But Tim, the score, the 34 to7 score is not really indicative of of how that game was
played. I don’t think it was that lopsided. When you look at the box score, South Florida was not all that
impressive offensively and uh gave up a lot of yards to the Boise offense. The
Broncos killed themselves with three fumbles, three loss fumbles, and uh that’s where the game got out of control
in the second half. So, I’m not going to go overboard here and say this South Florida team uh could could roll into
the swamp and uh beat the Gators. I’m concerned that it could go the way the South Florida Miami game went a year ago
when the Bulls got off to a great start, lost control of the game in the second half. I’m tempted to take the points
here. It’s a lot of points and you’re tempted to take it with South Florida, but as of right now, I’m probably going
to pass. It does to me feel a little bit like a trap. That that’s a big number. We all
saw them on Thursday open up week one with that win, but you’re right. I mean,
you look at some of the numbers for that game, it was maybe just a little bit misleading there for USF. Not as
dominant as the four touchdown victory may may look there uh at 34 to7. And I
think DJ Lagway and company, boy, that was uh yeah, you can’t really take much from LIU, but I think this Florida team,
I do have a little bit under seven and a half on Florida just because if Lagway gets hurt, how big of the drop off is it
at the quarterback position? But I think Florida could win big here. But not something I am going to play. Something
you’re going to play. Let’s go back to a night game, Matt. And this game will be 7:30 on ACC Network. I had Virginia Tech
last week, and boy was I disappointed in the quarterback performance from Kairen
Drones. As I thought Virginia Tech had every opportunity to to cover in that
game. And then you give up a punt return as they get, you know, Virginia Tech gets beamer balled by by Shane Beamer
there. So in the Beamer Bowl, South Carolina gets the win, gets the cover, much to my chagrin. And now Virginia
Tech comes back home. Brent Prize already feeling the heat and you’re facing a team in Vanderbilt that last
year you were a double- digit favorite going to Nashville. You lost the game outright and you’ve got the underdog god
that is Diego Pavia 8-2 ATS as an underdog a year ago at New Mexico State
in his final year there. Believe he was 52 and one ATS and one of those games he
got hurt. So I think 51-1 ATS when he finished his games. This is a
fascinating game on a Saturday night. You know it’s going to be hopping down there at Lane Stadium and Salmon all of
that. Virginia Tech at some shops is actually a favorite here. We’ll call it a pick them,
and a halfs out there in favor of the Hokes. Yeah, I’m taking uh Vandy and the points
and you stole my material here on Diego uh Diego Pave and the underdog stats.
I I like to I like the Commodores in the underdog role here. And this line, I think, is telling you something. When
Virginia Tech is less than a three-point home favorite, you’re seeing pick them out there at some spots. Um, one of the
great stories, Diego Pava in college football. Talk about a guy who started out at New Mexico Institute, went to New
Mexico State, and now at Vandy. All right, that’s not exactly hopping from one five-star hotel to another one. Uh,
that’s the drags of college football. And, you know, aside from the Vandy
story, this team’s been really competitive against the heavyweights in the SEC, including Alabama last year. I
like uh I like the Commodores in this spot. I was very disappointed in that Virginia Tech performance on uh Sunday.
And again, Tim, we’re talking about quarterbacks who were disappointing in the first week. How about Kairen Drones
of the Hokes? 15 for 35 with two picks. That was a poor performance from the
VTEC quarterback. I’m going to go with Vandy here. I think the line is telling you to take the Commodores on the road.
All right, Matt, let’s just run through some other games. Uh not necessarily plays. is I do have a couple plays on
some of these games, but uh Arch Manning’s bounceback San Jose State uh talk about disappointing performance.
Boy, I did not see them losing to Central Michigan to start the college football season. Kenya Matalo said it
was one of the worst losses of his career and they lose to Central Michigan as two touchdown favorites. Well, it
doesn’t get easier. Noon Eastern on ABC. You got to take on a me an upset Texas
squad. 36 and a half. What do we see from Arch Manning, Matt?
Well, hopefully we see much better performance from Arch than we saw against Ohio State. Um, I’ll tell you
right now, Diego Pavia has got a better chance to win the Heisman than Arch Manning. And I’m serious about that. The
Arch that I talked a lot about Arch and you know 8 to1 Heisman bet I made before
the season. I’ve already lit that on fire and uh have no regrets. He’s got no
shot. you might as well put him at 100 to one right now. He’s not going to win it. But Texas has got some shots here to
uh some get right games right for this offense coming up and San Jose State’s going to be one of them. So Arch is
going to put up some numbers. He’s going to look better the next few weeks. But I I can’t get past how bad he looked
against that Buckeye’s defense. And I’m I’m just talking about uh his footwork
and his mechanics were sloppy. Uh, fundamentals, footwork, fundamentals,
and mechanics. All sloppy. Throwing off his back foot, throwing sidearm. He’s got a running back cutting across the
middle and you need to throw a touch pass and lead him a little bit. He fires a rocket at the running back’s knees. He
first pass of the game. He’s got a wide receiver open 20 yards out in the flat and he bounces at 15 yards. There some
and the the pick he threw was a really bad decision where he didn’t read the defense quickly enough, was slow to make
the throw, and it got picked off. Arch uh really disappointed me in the way he
played against Ohio State. That said, Julian Sand and the Ohio State offense
didn’t impress the hell out of me either. Texas outgainained Ohio State 336 to 203 in that
better play calling from Sarkc, little bit better play from Arch Manning, and I think Texas could have been the winning
side there. But again, you can’t go back and play it again. Uh, I think uh what Sark’s gonna want to have happen here is
Texas is, like I said, got to get some get-right performances offensively and they can get it here. You and I both
like coach Ken at San Jose State, but that’s a bad bad loss. The Spartans are
coming off. Can’t lose that game. You can’t you cannot lose that game at home. Now you’re going on the road against Texas and you’re going to get
destroyed. I could see something here, Tim, like 52-3.
uh some some lopsided score. I don’t know. Walker Eat and the San Jose State offense got some potential and they
could get a couple of back door scores. This Texas defense is not going to give up much in the first half though. If San
Jose State’s going to get something, it’s probably going to come after halftime. So, keep an eye on maybe some live betting aspects of this game. I
just I feel like that uh Texas needs a pickme up and it’s going to get it here against San Jose State. Very
disappointed in the Spartans and their performance in the opener.
Texas had an 82.2% postgame win expectancy in that loss
there to uh to Ohio State. Hey, just a reminder folks, we got some great sponsors part of this podcast, including
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aloha. Matt, I want to jump to a game that we saw late in the season a year ago and I was on the dog in this game
and I was very fortunate to get a cover. That was Yukon and Syracuse a year ago. Yukon scored a back door touchdown with
like 90 seconds to go. Syracuse team that I am down on this year. Schedule’s
brutal. And Yukon, as many of you know, is an independent and they play three
ACC teams this year. These are their Super Bowls. They play at Syracuse, at Boston College, and they host Duke later
on in the season. They’ve got a veteran quarterback and Joey Fenano back for another year. Their running back Cam
Edwards back. Uh Skyler Bell uh also back for another season. So this number
moved from 8 1/2 down to 6 and 1/2. So it left me off a bit, but I’d be curious if Yukon at noon Eastern on ESPN Plus if
they are a feisty underdog in this role in the noon window slot. But I I felt
like Matt I don’t need another noon window uh pain. So I’m gonna gonna pass
on this one. I want to ask you real quickly just go ahead. I’m going to mention about that game. Like you said,
that’s a 9:00 a.m. game. I decide to pass, too. But this to me is more about the number. I like the Yukon side here.
I like the Huskies as dogs, but the problem is Circa opened this at nine and
now it’s 6 and a half. So, you’re too late to the party to bet Yukon at this point, but I agree with the line move.
Well, I will say this real quickly. Think back to last year. Syracuse had a
pro quarterback, three really good receivers. two of them in the pros now. One’s at Penn State, a pro running back,
and that number closed 10, and this number opened nine. So, the market was probably off on this because Syracuse is
significantly downgraded. Um, but we’ll see how this one plays out. Uh, Syracuse
coming off that loss last week against Tennessee. Matt, speaking of losses, Clemson loses in their season opener.
Another massive favorite. They’re number eight in the country still. They get Troy ACC Network 3:30 Eastern. Overall,
just big picture on Clemson. Did you come away disappointed with that performance? What jumped out to you
about their 17-10 loss to LSU? You know, Tim, we’re not going to be right about everything we say in the
preseason, and hopefully you’re not going to be wrong about everything you say. I was I was wrong on the Arch
Manning hype, but I was right when I said I thought Clemson was being overhyped. There was a lot of people talking about Clemson national
championship. Kade Clubnick Heisman. I just, you know, every time the Tigers, Clemson Tigers stepped up in class last
year, they got to hand it to him and they were 0 and three against the SEC. And I talked about that last week on the
podcast. Maybe it’s more about LSU being that much better. You know, maybe LSU is
just so much improved defensively and LSU is the real deal. But yes, I was disappointed in Clemson and I’m glad I
did not buy into that Clemson preseason hype. Yeah, I want to give a shout out to our
our friend Jimmy. He came on the tailgate show, which you can hear every Saturday at 9:00 am, and he said he
loved loved first half and full game under, and those were two very easy
winners. So, thank you to Jimmy on that one. Matt, you know, we saw maybe not to
this level, but we saw a a big correction from UNLV’s performance against Idaho State to their number
against Sam Houston. And my question heading into this particular game is, did the market go too crazy here? North
Carolina embarrassed themselves on Monday night and there were also a lot of national media members who
embarrassed themselves after they scored a touchdown on their opening drive. That’s true. They lose 48 to4 and now you’ve got a
short week to take on Charlotte. This number was as high as 21 in game I
believe during North Carolina TCU. It’s now sitting at 12 and a half or 13 and a
half. I’d be curious if this is a spot where North Carolina maybe the reaction
is too drastic and North Carolina goes out and beats an inferior Charlotte team
who by the way got their ass kicked against App State despite the betting public thinking they knew the result of
that one uh last uh last week. Yeah, that’s true. Uh that was uh that’s
a good call by you right there. I don’t know if it’s an overreaction. I think North Carolina looks pretty bad. I
really I felt from the start that this Bill Bich experiment was going to be a bust in Chapel Hill and Will Hill and I
had talked about this on some shows over the summer. How long is Bellich going to last at North Carolina? I said no more
two years tops and I’m not sure if he’s going to last beyond one year. Uh but I
think there’s a decent chance he’s going to last two years at the college game. It’s big adjustment. He got 70 new
players and uh he’s not out coaching people. I don’t care what you think of
Belich, you know, the most accomplished coach in NFL history. He was not out coaching people the last two years he
was in the NFL. He was 4 and3 when he was with the Patriots in his last season. When he didn’t have superior
talent, he didn’t look like a superior coach. And his, by the way, his last home game was against a bad Jets team
and he lost. That was his last game as Patriots coach. So, he has not been working any miracles on the sideline for
a while uh since Tom Brady left Foxboro and he hasn’t had the better talent. Uh
Will asked me last week during the second half when TCU was embarrassing
Bellich, what’s the adjustment for this game against Charlotte and I said, “Well, I at DraftKings I saw a number of
20 hanging out there 20 or 21. I think it’s fair to adjust this all the way down to 14.” Now, the Charlotte team
looks pretty bad, too. So, I I I just think the market has made the proper adjustment here, and I’m more curious
just to watch this game and see if the Tarheelss look that much better this week. But I think the number adjustment
is right. And Tim, obviously, it’s got to be Max Johnson at quarterback, right?
Yes, 100%. Um, no doubt about it. It Max Johnson looks uh very much the uh the
prototypical pro quarterback. Great story, by the way, as as you mentioned it on prime time earlier this week. Just
gruesome leg injury. He’s battled through a number of spots. Uh I think he deserves I was never a big Gio Lopez
fan. I was surprised that he was the guy they ultimately hitched their wagon to. Look, you mentioned it, I think, too.
Ryan Brown at Purdue was at UNC. I mean, wouldn’t he be the best option? It’s
it’s it’s it’s a bit headscratching at some of the personnel decisions at least at the quarterback position uh to roll
with Gio Lopez, but I think it should be Max Johnson. I want to circle back real quickly. Uh Charlotte opened eight and a
half last week, closed only a three-point dog and they lost 34 to1.
So, uh the market movement on the 49ers was not correct a week ago. Matt, I
mentioned this game last week and I was kicking myself for not betting it. Tarlton State’s a very good FCS program
and they were catching 14 against Army and a number of us have bet under Army
win total of seven and a half and Tarlton State on six days rest coming across country beat Army and there’s a
belief sometimes that you can bet on these teams that lose to FCS teams. Maybe they’re a little bit on sale.
Well, the problem is they’re going to Kansas State and they just squeaked past an FCS team as well. So, this number’s
gotten up to 17. not gonna be a bet for me, but I’m curious to watch it. Um,
looking at Kansas State, is this a team that preseason Big 12 co-favorites with
Arizona State, Matt, is this a team that was uh a bit overrated? Chris Kimman, a coach that you and I both like, but boy,
you lose in a slopfest to Iowa State, and God, they were lucky to beat North Dakota.
Yeah, Chris Klyman’s been a bet on coach for me for a long time, but I have not bet on him in the first two games this
season. In fact, I bet against him, I had Iowa State. And last week, I was talking with big
some say the uh greatest gambler to ever swagger out of North Dakota. And uh Randy was still regretting that North
Dakota let that game get away last week against K State. And I think at one point he said on the live line, North
Dakota was like minus 250 to win the game. And that’s uh obviously the
Wildcats put together that game-winning drive and pulled it out. So I I think you have to have some legitimate
concerns here that Kate’s not what it was hyped up to be in the preseason. And
uh maybe you know in time Chris Kimman’s going to figure that thing out. But right now Kate looks pretty shaky.
You know, one other game I want to get to, Matt. Uh, last year I remember week two vividly because we did this podcast
and you gave out Northern Illinois plus 28. And the reason I bring that up,
Northern Illinois, of course, went on to pull off the upset of the college football season, beating Notre Dame, but
you’ve got a similar spot. Now, do I expect the boys from Rustin to go into
Death Valley and get this victory? I certainly do not. But this is another kind of hold your nose special this week
where Louisiana Tech, Matt, a team who was uh they won 24 to nothing but were
actually outgained by Southeast Louisiana last week uh in that 24 to
nothing win. Situationally, I played a situational spot last week and it absolutely burned me with South Dakota.
I’m going to take the 38 with Louisiana Tech and hold my nose. There was so much put into that LSU game against Clemson.
And next week they play Florida at home. Matt, this could be a sleepy spot spot for Brian Kelly’s squad. 283 31 point
Rustin catching 38. I don’t blame you. I see a 38 out there in the screen, but most books including
Circa are a little bit below that at 37. So this is one of those games for Murray’s Delicatessan, right? This is a
sandwich spot with LSU on the big game off the big game at Clemson and then with a Florida game up next and you
could uh you know see the Tigers falling asleep at the wheel a little bit in this game. It is their home opener and
there’s going to be a lot of hype around this team off last week’s win. Uh, we would be remiss if we did not mention
Brian Kelly’s ridiculous clock and game management blunder at the end of the first half last week at
Clemson, but LSU was able to overcome that with a dominant second half. I’m with you here. I think I would take the
38 or pass. I’m probably going to pass, but this is a game I could see LSU sleepwalking a little bit.
All right, Matt, before we get to the late night slate, we got four games to hit on before we get out of here and give you your best bet recap. Just a
reminder, our good friends at Rainbow AOthenics, as you can uh check out the hat. I rock it all the time here. Uh one
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proud sponsor of the Vsson College Football Betting Podcast. We’ll get to the Hawaii game here in just a moment,
Matt, but a game in our backyard. We’ve got UNLV and UCLA. This game on CBS
Sports Network, 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 p. p.m. Pacific time. UCLA anywhere from
a 2 and a half to threepoint favorite against UNLV. You saw this UCLA team up
close and personal. Boy, did they get their ass kicked by Utah. Yeah, I like I said, I was thoroughly
unimpressed with everything I saw with UCLA last week. Offensive line is pedestrian. uh so are the skill
position. You don’t have many playmakers at running back or receiver or tight end for that matter. Nico doesn’t appear to
be anything special at quarterback. And um on defense, I counted uh somewhere
around 40 to 50 missed tackles by UCLA last week. Just very poor performance at
the Rose Bowl. The announced attendance, by the way, I was there Saturday night and it was announced a crowd of like
35,500 actual people in the stadium. I read later was around 27,000 which is crazy
uh in a venue like the Rose Bowl and Utah brought a lot of those fans. Utah also dominated the game on the field
30-4 in first downs 492 to 220 in total yards and 37 1/2 minutes time of
possession. Uh Nico 11 for 22 passing. I didn’t see anything that stood out uh
from the UCLA perspective, Tim. And what do we make of UNLV right now? Who knows?
We’re guessing a little bit here because the Rebels had to uh come back to beat Idaho State. They went on the road and
beat Whitney Houston a week ago. Not really an impressive early season schedule here for UNLV. I do think the
the Rebels coaching staff is a little bit better. Dan Mullen and his coaches, I give them the check mark here. Uh when
you’re looking at edges on the Jimmy the Greek chalkboard, uh I’m going to go sir can move this number to three. I’m
taking UNLV plus three here. Like I said, guessing a little bit, but watching UCLA up close, I think this
Bruins team could be pretty bad. I’m not not impressed with the coaching staff. And you know what, Anthony Kandra, the
transfer from Virginia, has played okay for the Rebels at quarterback uh so far. And you got Jet Thomas, who’s a
playmaker at running back. I think UNLV should win this game. I’m not going to go crazy with this. Um but I do like the
Rebels as home dogs here catching three. A lot of two and a halfs out there. So,
if you see that three, make sure to scoop it. We’ve seen a couple of spots. You know, we talked about Baylor SMU. I
still want the three. Mississippi State and Arizona State. I still want the seven. We We’ve seen a big move in this
Matt uh game. And let’s go to the CW late night. 10:15 Eastern up at the
Paloo. We got San Diego State taking on Washington State. And right now, you’re
getting the worst of the number. So, when you record this show on a Thursday, that’s always a tricky uh part to it.
But they played Stonybrook. I get it. It was uh you know, the Seaw Wolves were
were out of their element traveling across country from Long Island to take on San Diego State. But Washington State
also played an FCS team, albeit a better one in Idaho. But that’s an Idaho program that their coaches and their
players are mostly down in New Mexico. and Washington State was was wildly underwhelming in that game. Now, once
again, you don’t want to play into too much of an overreaction, and maybe I’m getting caught up in it, but I was
impressed by what I saw from Shawn Lewis’s defense, believe it or not. This is an offensive-minded head coach, Matt,
but they bring back 11 starters on defense. Uh they have a Michigan transfer quarterback, Jaden Dangle, who
I think is pretty raw, but can run a little bit. They’ve got Bird Emanuel Jr., very uh elusive uh backup
quarterback that they’ll bring in and have him run around a bit. I think San Diego State is a little bit underrated
here. The market agrees this went from like four and a half down to one and a half. So I’m getting the worst of it,
but I think San Diego State wins this game. So I’ll for the purpose of the podcast, I’ll do one and a half here,
Matt. But I’ll be on San Diego State money line late night on the CW. All
right. Lastly, Matt, we got to talk the Hawaii game. And our Hawaii game all year long is going to be brought to you
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who helped us get out to Hawaii earlier this year. Well, Matt,
I would say pretty disappointing to see Micah Alah play last week for the
Rainbow Warriors and the market is telling us that he will not be playing here against Sam Houston uh in a
midnight Eastern game. This will be uh you’ll be able to watch it for free. our good friend uh Canoa Ley will be on the
broadcast there. The Mountain West app is how you can get it uh for free this year, Matt. But I’ll I’ll toss you first
here because it looks like it will be the backup. Nothing official. I think Timmy Chang said it is a game time
decision uh for Hawaii and Micah Alah, but he had a boot on his foot Tuesday.
He did not practice on Wednesday. Certainly doesn’t seem like Micah Alahada will be playing in this game in
a very important spot for Hawaii here starting a three-game home stand with Sam Houston, Portland State, and then
Fresno State. Yeah. Uh, hate to criticize our friend Timmy Chang, the Hawaii coach, uh, but
you and I talked about this last week and I thought he should have sat Micah Ahado out against Arizona uh, multiple
times on different VON shows last week. I said Al Ahado or not, Hawaii’s
probably going to get blown out in this game. They put Rainbow Warriors put so much into that opener against Stanford.
And then it’s a tough scheduling spot going on the road to Tucson the next week. Uh I thought it was pretty obvious
Hawaii was going to get blown out by Arizona last week. And I thought also it was a mistake from Tim Timmy Chang. I know the Micah Alahad is a tough kid. He
wants to get out there and play. He’s going to try to talk his way onto the field and the, you know, coach is a former quarterback and he wants his he
understands he’s a competitor. Okay, he talked him into it. He let him play. He should not have let him play. I thought
he the entire time I thought he should have set him out on that bad right foot. The important thing here is you’re
probably not going to beat Arizona anyway. That was a two touchdown number when you’re going to Tucson. It was bet
up to 17 and a half, dropped to 16 and a half at game time. you’re probably not going to win that
game anyway. You have to make sure you win your next three home games. You have to make sure Alejad is healthy for those
games. And now here you sit where he’s doubtful. We call it doubtful actually
against Sam Houston on Saturday night. You’ve got to win this game now. He’s six and a half point home favorite. And
I think Hawaii’s in trouble here if you got to play the backup quarterback, Tim. So, uh, might look under an underdog,
but we got to monitor this over the weekend and see if Micah Alahadoo is going to try to start at quarterback for
Hawaii. You know how tough he is. He’s going to try to talk his way onto the field again this week. Uh, but how
effective is he going to be if he does play, but if he doesn’t, I think, uh,
Hawaii might be life or death to win this game. Yeah. And look, Sam Houston, uh, they’ve
got their own quarterback questions as well. Their depth chart lists Watson and uh I think it’s Mature as an or. So,
we’ll see what Phil Longo decides to do there. Both these teams have played two games, so there’s no rest advantage. But
um yeah, Mike Alahado, like you said, he battled it out. Uh he said postgame to
our friends at Hawaii Sports Radio there. They put it on social media that, you know, he he told Coach Tang he could
go and he let him go. But both have kind of shown regret this week. So for me, Matt, uh I do have a win total over five
and a half for Hawaii. So this is a little bit of a try to middle here. I’m going to split my unit. I’m going to
take Sam Houston plus seven and I’m going to take under 48 and a half. So I
think this is going to be a grinder and they got to avoid the turnovers. Luke Weaver, you mentioned he’s the backup.
If Alado can’t go, he would start uh turnovers galore last week against Arizona maybe pressing a little bit too
much. So, I would anticipate if it is the backup that this is more of a conservative game plan with uh with Luke
Weaver in there. Hawaii went minus5 in the turnover margin just a week ago. All
right, Matt, we’ve uh we’ve run the board here. We’ve given out our best bets. So, let’s uh wrap up like we like
to do. Let’s make this nice and neat and let every know what we’re betting here in week two.
Best bets recap. All right, Matt, you lead us off with your best bet recap.
All right, the first two bets I uh talked about on VSON this week, Duke plus three and Mississippi State plus
seven. Now, for this podcast, I’m taking Mississippi State plus 6 and a half because the sevens have disappeared. So,
Duke and Mississippi State as home dogs going Vandy Diego Pavia plus one and a
half or we’ll say plus one. Uh Vandy plus one at Virginia Tech. The big game
of the weekend. I’m gonna ride with Brent Venibals here and bet against the freshman quarterback in his first start
on the road. We’re going to Oklahoma minus five against Michigan. And then uh Saturday night in Vegas circuit had a
three on this. I think it just dropped to two and a half. But anyway, I sent the play in at UNLB plus three and
that’s how I bet it. And you buy that point if you want to where the three might pop up again Saturday. But
guessing a little bit here uh that the Bruins are as bad as they looked on Saturday night against Utah at the Rose
Bowl. I’m going to go UNLV plus three at Allegiance Stadium. I don’t have a lot of plays this week. I was three and four
on this podcast last week. I got five best bets here right now.
All right, Matt, we’ll run through mine here to close it out. A couple common plays and a bunch of noon plays, which
terrifies me. Duke plus three against Illinois. Iowa plus three and a half.
Hopefully that’s not a trap uh like the Oregon State game was last week. That was a a nightmare as Cal came out and
just manhandled the Beavers and I felt like it was. But we’ll see if Iowa can ugly this up in the Sihawk game. For the
grading purposes, Baylor plus two and a half. Hoping this gets to three. I probably will buy to three, but for
grading purposes, we’ll go Baylor plus 2 and a half as they take on SMU. I’m with you. Let’s hit those cowbells hard on
Saturday night in Stark Vegas. Mississippi State plus 6 and a half. Hoping to get the seven back. Probably
will buy a seven. Hold your nose special sandwich spot of the week. Louisiana Tech plus 38. San Diego State plus one a
half. And then a split unit play. Matt Late night because of the uncertainty with Micah Alah the quarterback for
Hawaii. We’ll go Sam Houston plus 7 half unit and under 48 and a half in Sam
Houston Hawaii half unit as well. All right, that’s going to do it for this
week on the podcast. As a reminder, three episodes each and every week. The
numbers have been amazing, Matt, as we have climbed up the charts. Last week in the top 75 of the iTunes chart, which is
pretty cool to see, and hopefully we can keep that momentum going. Continue to give us those five-star reviews. It
helps us out as we continue to try to build this. We’ll be back early next week with an episode with Adam Burke,
then Brett Seiania and Wes Reynolds Midweek, and Matt and myself every Thursday here on this podcast. Thanks to
Ryan Hunter and Wyatt, our producer of this pod. And you can also check this out lastly on YouTube, YouTube.comlive,
if you want to watch the podcast with graphics and all of that fun stuff as well. For Matt, I’m Tim. Let’s have
ourselves a winning week. This is the VSIN college football betting podcast. [Music]
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