A Numbers Game LIVE – College Football Betting Picks and Insights (09-16-25)

Major Takeaways

• Bettors should watch underdog matchups this weekend, as several spreads look vulnerable to late-game swings.

• Injury reports and quarterback updates remain critical to locking in the best betting value.

• Expert predictions lean toward sharp money targeting totals rather than sides in marquee games.

A Numbers Game LIVE – College Football Betting Picks and Insights (09-16-25)

This is VSIN the sports betting network the numbers told the story they always do it’s one of those idiots who believe in analytics this is a numbers game with gil alexander gone VSIN good tuesday morning to you there’s a numbers game at VSIN the sports betting network VSIN.com game plus iheart radio youtube tv sirius xm channel 158 where does it end
 We don’t care how you take us in. We just appreciate that you do. Let’s go, Alexander. That’s Kelly Biddle and my little buddy, everybody, alongside. Heyo. Down to what weight now? 224. Ooh, a little bounce upwards. Little tick up. Little tick up, Gil. Little tick up. Little tick up. Uh-oh. Trying to get to 216 for the full 100 down. Yeah.
 The weight loss journey continues. On the show today, Drew Dinsick will join us from the Deep Dive and Bet the Edge podcast, talk National Football League with us. Maybe he’s playing some tennis in Seoul, Korea. I know I did over the weekend, though I didn’t have anything overnight this past evening. We’ll see if Drew does. Baseball, Mark Borchardt, Paul Spohr, we’re doing them both. We’re doing them both.
Jeff Erickson, senior editor of Roto-Wire, founder of Roto-Wire, talking NFL player props with us as well. Tyler Shoemaker, WNBA playoffs, game twos tonight. You say game twos or games two? What do you say? I have this argument all the time. I hate when people say games two. Unfortunately, I think it’s both of them are actually accurate. You can use them interchangeably, but yeah, who says games twos? Who says that?
 Ron Flatter says that. It’s like when people would try to say, like, the Miami Heat is instead of the Miami Heat are. You’re like, come on, man. I know that’s right. Kills me. The lady’s screaming downstairs. She’s like, that’s right. Write it that way. Stop properly conjugating that noun or whatever we’re doing with the verb there.
Okay, a little later on as well, we will talk, actually not later on, but this hour, we will start with Survivor Talk week three, yes. Let’s go. By popular demand, people seem to enjoy that breakdown last week. Here are the big favorites, the teams that I am not considering playing. Here are the teams I am considering playing.
 all six through into week three. And by the way, Survivor stats, just to lay that out before we get there, and we’ll get to the actual numbers a little later on, but still less than 10% out, even after last night, after week two in the National Football League. Speaking of last night. I’m actually surprised that ticked up a little bit, right? We have a couple entries in? Oh yeah, because 100 plus people had the Texans last night. Wow. Yeah.
 Okay. Yeah. I’m a little shocked by that. I mean, you know, it’s not a tremendous amount, but it’s still not a negligible amount. It’s not like the one that got knocked out with the Raiders last night. Right. As far as those two games last night, I went into yesterday saying, you know, you couldn’t have picked four teams I have less of a feeling for. Well, I got a feeling. I thought we’ll do NFL power rankings later too. Got a feeling for the winning teams last night now. That’s for sure. I still don’t know what I’m looking at with the Texans and the Raiders, in case you missed it. In what was kind of a –
 Uh, you don’t want to complain because we wait all year for football, and I certainly don’t want to be that guy. It’s kind of a ho-hum doubleheader last night as it turned out. Tampa Bay at Houston was interesting. Tampa Bay goes to 2-0. Houston goes to 0-2. Tampa Bay with the late-game heroics again for the second straight week. Remember, they did it against Atlanta in Week 1, and Baker Mayfield did his thang again here at the end of this one against the Texans. This was a game where the first four drives resulted in scores,
 Tampa up 14-10, and you’re like, well, this game’s going to soar over, right? Oh, not so much. Not so much. Then there wasn’t any scoring again until the fourth quarter. It was pretty incredible. It was a punt fest. The only times teams got close to scoring, Tampa Bay, McLaughlin doinked a 38-yard field goal try off the right upright late third quarter. Yeah.
 And then the ensuing drive, Houston matriculated it down the field, got it to second and goal at the one. You remember this sequence. Chubb stuffed at the one.
: um excuse me chub stuff for no gain on second pardon me incomplete intended for collins right far corner of the end zone on third and then incomplete intended for collins the close the left far corner of the end zone left near corner of the end zone deep corner i should say on fourth two horrible plays where the ball had absolutely no chance of getting it in nico collins hands on either third or fourth down so it remained 14 to 10 all the way into the uh
 into the fourth quarter where, you know, on a short field, Houston ended up getting the ball at the Tampa Bay 35 after a punt was blocked by Jacob Johnson. And they still couldn’t do anything, three and out, after Stroud threw it right to Labonte David, by the way, and he dropped it. So they got a fair baron 53-yard field goal at that point. So it was 14-13 Houston. Houston’s done nothing all game.
 Then Tampa has a three and out, and they have to punt. And this really, the play of the game could have been this one, which is Tampa punts it away up a point. We’re talking late fourth quarter now. And Jalen Knoll of the Texans goes 50 yards. But there’s a flag on the field. Of course. Flag on the field because I’ll get the license plates on here. Tremont Smith blocked Josh Downs in the back right behind Knoll.
 and right where he was. And Dare Ogunbowale blocked Ryan Miller behind the back probably later in that return. Not Scotty Miller. No, not Scotty Miller, though, as you said, they might as well be the same person. Kelly texts me at night. Ryan Miller, Scotty Miller, doesn’t really matter.
 Mike Miller, all the same. Anyway, they picked up the flag. And I don’t really know why. The official consultant, the officiating consultant, I always forget who the officiating consultant was. Was it Terry McCauley or somebody else? I don’t know. Anyway, they’re like, oh, yeah, that’s proper that they picked up those flags. And Troy Aikman appropriately right at that moment goes, I don’t know. I’ve seen a lot worse called than that. A lot less called than that. Yeah.
So Houston just gets this unbelievable break where they pick up the flags. They just sort of, you know, brushed it aside. And then Tampa Bay, excuse me, Houston, for the one time, they set up at the Tampa Bay 26, second play, Chubb in for 25, and all of a sudden Houston is winning this game 19-14, two-point conversion no good. Tampa Bay takes over at their own 20 with 2.04 left, now needing a touchdown. All their timeouts and the two-minute warning.
 It’s 3rd and 10 at their own 32. Baker off of Ibuka’s hands downfield. And 4th and 10, right? It’s going to be the last play of the game. Well, he got the three timeouts, so maybe not the last play. Baker escapes for 15 yards. Two plays later, Baker to Irving for 22. Great run after the catch. Down to the Houston 23 with 42 seconds left. Remember, Kelly, they had plenty of timeouts here. To Irving for 5. 34 seconds left. Goes out of bounds. To Evans for 11 down to the 7. First and goal clock. Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick. Not using any of their timeouts.
 They get it to Otten for five to the two with nine seconds left. Never use the timeout here. Second and goal at the two. White in. Touchdown. Six seconds left. Two-point conversion fails. Got to be careful about that two-point conversion. You don’t want the two-point return. That would have been a disaster. And nothing happens on the ensuing kickoff. So Tampa Bay with the dramatics. Baker Mayfield does it again. And…
People had a little trouble with the clock management at the end with Tampa Bay. That’s why I bring it up. And I agree that they probably optimally would have had a few more seconds left. They probably should have made sure that if it didn’t work out on second down, that they could have had two more opportunities the way they did it. They probably only had the second and the third down with nine seconds left, maybe. Maybe.
 But I would say this in response to that, which is you don’t want that many more seconds left on the clock. Because how many times have we seen now in the NFL? You only need 20 seconds and a team will matriculate to field goal range. I mean, especially nowadays. I mean, where it feels like every one of these kickoffs is starting at. And if you have a Brandon Aubrey on your team, maybe you need five yards. So we can quibble about that, but I don’t think it was the most egregious. I mean, some people think it was perfectly played.
 And as far as the second game… I think it was near perfectly played, actually. Maybe with the exception of a few seconds, but that’s it. You’re right. It might have cost them it down, and that would not have been ideal if it got to that point, but… Not the worst gaffe in the world. Second game, even more ho-hum than that one. Chargers won this 20-9 here at Allegiant against Vegas. If there were…
I think Todd wished I’d said this after the game. He said, if there were eight more quarters, the Raiders still couldn’t have caught them. No, it was just, just, just, you know, a game where it didn’t look like Gino was on. He looked off the whole game. They were, when there weren’t picks that were near picks, uh,
 Um, in fact, I think this is one, this is one of about seven games. I feel like we’ve already had this year, Gil, where it’s like, this is, this is a misleading score. This is a much bigger blowout than 20 to nine. The only thing I want to point out here is that, uh, Jim Harbaugh did, did do some weird stuff on fourth down. Um, it was 17 to six.
 this is when I want to get the exact time right. So 17 to six in the third quarter, the Chargers had a fourth and two at the Raiders 30. Herbert goes to Allen for 25 to the five. The Raiders make a stand. And on fourth and goal, up 11, you can pin the Raiders back there if you don’t get this. Jim Harbaugh goes, yeah, we’ll take the Cameron Dicker 25-yard field goal to make it 20 to six, right? Chip shot. Then later, after it got cut to 20 to  The second half was the Chargers used the first 730 of the third quarter, and then the Raiders had an 18-play drive of 11 minutes and 15 seconds that resulted in a Carlson 37-yard field goal. It was just comical, right, to cut it to 20-9. And at that point, right, Herbert and Darius Davis botched that exchange on fourth and one at midfield. Remember, he did the chip shot Cameron Dicker field goal when conservative.
 At fourth and one at midfield, you’re up 11. The Raiders really can’t do anything. They’re not scaring you at all. Harbaugh decides to go for it. And they botch the, they botch a handoff and the Raiders end up with the ball. Raiders couldn’t do anything with it, by the way, because Gino was picked off on a Karen by Dante Jackson. And then the next time the Raiders had the ball, uh,
 Geno was sacked on fourth down. And then the following time, when the Raiders had the ball after another, Chargers non-scoring drive, Geno on fourth down just threw it out of bounds. Yeah. And you’re just like, well, that’s a fitting end to this game. I’m okay with that fourth down by the Chargers. Some of these are – I feel like a lot of that gets –
 gets built up into the, the Harbaugh Pete Carroll feud or what? I don’t, I don’t even know how we’re trying to make this like a rivalry again, but I just don’t really care. But like in that situation, I kind of like, okay, you get it. You’re basically, the game’s basically over, right? You’re running, you’re running clock. That that’s kind of the end of things. I’m okay with it there. You’re up 11. Like, I don’t really know. It’s going to backfire too much. But the issue is the inconsistency. The issue is if you’re going to kick a 20 yard field goal and not try to punch it in there,
then why are you going for it? I can’t argue on that. I mean, that’s all I’m saying. Anyway, I’ll just say this. Chargers really good. Uh, Tampa Bay got to start thinking of them in a different tier, I think. But do you have any feel for either of the Raiders or the Texans at this point, especially the Texans? I want to talk more about, I think I want to talk about all four of these teams more on the other side. Cause I think all of them are interesting. Um,
 the Texans though they’re the most perplexing of the bunch it’s just the offensive line problems and it’s just so tough when you knew coming into the year that was going to be an issue you know how you talk about dead over teams dead under they might be the dead under team yeah more on that and the quarterback carousel next
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: Right now, you can sign up for as little as $9.99 to access all the Beeson Pro articles. Just head to Beeson.com slash subscribe to sign up today. Gil Alexander, Kelly Bidlin, producer number nine, so much more than a producer. Before we get into the quarterback carousel that took place yesterday, you wanted to say something about these four teams last night that you didn’t get to? Well, yeah. Just, I mean, kind of running through each one of them. I mean, the Bucs, Texans. So, Texans, I think we hit on it. Like, the defense is great. Yeah.
: I, Nico Collins is awesome. They’re clearly forcing the ball to him as much as they can, but like between the offensive line, they can’t get a run game going. Even when Nick Chubb hit open field last night, you’re like Nick Chubb’s running like a 5-3-40 these days. Like it is, there’s not much there. I think they got major offensive problems there.
 This AFC South is probably more open than I thought it was heading into the season. The Bucs just continue to impress, man. Baker Mayfield is so… He’s awesome. He’s awesome. He’s awesome to watch. You got Mike Evans. That defense has played…
 Well enough, I guess so far, they were one of the defenses I was concerned about heading into the season, but that offense has got firepower. And then the other game, like the Raiders are disaster. I think when we talk like offensive rookie of the year, this was always my concern with Ashton Gentry. It’s just, are they going to be good enough that he can carry the ball enough times to get enough yards? I said it before the draft. Are the Raiders good enough to make a running back the sixth pick in the draft and are running backs. Listen, he may turn out to be great,
: But unless you’re Saquon or Derrick Henry…
: They’re kind of all interchangeable at a certain point. And we’ll find out if Jenty is one of the interchangeables. I don’t want to say anybody sat here and said they were, he was Saquon Barkley, but oh boy, we heard a lot of, you just can’t pass up on a generational talent like that. We heard a lot of that before the draft. My line was, I love him more than, I love him as much as anybody in college. Had a bet on him in the Heisman. Have friends in Boise, so I was locked into Ashton Jenty. But at no point did I watch him in college and be like, oh.
 going to be a phenomenal pro. Right. We’ll see. We’ll see. And then the Chargers, lastly, man, I think like it’s, I think you have to upgrade, at least for me, I have to upgrade Chargers and Bucs from both where they were at
 I still have a longer term belief in the Bucs than the Chargers. Like, each game so far, there’s like, like the Chargers can’t run the ball. What’s up with that? You know, like that’s been a problem so far this season. Don’t really try that much. It doesn’t feel like it. There’s also that going on. There’s another one, by the way. They drafted Omari and Hampton in the first round and don’t use them all that much.
 Feels like. Yeah, you had Herbert led the team in rushing last night. 9 for 31. Najee Harris 8 for 28. And Hampton 8 for 24. Right. So, I mean, again, running backs as a position is a funny thing to draft first round these days. Yeah. And that division’s tough. I just, I can’t. We’re going to get to our power rankings later. I just, I can’t get to Chargers clear-cut favorite in the AFC West. And it makes sense to me.
 Yeah, but with each passing week, it’s kind of feeling that way more and more than it ever has. So when we went to three hours, I don’t know if you guys know this. We do three hours here on the Numbers of Game. Kelly, are you aware of that? We do three hours now. I’m aware of that. When we used to do two hours, we used to get off air at noon Eastern, 9 a.m. Pacific. And what we were told, this is my second Ron Flatter reference of the day already. Ron, who was our adult supervision here at VEASAN for many years, said,
: used to say, well, Gil, do you know why you guys never get the breaking news? And he said it like that, by the way, like Les Nesman from WKRP. I was like, no, Ron, why? And he said, because the news cycle begins at noon Eastern. And I’m like, oh, okay, that makes sense. So we thought we’d get an extra hour. We’d have the news come down while we’re on the air. No, yesterday, right as we got off air, right? They wait an hour. And sure enough, then we find out a couple bits of information, one of which is, hey, remember that hit –
that Jaden Daniels took late in that Packers game. And I remember texting the group exchange at that point, but I hope he’s not more hurt than he’s letting on, right? He got his knee wrenched. Turns out he’s got a knee sprain day to day. Commander still not letting us know if Jaden Daniels is going to play this Sunday against the Raiders or not. If not, it will be Marcus Mariota.
 That’s the Tariko pronunciation, Mariotta, the Hawaiian pronunciation. And then we find out that, hey, with the Vikings, that J.J. McCarthy woke up with a bunch of soreness. Turns out he has a high ankle sprain, and he is out, out for the Vikings-Bengals game this weekend. So Wentz, Carson Wentz is in. Wentz, Browning, Vikings, Bengals, CBS. Yes.
 Catch the fever. Get your tickets now. So anyway, and by the way, we already know Justin Fields has a concussion protocol. So there’s four teams now where we could have backup quarterbacks playing. Let’s, without doing the thing that everybody does where, you know, some of these guys, for whatever reason, you say their names and it elicits laughter. Right? Carson wants, Carson, right? Marcus Mario, Marcus Mario, Marcus Mario. Yeah.
 Let’s just actually do the responsible thing and go through just some numbers. So as far as the Vikings-Bengals game this weekend, again, CBS.
: And Jake Browning, as we mentioned yesterday, who we correctly said, the Bengals aren’t bringing in anybody of note. They’re going with Jake Browning. And by the way, they did bring up Sean Clifford. They signed Sean Clifford and then Mike White. Mike White to the practice squad, was it? Yeah, two additions today, both to the practice squad, yes. But it will be Jake Browning. So Jake Browning, once again, last year.
 Excuse me, not last year. Two years ago, the most action he saw, remember, was the last Joe Burrow major injury. Two years ago, he went four and three as a starter, 12 touchdowns, seven picks, and a 60.8 QBR, which Joe Burrow’s only eclipsed once in his career.
 Should be pointed out. Last week, Jake Browning, in relief of Burrow, 21 of 32 for 241 against the Broncos, that vaunted Broncos defense, two touchdowns, three picks. Not great, not terrible either. And by the way, that long stretch that he played in 2023 was pretty darn solid. Carson Wentz, who he’ll be taking on later,
 Bengals will be taking on the Vikings, but quarterback versus quarterback. Carson Wentz, who elicits laughter these days. Well, okay, let’s think about the last time we saw Carson Wentz. There was the final game of the season for the Chiefs last year. Remember, they were 15-1, so this game didn’t matter at all. He wasn’t good at Denver. 10 of 17 for 98, and he was sacked four times. No touchdowns, no picks. A 19.1 QBR. That’s scored out of 100.
 Uh, however, the year before that similar situation, because it was the last game of the year, but a game of major consequence to the Rams is.
 He ended up helming the game that clinched, clinched the sixth seed for the LA Rams. He was 17 of 24 against the Niners for 163 yards, two touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked twice, had a touchdown on the ground as well. So again, not necessarily against the best of the Niners, but he comported himself well. The last time he’s had an actual long stretch where he started games was the year before that. So not Kansas City last year, not the Rams the year before, but with Washington.
 One of these ridiculous Daniel Snyder signings, right? 172 for 276 for 1,755 yards. That’s half a season basically played. Eight games, I believe it was. 11 touchdowns against nine picks, but he took 26 sacks. That’s his bugaboo, right? 34.4 QBR again, scored out of 100. So no one’s saying Carson Wentz is great, but maybe not as horrific as you might remember him post the post-injury part of his career.
 100%. And can we talk about this with the line movement of this game? So we hit on this yesterday because we knew about Browning yesterday when we were sitting here. And I took the Bengals anyway, plus the points before we knew this. So look at headline last week, Cincinnati one-and-a-half point favorites. Okay? You betted at what? Four? Four-and-a-half? Four-and-a-half. Four-and-a-half. So we’re on air yesterday. Four-and-a-half or three-and-a-half. I can’t even remember anymore. Let me look. I think— Oh, okay. It was moving while we were on air back to back towards that since three and a half, three and a half. But it was we saw force. We saw force when we were on the air. So for I was jealous of you by the time I think I got home. That was basically it was basically three in this. And then the Wednesday news comes down. But this goes this goes to three now. I don’t. And there’s there’s even one, two and a half out there over at FanDuel and Boyd.
 I heard someone else say this yesterday, and I don’t remember who it was. Completely agree, though. Is there that big of a difference right now between J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz? Like, do we know that for sure? I don’t think so. Yeah, me either. Yeah. So I guess my point is, I feel like you got the best of it with the Bengals, and now the line might have moved too far back against the Vikings. The other two, let’s say we don’t know that Jaden Daniels isn’t playing yet for Washington. That’s not confirmed yet from Dan Quinn and company. But if it is Marcus Mariota…
Marks Mariotta last year got into two games.
Daniels had a rib injury versus Carolina. Mariota came in 18 of 23 for 205, two touchdowns, no picks. And the other one where Daniels had some leg soreness last game of the year at Dallas, 15 of 18 for 161, two touchdowns, no picks, five carries for 56 yards and a touchdown. Mariota was great. He was awesome in that game, yeah. He was great in both of them. So he’s, listen, over a long haul, is he as good as Jaden Daniels? Of course not. Jaden Daniels might be generational for all we know. But Marcus Mariota…
 The last we saw him, he was nothing short of awesome. Well, and it’s one of those, you don’t… I mean, I guess both these quarterbacks were about to talk about the same thing. You don’t have to mix up the offenses, right? Like, it’s the same player types enough that they can run the same thing. Last thing here, Terod Taylor, if he ends up playing because Justin Fields is in protocol…
 concussion protocol jets taking on the bucks at Tampa. He’s the hardest one to read because this dude has been in the league for 15 years. Now this is 15th year. He’s only played three full seasons. That was with Buffalo back between 2015 to 2017. Last we saw him in any kind of long stretch 2023 when he’s with the giants, you know, he’s kind of middling. He had a 48.6 QBR.
: Five touchdowns, three picks. And then before that, it was 2021 when he was with the Texans. He played six games. He also had a 46.4 QBR. So he’s like as middling as you possibly can get. He does good things. He does bad things. He doesn’t kill you with turnovers. He’s a credible backup quarterback. Coming back with baseball, Mark Borchardt next.
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 playbrocco.com that’s B-R-A-C-C-O we get tweets at beating the book always appreciate the feedback from everybody this is from Forrest Lehman JVT said
: just said, are the Colts the third best team in the AFC? Out loud. Might have heard an Angels World Series Clippers WNBA title parlay. Also, good thing he’s objective. Welfare check immediately, please. Well, at least he was asking. Did he say that they were the third best team? It sounds like he was asking. Jesse Welch. We have to be getting some Paul Carr this week because I’m super bummed that the Ringer put a stop to their soccer pod. Oh, no. He says, I need some more chain moving. We’ll get Paul on this week.
The numbers guys, those games almost woke me up last night. Also got some pretty good CLV on the Bengals and Falcons at DraftKings for week three. Question, if I do this every week, will this practice get a square like me limited? If you’re betting a lot of money and you keep getting ahead of the CLV, courtesy of guessing lines, then maybe. So be careful. Oh, Michael Burns, Nuff said, he said, we were just talking about the running backs, Amarian Hampton and Ashton Gentry. And I was just saying, you know, drafting running backs in the first round is a weird thing, but…
: You drafted Omari and Hampton, you’re not even using him that much. And Ashton Gentry remains to be seen if he’s not interchangeable with everybody else. Our preseason thoughts aside, Matt Brown, our own Matt Brown, texted last night. I didn’t see this. Both of these teams have gone for it on 4th and 1 tonight, talking about the Raiders and Chargers, and not had their running back that they spent a first-round pick on out there to try and convert, said 4th and 1. Mark Bono lets me in on also a Carson Wentz thing from Ari Mayrop. Carson Wentz will start, but he starts with the Vikings this weekend.
 This will be his start for his sixth team in six seasons, which is something no quarterback in NFL history has ever done. Eagles 2020, Colts 2021, Commanders 2022, Rams 2023, Chiefs 2024, Vikings 2025.
 It’s amazing. And let me just say this also, because we were talking about this a little off the air. Carson Wentz and RG3 have something in common. Both of the names spark like a guffaw, like a laugh, like a ha, from some people with football. Think how unfair it is to both of those guys. Carson Wentz was like MVP caliber, then blew out his knee. Mm-hmm.
 didn’t get to win that Super Bowl, right? Nick Foles did. Maybe they don’t win it with Carson Wentz. I don’t know. But it’s such a hard luck way to go about your career. RG3 Rookie of the Year blows out his name, and everybody mocks him after that, right? So it’s like, what could have been with both of those? You never know. All right. Mark Borcher joins us from an undisclosed location in the desert because there are less than two weeks left in the baseball season. We need some clarification here. Mark, of course, can be found at BaseWinner, BaseWinner.com. How you doing, Mark?
 I’m doing good, Gil. Like, I think that they’re trying to make more of the playoff race than actually is there. Unfortunately, I’d like to see the Diamondbacks get in. And you’d think, well, they’re only a game and a half back. But I think that the talent disparity, I think that Mets seems, to me, valuable. I think they’re minus 275. I think they should be like minus 400 to make it, but yeah.
 you know stranger things have happened this year this has been been kind of a wild year you know i i heard you talking about sorry to start to take over the conversation i heard you talk i heard you talking about cleveland uh yesterday and like they’re like my 24th ranked team this kills me
 Yeah, so I ran the simulations for the month, who’s going to win the month. And Philly’s right there now, 38% chance to win the month of September. But Cleveland’s 21%, even with that 24th ranking. And then Seattle, who I have, is 13%. But it’s just one of those things where you see that. And I hear you talking with Adam all the time about it. And I’m kind of on your side from a professional standpoint.
 probability standpoint. Well, what Mark’s referring to, for those who don’t know, is my favorite season win total before the season was Cleveland under 82.5%.
Adam Burke, Cleveland fan, went the other way. We have a dinner bet on it. And Cleveland with a fairly non-negligible negative run differential and now Mark Piling on by saying he has them as the 24th ranked team in all of Major League Baseball. These guys are 78 and 71 baseball, man. It is just so frustrating. And the other thing, too, is if you look, okay, their XFIP is league average, but their weighted runs created plus is 85, and I think that’s –
 Uh, that’s third worst in baseball. The only teams that are, that are worse than them for offensively. And that’s, that’s using weighted runs, creative plus what they’ve done so far. So they found a way to win without offense. The only teams worse than them, weighted runs, creative plus year to date is, are the Rockies and the Pirates skills. Oh, great. This is wonderful. This is wonderful. Yeah. Betting where you can set yourself up for success. And then the teams actually have to follow through on everything. Um,
 By the way, Mark referred to September wins. Can we do the September wins update, guys? And then we’ll throw on the odds to this. So Philadelphia is winning. For those who bet the Phillies, you are in the driver’s seat here halfway through the month of September. Well, more than halfway because there’s less than two weeks left, really. Phillies are 11-3. The aforementioned Guardians are 10-4. Then you got the Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, and Nats.
: Of course, the Orioles and Nats are in there, all with nine wins. Nationals are 9-5. The others are 9-4. So that’s where it stands. And in terms of the odds, you can actually bet these now still at DraftKings with a little less than two weeks left. Phillies are plus 110. If you like the Guardians or any of the other teams I mentioned, Guardians are plus 360 to have the most wins in the month of September, and then you see everybody else’s odds. Mariners plus 650. Blue Jays plus 950. The Nats…
two wins back are 20 to one as are the Orioles at 22 to one. Interesting. Okay. So blue Jays are going to win the East. They got a five game lead. Tiger’s going to win the guardians again, not clinched, but it looks that like that’s going to happen. Phillies clinch the East and the nationally brewers have already clinched the, the central not clinched, but they’re, they’re going to win the central. The only two divisions that are really up for grabs are,
 Mariners have a half game lead over the Astros in the AL West and a three and a half game lead over the Rangers in the AL West. The Dodgers still two games up on the Padres in the NL West. Do you see those changing at the top Mariners and Dodgers? I,
 I don’t. I have, but I do see a little bit of value with the Potters. I think that winning the division, they’re like plus 425, and I have them with a 30% chance, which is better than that. I think – let me just see what that is. Plus 233 is what they should be. So I think that there’s a little bit of value there. You know, the Mariners are –
 Astros race is interesting because I actually have it about 50, 50, a little bit edge to edge to the, to the Astros, but I’m really bullish on the, on the, on the Mariners moving forward. Yeah. Uh, they’re the third for, for me, they’re the, actually the second rank team. If you look at their components from bullpen starters and, and hitting and fielding as well, uh, they’re number two in, in baseball. Uh,
 Number one is these Yankees. I wouldn’t count the Yankees out yet. I know they’ve been really disappointing. I went out and talked last week and said how great that bullpen was, and then they just epically imploded against the Tigers two nights in a row. I think that they’re better than that.
that they’ve shown in a certain game. So what you’re saying is Yankees and Mariners for Pennant and World Series might have some value. I think they do. Just looking at the numbers, looking at the Sims, and I don’t think he’d be wrong just playing both of those teams. I think
 uh you know toronto’s been i mean what do they want like a million straight games and and you know interesting about toronto guild their fifth the payroll and this is this is uh surprising to me because i was looking at payroll today they’re number five in baseball so it goes like it goes like dodgers meds yankees phillies and then and then uh and then blue jays so interestingly enough the teams with that spend the most money are all up there in the
: in the playoffs. So Blue Jays have, Blue Jays have won five straight games. Of course, Mark Portridge said a million in a row for the Blue Jays. And then it seems like it. And then the wild card, which you alluded to Cleveland and Texas, both three games behind the Astros right now for the final wild card in the AL again, about 12 games left, give or take a game for everybody here at this point. And then in the NL,
I mean, it is a logjam. Mets, one and a half game lead over the Diamondbacks now, who beat the Giants yesterday. The Giants and Reds both two back. Obviously, tiebreakers matter. Giants are really three back, if you want to know the truth, based on tiebreaker. But you think the Mets stave off everybody, is what you said? I do. I have an 81% chance to do it. I mean, the bullpen’s good. The hitting’s good. It’s good.
 I don’t see as much as I’d like to see the Diamondbacks get them. I don’t think they’re going to do it. All right. What’d you land on today, Mark? Well, today’s an interesting card. Of course, the base winner parlay. What I’m going to do today is I’m going to go Pittsburgh first five. And I know there’s a buzz around Cade Horton, but I just think that you look at some of his advanced numbers, Gil, and that’s.
 I’m looking at Horton’s base winner ERA, and it’s actually below average, 4.32, and that’s strikeout percentage, walk percentage, ground ball rate, against Skeen’s at a 2.81. And so I think we just have a quality pitching advantage that first five. And then, of course, I’m going to go with the Yankees, Gil. I’d be happy to.
I like this Yankees team. They’re the best hitting team by the numbers. They’re the second best bullpen team by the numbers. And they’re going against a 25th bullpen and a 17th hitting team with the twins. And I think we actually get an edge. Schlittler’s been really good stuff, plus 95th percentile strikeout percentage, last 17 median, 95th percentile. I think Yankees maybe played on the run line as well and then put it in the second leg of the base when it
parlay. So first five Pittsburgh and Yankees full game. And that plays a plus one 73 today, Gil. All right. Pittsburgh, first five Yankees, full game parlay. Uh,
 any straights before you leave? One? No? I can give you. Let’s go with this Mariners team. I’ve got them priced closer to minus 180, and this is the third best hitting team in baseball. And Gilbert’s numbers still look really good. 90th percentile strikeout rate, BBK 0.17, and location plus 78 percentile. So let’s go with the Mariners. Mariners over the Royals. Mark Borchardt, everybody. Base winner. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it as always.
 Thanks, Gil. Take it easy. You too, my man. Survivor next week three numbers game faces. It’s betting network. As sports fans, we may cheer for different teams, but there’s one thing that we can all agree on. We want the game to be big.
And with three levels, 30 cabanas, a 143-foot screen, six clean pools, and endless cold drinks, it doesn’t get any bigger or any better than Stadium Swim in Las Vegas. All sports, all seasons. It’s more than a pool day. Stadium Swim. It’s the only thing like it in the world.
 Join the guru, John Hanson, at the intersection of prop betting and fantasy sports on Prop Points, only on VEASAN. And shout out to Elijah Moore as well. Oftentimes he’s Elijah less. Keep in mind, Sean Payton is evil for fantasy football. John and his guests will help you find the connection between the two and give you his expert advice on how to capitalize when a number is too good to pass up. Prop Points, weekdays at 1 p.m. Eastern on VEASAN, the sports betting network.
 A numbers game on V-CENT, the sports betting network. The season may have started, but you can still jump into the V-CENT Average Joe Contest, sponsored by Edge Boost. Each week you make seven picks, NFL or college, and the best score of the week wins $500. That is, unless you have an Edge Boost account already. Then it’s $1,000 every week. And if that’s not enough, there are quarterly prizes, too. Airfare to Las Vegas and a free two-night stay at Circa Resort. Your chance to be on a V-CENT show. You might even meet Kelly Bittlen. Hello. Hello.
free to play and you can enter anytime at vcin.com slash joe that should be a bullet point and you might get to meet Kelly Biddley three dollars for a signed picture is that what you charge you gotta bring the picture too are you like peace and love 25 Kelly Biddley that’s how we used to do it at KML peace and love 98 or something like that
 No, you won’t get anything like that from me. I want to say a couple things here. One, just the guessing lines thing from yesterday. Remember how last week, incredulous about the Bears line against the Lions, incredulous about the Vikings line against the Falcons. We got super CLV, those manifested in wins. Same thing about Pittsburgh. That did not manifest in a win, but –
 guessing lines the exercise proving itself once again well already yesterday i made the three bets on guessing lines right um the falcons which i bought down to three is now five in favor of the falcons on the road against the panthers the bangles and obviously there’s a quarterback deal here as well it was two and a half i got three and a half yesterday what’s the other one the titans plus three and a half where’s the titans are we ahead of that one as well already uh
 Um, let’s see. Why is it hiding? Three, three and a half. Three and a half. So same place for Titans. Um, yeah, three and a half still. Okay. So there you go. Um, but just promoting something from tomorrow. We got a question yesterday on Twitter. Forgive me. I forgot who, who the gentleman was who, who, who wanted to know about this. He noticed that I bought down to the three on the Falcons.
And he was like, hey, why do you do that? Drew, who’s coming up later, Drew Dinsick and Andy, they hate buying points. They say it’s bad. And I said, well, you know, I’m not really a buying points guy. I just kind of did it in the moment when I was on the show and I was making a bet. And he’s like, oh, I noticed that about you. You are not really a guy who buys. Why did you at that time? I was like, oh, I was just doing it midstream while we were doing a show, and I was punching the buttons. So tomorrow on the show, we’re going to have Elihu Feustel.
 Elihu Feustel, for those who don’t know, is an author of gambling books. He is, to me, the most egregious person not in the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame. He should be in the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame for all the stuff he’s done. I was reared on his newsletters at Pinnacle in the 90s when he ghost wrote as Simon Noble. He was just in seven on SBR, the forums answering everybody’s question. Anyway, tomorrow he will tell us, when is the proper time to buy points?
 Or to sell points. He’s going to tell us tomorrow. Yeah, I’m looking forward to that conversation. It’s literally like the Annie Hall, Woody Allen, if only, you know, pulling Marshall McLuhan from behind the curtain to tell the people in the line that were annoying him, I’ve heard everything you’ve said. You know nothing about my work. And Woody Allen looks at the screen and goes, if only life were like this. Well, Elihu Foysell is our Marshall McLuhan. We’ll bring him out tomorrow.
 Yeah, for me, it’s always been one of those personal preference kind of situations. Like, you know what you’re paying for if you’re buying points. And we could ask Drew about it. I don’t know.
 I feel like I don’t do nearly as much buying or selling of half points these days, but I definitely have never done much selling of them before. And you’re right, Drew and Andy do talk about that fairly often. All right, Circa Survivor. Hit it. No? I’m a survivor. I was going to say she interrupts all the other time. I don’t know if she’s supposed to sing. She doesn’t. Here again is the updated Circa Survivor through two weeks. Historicals, the six years of Circa Survivor. Look at this year through two full weeks.
 Last year, 72.8% of all entries eliminated through two weeks. This year, a record low and by far 9.36% through two weeks. That’s it. What’s my intrinsic value up to that? Did I gain another $100 last night or something? I’m glad you asked, Kelly. $72 last night tacked on there? You ready? Yeah. What do we got? All right. You’re going to need security out of here.
 I’m selling 49% of my entry. $1,000 per entry. Now actual retail value of each and every one of your entries? $1,103.27. Cash out! Chop it! Chop it. Still 16,966 entries left. That is more than started Circus Survivor last year. If you could organize a chop at this point, Circus Survivor, you would have accomplished the greatest feat in humanity ever. Hey, Jeff Benson, could you put us in touch with everybody? Sure.
 Did you connect everybody for a chop? Uh, okay. So as far as week three, people seem to like this last week when I did, here are the eight biggest spreads here. The four, I won’t consider here the four I will. And by the way, of those eight, all seven, seven of the eight got through. The only one that didn’t was the Vikings. And I said, that was one of my four that I wouldn’t consider, uh, this week. There are seven larger spreads than the others, not eight, uh,
 Because the eighth, Washington is no longer a big spread because of the Jaden Daniels uncertainty. So of the seven that remain of the biggest spreads on the board, Kelly, here are the four that I am not, repeat, not considering playing. The Baltimore Ravens are six-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. I almost said Tigers. Baltimore Ravens, six-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. Now, the Lions are good at football. That’s the first thing.
 And you have other opportunities that are better to use the Ravens if you still have them. If you didn’t use them last week, that is. Or if you have multiple entries and you only used them on some, and you can consider them in the first place. The Ravens play the Bears at home week 8. They’re also at Miami week 9.
 So those, to me, are both better than playing the Lions this week. And oh, by the way, this Thanksgiving game that they are playing, and remember, for circuit players, they host the Bengals on Thanksgiving. Before this past week, I had said, well, I’m just going to push, I’m going to shove all on the Eagles the day after Thanksgiving because the Eagles host the Bears. Yes.
 But now with Jake Browning versus Joe Burrow, despite all the lovely things we said about Jake Browning, maybe if you still have Ravens availability, maybe you do consider playing the Ravens on Thanksgiving now. And so I would not play the Ravens this week. The Packers are eight-point favorites at Cleveland, Kelly. There’s a number of times to me that they’re better to play the Packers.
 Most notably, perhaps, week nine hosting Carolina, week 11 at the Giants, week 14 hosting the Bears. I mean, there’s lots of chances that are perhaps better than this to use the Packers. So I’m not going to play them here at Cleveland, though some may still opt to. Atlanta Falcons, who are now five-point favorites at Carolina. I mean, I just have to go to… They play a home game against Carolina later in the year, right? And a home game against New Orleans, although that game, who knows if it will have…
you know, will the implications mean that the Falcons will have to sit players, or will have the luxury of sitting players, you know, just projecting forward. They also have a home game against the Dolphins week eight. So I don’t love this as a road game to play in Survivor. And then the fourth one that is of the bigger spreads that I am not going to play, Kansas City Chiefs are five and a half point favorites at the Giants. For Circa players, they are at Dallas Thanksgiving and they host the Broncos on Christmas.
 maybe those are considerations for you because maybe by then the Chiefs will be back to being the Chiefs. They’ll
They’ll have Worthy. They’ll have Rasheed Rice. They’ll be a different team. I was going to say, not only is it the holiday, hang on for the holidays, but you can’t tell me the Chiefs are playing their best football of the season right now. Can we go back to that, guys? One last second before I just want to finish that graphic real quick before we move on to the ones I am considering. And the Chiefs have other times to play, right? Week 7, they host the Raiders. Week 12, they host the Colts. Apologies to Colts fans.
 Week 16, they’re at Tennessee. So there’s Thanksgiving, there’s Christmas. They’re just not at full strength now. They just don’t have enough weapons to confidently play them. So those are four big spreads. Ravens, Packers, Falcons, Chiefs, I’m not going to play. The three I am considering, and like last week, I will say, my survivor allocation with my six entries will come from this group. Don’t know what the divvying up will be, but it will come from these three teams in some form. The Buffalo Bills Thursday night.
 12.5 point favorites, so the biggest favorite on the board. They’re hosting the Miami Dolphins. Short week. Does it scare me a little more than it should? Probably. Do I think the Bills should be less of a favorite than they are? Yes, as described on Guessing Lines yesterday. But, and they have other games that perhaps are more fun for some. Week 4, next week, in fact, versus New Orleans. Week 8 at Carolina, week 16 at Cleveland. Maybe other considerations. But…
 It’s still comfortable enough for me to play some of my entries on the Bills. Good thing they get extra rest before that Saints game. That’s right. It’s going to be a tough two weeks. So yeah, I mean, maybe I play some of them. Maybe I play some of them next week against the Saints. Okay, but the Bills are definitely going to be part of this. The other two, Tampa Bay, seven-point favorites against the Terod Taylor-led Jets, perhaps, if Justin Fields doesn’t get out of protocol, and
 Even though Tampa Bay has at New Orleans week eight, home New England week 10, home New Orleans week 14, and then a Carolina home game, which who knows if Tampa Bay will need to suit up for that one or not. I do think that there is some allocation of my entries. Some are going to be on the Bucs. By the way, by some, maybe I’m talking about one of them. Maybe I’m talking about two of them.
 But I do think this is an opportunity to use the Buccaneers. Yes. They’re only one of two teams I’ll be considering this week. Okay. The third is the Seattle Seahawks. And when it comes to future value, this is the team that makes the most sense. Yes.
 I think the most, I don’t know if the biggest percentage is going to be on the Bills Thursday night, but it could be the Seahawks, who are seven and a half point favorites hosting the New Orleans Saints. Really, there’s only another home game versus Minnesota, which might not please some folks as being easier. And then there’s an at Carolina all the way December 28th. So hosting New Orleans here. I think Seattle is going to be the most popular pick, and so maybe optimally you’ll want to.