NFL betting – Urban City Podcast Group

NFL Week 2 Sharp Picks & Public Bets: Expert Betting Advice from Vegas Insiders

Urban City Podcast Group — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 19:05:11 +0000

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Major Takeaways:

Sharp vs. Public Disagreement: Experts identify the Broncos vs. Colts game as a major split, with the public heavily backing the Broncos while sharp money is coming in on the Colts.
Books’ Biggest Needs: According to SuperBook’s John Murray, the books need the Titans, Bears, Seahawks, and Panthers to cover their spreads to balance the heavy public money on their opponents.
Top Prop Bet: James Conner’s rushing yards over is a top sharp play, leveraging the Panthers’ historically poor run defense that was exploited in Week 1

What’s going on everyone? It’s Wager Talk last call. I am so excited that we’ve got week two underway and all the

numbers, everything you need to know. It’s all right here on Wager Talk stack show as always today as we’ve got Yanni

the Greek live from Las Vegas taking you behind the counter telling you everything his sharp groups are on.

Carmine also gonna break things down for us. John Murray, Superbook, you know him, you love him. He’s telling us the

needs on the book because if you want to be on the winning side, we always know the book tends to win more than we do.

And then Press, he’s got his show at 1:00 when you can watch Press go live and he could talk about all the

different games on this slate that he’s watching and you can watch him have a meltdown. He’ll talk about the show, he’ll tell you what action he’s on,

stacked and loaded, ready to go. I’ve got some prop edges as well. Let’s start though with the man, Yanni the Greek.

Yanni, happy week two. Good morning. Good morning. Busy morning. Busy morning as always. How was UFC last

night by the way? How’d you Good. I had a good I turned a profit in UFC. Lost in boxing with Canelo. I I hit

the undercard bet but lost my Canelo bet. And uh you know what’s crazy?

I It’s exactly how I expected it to go with the scorecards in his favor. If

only one more round was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw even though he really lost that fight.

Like it was that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo.

Like if he doesn’t get finished, I didn’t think they were going to give Crawford the decision. It came very close to that happening. So that was

wild. But uh overall good. It’s been a good month. Uh still number one in college football, number one college

football combined. So, let’s just keep doing damage. Not all that much coming in early. Usually, I have first quarter

bets by now, first half bets by now. Um, some team totals. I have player props.

Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. I don’t know. Week two. They’re there. It’s slow. It’s been sides and totals so far and a lot

of baseball this morning. So, I’m thinking it’s going to get busy over the last hour. Oh, okay. So, if we don’t have any of

these smaller markets like first quarter bets and whatnot, where have you seen the most action come in on for sides?

Oh, that that’s pretty easy. Um, here are the biggest sides right now. Uh, the

latest is the Cowboys. Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys. Nothing but Cowboy money. Jets,

believe it or not. Um, that’s why that line’s now through that touchdown. The Jets are one of those dogs that are

getting a lot of love early. And who else? Who else? Who? Oh, 49ers. Even

though um that line’s dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Um uh the

Saints, forgive me, getting all those points because of KD, because of Perie. Um the public doesn’t mind. They’re

still coming in with San Francisco today. And then um Arizona. Arizona is

going to be big risk for the books later because there’s going to be a ton of straight bets, a ton of moneyline

parlays, and a ton of teasers all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And

um yeah, that’s pretty much it. I mean, again, um good spread out action, but

those are the ones attracting the most money so far. Dallas, um

49ers, and I have to say the Arizona Cardinals. biggest risk for the book so

far. The big game of the day is the Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most

action come in on for that really short one and a half point spread? Exactly. And it’s kind of flipped back

and forth staying around that one. This is a great matchup to be a book maker in

because there’s really little risk. They’re booking good two-way action. Even like with parlays and teasers,

you’re getting good two-way action. So, not much risk at all for the books. Um,

I actually made the Eagles a favorite in the game. I made my total about 45, 45

and a half. Um, so I don’t think I’m going to be able to get down. It’s right around where that number is. I know all

the excitement again is on that Super Bowl rematch. U, but so far what I can tell you is good split two-way action

from the recreational bers and nothing from the Wise guys except they got out ahead on the over. They went over 46 and

a half when that total opened. But pay attention to the um lodge odds logic screen and see if there’s takeback on

that one because again that’s a high-profile standalone more or less late afternoon game that’s going to get

a lot of over money from the recreational bers. I actually just saw my Ravens line move

to 12 and a half spread on the board this week. Yeah. And and here’s the thing. We bet

the Browns earlier in the week at plus Don’t tell me that, Yanni. Yeah. Yeah. at plus 12 and and that line

dropped. Um earlier it was like at my sharper shops I’m even seeing 13 13 and

a half but it was down to like 11 and a half Ariel because we took the points with with um the Browns but since then

they came back with the Ravens and again a lot of that has to do with late injury information that you know the the the

official injury reports don’t come out till later in the week. So, a lot of times betting synders trying to get out

ahead of that information and as it changes, they’re not afraid to get offer on a game. Um, and it looks like that’s

what’s happening. Even though early Brown short money, you’re starting to see that Baltimore sharp money come in

because the public’s not really getting involved in that game. It’s mostly being teased. They’re teasing the Ravens down

um to where, you know, they’ve got to win by one score more or less to cover that teaser. That’s where I’m seeing most of the betting action from the

public um on that game. And they’re betting it over, blindly over. I’m talking eight, nine out of every 10 bets

has been on the over in the Ravens and Browns. Bill wants to know if you’ve got a

teaser for today. Teaser right now here. I would definitely tease the New England Patriots. Um, win or lose, that’s a plus

CV sign. You’re getting them up through three, through six, through seven, and you’re seeing a total that open 45 and a

half. Get that bet down to 43 and a half. So, that’s exactly what you want. You want a a game that’s expected to

have low points. The lower the scoring, the more each point is worth. That’s what you want for your teasers. The only

problem is finding another leg to tie him into. And right now, I would have to go with Tampa on Monday night. Another

perfect setup where the total open 46 and a half. Now, we’re looking at 42 and a half. So, you can’t get a better

teaser than that. Like, that’s a perfect plus CB teaser right now where you tie in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay.

The only thing you got to hope for is that that um Houston line don’t go to three tomorrow. That’s the problem. I’m

seeing two and a halfs minus 12.0. So if it goes to three, it’s no longer a wangable teaser. It’s no longer

advantageous. You’re better off just taking the plus three. That’s the problem. I’m not seeing any other leg

you could really tease today. And they’ve done a really good job of protecting themselves from them teasers

because again, those are very advantageous. You know, you have an edge on it. As long as you’re not laying more than 125 on a six-point teaser, you

could print money. really really got me mad this year and they’re blocking them. So, I live in New York and I use all the

books the like the I use all the legal books here and every year I use my

teasers with DraftK. I place my teasers with DraftKings because they’ve been minus 120. Since DraftKings came to New

York, FanDuel was minus 136. MGM was minus 130. DraftKings have the best number at minus 120. This season, they

have now moved it to minus 136. Yeah, because here’s why. Let me explain to you exactly why. It’s the same reason

on the if you walk through the casino floor on the floor the blackjack is now six to five. It’s no longer three to

two. That little switch of one rule where you no longer pay 3 to2 you’re playing six to five. Most betterers

don’t even acknowledge that. Don’t even understand that. But that change in rule made it to where someone like me can no

longer beat that game where I’m I could beat a game a fair game of blackjack but switching it from three to two to six to

five my edge is gone in teasers by going to 130 the sixpoint teaser is no longer

beatable at 120 you had a 2% edge all you had to do is tease through three

three six and seven and you had a 2% edge your break even was around 74%. if

you’re able to do that, you’re going to hit around 76%. So, they knew you had a 2% edge if you were teasing the right

sides. Well, most weren’t teasing the right numbers. So, DraftKings didn’t care. They had so much recreational

bets, they could keep it at 120 and attract all that teaser action. Eventually, sharp bers took advantage of

that. And that’s why it’s no longer available. If you’re laying 130 on a six-point teaser, you’re now taking the

worst of it. you’re hoping to be the product of good luck because it’s a negative EV bet. There’s negative

expectations on your bet there. Like that’s the math. That’s not my opinion. That’s just how the math plays out.

Uh teaser question. Do you have to play a favorite and an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?

My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet two underdogs. It really doesn’t matter. Um just don’t tease

totals. That’s it. And don’t tease across zero. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don’t go through those

zeros. We don’t go through those zeros. Uh Marley saying, “Hi, Yanni, by the way.” Good morning. Um any Steelers Seahawk advice?

I I like the dog there. I like Seattle. Um listen, the Jets were able to score

on the Steelers. The Steelers got, you know, the that field goal in the end. They got the win, but at the end of the

day, that you’re the Jets are able to move the ball like that on you. I don’t think Seattle, whose offense didn’t look

great, is going to have all that many problems. And defensively, defensively, what I saw out of Seattle last week, all

those turnovers, fumbles, interceptions, and they still limited the offense of

the opposition. I think the Steelers are going to have trouble scoring on Seattle. Um, I like the Seahawks. I I

think that three is a gift. Um, yeah, I like Seattle there, but I’m seeing Shawn Money coming in. They’re pushing that

Steeler from three to juice. I don’t like seeing that. I would have liked to see that two and a half this morning.

So, but I like the Seattle side. I liked a question that the chat also had and I don’t know where it is, but

someone asked, “Is there a side that the public and the Sharps are disagreeing

on?” I’ll tell you, Adam.

Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to go Broncos Colts. Um because I’m seeing a lot of one-sided public money

coming in on the Broncos. And again, in the afternoon, there’s not all that many games. Um, that’s Broncos, Broncos,

Broncos. I’m seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays, and uh sharps on the the Colts side. So, that’s definitely

one where it’s sharps on one side, public on the other. Um, yeah, that that’s one for sure that sticks out.

Speaking of that game, there’s going to be a lot of overreactions in week two. We know the public loves to overreact.

Miami looked like dog crap last week. The Colts, they looked great. even though I don’t feel like people really

believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to? Whether it’s for better or for worse, who should we not

overreact to this week, Yanni? I think the Lions. Uh, you know, all the the just how how bad they look. Lost the

offensive coordinator, lost the defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal. They beat the Lions

in game one. They come back, they win on Thursday night against a Washington team, you know, that coming off a great

season. Um, so Detroit’s kind of like that forgotten team right now. I think they win by at least 10 today.

I’m all over. Yeah, they’re my survivor pick this week for a lot of spots. I I picked them in my

pickup pool. I don’t normally love to lay close to a touchdown. The Lions matchup, I don’t believe that the Bears

run D was as good as it was last week in week one. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, they aren’t as good and dynamic and

versatile as the backfield for the Lions. The Lions should be able to run clock, run all over the Bears D and

cover the spread. Yeah, I I think so. And and also like the the Saints, again, I I I don’t

understand why how you could have these players out for San Francisco and yet

all the money is on San Francisco. Again, I know we usually overreact that players are worth more to the line than

they truly are. Um, but in this spot it’s like New Orleans was all all over

all already a team betters were looking to fade. They lost in week one to Arizona. Now they’re playing a San

Francisco team and like they’re fading them again. I think that’s a dangerous spot right there. Be careful with San

Francisco on the road on especially and uh players key players out. That’s one

that I keep seeing bet and uh seeing the over being bet by the public as well. Um

again, but the Sharks bet that under they’re usually going to bet the injured U matchups under. They went under 44 and

a half all the way to under 42. That’s why you’re looking at 41 right now. And real quickly, pay attention to that

because of the look aheads. So, if you’re looking at your odds logic screen or at the very least the free um wager

talk free odds and you’ll click, make sure you look at the date of where the line opened because the look aheads are

from like before last week’s games. some of them were or during last week’s games and those limits are very small. So,

they’re able to, you know, take some sharp action, but the limits are low off those first numbers. So, look at the

date from Monday on and then see what actually was adjusted because a lot of

them look like big line movements, but off of that look ahead, there’s not much movement at all. It’s just because from

the look ahead to where they officially opened for the week, there was a big gap

because of the overreaction like you touched on. Nick from New York City wants to know, “What are the most public totals for the

books that they need today?” Oh, yeah. That’s easy. There’s It’s going to be on the overs, that’s for

sure. So, start with over Jaguars Bengals,

over Giants, Cowboys, over Bills Jets.

Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most. Like it’s not even close. Like 90 plus% of the tickets and

the bets are on the overs in all four of those games. Yeah, a lot of unders in week one. We’ve

got prime time as well. So, we’ve got one game tonight between the Falcons and the Vikings. And then we’ve got two

Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see coming in there? Yeah, you’re seeing that that um Atlanta money

continue to come in and I’m interested to see if that land that scares me a little. I like them.

It’s down to that three now. I’m surprised. I was surprised that they were at three and you could even get him

at now plus three at even money because you know they got to juice the three. I’m like is it going to go to three minus 110 2 and a half? Like there’s a

lot of love on the Atlanta side. Um and the o under there from Sharf but the

public’s betting it over. And then tomorrow on Monday night, it’s the Chargers. Everybody’s in love with the

Chargers now after week one. Um, and playing here against Las Vegas. You

know, it’s a big Monday night game for the Raiders. Be careful there. It’s above that key number now of three. But

a lot of uh parlays and uh teasers that are going to be live from Sunday are

definitely going to be on the Chargers Monday night. Interested to see if that line continues to climb as well. But I

haven’t seen sharp money on those. The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers Texans immediately when that

line opened and they’ve just continued to bet that one under. That doesn’t surprise me. Uh Survivor

picks for today. Who would you do for Survivor? Well, obviously, you know, everybody’s

going to look at Baltimore if they haven’t played him. You got a double digit favorite. But there there’s no fun

in that. Uh who would I go with real quickly? I think I would take Buffalo. I

think I would take Buffalo. I don’t Buffalo’s not losing to the Jets. I I think it’s a decent spot to take Buffalo

in. Yeah, go with Buffalo. Buffalo.

I know that props aren’t as much of your thing as mine, but did did the groups

come in on any props today? No, that’s what I keep refreshing and I

they they will. I just haven’t gotten any. I haven’t gotten any yet. Interesting. Is there a reason that they

wait because they’re trying to wait for the unders? I think so. Again, it’s it’s early still in the season. Um,

but here’s what I noticed and I know that you can say and maybe listen, there

are some times where a prop will go from like I’ll give an example. Travis Kelsey

this week was 53 and a half went down to 49 and a half. At that point, I would say like I took under 53 and a half

early this week and I said, “Well, now it’s 49 and a half. So wait to see if it gets bet over and then you could go and

take the under again. But a lot of the times when I’m on the right side of that number, it drops and doesn’t bounce

back. So I don’t know sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders.

Like you’ve got to bet those unders early. I’ve seen so many numbers drop five 10 yards throughout the span of a

week and you’ll never get that good number back. I always tell bers it’s hard enough to

beat the market. Don’t try to play psychic on when you’re going to beat it. Like when you have a bet, fire, fire. I

I if you’re right more than you’re wrong, long term, you’re going to get closing line value. Don’t worry about it

on individual bets. It’s kind of like don’t overreact on any individual result, any one bet. The same thing with

closing line value. Like if the line moves against you, that’s okay. As long as in the majority of times it’s moving

in your favor, you’re getting better number by getting out early. continue to get out early. If that’s not happening

to you, then you got to revisit the thesis. But if if you’re betting early

and more times than not, you’re getting closing line value. Keep doing what you’re doing. You’re only going to get

more and more of it because you’re doing the right thing. If if you’re not, then you got to revisit it. But otherwise,

don’t worry about the time it goes against you. Because even with me, with the groups that I work with, it happens. Look, it happened with the Browns. I

took we took 12 and now I could get 13 today. So, I could get a better number today than what we betted at. That’s

going to happen. But as long as, you know, seven out of ten times we’re getting the best of the number, I could live with that.

Yanni, is Miami a good team in Survivor this week? Oh,

Miami. What is against the Patriots? No. I I I guess if you’re you want to take a

shot and roll the dice, that’s too much of a coin flip game. I think it’s too early in the season to roll the dice like that. like in week two to go.

You always talk about regressing to the mean, right? Miami is not as bad as they looked last week.

No, no, no. But here’s the problem. Here’s the problem. That it’s the NFL

season and it’s sure, Ariel, and we have those outliers. If it was baseball, I would say 100% Miami is going to regress

or progress towards the mean. There’s enough time. But in football, sometimes there’s not enough time. We have those

outliers where on paper a team’s so much better or worse than their record, but they just never have enough time to

become that team they’re capable of being. In baseball, you have 162 games. That’s why before the season started, I

could tell you maybe one team’s going to win 60 games. The first place teams are going to win between 57 and 59, maybe 55

and 59. Why? Because we have a history of 50 plus years of them playing 162

games. And that’s what happens. No one’s going to win 70% of their games, but in football sometimes that happens. Not

enough time to progress and regress. There are those outliers. So, be cautious with that uh quick turnaround

expecting the the bias to to flip back the other way. But yeah, I don’t have to take Miami. I’m cheering them in. I

don’t have a dog in the fight. Oh, we I love it. I love to hear all these sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube page over at

Wager Talk, you can scroll back and see everything Yanni just gave out. I see all your questions in the chat. Uh Yanni

talked about pretty much all those games, so make sure to take a look there. Uh lastly, I guess you said you

had a lot of MLB coming in, so anything for the guys that want to take advantage of a market that maybe is being ignored

today? Yeah, real quickly. 952 Pittsburgh and under eight and a half. 958 under eight

and a half Colorado San Diego. 960 under eight Yankees Boston 962 under eight and

a half Baltimore Toronto. Multiple groups blasted that one. 966 under eight LA and Seattle Atlanta plus 125 KC plus

145 Miami plus 125 dog on Sundays that time of the year for

baseball whether you follow or fade good luck today join us in the steam room kicks off in about 30 minutes we’ll go

through every NFL game and you’ll get those teasers about 15 minutes before kickoff as well

Yanni the Greek he’s always over here giving us these winners thanks so much Yanni thanks Ariel

coming up now we are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This time he’s

behind the counter. He is my very good friend, best friend of Kelly in Vegas, co-host of Kelly and Murray, but more

importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies. John Murray joining

the show. Hi, John. Ariel, best friend of Kelly in Vegas. I

don’t know about my best friend is my pug, Mario. So, come on. Come on. I thought that it was going to be a

raging endorsement to be Kelly in Vegas. So, how are how are you doing today? You

ready for the Ravens? I know they let you down last week. I I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember this?

The book needed Bills big time. And then I slid into your DMs after the game and

said, “Are you at least happy for me?” And you said no. One word answer. Very disappointing.

Football’s a selfish sport. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Okay. I’m not a happy person. Football season

makes me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice of you though. You’re a really great friend, JM. You love to

just harass us when we’re down. Keep kicking us. No, no, that was that was a big game for us. I won’t be rooting against you

today, though. I will I will be rooting for I’m going to root for the Ravens today for you.

Thank you. Thank you, John, so much. I know that week two is filled with overreactions. Uh but I know that my

personal group chat loves to know the needs for the Super Bowl this week. What are they?

Uh definitely. I’d say early in the morning we’re going to need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the

morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and a half point dog right now against the Rams. I

mentioned the Bears. We’re going to need Seattle. So Pittsburgh off their win against the Jets is a popular side.

We’ll need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy. Uh looks like we’re going to

need Carolina. That doesn’t sound like fun. That sounds fun. Carolina at Arizona. Think about think

about the NFL being on this side of the counter is you gota you’re basically going to bring for the same teams every week. I think this year it’s going to be

a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans, uh maybe Tennessee. Although I actually

thought that Cam Ward looked pretty good last Sunday to be honest with you going on the road against that Denver defense.

His receivers did him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right between the hands and them dropping the ball.

So, I don’t think Cam Ward’s going to be that bad, but I do think we’re going to need the Titans a lot. We need him today.

I know my group chat’s going to love to hear that the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are going to be the teams that they have to bet

today. It’s setting Who’s in that group chat, Ariel? Who’s in that group chat? Kelly, I

uh this group chat one of 80,000. Uh Chris Thirsten. I love Chris. I love

Buckeye Joe. Okay, I know who that is. I know. Buckeye Joe. Um I think that’s it. Everyone else kind

of has been eliminated from our lives. The chat bigger, but every year it seems like we dwindle.

Everybody else is off the hook. Off the hook. Everyone else off. That’s good. That’s good.

How about totals? Any totals? Uh, let me see. I’m sure we’ll we’ll probably need the under in the uh Yeah,

we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas City game. Obviously, that’s the big game in the

afternoon. Looks like we’ll want under in your game. want the under in

Baltimore cle Baltimore Cleveland game and the under in the Buffalo game. Buffalo and the New York Jets. We got

some money on the over in that one as well. We’ll be rooting for Oh, here’s one where we actually need the over. You

ready for this? We need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is all the way down to 49ers minus three. 49ers

obviously have some key injuries on offense. I mentioned the Saints. Spencer Rattler

is their quarterback for whatever reason and we will be needing them to go over.

Total right now is 40 and a half. That actually makes a lot of sense that that game would need to go over.

Does make sense. Yes. How did the books do in week one overall, JM? So, we had a great morning. We did great

in the morning games and then we lost every afternoon game last week. It was It reminded me a lot of like every

weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games were really bad for us. We really needed uh Houston against the

Rams. That was a really bad game for us. We lost the 49er game. We lost the Packer game and then all the moneyline

parlays and teasers went to Denver and they won. So, we lost every game in the afternoon. Luckily, and I’m not saying

this I’m not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo winning did bail us out.

Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail us out. Saying that to people, I will never understand why John

Harbaugh punted on fourth and three. I I I talked about this with Kelly. I think

I think one of the biggest things that doesn’t get talked about enough in the NFL is it’s not black and white like oh

should you go for it on fourth and three. It’s who’s your quarterback who’s the other team’s quarterback. If your

quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team’s quarterback is Josh Allen. Yeah. You need to go for it on fourth

and three. You don’t cramping. Yeah. You don’t Well, you don’t punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay. You’re

just you’re just saying we’re going to lose. If the other team’s quarterback was Russell Wilson, well, then maybe you

would punt the ball back, right? So, I think I think that that doesn’t get talked about enough when people are evaluating those fourth down situations.

But, I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it was very good for us. I’m sorry.

Hey, listen. I’m going to overreact and say the Ravens are dead to me until further notice.

Week two overreactions though. Where have you seen the public overreact?

Uh, let’s see. the public. I mean, the public is very heavily on the Rams. Uh, I mentioned that game. And then there’s

been a there’s a lot of money actually on New England this week. So, New England is a very popular side.

New England did lose last week to the Raiders, but they at least looked like a competent operation,

unlike their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who Well, that’s where I think people could be overreacting, though, that I don’t

think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week. I usually expect Miami to be a decent

team until two tongue of Viola gets injured, which he will, right? And then and then after that, the wheels will

come off for that that organization, but as long as two is in there, I don’t expect them to be to be terrible. I I

don’t think so. Uh the other team that’s really the most heavily bet team of the

day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don’t have as much money on that game. It’s more tickets, but so it’s not as

big of a need as some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the

points, Dallas moneyline is in every parlay under the sun today. I just made

a Russell Wilson joke. So apparently I agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible last week against

the Commanders, the football team. I I don’t blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably should have

beat the Eagles in week one. They get the Giants today. We’ll see. Those Giants. Uh, anything in the

futures market stand out after week one? Yeah. You know, they’re starting to bet.

They’re starting to bet on Green Bay, which I get. You know, Green Bay, uh, I

I look, I like Detroit last week. I think we talked about that when I was on your show. And we had a lot of guys I

respect on Detroit. That line actually closed Green Bay minus one. And that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay handle

Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe Green Bay maybe they’re

not that good. Well, they are that good, especially on defense. Uh Green Bay, I don’t know what there’s nothing you can

say that isn’t positive about them right now. As long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy. Micah Parsons is just getting his legs

underneath him. He’s not even at full speed yet. Once he gets I think the only not nice thing I could say about Green Bay is that everybody’s

on Green Bay. Yeah, but that’s true. But they were on Thursday and you know we did not do well

on the game Thursday. Every the public bet Green Bay for sure in that game and and they won it easily. So what what can

you say? The public isn’t always wrong. The public well hey look we uh the the

public was all over Terrence Bud Crawford last night here at Allegian Stadium and he won very decisively. Very

impressive. The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely

not. John Murray coming over to see us from the Westgate. I’ve got my pup. You want

to say hi to John? You want to say hi to John? I do want to say John J wants to say hi to you. She

really is mad that we’re just sitting here and not outside playing in this beautiful weather. Uh I guess final

question. Prime time games, two games tomorrow, one game tonight. What do you see in prime time?

Well, there’s there’s a lot of action on the two games tomorrow night and and kudos to the NFL. They’re finally giving us a true double header. You know, last

year they did a lot of those where they had the two Monday night games spaced out by an hour. Thought I found that a little annoying. This week we get an

actual double header. Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp

money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams that look

great in week one, how about the Chargers and Justin Herbert? They looked awesome last Friday night. They beat Kansas City

in in Sa Paulo, Brazil. They looked really good. You know, I love Jim Harbaugh. So, keep an eye on the Chargers. They I

think the Raiders will end up being a big need for the books because there will be parlays all day today going into

the Chargers tomorrow night in the late game. We’ll probably need the Raiders in

that one. We’ve got a WNBA question. What’s your feedback when the playoffs start?

Uh, let me see. the what was I mean repeat the question I’ll attempt to answer it what was it

WNBA any advice when the playoffs start oh boy let’s see well luckily for me I

do work at a sports book so I can look to see what the smart people bet on because I don’t know much about the WNBA

I apologize for that but certainly some smart money on it looks like the Storm

oh against the Aces that’s unfortunate the Storm tonight against the Aces in game one they bet down from plus 7 to +

5 and a half. They also bet the over in that game. So, the storm and the over

game one is tonight in Las Vegas. There’s a big sporting in sporting event in Las Vegas every day, Ariel, every

single day. And wait till we get Major League Baseball in a couple of years. I can’t wait. I will be there. I want to

go and make sure that we go to a real baseball game together. JM

live from Las Vegas. Thanks for hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving us the needs of the day.

Appreciate you. And not good luck. No good luck today. Oh, that’s nice. That’s very nice.

You’re welcome. I’ll still talk to you next week anyway. I appreciate that. Thanks, John Murray. Have a good one.

And if you guys don’t know about it, the oddslogic screen, you could go to oddslogic.compropeen.

And you heard Yanni mention it. It shows you literally all the odds on the board. It tells you how lines opened, how

they’re closing, how they moved, and every sports book, etc. So, oddslogic.com/prop

queen. Someone who knows about OddsLogic very well. Our good friend Carman Biano joining the show now. He’s not in Vegas.

He’s in Canada. What’s up, Karm? Not much. I can’t John Murray used his

luck today on Liverpool. They got a 93rd minute penalty kick, so he should be happy uh even if the book takes a hit

today. But um everything’s good. Um weather’s still good up here. No snow,

Ariel, don’t worry. And our our Blue Jays are still a top of the AL East, but

we won’t go there. It’s football Sunday. It’s football Sunday. We can talk about the AL East and that craziness this

coming week. But Karm, I don’t really get to talk much NFL with you. Usually it’s hockey, it’s baseball, it’s soccer.

NFL, what do you like today? Uh we’re going to talk like some

overreactions. So I’m going to go through some games. I think the the two that really stand out to me. Uh well, I have a 5% play up at Wager Talk, so I’m

not going to discuss that game. Uh you can get it over on my page, but one of

my client plays today is Denver. You know, we talk about like overreaction. Uh you know, Indie had a very good game

against Miami, but Miami I I thought Miami just looked terrible out of the gate. Uh, you know, I feel like this

line should probably be around um, uh, Denver two, two and a half. I’m seeing

like a lot of ones and one and a halfs on the wager talk live odds. It’s never going to hit three. It’s never going to

hit that key number. But, you know, Denver is supposed to have a good season. They have a very good defense. They didn’t play uh did did they didn’t

seem to be ready to play in week one against Cam Ward uh on the road in his

first start as a rookie, but they got the win and that’s all that ultimately matters. They don’t care about covering

point spreads. They care about W’s. Um I I I think they win here and uh and I

think they they they cover this spread easily. At least they they win by three points, which is more than enough.

Houston definitely on Monday night. I absolutely love that one. That’s going to be on my card as well, too. I just

haven’t loaded it yet at two and a half. When we talk about like overreactions, I’m seeing a lot of money coming in on

Miami. Miami is like up to two and a half right now. And I I still don’t get it w with the Dolphins. Uh I think once

they get rid of their once they get rid of their coach, uh we may see a change in this team. But I just don’t get how

the Miami Dolphins year in and year out look like a team that has potential to

win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight and eight n and

eight. Uh Cleveland Baltimore, you’re not going to like this one, Ariel, but I think Cleveland stays within the number

on this one. It it is at a point now where it’s at 12 and there’s always that back door if Baltimore uh was to blow

them up. But Cleveland’s front four is a very good front four. And if they can somehow uh stop Derrick Henry, which is

it seems like impossible to do, and uh and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay inside this number. Flaco

doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Uh the team can run. So we’ll we’ll see what happens here uh between those two, but I

think they can stay within that number. Everyone is on Baltimore in Survivor and I I absolutely understand that in circa

I think there’s 6,000 plus on the Ravens as the most picked team. San Francisco I

don’t get Ariel I don’t get the I I understand the line drop. Uh I do but

this is still a very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have to give me

M. Jones versus Rattler, I’m going to take M. Jones on this team. This team

still has CMC uh Persol. Uh Joan Jennings is supposed to be a game time decision and they still have that

defense. Uh while they have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense and

sometimes defense will win you games and put your team in a position to win games. It’s at three now and bettable.

At five and a half, I don’t think it was bettable. At three, I would take San Francisco even with the injuries. Uh

what else? Casey, a little bit of overreaction, I think, on that one. I get it. Philadelphia absolutely smoked

them in the Super Bowl last season, but Casey’s Casey is still Casey. Uh, and

uh, at home, uh, this is in Casey, I believe, is it

not? Uh, at home, Casey. Mahomes as a dog. We’ve talked about it before.

Not a good situation to bet against them. Uh regular season and playoffs are

two different beasts. Uh just ask the Buffalo Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in pre uh sorry in

regular season and then uh get eliminated in the playoffs. Uh two

different ones there. And then the final one I think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of like Atlanta getting the

hook uh at the three and a half tonight uh in that late one.

Kind of going through like the entire card today. I wasn’t expecting that. No, blasting through it.

No, I love it because these are plays. John Murray just came on and he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina

are the four sides that they probably need the most today. And I am not surprised because I feel like a lot of

people I’ve heard of are on Arizona. I get it. And I really like James Connor today in his rushing yard prop because

Carolina D is terrible against the run. Um, but I have a friend who works in

Carolina and he loves the Panthers today. So, I feel like there’s just like a lot of pros verse Joe’s today.

Shouldn’t he like uh Carolina though if he if he lives No, he works in media. Like he’s

nonbiased. Nonbias. So, he’s nonbiased. Okay. Well, I I get it. Uh, I I I always put my bias aside

when I’m talking about the Buffalo Bills as well, too, because you can sort of let that your mind

and um, no, I I hardly ever bet on the Bills. It uh, normally because number

one, the the spreads are just uh, even though they’re a good cover team and they were last year, the spreads are

normally just high. You look at the Bills today and we didn’t discuss the Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves

the Jets. Uh I I know Joe Reeri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems to love

the Jets. A terrible scheduling spot for the Bills. Ravens last week. They’re on a short week next week going to M or

facing Miami. So I understand. I had no I wanted nothing to do with the Bills.

Yeah. and uh you know and you look at some of the injuries obviously Ed Oliver uh missing is a a big miss for them but

you look at some of the injuries during the week uh um with regards like the

like even their running back uh he tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday uh he wasn’t a full participant on Thursday I

think he did practice on Friday so we’ll see what we we get from him uh Keon Keon

Coleman as well too and then there’s that guy who you just don’t want to throw at which is uh Sauce Gardner. You

know, you just don’t want to go against them. Uh and the and if you look at historically over the last few years um

with uh with Josh Allen, uh he doesn’t go after Sas Gardner. He’s gone after him a couple times. He doesn’t go after

him. So, it it’s who else on the Bills steps up. Uh we’ll see what Shakir does

as well, too. But, uh I understand the live live movement. I think seven coming out uh opening at seven uh was probably

not a great thing because it was always going to bring in Jets money and it’s down to like five five and a half I

think six. You know, the interesting thing is, you know, people talk about teasers. And while I I do enjoy playing

teasers, you look at the three most popular teams with like a six and a half point teaser. And this was as of like

last night, you could have taken the Bills, Zona, and Detroit, and essentially made all three games a pick

them. And those three teams would pay you back at plus 130 on a six and a half

point teaser. If you take the same three teams on the money line, it pays 140. And this is why when you’re playing

teasers, it’s important to keep an eye on the money lines of these teams and see is it better to play a moneyline

ticket than it is to play a teaser because you’re you’re giving up some value by not taking the plus 140 on the

money line parlay as opposed to taking a teaser. Well, yeah, we were just talking about

this before, especially with all these books now charging you minus 135 for a teaser, a two-legged teaser. Just

absolutely ridiculous. And seven, by the way, Jimmy Burke 13, terrible against

the run. They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey. They have been terrible against the run for the

last year and a half. They were the worst run D in football last year. And it didn’t change after they allowed

Travis ETN to put up 143. So, come on. Let’s It’s not just week one. Like, not

just week one. Sorry, I had to get that out there. Karm, what are you promoting today?

Uh, three plays up. Uh I gave you guys one of them which is uh the Denver Broncos, but uh a 5% play uh since the

start of the 2022 NFL season which dates back three years now. Uh when releasing

four and 5% plays and all of my plays uh this week are four and 5% plays plus 130

units uh at wager talk which is number one amongst everyone at wager talk with

uh NFL. And we’re coming off a 3 and 0 day in college football yesterday as well too. Um, I got what uh Ariel, I got

the closing line value yesterday on I released it early in the week because I figured the line would drop on Arkansas.

They were plus seven uh once Old Miss um announced their their QB was out. That

line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time and I got the cover. So, I’m pretty happy about that with with

Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But the weekend warrior uh package is still up. $49 will get you

all of today’s plays and all of tomorrow’s plays in NFL football as well, too. So, um that that is it for

now. No other uh no other plays up. Uh it’s been a great weekend, five and one

yesterday, and we’re just going to try and keep it going through Sunday and Monday. And we’re going to be sweating

the games live today. Uh if you guys haven’t seen it uh la or you didn’t

watch it last week, Enzone Live, which will be on I think around 1:30 today, I

could be wrong on the time, but Enzone Live today. Uh the press um there’s a

bunch of people coming on the show. There’s about four or five and we just sweat the games. We let you know what our bets are and uh it is like five guys

at a bar just talking trash to each other and uh trying to win bets because

sometimes we’re on opposite sides. So talking trash is great. We love talking trash. Karm, you’re the

best. Thanks so much for coming on. Good luck today. You as well. Thank you. Cody Holloway, I don’t know what FanDuel

you’re at. My FanDuel charges minus 130US 135 on teasers. So, I don’t know

if it’s a state-by-st state thing, but here in New York, FanDuel is not charging minus 110. In fact, I haven’t

seen one book charge a minus 110 on a teaser, a two-leg teaser. I have not

seen a minus 110 anywhere on any of the public sports books or the um the sports

books over here. So, I don’t know where you’re getting that, but okay. Last but certainly not least, as we mentioned

before with Karm Enzone Live coming up at 1 PM Eastern time and all of your favorite Wazer Talk handicappers will be

on there sweating out their bets. Andy and Pres are going to be on there. So Pres joining the show. How did week one

go at that endzone live betting show? Well, uh I don’t know actually. I just

did all the talking. Uh everyone who How did you do? I I did okay. I went with my clients.

The show was fun. I had a blast. Uh, but it’s a long show and you know it’s still

you got uh sunshine outside. Normally I would have watched the game at my pool.

I have like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the hot tub. But alas, I got to work and

I’m okay with that. I I uh I offered my services. We love to work. Pres, what do you like

today? Uh what do I like today? Um God, I’ll tell you. I I’ll go down the card at 100

miles an hour, but I do want to say one thing firstly, Ariel, you mentioned rough spot for uh the the Bills with

Baltimore back behind us and uh Miami in front. Why is it not a rough spot for

the New York Jets? Circling a game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it, then screwing it up at the

end, having to go in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having to say no to their wives that night cuz they are very

upset. then having to go to Monday and being lectured and reamed out uh all the

way through the week, feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves. The only reason it’s not is because the

Bills are on a short week going into Thursday. Okay. The only difference

I I accept what you’re saying and that’s what kept me off of the Bills today. But

uh yeah, no interest in the Bills today. But I agree with you that the Jets are not in any better of a position except

they are the home team and they aren’t on a short week, but I have no interest in the game because if

you think I want to be that miserable to have to bet the Jets this week, the answer is no. Okay. I like Miami. You guys were

talking about it earlier. Uh John Murray said a lot of money coming in on New England, which is very interesting given

that Miami is now minus 2 and a half. Uh we’ve done a deep dive into this and uh

if you can get a an an NFL team under minus two, you’re better off taking it on the money line. That does not work at

two and a half. At minus two and a half, you’re better off in the long run taking

uh laying the points. But I like Miami here and I look at it this way. This is

their season. This is this might be Mike McDaniel’s coaching career. that last

week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong in every way that if they can’t

fix it immediately, I don’t think they continue. So, I think Miami has to give

us the best game they can all year and they are at home and it’s a short price.

And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m an emotional uh when as a handicapper, I look at the emotions of

teams and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this game feeling really high on themselves. Um look, they they

won last week miraculous fashion. They’re 1 and0. They’re in a tough division. They have a game that is

easily winnable. Um and I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I’m not a fan

of Sam Darnold at all. So there’s two bets. I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami

and both of those two are in my circa uh bets. Also, real quick, Ariel, the show

starts at 1 p.m. The live show that we’re doing starts at 100 p.m. today and

yeah, it’s a blast. Last week, we had an absolute blast.

Everyone gets to tune in at 1 pm Eastern time to watch Enzone live betting show. You could see Fred sweating out all

those bets he gave. Uh before I let you go, I know you got to get ready for the show. Survivor plays today.

Yeah. So, I took Arizona on my Survivor play. And you know, Ariel, the the

Baltimore play for all the people in the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took Baltimore is now going

to get stuck having to pick between Green Bay in Detroit,

Washington in Dallas, or they’re going to have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because

Baltimore is out for Christmas or Thanksgiving. Whichever one of those it’s Thanksgiving.

Yeah. So, whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly because

would you take Green Bay going into Detroit? Would you take Detroit hosting Green Bay? Would you take Washington

going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington? No chance you’re taking Cincinnati in Baltimore. So,

I don’t get it. I try to take a longterm approach with this. Uh, so we’ll see. I guess there are people that take the

long-term approach. Then there are the people that take the I just want to survive to that point approach.

That’s probably most of the public the way that they play it. Uh I know that Survivor I know like Lions is probably

up there too for some people, but Arizona is a pretty I like the play even though I know the books need the Panthers. So good luck to you.

Yeah. And one of the guys in the chat room uh way back said, “Who’s a better better Giani or the press?” Uh, Giani

uh, lives, sleeps, eats, breathes. Giani

literally lives betting like nobody I’ve ever met before in my life. It It’s 18

hours a day. All he does is study bets. I do not. I am a businessman and I make

bets and I’m good at it. But Giani, Giani hands down. Although in NHL,

I’m way better than Giani. So that in that one sport, but Giani,

everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it’s baseball for me. I could be Kelly in baseball. And everything else, I’ll

give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds, and sleeps this stuff. Press, so do you, though. So do you. We love to have you

on here on Last Call. Have fun watching those games live with all the audience at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Everyone, make

sure to tune in. Uh good luck today. Thanks guys. Thanks for having me. Thanks for doing the cereal.

Of course. Pres. Okay. So for me, a few props that I gave out earlier this week

throughout the show. Jir Gibbs over rushing yards. James Connor over rushing yards. Travis Kelce under receiving

yards. I think Joe Flacco throws the football a lot in his first game back at Mnt Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Um

there’s obviously analytics and analysis behind all this. Um, so if you want to check it out, you can go to the prop

queen.com. Sign up and subscribe to the newsletter or you can watch my shows at the prop queen pod. Um, I’ve given out

all that info all over the show. Best bet right now, as of today, I took James Connor over uh

I think it was 63 and a half. I think it’s up to 68 and a half now. Um, but I took over 63 and a half rushing yards

for Jim Connor earlier this week. He is the Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers who I’ve mentioned

is the worst rund in football dating back to last year. Travis ETN just ran for 143 last week. James Connor last

year underratedly faced four different teams um that were bottom 10 against the run. And James Connor rushed for at

least 100 yards in all four of those games. They’re a six and a half point favorite. So if there is a chance they’re up, they’re going to run the

ball anyway. Take advantage, run down the Panthers D. Um, the only problem that we’d have with this is if it is a

close game. John Murray said that the Panthers are in need for their book at the Super Bowl. So maybe this game’s

closer, but James Connor should be able to run the football well against the Panthers. Um, but if you don’t like

that, then Jier Gibbs would be my second favorite over 67 and a half rushing yards. He’s also getting a Bears defense

that I don’t trust yet against the run either. They looked good last week against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones,

but we know that the Lions backfield is way more versatile and way faster than those two running backs. The Bears

allowed the second most rushing yards per game to running backs last year. So, I would take advantage of those two

running back props. Um, you can’t get the Travis Kelce number anymore at 53 and a half. It’s now 49 a half. Um, and

then I mentioned I think Joe Black has to throw the football a lot today at Mnt Bank Stadium. That is a very high pass

attempt total. 37 and 1/2 38 and 1/2. So those are like my top four props for

today. Um I probably could give you a fifth. I just have to go look at the

newsletter again to remember exactly what I gave out. Um I’ve also been

having some technical difficulties on my end on my computer today. Um

let’s see a fifth prop. And we’ve got Premier Lacrosse Championships by the way coming up in a half hour. So, if you

want a PLL play, Jared Burnernhard over two and a half points. He had four

points in the game-winning goal in overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlas are strong against the

attack, whereas Burnernhard runs out of the box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. Um, he had 37 touches and

nine shots, which was a season high in their last matchup. So, Gerard Burnernhard over two and a half points

in Premier lacrosse. Um, a few other plays in the NFL today. Cole KT under 19

and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch for 31 yards last week. We had the over on his longest reception that

cashed. But the Bears, they drafted Coloulson Loveland and he had two catches on two targets for 12 yards last

week. Kind of getting his feet wet. But now you’re getting a Lions D that allowed the third least receptions and

third least receiving yards per game to tight ends. Only 37% of tight ends went over their receiving yard prop last year

against Detroit. Um, I think Cole Kat takes a step back this week. So, I would

say under on his receiving yards. Darnell Mooney is a sleeperish play slash a little risky solely because he

missed week one with the shoulder injury. He should be playing today. Mooney had the most 20 plus yard catches

for the Falcons last year. He had 21. The next best was Drake London with 12. So, Darnell Mooney is your deep threat

in Atlanta. The Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers and second most receiving yards per game

to them. Do I trust the amount of touches? Do I trust the amount of targets that Darnold Mooney will get in

his first game of the year? No. But I do trust that there’s going to be a deep ball thrown to him. And against the

secondary, which is more vulnerable than their pass rush in Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over 19 and a half yards for his

longest reception is another play that I would take a close look at today. That’s it for us here on Last Call on Wager

Talk. I’m the prop queen, Ariel Epstein. Thanks so much for tuning in. We’ll see you guys next week. Good luck to those

bets.

Packers Emerge as NFC Favorites, NFL Week 2 Betting Lines & Market Reactions

Urban City Podcast Group — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 22:45:29 +0000

Urban City Podcast Group

00:00

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Major Takeaways:

The Green Bay Packers’ impressive 2-0 start, fueled by a stout defense and efficient play from Jordan Love, has made them the new betting favorite to win the NFC.
Significant adjustments were made in the market’s power ratings, most notably a major downgrade for the San Francisco 49ers without Brock Purdy, making them a potential value side.
Early betting action shows lopsided handle on several games, with the New England Patriots getting the points against the Miami Dolphins as the most heavily bet side of the week

Packers Emerge as NFC Favorites, NFL Week 2 Betting Lines & Market Reactions

This is money moves on VSIN the sports betting network.

We are locked and local on a football Friday here on Money Moves. Stormmy Bon

and Tony, Jonathan Vontova with you live from downtown Las Vegas. Circa Resort and Casino. Big show on deck. We’ll get

into some of the market reaction from the Packers win last night as week two of the NFL season is officially

underway. A big college football weekend also got started last night and will carry over. But let’s get this thing

started like we always do. Producer Brian Ortega, time to run it down. It’s time for the top headlines and

topics of the day. This is the rundown. All right, JBT. Top items on deck as we

head into the weekend. Starting with some great guests in 30 minutes. We’ll get top plays from VO’s own Will Hill. Then in hour two, VO senior editor Zack

Cohen stopping by with some NFL and college football as well as Arash Marcazi of the Sporting Tribune in

addition to all of our football talk tonight. Big fight weekend coming up Saturday here in Vegas. Yeah. I mean, so

I’m curious. You don’t have to say yes. If you’re not, are you going to watch the fight? Um Oh, no. You’re working. Let me rephrase

this. If you weren’t, would you would you? Because one of the things that I am like, I’m now down, especially with this

new UFC model coming in, like I like mixed martial arts a little bit, actually, a lot more than I do enjoy boxing. But the fact that this is now so

much more accessible, I already have my Netflix sub. Let’s go. I’ll watch it. I’ll throw it on. I’m I’m excited. I cannot wait. So, yes, Brain Part, you’re

going to be on the sideline for it. Uh, but I am very much looking forward to this fight and I’m actually looking forward to if boxing continues to do

this watching more fights. Well, and I was gonna say it’s been a while since I’ve watched just a pure boxing match. So, I’m excited. There’s

name value, it’s accessibility, it’s all of that stuff. So, that’ll be fun to get into with Arash later on in hour two of the program. Uh, that again is happening

right here at Allegiance Stadium. Well, cuz I even threw you for a loop cuz I was like, are you going to watch it?

You’re like, it’s a little, you know, a little crossover. Uh, we will also get into streaming on your phone. our best bets

of the weekend and cementing our contest selections. We are in Circumillions, Circus Survivor. You’ve got the college

football contest at the Westgate. So, lots of finalization to happen today. Put the college picks in this morning.

And yes, we need to solidify. I think we’re pretty close to solidifying our five in the millions, but we need to

lock down today and I’m going to press you on is what we’re going to use for Survivor. And I’m nervous. I have a lot of anxiety.

But let’s before we look forward react to last night, Thursday Night Football. last night at Lambeau Field and as Bill

AD headlined the V daily newsletter this morning. The pack is back. Green Bay haven’t heard that one

beats the commanders 27 to8 covers the three and a half. Total stays under any number and the final score I don’t even

think was as indicative as decisive a win as this was for Green Bay last night. Never in doubt really from the

opening drive. It felt like it goes back to what were we talking about? Was it Monday or after Monday? I mean these games are stupid. They’re b

watch the fourth quarter. that the fact that statistically that was such a a rear end whooping for the Green Bay

Packers and yet you look up in the fourth and you’re like, “Oh, it’s 17-10 and this could be something here if we’re if we’re like you got to kind of

sit up.” So, uh but Green Bay was really impressive and uh I will give two-time owner of the the Green Bay Packers,

Brian Ortega, who did not wait the second he walked into the studio. I was going to offer this. I think I owe a

mayopa. I didn’t think the Packers were going to be bad, but I have questioned whether or not Jordan Love was going to be particularly good. Uh, putting the

ball in danger was one of the things that I referenced quite a bit, especially from last year. My man’s been slinging it through the first two weeks

of the season. Now, there’s a couple of throws and a couple of touchdowns that he left on the table that if he actually completes those, we’re probably talking

about a snoozer last night, but it’s been pretty impressive to watch Love operate this offense. um now healthy and

after what we saw from last year this looks like dare we say the best team in

the NFC North and they are being priced as such when you look in the market right now let’s

first go to Jordan Love who you mentioned a great night 19 to 31 292 pass yards two touchdowns no picks that

extends his no interception streak by the way to nine games now dating back to last season he is the third shot on the

board for MVP was 20 to1 preseason 12 to1 after week 1 now 7 to1 behind only

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. And as we go to the NFC here, standalone favorites. Green Bay is at 3 to1 to win

the NFC. They are minus 165 favorites to win the NFC North. Yeah, and I think it’s all pretty apt

and obviously it has to do with what you’ve seen from this team or excuse me where they’re at. They’ve played a second game. They’re 2 and 0 amongst

some other teams. But the thing that really sticks out when you watch them is outside of love defensively they seem

legitimately strong. I mean, you had Micah Parsons in the over the quarter sack and he got there with the half

sack. You by the way, sorry, real quickly, I’m glad that we mentioned a couple of times yesterday the difference between that

prop being a quarter sack and a half sack because different books do it differently and that ended up coming into play with Parsons. Go ahead.

Yes. Um, but just that, you know, yesterday I had talked about Edin Cooper and the fact that he had been one of

these dudes that had been really taking a step forward. He again plays a large snapload. comes out with I think 10 or

11 tackles and uh looks really strong there. Even came away with half a sack as well. This front seven looks

legitimately good. Almost every part of this team looks really strong. And I mean I mentioned the best in the NFC

North depending on whether or not the Eagles figure out what’s going on with that second corner spot. You can make a pretty strong argument this team could

be after two weeks the best team in the NFC. No doubt about and again they are the favorites in the NFC now all of a

sudden. And be I want to go a little bit deeper on this defense because particularly against the run, how stout

this group has been through two weeks now. So Washington last night trying to run the football 19 carries for 51

yards, 2.7 yards per carry. And then pair that with what we saw against

Detroit last week and that’s Jir Gibbs and David Montgomery coming at you. 22 carries for 46 yards. So in all giving

up less than 250 total yards both games. um two wins over teams, mind you, as

well that were 12 plus win teams a season ago that were both top five in the NFL last year in points per game.

The Lions average 33.2 points per game, Commanders 28 and a half. They combined to score just 31 points on this team.

That defense looks real. And if you are getting that play to your point out of Jordan Love throughout and he stays

healthy and I know obviously the Jaden Reed injury is going to play a role in that, but they’ve got some other secondary guys like we were talking

about with Brian coming in. Could a Matthew Golden start to rise? Is their best patch pass catcher just going to be Tucker Craft because of what he’s doing

in the tight end room over 100 yards for him? He’s had touchdowns backto-back games. If this offense can operate at

just a a decent if not elevated level and have an elite defense behind them, they are a serious contender. Uh,

absolutely. I was trying to find what’s going to be interesting and uh we’ll see if I can grab the odds for it or if we

can find them because they are down now. I think they have a real shot at that last undefeated team.

So, they’re 2 and 0 right now. You look at the way their schedule breaks down. Depending on what you think of Cincinnati, who they get at home after

their buy, you’re looking at Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina up until November 10th in

Philadelphia. I I don’t think it would be astonishing if this team still has the O in their loss column by the time

they get there. We’ll see what happens with Cincinnati, but as we know, they have their issues defensively. They look like they have a very strong path, a

very likely path to being the last undefeated team or at least having a very strong record through eight games

by the time they go take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. just out of curiosity because I my one

of my early thoughts watching this game was okay maybe did I downgrade the Lions too much coming out of week one after

facing this team like what if the Packers are just that good so then you’ve got the Lions taking on the Bears this week and is that line getting out

to six actually may be a little bit more appropriate now based on what this team actually could be I don’t know and maybe

that’s this is just a more of a wait and see game than I initially thought after last night two things to be true at once though right which is, hey, maybe the Lions are

that bad and maybe the Packers are this good. Maybe they both deserve to be altered in terms of their ranking coming

off of that game. Uh, we will see if that’s going to be the case, too, as we we get a pretty good match up between the Bears and the Lions on Sunday. But I

I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s binary one or the other. I think this could be one of those situations where we could have a scenario where both things are

actually the truth. And I mentioned six, according to that graphic at DraftKings, we’re up to the six and a half right now. Um, a couple

other market movers just to let you know. Um Parsons, his odds shortened in

defensive player of the year to plus 475. And we mentioned the MVP odds for Love. Jaden Daniels, uh Love is in that

third spot now. Daniels was in the third spot. He’s now seventh on the board at 12 to1. Um I mentioned the Jaden Reed

fraction fractured collar bone. He’s expected to miss six to eight weeks, but the big injury for Washington, Austin

Eckler going down looks like a season ending Achilles. and they let Brian Robinson go to San Francisco because

they felt so confident in that room and the depth they had. Well, that depth is being tested right out the gates now. Yeah, that’s And I thought too, let me

double check this because I want to see if I have this down. There was a lot of, you know, we come out of the preeason,

off seasonason, and we talk about some of these um hey man, really excited for certain guys, their roles in some of

these games, what it’s going to look like. Uh, Bill, right? Bill Crosky Merritt. Bill Crosky Merritt still had in

totality fewer snaps than Austin Eckler. So, I was somewhat surprised because I thought this was supposed to be it. And

and so Eckler now getting injured. I’m going to be curious to see if Krosky Merritt’s going to get that full work

workload. One would assume that is the case, but we thought that coming out that this is going to be a larger workload. And for a couple of games now,

it looked like that wasn’t it. So now it seems from a fantasy standpoint, player prop standpoint, what some of the adjustments are going to be for Krosky

Meritt now that Eckler’s down. It’s going to be one of the more interesting storylines going into week three. Yeah. And he was one of the most bet props yesterday over depending the

number anywhere from 37 and a half to 39 and a half yards. Ended up just having four carries and 17 yards on the ground.

Also last night in college football JVT I said if there was a bet I liked at NC State Wake Forest it would have been the

over because of how I rate NC State’s defense but like so the total ends up

going over. I’m sad I didn’t bet it. Um Wake Forest was covering the plus seven and a half for like 55 minutes of this

game. do not score in the second half. NC State kicks a late field goal, ends up

winning the game by 10. But we were texting back and forth about NC State’s defense. Like maybe we’re just needing

to target overs on this team or team total overs on the other side. Whatever it is, because that defense is brutal.

It was bad. I mean, so they give up the it was the kickoff return for the touchdown. Correct. Like right right away.

Down 14 nothing right away. Yeah. And then and then you give up the seven play 93 yard drive. And when we talked about this game yesterday, we had

referenced this in we were talking about the Virginia game where they had given up explosive plays, explosive runs, and

that looked like it was going to be an issue for NC State. And you saw some of that, but in totality for Wake Forest,

still the numbers don’t really add up for them. Only 12 first downs in the game, 7.2 yards per pass, fewer than

three yards per rush. So this was, man, there was quite a few of folks feeling

really good about Wake Forest when they were up 14 nothing. you and I text and then all of a sudden you blink and NC

State is driving away with this thing. So, it was a pretty um pretty interesting affair, but I think you put a little pin in the fact that NC State

defensively has had some really big black marks on their resume and they go to Duke coming up next week. Yeah, Wake Out scored 17 nothing in the

second half of that one. And too bad there wasn’t a yes no prop on will there be a food truck fire because all of the

smoke coming over. Kudos to the cook inside the truck. Did you see it? He’s got the the extinguisher thing. make it.

I would have been out. You just would have left the whole truck burn down. Run away. Run away. I

get an idea of how you work in a panic. Yeah. Not great self-defense or whatever. And what’s the problem? Fight or flight. Fight or flight. It ain’t me. Uh coming

up on Money Moves, JBT is taking us through his updated NFL market power ratings. And we’ll have some more college football a little later. We’ll

be right back.

You’re watching Money Moves here on Vin. The Sports Betting Network.

[Music] [Applause] We’re rolling along on this football

Friday edition of Money Moves Beast in the Sports Betting Network. He’s Jonathan Vonto. I’m Story Bon and Tony.

You can’t hit me with like things that make me laugh right before we come. I’m trying to be a professional and you got

me giggling. I hear the control room giggling. I’m doing my job and looking up, you know, metrics and statistics and and

breaking down EPA by formula. No, I’m not. Um, but I just I wasn’t really listening to you guys and I just hear

what was it? Stars of Mormon what? The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And

you guys were talking about Dancing with the Stars. And so then I snapped at you and I was like, you get so mad at me

about the Eurob basket stuff. How do you have time to watch these things? I don’t watch them. Then how do you know?

I get Tik Tok updates. That’s ridiculous. I don’t believe that at all. I don’t watch them. You have legitimate excitement about

Dancing with the Stars. the only reality TV cuz I like Tanga from Boy Meets World. Who doesn’t? You do. You are of

my age range. There’s no way you don’t know Boy Meets World. I have not watched a second of Boy Meets World in my life. I kumba. Okay. On to bigger

Secret Life of Alex Mack. On to bigger but potentially not better things. Um the NFL explains it all. Does

that Yeah. How’s that? It’s a good reference. Wow. That’s a throwback. I honestly like that is a show that

escaped my mind altogether. But look it up because what a just unlocked the memory. Time to get into some NFL, don’t you watch that girl

stuff? Like, I mean, it was on and I was like, “All right, I have an older sister.” But that’s why I don’t get the boy meets world thing. Anyways, we got week two

market power ratings you put together. You really did do a lot of work on this. So, I do want to give you your flowers.

You do this each and every week. Uh, for someone who has not seen your market power ratings, can you give a brief explanation off the top? Uh, again, I will always shout out Jeff

Fogle, former employee here, uh, who does a great newsletter if you want to check that out, too, but taught me how to do this many, many years ago. And I

think it’s a really fun Google exercise. This is in in basic format. It is what the betting market thinks of these

teams. It’s how it power rates these teams and you derive them from the current betting market where the lines

are right now. I have been using one and a half points for home field to find the difference in a neutral for these teams

according to the betting market and then you set the ratings up as such. So, there’s a couple of different ways to

use this and I think we have a really good example to use. Now, before the show started, I tried this example out

on you, and it did look like your eyes were moving in a lot of different directions. So, I hope I wasn’t like bloiating and and saying a lot of

different things. I was talking fast, but I think your team is a very good example of what we’re looking at here,

why we’re going to use these. So, let’s throw these up really quickly. Uh, again, basic power for a power ranking

or power rating standpoint, which is um, hey, all right, difference between the two numbers, that’s exactly what these

teams would be on a neutral. So, the quick example, Ravens will be a two-point favorite over the Bills on a neutral according to the market power ratings for this week. So, let’s direct

your eyes if you’re watching up on YouTube TV. Why wouldn’t you be? Or von.com. Why wouldn’t you be? Go to vast.com/subscribe. Check it out for

If you’re not right now, go back later. You can always check it out on demand. There we go. Promote, promote, promote. Uh, if you direct your eyes, and for our

radio audience, I will describe it to you. The 49ers without Brock Pery fall on the 78 12 line. Now, why this

matters, and if we could keep this up, please while I’m talking about this, why this matters is again the 49ers and the

Saints are pairs this week. They’re playing each other. The difference between the two on a neutral field

because the market is at three would be 4 and a half because we’re using one and a half for home field. So, you have to

have a 4 and 1/2 point difference between these two. So, in other words, if you wanted to move the 49ers up, that

means you got to move the Saints up as well. And from a power rating standpoint, it would make no sense to

have the Saints as equals with the Panthers, as equals or excuse me, two points or a point worse than the Giants.

In fact, Storm, if you go back to last week, I had to upgrade the Saints because if I were to use the Saints at

72, which they were last week, clearly the worst team in the NFL, that would put the 49ers on that 76 12 line, which

would make them worse than the Giants and the Titans, just a little bit better than the Panthers. And again, this is the 49ers without Brock Pury. You can

see the market downgrade here. And I think it’s one that’s very clearly, as I’ve kind of been making the case, I

don’t know, man. It seems like a pretty strong adjustment with what we’ve seen with this 49ers team to make them these

short favorites on the road against New Orleans. And here we have a visual example of how far they have potentially fallen. And so with that, does that mean you

feel like you need to bet the 49ers this week? Because the number is three. Granted, it’s on the road, but then even

when you take some of the extraneous factors and like your personal opinion on M. Jones, you don’t feel like it’s

that significant of a downgrade from Brock Party. So that then impacts your opinion in a different way as well. So,

are you ultimately going to fire on the 49ers or are we going to have them as a contest play? Yeah, I think that they should. Um, I

don’t want to put you through that. So, I don’t think we’ll use it in the millions, but that that’ll be a side for

me this coming weekend with the San Francisco 49ers. And this is really what it is. You know, you you use these market ratings, you know, you have your

own numbers, but that’s essentially what you’re doing all the time, right? You have your own ratings, you make your own numbers, you look in comparison with the market. This is just a different version

of doing that when you’re talking about make part power ratings from the market, but it does give you a visual sense of

where these teams stand. Um, there’s a couple of interesting dynamics that you thought that you were highlighting. What do you got?

So, I was going to say another one that we were talking about before we came on was where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit. If you want to walk uh the audience

through that. All right. So, Bucks are taking on the Texans uh Monday night. That is the first of the double header. They are two

and a half point dogs. Simple math. Two and a half minus one and a half. That gives you one. Texans are a point better according to the betting market if we’re

using one and a half for home field this coming week. That of course is right here. You see it in the rankings if you

would direct your eyes to the 82 83 mark right there. Texans are on the 83 line. Buccaneers are on the 82 line. There’s a

point difference. The reason why that matters is from our market power ratings last week. The Buccaneers actually rated

out as a half point better than the Houston Texans. So when you put this together, there’s going to be some

volatility. There’s going to be a change from week to week. But this is where you find a little bit of the inconsistencies. We’ve discussed this.

Now, what’s going to be interesting is we see a couple of two and a halfs out there shaded to the favorite side. So, I

wonder if this is going to get to three. But this all leads me to something that we had discussed, which is I think the Bucks are the play. You know, we can

talk about the intricacies of the matchups. The fact that this offensive line for Houston isn’t particularly great, the fact that the Bucks have a

good interior presence that can go after a soft interior for an offensive line that’s missing center. All of these things. But from a number standpoint, I

think these two teams are at worst equals with each other, which would put you at one and a half. Or I think you

can make the argument the Bucks, they were rightly ranked last week in these power ratings where they were just

slightly better than the Texans. And so to me, it would be the Buccaneers. I would also say, and I like the two and

a half, we talked about it yesterday. I I even think that they can just win this game outright plus 115 on the money line

here. But I think if nothing else, this is a great teaser. like bring that two and a half up to the 8 and a half in

Houston in what we anticipate could be a lower scoring game with how good the Texans defense is. Total 42 and a half

in this one. I really like bringing that up. Yeah. Can I point out one to you too as well that’s pretty interesting. Um how

about the the Chargers? Chargers, if you go back to last week, we know that the Chiefs were about three-point favorites

on a neutral field. So, that was pretty simple. Chiefs were on the 86 line, Chargers on the 83 line. This week,

Chargers and Chiefs because of adjustments are now together. Yep. They are now equals with one another and in

in a vacuum. Like, doesn’t that make sense? If I were to ask you, hey, what were you going to do after last week if we thought that the Chargers were three

points worse? Do you make them better than the Chiefs? Ah, maybe not. Especially with all the injuries and everything, but at the very least, they

should be equals with one another. And sure enough, here we are, Chargers and Chiefs together. And you see that, too. The Chiefs are taking on the Eagles. You

see the two-point difference there. They’re about one point favorites. The Eagles are on a neutral. That puts you at about two and a half. I was using one

as the number I was calculating with or excuse me. Yeah. So, and we’re floating around that range, right? Right now,

Philly’s like a one-point favorite. They’re a pick. So, you’re floating around that two-point difference on a neutral between these two. So, it’s just

a really good barometer. It’s a good way to visualize what you’re doing instead of just making numbers. You can compare and contrast with your own thoughts as

opposed to just cranking out power ratings as well. But, it’s I think it’s a fun thing to do and it’s fun to see

where these teams fall. You know, another good upgrade, for example, last week the Cleveland Browns. Browns were

on the 75 and a half mark or the 75 and a half line, you know, from a power rating standpoint. I think they got

upgraded to what 78. Yeah. So, like they’ve been upgraded. I think that makes some sense, right? After what we saw, probably should have won a game

against the Cincinnati Bengals. And then their adversary from last week, the Cincinnati Bengals, who were initially

on the 82 line, they don’t really budge. They sit there at the 82, but you bring the Browns up and um they’re a team,

too, among some others. Colts got upgraded. They’re at the 80.5 mark. Last week the Colts were floating around

equals with the Dolphins and actually no they’re at the 78 and a half line against the Dolphins. So I think it’s a

really good exercise man again and we can just give some visualization to where we’re at with some of these teams

and the question becomes with some of them you know for New Orleans to go back to the game we opened up with. Should they be upgraded? Should some of these

teams be where they’re at? Should they be lowered? And if those questions if you have questions to those then you act accordingly with some of the market

lines that we’re seeing. Well, and I think it’s just interesting, too, like looking at some teams in comparison to each other, even if they’re not playing

each other. Like the are are the Bengals that much better than the Colts right now, like that just based on at least

like the oneweek sample size. A handful of these though go hand inand of is this team actually that much better than

another? Sure. I mean, the one the one two um we’re talking about this, the Lions and the Chicago Bears. The Lions are getting

bet up in the market right now. Um do the Lions deserve to be rated as high

now? Now, it’s only one data point, but after what we saw against the Green Bay Packers, because right now they’re still

in that 83 1/2 84 line, if you see it right here, equals with the Chargers, the Chiefs, the Rams, still floating in

that kind of direction. Um, and I think you can make the argument that the gap between the two, the Chicago Bears and

the Detroit Lions probably should be a little bit tighter by my own measure. Well, and that’s why but to your point though about like these market

reactions, it is only a one data point sample size that we have at this point. So, we need to see what that looks like more. That’s why I asked the question

when we opened the show about now how good we see the Green Bay Packers are with against two opponents that last

year were so great. Are we maybe with the Lions? Did we move them down too

much mentally after what we saw against Green Bay when Green Bay is actually just really good. But to your point, two things can be true and we’ll see how

that plays out. We do have to take a timeout here, but remember as you head into the weekend, Broco has you covered.

You can use the code VSON to load up your account with a $50 deposit match up to 100 bucks. Then take advantage of monthly cashback style rewards that pay

you whether you win or lose. Maximize your bankroll at brocoplayco.com today. Coming up on Money Moves, V’s own Will

Hill joins the program. Why he thinks getting points in Sunday’s Super Bowl

rematch will happen. Take the over. We’ll be right back. You’re watching Money Moves here on Ven

the Sports Betting Network. [Applause]

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Storm Bon and JVT with you. Speaking of those betting splits, looking at the Jets and Bills right now on DraftKings,

while 31% of the bets are coming in on the Jets taking the points, 70% of the

money, wonder if any of that has to do with the news this morning that Bill’s defensive lineman Ed Oliver, uh, who had

a sack and forced fumble in week one, officially ruled out already for the game coming up on Sunday. Yeah, I think with him officially out, I

grabbed six and a half, so I’ll add it to the ledger for, uh, the New York Jets. um second straight week back in

them. But I think that’s look with that Oliver, your premier runs stopping threat along defensive line. You still

got gouged and now you get this pretty threatening rushing attack um that comes from that Ben Johnson tree where Justin

Fields looked pretty threatening against the Pittsburgh Steelers overall pretty tall and this running game looked pretty good. And I don’t know if this is a

Bills team that is going to be amongst the best run defenses in the NFL. I think that bodess well for the Jets. So

I think it’s worth coming in with this news to grab six and a half. I don’t think it’ll move. So that but that was enough for me. So let’s go Jets. Yeah, Oliver, I guess, got stepped on,

had his foot in a walking boot, and was rolling around on a scooter at practice yesterday. To talk through some more NFL

sides, totals, best bets coming up this weekend. Excited to welcome in our good buddy Will Hill on the progressive guest

line. Von Prime Time, the should have bet more podcast. You can download and subscribe wherever you get your podcast. Great guest today. X not the Will Hill.

Yes, can confirm. And uh Will, let’s get into it because one game I know you have your eyes on is one of the biggest games

of the week, the Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and Eagles. You think there’s going to be points. Why?

I do. And uh good to see you guys. Thanks for having me. I I like over 46 and a half. Uh I thought watching both

teams last week, the Chiefs and the Eagles, I thought both teams had major issues defending the pass. A lot of guys

wide open, just running free in the secondary. Chiefs allowed six and a half yards per play to the Chargers. Herbert

three touchdowns, 300 yards, only ninecomp completions, no picks. And it looked like when he dropped back to pass, he had his choice of guys to

choose from. I don’t think that Kansas City has been elite defensively since a couple years ago when they brought when

they beat, and sorry to bring up painful memories that year. They beat the 49ers in overtime in Super Bowl. I thought they were really good defensively that

year. I don’t think they’ve been that year for a while. They’re shaky against the pass. And Philly, their numbers were

not bad in week one, but you could tell it’s not the same defense as last year. They’ve replaced a lot of guys. They’ve lost a lot of guys. And their stats

would be much worse if CD Lamb who dropped, you know, basically seven 10 points worth of drops last week. If he

could just catch a ball, those numbers are different. So you look at the two Super Bowls, it was 44-20, it was 3835.

I know that’s, you know, it’s a few years ago and there’s some defensive scoring there to inflate that. But I just think, and I always give out Bills

Chiefs over when they those two teams play because I think both teams go in, I think it’s similar here. Both teams go in saying, “All right, we got to score.

You know, we’ve got an MVP candidate at quarterback. We maybe have a shaky defense. We got to be aggressive. We got to go for it on fourth down. And again,

I don’t really like either defense. I wish that I had my weapons if I’m the Chiefs. No Rice. I don’t think Worthy’s

going to play. I think it’s more of a decoy him at practice, but who knows? Uh, so to me, the 46 and a half is

pretty low. I think 47 there is a key number. I think this one goes over here. And uh as far as the side kind of back

and forth, I just I can’t lay points even if it’s a point, you know, singular point and a half against Mahomes. It’s

hard to picture the Chiefs 0 and2. I I guess it’s possible. It certainly is possible, but I like the over more than

anything. All right, let’s go to another matchup. Um I’m laughing because I can’t believe I’m about to say this sentence after

watching this last week of football. What do you make of the Falcons taking on NFC offensive player of the year, JJ

or excuse me, of the week, JJ McCarthy? No, I think you had it right the first time. offensive player of the year, MVP.

So, you just uh just keep going. Yeah, that that was a weird one. Uh look, I I like the Falcons here. I think

that you if you just if you froze time at the end of the third quarter, I think we’re looking at like a one or a

two-point line. Obviously, you got to include the fourth quarter. You can’t dirty the data and take out things that happen. But they were very conservative

with McCarthy. And if you just look at Minnesota since the beginning of last year, and it’s hard to believe, 15 and

three in the regular season, that’s really remarkable. But that being said, uh, nine of those 15 wins are by one

score. They really don’t blow you out. It’s a lot of field goal wins. The three and a half to me is obviously a very key

number. And one of their blowout wins last year was against Atlanta, but if you dive deeper into uh that stat sheet,

Atlanta had over 70 yards per play. Atlanta had 500 yards of offense. It was 42-21, but Atlanta was minus three in

turnovers. That game just got away from that. Was at the point where Cousins started to unravel, started to kind of

decay. They moved the ball up and down the field. So, I think Atlanta could have easily won last week against Tampa.

They dropped some interceptions. You know, there’s some fourth down stuff. Minnesota could have easily lost. And u you know, our buddy Steve Fez who comes

on this network a lot has talked about this too. The angle of 0 and one teams against one and0 teams. You’re hungrier.

You need it more. Throw in the fact that you’re getting points. I think Atlanta’s the right side here. And Will, you did get some good news for

the Falcons, too. Drake London and Darnell Mooney. No injury designations for Sunday. So, both will play there as

well. Um, you were also looking at this Titans Rams game. Both kind of had a little bit weird week one openers. So,

where are you ultimately placing your money coming up on Sunday? Yes, the, as people who listen to this

network know, I have a very toxic relationship with the Tennessee Titans. And that toxic relationship is going to

continue this week. I’m taking them again. They killed me last year. I kept batting them. I just think they come into this year inherently underrated

because what killed them last year was Levvice and horrible special teams.

Special teams, you know, that can be year-toear that can you figure get better. And uh Ward looked okay. That

was a tough assignment in Denver. The elevation, really good defense. He was okay. He had his moments. I think that

the coach didn’t help him out. Drops didn’t help him out. I think he’ll be more comfortable at home. Uh we’ll see how Stafford holds up here after missing

the preseason a week after getting beat up and hit a little bit from the Texans. I just think five and a half is a little bit high. I think it’ll be close. I

think it’ll be low scoring kind of points in a premium type of game. You know, 20 to 17, that kind of game. I

think that five and a half is a lot here. So, I will once again, unfortunately, go back to the well and be betting the Tennessee Titans. Famous

last words for me. All right, Stormmy brought this up the other day and I think the general premise is right. I just don’t know if

the time is right, but you’re on the same page. Jackson Dart to win offensive rookie of the year.

I think his time is coming sooner rather than later. Maybe it’s next week. Who knows? Maybe it’s 21 nothing Cowboys at

half and we see him in the second half and and and who knows. I just think bet this before the announcement is made

because I think even just the announcement of oh Dart Dart’s going to start next week as quarterback. I think that moves the number and moves it

pretty significantly. So I’m just trying to get ahead of that. He’s a quarterback. This award is biased towards quarterbacks. He plays for the

New York Giants. That matters. The market matters. We’ve seen this. Remember uh I’m sure you remember JVT Tibido a few years ago in the NBA for

coach of the year. It was a close race. He got it. Uh, you know, Brian Dable won a close race a few years ago. I think I do think it helps to be in the New York

market and uh, I just think right position, right market, get ahead of the number. It’s not like Ward was great

last week. Genty didn’t do a ton. It’s a pretty wide openen rookie of the year race. So, I just think get ahead of the number. It’s going to be Dart’s team

sooner rather than later, we would think here, barring some resurgence from Wilson. So, I just think that’s the angle with it.

Yeah. To add to that, two of them. First off, Tibido won that. He had more second place votes or he didn’t have as many first place votes, but had more second

place votes than money Williams and he won that. the other to Will’s point, Stormy. Um, when Paul Skins, Paul Ske

before he got called up to win NL rookie of the year was 30 to1 and then he got called up didn’t didn’t pitch a single

pitch in Major League Baseball and those odds got cut in half the second he got called up. No, it’s it’s and it will it’s a good point by you because if if this ends up

being the end of the rope for Russell Wilson, you think he’s comes in sooner rather than later if it’s that bad and the offensive line doesn’t appear to be

getting much better. Andrew Thomas, by the way, still listed as doubtful for Sunday. That coming out about 10 minutes ago from Mike Gafolo. Keep that in mind.

And again, 22 to1 a good price on Jackson Dart right now. Last couple minutes, let’s go to college football

because we we all know about Diego Pavia as a dog and the success he has had. You were rolling with taking the points at

South Carolina, too. Yeah, I wrote this up for Fox Sports on Tuesday when it was five and a half. I

think we’re down to mostly threes. I still think it’s the right side. Uh very rarely this early in the season do you

have a common data point when these teams have only played a couple games and that’s a dangerous game to play as a better as we know. But, uh, both these

teams, Vandy and South Carolina, both played Virginia Tech. Uh, Vandy beat the hell out of Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech

team I actually liked last week. They outgainained them by 230 or so yards.

Uh, at Virginia Tech and won the second half 34 nothing. Meanwhile, South Carolina on a neutral field against

Virginia Tech played a game at least in the stat sheets that was kind of a coin flip. They got outgained. I know they had a punt returning, kind of pulled

away late, but I just I I love this South Carolina team last year, but a reason I a big reason I loved them was

their defense. And that defense lost three of the top 49 draft picks. They lost five guys to the NFL uh total. I

don’t think it’s the same South Carolina team. I think they’re a little bit overhyped. Uh so I will take Vandy and uh Diego here who’s just been a underdog

better’s dream. Like you said, eight-2 against the spread, four-0 on the road as a dog, a bunch of outright upsets.

So, even though the numbers moved here, I would only look towards Vandy. Yeah. Oh, sorry. I didn’t really No, no, I was

just there’s not enough time. I was going to ask about baseball. I got lost. I got lost. It’s okay. Ah, you want to spit out a play for

baseball real quick? 30 seconds. Go. Under seven and a half. Deg Grom against the Mets. Wouldn’t it be fitting Deg

Grom to pitch in a one- nothing game in that building where he’s pitching like a million two to one nothing games. That will be fun. With all of the football

going on, I had kind of lost track the fact that’s a huge series too. Mets and Rangers. Deg Grom back at City Field.

That’ll be fun to watch tonight. I think it’s more fitting if he loses one- nothing. It’s absolutely

nailed it, Will. Thank you as always, Will Hill. Everybody, follow him on X, not the Willilh Hill. Check him out live

bet Saturday coming up this weekend as well. Coming up after the break, we wrap up hour one going game byame through the

NFL slate. You might be surprised to learn what the most lopsided game of the week is so far. I know I was. We’ll be

right back. [Applause] [Music]

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Alongside Jonathan Vonto, Stormy Bon and Tony with you back here on this football Friday edition of Money Moves. And I had

the tease at the end of last segment talking about the most lopsided in terms

of handle team that is being bet this week and I was very surprised by it. Ben Fox over at YouTube uh over at Yahoo

rather posts a lot of the sportsbook data every day every week. 87%

of the money the most the most bet side the Patriots plus the points at Miami.

Does that surprise you though? Really? Um,

no. I mean, I guess the degree to which like, you know, 87% if that’s an accurate number, but we talked about

Miami’s injuries and how bad it’s gone for them and how it looks like it’s falling apart. I guess I’ll say yes,

it’s surprising that they are number one cuz it’s like with a dot, right? Like they’re like clearly number one. Yes. So, I guess the degree to which they are

bet, but I don’t think it’s like stunning that maybe they would find their way near the top of this list. But they’ve good. So, I mean, it doesn’t

surprise me that people want to fade Miami based on how they looked last week and the injuries to your point, but

knowing what you have told me about how closely you watch that Raiders Patriots game and how terrible you thought New

England played that then we want to go. I feel like, okay, I want to pause you for I feel like every time you bring up

how closely I watch this game, my my analysis of has gotten more extreme like every time you brought it up. The first

time you’re like, “Oh, you told me they were bad and now we’ve reached you thought they were terrible.” like, yeah, they weren’t they weren’t good.

It was bad. It was bad. Well, to your point, to add to what you’re saying here, um I don’t think Christian Gonzalez is playing for New

England, so like that’s going to be something that’s worth looking at potentially. Um look, this is one where

um we’ll have best bets later. I think the Patriots are a perfectly fine teaser leg. This doesn’t look like it’s going

to be a relatively highscoring game, but also to express some shock, I think historically early season Miami games

have not gone well for the New England Patriots. So that’s going to be something uh with that sun beaten down. We know how these you know early season

Miami is akin to early season Denver and that when you played those games you a little bit behind the eightball. Denver

because of the inherent home field of playing in thin air. Miami because of the heat that teams maybe aren’t used to playing football in. So that’s also

somewhat surprising as well that there would be in in a game that’s not really been on a key number at all. Not really. It hasn’t been. It should sit at one and

a half this whole time. Um it does your shock is warranted. I think the other most lopsided games uh again

this is all by handle specifically from bet MGM data but 83% of the handle on

the Eagles in that Super Bowl rematch at Kansas City 79% of handle on the Falcons

at Minnesota 77% laying the points with the Lions against the Bears and 76% with

the Cardinals who are laying that 6 and a half against the Carolina Panthers. So, those are the most lopsided handle

percentages going into week two. Shocking. Any of those surprise you? I think I mean I’m surprised Arizona

still I I’m just really surprised that the Patriots were the most lopsided. You mean what’s the number for Arizona?

Uh six and a half. No, I mean like the percent Yeah. Like that that does surprise me a little bit. I mean I understand the Carolina

Panthers didn’t really look great, but it’s not like the Cardinals rolled in there and just beat the crap out of the Saints and left. I think that was not

exactly a stellar performance for Arizona when you looked at what they did statistically giving up the four red

zone drives uh to the New Orleans Saints. The fact that they had more first downs New Orleans did that technically they outgainained them on a

yards per play basis outgainained them in total yards as well. That’s not a team that I watched and then this week

was like let’s lay six and a half baby I’m in. That’s not exactly a team that I’m confident in. Interestingly enough,

like I I haven’t really heard a lot of people talking about the the Lions and Cardinals for Survivor as much as I

thought that I would this week. We talked about with Arizona specifically, we wanted to use them last week because

there were going to be limited opportunities to use them and we do have a slightly higher rating on the Carolina Panthers than others. didn’t want to use

them in week two, but after how Carolina performed, I thought that I would hear more about Arizona this week. But I I

feel like that hasn’t been as popular in talking to most people, which I think is a good conversation for us now as we

want to kind of figure out and cement what we want to do with Survivor. Um the

Ravens, yes, we know do play on Thanksgiving, but they are the biggest favorite of the week. Taking on a

division opponent though in the Browns, who just went toe-to-toe with the Bengals. So, it depends on how you evaluate Cleveland really if you want to

go with the Baltimore Ravens, but I I feel like both of us are pretty like-minded. The Baltimore is going to win that game. They should win that game.

And uh going to let’s not have that go around. I’m sure there was a lot of they’re

going to win this game when they were up 15 with five minutes left or whatever it was. So, Yep. And for the people that were laying

that point point and a half. Yeah. Not feeling great. Um but I think Baltimore is one that we’ve gone back

and forth on a lot. The Rams were also a team that perked my ears a little bit

against the Titans, but I don’t know if I can get there. And then you know how high I am on the Dallas Cowboys this week as well against the Giants. Yeah, I

mean I I’ve not really been like too high on the Rams selection for the most part in using them on the road against

what I think is a little bit of an underrated defensive team in Tennessee because let’s let’s roll with the

premise that I’m wrong about Bo Nicks and I think that you know there was some fraudulence in his performance last year and then we get that week one

performance and there’s a point of evidence to to my case but what if Tennessee is just an abovea defensive

team. Now you’re playing back at home after the game against Denver. It’s not the best situation overall for LA. I

think the argument to use them here is okay, if you’re not going to use them here, where else would you use them? I

would circle week nine. Again, it’s not like the pure fate of New Orleans, but you do coming off of a buy, get to play host to New Orleans. That’s going to be

something that I think is a more beneficial spot to save LA for than using them here in a road game against a

team that I think has the potential, if things go right for them down the stretch of the season, could find themselves in the throws of a

divisional race. I think you’re you’re right on that and I I do to Will Hills point earlier in the program which by

the way if you missed any of the show you can always download Money Moves wherever you get your podcast listen to that conversation but how Matt Stafford

bounces back after his first game getting tossed around didn’t play at all during the preseason didn’t practice hardly at all either um what he is like

physically week two on the road with the long travel all that stuff so okay maybe we cross that one out so are you in

agreement with me that Dallas feels like the right side in that Giants game. Yeah, I think your top two your top two

choices in no particular order, I’ll go alphabetical order again, are Baltimore and Dallas, okay, to consider for using Survivor. U you

know, we mentioned the the metric for the scripted plays and expected points added in those plays. I showed you the

graphic. Our boy Shottenheimer was up there as the number one team uh number one coach in terms of scripted plays,

expected points added. So, he is going to be I think a team worth looking at. They were actually kind of up there too

in terms of expected points out of the non-scripted drives. And I think that’s where Dak Prescott comes in and really helps out. I think my worry here from a

matchup standpoint, you’re at home, so that does help. What does this offensive line look like against a very good

defensive line? Are we going to be watching this game and find them in a low-scoring slugfest because that t that

entire defensive line remember we on Monday we talked about that game against Washington and the one thing that stuck out when we had brought it up was of the

top five graded defenders by PFF metrics four of them were defensive linemen for the New York Giants this is a group that

can really get after it and it’s still a relatively fresh offensive line that has been put together for Dallas that we

don’t know too much about and by the way the one test they were going to get Jaylen Carter got kicked out of the game before it started and we don’t really

know what his impact was at that game. That would be my trepidation with using Dallas. But if

you were to say right now, John, I want I’m like, all right, fine. That’s No, I I guess just my counterpoint to that would be let’s say that is the

case, is the Giants offense still going to be able to score enough points to beat you? Yeah. Oh, well, that’s the other part,

right? You love Jackson Dart. What if he what if he gets in this game? I don’t think he does. And so that’s

like I I feel like they if they were going to put Jackson Dart into a game, they would want to give him the full

week of prep knowing he’s the starter and put him in. I don’t think they’re going to throw him in, especially behind an offensive line that is still going to

be without Andrew Thomas for another week. Um just face your fate here this week

and if you do ultimately want to pull the trigger and bring in Jackson Dart, you give him a full week of prep. Sure. So that’s my thought process at least on

that. Okay. My other uh my other question for you would be then is there any other option for Dallas to use them? Probably

not. The only one you could really make a case for is if the Bears get absolutely smoked this week and they’re

just awful. You go to Chicago next week and then I don’t know, maybe at Carolina

if they’re awful in week six, but I don’t think that you’d be jumping at the gun to use the Cowboys in those situations depending on how the week.

Well, and the Cowboys, they too play on Thanksgiving and holidays, but like I don’t want to take them against the

Chiefs potentially, right? But Dallas this week at home, too. They’ve been so good historically in this matchup, 15-1

outright against the Giants since 2017. Um, Cowboys tend to beat up on bad teams. They play better at home. A lot

of things drew me toward Dallas. So, Dallas and Baltimore is the tossup right now. And maybe we’ll cement our decision later on in the show because we still

need to I hate this. This is going to be every week. This is going to be every or Yeah, I think Ortega hopefully.

Yeah, I was going to say, yeah, hopefully it is. Uh, Ortega texted us on Sunday something along the lines of like you survived and I just said that wasn’t

fun. No, it wasn’t worth it. It wasn’t. You feel physically ill. Who wants that? We could still We could still

technically our entry is now worth $1,32. We could sell it and split the profit. There we go. Nailed it. Nice.

$16 a piece. Okay, we got to step aside when we come back. Kicking off hour two here on Money Moves. Don’t go anywhere.

We’re going to get into a little college football after this.

NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Trends, and Player Props

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Major Takeaways:

Significant line movement has occurred, with the Packers shifting from -4.5 openers to -3 at most books, largely due to key Green Bay offensive linemen being questionable.
Strong week-two betting trends heavily favor the Washington Commanders to cover the spread, especially when facing a team that won big in its opener.
Player prop bets on Commanders defenders to record sacks are popular, with analysts targeting Donte Payne and others to exploit potential protection issues for Jordan Love

NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Trends, and Player Props

This is VSIN, the sports betting network.

Always follow the money. Follow the money. That’s what I always say. You always follow the money. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss

and Paulie Howard on VSIN. Here we go. It is follow the money on

VON, the sports betting network. Mitch Moss along with Paulie Howard. We are live in downtown Las Vegas from the

Circa Resort and Casino here on a busy Thursday. Uh fun program, informative

program, uh opinionated program coming up over the next three hours. Like I said, Paul Chian in 30 minutes, two full

segments with him on fantasy for week two and player props that he likes tonight and this weekend. Drew Butler,

former kicker at Georgia. Why is this number moved so much? Tennessee’s way. We’ll ask him about that. Steve Wis, the

Meatman, best bets in soccer. John Kim tonight, who covers the Commanders with a Thursday night football preview coming

up a little bit later on, Paulie. And on the screen right now, I see that

DraftKings is at three and a half in the game tonight. Minus 118 if you want to take it with the Commanders. Minus 102

on the Packers. Pretty much every other spot has Green Bay minus three. now in

the game with various juice on that as well. Did you know that Circa opened up four and a half right away on Sunday

night? Oh wow. Yeah. VO’s very own Dogger pass man Dave Tulie grabbed the four and a half and then he

was on the network that night with uh Scott Seidenberg and he said I still absolutely would recommend plus the

four. So that’s the uh direction in which this bad boy has been moving. Now I I agree with it. I grabbed three and a

half earlier today minus 115 on the commanders. All right, good. I like the Packers. I know they’re coming off a perfect game.

Washington didn’t play well, but I think Green Bay can move the ball on this Washington defense. It’s a whole

different ballgame going against the Giants and I want to see what Parsons can do as well that he wasn’t out there

a lot, but had a big big impact on the game when he was out there against Detroit and we’ll see what happens today

with that defense and and uh carried away all aboard on the Packer bandwagon

from 23 to1 to 8 to1 to win the uh to win it all and the NFC odds as

well. crazy. What’s going on with the futures? So, we’re on opposite sides of this one for tonight. I’ll give you a rundown of some week 2 trends in recent years. If

it means anything to you coming up in a few minutes, but here’s here’s one reason why I like the Commanders, but we’ll find out a little bit more uh

probably 90 minutes or so before game time tonight, like who is actually going to be active and inactive. And I’ll say

this on the Packers side, Bo Melton, cornerback, he is out. Brettton Cox,

Dlineman, he is out. But my biggest question mark are the following two players for Green Bay. Guard Aaron Banks

and then offensive lineman Zack Tom. They’re both questionable. If they can’t go in this game tonight, um I’ll give

you an example here. Will Anderson for Houston in the offseason was asked about the most difficult offensive lineman

that he’s faced in his career so far. His answer, Zack Tom from Green Bay. So,

he’s very good. And if they’re without both guys, I think uh Love’s going to feel a little bit of the pressure

tonight by this front for the Commanders. And also, I I did not I was unaware of this because we have not been allowed to bet at DraftKings because

they own the company for so long. So, I never really looked at this until today. You can bet individual players. I know

that you could bet individual players to get a sack at some spots, but they offer over a quarter sack. So, if a guy

contributes to a sack and he gets a half a sack, that’s going to be a winner. And

like for example, Payne tonight, Don Payne, over a quarter sack, plus 302.

Payne had two sacks last week. Um, Armstrong is 2 to1 over a quarter sack.

He had six pressures on Russell Wilson, one sack and five hurries, and two other players to throw at you. Uh, Kinlaw had

three pressures and two quarterback hits, plus one hurry. Over a quarter sack tonight is plus 394.

And then like, does Von Miller play? We’ll find out again a little bit later on. He’s plus 196.

And if it’s going to be, we’re talking no Zack, Tom, no Aaron Banks. I would like to attack it by betting all those guys over a quarter sack tonight.

Well, they had time to game plan though all week, too. And Laflur is an excellent coach that he is. And uh see if they’ll have something ready to get it out fast. I know they

want to take shots down the field, but ground and pound and a lot of Jacobs, too. So, they have a lot of talented players and a lot of weapons. I’m high

on this Golden kid, but also they were just uh didn’t get to showcase all their stars last week because they were

sitting on the big lead and the defense was all over. Oh, DraftKin just went to 32 now, man. Did they move to three?

Um and uh you know, it was just run the ball with Jacobs and the defense was all over Goffin and Baris Detroit. So, I

give them the edge because of the short turnaround and being at home and the fact that do with this what you want. Lafleur has been unbelievable. He’s he’s

what 12-0 uh ATS week two and week three. Yeah. So that that’s also strong as

well. He’s very good. Um let me give you some other numbers here with like recent trends. Steve Mackin von.com must read

every single week in the first half of the season. Home teams are 25 and 22

straight up on Thursday Night Football. But only 15 30 and2 ATS 33% in the last

47 games going back to 2018. And when you uh dig even deeper, since

2016, home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44 and 27 straight up, 422 26 and 3

at 62%. And Steve provides his analysis on that as well. And it makes a lot of

sense like right away there’s no like real travel spot. I know it’s a Thursday night here, week two for Washington, but

later on in the year really catches up with the road teams early on in the season has not been a big deal. teams

playing a second straight home game in week two and are favored are 14 and 10

straight up but five and 19 ATS over the last three years. That would be Green Bay tonight. You’re down 16 units with

that. And I’ll give you some other numbers from VO host Steve Mackin. You can follow or check that Scott

Seidenberg. You can follow him on X at Scotsson on air. Since the start of the 2021 season,

that’s when we expanded to 17 games and the preseason went down to three weeks. Dogs in week two are 3721-4

against the spread, covering on average by 1.7 points per game. And teams that won in week one and then are favored in

week two are 11 and 21 with three uh pushes ATS since then. That would be

Green Bay. And when those uh 1 and0 favorites are home in week two, only 515 and one ATS. So if you buy into the week

one, week two trend stuff, it’s all anti- Green Bay here in this spot.

Another one, if a team won their week one game by 10 plus points in week two,

they’re 13 and 14 at uh and only 5-1 ATS. Uh failing to cover

by 1.9 points per game when listed as a favorite in week two. So, strong stuff there on Washington’s side in this game

tonight. Packers are the better team. I’m confident in them tonight. How about how the total’s too high? Why is this 49?

Well, h why is that total so high? Washington’s improved defense and what we saw last week. So, I expect both

teams to run the ball and Green Bay was so dominant last week defensively. I’m shocked at this total. And then it went

up. Keeps going up. Yeah. Yeah. I went under 48 and now now we’re up to 49 in some spots and 48 and a

half. Is that because the Washington offense is so like highly thought of and so it’s power rated to the moon?

They didn’t I know, but that was last year. They didn’t play well. Well, they had 400 yards. Last Well, I mean, you had to hang on to

beat the Giants from if the Giants could cash in at the goal line and not throw the ball. Uh I think that that’s one

thing that the good Giants defense though, too. But to me, it’s all about Parsons and and the impact he can have on this game. And there was a good

article about this is the great marriage which is already a good defense and now with Howley how dangerous this could be and could it be the best defense in the

league on the field against Detroit. The Packers conceded minus two rushing yards

and seven plays. 48 yards on 15 plays without Parsons. Everywhere he went, the

Lions made sure they had two or three hats on him. Dominant on his own created easier matchups for everyone around him.

He had his first sack. Goff got rid of the ball more than half a second quicker when Parsons was on the field. 2.8

seconds compared to when he was off 3.36 despite Parsons being confined largely

to third downs. On the snap, the Packer sacked Golf three times and coughed it up 2.4 yards a play. The longest game

going for uh 16 yards. Betting on Parsons to transform Halfley’s defense was like getting in on

water before the first day. The guy writes in this article, incredible job. And that’s, you know, it’s been nothing

but hype for the last uh seven days, but probably longer than that once they acquired him. But I think it’s uh it’s

rightfully they’re rightfully the favorite to win the division and they just destroyed Detroit. The one thing Detroit did do was they hit Laaporta.

So uh the guru making the case for Z over sure catches and receptions and he scored a touchdown last week. So

there’s also this uh a couple of props here with Jane Daniels. His rushing prop earlier today was as low as 43 and a

half. I think it’s going up at some books. Surprise, surprise. Uh people betting him to go over, but his longest

rush is also listed at 15 and a half yards. He went over that number 10 times last year and he had 68 yards last week.

He cleared 43 and a half rushing yards 12 times last year, including the playoffs.

I think there’s an angle here where the Packers try to bring a lot of pressure on him. Like Parson’s around the edge,

that’s what he thrives at. And if this guy is going to be as elusive as, you

know, he was in year one, and I think that’s going to continue because he’s so talented. I think that’s going to create some open running lanes here for him

tonight. And I think like over 15 and a half with the longest rush could be there

that long, right? Because like it’s going to that’s a big number. If they come around like that and that’s going to create some running

lanes for him and he’ll take off and if they don’t have a spy on him at that point, I think he might be able to clear that. But also like that could I think

that’s can that overall is going to keep Washington moving the sticks for a lot of this game. That’s why I’m on love over cuz Washington’s going to play man and just

take off and run. I can’t believe his numbers that low. I bet it it came down. I bet it over this morning. You can go over rushing yards and over

uh over longest rush and the guru’s on that as well. You can ladder him too. I

think Love will take he took off three times against Detroit. But I think he’ll there’ll be plenty of opportunities for

Love to uh take off and go and leave will get four and a half yards on the longest rush. Yeah, I I played over four and a half. I

think Circa was at four and a half minus 120 today for uh overall rushing yards by Jordan Love. Did you find Debo to have a rush?

Yes, I did. Uh over a half a rush was minus 240 and I think they moved it to over one

and a half plus 180 at bet 365. But his yards came back down by the way.

So it got as high as 7 and a half yesterday. Debo is now back down to four and a half now, but his his props been

moving back and forth like a ping-pong match the last 12 hours. VO Pro delivers real-time DraftKings and

Circa betting splits. See where the public and sharps are putting their money. The morning email from Bill 80 recapping all the best bets from every

host, every guest. 247 video, the pro tools, the prop analyzer, the Mackin and trends, everything you need to stay

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betting, Von’s got your weekend game plan. Fridays at 7 p.m. it’s the Circa Friday Football Invitational. Saturday

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On the next edition of Prop Points, we’ll start off the show reacting to all the action from Thursday Night Football.

Decent betting analyst Ben Stevens will join the program to give out his best bets for week three of college football.

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of my favorite player props and touchdown props for Sunday’s NFL action. I’m John Hansen. Tune in to Prop Points

at 100 p.m. Eastern, only on VSON, the sports betting network. So Paulie, have you had a chance to read

the VSON daily yet? Yeah, came in at 3:00 a.m. What’s Bill doing up that late? Well, rumor has it it starts off with a

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Win some, lose some is sponsored by the Shark Plays. Were you a winner last night? Wow. Winning.

Or was it a rough one? Well, they can’t all be winners, can they? Loser. You’re a loser. Paulie Howard recaps the night in sports

betting in win some, lose some. Big one cash. Most runs available every night.

Caesars and Will and DraftKings. Tigers 40 to1. Phillies 20 to1. Dead heat.

Highest scoring game. Phillies Mets 12 to1. The home team is 11-1 this year.

Head-to-head in that Phillies matchup. Cubs plus 145, Reds plus 130. Padres’s

blow it again. What a disappointing organization. They might miss the playoffs, honestly.

Well, see if they sweep the Rockies. I’m not uh holding my breath on that one. Subscribe, be part of the team, von.com,

our radio and podcast friends. You always want to see these tweets and videos at paulyv on Instagram. Send them

in. We’ll put you on. Thanks to everyone who keeps sending them in on a regular basis. Look at this guy coming down on

the the hill going uh on the snow. He’s going to beat him. He’s on the raft on

the little ride and the dog’s going to beat him all the way down the hill in the snow trying to catch him as he pulls him down. And he stayed ahead of him the

whole way. God, that guy can scoot. He stays ahead of the the human the whole time as he’s on the tube coming down on

the hill on the snow. That’s incredible. What kind of dog is that?

Looks like Digs Aussy’s dog. It’s almost like a Jack Russell, but I know it’s not. But look at that. Begging him to chase him

and play catch, if you will, and I’ll come down the hill and I’ll beat you. This dog could win like contest with the

100 meter dash. I mean, yes. Do you ever watch it on ESPN where they dive in the water to get the the toy? But I mean, how far

they can get in the air? That’s right. That’s great. Excellent. How about the little hole in the gate here?

They’re coming in. 19.

19. Oh, this is that Oh, what is this? Oh, okay. They made like a 50ft hot dog, I

believe. Was that Fenway? It might be longer than that, actually. Who did this? Oh my god.

Well, my guess is this is AAA. Oh, some of some Okay. as like a promotion. But it also looks like a really nice stadium. So I I can’t

remember. I saw this online. I can’t remember exactly where. No, that’s bigger than TripleA for sure. Was that chestnut involved? He was just

doing some other event where he ate 15 lbs of something. Oh, he could probably eat like a 50ft hot dog.

Bent down the longest 28 seconds. Okay. The longest hot dog ever. Okay, now 19. Look at Yeah. Peekaboo. Coming

in the hole in the gate. Dogs peeking their head out. What’s going on? What are you What are you up to? Taking the

back. That’s so good. It’s like when the like when the the person’s got the condo but

it’s it’s way up and then she cut a hole and so the dog could see what’s going on downstairs or if you’re lower they could

play fetch with the dog. Yeah. And he can throw the tennis ball up there and he’ll put it through the hole as well. That’s great. As always beats

whiskey and a revolver. Under eight and a half in the Dodger game. 4 nothing bottom of the eighth. Mooki hits a grand

slam and then Hernandez goes deep. Nine nothing. Cardinals plus a run and a half. Oh, 2-2 in the 13th. Guy comes in

for the Mariners. I think it’s a pinch runner. Then he had a two-run walk-off bomb to cover the run line. And they

sweep St. Louis in a game they had to have. I saw the highlight after the game was over with um late last night. And I’m

like, yeah, uh there are some people who are going to wake up tomorrow morning who thought that bet was dead if they had the Mariners on the run line. And

well, and then in the inning, right? And then the inning before Seattle had the bases loaded with nobody out, didn’t

score. Like what’s the probability of that happening? I was watching I was watching in play. What do you think it was

for them to like score a runner to win the game? Well, yeah, right. Cuz you that’s the bottom of the 12.

They they were minus 2,000. Yeah. In that range, right? You could get like 12 12 to one takeback.

Yeah. So it’s like it’s they got out of it. There was a strike out, I think, and then a double play. Come on. And that’s like less than 5%. Yep.

Then the Padres’s one- nothing in the eighth. They blow it with that great bullpen. All you got to do is get a lead like in the sixth.

You’re going to be good to go. Why did he make a pitching change? He already had a lefty in the game. Yeah, he went lefty lefty and they couldn’t

get Paveta any help last night. No, I know Abbit’s good. Yeah. Yeah. For the line moves, sharp plays already

there. Jeff and the crew do a great job. You’re not going to smarter out muscle billion dollar books. So full-time

sharps on your own with the sharp plays. You don’t have to. Powered by advanced AI and plugged in trusted insider

sources. They deliver the edge serious beters use everyday free reports, alerts, market moving insights. Send

straight to your inbox or X feed. Add it since 2011. Documentary results, public logs, transparent receipts.

Sharpplays.com. Trusted by pros, watch by the books. Visit sharpplays.com. Stay out of the line. Incredible information.

He’s always on sharpplays.com. I’ll update a couple of games going on as we speak. Uh they’re both shutouts

right now. By the way, shout outs keep coming in every single day. But the White Socks are doing it again.

And they open up as dogs today again against Tampa Bay. And they’re up five nothing right now in

the seventh. This team, are they going to run away and hide with most wins in September? No. This is crazy talk. Run away and hide. Yeah, it’s a it’s

it’s a great sweat though. I would say runaway and hide. Another one is uh Toronto right now with a four nothing lead over Houston. Top of

the fifth. That’s Gossman going today. Oo, Seattle could be tied for first place. Juicy. And Baltimore swept Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh now 22 and 50 on the road. Every loss is by a run.

Right. And I I saw you that Mariners game though tonight. That’s going to be Miller going against Sorriano. Soraniano

was on the schedule for yesterday but pushed back to today. I actually the market is uh on Seattle in this game.

Opened up about a buck 45. It’s up like 10 cents from that right now. I I do not trust Miller enough to like

back him. And Soran was a guy we talked about yesterday. It’s like every other start with very difficult guy to figure out, but he was awful in his last start.

I’m on the Phillies again. Again, the home team’s 11-1 between the Mets and Phillies.

They’ve had no problems in the first three games of this four game set. Hey Paulie, good read by you on this series.

Yeah, every day you’ve been all over it both days. Magic number down to seven. Costano’s hitting 400 against Peterson career and

they can blow him out again. and I don’t trust Peterson and the Mets aren’t hitting other than Sodto. Uh Alonzo has

bad numbers against Lazardo. So I think the Phillies get him again. How about a 20cent move here on the game

the other way? They open up a buck 44. Uh is this accurate right now? Circus

at$122. That’s what they are on the screen. There was some movement in some of the other games as well. Um Detroit trying

to sweep the Yankees. Oh boy, this has been a bloodbath of a series. It’d be the third time they’ve ever done it in a modern era to sweep

the Yankees in New Yorkers. Yes. It’d be the second time in the modern

era if they win by double digits again. Can they win every game by 10 plus runs?

They’ve outscored them 23 to three in the first two games. Yeah. And the Yankees again tonight laying a$160 in that range. Maybe even a little

bit higher. the Washington Senators in 1951 and the Red Sox in 2021 were able to do it.

I would not be laying this big of a number with the Yankees at all. Yeah. Can’t do it. I do like Cleveland, too. I

think uh Williams, who’s been strong, 5-1 with a 174 since the break. Fourth best erra since

the break. Mhm. To take out the Royals tonight. And uh other than that, it’s a small card. I do

find that like Mike Palm the Maestro brought up that WNBA game interesting with uh the Lyns and the Golden State.

If Golden State wins, they’re the six. If they lose, they’re the eight and they

face the Lyns. The links are lane seven. Why would you play Callier? Why would you play anybody? The playoffs start

Sunday. Golden State money line is plus 250 in some spots, right?

I think they’re going to go out and try to win this game. I don’t want to play the links. Well, and why would the Lynx want to play them?

That too. You they can pick their opponent like like Mike Palm said. Sure, they play Seattle if uh if they lose to

Golden State. That that’s like the most logical approach here by the team. But then then you got to figure like are

WNBA teams to the point of where they actually buy into this kind of stuff

like where NBA teams might do this and NFL teams might kind of like, hey, we’re not going to send our best

guys out there. All of a sudden, four more guys are on the IR this game. Well, you’re playing that’s a management

uh decision, too. Right. And that’s what I’m saying. Like in the front office, do they actually have that in them mentally to

do it? Yeah. Let me give you some news on this Packers game. We talked about this in the first segment. More on it coming up with Paul Charian in about 5 minutes. Uh

tweet here from Packers Notes. The Packers placed defensive end Brentton Cox on IR, elevated quarterback Micah

Robinson, and offensive lineman Brent Banks from the practice squad. the

elevations would suggest that uh Nate Hobbs and Aaron Banks on the offensive

line along with Zack Tom probably won’t be playing tonight. I think that’s the uh the takeaway from that as well. M

maybe one of the offensive linemen yet because they only elevated one guy, Brandt Banks from the practice squad,

but it’s not looking good for those two guys on the team. And it looks like um there’s still one three and a half out

there nationally speaking, but you got to there’s severe juice on it and every other book basically is th now three on

the game. All right. Well, they got to prove it to me. A lot of talk about how they’ve addressed and fixed the defense and want to do a better job. Giants don’t count.

So, we going against the big boys tonight. Let’s see how that defense looks and if the Packers and Love can exploit it and have some success and and

slow down Daniels. I I like your guy, Bill, though, too. His rushing yards are too low. What was the last number that

you saw? Because I think that’s been on the uptick as well. I think I saw as low as 37 and a half. But yeah,

but in the low 40s as well. As always, shop around. Make sure you have several different outs here when you want to bet

this stuff. He’s uh plus money to get 40 at DraftKings. Okay. Interesting. All right.

Well, we have a Washington commander guest on coming up in about 90 minutes. Specifically going to ask him if Debo

Samuel is going to get a carry in this game tonight. I think they try to take away Jacobs and slow him down and that

can open it up for uh passing attack for love. Okay, very good. U fantasy football hall

of famer Paul Charian joins the program coming up next. Lot to get into over the next two

segments. What’s the appropriate approach with the 49ers as Brock Perie is out against the

Saints? We’ll ask him that coming up on Follow the Money. It’s Von the Sports Betty Network.

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Welcome in. Thanks for watching today on YouTube TV, listening on SiriusXM channel 158, iHeart Radio, TuneIn Radio,

or any of the uh great affiliates that we have across the country. We are trying to connect right now with fantasy

football hall of famer Paul Chian. Hopefully that happens here pretty soon. Until then, Paulie, of course it is.

Can you believe this? The 24th anniversary 911. No idea.

Next, next year will be a quarter century. Yeah. And I can’t I don’t I don’t even know what to say because it I it was

super emotional today. I followed the TSA Instagram account. It’s actually quite funny with some of the stuff that

people try to get by with. Yeah. The TSA Instagram account

put a video up today. Never forget. I It’s the first time I

ever saw some of those videos and heard some of the audio and I was just broken today

when I watched it. I tried sharing some of it on my Instagram. account Mitch Moss, but if you follow, if you don’t follow TSA, I’m telling you, if you’re

going to watch like one video today uh about 9/11, you have to look at this thing, man. It just crippled me earlier.

We got to know Jim Fossil. Yeah. The Giants head coach. And when the Giants went to the Super Bowl and lost

to the Ravens, great dude. The Yes. The following year, they opened up on the road against Denver. And then

they were they lost and then they were coming back and they got in like I think it was and they were next to Flight 93

if the memory serves when they got in and then hours later uh what happened

but you had the Jim Fossil Foundation and he was a great guy and he said I told our players after 9/11 then you had

took the week off they were playing the Chiefs and he said you wear that NYPD or fire department

baseball cap and I’m telling telling you, we’re honoring these people. I don’t want to see it flipped around. I

don’t want to see the bill up or sideways or something else. I want it front and center with that hat or don’t put it on. We won the game, went into

the locker room was like old times. Put our arms together, got on our knees, everyone got in the picture, cap was

straightforward, and we honored them. He told the story of Giuliani reaching out saying, “Hey, can you come down to

ground zero?” He goes, “I’m just a football coach.” He goes, “Uh, it would mean a lot.” He said, “Everything in my mind is so

visible of what what happened. I can replay it over and over and over again.” And the whole season after that happened

was something where we had to refocus ourselves. And I told the players, “You park your car, you get on the bus, you go to New York, Manhattan, and you

always see some cars there.” When I left at night, they were mostly all gone. For about 10 days, there were a whole bunch of cars left there. And I can only

picture the fact that those people parked their cars, got on the bus, and went over there, and they perished. tough on your stomach every morning when

you went to work every day and saw all those cars sitting there.

And I was hard to get through an interview every time he would tell that story. And uh you got to know him.

I traveled with him quite a bit cuz I called the UFFL games out here for the Las Vegas Locos. Yeah. And I did the coaches show and

this guy was so smart, great sense of humor. My favorite fossil other than

the, you know, the guarantee which was good. Putting all my chips in the middle. we are making the playoffs. And

they got hot and they did. But the other one was when he told the story, his phone’s ringing. So goes, “Why so many people calling me? What’s going on?” So

Jeremy Shocki’s on the Howard Stern show. What’s going on? And Shocki says, “My my my goal in life is to have a a

threesome with a mom and and two or two daughters.” And he goes, “You idiot. That’s a forsome.” And then he he goes,

“From now on, you have to clear through your agent every interview you ever do

and don’t ever go on there again.” And just screaming at Chocky and some of the stories that he had.

How about his first reaction, you idiot? That’s not three, that’s four. What a great story.

Here’s here’s Fossil though on the story of 911 and sharing some of his thoughts.

Paul Tagu made the right decision. He made the right decision. I mean, we were we were not ready. I mean, there was all

kinds of things that were so memorable to us. It’s like Giant Stadium was a was

a was a ground where people would drive their car into Giant Stadium, park it in the morning, and get on a bus into the

New York City. Okay? There might be 200 cars parked there. All right? And I

remember seeing it. And that night when I left, that parking lot was full. And it’s never that way. And I went, “Oh my

god.” I mean, how many people perished that parked a car here? When I go back in the next morning about six o’clock in

the morning, I’d say there was 150 cars still there. And I thought they just it made me sick

to think those people parked their cars and went into work uh in the city and

they probably perished. And uh Rich, you know, I got so many letters from people that said, you know, thanks for going to

the Super Bowl because now you’re on Monday Night Football and the game was so late, it finished after midnight that

I decided to go in late. I wasn’t going to get there early. I was going to take a half a day. And if if you guys weren’t

on Monday Night Football, I’d have probably been one of those towers. And u you know, people saying, “Thanks for

that.” I go, “Geez, really? It’s incredible. That that just hits you in the stomach

every time you hear it. Oh man. And that was several years ago on the Rich Eisen show cuz the game went so late. I I took a

half day. Oh, if they don’t go to the Super Bowl. Mercy. Yeah. So, I I will tell you this too.

Not only was that guy like a great sound bite, you know, that 9/11 story aside,

but like traveling with him too when I I called those games and he would like, you know, sit next to us on the flight

and then he would tell like the broadcasting crew to meet with him the

day before the game or the morning of the game. And that’s whenever you hear about like uh broadcasters telling you

like, “Hey, this is what I got.” Like they’re going to get some pretty good insight on the game. and if they’re going to share it, that could be

actually some pretty good information to follow along with like through throughout the contest. I noticed right

away the first time that that ever happened. It it the game unfolded to a tea how he

told my broadcast partner and me what what they were going to do and it was just like it was like a painting

watching it out there on the football field. He he that’s how good of a coach the guy was. And even at that level that

was called the United Football League. eventually players in that league went on to have like big impacts in the NFL.

You could watch like how effective the offense was like from the booth just to

see like he he gets it like he was it doesn’t matter where that guy was going to coach, he was going to be a good offensive coach. So anyway, that was uh

Jim Fossil and that’s that’s a little rough.

We lost him in 2021. Has it been that long now? Yeah,

that’s tough. Great guy. Yeah. Yeah.

So, um the other as we move along here on a sports betting network, the other New

York team this week is taking money as the Jets are taking on the Bills. That game’s

down to five and a half here at Circa. And Ed Oliver was an absolute menace on

the defensive line for Buffalo against Baltimore on Sunday night. He was spotted with a walking boot

earlier today. So imagine, go back to week one, what the Bills defense looked

like. I know it’s the Ravens offense, but then how good again what if the

Steelers defense is good. Well, yeah, cuz it was also they gashed them on the ground though. Sure. You know what the Jets are going to do?

You know, run the ball on them and how good they looked against the Steelers. Yeah, Jet the Steelers couldn’t stop

their ground attack. Yeah. So, I took um I think this number is going to keep coming down. I took six and a half with the Jets earlier today

and and I know that the game opened up on seven, but that didn’t last very long at all. And I don’t want to overreact

here to what we saw in week one, but you know, the Lions offensive coaching staff with their new OC. They have their

fingerprints now on this Jets team as they came over with Aaron Glenn, the new

head coach here for the Jets. And uh you got to like what Justin Fields looked like in that first game and picturing

him against this Bills defense that got absolutely gashed by Baltimore for I

don’t know 42 minutes on Sunday night before the the Ravens went into prevent mode on offense or try not to lose the

game mode and if they if they’re not going to have that Oliver man that’s a um

that’s a big loss potentially for him and so the total by the way keeps going up as well. Remember Paul Boie was on

the show on Monday, professional sports better who bet over 44 and a2 and over 45. That’s up to 46 and a half and trending

towards 47. What would you do if you’re running the 49ers now? Now Py could be out two to five,

right? M. Jones and Mike White. Oh boy. And

this is just this escalated quickly. Get out. Party out. This is they can’t

win. You got to call somebody because now it’s serious. What if it were what if Kyle Shanahan gets it to work with

Matt Jones cuz remember Michael Lombardi was saying that entire draft that that’s who they traded up for was M. Jones. Yeah, Shanahan wanted him. Got talked

out of it. That’s the guy he wanted. But I will my comeback would be okay.

Congratulations. You beat the Saints. Probably the worst team in the league. Then you have Arizona up next. I I

Let me give you this. I gota I gotta call somebody. The guy could miss five weeks now. Thanks to our our buddy uh Weston here on the program,

guy in the cornfields. He sent me this earlier today. This was Brian Thomas Jr.

in Jacksonville with M. Jones as a quarterback last year. Mhm. Okay. 7 for 103, 7 for 91 and a touchdown, 9

for 132 and a touchdown, 10 for 105 and two touchdowns, 8 for 86, and he had double digit targets in all those games.

My my Ricky Paw 2025 dream is not dead. If Matt Jones made it work like that

once he got clicking last year with Brian Thomas, maybe he comes in here with Kyle Shanahan and they realize, yeah, we’re going to be okay. I got

Ricky Pierce Hall to throw the ball to. Coupled with the report that Bellich stopped talking to M. Jones

that year. That’s right. Yeah. Yeah. All right. We’re going to connect with Paul Chargian coming up next. Fantasy Football Hall of Famer. We’ll get his uh thoughts on tonight’s game

and some fantasy angles as well for week two in the National Football League coming up here on VO.

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Moves, only on VSON. And maybe that’s why they wouldn’t because they’re the Giants and they don’t do things that make sense. Out of

all these divisions, this is the one that I am the most curious about because I do think there are positive signs for the Bears.

They’ll take you on a fun, fast-paced journey, weaving in everything you need to know to make an educated bet while

also not shying away from the excitement of a same game parlay sweat. Money moves weekdays at 2 p.m. Eastern on VSON, the

sports betting network.

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This is follow the money on VS. More on tonight’s game and week 2

National Football League fantasy perspective from fantasy football hall of famer Paul Charian with guillotine

leagues.com and he is on the progressive guest line. Good afternoon Charge. Thanks for the time today. How’s it going?

Uh excited for a pretty good what should be a really good Thursday night game. Better than last week’s for sure. And

you know I’m excited to see if the Packers are close to the team that we saw last week so we can really get a

sense of whether or not you know how much that’s Detroit, how much of that is Micah Parsons, where is was an already really good defense and you know Jordan

Love looked good. Where does he do in the second game? There’s so many great storylines in this one. I’m I’m very excited for this. So, I I know that you

want to attack it from a Josh Jacobs angle here, but are you concerned that

one or two offensive linemen might miss for the Packers? Yeah. Well, I am because that did carry

that does carry some weight here and last year offensive line was a wreck and that really made a for a lot of

inconsistency. You had players playing the wrong positions. We always want Elton Jenkins playing center whenever we

can. He’s utility everything guy. Hopefully, he doesn’t have to move, but if he can, he has to. Um but we know the

consistency gets there when that offensive line is together. So we’re gonna be we’re gonna be watching this one closely as it gets up closer to

kickoff. Yeah, I think that’s probably the the right approach there. Um Jaka Krosky Merritt looked great last week. Uh had

that big run, went more than 80 yards. You know, it was a promising start for him. The seventh rounder for Washington

after they traded Brian Robinson to the 49ers in the offseason. What do you think he does tonight?

Um I I’m I’m actually somewhat optimistic. He went through all of his carries. They’re only 10. And so I don’t

want to make it sound like I was, you know, that it was a big labor to break this down. 10 carries, 82 yards. Uh

here’s the thing that he does that’s really special for Jaori Krosky Merritt. He gets the ball and his when he’s got

to make an very quick decision about the way this play is setting up and the way his blocking is going, his vision and

footwork behind the line of scrimmage is remarkable. And then he’s got some jets. So the play he he gets the ball. He

needs to make a quick a quick change. The footwork is there for him and then the acceleration. He had a 40 yard gain

and he’s he’s breaking down the right side. Uh it’s not quite in the sideline. He’s off the sideline. He’s got one

safety left, Tyler Nuben, that he needs to beat. And he jked Tyler Nubin so hard

the Metife Stadium crew is still jackhammering his jock strap out of the field turf there. Oh, it was a great

great play by Bill. We that’s I’m I’m optimistic that he’s going to do well here and frankly Washington’s a little

easier to run on than they are to pass on. What do you want to do with these Packer wide receivers?

I want to avoid them all. This is setting up just like last year. Okay, now we know, you know, we all thought

that Matthew Golden was going to be a much bigger factor right away. Right. No Christian Watson. You got Jaden Reed

playing with a Jones fracture in his foot. He looked mostly unaffected, but we’ve seen Jones fractures, guys. You

know, guys have lost seasons on that. I don’t know how he played through that. His his pregame morphine drip must look

like Niagara Falls, but he only ran 12 routes and so I think they’re limiting him. Romeo Dobs barely ran half of the

routes uh half of the the play the passing plays. He ran routes in just half and he was the high water mark and

Matthew Golden was only on the field for 23 snaps. And I’m this thing feels like it’s setting up just like last year

and it’s super frustrating to try to figure out which guy is going to be on the field and part of the game plan from

week to week. really tough. And Washington was a shockingly good pass defense last year. Over their last 16

games going back to last year, they’ve only given up eight wide receiver scores. That’s it. They just locked down Malik Neighbors, who’s better than

anybody on the Packers just last week. Malik Neighbors turned 12 targets into five scoreless catches last week. So,

I’m down on all the wide receivers. Okay, let’s hit player props uh for this weekend coming up and maybe some fantasy

angles here as well. I was thinking about approaching Hunter Henry as a tight end um among my plays this week,

but you think Kahan Booty and his uh receiving yards prop is a little bit low.

Yep. We’re watching his shoulder injury. It’s not a little low, Mitch. It’s broken. This is This is a broken line.

He is 34 and a half yards is Kahan Booty’s overunder and he is the Patriots

number one receiving option. Unqualified. And you’re like, “Oh, what about Stefon Diggs?” Booty led Patriots

receivers in targets, snaps, routes, run ahead of digs. And Booty is such a great

story. If you don’t remember, and I don’t blame you if you don’t, he’s he was the kid that he was a five-star

recruit out of high school in Louisiana, could have gone to any program he wanted, decided to go to LSU. He’s at

LSU. He’s beating out Malik Neighbors. I mean, he’s like he’s the number one guy at LSU. He’s just he’s he is a true

phenom. But it goes to his head a little bit. He starts dealing with injuries. He’s got attitude problems and then the

knockout punch for Kahan Booty. He’s betting on Louisiana football and gets and he gets busted and he gets knocked

out of college football and he’s got to go to the pros too early. So he gets drafted by the Patriots at 20 years old.

Now he’s only 23. He’s the same age as a lot of rookies and he in his third year Kahan Booty is good. his last three

three of his last four games going back to last year 95 yards 117 yards and last

week 103 yards and this guy’s over under 34 and a half yards as the go-to

receiver and against the Dolphins. Yes, this is a Dolphins team with a stench of death on them. Mitch and Paulolly, do

you remember my visit in studio in July when we talked about how Miami’s got a pathway to be the first overall pick in

next year’s draft and the worst team and we talked about McDaniels is the worst as the first fired coach. All of that

stuff coming into focus here. Um, and they and the loss of Jay J uh Jaylen uh Ramsey in

the secondary is huge. Uh they’re going to have to play Rasul Douglas at starting quarterback for Miami. He was a

street fe free free agent two weeks ago. Over way over. Yeah, he was he was great

against the Raiders. Good breakdown. What do I do with 49er players now?

Well, okay. I mean, mostly we’re going to avoid uh that you know, M. Jones isn’t a death sentence. I mean, he’s

okay. He’s, you know, I don’t blame you if you haven’t you didn’t break down seven games of his tape with Jacksonville, but let me just tell you

it he averaged 0.8 touchdown passes per game. Um, but you know, he also put

Brian Thomas on a solid NFL start to his NFL career. So, not disaster stuff.

you’re gonna start Christian McCaffrey anyway. The guy that you care about is Ricky Purel. So, let’s just talk about him because he’s the only real swing guy

for the 49ers right now. Put up 108 yards last week. But here’s the thing

you need to know. And without George KD and Jawan Jennings banged up, he’s going to get a lot of attention. The average

pass attempt to Ricky Pierce saw last week, 21 yards. 21. Wow. If he’s going

to do that on like eight, nine, 10 pass attempts, we’re looking at potentially a still really good game from Persaw. And

he’s the guy that I I would be sure to start. Do you know like top of your head like what’s average for that? You said 21

yards for Pearl. Like what’s a good number? Nine. Nine yards is a nine yards is a typical wide receiver average average

distance of throw and Paw was at 21 last night. Wow. Okay. Uh that’s very good. Okay.

So, I think most of us as football fans were hoping and kind of rooting that Nick Chub was going to be 100% healthy

the entire year and take off and be like in the mix to win the comeback player of the year. What do you specifically make

of his matchup coming up on Monday night against Tampa Bay? His overunder is 49 and a half. We’re

going to go under even though Chub looked good last week and it was great to see him. He actually led all starting running backs with a 39% avoided tackle

rate last week. He finished sixth in yards over expectation. There’s clearly a mandate for the Houston to keep using

Nick Chub and you can drop all the rest of the Texans runners right now. But everything else I’m going to tell you is all bad about this matchup. First, the

Houston offensive line was already bad and it lost starting center Jake Andrews who got carded off with a high ankle

sprain. They’re also they’re using Ed Ingram at right guard who was hor he is

horrible and he’s hurt too. They actually have to go to somebody worse than him potentially. Houston last week

ranked 26th in ESPN’s run block win rate. And honestly, that’s generous. And here comes Tampa. A great run defense

last year that finished fourth best in rushing yards allowed, fourth best in rushing touchdowns allowed. And this

year in week one, they finished third best in ESPN’s run stuff win rate. They

just held Bjan Robinson to two yards per carry last week. And here’s here’s the

amazing thing on this. Why we’re going under on Nick Chup. Going back to last year, five straight Buck games, no

running back has topped 26 rushing yards. That’s it. It’s This is a great

run defense. And I I can’t advocate for Chubby, even though I was delighted to see him look good in that first game.

Wow. I never would have guessed that. Only 26 yards. One more under. Um JSN

went off in his first game with Sam Darnold against the 49ers. Great calls. Great call, buddy. So, what about the guy that’s going to

be playing like on the field with him at times? Cooper Cup this week. Cooper Cup. Yeah. Uh overunder is 30 and

a half. We’re going under against Pittsburgh. Just two catches for 15 yards last week. So, maybe this feels

obvious, but what I’m really I I I worry that Cup wants to play out of the slot

where he’s always been effective with the Rams. That’s also where Jackson Smith and Jigba likes to run, prefers to run from the slot. So, we still see we

saw Cub get enough work, but we saw some signs that I did not like. They kicked Cup outside for half his routes. We know

in LA he was not effective as an outside receiver. He dropped a pass last year.

He only dropped two all year and he already dropped a pass in week one. And when you’ve got worries about somebody’s age, these are little things that just

make you go, I don’t know about this. But here’s the real killer. Tough matchup in the slot with

Pittsburgh’s new quarterback, Jaylen Ramsay. Ramsay not normally a slot guy. With Pittsburgh making this trade, we

didn’t know for sure how they’d use him. They used him in slot coverage last week. And here’s what he gave up as a

slot quarterback. One catch, six yards, and had two pass breakups for Jaylen

Ramsey. Brutal matchup for Cooper Cup. So good. You’re the best. Paul Chartian

on X. Guillotinees.com is the website. Thanks, pal. Good luck tonight. Thanks, friends. Drew Butler on Georgia,

Tennessee, and

WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | MNF Vikings vs Bears Prediction | NFL Week 2 Analysis 9/8/25

Urban City Podcast Group — Mon, 08 Sep 2025 18:17:41 +0000

Major Takeaways:

Sharp money is already moving Week 2 NFL lines, with early action on the Colts, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys, and Chargers, indicating significant overreactions to Week 1 results.
For Monday Night Football, analysts are split but see value in the Chicago Bears as a live home divisional underdog against a Vikings team starting rookie QB JJ McCarthy.
In MLB, fading a struggling Aaron Nola is a popular strategy, with plays on the New York Mets’ team total looking strong against the Phillies.

NFL Week 2 Odds, MNF Picks & MLB Best Bets: Wager Talk Analysis

Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. This is Wager Talk today. I am your host Andy Lang. It is Monday.

Jumping right into NFL week 2 with a look at the opening lines. We’re also going to talk Monday Night Football. JJ

McCarthy making his debut. On top of that, Mets and Phillies are playing today. We’re going to break that down.

Giani is going to join us with the Steam Report. See where the money’s going uh for tonight’s game as well as this

upcoming weekend. Crackman’s gonna join us. We’re going to talk MLB or Monday Night Football. We’ll get his thoughts

on week one and Steve Merrill’s going to join us. He’s going to give you a deep breakdown of Monday Night Football and

then he’ll talk Mets and Phillies. We’re also going to take a look at what’s the overreactions from week one, where the

books won, where the betters won, and who were the big winners in props and fantasy football. Thanks so much for

joining us. Hope everyone had a great weekend. Hit that like button while we bring in Giani and get the Steam Report

and leave us a comment in the comment section. Gianni, happy Monday. I know it

was a busy busy weekend. Hope everything went well. I’m coming off a nice six and four day in NFL. You give me 60% winners

Gianni the Greek

every Sunday. I’m a happy happy man. How are you, sir? Wonderful, man. It’s been a a great start to the football season. Exactly as

I expected. I just hit refresh now. Currently number one in NFL and college football combined for 2025, up almost 50

units. And uh yeah, we’re just starting. If you’re not on the college football getting the college football action,

you’re missing out. Um, I I sent my subscribers, not for the daily guys, but I sent my subscribers almost what an

entire day of my stuff looked like. Just they voted yes. They wanted to see it. So, I gave them so much volume on

Saturday so they see what a betting syndicate actually looks like over a couple hours. The amount of plays that

they fire. So, it was a eye openening experience for them. And it turned out well. When all the dust settled, we

turned the profit. Overall, um, really good. Really good over the last couple weeks has been good. And now just move on to next week. Bottom line, the past

is the past. What we do ahead is what matters most. I don’t have the heart for for all the

plays that they do. My my my heart can’t can’t take it. Just give me some of my props and my random plays and uh I’m

happy. I Yeah, everyone style’s different. It’s We all have different like risk tolerance. We all are are able to handle

things differently. Like for me, it’s more nerve-wracking like zeroing in on one play and needing that one. You know

what I mean? It’s just everybody approaches it different. It’s what works for you where you’re able to be optimum.

I think that’s what you stick for. Whether it’s low volume or high volume, I don’t think there’s a a a correct approach. I just think it’s in what

helps you become a profitable better and that’s what you should stick to. Yep. Stay in our comfort zone. Uh let’s

take a look at Monday Night Football. To me, this is a pretty tough one when you got a quarterback making a debut like

that. You got new coaches and everything. Uh what’s happening here in this game? Well, no surprise. We saw some uh money

come in on the Minnesota Vikings early um like you said the the the question marks um for the Chicago Bears even in a

MNF Steam

divisional game even um being at home. Uh but since then we saw some takeback

on Chicago and it’s good two-way action. Like this is the kind of game you want to book um where you’re getting good

two-way money. Um the the opportunity to get middled really isn’t there. Um,

we’re also seeing under money from the recreational bers, which is a little surprising on a prime time standalone

game. They usually like to bet the favorite and over on those. Um, but historically, this has been an under

series. I think if you look at the last five or six, maybe only once. One time last year, one of the games went over.

Otherwise, it’s been a lowercing series. And I think that’s why you’re starting to see the under money come in from the

betting public. It’ll be interesting to see if the total starts reflecting that because you saw kind of a half point

movement towards the under. Uh but not much respect at all. So it definitely wasn’t short money that’s betting it.

It’s recreational bers betting the under. And like I said, it’s good two-way action. Some of the risk that the books have, they definitely have

some risk on Minnesota from some of the parlays um from yesterday, some of the

money line parlays and also some teaser liability as well. Um, right now you can

Teaser Rules

tease Chicago up through if you could get one and a half, you could get them up to seven and a half. That’s a plus CB

long-term profitable teaser. Um, but I think a lot already had Minnesota in

their teasers from yesterday because Minnesota’s decided they wanted to bet, which again doesn’t make sense, but they

feel a little more comfortable getting Minnesota at plus five or six, depending on what teaser they use. But I highly

recommend don’t tease. Even when it’s a standalone game, don’t tease totals. There’s a couple rules you stick by with

teasers and you’ll do just fine. Don’t lay more than 125 for a six-point teaser. Try to go through uh 3, six, and

seven only. Don’t bet numbers. I mean, teams bet numbers and uh don’t tease

totals. So, in a game like tonight with Monday Night Football, if you don’t have something to tease already for next

week, forget the teaser. Don’t tease it to the total. You’re not getting any added value. You’re better off straight

betting. Well, it had to be a huge week for teasers. I mean, oh yeah, all the all the all the all the most popular ones. I

mean, I’ll ask Dave Mason about it later this week, but teaser, it had to be teaser central. Uh

killed on those. I narrowed down those Wong teasers that based on the closing line and there were five that qualified, four of them

cashed. Um only one didn’t and that was it. And that was Detroit against Green Bay, you

know, the blowout. Otherwise, every other leg covered. So, when you have a week where all the teasers hit, what do

we do next week? Because it feels like the numbers are going to end up regressing to the medium. So, let’s take

a look here at week two and look at some of these opening lines. Uh, anything of note.

Well, Indianapolis Colts getting money now. The Indianapolis Colts were the forgotten team. Um, talking about them

NFL Week 2 Lookahead Steam

over the summer, they were getting no action at all. like no one even cared whether bet them to make the playoffs, not make the playoffs, overseason win

totals, underseason win totals. The books were really not booking much uh Indianapolis Colts. And yesterday after

that win, you saw money come in immediately and grab that three and a half on Indianapolis. They also took the

one on Philadelphia immediately. They laid the five with the LA Rams. Immediately, laid the three and the four

with the Dallas Cowboys after that one got dummy down a little bit and also took the LA Chargers who’d looked

phenomenal on their prime time standalone um week one game. So, it’s Colts, Philly, Rams, Dallas Chargers

already seeing some sharp money for week two in the NFL. Remember, this is one of the most advantageous weeks for betters

because we’ve only had one game played and yet we have six game week six days to analyze it and there are a lot of

conclusions that are going to be drawn off simply 60 minutes of football that just aren’t warranted. And that’s where

I think you’ll be able to take advantage of recency bias, none greater in week two because of the overreaction and no

data really to support it behind it. So, it’s all projecting. And when you’re going out on that risk curve, you kind

of want a a better return than lane 11 to win 10. But you’re going to see a lot

of opportunities to to turn a profit next week just taking advantage of some of that recency bias. Uh because again,

we only had one game played and a lot of analysis on that 60 minutes. As somebody that lives in Indianapolis

and watches the Colts and follows them, can I just say calm down? Calm down.

called block called day. You said Colts Super Bowl. Block. My Chargers future looked good. Go Chargers. Go Chargers.

That’s that. Yeah, I bet you got the way best of that number uh at this point. Listen, I’m rooting for the Colts. I’m

just saying let’s wait until they play a team with a pulse. Let’s Let’s just wait and see before we back up the BR. Never

forget the Saints last year. Uh did they win their first two games? Exactly. Came out looking like on fire.

Billion bucks. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, what, uh, what do you think was good for

for the betterers besides the teasers over the weekend? What, uh, what what did you see? I The under was what spoke

to everybody, I think, in that, uh, Pittsburgh Jets game. I know that was a big one for the books. What did you see

What did bettors win on NFL Week 1?

that the the Wise guys steam that one as well. They were steaming the under first half

and the under in the game. And again, that just didn’t get there. I That always worries me whenever I see shark

betterers on the same side. that’s truly one-sided. It worries me a little bit.

Um especially when it’s an under. Like when it’s an over and you got the the the the recreational betterers on the

over and the sharps on the over, that makes sense. But when you get the under steamed and the public’s heavy on the

under as well, those always worry me. Kind of like when I see the dog money, when when the public’s betting the dog

and they’re taking them on the money line thinking they don’t even need points and then the sharps are also on that dog, those dogs tend to worry me

most. um yesterday. I mean, you can’t really draw too many conclusions. Again, it was just one week. The lines were up

for a long time. These teams had plenty of time to prepare for that one single opponent. Um again, I think this is week

two is when you, you know, start uh not being able to draw conclusions, but I

think we’re going to see some teams like how they bounce back off a loss or off a win. Um and again, you got to take your

time. Unfortunately for NFL, it’s a short season, so you never really are able to get to that long term, meaning

there there’s not enough time for teams to regress and progress to the means at times. So there’s a lot of outliers, unlike in baseball, like we talked about

long enough season, nobody’s winning 62 65% of their games. You’re regressing, you’re progressing. That’s the bottom

line. There’s 162 games played. That will happen, but not so likely in the NFL or college football. Um, what stuck

out to me yesterday was the the the the public money was betting those favorites

like they usually do. And, you know, nothing’s really changed. Even though, you know, with more and more information

and knowledge and more sports betterers entering the party every day, but that the the biases are still the same, man.

They’re towards the favorites, they’re towards the over, and uh, books take advantage of that every single day.

Isn’t it amazing, Giani? Like we we do this every year and then it’s like we all know the public’s be playing money

like favorites and teasers. We know the Browns are going to screw up a game somehow. We know this team’s going to have a bad defense. We know this team’s

offensive line is going to be bad. Just like it’s like may maybe this is a little bit predictable uh from time to

time. So time uh let’s take a look at baseball. We don’t want to forget about baseball. There’s uh tons of uh tons of profits to

be made in there. We’re going to bring on Steve M to talk about one game in particular. Uh what are you seeing here? got a lot of games to to pretty decent

MLB Steam

slate here. Yeah, it’s a good good good good card today. Uh just three sides, one total. And also WNBA under Connecticut Atlanta

under Connecticut. The reason I bring that up is that’s one of those where it’s opposite what the recreational bers are betting. We don’t get heavy WNBA

action. But the couple bets that I have seen come in from the um recreational accounts. They’ve been on the over, but

that you have the the sharp money coming in on the under. Pay attention there. Now, Major League Baseball 953 New York

Mets even money 956 Atlanta plus 115 958 San Diego minus 130 and then 970

Milwaukee Texas over 8 and a half. That’s another one. The reason it hasn’t gone up to nine yet is you’re getting

some public money under there. So, that’s helped offset a lot of that risk. So, if you agree with that eight and a

half, jump on that before it gets to nine and loses its value. So, little slow in baseball, but again, it’s only

9:00 a.m. here on uh the West Coast, so we got plenty of time to uh see some

more action hit the window. Uh before we let you go, any takeaways from college football over the weekend

or any opening lines for college football that uh that jumped off the page that people are jumping on?

No, no, no. I mean, again, nothing really jumped out. We’re we’re officially now they call it week two’s over, but it was more like week three.

Uh so, we got it more data under our belts. That’s what I’m looking forward to digging into this week’s games that

we actually have something behind it, not just like projecting like we have some data to go by. Uh but nothing

really stuck out. We don’t have like no no huge huge um uh losses by any any big

favorites or anything like that. Nothing really out of the ordinary happened on Saturday. Uh but it’s interesting seeing

like some of those higher profile games get that though big teams have that loss already. You know what I like a team

like Texas, what do they do now that have a loss like that? Those things kind of interest me as we’re going forward

and how the sports books are going to handle that because you know those teams got to win and they got to win with margin now. You know what I mean? You

got a loss under your belt. You’re not just showing up even against a weak team that you’re a 40-point favorite. You’re

going to go in there looking to blow them out by 70, I think. Um so look for style points on some of those one loss

teams that still had playoff aspirations coming into the season. I think he could uh get some value there.

Uh it’s Monday Night Football. Got loaded baseball slate. What do you have up for clients over at Wager? Oh yeah, I got a two pack in the NFL.

We’re coming off a Sunday Night Football 4% best bet winner and we’re rolling over on Monday Night Football. Confirmed

side and confirmed total. So they’re both in the same package. 4% side, 4%

total. Currently number one NFL college football combined. You’re gonna want to see what the college football and NFL

action is the rest of this season. I’m getting some really good stuff as subscribers will tell you. And uh hopefully we just keep cashing tickets,

man. When all the dust settles, as long as we pick up a couple units, things are good. So, it’s been a great couple

weeks. But today, we start off 0 and0. But there is some soccer. So, go to the wager talk. There’s the free picks page.

I put up some premium soccer for you as well. There’s some World Cup friendlies out there. And Madagascar was big today.

They laid the the points with Madagascar. They laid 350 with Madagascar, 400 with Madagascar. So, I

don’t know. I don’t like eating that kind of chalk, but when I see that kind of they’re betting it every kind of way,

first half team total, when you’re seeing them try to just get down as many different ways on a side, I pay

attention. So, best of luck. Whether you follow or fade, hope you have a winning week ahead. Yeah. If you see that kind of movement

on soccer, Exactly. Somebody might Somebody might know something. Know something. It’s like when there’s a

random Yeah, it’s like when there’s a random tennis tournament. It’s like, why is everyone betting on this random

tennis? Oh, the other guys have got a pulled hamstring. That’s why. So, uh, Giani the Greek, everyone, thank you

so much. Uh, have fun at Contender Series tomorrow. We’ll be cheering you on. Uh, let’s do uh, let’s take a look at

recap here. We’re going to um, we’re going to look at some overreactions. We’re going to look at where the books won, where the betters won. We’re take a

look at some props and fantasy football winners. Let’s start with overreactions.

Uh, let me know in the chat which one do you think is the most accurate or which one is the most ridiculous? Uh, Dolphins

are the worst team in football. I saw that one a lot. Colts are a legit threat in the AFC South. Overreaction. Uh,

NFL Week 1 Overreactions

Steelers and Jets, two of the best offenses in the league. Uh, the Lions are now wrecked with losing the

coordinators and assistant coaches. The Cowboys are good. The Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs. and everyone

wanting to cancel their Red Zone channel subscription because of the commercials. That one was that that that to me is the

the clear overreaction uh winner for for week one overreacting. So, let me know

what you guys think. So, Red Zone. Yep. Yep. Yep. Lot of lot of lot of dislike

for Red Zone and then all of a sudden it’s really nice to have in your life on Sundays. So, uh let’s take a look at

where the books won and where the betters won. uh block that’s not my that

I’m I’m I go to social media for those. I ask people that’s that’s not my opinion. I just go to Twitter and look

and see what’s hot and what’s not. And that’s that’s where I uh that’s where I get those. So that wasn’t that wasn’t me. Pretty clear-cut where the books

won. The under in the Steelers and Jets game was uh it was it was over very very

Where the books won/Where the public won

early. Literally over. And then the Giants plus the points big line movement on the Giants. And the Giants they were

who they thought we were. Uh we’re the public one. Listen, the moneyline parlays and teasers with the Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals, and Commanders. And

I got to believe everyone did very, very well in their Survivor picks. Let’s take a look at some of the prop winners. Uh,

hope everyone did good in fantasy football. Justin Fields had to be a big winner for his props. Baker Mayfield to

NFL Week 1 Prop Recap

throw two touchdowns or more. Just keeps cashing. Uh, Ricky Pierol, uh, we’re not going to get that receiving line

anymore. He looked fantastic. Anytime touchdowns for James Connor and Derrick Henry and Jaylen Herz Herbert continues

to not throw interceptions and Amaika Puka Woo Tampa Tampa Bay look great with

him there. Uh fantasy and props losers Lions I’m not panicking on the Lions

just yet but St. Brown Gibbs and Montgomery were horrible. The Bengals were terrible. Chad already pointed that out. Burrow Chase Higgins were bad. Nico

Collins was bad and that Texans offensive line looks as bad as it was last year. AJ Brown was a bummer.

Pacheco, who knows what is going on in the Chiefs backfield and Bucky Irving was quite

disappointing as well. So, those are your props in fantasy football winners and losers. Let’s bring on Bill

Crackman. I’m interested in your take. Uh, NFL week one overreactions, big

winners, big losers. What’ you take away? Hey, Andy. Uh, you know, I actually liked your list wherever you just got

NFL Week 1 Takeaways

that from. It’s fantastic. But I’m going to agree with the public too. The commercials on red zone is stupid. That

the idea is to get red zones to get all your plays in, have your things. I mean, you know, to watch everything as it’s

happening. I don’t want to have a commercial when when someone’s, you know, in in the red zone,

hence to say the red zone. But yeah, so that kind of pisses me off, but nothing would surprise me with ESPN. Um, but

yeah, and some of those things, of course, they’re overreactions. And what people don’t fail to realize is

whatever the public is thinking, trust me, that is already in the next week’s

forecasted numbers when they when they the bookmaker that puts them out, they put them out knowing that that’s what

the public’s going to think. They’re going to think teams like, “Oh, maybe uh, you know, the Pittsburgh’s better

than we thought with Rogers.” And, you know, there’s some clear-cut ones there, too, though. Um, especially like like

Kansas City maybe, or even, you know, even Buffalo. Even Buffalo’s defense was very suspect. So, of course, the next

Dont think you can outsmart the bookmakers

week’s going to add an extra half a point or a point on the total thinking that Buffalo’s going to score a lot of points and their defense sucks. So, you

know what I’m trying to say is don’t think you can outsmart the bookmakers.

You know, uh, God blesses the bookmakers. Look what happened. That’s my old saying. Look what happened on in

the show I do on Fox Sports Radio Nationwide. We talked about we talked to their head of trading. So, and I tease

him all the time and say, “Listen, God blesses the bookmakers.” I mean, one of their biggest bets was on the they

needed the under on the Dallas game. Just think about that. They were like heavy heavy six figures under. How do

they win that? All over money came in. It was one of their biggest risk for the week. And by the way, the Eagles the

Eagles was giant for them. People laid seven, late seven and a half, even late eight on the Eagles. So that was one of

their biggest wins for the week was was was that game. All the bookmakers though that that’s just a representation of the

bookmakers in general, how they did for the weekend. They did very well again. So, um, don’t let anyone kid you and

say, “Oh, I think a couple favorites win. People tease them down. They throw them in the money line.” And, you know,

it doesn’t matter. The bookmakers absolutely kill it because of the teaser juice, the parlays, everyone’s up. You

know, I call them chowmaners. Like when you when you when you go to to a Chinese restaurant and the waiter comes to you

and you don’t know what you want and you’ve been waiting there 30 minutes and you don’t know what you want, you know, you say, “Give me the chowine.” You

know, like because you’re a chowainer. That’s what they do with these child maners. They go to the line last minute.

They’re online and every sports book in America has people that get shut out. Why? They can’t make their decision up.

It’s just like the ch the guy ordering the Chinese food. He can’t make his decision up. He goes to the window and

just says, “Oh, give me give me.” And then they get shut out. I mean, it’s amazing. Uh we have a we have a

challenge on one of my shows and it’s a it’s called the crack challenge. five games against the spread every week at

five minutes before post. So, it’s just that hard to beat. And I’ve had some

professionals go 40% 35%. That’s how hard it is to beat an efficient line.

That’s why week one was so tough, Andy, too. These lines have been out for months. So, um you know, like like when

I’m getting to a Colts game back in June, uh plus one and a half and now they’re minus one and a half. You can’t

give that to out to the public. You know, that’s another thing too, Andy. I hate I hate and some of them I know

I hate when people give out a play you can only bet at one sports book

they’re actually some friends of mine. I can’t stand when people send out games. Oh, um, bet games 359

Arizona over at Hard Rock. That’s going to be your official play. one one effing

sports book has it and you want to tell people that’s and now you want to grade your over 39 when it’s 40 everywhere and

the game lands on 40 and now you’re going to grade it a winner because Hard Rock and Florida had it or ESPN bet

where no one that has a pulse can bet and they get thrown out or DraftKings that throws out anyone that wins over

$100 on a bet. You know, I’m going after some sports books today. Um I hate to usually mention them by name. Um, but

yeah, the the this is this is what I get. So, I’m I’m kind of pissed off about a a couple things. And you know,

the this weekend was a weekend where I had great closing line value. And I’m not making excuses, but hey, I actually

lost on Sunday. Most of the pros did. I I didn’t get to hear what Giani said, but I’m guaranteeing you he said lots of

the pros did. I mean, for me to get out get to get to um Atlanta early afford a

line move. I mean, that that actually and and Seattle, I actually seen these games at post time minus one. I took two

and a half. I gave them out two and a half. Um these games, too. But at the end, like just to see those two teams

choke. Seattle was dominating the whole game. Atlanta missed a chippy field goal at the end. I mean, uh some of these

guys are amazing. They can kick 60s some yarders, but yet when the pressure is on, they can’t kick 35. They can’t kick

an extra point. So, um, which is unbelievable, but yeah. No, it was a it was a it was a a weekend uh that was uh

a little choppy on Saturday, but a small win actually uh for for like I had

Dallas. I hate giving all these sides out, but people want sides. So, Dallas, I thought it was going to be a great NFL

week. I had Dallas plus the points and um and and then, you know, you come right into getting a closing line value.

months ago I sent out Kansas City pickum minus like 30 and uh boy now here’s an

overreaction. Do you really think the Chiefs are that bad? You think they’re not going to learn off of a week uh you know o overseas and come back here and

and just not be the team they used to be? Maybe not. Maybe not. But they’re not going to miss the playoffs or I mean

I don’t think so. Um but yeah, so it’s uh you know it’s first week. I’m really

MNF Free Pick & Analysis

happy to get over that and get some unique lines in here. Um, we got Monday Night Football tonight. That’s the old

uh black and blue game there. And and you know that that this game is a great division uh rival game tonight. Uh the

Sharps are back and forth on this. I know I bet it when it was plus one and a half. Uh when the line came out, I bet

Minnesota. Now they’re minus one and a half. And see, perfect example. I can’t give that out to people and told people

to tell people to Yeah. to buy that. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. Now granted, I think Minnesota’s going to be

a better team this year. I think they’re going to be a better team than people think. I like McCarthy. I I I like just

the organization. I actually made some future bets on them. But I thought

Chicago I like the under on things on Chicago season wins, not to make the playoffs. Well, one of my one of my guys

that I really respect, he actually likes Chicago to make the playoffs. So, um,

you know, you get back and forth, but I got to stick with I got to stick with what I got to stick with, though. I I I

got to go with M with Minnesota. And, uh, if if you have to make a bet on something, my god, I would I would

suggest a money line on Minnesota. I like Minnesota tonight. Old division game. Love that. But, you know, I know

it’s hard for people to stay off the games, Andy. Monday Night Football games on TV. You got to have action.

It shouldn’t be. It shouldn’t be hard. I’m not playing anything on it. I had a six and four day yesterday.

I know. I know. I It’s our It’s our public service announcement. You don’t have to bet Monday Night Football.

Um You like any props in this game? I was has I’m on the fence. I kind of like DeAndre

Swift over his rushing and receiving. Couldn’t get there. Um a sneaky one is Caleb Williams not to throw an

MNF Player Props

interception. I think he only had four games with an interception last year, but nothing I actually got to the window

with my own money on, you know. Um Andy, it’s funny. I used to be like 75 78% all unders on my props.

Um it’s closing it’s getting closer to 50/50 now. So I’m going to give you an over that I bet. Uh I like Lovelin over

receiving yards. Uh 27 and a half minus 15. I’m looking at the bet MGM line. Um

you know you know new coach Ben Johnson there. He should have a he he really uh

should have a ton of two tight end sets. So, uh, I I like him over. Um, Caleb

Williams likes those little short routes. So, uh, I like his over on his yards tonight. So, there’s a there’s a

there’s a prop that I put my money where my mouth is tonight. There we go. Um, yeah, they got some uh Titans says he

likes running back Mason. I was I this is the books are lining this backfield

like it’s a true split. I don’t know if you saw the numbers. They got Aaron Jones at like 53 and a half and Jordan

Mason’s at 39 and a half. So, it’s like books are telling us both both guys are going to get it. I I like that Loveland

uh prop a lot. You could tell the books struggle with some of these props because they’re just vanilla numbers.

So, if you have a strong opinion one way or the other, you can really uh you could really get after them. So, um

let’s see. Anything else, Bill? Anything you like in MLB or you know you know I kind of set back now

when uh from you from Major League Baseball a little bit. a little bit. But as far as going back to the football,

you know, on a prop, I have no problem with you going over a yard or two different compared to a side on a or a

total on a football game. If I tell you to go over 43 and it’s 45, I’m not going to tell you to go over 45. But sure

enough, uh like like Lovelin was over 27 and a half minus 15. Then I seen over 29

and a half minus 110. I have no problem uh doing that and and suggesting that in case uh people want to know about that.

Um, granted, you should have more outs. If you have more outs, you’re going to find I’m always going to release things

that are available at many places. So, I look at the DraftKings line, look at the FanDuel line, which many people have. A

big part of the public’s repertoire there is to bet those places. I sure wish I can bet in there. Um, a and uh,

so I try to give out an available line. Of course, I’m not going to give out something. Like I said before, I went off on that rant. Um, how about these

unders week one too? That’s another thing. So, if you look yesterday, the the first set of games, it looked like

NFL Kickoff Rule

they were all going to fly over. All the first halfs were going over and then 11 and two, I think. Um, even with this new

kickoff rule, which is totally totally insane. Um, you know, they 35. Well, I’m just

saying you only have to get you only have to get 20 yards and these guys are going for 60 63 yard field goals.

They’re trying to kick them 60 yards. So, you you didn’t like it. You you didn’t No, I’m just saying no, it’s okay. I’m

all I’m doing is stating fact that I thought these were going to I thought the NFL was going to take a while to

adjust and there was going to be a lot more points scored um in in in these games and and to not see it actually

surprised me. Um but you know I think I think people will get used to it and it’s fun. Listen, it’s conducive to more

scoring. They want more scoring. They want fans to have that retention. So uh but I was surprised of all the unders

that came in yesterday. Um, Bills Ravens the fourth quarter was just crazy too last night. That was just football, man.

Look look at how it you just toss a coin there. If you were to bet that game literally uh you know you could you

Bills vs Ravens reaction

could have won either sides if you have all different outs and you’ve been paying attention for months. You could have got to the lines either side you

could have had plus one and a half on that game. So, uh interesting games, a lot of fun and um yeah, no we got some

new stuff up there for wager talk. 200 bucks again. 199 for the month. I I don’t know. I I could have swore I

talked to the guys and they were discontinuing that Tuesday of last week. I don’t know. But I see it up there now.

So there you go. It’s I mean I’ve never had I’ve never charged less than $500 for a month. So uh there’s something to

get on. Jump on it right now. We’re going to have a lot of props. Week two, three, four, you’re going to get week five in there. And uh yeah, I’m sure

you’ll come back. So there it is. We got a we got a new one for you. We we got a new code for you. Uh crack wins

69. and it gets a week of your place for just $69. So, uh, we we we got it down to $10 a day. So, you want Bill’s Plays,

use the code crack wins 69. Just $69 for all of Bill’s plays, props, anything.

Usually, I wouldn’t show that money like that. That was a photo when I was going up to the window the other day to sign

up for the $100,000 grandimo. They wag your talk said, “Can we film?” I said, “Go ahead. I’m I’m bringing up 100,000

to.” And we had Denver in that grandimo. And boy, I’ll tell you what, that was a sweat. That was a sweat. Even though

they won by eight, let me tell you. Yes. Uh Tennessee was driving there at one time going to go ahead. That was a sweat

even. So, I don’t know. Now, that doesn’t mean Tennessee is better than people thought and it doesn’t mean

Denver is worse than people thought. Just any given Sunday, anything can happen. Absolutely. Bill Crackman, use that

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10 bucks a day. Bill, thank you so much. Can’t wait to do it again next Monday. Bill Crackman, everyone, uh, we got another special. If

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Steve Merrill. And this is weird, Steve. Normally we do this on Tuesday and you

Steve Merril

got a $5 bill coming across, but we’re going to talk. We could have we could

Yeah, we we got $5 Monday. Sure, why not? This is called foreshadowing. This is called I predict

I predict tomorrow on Tuesday, September 9th, will be a fantastic special offer at wager talk.com called $5 Tuesday. We

Steve $5 Tuesday Promo LOL

are less than We’re actually less than eight hours away. People don’t know this, Andy. A little insider information here. Monday

night, 8 o’clock Eastern is officially when $5 Tuesday begins. So tonight on Monday after 8:00 Eastern, right after

Monday Night Football kicks off, when you’re jonesing for more action, there will be some advanced $5 best bets

starting to trickle. A blank starts to trickle trickle onto the site at 8:00

Eastern Monday. $5 Tuesday sounds a lot better than $5 8:00.

$5 Monday night after Monday Night Football kicks off. Be there. Yes, absolutely. Market shut that one down.

Uh speaking of Monday Night Football, let’s talk it. Let’s get your breakdown for the Vikings and the Bears, of

course. Uh I mean, lots of stories here. JJ McCarthy making a start. We got new coaching in in Chicago. This is an

Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Free Pick & Analysis

interesting game here. It’s right around even. I mean, you can tell the books aren’t don’t have a strong opinion one

way or the other. Even that 43 and a half seems like a pretty pretty vague line. So, they’re leaving some

opportunities here if you got a strong opinion. What’s your breakdown on this game? Yeah, the only thing better than

$5 Tuesday is free Monday Night Football. And I did a video for this game a couple days ago. It’s online

right now. Uh deep dive breakdown for Vikings Bears. I’m going to give you the free play right here on Wager Talk today

as well. I like the Chicago Bears in this game as a live home dog. Uh Ralph Michaels was on last Tuesday right

before me here with you Andy on Wager Talk Today. And Ralph had that chart of NFL divisional teams doing very well in

week one. Uh 65% over the past decade. divisional dogs that is doing well in

week one. And it makes a lot of sense. Teams know each other well. They have the whole summer to prepare. And the team that’s often the weaker team makes

adjustments where the better team doesn’t have to. And I think that’ll definitely be the case in this game. Bears last year struggled. They only

outgainained four of their 17 opponents in total yards. Uh there was nothing misleading about that five and 12 losing

record, but they do have a new coach, Ben Johnson, and they’ve got the more experienced quarterback here. here. And one thing Ralph pointed out in that

chart last week was how good divisional home dogs have been. The real sweet spot. In fact, over the past decade and

a half, they were 18-4 against the spread. We missed out with the Atlanta Falcons in that role. Although that game

went off in a pick them yesterday, and we all know that could have gone either way. Atlanta probably should have won that game in my opinion. We did see both

the Cowboys and Chargers cover on Thursday and Friday night as divisional dogs. Uh Giants missed out yesterday.

The Lions missed out, but I had a best bet on the Packers. The Lions were the most public underdog on the board for Sunday. Uh so definitely did not like

that one. But this is a public uh a divisional dog rather, which I think is live tonight. And I’m going to go back

to something you said is about JJ McCarthy not only making his first start, he’s like throwing his first NFL

regular season pass ever. He only played limited preseason last year. He got hurt in the first game against the Raiders.

Missed the entire season his rookie year. And I believe he only played in one preseason game this year. Uh, so you

talk about Green Monday Night Football, hostile environment on the road against what I think is an improved Bears squad

with a new scheme, new coach, new motion, and then Caleb Williams. We’re getting the better quarterback, the more

experienced quarterback as a home underdog in a divisional game, which is a strong angle to start with. Uh, so I

like the Bears in this one. If you want a little added protection, um, they do probably make a pretty good teaser play

now that it’s sitting at plus one and a half. Uh, you can get them up to seven and a half or more. We’ve talked about

how week one is not ideal for teasers because the lines are a little softer. But if you look back yesterday and this

week in general, teasers have done pretty well. Philadelphia Eagles covered the teaser, didn’t cover the line. Uh

you look yesterday, Seattle one and a half two-point home divisional dog also covered the teaser, but did not cover

the two-point line. Lost by four. Uh the Broncos 8 to9 point favorite. They win by exactly eight. The most public play

of the week would have covered the teaser. Um, so you of course have to tie that up with some advanced games for next weekend in the NFL, but I like the

Bears. I think they’re a live dog, plus one and a half money line, and they make a pretty solid six-point teaser at seven and a half or more as well.

Let’s move to MLB real quick. Can’t forget about Major League Baseball. Let’s talk this Mets and Phillies. And I

MLB: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

was looking at the pitching matchups for today and tomorrow. And it’s amazing that two of the same teams can have such

vastly different pitching uh situations uh compared to uh just just like

literally 24 hours apart. So looks like we got Mlan for the Mets. He’s been sharp. Only four earned runs uh 26

innings pitch. We got What’s your take on this Mets Phillies? Yeah, it’s an interesting matchup

because they just played at the end of August about just over a week ago and Nolan Mlan made his first start against the Phillies in that game. In fact, um

he’s had very limited action this season. Overall, he has only four starts, but as you said, he’s been an excellent 1.37 RA and part of that was

an 8 ining shutout uh just two weeks ago on August 27th against the Phillies and

he gave up just four hits. So, he had their number. I do think they’ll have a little bit more of an edge this time after just seeing him. They’ll make some

adjustments. Uh but he has been fantastic. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has not been for the Phillies this season. Um

limited due to injury. He missed uh three months, was out in midMay, did not come back until mid August, and he was

awful in the debut against not my Washington Nationals on the road in mid August. He gave up six runs in just two

innings, and he hasn’t been much better since. Uh gave up seven runs over 12 innings his next two starts, and they

got lit up against the Brewers, maybe the best team in baseball last week, giving up six runs in just five innings.

Uh, so I need to see something from Nola. You know, a lot of times these guys struggle in their first couple outings and then they turn things on,

but he’s had four subpar outings now since coming back from injury. Overall this year, an awful 6.8 RA in 69 innings

of work, dude. And this is a guy that’s a pure fade for me. And by the way, the Mets current lineup tonight, uh, 285

career batting average, and that’s over 280 at bats, 80 for 281, uh, 285 career

average. So the Mets hit him well. Nola’s in bad current form. You know, the game total at eight and a half I

think has value with Nola himself giving up six and a half runs per nine innings and nine is a very key number. But if you want to take, you know, Mlan out of

the situation since he did shut down the Phillies, we can always look at a team total and get the Mets over four and a

half at almost even money. Um, I do think the Phillies over three and a half could be worth a look as well as I do

think they’ll hit MLAN better here this second time around. Uh, but once again, Mets over four and a half runs against

Aaron Nola has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. I think has some value tonight on Monday. And by the way, this is the MLB Network

National TV game at 6:45 Eastern. There are 11 baseball games on the board tonight and I’ve got nearly half of them

analyzed for my clients and for free. I’ve got three strong best bets tonight and I made a three for one triple play.

Don’t sleep on baseball in September. Last year I finished on an incredible 57 and 28 best bet winning run over the

final few months of the baseball season. I’ve also got a bonus play for one of your late games tonight um in the

American League and also a free play video on the other late game in the National League between the Diamondbacks and Giants right here free on Wager Talk

TV. So, lots of baseball still to be played the next couple months. Cash in big and this is your last chance to get

seven days all sports football and baseball for just $77. Steve Merrill wageralk.com and get there quicker.

wt.buzzm. What a nightmare year for Nola. Like

this poor guy, man. He should have stayed injured. Every time he steps on the mound, it’s

just like just balls flying out out of the stadium. So, uh, great work there, Steve. Uh, takeaways from week one on

your team. We’re So, Andrew’s team won, my team won, Dan’s team won, your team

won. Uh, how are you feeling? Not my Washington Commanders, which would mean if they win, I lose. Not

NFL Week 1 Takeaways

until they’re the Redskins again. But um you know there’s a lot of excitement obviously with them making the NFC Championship game last year. I’ve said

several times I thought the best play of the season was the Philadelphia Eagles last year in that game uh fading the

Commanders. I just couldn’t see them in the Super Bowl. I still think they regress this season and let’s be honest,

the Giants are expected to be one of the worst teams in football. Uh, we’ll see. A stiffer test this week for not my

Washington Commanders as they believe they play Thursday Night Football against a feisty little team called the Green Bay Packers. And um I will have a

free play video up. I might actually record it today, Andy, and it’ll be up nice and early probably tomorrow and Tuesday for that Thursday night game.

Um, but yeah, their defense looked okay. That was impressive. I thought the Giants would get a little more. The Giants had a chance to score late. They

were driving. Uh, one thing I will point out though, as we’ve talked about, is that week one is kind of week 4A of the

preseason still, and we will often see results in week one that do not correlate to the rest of the season. I

heard you talking about the Colts and Dolphins earlier. Obviously, that was just a blowout offensive game for the

Colts. We’ll see if that translates to the rest of the season. Um, but for the most part, I think things kind of went

as they should. Tough loss to end the weekend. We had the Baltimore Ravens last night. I also did a free play video

for everybody with the Ravens this week. you know, 16 points in the final four minutes they allow after a fumble from

one of the best running backs in history. By the way, the Ravens ingame had a 99% chance of winning straight up

with four minutes to go. So, if you had Buffalo, you had a 1% chance and you got it done. You know, we’ll see if that

Bills defense gets any better, if the Ravens offense is really that good, minus the fumble. Yeah, Derrick Henry, they had a live

line on his rushing. It was like 176 and a half and he was over it. Then on that fumble, they took away nine yards. And

so did they really? You had a you Yes. You had a winner and then all of a sudden you had a loser. Like wow. That might be the worst bad beat

from one of the worst bad beats in the history of Sunday Night Football. That’s a bad beat. Yeah. When you have the over on Derrick Henry, he gets over

and then they take away nine yards because of the once again one of the best running backs in history. He passed Jim Brown for

career touchdowns last night. That’s how good that And I consider, you know, comment in the chat. I consider Jim

Brown the greatest football player ever just because he dominated more at his time than anybody’s ever dominated. I

think that’s how you have to look at it. Um, so yeah, that’s just insane. But that’s the NFL for you. NFL is back.

Brutal. Brutal. Anytime the books need to win, it’s like they just do. Don’t go there. Don’t be getting

conspiracy on me now. Come on. Thursday Night Football. Just saying. Exactly. That was 172-1 to the

over. When the team had a 41 points in the half and the total was 50 or less, it was 172 to1 to the over. It’s now 172

to2. I think there’s a chance I had that other one cuz I know I had a game a couple years ago. It was like a Colts

game, I think, or a Lions game. We had like 40ome points at the half and it stayed under, but I think the total was like 52, so it might not have

technically qualified. Um, yeah. But by the way, Andy, real quick for the viewers out there, if we ever

get a situation like that again, that was one of the best in-game live betting opportunities ever. In hindsight, nine

touchdowns and field goals and a fumble before the delay and then five straight punts end of game afterwards. There is

no question that nearly 1-hour delay allowed the defensive coordinators to make the adjustments, the zigzag like we

see in the NBA playoffs. Now, it might not work in all games, but if we get a back and forth shootout like that that gets a weather delay here in the next

couple weeks, I think that in-game under is probably worth a wager. Yeah. Yeah. Bummer. Bummer, man. I lost

a 5% on under one and a half rain delays this week at minus7,000. My wife and Mary

did win. By the way, my team did make it right on Saturday. It’s actually almost Sunday. They won at 11:45 Eastern

because they had two 1-hour lightning delays. I hadn’t even gone to the stadium yet for either one because they kept kicking fans out

and that game went took there like 10 people in the arena. So, weather was wreaking havoc on the East Coast this

weekend and we might get some more of that. We got a couple more months of a couple more weeks of September. I I do

think that is a good betting strategy to look for the contrarian call. You know, however the game is going, look for the opposite after the long delay.

All right, Steve Merrill. Uh have a great Monday. He’s in uh in play in baseball tonight, so take advantage of

Steve Merrill over at wager talk.com. Dan, what what is this? Shots fired. If

you’re live, if you’re betting a live rushing total, it it won.

Dave Dave Mason hacked in and wrote that comment. That was Dave Mason. That wasn’t me. He was the one

actually won. It It did win until it didn’t. You never won and lost the same bet.

Yeah. Yeah. No, that’s that’s pretty brutal. That’s That’s pretty brutal. I just had I had to see if you were paying

attention to the chat, Andy. I was just a little warning shot across the there for you. All right. Well, while I got you on

here, we’re going to get I I want Dan’s I want I want Dan’s opinion on something

and then we’ll do all around the world. Uh give you guys some free. All right. So, Dan,

you’re you’re the representation of everybody that had Denver in their Survivor.

So, so lordy, the game starts and you’re like, “Oh no,

Bo Knicks is going to play awful today.” And then uh what was your thoughts when it’s fourth down? They’re like, “Well,

we could ice it with a field goal. We could punt it.” No, we’re gonna go for it and we’re gonna throw a Hail Mary

bomb to nobody. So, walk us through uh

what what was it like having Denver in the Survivor Bowl? All I know is it was our esteemed leader

who is it was a a Denver fan in Kelly Vegas. Kelly in Vegas who said if Bo

Nicks throws two interceptions, we’re all going to lose our Survivor play or at least or at least lose the the cover

if people were looking at at Denver Broncos. And that was just ringing in my head when I saw the first turnover from

Bonex. I was like, “Oh god, the the Denver hype that we were sold heading

into the season is biting them so hard in the ass right now because they’re

just playing down to competition.” And really, if you think of uh you know what what you’ve got with Shawn Peyton over

his entire career, World Beaters who they will play down to their competition. So, like why I expected

anything different was crazy, but all I had was visions dancing in my head, Andy, of what happened last year with

the Bengals when they were the team. And I said it with you on Friday when I said they could be this year’s Bengals,

right? Because it’s it’s that much of a slam spot. It’s a slam dunk. And whenever that happens, it makes me

nervous. But, uh, it wasn’t there wasn’t a there were several moments, Andy,

where I was like, “Holy [ __ ] I’m screwed.” But then I was like, “But the team they’re playing is so

bad.” Like they were doing nothing to make me nervous. It was only the Broncos that were making me nervous. So we got

it home, Andy. I was even towards the end of that Cardinals game for you. I was starting to sweat a little bit. I

was like, “Is Rattler really about to tie this game?” Like very Cardinal.

Yeah. Very Cardinalsy of them. Oh, we’re killing this team. Let’s let them back in it. Uh, lucky for me, I I don’t know

if you saw the last play. It’s like, okay, it’s fourth down. It’s the last play of the game. Maybe you should keep the ball in bounds, Spencer. You just

throws it out of bounds, out of the side of the end zone. But, but we had a great weekend.

We survived, Andy. We moved. We survived. We survived. Uh, I did. We We had um I put the Jags in several of

our of our picks on bet online. We used We used the Jags. Picking myself. So, the circa entry, we

end up going two and three because Falcons end up screwing us, Seahawks end

up screwing us, and we had the Dolphins. That was just a wrong side. But the one that I wanted to trade out for the Dolphins was Jags, and I really wanted

the Raiders in our entry. Uh, unfortunately, my cohort, uh, Adam, uh, you know, he gets the final say. He’s

the guy who actually went and got the proxy sign up, so he gets the final stamp on it. So, hey, what are you going

to do? Two and three. At least it wasn’t an 0 and5 week. doesn’t take us out of contention. Exactly. And there will be a five and0

week incoming and I will be insufferable when that happens. But guys, you can watch that every week. Every Thursday

we’re doing Let’s Make Millions, me and Adam Rosenberg sharing our circa millions entry card. So,

but Andy, we did survive. We survived. So, the I will survive story. We get the

graphic lives another week. The graphic lives another week. Uh I got that I got that 49ers team

circled against the Saints. Yeah. I don’t I don’t care that they got close to Arizona. They were

non-competitive in that game. It was terrible. Early early look for me too, Andy. I think I’m a satist for punishment. I

think I’m going to go back to the well on the Dolphins because nobody wants to bet the Dolphins this week. And and and here’s one thing

that went under the radar. You’re not taking them to win outright, are you? I think I’m They’re one and a half point

favorites. So if it’s if the contest line comes around to pick them comes around to one, here’s the thing for me.

Is the Patriots looked awful, too. But because of all the other crazy stuff that happened, that’s going under the

radar. And this is the come to Jesus moment. This is one of those plays where everybody thinks one way. I want to be

on the other side of the bar with myself, just sitting there dancing with myself. So, uh, so maybe that’s what

we’ll be doing. I haven’t put it in yet, but yeah, it might be a little dancing with myself special. And the Dolphins

may be a bet for me. All right. Well, let’s close out with All Around the World. Let’s do some free plays for

today. A couple of these come off of the uh wager talk free picks page. Uh we got a prop here for Monday Night Football. I

would look at Caleb Williams over 20 and a half pass uh completions the last seven games of 2024 with Ben Johnson was

Andy Lang All Around the World Free Picks (MNF & MLB)

with the Lions. Uh golf easily flew over this number. Now Ben Ben Johnson’s head

coach the Bears running game for the Bears not as good as the Lions. So, I I think they’re going to get Caleb comfortable with a lot of quick passes.

He had 18 and 32 completions in two games against Minnesota last year. I think they’ve upgraded everything there.

So, uh Brewers at the Rangers. Uh I that graphic is wrong. It’s supposed to say

Brewers money line. Sorry. Supposed to say Brewers. I have no idea why I typed Rangers on that one. That’s my bad. Uh

Quintana for the Brewers. He’s won four out of last five. Brewers are just crushing and uh they they uh they swept

their last series and they scored 10 runs yesterday. My apologies from the from the graphics department. Cubs Braves. Look at Elder over 17 and a half

outs. He’s gone over in six out of the last seven games. Last two games he’s went 21 outs. In the last game against

the Cubs, he went 21 outs as well. So, uh, take a look at Elder to go deep into that game. All right. Thanks very much.

Appreciate you guys. Uh, it’s been a great Monday. My $5 Tuesday play will be up at 8:00 tonight. Uh, it’s for

tomorrow, but I already know what it’s going to be. It’s the only play that I’m going to have up today for clients. We’re sitting out Monday Night Football

because we had a really good day in NFL yesterday going six and four on our prop. So, anytime you can walk out of

week one was six and four Sunday, you’re going to be really happy. So, we’re going to uh sit out Monday Night Football, but at 8:00, get ready. We got

a 4% uh play that’s going up for $5 Tuesday. Big discount on that one. Don’t forget to hit the like button on the way

out. Leave a comment in the comment section and subscribe to the channel if you haven’t. We have so many breakdown

videos of individual games for MLB, for NFL, for college football. It’s the the

place to be to get all the best information for your bets. Thanks very much. Good luck on Monday Night Football. We’ll see you again tomorrow.

Take care.

Follow the Money Podcast: Inside Today’s Winning Sports Betting Strategies

Urban City Podcast Group — Sat, 06 Sep 2025 00:14:15 +0000

Urban City Podcast Group

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This is Bend, the sports betting network. Always

follow the money. Follow the money. That’s what I always say. You can always follow the money. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss

and Paulie Howard on VN. Here we go. It is Follow the Money on

VON, the sports betting network. Mitch Moss, Paulie Howard with you here on a football Friday live downtown Las Vegas

from the Circa Resort and Casino, the biggest sports book in the entire world.

And we are loaded today. We will hit the week one slate in the National Football League. Latest point spreads, totals,

player props, survivor angles, injuries, college football games today. Who is on

upset alert this weekend? Chuck Edel on the program coming up in 30 minutes. He is the defending circa Friday Night

Football Invitational champion. He was two and one with us last week. He specializes in college totals. Both of

his winners were on totals last week. Mike Sich host in an hour his best bets for week

one. And uh we will talk Chiefs Chargers many times today throughout the show and

uh in 90 minutes that’s with Todd Lebo who covers the Chiefs for Sports Radio

810 in Kansas City. Paulie and that’s where we are going to begin. We will get to what happened last night at the back

end of uh win lose in this hour. But on the screen right now, Chiefs holding

steady as a three-point favorite. Uh I do see one three and a half out there as we speak. It looks like FanDuel has

minus 118 on the three. Most other spots are flat and uh the total now up to 47

and a half. A common narrative of course that you hear leading into every single season is how big is that Super Bowl

hangover going to be for the team that lost it. Well, how about this? Super Bowl losers have won six of their last

eight season opening games. Four and four ATS. It was really before this

current stretch when it uh was abysmal. They lost 12 of the previous 17 and they are two two and 15 ATS. So that common

narrative um early part of the century kind of out the window here lately and

you know we get into some of these numbers here but Andy Reid is also like dynamite in week one when he’s on the road. Paul

I mean they I I played them uh money line and I think they’re going to win because they’ve won seven in a row over

the Chargers and they’ve won 17 consecutive one score games and every time it’s close the Chargers find a way

to blow it 0 and N the last two years in games decided by three points or fewer. So, the games are close, but Kansas City

finds a way to pull it out. They’re going to try to win the division nine years in a row and get back to the Super

Bowl. So, you are exactly right with Reed. You’re right with the dominance in the division 51-9 against a division

going back. And I just think they’ll be able to have success moving the ball against this Chargers defense, which I

felt was kind of phony last year. We’ll get into the numbers coming up, but they only allowed 17 points per game. And now

you’re worried about, you know, Slater’s out, Beckton sick. I think there’s too much going on. And I think the Chiefs will come out of there victorious

tonight and get the win and cover. Yeah, when you look at uh the scores from last year, both of them really low scoring, 1917 the second time, 17-10 the

first time around, and the total now beefed up here to 47 a half. Uh Kansas City ran the ball a lot in those games.

Um in fact, they were running it like 25 times. They didn’t have a ton of success. The first game was 25 for 96.

the second game combined. Overall, they ran it 26 times for 101 yards and one

touchdown. The Chargers overall last year were an easy team to run the ball on, and that should in theory be the

case this year based on their overall talent. Um, and also, you know, they did

I I don’t want to say that they like went way over their skis with expectations last year because their win

total was either eight and a half or nine and they won 11. But also, they had like the easiest schedule based on teams

that they were playing in the entire league. It was super easy. Plus, they had a plus 12 turnover margin, which you

figure probably will not repeat this year. Yeah. And more now on Andy Reid overall, when the spread is in this range. So, with

Kansas City and the Chiefs are between a three-point dog and a three-point favorite, which is what they are

tonight, they are 50 24-1 ATS in those games. And how about this? in week one

on the road with Andy Reid as their head coach. This is neutral, but I’d still consider it like a road game for him.

They are 6 and0 ATS with Reed on the road in week one. I mean, this guy, the

whole thing about his career has been he’s like the best coach ever off a buy and you always want to be looking at

betting on his teams after a buy. That also like factors into like he has the entire off seasonason to prepare.

Y and so they come out in week one and they just, you know, are they’ve been automatic pretty much in this spot. Here’s what I was reading in the summer

about Warren Sharp and a Chargers defense. They played the sixth easiest schedule of offenses and the six easiest

schedule of quarterbacks. So, the numbers were phony and a little bit fugazy. Mchu benched young benched

Fields benched Knicks rookie. The heer Rattler combo Winston Levvice

May O’Connell. Who beat them? Mahomes, Murray, Jackson, Mahomes again, Mayfield

lit him up. Burrow lit them up, but they won the game. So that’s a one and five record against above average

quarterbacks. So again, I think just based on they always find a way to win.

They’ve owned them in the last seven. This the luck factor in the 17 consecutive one-score games, the fact

what this defense did against good quarterbacks. And it’s a great discussion, too, cuz I like him and you

like him. This is a game that Herbert usually doesn’t win. This guy is now 41 and 40, his career record as a

quarterback, and I know he’s had some bad coaches, but that stench and stink, but what happened in the playoff lost to

Houston when they were expected to win and and four interceptions and a pick six. He’s got to play well in these big

games and when the spotlight’s on, he’s got to uh do well and move the ball here and get a big win and see if he can get

a playoff win and take this organization to the next level. Yeah, I’m going to let this total breathe for a little longer.

That’s a good That’s a good I am with you on that one because if it if it keeps going up and it touches like 48 and a half or somehow like a 49, I’ll be looking at playing

the under. the last six times that these two teams have played, the under is 5-1 overall and going to be like more we saw

last year with like the lack of explosiveness um with Kansas City in the air and again like I talked about the

last two times that they played meaning last year they ran the ball more than 50 times combined in those two games and

Jim Harbaugh is a run first coach for sure. I just think we’re going to see potentially like maybe longer

possessions. Again, the divisional famili familiarity between these two teams could come into exist and more of

kind of like a grind out type of game rather than like an aerial shootout here that I think the market is kind of

expecting by bumping this total up. Well, you don’t know about the field either. It was a mess last year, although it was a high-scoring game, but

it’s, you know, if these guys are slipping out there on defense, it’s I got to see how that works as well. one

respected group uh bet the over earlier in the week as well was responsible for the move and plus it’s been a um

ATM machine going back chief second half unders and fourth quarter unders going back the last couple years too the

second half unders are 71% since 2023 for Kansas City and oh by the way Paulie based on what

you just said there’s nothing wrong with waiting to watch the game with your own eyes tonight to see if the field conditions are going

to be a problem or if they have it corrected from a year ago and you can maybe get involved with a total early if you see something like it’s not going to

be a problem or oh my god, here we go again. It’s going to be the Eagles Packers all over again. Uh have you done anything yet with Xavier Worley’s uh

Worley’s rushing prop? Yeah, over three and a half. You got over three and a half and a half. Yes. That’s a really It moved up.

Yeah. So, they give him the ball at least once a game. I think he can get that done today. And let let me know what cuz I got a question for you.

Okay. Cuz he had at least one rush in 14 out of 20 games last year. That includes the playoffs. Uh I I I graded this at

four and a half. 11 overs to that number last year against the Chargers. For what

it’s worth, he had zero carries in one game and one carry for five yards in the other. Go ahead. What’s your question? Well, no, Rice. So, I think he’s a big

part of the offense and they’ll see some uh imagination and creativity. So, what’s going on with the Chargers tight

end situation? So, you look and Dley’s number one and Conklin’s number two, but

Conklin’s got higher props. Anytime touchdown, receptions, yards,

all of it. Made a nice rapport last year with this league. He did and he was the bee’s knees for a couple weeks. So now even though he’s listed

ahead of him on the depth chart, the draft kings and some of most of the numbers are saying Conklin is going to

be the guy and not Dly here from a prop standpoint. Yeah. Okay. Good observation cuz I mean honestly like my head tells me the first

guy to look at there would be Dley. He’s very low at a manageable number of 15 and a half. Yeah. Yeah. That’s that’s two catches and he’s

going to go over that. But again, like what are the projected snaps for him compared to Conklin in the game tonight?

And by the way, they could go double tight end. So, both guys are going to get action here a lot in this game just

based on the Chargers injuries um on the offensive line. Mhm. Cuz they’re they’re probably going to need extra protection here uh for

Herbert when they’re going to be throwing the football. And I’m also which leads me to their pick overall in the first round

this past year, Omari and Hampton. Like what does his usage look like? I was looking at rushing attempts for him

tonight in the game. It’s 11 and a half, but now it’s getting a little juicy to the over. If you go back and look at

attempts by the lead back for the Chargers last year, now there was a split early on between Dobbins and

Edwards. Week one, it was 1110. Week two, they controlled Carolina the entire

time. It was 1817. And then from week three on, the lead back had 15, 14, 25, 14, 17, 14, 15, 11

carries all the way until late in the season. Mhm. And when they got in front of these teams, they were running the ball a ton.

So, do they get the lead tonight? And maybe that would be something that you could watch in play cuz with a lead, I’d want to bet Hampton’s attempts over. But

I also I’m trying to figure out like what’s going to be the split with Harris cuz he’s good to go. Yeah, I know. But he’s got the eye with

the fireworks with the fireworks incident in the eye. So, I don’t know how big they’ve been keeping that quiet.

Do you trust Harbaugh at all with whatever he says? No. And plus Beckton’s got the flu. That’s that’s another thing with the

offensive line. Yeah. Yeah. because I want to bet Hampton over 11 and a half, but I I you know, maybe that’s a again look for something live

or you’re better off waiting till you have a little bit more data here in the season to see how how that backfield split’s going to be.

I’m right back on the kickers. Dicker Dicker over one and a half. Yep. Well, be careful with the field on this

though. But if we have a good field, I think Dicker’s automatic play here. Top five worst beat with Elliot from 58.

Oh, how bad is that? One of the That’s a horrific beat. The fact that they even tried it. I know he made one the whole year. We got

Aubrey 53 in our back pocket. Sitting there the whole time. I was counting the money. Elliot from 58. Oh, it’s unbeliev. NFL

season underway and the edge goes to those with the best data. VSON Pro delivers real time. DK and circa betting

splits so you can see where the public and sharps are putting their money. The email recapping all the best bets, every

host, every guest, the dog videos, the pro tools, everything you need to stay ahead of the season. $9.99 or save 50%

with an annual subscription. von.com/subscribe today. Get in. Join the team, the prop analyzer, the website’s fire, all the

betting systems, bson.com/subscribe. Jump on board. We will dive into the Sunday slate

coming up next. Divisional dogs in this spot are almost 68% ATS going back more

than a decade. I will give you those details next here on Vsson.

If you’re serious about football betting, VS’s got your weekend game plan. Fridays at 7:00 p.m., it’s the

Circa Friday Football Invitational. Saturday morning, Von’s College Football Tailgate Show at 9:00 a.m. breaking down

matchups, props, and big time bets. Later that night, join the football contest show as the sharpest betting

minds give you their picks for Sunday’s game. And Sunday at 9:00 a.m., lock in with Mitch and Paulie on Von’s Pro

Football Tailgate Show. Your final stop before kickoff. Check out the full lineup at von.com and join us on the

Sports Betting Network. So Paulie, have you had a chance to read the VSON daily yet? Yeah, came in at 3:00 a.m. What’s Bill

doing up that late? Well, rumor has it it starts off with a 12-hour meditation session.

Then he just pours himself over film and live TV. Really focusing and taking it

all in. Bill’s in with the biggest insiders

talking trade secrets, strategies, the whole nine. Absorbing the info.

And then and only then can the writing process begin.

In Las Vegas, Bill’s late night becomes your early morning. Wake up to the very

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On the next, a numbers game. It is Monday. You know what that means during the NFL season. Guessing lines, a

tradition unlike any other. The object of this exercise to try to extract value from the upcoming week’s NFL lines. I

have not seen them. We recap last week’s games. We analyze the upcoming matchups. I guess Kelly tells me what the real

line is and we try to find the value within. Interactive guessing lines on

Mondays. A numbers game right here at Bon the Sports Betting Network.

Oh my

god.

Heat. Heat.

This is follow the money on V6. Sam, it’s good to have you on board. Thanks

for watching today on YouTube TV, listening on SiriusXM channel 158 or on any of the fine terrestrial radio

stations where you can find VSON coast to coast. Uh onto the games to uh coming up on Sunday. Steelers are playing at

the Jets on the screen right now. Two and a halfs out there on the Steelers still threes various juice definitely

shop around total. uh ticking down Paulie. I see some 38 and 1 halfs out

there, but I also see it as low as 37 1/2 and that uh you know when you expect a grind out game that can be in that key

number kind of range. Mike Tomlin, most of these numbers today are going to be from vin.com along with

uh maybe some other outlets as well, but the website here with the network is so good. Mike Tomlin 32-9

under the total as a road favorite. Yes. But as a favorite overall since

2018, 23 and 30 ATS, the totals have been at pure gold with this guy.

Yeah, I’m with our guy Phil Helmouth on this one. I I just don’t see how the Jets are going to score. And the other thing is the magic number is 21. This

from Evan Abrams. During his career, when the opponent scores more than 20 points, Fields is 0 and 21 straight up.

Hello. Can’t score, can’t throw. fall behind early, forced to play catchup. No good.

12 and 29 straight up. His career in the NFL. Should be some heat on Tomlin. Doesn’t

have a playoff win in in eight seasons. That’s unacceptable. So, I think uh Rogers is going to have a good year. I

think Metaf is going to have a monster year. I love the acquisition of Smith. I want to see how that looks. So, I don’t

want to cuz I know he was a target monster and how good he was in Miami, but I love the tight ends. I think the

running game will be fine. Can they protect Rogers? But I just don’t think there’s anything that the the Jets can

do with the lack of a passing game. Horrible, terrible news now with Tucker out for the year as well.

Oh yeah, big time. You lose an offensive lineman for the season. Uh that just happened the other day, but I think they’ll I

don’t I think they can get to 21 points and then that’s all she wrote. And I I think the Steelers are going to come

away with the W here to start. Rookie head coaches not great covering spreads at home over the last decade.

45.9% that’s 146 172 and 10 pushes overall.

That is what Aaron Glenn is looking at here in this game. I did bet Caleb Johnson earlier in this week over 17 and

a half rushing yards based on the number. And I am considering Steelers

in a in an ATS pickum contest. Yeah. And one of my partners wants to use him in Survivor. We’ll see how that

conversation goes over the next 24 hours. Metaf too low 53 and a half.

Well, I mean, the Jets do have a pretty good defense still. I’m not going to say it’s elite. I was absolutely

hoodwinkedked by all these out outlets last year telling me how good the defense was going into the season. They’re terrible.

Best secondary, best linebackers, best front seven. I fell for it and they were below average.

Yeah. So, um, Bengals at the Browns. This one I find ex uh extremely intriguing. Now,

how about this? Week one divisional home dogs since 2009.

18 10-2 straight up 24 and 6 ATS. Hello

plus 5 1/2. For what it’s worth, the Bengals in this

spot as a road favorite between three and seven points since 2015 are 17-1 straight up in ATS.

And Zack Taylor in this spot as a favorite between three and seven points. 20 and five straight up and uh ATS right

around that same number. I can’t get there with the Bengals, though. Oh, really? No, I can’t do it. There’s no way. Yeah,

you can I think I can I think Flaco can have a big year and he have a big a big game

rather uh to in this one. The other thing you got to consider is the it’s like the Colts Cleveland’s horrendous

week one. 323 and one straight up since 95. Oh god. So now you bring in Golden

supposed to help out fix this defense which was so bad. You got off to the slow start. You couldn’t win close

games. Burrow with an alltime year. Chase with an all-time year, still went nine and eight and couldn’t get in

there. But the fact that he has to give you pause, you’re right, what goes on with Taylor always with the slow starts,

but I think finally playing the guys in the preseason will get them over the hump here. And most people think the

Browns are either the worst team or the second worst team in the league. But first things first is can you

can you at least have a average or just not a horrendous defense and if you can slow down uh Flaco in this one. But I I

can’t I can’t recommend the Browns even though that that’s been so strong and everyone’s been talking about it for two weeks how great that’s been with uh home

dogs week one in the division. I’m 90% that I’m going to be on the Browns in an ATS contest over here. Um

here’s also another factor for this game to consider. Now, the Bengals, when you go back to last year, they allowed the

most receptions to tight ends per game and the third most receiving yards. Well, what does that mean for Cleveland?

David and Jooko, when you go back and look, when he played with Joe Flacco in 2023, the first game, not much. Two

catches, six yards. Okay, not going to get the job done. After that, and this will include the playoff game against uh

Houston when they got blown out. Injoku 6 for 91 two touchdowns 10 for 104 and a

touchdown 6 for 44 and a touchdown 6 for 134 in the final game of the regular

season and in the playoff loss to Houston 7 for 93 now it’s it’s a high

number this week it’s upper 40s but if Flaco has anything left

Uhhuh. Again, this is two years ago, so he might not. I don’t know. But if he has anything left specifically against

this really bad defense, don’t you want to target Injoku like in player props? And I haven’t seen

anything for the rookie, but Harold Fannon as well. That’s I would love Fannon. Yeah. Yeah. I did not see books posted earlier.

The other thing too, Cleveland went under their team total 14 of the 17 games last year. So, how bad that

offense was, but get some flacko fever, maybe a little magic, and what happened a couple years ago shocked everyone. So,

we’ll see if they’re able to do it here and at least keep it competitive and close. Uh, and then it’s an intriguing

game, but again, everyone’s been talking about the divisional dog numbers and uh how far you want to go back. But there’s

the 23 and seven since 2010 and then the MAC numbers, which Mitch just talked about going back since 2009, the 80%

run, right? So, those are home dogs. What about divisional road dogs? Well, then we’re talking Giants and Commanders.

Divisional Road Dogs catching 6.5. 6.5, listen to me, 6 1/2 points or fewer

are 17 and 14 straight up, 21 10-1 ATS since 2013. That’s 67.7%.

The Giants are also 5-2 straight up, 6-1 ATS. Last seven trips to Washington.

Brian Dable 19-8 under the total as a single-digit dog. and the commanders

here since 2017. I get it. New regime, new quarterback from last year, new coaching staff, but at uh against

divisional opponents, 16 and 32 ATS

too popular. A lot of good points on X about no one’s picking Washington. Uh that’s fair. A lot of Giants love they were so good

in the preseason. Also their issues in week one. They’ve lost five of the last six week one and they’ve been blown out

most of them. Remember last two years? Hello. the Dallas game what happened against Minnesota Danny Dimes the pick

six early that was pathetic. So I do like Scataboo anytime touchdown at plus

310 but uh you know a lot of this the variance the luck factor and can this

fourth down stuff continue with Washington love Quinn love Kingsberry I don’t think there’ll be regression with

Daniels but the whole McLaren situation as well what does Debo have left in the tank I just think and you I’m coming

around here I think the Giants can have a nasty defense I’m with you with Carter

and Tibs oh they’re going to have one of the best front fours in the entire league. Yeah. Yeah, Burns that they added.

That’s right. Tibido. You brought you Tibs. Okay. Sure. And they got they have weapons on offense now. We’ll see if the long shot

to neighbors is a good connection and that works out for them. So, I’d like to see the Giants hang in this one and and

see if they have can surprise a lot of people, but certainly the future’s bright for the Giants. But, uh, it does

give me pause with all the week one issues and how bad this organization has been. Not only week one, but all the

slow starts. Every year you, oh boy, the Giants are one and five again. What app season’s over? Oh, they’re one and four.

Another another poor start. So on on the screen right now, we’re looking at the betting splits. So you can look at at uh Circa and also

DraftKings. By the way, get this at von.com when you become a subscriber. von.com/subscribe.

You can check out uh the betting splits at these two sports books on every sport that they have. 90% of the handle on the

Giants here in Circa. But it’s early in the week yet, so that’ll correct itself um by kickoff,

I’m guessing. But I I told my one partner who uh in Survivor who wants to play the Commanders, I said, “You’re

going to have to fly to Las Vegas, wrestle me to the to the ground, and break my legs if you want me to submit

Washington in a Survivor play. There’s no way I’m doing it.” Yeah. Well, I’ll look elsewhere. And I My wife

is in the contest this year. All right. So, now she’s picking my brain. And I said, “If I give If you ask me for

advice and it loses and if you blame me for one second, we’re done. We’re finished.” Yeah. Uh I didn’t go that far, but I did say,

“You can’t do that. You can’t blame me if I give you a pick and loses. And I said, “Look, you can take Washington might win 30 to nothing. I don’t know.

Nobody knows, but there’s no way know how I’m playing them.” She wanted my advice in the game. That’s what I told

her and that’s what I’m telling the audience right now. Yeah. Okay. I hope they can hang around. I’ve done a 180 on them. So, I hope I

hope the Giants can make this interesting. Uh, our betting splits cut through the noise, pulling real-time data straight from Circ and DraftKings.

They track the percentage of bets and handle on every game across every major sport to make sharper, more informed

bets. Start your edge today just $9.99 to vent.com/subscribe von.com/subscribe.

Where are we at here with the T? What’s going on? Alcarz won the first set. Three nothing Joker in the second set.

Okay, we got a good one here. All right, the rally is on, eh? Yes.

$4 Alcarez almost. Big one. Did you bet this at all?

No, just wanted to watch it. I can’t believe they’re starting it at Pacific and the center match is at is at 4. I’ll say one thing. The uh the Osaka

match last night was awesome. I enjoyed it.

This was empty. I get it’s midnight, but come on. All right, Chuck Edel on the program coming up next. Two and one last

week, both of his uh college totals cashed. Who was he on this week? Find out with us coming up on Follow the

Money. It’s Vind Sports Betting Network.

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Ooh. Heat.

Heat.

by high by high by high by high by high by high by high by high by high by high by high

Heat. Heat. N.

Heat. Hey, heat. Hey, heat.

This is Bend, the sports betting network.

This is Follow the Money on Vand. By the way, coming up tonight after us,

7:00 Eastern, 4:00 out here on the West Coast, it is week one of the Circa Friday Football Invitational. Matt

Humans and 25 handicappers go for Derek Stevens money that he is putting up at

the end of the year. And uh it’s a fun contest, a lot of great action in it, a lot of great handicappers that you can

trust throughout the year. uh none other than this guy. I mean uh no more than this guy that we have on the program

right now as professional sports better Chuck Edel joins the program and he is going to be on tonight following us at 7

o’clock Eastern, 4:00 Pacific for a full hour with Matt Humans right here on VON. Chuck, uh thanks for the time as always.

How are you today? I’m doing great. Uh thanks for having me. Two and one last week in this spot. Uh,

three college games obviously as the NFL wasn’t back quite yet and 2 and 0 with your totals. Surprise, surprise. You

love going at it with the college football totals. And what do you want to do this week? Uh, this is the what the

the noon kickoff on Fox tomorrow. So, it’s Iowa and Iowa State. Always a

mustwatch between these two teams. They know each other obviously exceedingly well. The total here on the screen,

Chuck, between 42 and a half and 43 and a half. Uh, what do you want to do with

this game? Yeah, I’m going to go against the grain what you normally would think here, but

I I am going to go over in the game. Uh, this is a different type of Iowa team than we’ve been watching for for a while

now. They have uh they they have a quarterback and they haven’t had a quarterback for for a long, you know,

for a long time. I can’t remember how long it’s been, but they got uh Granowski here at the quarterback. He he

played for South Dakota State. Uh transferred over here. won the championship with with South Dakota

State over there and they’re finally going to have some confidence in offense in throwing the ball and uh you know

they’re going to play faster. You know, they played last week. Now, they beat Albany, but they they they ran 69 plays.

It was against Albany, but they weren’t rushing to play, you know, and you know, they had a nice lead most the whole

game. They dominated the game. Last year, Iowa was one of the slowest teams in the country. So, compared to that 69

plays they ran in that Albany game, they ran 58 plays a game they averaged last year. And, you know, that’s that’s a big

difference. Now, when they’re playing a competitive game here in Iowa State, I expect them to, you know, reach right

around that 6970 mark. Iowa State, meanwhile, they do play at at a good

pace. Uh they average 70 and a half plays a game this year. It’s only two games, but that’s about what they

averaged last year. 31 points a game they average in in for the season. And

listen, this this Iowa State, it’s going to be a good good game. Iowa State as their quarterback who played well last year, Roco Beck, he threw 25 touchdowns

last year. So, you know, the total was 35 last year. So, it has they have made it adjustments obviously, but I think

they’re I think uh they haven’t adjusted quite uh enough for this one. I you

know, they’re still looking at the slow play, methodical play of Iowa, how they like to just run the ball and and use

the clock. So, I think they’re a little off on the number here and I I think you going forward you probably won’t be able

to get the number, you know, as low as it is right now. So, I’m going to go over that total. All right. Very good. Another total NFL

now. Rams against the Texans. Texans have a great defense. Rams also defense

was phenomenal down the stretch. The concerns about Stafford’s back says he’s good to go. We’ll see what happens if

there’s a big hit on him. You played under 44 in this game. Take us through your thoughts on this one.

Yeah, like you said, Paulie, I mean, Stafford’s been dealing with the bad back all summer. You know, the he he’s

37 years old now, so he’s not getting any younger and uh obviously there’s a lot of talk he’s got two good wide

receivers with Nua and Adams and and there’s a lot of hype and I think that also helped push the lineup a little

bit, but uh they’re going to be tested by a really strong Houston defense. Houston,

you know, they they rush the passer. They play very good in the secondary. They were fourth in the NFL last year in

sacks. They were first in defensive completion percentage holding teams down. So, uh, Stafford’s going to get

hit. You know, we’ll see how he responds. But with this Houston, you know, with this Houston defense, that’s

the strength of their team right now. Uh, I I believe that Stafford is, you know, definitely going to be running for

his life a little bit. They can run the ball the Rams a little bit, too. You, you know, and and Stafford when healthy

has looked good. But Houston, even against the top offenses last year, really kind of kept those teams in

check. It was basically their offense, Houston, that struggled. You know, they the offensive line last year was

terrible and and and Straoud was running for his life. They did rebuild the offensive line this year, but it’s it’s

still a work in progress. It’s going to take them time to gel and uh I don’t think that uh you know that that they’re

going to have a lot of success against a Rams young defense, an improving defense. And you got Mixon’s out. Chubs

in. I’m hearing Chub’s not 100%. He’s going to play, but he’s not the running back that we’ve been seeing over the uh,

you know, over the, you know, before he got injured. And, uh, so I I do like this game to go under the total.

All right. Very good. You know, I was looking uh, based on a lot of the stuff you were saying right there. And when I was looking into this game earlier this

morning, I was looking for a prop in this game, Chuck, on how many combined sacks we would get in this game. I looked at countless sports books. I

didn’t see one. I think both quarterbacks are going to be under some uh pressure here. I agree. You’ll see it up. You’ll see it

up either tomorrow or Sunday. And you know, it’s probably going to be in the four four and a half range. I I agree with you there on the I think both the

defenses here are going to are going to put pressure on the quarterbacks. We’ll see how this Houston offensive line, you

know, they really struggled last year. They they did change a lot of guys around, but the offensive line is one

thing. It it takes a lot of chemistry. It takes a while for them to gel. So, we’ll see how they go. You know, Rams

have that young aggressive defense, too. They’ll be tested. All right. It’s all about cash and tickets, and I know uh we love that

you’re a Chicago guy and uh you love the Cubs. So, is it might be difficult here

to get to the window on the Packers. As a Chicago guy, are you buying the Packers hype and the second choice to

win the NFC now after they acquire Parsons? And what does that mean for week one, laying two, three at home

against the Lions? Yeah, I mean the first thing here with

the, you know, with the Lions, I’m looking at maybe I think the Lions are going to drop down a little bit here. I

I you know, the loss of coordinators and obviously Ben Johnson a big loss.

Uh he you know, he called the plays last year. He had a very creative offense and you know, I expect I expect their

offense not to be, you know, as they were last year. I mean, they he you know, they he had the talent there and

they still do have the talent. They did lose some guys on the offensive line, but I think uh they’re going to drop

down a notch with both coordinators being gone. And uh they got, you know, you know, the one thing Green Bay did do

and part of the reasons they did get Parsons, Green Bay knows they have to beat Detroit. They they’re trying to

build the team now to build Detroit. G he struggles when there is pass pressure

on him. I mean, if he if you give him time, he’s one of those guys who could beat you up really good. But if you

could figure out a way to put pressure on golf, and I think that’s when they bring Parsons in, I think that’s the

main reason they bring him in because to put pressure on him. I’m hoping he’s going to play, you know, decent amount.

He’ll probably play in the passing situations this game Sunday. He’s not going to, you know, he’s still, you

know, basically missed the whole, you know, preseason. He, you know, so he he’s still getting in shape, but you

you’ll he he’ll be out there. I know there was a lot of talk about his injury and stuff, but he’ll be out there playing and uh I think that we’ll see

here. I I like the Green Bay. I love the floor as a coach. I think he’s one of the more underrated coaches out there. I

and I give a big coaching edge here to the floor, you know, in in the game, period. And uh the Green Bay at home, I

I think that uh you know, it looks like a solid two out there right now. And that’s kind of what I laid I was a little late to the dance, but I do like

Green Bay in this one. Very strong. So, when you’re on tonight, 7 o’clock Eastern, four o’clock Pacific. Uh, can you tease the audience here how

many college totals you’re going to have for the contest? Yeah, I I’m gonna they they they only

let us have four totals on the uh for the contest. That’s you only could use up to four totals and I’ll have four

totals. Well, very good, Chuck. That’ll rule. That’s what it is. Yeah, sure. They

snuck that into the fine print on you, Chuck. Geez. Uh, all right, pal. Thanks for totals next week, too. I’ll have some

totals for for us here next week as well. I just was a little behind on my work, but we’ll have some totals next

week. Very good. I can’t wait to watch uh and figure out what you’re going to be on tonight. Thanks for the time. Good luck.

Thank you. All right. So, he won it last year. By the way, if you want to be in the Average Joe contest, this thing has

absolutely exploded this year, Paulie, with how big this has gotten. If you win the Average Joe contest, you get

in the Friday Night Invitational with guys like Chuck Edel automatically next year. You could qualify automatically. You’re

in. Huge. Go to von.com/joeto today. It’s free to play weekly and

quarterly prizes. Again, the winner that’s think about that for a second. Not only will you have like the bragging

rights this year, you can win some of those prizes, which are awesome. Go to von.com/jo to check it out for yourself,

but then if you win it, you get to play in it. And by the way, Weston, guy in

the cornfield, friend of the show, he was the first participant in it two years ago, right? When they said, “Maybe

we should have an average Joe in there.” Weston got in, did really well. Guess how he backed it up last year. What was

it? A top five finish out of Weston a year ago. So, phenomenal stuff and uh like more

than 3,000 again. Way more than 3,000. But be in it. And if you’re the best, that’s going to be like pounding your

chest time for the as long as you’re alive. These late games are so good. And the fact that Detroit has won three in a row

in Lambo and beat Green Bay six of the last seven. I mean, Salpal had that great point Wednesday. You know, Packers

were a playoff team. They went 1 and5 inside the division. And both coaches have been great to start. Campbell 11

and three ATS in September. And Laflur 15-3 ATS first three games of the

season. What a matchup to start. All right, up next, we’ll get to win some, lose some. Will the uh we’re going

to discuss the aftershocks felt felt from the Cowboys Eagles game last night. How bad was the beat on the over? How

about this? It was 172-1 over the last 20 years under this scenario. You can make it 172 and two. Paulie with all the

details coming up next here on Vsson.

As sports fans, we may cheer for different teams, but there’s one thing that we can all agree on. We want the

game to be big. And with three levels, 30 cabanas, a 143 ft screen, six clean

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Check out Stormmy and JBT on Money Moves, only on VON. And maybe that’s why they wouldn’t

because they’re the Giants and they don’t do things that make sense. Out of all these divisions, this is the one that I am the most curious about because

I do think there are positive signs for the Bears. They’ll take you on a fun, fast-paced journey, weaving in everything you need

to know to make an educated bet while also not shying away from the excitement of a same game parlay sweat. Money moves

weekdays at 2 p.m. Eastern on VSON, the sports betting network.

Hey,

blue.

Heat. Heat.

die

down. Every

Hey, hey,

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Heat. Heat.

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the rain.

Win some, lose some is sponsored by the Sharp Plays. Were you a winner last night? Wow. Winning.

Or was it a rough one? Well, they can’t all be winners, can they? Loser. You’re a loser. Paulie Howard recaps the night in sports

betting in winome, lose some. We had it all. A 1-hour delay. Carter rejected before the first play.

Looked like the Cowboys were going to come back. Big tickets cash too. Scoreless quarter

plus 410 here at circa. Most rushing yards in the game. Herz 10 to1. First

touchdown Williams 13 to1. Two touchdowns. 15 to1. Both teams to score

in the first quarter. Yes. Plus 145. Eagles win between 1 and seven points plus 240.

No touchdown passes in the game. Good job by Shelby by the way who runs

the uh fans of VO Facebook page. Nice bet on Williams at 15 to1 to hit those

two touchdowns. Yep. Got it coming up. Eagles uh Herz no touchdown 3 to one. Zack Dak no

touchdowns plus 320. Dak no interception plus 140. One turnover in the game. Dak

made an incredible tackle. It’s probably a house call. Scoop and score. The big Sanders fumble.

I think because of the deflections last night as well, he probably could have had like three INTs that were not his fault. Yeah.

But I know you have the Lamb here too. Lamb could have had 200 yards last night. Absolutely. Dallas should have won that game.

Easily could have won it. He had three drops. I like what Collinssworth said at the end. Tough catch, but catch a ball.

Yeah, that was a very difficult catch, but the one where Dak hit him just in stride. It was such a Oh,

yeah. I mean, they’re in the red zone with a chance to win. He drops it. Hurts two touchdowns plus 320.

And the Aces did it again. We love the spot. We mentioned that briefly yesterday. They’d won 12 in a row. They

were home dogs against the Lyns. The last loss was the worst home loss in the history of the WNBA. And I can’t I

didn’t see a price on this. Golden State clenched a playoff spot. I think that’s the first expansion team in WNBA history

to make them to make it, but I didn’t see a price on it. Subscribe, be part of the team, be bon.com, our radio and

podcast friends. You always want to see these tweets and videos at Paulie does Vegas on Instagram. Send them in. We’ll

put you on. Here you go, Shelby. Great job. won $4,000 on that. Williams, two

touchdowns and the under one and a half shorts touchdown cashes. No problem.

Great job to cash that. Good job. Phil Helmuth in studio yesterday. I couldn’t

believe this. We asked him could he stick around for another segment. He goes, “No, I have to catch a flight.” 3:30. He got out of here at what? 2:55.

250. He got out of here. Well, he said right there he left at 2:43. So, are you saying like what time did he actually

get in the taxi at circa? Yes, probably about 2:50 or something like that. Yeah, he made it to the airport in time.

That’s got to be at that time of day. That’s got to be a 25minute trip. I thought for sure he was flying JSX or

something. 100%. I mean, it’s the Southwest. There he is. Great job, Poker Brat. Well done. And all the

halibit talk yesterday. My cousin Mikey, you we I think we have a record here.

170. How 177 is it? It’s a teenager who caught it. Yeah. The fish is uh I don’t know one and a half times bigger than he is.

Look at the size of that thing. That That is Well done. Oh my god. Oh my. What a what a thrill.

How long does it take to reel that thing in? I I mean it took me 15. And when we were fishing and I caught that one, we were

in I believe 300 ft of water. So you got to be out there like in, you know, deep sea basically.

Yeah. So, it’s going to take I mean, if if the fish if that fish is 177 lbs, how

much is the kid to his left? Mhm. 140, right? Maybe it’s going to take him It’s got to

be at least a half close to a half an hour if he didn’t get any help. Deep sea fishing Paul 177 lb halibit

outweighs him. Could be a world record. Thanks for Dan who sent it in. That is the best eating fish uh there is

in my opinion. Yeah, I love it. Randy McKay did it again in town for the signups, all the

contest. He’s in Grand Dimo. He sits down before the Cowboys game. Delt four to the Royal, $5 denomination. He gets

it. $20,000. Okay. Now, would you like the story on this? The the brief background story on

this? Sure. So, I hung out here at Circa after our show last night to watch at least the first half of the game. I ran into him.

As soon as you text me, he you’re like, “Randy did it again.” 5 minutes later, I saw him walking down here. He’s got a

grin from ear to ear obviously. And I said, “You popped it again.” Yeah. He goes, “You want to know why?” Wilbo

here, big balls. Yeah. Would not allow him behind the fence here or the rope to sit and watch with

Derek. Said there’s no room. Can’t have you. Oh, really? So he said, “Okay, whatever.” Decided to

go upstairs in high limits cuz there’s a TV up there in high limit. He sat at one of the machines so we could see the TV and that’s the reason why he hit it.

Unbelievable. McKay, are you kidding me? Yeah. And last year he comes to town, he hits a $20,000 Royal here. He goes

across the street to the gate and hits one for 8,000. Lose some. Delt four, by the way. You knew he was

going to pop it. I never get that. Never. How about Caitlyn Clark out for the season? She played 13 games.

That’s rough. But the groin, it’s a groin injury. Incredible. Oh, lose some video. I I’m afraid of

heights. I I would never do this. Look at this ride. It’s like medieval times. What? Like where the like a damn slash

Lord of the Rings thing going on here and it just spins you over and over and over again. Oh, I’d lose my lunch. I

mean, that is No way. You couldn’t pay me to go on that thing. See, I like rides quite a bit. That doesn’t even look fun. How is that

enjoyable? I know. I I Exactly. We were talking to Big Web and he was out here and his his

girlfriend’s daughter, they were going to bungee jump off the stratosphere again. There’s just no Come on.

It’s a hard pass. No way. Bad beats. Are you kidding me? The over 46 up to 48 whenever you got

it. I mean, there wasn’t a point scored after the delay. Three points in the

second half. It’s the first time in 30 years that on

the first eight drives there were points and then the last eight drives no points scored.

Uh-huh. And what what’s your big boy here? NFL games over the last 20 years with a

total set at less than 50 that had 40 plus points in the first half were 172

and one to the over. Evan Abrams checking in. Yeah. Now 172 and two

in the second half. That’s it’s incredible. We were talking about this uh out here watching the game like what

did no punts pay in the first half. I doubt you could find that but no punts for the game you absolutely could have found and you were looking great at

halftime. That’s right. I think that we got up to like the 68 in play. 69 in play I think

with that total. Longest field goal made in the game. The numbers we ran down yesterday.

Again, Aubre’s the most accurate kicker in history from 50 plus 90% from 50 plus. 53 no problem. And then Elliott

who made one the whole year from 50 plus. He trots him out from 58 which I

couldn’t believe and he nails it. I would have liked the information though before. Oh, it’s a We talked to the

Eagles. It’s a whole different guy. Completely different kicker now. The the camp that he had. Well, either way, but still. But still,

but it doesn’t matter. I’m still betting that at even money. I I just had to laugh that it was a loser. It’s an automatic bet. I’d do it again tonight

if they played again. Yeah, I mean we got 53 banked and I’m we’re sailing sailing to a winner. Tried them

out there for a 58 y. Can’t believe it. Boom. Pirates Dodgers under seven. 5 nothing in the ninth.

Bullpen uh blows it. They won the game, but 5-3 final with Pittsburgh sweeping the Dodgers

before the line moves. Sharp plays already there. They don’t just follow the market. They help move it. You’re not going to outsmart or out muscle

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2011. Documentary results, public logs, transparent receipts. Sharplays.com, trusted by pros, watched by the books.

Visit sharpplays.com and stay ahead of the line. Did you happen to listen to uh Dak Prescott after the game?

I was watching it live. So was I. And immediately, I mean, look,

never BS a BSer. Yes. Right. Just my antenna went up immediately. Like, dude, you played a

great game. You deserve better than that. Your passes were like phenomenal. On point, and CD Lamb kind of let you

down. Yeah. Kind of. What he said in the game right before it happened about spitting uh about Jaylen

Carter, I spit all the time. Probably a thousand a game. Thousand times a game. And you know, I wasn’t spitting at him. I was spitting at the ground. I wasn’t I

was like, get out of my way. I don’t want to spit on my teammates. That kind of thing. When they zoomed in and had that second look of when he spit and he

goes over his like teammates in between their shoulders and like that at him and then he gives him like that look, that

cocky look, but you didn’t do it on purpose. You weren’t trying to like antagonize him

and they got the second spitter. That’s it. Yeah. Go. Now Jaylen Carter, what’s he doing near

the huddle? You could obviously blame him, but so then he retaliates. Prescott’s like, “Did you see that? Come

on, you got to do something.” Well, right in front of the ref. And that’s Yeah, he might get suspended. But I agree. Can you imagine? He misses the first two

games of the game. It could happen. But the other thing is something has to happen to Dak, too. Of course it does.

It’s like, oh, his explanation afterwards was just ridiculous. It was the biggest line of BS since the

Tiger Wood story or maybe Steve Balmer yesterday, whichever one. But that was the same

thing.

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