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Major Takeaways:

  • Sharp money is already moving Week 2 NFL lines, with early action on the Colts, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys, and Chargers, indicating significant overreactions to Week 1 results.

  • For Monday Night Football, analysts are split but see value in the Chicago Bears as a live home divisional underdog against a Vikings team starting rookie QB JJ McCarthy.

  • In MLB, fading a struggling Aaron Nola is a popular strategy, with plays on the New York Mets’ team total looking strong against the Phillies.

NFL Week 2 Odds, MNF Picks & MLB Best Bets: Wager Talk Analysis

 
Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. This is Wager Talk today. I am your host Andy Lang. It is Monday.
Jumping right into NFL week 2 with a look at the opening lines. We’re also going to talk Monday Night Football. JJ
McCarthy making his debut. On top of that, Mets and Phillies are playing today. We’re going to break that down.
Giani is going to join us with the Steam Report. See where the money’s going uh for tonight’s game as well as this
upcoming weekend. Crackman’s gonna join us. We’re going to talk MLB or Monday Night Football. We’ll get his thoughts
on week one and Steve Merrill’s going to join us. He’s going to give you a deep breakdown of Monday Night Football and
then he’ll talk Mets and Phillies. We’re also going to take a look at what’s the overreactions from week one, where the
books won, where the betters won, and who were the big winners in props and fantasy football. Thanks so much for
joining us. Hope everyone had a great weekend. Hit that like button while we bring in Giani and get the Steam Report
and leave us a comment in the comment section. Gianni, happy Monday. I know it
was a busy busy weekend. Hope everything went well. I’m coming off a nice six and four day in NFL. You give me 60% winners
every Sunday. I’m a happy happy man. How are you, sir? Wonderful, man. It’s been a a great start to the football season. Exactly as
I expected. I just hit refresh now. Currently number one in NFL and college football combined for 2025, up almost 50
units. And uh yeah, we’re just starting. If you’re not on the college football getting the college football action,
you’re missing out. Um, I I sent my subscribers, not for the daily guys, but I sent my subscribers almost what an
entire day of my stuff looked like. Just they voted yes. They wanted to see it. So, I gave them so much volume on
Saturday so they see what a betting syndicate actually looks like over a couple hours. The amount of plays that
they fire. So, it was a eye openening experience for them. And it turned out well. When all the dust settled, we
turned the profit. Overall, um, really good. Really good over the last couple weeks has been good. And now just move on to next week. Bottom line, the past
is the past. What we do ahead is what matters most. I don’t have the heart for for all the
plays that they do. My my my heart can’t can’t take it. Just give me some of my props and my random plays and uh I’m
happy. I Yeah, everyone style’s different. It’s We all have different like risk tolerance. We all are are able to handle
things differently. Like for me, it’s more nerve-wracking like zeroing in on one play and needing that one. You know
what I mean? It’s just everybody approaches it different. It’s what works for you where you’re able to be optimum.
I think that’s what you stick for. Whether it’s low volume or high volume, I don’t think there’s a a a correct approach. I just think it’s in what
helps you become a profitable better and that’s what you should stick to. Yep. Stay in our comfort zone. Uh let’s
take a look at Monday Night Football. To me, this is a pretty tough one when you got a quarterback making a debut like
that. You got new coaches and everything. Uh what’s happening here in this game? Well, no surprise. We saw some uh money
come in on the Minnesota Vikings early um like you said the the the question marks um for the Chicago Bears even in a
divisional game even um being at home. Uh but since then we saw some takeback
on Chicago and it’s good two-way action. Like this is the kind of game you want to book um where you’re getting good
two-way money. Um the the opportunity to get middled really isn’t there. Um,
we’re also seeing under money from the recreational bers, which is a little surprising on a prime time standalone
game. They usually like to bet the favorite and over on those. Um, but historically, this has been an under
series. I think if you look at the last five or six, maybe only once. One time last year, one of the games went over.
Otherwise, it’s been a lowercing series. And I think that’s why you’re starting to see the under money come in from the
betting public. It’ll be interesting to see if the total starts reflecting that because you saw kind of a half point
movement towards the under. Uh but not much respect at all. So it definitely wasn’t short money that’s betting it.
It’s recreational bers betting the under. And like I said, it’s good two-way action. Some of the risk that the books have, they definitely have
some risk on Minnesota from some of the parlays um from yesterday, some of the
money line parlays and also some teaser liability as well. Um, right now you can
tease Chicago up through if you could get one and a half, you could get them up to seven and a half. That’s a plus CB
long-term profitable teaser. Um, but I think a lot already had Minnesota in
their teasers from yesterday because Minnesota’s decided they wanted to bet, which again doesn’t make sense, but they
feel a little more comfortable getting Minnesota at plus five or six, depending on what teaser they use. But I highly
recommend don’t tease. Even when it’s a standalone game, don’t tease totals. There’s a couple rules you stick by with
teasers and you’ll do just fine. Don’t lay more than 125 for a six-point teaser. Try to go through uh 3, six, and
seven only. Don’t bet numbers. I mean, teams bet numbers and uh don’t tease
totals. So, in a game like tonight with Monday Night Football, if you don’t have something to tease already for next
week, forget the teaser. Don’t tease it to the total. You’re not getting any added value. You’re better off straight
betting. Well, it had to be a huge week for teasers. I mean, oh yeah, all the all the all the all the most popular ones. I
mean, I’ll ask Dave Mason about it later this week, but teaser, it had to be teaser central. Uh
killed on those. I narrowed down those Wong teasers that based on the closing line and there were five that qualified, four of them
cashed. Um only one didn’t and that was it. And that was Detroit against Green Bay, you
know, the blowout. Otherwise, every other leg covered. So, when you have a week where all the teasers hit, what do
we do next week? Because it feels like the numbers are going to end up regressing to the medium. So, let’s take
a look here at week two and look at some of these opening lines. Uh, anything of note.
Well, Indianapolis Colts getting money now. The Indianapolis Colts were the forgotten team. Um, talking about them
over the summer, they were getting no action at all. like no one even cared whether bet them to make the playoffs, not make the playoffs, overseason win
totals, underseason win totals. The books were really not booking much uh Indianapolis Colts. And yesterday after
that win, you saw money come in immediately and grab that three and a half on Indianapolis. They also took the
one on Philadelphia immediately. They laid the five with the LA Rams. Immediately, laid the three and the four
with the Dallas Cowboys after that one got dummy down a little bit and also took the LA Chargers who’d looked
phenomenal on their prime time standalone um week one game. So, it’s Colts, Philly, Rams, Dallas Chargers
already seeing some sharp money for week two in the NFL. Remember, this is one of the most advantageous weeks for betters
because we’ve only had one game played and yet we have six game week six days to analyze it and there are a lot of
conclusions that are going to be drawn off simply 60 minutes of football that just aren’t warranted. And that’s where
I think you’ll be able to take advantage of recency bias, none greater in week two because of the overreaction and no
data really to support it behind it. So, it’s all projecting. And when you’re going out on that risk curve, you kind
of want a a better return than lane 11 to win 10. But you’re going to see a lot
of opportunities to to turn a profit next week just taking advantage of some of that recency bias. Uh because again,
we only had one game played and a lot of analysis on that 60 minutes. As somebody that lives in Indianapolis
and watches the Colts and follows them, can I just say calm down? Calm down.
called block called day. You said Colts Super Bowl. Block. My Chargers future looked good. Go Chargers. Go Chargers.
That’s that. Yeah, I bet you got the way best of that number uh at this point. Listen, I’m rooting for the Colts. I’m
just saying let’s wait until they play a team with a pulse. Let’s Let’s just wait and see before we back up the BR. Never
forget the Saints last year. Uh did they win their first two games? Exactly. Came out looking like on fire.
Billion bucks. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, what, uh, what do you think was good for
for the betterers besides the teasers over the weekend? What, uh, what what did you see? I The under was what spoke
to everybody, I think, in that, uh, Pittsburgh Jets game. I know that was a big one for the books. What did you see
that the the Wise guys steam that one as well. They were steaming the under first half
and the under in the game. And again, that just didn’t get there. I That always worries me whenever I see shark
betterers on the same side. that’s truly one-sided. It worries me a little bit.
Um especially when it’s an under. Like when it’s an over and you got the the the the recreational betterers on the
over and the sharps on the over, that makes sense. But when you get the under steamed and the public’s heavy on the
under as well, those always worry me. Kind of like when I see the dog money, when when the public’s betting the dog
and they’re taking them on the money line thinking they don’t even need points and then the sharps are also on that dog, those dogs tend to worry me
most. um yesterday. I mean, you can’t really draw too many conclusions. Again, it was just one week. The lines were up
for a long time. These teams had plenty of time to prepare for that one single opponent. Um again, I think this is week
two is when you, you know, start uh not being able to draw conclusions, but I
think we’re going to see some teams like how they bounce back off a loss or off a win. Um and again, you got to take your
time. Unfortunately for NFL, it’s a short season, so you never really are able to get to that long term, meaning
there there’s not enough time for teams to regress and progress to the means at times. So there’s a lot of outliers, unlike in baseball, like we talked about
long enough season, nobody’s winning 62 65% of their games. You’re regressing, you’re progressing. That’s the bottom
line. There’s 162 games played. That will happen, but not so likely in the NFL or college football. Um, what stuck
out to me yesterday was the the the the public money was betting those favorites
like they usually do. And, you know, nothing’s really changed. Even though, you know, with more and more information
and knowledge and more sports betterers entering the party every day, but that the the biases are still the same, man.
They’re towards the favorites, they’re towards the over, and uh, books take advantage of that every single day.
Isn’t it amazing, Giani? Like we we do this every year and then it’s like we all know the public’s be playing money
like favorites and teasers. We know the Browns are going to screw up a game somehow. We know this team’s going to have a bad defense. We know this team’s
offensive line is going to be bad. Just like it’s like may maybe this is a little bit predictable uh from time to
time. So time uh let’s take a look at baseball. We don’t want to forget about baseball. There’s uh tons of uh tons of profits to
be made in there. We’re going to bring on Steve M to talk about one game in particular. Uh what are you seeing here? got a lot of games to to pretty decent
slate here. Yeah, it’s a good good good good card today. Uh just three sides, one total. And also WNBA under Connecticut Atlanta
under Connecticut. The reason I bring that up is that’s one of those where it’s opposite what the recreational bers are betting. We don’t get heavy WNBA
action. But the couple bets that I have seen come in from the um recreational accounts. They’ve been on the over, but
that you have the the sharp money coming in on the under. Pay attention there. Now, Major League Baseball 953 New York
Mets even money 956 Atlanta plus 115 958 San Diego minus 130 and then 970
Milwaukee Texas over 8 and a half. That’s another one. The reason it hasn’t gone up to nine yet is you’re getting
some public money under there. So, that’s helped offset a lot of that risk. So, if you agree with that eight and a
half, jump on that before it gets to nine and loses its value. So, little slow in baseball, but again, it’s only
9:00 a.m. here on uh the West Coast, so we got plenty of time to uh see some
more action hit the window. Uh before we let you go, any takeaways from college football over the weekend
or any opening lines for college football that uh that jumped off the page that people are jumping on?
No, no, no. I mean, again, nothing really jumped out. We’re we’re officially now they call it week two’s over, but it was more like week three.
Uh so, we got it more data under our belts. That’s what I’m looking forward to digging into this week’s games that
we actually have something behind it, not just like projecting like we have some data to go by. Uh but nothing
really stuck out. We don’t have like no no huge huge um uh losses by any any big
favorites or anything like that. Nothing really out of the ordinary happened on Saturday. Uh but it’s interesting seeing
like some of those higher profile games get that though big teams have that loss already. You know what I like a team
like Texas, what do they do now that have a loss like that? Those things kind of interest me as we’re going forward
and how the sports books are going to handle that because you know those teams got to win and they got to win with margin now. You know what I mean? You
got a loss under your belt. You’re not just showing up even against a weak team that you’re a 40-point favorite. You’re
going to go in there looking to blow them out by 70, I think. Um so look for style points on some of those one loss
teams that still had playoff aspirations coming into the season. I think he could uh get some value there.
Uh it’s Monday Night Football. Got loaded baseball slate. What do you have up for clients over at Wager? Oh yeah, I got a two pack in the NFL.
We’re coming off a Sunday Night Football 4% best bet winner and we’re rolling over on Monday Night Football. Confirmed
side and confirmed total. So they’re both in the same package. 4% side, 4%
total. Currently number one NFL college football combined. You’re gonna want to see what the college football and NFL
action is the rest of this season. I’m getting some really good stuff as subscribers will tell you. And uh hopefully we just keep cashing tickets,
man. When all the dust settles, as long as we pick up a couple units, things are good. So, it’s been a great couple
weeks. But today, we start off 0 and0. But there is some soccer. So, go to the wager talk. There’s the free picks page.
I put up some premium soccer for you as well. There’s some World Cup friendlies out there. And Madagascar was big today.
They laid the the points with Madagascar. They laid 350 with Madagascar, 400 with Madagascar. So, I
don’t know. I don’t like eating that kind of chalk, but when I see that kind of they’re betting it every kind of way,
first half team total, when you’re seeing them try to just get down as many different ways on a side, I pay
attention. So, best of luck. Whether you follow or fade, hope you have a winning week ahead. Yeah. If you see that kind of movement
on soccer, Exactly. Somebody might Somebody might know something. Know something. It’s like when there’s a
random Yeah, it’s like when there’s a random tennis tournament. It’s like, why is everyone betting on this random
tennis? Oh, the other guys have got a pulled hamstring. That’s why. So, uh, Giani the Greek, everyone, thank you
so much. Uh, have fun at Contender Series tomorrow. We’ll be cheering you on. Uh, let’s do uh, let’s take a look at
recap here. We’re going to um, we’re going to look at some overreactions. We’re going to look at where the books won, where the betters won. We’re take a
look at some props and fantasy football winners. Let’s start with overreactions.
Uh, let me know in the chat which one do you think is the most accurate or which one is the most ridiculous? Uh, Dolphins
are the worst team in football. I saw that one a lot. Colts are a legit threat in the AFC South. Overreaction. Uh,
Steelers and Jets, two of the best offenses in the league. Uh, the Lions are now wrecked with losing the
coordinators and assistant coaches. The Cowboys are good. The Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs. and everyone
wanting to cancel their Red Zone channel subscription because of the commercials. That one was that that that to me is the
the clear overreaction uh winner for for week one overreacting. So, let me know
what you guys think. So, Red Zone. Yep. Yep. Yep. Lot of lot of lot of dislike
for Red Zone and then all of a sudden it’s really nice to have in your life on Sundays. So, uh let’s take a look at
where the books won and where the betters won. uh block that’s not my that
I’m I’m I go to social media for those. I ask people that’s that’s not my opinion. I just go to Twitter and look
and see what’s hot and what’s not. And that’s that’s where I uh that’s where I get those. So that wasn’t that wasn’t me. Pretty clear-cut where the books
won. The under in the Steelers and Jets game was uh it was it was over very very
early. Literally over. And then the Giants plus the points big line movement on the Giants. And the Giants they were
who they thought we were. Uh we’re the public one. Listen, the moneyline parlays and teasers with the Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals, and Commanders. And
I got to believe everyone did very, very well in their Survivor picks. Let’s take a look at some of the prop winners. Uh,
hope everyone did good in fantasy football. Justin Fields had to be a big winner for his props. Baker Mayfield to
throw two touchdowns or more. Just keeps cashing. Uh, Ricky Pierol, uh, we’re not going to get that receiving line
anymore. He looked fantastic. Anytime touchdowns for James Connor and Derrick Henry and Jaylen Herz Herbert continues
to not throw interceptions and Amaika Puka Woo Tampa Tampa Bay look great with
him there. Uh fantasy and props losers Lions I’m not panicking on the Lions
just yet but St. Brown Gibbs and Montgomery were horrible. The Bengals were terrible. Chad already pointed that out. Burrow Chase Higgins were bad. Nico
Collins was bad and that Texans offensive line looks as bad as it was last year. AJ Brown was a bummer.
Pacheco, who knows what is going on in the Chiefs backfield and Bucky Irving was quite
disappointing as well. So, those are your props in fantasy football winners and losers. Let’s bring on Bill
Crackman. I’m interested in your take. Uh, NFL week one overreactions, big
winners, big losers. What’ you take away? Hey, Andy. Uh, you know, I actually liked your list wherever you just got
that from. It’s fantastic. But I’m going to agree with the public too. The commercials on red zone is stupid. That
the idea is to get red zones to get all your plays in, have your things. I mean, you know, to watch everything as it’s
happening. I don’t want to have a commercial when when someone’s, you know, in in the red zone,
hence to say the red zone. But yeah, so that kind of pisses me off, but nothing would surprise me with ESPN. Um, but
yeah, and some of those things, of course, they’re overreactions. And what people don’t fail to realize is
whatever the public is thinking, trust me, that is already in the next week’s
forecasted numbers when they when they the bookmaker that puts them out, they put them out knowing that that’s what
the public’s going to think. They’re going to think teams like, “Oh, maybe uh, you know, the Pittsburgh’s better
than we thought with Rogers.” And, you know, there’s some clear-cut ones there, too, though. Um, especially like like
Kansas City maybe, or even, you know, even Buffalo. Even Buffalo’s defense was very suspect. So, of course, the next
week’s going to add an extra half a point or a point on the total thinking that Buffalo’s going to score a lot of points and their defense sucks. So, you
know what I’m trying to say is don’t think you can outsmart the bookmakers.
You know, uh, God blesses the bookmakers. Look what happened. That’s my old saying. Look what happened on in
the show I do on Fox Sports Radio Nationwide. We talked about we talked to their head of trading. So, and I tease
him all the time and say, “Listen, God blesses the bookmakers.” I mean, one of their biggest bets was on the they
needed the under on the Dallas game. Just think about that. They were like heavy heavy six figures under. How do
they win that? All over money came in. It was one of their biggest risk for the week. And by the way, the Eagles the
Eagles was giant for them. People laid seven, late seven and a half, even late eight on the Eagles. So that was one of
their biggest wins for the week was was was that game. All the bookmakers though that that’s just a representation of the
bookmakers in general, how they did for the weekend. They did very well again. So, um, don’t let anyone kid you and
say, “Oh, I think a couple favorites win. People tease them down. They throw them in the money line.” And, you know,
it doesn’t matter. The bookmakers absolutely kill it because of the teaser juice, the parlays, everyone’s up. You
know, I call them chowmaners. Like when you when you when you go to to a Chinese restaurant and the waiter comes to you
and you don’t know what you want and you’ve been waiting there 30 minutes and you don’t know what you want, you know, you say, “Give me the chowine.” You
know, like because you’re a chowainer. That’s what they do with these child maners. They go to the line last minute.
They’re online and every sports book in America has people that get shut out. Why? They can’t make their decision up.
It’s just like the ch the guy ordering the Chinese food. He can’t make his decision up. He goes to the window and
just says, “Oh, give me give me.” And then they get shut out. I mean, it’s amazing. Uh we have a we have a
challenge on one of my shows and it’s a it’s called the crack challenge. five games against the spread every week at
five minutes before post. So, it’s just that hard to beat. And I’ve had some
professionals go 40% 35%. That’s how hard it is to beat an efficient line.
That’s why week one was so tough, Andy, too. These lines have been out for months. So, um you know, like like when
I’m getting to a Colts game back in June, uh plus one and a half and now they’re minus one and a half. You can’t
give that to out to the public. You know, that’s another thing too, Andy. I hate I hate and some of them I know
they’re actually some friends of mine. I can’t stand when people send out games. Oh, um, bet games 359
Arizona over at Hard Rock. That’s going to be your official play. one one effing
sports book has it and you want to tell people that’s and now you want to grade your over 39 when it’s 40 everywhere and
the game lands on 40 and now you’re going to grade it a winner because Hard Rock and Florida had it or ESPN bet
where no one that has a pulse can bet and they get thrown out or DraftKings that throws out anyone that wins over
$100 on a bet. You know, I’m going after some sports books today. Um I hate to usually mention them by name. Um, but
yeah, the the this is this is what I get. So, I’m I’m kind of pissed off about a a couple things. And you know,
the this weekend was a weekend where I had great closing line value. And I’m not making excuses, but hey, I actually
lost on Sunday. Most of the pros did. I I didn’t get to hear what Giani said, but I’m guaranteeing you he said lots of
the pros did. I mean, for me to get out get to get to um Atlanta early afford a
line move. I mean, that that actually and and Seattle, I actually seen these games at post time minus one. I took two
and a half. I gave them out two and a half. Um these games, too. But at the end, like just to see those two teams
choke. Seattle was dominating the whole game. Atlanta missed a chippy field goal at the end. I mean, uh some of these
guys are amazing. They can kick 60s some yarders, but yet when the pressure is on, they can’t kick 35. They can’t kick
an extra point. So, um, which is unbelievable, but yeah. No, it was a it was a it was a a weekend uh that was uh
a little choppy on Saturday, but a small win actually uh for for like I had
Dallas. I hate giving all these sides out, but people want sides. So, Dallas, I thought it was going to be a great NFL
week. I had Dallas plus the points and um and and then, you know, you come right into getting a closing line value.
months ago I sent out Kansas City pickum minus like 30 and uh boy now here’s an
overreaction. Do you really think the Chiefs are that bad? You think they’re not going to learn off of a week uh you know o overseas and come back here and
and just not be the team they used to be? Maybe not. Maybe not. But they’re not going to miss the playoffs or I mean
I don’t think so. Um but yeah, so it’s uh you know it’s first week. I’m really
happy to get over that and get some unique lines in here. Um, we got Monday Night Football tonight. That’s the old
uh black and blue game there. And and you know that that this game is a great division uh rival game tonight. Uh the
Sharps are back and forth on this. I know I bet it when it was plus one and a half. Uh when the line came out, I bet
Minnesota. Now they’re minus one and a half. And see, perfect example. I can’t give that out to people and told people
to tell people to Yeah. to buy that. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. Now granted, I think Minnesota’s going to be
a better team this year. I think they’re going to be a better team than people think. I like McCarthy. I I I like just
the organization. I actually made some future bets on them. But I thought
Chicago I like the under on things on Chicago season wins, not to make the playoffs. Well, one of my one of my guys
that I really respect, he actually likes Chicago to make the playoffs. So, um,
you know, you get back and forth, but I got to stick with I got to stick with what I got to stick with, though. I I I
got to go with M with Minnesota. And, uh, if if you have to make a bet on something, my god, I would I would
suggest a money line on Minnesota. I like Minnesota tonight. Old division game. Love that. But, you know, I know
it’s hard for people to stay off the games, Andy. Monday Night Football games on TV. You got to have action.
It shouldn’t be. It shouldn’t be hard. I’m not playing anything on it. I had a six and four day yesterday.
I know. I know. I It’s our It’s our public service announcement. You don’t have to bet Monday Night Football.
Um You like any props in this game? I was has I’m on the fence. I kind of like DeAndre
Swift over his rushing and receiving. Couldn’t get there. Um a sneaky one is Caleb Williams not to throw an
interception. I think he only had four games with an interception last year, but nothing I actually got to the window
with my own money on, you know. Um Andy, it’s funny. I used to be like 75 78% all unders on my props.
Um it’s closing it’s getting closer to 50/50 now. So I’m going to give you an over that I bet. Uh I like Lovelin over
receiving yards. Uh 27 and a half minus 15. I’m looking at the bet MGM line. Um
you know you know new coach Ben Johnson there. He should have a he he really uh
should have a ton of two tight end sets. So, uh, I I like him over. Um, Caleb
Williams likes those little short routes. So, uh, I like his over on his yards tonight. So, there’s a there’s a
there’s a prop that I put my money where my mouth is tonight. There we go. Um, yeah, they got some uh Titans says he
likes running back Mason. I was I this is the books are lining this backfield
like it’s a true split. I don’t know if you saw the numbers. They got Aaron Jones at like 53 and a half and Jordan
Mason’s at 39 and a half. So, it’s like books are telling us both both guys are going to get it. I I like that Loveland
uh prop a lot. You could tell the books struggle with some of these props because they’re just vanilla numbers.
So, if you have a strong opinion one way or the other, you can really uh you could really get after them. So, um
let’s see. Anything else, Bill? Anything you like in MLB or you know you know I kind of set back now
when uh from you from Major League Baseball a little bit. a little bit. But as far as going back to the football,
you know, on a prop, I have no problem with you going over a yard or two different compared to a side on a or a
total on a football game. If I tell you to go over 43 and it’s 45, I’m not going to tell you to go over 45. But sure
enough, uh like like Lovelin was over 27 and a half minus 15. Then I seen over 29
and a half minus 110. I have no problem uh doing that and and suggesting that in case uh people want to know about that.
Um, granted, you should have more outs. If you have more outs, you’re going to find I’m always going to release things
that are available at many places. So, I look at the DraftKings line, look at the FanDuel line, which many people have. A
big part of the public’s repertoire there is to bet those places. I sure wish I can bet in there. Um, a and uh,
so I try to give out an available line. Of course, I’m not going to give out something. Like I said before, I went off on that rant. Um, how about these
unders week one too? That’s another thing. So, if you look yesterday, the the first set of games, it looked like
they were all going to fly over. All the first halfs were going over and then 11 and two, I think. Um, even with this new
kickoff rule, which is totally totally insane. Um, you know, they 35. Well, I’m just
saying you only have to get you only have to get 20 yards and these guys are going for 60 63 yard field goals.
They’re trying to kick them 60 yards. So, you you didn’t like it. You you didn’t No, I’m just saying no, it’s okay. I’m
all I’m doing is stating fact that I thought these were going to I thought the NFL was going to take a while to
adjust and there was going to be a lot more points scored um in in in these games and and to not see it actually
surprised me. Um but you know I think I think people will get used to it and it’s fun. Listen, it’s conducive to more
scoring. They want more scoring. They want fans to have that retention. So uh but I was surprised of all the unders
that came in yesterday. Um, Bills Ravens the fourth quarter was just crazy too last night. That was just football, man.
Look look at how it you just toss a coin there. If you were to bet that game literally uh you know you could you
could have won either sides if you have all different outs and you’ve been paying attention for months. You could have got to the lines either side you
could have had plus one and a half on that game. So, uh interesting games, a lot of fun and um yeah, no we got some
new stuff up there for wager talk. 200 bucks again. 199 for the month. I I don’t know. I I could have swore I
talked to the guys and they were discontinuing that Tuesday of last week. I don’t know. But I see it up there now.
So there you go. It’s I mean I’ve never had I’ve never charged less than $500 for a month. So uh there’s something to
get on. Jump on it right now. We’re going to have a lot of props. Week two, three, four, you’re going to get week five in there. And uh yeah, I’m sure
you’ll come back. So there it is. We got a we got a new one for you. We we got a new code for you. Uh crack wins
69. and it gets a week of your place for just $69. So, uh, we we we got it down to $10 a day. So, you want Bill’s Plays,
use the code crack wins 69. Just $69 for all of Bill’s plays, props, anything.
Usually, I wouldn’t show that money like that. That was a photo when I was going up to the window the other day to sign
up for the $100,000 grandimo. They wag your talk said, “Can we film?” I said, “Go ahead. I’m I’m bringing up 100,000
to.” And we had Denver in that grandimo. And boy, I’ll tell you what, that was a sweat. That was a sweat. Even though
they won by eight, let me tell you. Yes. Uh Tennessee was driving there at one time going to go ahead. That was a sweat
even. So, I don’t know. Now, that doesn’t mean Tennessee is better than people thought and it doesn’t mean
Denver is worse than people thought. Just any given Sunday, anything can happen. Absolutely. Bill Crackman, use that
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10 bucks a day. Bill, thank you so much. Can’t wait to do it again next Monday. Bill Crackman, everyone, uh, we got another special. If
you’re interested in just football, we’ve got a football special coming up for this weekend. All football plays for
your handicapper of choice. It’s just $49 bucks. Just flat rate. $49 gets you the whole weekend for Saturday and
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Steve Merrill. And this is weird, Steve. Normally we do this on Tuesday and you
got a $5 bill coming across, but we’re going to talk. We could have we could
Yeah, we we got $5 Monday. Sure, why not? This is called foreshadowing. This is called I predict
I predict tomorrow on Tuesday, September 9th, will be a fantastic special offer at wager talk.com called $5 Tuesday. We
are less than We’re actually less than eight hours away. People don’t know this, Andy. A little insider information here. Monday
night, 8 o’clock Eastern is officially when $5 Tuesday begins. So tonight on Monday after 8:00 Eastern, right after
Monday Night Football kicks off, when you’re jonesing for more action, there will be some advanced $5 best bets
starting to trickle. A blank starts to trickle trickle onto the site at 8:00
Eastern Monday. $5 Tuesday sounds a lot better than $5 8:00.
$5 Monday night after Monday Night Football kicks off. Be there. Yes, absolutely. Market shut that one down.
Uh speaking of Monday Night Football, let’s talk it. Let’s get your breakdown for the Vikings and the Bears, of
course. Uh I mean, lots of stories here. JJ McCarthy making a start. We got new coaching in in Chicago. This is an
interesting game here. It’s right around even. I mean, you can tell the books aren’t don’t have a strong opinion one
way or the other. Even that 43 and a half seems like a pretty pretty vague line. So, they’re leaving some
opportunities here if you got a strong opinion. What’s your breakdown on this game? Yeah, the only thing better than
$5 Tuesday is free Monday Night Football. And I did a video for this game a couple days ago. It’s online
right now. Uh deep dive breakdown for Vikings Bears. I’m going to give you the free play right here on Wager Talk today
as well. I like the Chicago Bears in this game as a live home dog. Uh Ralph Michaels was on last Tuesday right
before me here with you Andy on Wager Talk Today. And Ralph had that chart of NFL divisional teams doing very well in
week one. Uh 65% over the past decade. divisional dogs that is doing well in
week one. And it makes a lot of sense. Teams know each other well. They have the whole summer to prepare. And the team that’s often the weaker team makes
adjustments where the better team doesn’t have to. And I think that’ll definitely be the case in this game. Bears last year struggled. They only
outgainained four of their 17 opponents in total yards. Uh there was nothing misleading about that five and 12 losing
record, but they do have a new coach, Ben Johnson, and they’ve got the more experienced quarterback here. here. And one thing Ralph pointed out in that
chart last week was how good divisional home dogs have been. The real sweet spot. In fact, over the past decade and
a half, they were 18-4 against the spread. We missed out with the Atlanta Falcons in that role. Although that game
went off in a pick them yesterday, and we all know that could have gone either way. Atlanta probably should have won that game in my opinion. We did see both
the Cowboys and Chargers cover on Thursday and Friday night as divisional dogs. Uh Giants missed out yesterday.
The Lions missed out, but I had a best bet on the Packers. The Lions were the most public underdog on the board for Sunday. Uh so definitely did not like
that one. But this is a public uh a divisional dog rather, which I think is live tonight. And I’m going to go back
to something you said is about JJ McCarthy not only making his first start, he’s like throwing his first NFL
regular season pass ever. He only played limited preseason last year. He got hurt in the first game against the Raiders.
Missed the entire season his rookie year. And I believe he only played in one preseason game this year. Uh, so you
talk about Green Monday Night Football, hostile environment on the road against what I think is an improved Bears squad
with a new scheme, new coach, new motion, and then Caleb Williams. We’re getting the better quarterback, the more
experienced quarterback as a home underdog in a divisional game, which is a strong angle to start with. Uh, so I
like the Bears in this one. If you want a little added protection, um, they do probably make a pretty good teaser play
now that it’s sitting at plus one and a half. Uh, you can get them up to seven and a half or more. We’ve talked about
how week one is not ideal for teasers because the lines are a little softer. But if you look back yesterday and this
week in general, teasers have done pretty well. Philadelphia Eagles covered the teaser, didn’t cover the line. Uh
you look yesterday, Seattle one and a half two-point home divisional dog also covered the teaser, but did not cover
the two-point line. Lost by four. Uh the Broncos 8 to9 point favorite. They win by exactly eight. The most public play
of the week would have covered the teaser. Um, so you of course have to tie that up with some advanced games for next weekend in the NFL, but I like the
Bears. I think they’re a live dog, plus one and a half money line, and they make a pretty solid six-point teaser at seven and a half or more as well.
Let’s move to MLB real quick. Can’t forget about Major League Baseball. Let’s talk this Mets and Phillies. And I
was looking at the pitching matchups for today and tomorrow. And it’s amazing that two of the same teams can have such
vastly different pitching uh situations uh compared to uh just just like
literally 24 hours apart. So looks like we got Mlan for the Mets. He’s been sharp. Only four earned runs uh 26
innings pitch. We got What’s your take on this Mets Phillies? Yeah, it’s an interesting matchup
because they just played at the end of August about just over a week ago and Nolan Mlan made his first start against the Phillies in that game. In fact, um
he’s had very limited action this season. Overall, he has only four starts, but as you said, he’s been an excellent 1.37 RA and part of that was
an 8 ining shutout uh just two weeks ago on August 27th against the Phillies and
he gave up just four hits. So, he had their number. I do think they’ll have a little bit more of an edge this time after just seeing him. They’ll make some
adjustments. Uh but he has been fantastic. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has not been for the Phillies this season. Um
limited due to injury. He missed uh three months, was out in midMay, did not come back until mid August, and he was
awful in the debut against not my Washington Nationals on the road in mid August. He gave up six runs in just two
innings, and he hasn’t been much better since. Uh gave up seven runs over 12 innings his next two starts, and they
got lit up against the Brewers, maybe the best team in baseball last week, giving up six runs in just five innings.
Uh, so I need to see something from Nola. You know, a lot of times these guys struggle in their first couple outings and then they turn things on,
but he’s had four subpar outings now since coming back from injury. Overall this year, an awful 6.8 RA in 69 innings
of work, dude. And this is a guy that’s a pure fade for me. And by the way, the Mets current lineup tonight, uh, 285
career batting average, and that’s over 280 at bats, 80 for 281, uh, 285 career
average. So the Mets hit him well. Nola’s in bad current form. You know, the game total at eight and a half I
think has value with Nola himself giving up six and a half runs per nine innings and nine is a very key number. But if you want to take, you know, Mlan out of
the situation since he did shut down the Phillies, we can always look at a team total and get the Mets over four and a
half at almost even money. Um, I do think the Phillies over three and a half could be worth a look as well as I do
think they’ll hit MLAN better here this second time around. Uh, but once again, Mets over four and a half runs against
Aaron Nola has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. I think has some value tonight on Monday. And by the way, this is the MLB Network
National TV game at 6:45 Eastern. There are 11 baseball games on the board tonight and I’ve got nearly half of them
analyzed for my clients and for free. I’ve got three strong best bets tonight and I made a three for one triple play.
Don’t sleep on baseball in September. Last year I finished on an incredible 57 and 28 best bet winning run over the
final few months of the baseball season. I’ve also got a bonus play for one of your late games tonight um in the
American League and also a free play video on the other late game in the National League between the Diamondbacks and Giants right here free on Wager Talk
TV. So, lots of baseball still to be played the next couple months. Cash in big and this is your last chance to get
seven days all sports football and baseball for just $77. Steve Merrill wageralk.com and get there quicker.
wt.buzzm. What a nightmare year for Nola. Like
this poor guy, man. He should have stayed injured. Every time he steps on the mound, it’s
just like just balls flying out out of the stadium. So, uh, great work there, Steve. Uh, takeaways from week one on
your team. We’re So, Andrew’s team won, my team won, Dan’s team won, your team
won. Uh, how are you feeling? Not my Washington Commanders, which would mean if they win, I lose. Not
until they’re the Redskins again. But um you know there’s a lot of excitement obviously with them making the NFC Championship game last year. I’ve said
several times I thought the best play of the season was the Philadelphia Eagles last year in that game uh fading the
Commanders. I just couldn’t see them in the Super Bowl. I still think they regress this season and let’s be honest,
the Giants are expected to be one of the worst teams in football. Uh, we’ll see. A stiffer test this week for not my
Washington Commanders as they believe they play Thursday Night Football against a feisty little team called the Green Bay Packers. And um I will have a
free play video up. I might actually record it today, Andy, and it’ll be up nice and early probably tomorrow and Tuesday for that Thursday night game.
Um, but yeah, their defense looked okay. That was impressive. I thought the Giants would get a little more. The Giants had a chance to score late. They
were driving. Uh, one thing I will point out though, as we’ve talked about, is that week one is kind of week 4A of the
preseason still, and we will often see results in week one that do not correlate to the rest of the season. I
heard you talking about the Colts and Dolphins earlier. Obviously, that was just a blowout offensive game for the
Colts. We’ll see if that translates to the rest of the season. Um, but for the most part, I think things kind of went
as they should. Tough loss to end the weekend. We had the Baltimore Ravens last night. I also did a free play video
for everybody with the Ravens this week. you know, 16 points in the final four minutes they allow after a fumble from
one of the best running backs in history. By the way, the Ravens ingame had a 99% chance of winning straight up
with four minutes to go. So, if you had Buffalo, you had a 1% chance and you got it done. You know, we’ll see if that
Bills defense gets any better, if the Ravens offense is really that good, minus the fumble. Yeah, Derrick Henry, they had a live
line on his rushing. It was like 176 and a half and he was over it. Then on that fumble, they took away nine yards. And
so did they really? You had a you Yes. You had a winner and then all of a sudden you had a loser. Like wow. That might be the worst bad beat
from one of the worst bad beats in the history of Sunday Night Football. That’s a bad beat. Yeah. When you have the over on Derrick Henry, he gets over
and then they take away nine yards because of the once again one of the best running backs in history. He passed Jim Brown for
career touchdowns last night. That’s how good that And I consider, you know, comment in the chat. I consider Jim
Brown the greatest football player ever just because he dominated more at his time than anybody’s ever dominated. I
think that’s how you have to look at it. Um, so yeah, that’s just insane. But that’s the NFL for you. NFL is back.
Brutal. Brutal. Anytime the books need to win, it’s like they just do. Don’t go there. Don’t be getting
conspiracy on me now. Come on. Thursday Night Football. Just saying. Exactly. That was 172-1 to the
over. When the team had a 41 points in the half and the total was 50 or less, it was 172 to1 to the over. It’s now 172
to2. I think there’s a chance I had that other one cuz I know I had a game a couple years ago. It was like a Colts
game, I think, or a Lions game. We had like 40ome points at the half and it stayed under, but I think the total was like 52, so it might not have
technically qualified. Um, yeah. But by the way, Andy, real quick for the viewers out there, if we ever
get a situation like that again, that was one of the best in-game live betting opportunities ever. In hindsight, nine
touchdowns and field goals and a fumble before the delay and then five straight punts end of game afterwards. There is
no question that nearly 1-hour delay allowed the defensive coordinators to make the adjustments, the zigzag like we
see in the NBA playoffs. Now, it might not work in all games, but if we get a back and forth shootout like that that gets a weather delay here in the next
couple weeks, I think that in-game under is probably worth a wager. Yeah. Yeah. Bummer. Bummer, man. I lost
a 5% on under one and a half rain delays this week at minus7,000. My wife and Mary
did win. By the way, my team did make it right on Saturday. It’s actually almost Sunday. They won at 11:45 Eastern
because they had two 1-hour lightning delays. I hadn’t even gone to the stadium yet for either one because they kept kicking fans out
and that game went took there like 10 people in the arena. So, weather was wreaking havoc on the East Coast this
weekend and we might get some more of that. We got a couple more months of a couple more weeks of September. I I do
think that is a good betting strategy to look for the contrarian call. You know, however the game is going, look for the opposite after the long delay.
All right, Steve Merrill. Uh have a great Monday. He’s in uh in play in baseball tonight, so take advantage of
Steve Merrill over at wager talk.com. Dan, what what is this? Shots fired. If
you’re live, if you’re betting a live rushing total, it it won.
Dave Dave Mason hacked in and wrote that comment. That was Dave Mason. That wasn’t me. He was the one
actually won. It It did win until it didn’t. You never won and lost the same bet.
Yeah. Yeah. No, that’s that’s pretty brutal. That’s That’s pretty brutal. I just had I had to see if you were paying
attention to the chat, Andy. I was just a little warning shot across the there for you. All right. Well, while I got you on
here, we’re going to get I I want Dan’s I want I want Dan’s opinion on something
and then we’ll do all around the world. Uh give you guys some free. All right. So, Dan,
you’re you’re the representation of everybody that had Denver in their Survivor.
So, so lordy, the game starts and you’re like, “Oh no,
Bo Knicks is going to play awful today.” And then uh what was your thoughts when it’s fourth down? They’re like, “Well,
we could ice it with a field goal. We could punt it.” No, we’re gonna go for it and we’re gonna throw a Hail Mary
bomb to nobody. So, walk us through uh
what what was it like having Denver in the Survivor Bowl? All I know is it was our esteemed leader
who is it was a a Denver fan in Kelly Vegas. Kelly in Vegas who said if Bo
Nicks throws two interceptions, we’re all going to lose our Survivor play or at least or at least lose the the cover
if people were looking at at Denver Broncos. And that was just ringing in my head when I saw the first turnover from
Bonex. I was like, “Oh god, the the Denver hype that we were sold heading
into the season is biting them so hard in the ass right now because they’re
just playing down to competition.” And really, if you think of uh you know what what you’ve got with Shawn Peyton over
his entire career, World Beaters who they will play down to their competition. So, like why I expected
anything different was crazy, but all I had was visions dancing in my head, Andy, of what happened last year with
the Bengals when they were the team. And I said it with you on Friday when I said they could be this year’s Bengals,
right? Because it’s it’s that much of a slam spot. It’s a slam dunk. And whenever that happens, it makes me
nervous. But, uh, it wasn’t there wasn’t a there were several moments, Andy,
where I was like, “Holy [ __ ] I’m screwed.” But then I was like, “But the team they’re playing is so
bad.” Like they were doing nothing to make me nervous. It was only the Broncos that were making me nervous. So we got
it home, Andy. I was even towards the end of that Cardinals game for you. I was starting to sweat a little bit. I
was like, “Is Rattler really about to tie this game?” Like very Cardinal.
Yeah. Very Cardinalsy of them. Oh, we’re killing this team. Let’s let them back in it. Uh, lucky for me, I I don’t know
if you saw the last play. It’s like, okay, it’s fourth down. It’s the last play of the game. Maybe you should keep the ball in bounds, Spencer. You just
throws it out of bounds, out of the side of the end zone. But, but we had a great weekend.
We survived, Andy. We moved. We survived. We survived. Uh, I did. We We had um I put the Jags in several of
our of our picks on bet online. We used We used the Jags. Picking myself. So, the circa entry, we
end up going two and three because Falcons end up screwing us, Seahawks end
up screwing us, and we had the Dolphins. That was just a wrong side. But the one that I wanted to trade out for the Dolphins was Jags, and I really wanted
the Raiders in our entry. Uh, unfortunately, my cohort, uh, Adam, uh, you know, he gets the final say. He’s
the guy who actually went and got the proxy sign up, so he gets the final stamp on it. So, hey, what are you going
to do? Two and three. At least it wasn’t an 0 and5 week. doesn’t take us out of contention. Exactly. And there will be a five and0
week incoming and I will be insufferable when that happens. But guys, you can watch that every week. Every Thursday
we’re doing Let’s Make Millions, me and Adam Rosenberg sharing our circa millions entry card. So,
but Andy, we did survive. We survived. So, the I will survive story. We get the
graphic lives another week. The graphic lives another week. Uh I got that I got that 49ers team
circled against the Saints. Yeah. I don’t I don’t care that they got close to Arizona. They were
non-competitive in that game. It was terrible. Early early look for me too, Andy. I think I’m a satist for punishment. I
think I’m going to go back to the well on the Dolphins because nobody wants to bet the Dolphins this week. And and and here’s one thing
that went under the radar. You’re not taking them to win outright, are you? I think I’m They’re one and a half point
favorites. So if it’s if the contest line comes around to pick them comes around to one, here’s the thing for me.
Is the Patriots looked awful, too. But because of all the other crazy stuff that happened, that’s going under the
radar. And this is the come to Jesus moment. This is one of those plays where everybody thinks one way. I want to be
on the other side of the bar with myself, just sitting there dancing with myself. So, uh, so maybe that’s what
we’ll be doing. I haven’t put it in yet, but yeah, it might be a little dancing with myself special. And the Dolphins
may be a bet for me. All right. Well, let’s close out with All Around the World. Let’s do some free plays for
today. A couple of these come off of the uh wager talk free picks page. Uh we got a prop here for Monday Night Football. I
would look at Caleb Williams over 20 and a half pass uh completions the last seven games of 2024 with Ben Johnson was
with the Lions. Uh golf easily flew over this number. Now Ben Ben Johnson’s head
coach the Bears running game for the Bears not as good as the Lions. So, I I think they’re going to get Caleb comfortable with a lot of quick passes.
He had 18 and 32 completions in two games against Minnesota last year. I think they’ve upgraded everything there.
So, uh Brewers at the Rangers. Uh I that graphic is wrong. It’s supposed to say
Brewers money line. Sorry. Supposed to say Brewers. I have no idea why I typed Rangers on that one. That’s my bad. Uh
Quintana for the Brewers. He’s won four out of last five. Brewers are just crushing and uh they they uh they swept
their last series and they scored 10 runs yesterday. My apologies from the from the graphics department. Cubs Braves. Look at Elder over 17 and a half
outs. He’s gone over in six out of the last seven games. Last two games he’s went 21 outs. In the last game against
the Cubs, he went 21 outs as well. So, uh, take a look at Elder to go deep into that game. All right. Thanks very much.
Appreciate you guys. Uh, it’s been a great Monday. My $5 Tuesday play will be up at 8:00 tonight. Uh, it’s for
tomorrow, but I already know what it’s going to be. It’s the only play that I’m going to have up today for clients. We’re sitting out Monday Night Football
because we had a really good day in NFL yesterday going six and four on our prop. So, anytime you can walk out of
week one was six and four Sunday, you’re going to be really happy. So, we’re going to uh sit out Monday Night Football, but at 8:00, get ready. We got
a 4% uh play that’s going up for $5 Tuesday. Big discount on that one. Don’t forget to hit the like button on the way
out. Leave a comment in the comment section and subscribe to the channel if you haven’t. We have so many breakdown
videos of individual games for MLB, for NFL, for college football. It’s the the
place to be to get all the best information for your bets. Thanks very much. Good luck on Monday Night Football. We’ll see you again tomorrow.
Take care.
Urban City Podcast Group
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