College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

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Major Takeaways:

Significant line movement in the Georgia-Tennessee game suggests sharp money may be coming in on Georgia, despite strong trends favoring the Volunteers as home underdogs.
Notre Dame is a strong play at home against Texas A&M, fueled by urgency after a season-opening loss and a profitable trend under coach Marcus Freeman following a bye week.
Vanderbilt is a live underdog with a strong chance to upset South Carolina outright, citing the Gamecocks’ deceptive 2-0 record and poor offensive performance against weak opponents

College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

Welcome to the Blitz. Free plays for week three of college football coming right up. If you’re watching us live

here on the Wage Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now. Any game you want to talk about, we

will be happy to oblige. Of course, we’re talking all the big games for sure. That means Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, USF, Miami, Florida, LSU,

Arkansas, Old Miss, and Vanderbilt, South Carolina. Here to help me break things down, Ralph Michaels and Ross

Benjamin. And great news for all of you. The three of us have decided we like each other so much that we are now the

permanent team here on the Blitz each and every week. So, it’s me, Ralph, and Ross every Thursday live here at 1 p.m.

on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Ross, I’m going to go to you first here for Georgia and Tennessee. This is a

situation where we have seen significant line movement. We did see significant line movement early in the week. Number

dropped from Georgia 6 down to Georgia 3 and a half. I will tell everyone whether

this is true or not remains to be seen. However, a little birdie has indicated to me that we are going to see some

sharp money come in on Georgia in the next 24 hours or so. Ross, how are you

looking at this allimportant SEC matchup? Well, I mean, look, whether the sharp

money comes in on Georgia or not, um the line moved from six to three and a half,

right? And um I would say that that’s not public money. So

might be split here and uh the little birdie in the room that you heard from, I respect your opinion on that. But

look, here’s the thing. Tennessee’s 24-1 in their last 25 in Knoxville. Uh and

that includes in in 20 games against FBS opponents going 19 and or 21 games

against FBS opponents going 20- one and 14-7 against the spread. Ironically

enough, their only loss in that sequence came to Georgia. I just think this is a Tennessee team uh that’s built uh to

make a national title run this year. I mean, they they can move the ball offensively. I like their transfer

quarterback. Uh their defense we know is experienced and very good. Georgia to

me, I mean, especially last week when I look at their game last week against Austin P, they win 28-6. I think they

could be had, especially early in the season. So, I’m gonna have a small lean toward Tennessee here. And uh if Brian’s

right, maybe you’re better off waiting near game time where you in or over the next 24 hours like he said and you’ll

get a better number. But even at three and a half, I like Tennessee in the spot. Okay. I was doing this, Ross, not

because of your anything with to do with your breakdown. It was because Georgia, I think, could be accused the last two

weeks of perhaps a little sleepwalking to their first two opponents. They knew they weren’t going to be tested by Marshall and Austin P. But Tennessee

certainly, Ralph, a different story uh in a big bad SEC opponent. Nobody

is more keenly aware of the trends than you. Uh Georgia, let’s talk about the rivalry here. Uh Ross mentioned a

previous Georgia victory here in Knoxville. Well, last eight meetings overall, Georgia 8-0 straight up.

They’ve won those eight games by an average of 25 points per game. Now, some of those were when the Tennessee program was down, but Georgia’s covered the

spread in seven of those eight wins as well. What do you think? Does that history play into your handicap here at

all for Saturday? Well, you know, Brian, let me go back to your little uh your little statement.

Not only is Georgia 0 and2 maybe sleepwalking this year, Georgia is 1 and

11 against the spread their last 12 games as a favorite. Period. It doesn’t matter who they play as a favorite.

They’re one and 11. You know what that is? That is 8%. Now, this was an interesting trend and I

said, “How much does this really apply?” Because we’re only two games into the new season, but I looked and early in

the season this has been successful. Home dogs that have won at least seven

straight home games, obviously you can carry over a season, are 66 and 41, 62%

against the spread. And conference home dogs in that role are 64%.

Georgia, by the way, as an away favorite only 3-8 ATS their last 11. When I

looked at top 20 home dogs, they’ve gone

23 and 18, 56% against the spread. If they’re in the first two months of the

season, they’ve gone 60% against the spread. And if they’re a conference home

dog, they are 73% against the spread. So that is two top 20 teams, a conference

home dog, 73% ATS. And if you are one that bets money on the bets the money

line and you like Tennessee, listen to this stat and think about it for a minute

conference away dog, excuse me. In those 11 in those 22 games,

the straight up the dog is 111 straight up with an average line of plus 5.8. So

that means if you bet those 22 games, if you’re plus 5.8, 8. That translates to a

what minus minus 250 money line. 11 of

those 22 teams have won outright. I lean Tennessee. I’m concerned Georgia’s

offense, even though they sleptwalked, you still should do better than averaging 5.1 yards per carry against

Marshall and against Austin Pay. Uh I’m going to side with Ross here and back

the Volunteers as well. Okay. I’m gonna say Brian, I’m seeing a four and a half at

FanDuel as well. So, it’s three and a half across the board and four and a half at uh FanDuel. So,

okay. If you like Tennessee, that’s the place to go. FanDuel, I think the line is um going to, like I said, if you like

Georgia right now, uh I I think that you should bet them now because I think that I think it’s going to go to four and a

half pretty much across the board soon. Something we need to point out, two the top two the starting quarterbacks for

Tennessee are out of this game. So that’s something to watch again. The Georgia offense, which Ralph mentioned, has struggled has kind of, you know,

whatever the first two weeks, then they wake up and they take advantage of that. All right, next game on the list should

be a good one. Saturday night, it is Texas&M and game. Open the season

against one another uh last year. I had the first half under in that game. That was a winner. Uh I kind of like the over

though this year. Ross, uh what do you think here before the season? I did a special edition of the power five. I

said gave out some win totals. I said bet&m over eight and a half at plus 150. If they win Saturday night, I’m d I

think I’m dancing in the streets with that win total. I think that’s going to be looking pretty good. Uh but here’s

the problem. They’re two and 13 against the number under Elco, including 0 and2 this season. And they’re an underdog in

South. Yeah. I mean, and you look at Texas A&M, they’ve had struggles on the road the

last few seasons. Uh Notre Dame coming off that heartbreaking loss against Miami of Florida. They did have a byee

last week. Texas A&M, although they’re two and 0. I I’m just I They haven’t wowed me when I watched them. They beat

UTSA. Um and they also beat uh help me out guys the other game.

Yeah. So, I mean, it’s not like they won by 22 or 21 points in each game. Uh but

it they didn’t come clo close to covering and the opposition moved the ball on him. And Notre Dame here, keep

this in mind. Um under Marcus Freeman, they’re five and0 five-0 straight up in

ATS coming off a buy during regular season action. Uh 6-0 straight up in ATS

coming off a loss in their last six under Marcus Freeman. So remember Marcus

Freeman got off to a terrible start at Notre Dame losing his first two games and I think he’s somewhere around 33

and8 since then. Um and the Irish coming off a loss playing in their home opener

and uh unlike Texas A&M who could really if they lose a game they’re still alive.

Uh you’d be hardressed to make a a case for Notre Dame if they start out 0 and2 here as having any kind of decent chance

to make the college football playoff. So, I think the urgency lies with Notre Dame here, and I’m willing to lay a six

and a half at home against the Aaggies. Oh, all right. Ralph, I mentioned Elco

struggles at the old pay window. Marcus Freeman, Ross referenced it. He’s been quite good. He’s been quite profitable

back, uh, even though Notre Dame did drop that season opener as a road favorite down in Coral Gables. How are

you looking at this game? So, has&m been tested? Obviously not. They haven’t played one of the worst

schedules in the country, but it’s been pretty bad. And I found this very interesting, guys. There’s times that

even when I run data that I’m completely shocked. I ran the query, guys, that

says, “What happens in game three if you were a home favorite of 21 points or

more and you won each of those games by at least double digits and now you’re an

away dog?” It hasn’t happened very much, but those away dogs since 2016 are

actually 62% against the spread. So, I was going to say this. I think&m is an overrated 2-0 team based on who they

played. You know, yes, they have a dynamic offense with a couple incredible wide receivers. You know, Carver has

been amazing. Conpsion has been great. It it really allows Marcel Reed to

stretch the field. I do like Notre Dame’s defense, though. Yes, they

allowed 324 yards, but remember this is 324 yards to a Miami team that was one

of the top offensive teams that had a quarterback that was a transfer from Georgia. They were on the road in that

situation. So, I don’t think at the end of the year, I think that 324 yards that Notre Dame allowed is going to be an

actual positive number versus right now into the break it looks like a negative.

Uh, I did look up two other things that I wanted to share with you. Teams

off a ranked loss. So you were ranked opponent and you lost and now you have a

buy on de and you are off a buy. Those teams are only 49% at home. So it

doesn’t it doesn’t it doesn’t not a positive, not a negative, but I still want to share that data with you. So if

you have those type of thoughts, you know what the results are. But when that team is off a ranked loss game and they

had a buy, they are 70% to the under the last 36 games, 11 overs and 25 unders.

And that’s where I’m going to go here. Big game, national TV. I like these

teams having to feel each other out. I’m gonna go under first half in this. And

it’s actually one of my top three plays from the games we’re going to talk about. under first half, Notre Dame,

Texas A&M. Okay, there you go. Of course, guys, here each and every week of the Blitz, we’ve got you covered with the biggest

games on Saturday, but we also will leave no stone unturned. If you’re watching live, you can ask us about any

game you want to hear about, and many are doing that right now in the chat. I’m going to go to uh a question from

Adam because he wants to know about Georgia Tech and Clemson. I’m going to this game right now, Ross, because the

line movement, it’s a very similar story to what we talked about earlier just a few moments ago in the Georgia Tennessee

game. The market decided this number was too high at the open and money came in on the dog. We know Brent P at Georgia

Tech has been fantastic as an underdog. I believe they’ve covered six straight

at home against ranked opponents. I’m going to look that up in a minute after you’re done breaking this down. Maybe Ralph also has that one handy. But

Georgia Tech’s been very live in the home underdog role against top teams under key. What do you think? Clemson’s

not looked good at all the first two need to me. Yeah, they had to come back from a 16-

nothing deficit against Troy last week to win 2716.

They did have a strong second half. Maybe they can carry that momentum over. But, you know, I was high on Georgia

Tech to start the season. Although they just went seven and six a year ago, they were my pick to win the ACC at plus 700.

And this certainly, if I’m thinking Georgia Tech‘s going to win the ACC, they’re real live for me right here. Um,

and you’re looking at a Georgia Tech team, uh, that, you know, look, they didn’t even play with Hannes Hannes

King, their quarterback, who I think’s the best quarterback in the ACC when healthy. Um, and I know I’m going to get

a lot of argument there. Uh but having said that, he didn’t even play last week and they put up monster offensive

numbers. They were very good in their season opening win against Colorado 27

to 20. They were pretty much in control of that game from start to finish. Although it was just a sevenpoint

difference. Um and uh Hannes King uh again if he’s healthy this week uh I

like Georgia Tech even more. If he’s not, I still like Georgia Tech. I think Georgia Tech wins this game outright. Uh

Clemson again uh losing to LSU at home 17-10 and listless last week and now

they go on the road for the first time. Uh this is a huge game for Georgia Tech and I think they’ll be prepared and

ready uh to get the cover here at home. Yeah. And Ross, something else that the folks need to remember in case they

didn’t watch that game or had forgotten about at the Georgia Tech season opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech should have won that game by more because they

turned the ball over on their first three possessions. If they don’t to to turn the ball over three times and still

win, that says something. If you could because usually if if you if you turn the ball over three times, you’re not winning a football game. Georgia Tech

did against coach Prime and Colorado there in the opener. Ralph, I have do

have the trends right now in front of me. Under key Georgia Tech 9 and5 ATS against ranked opponents. They are a

perfect 646 as a conference dog of single digits.

in Miami last year. So, uh, will Mr. Key and those trends continue here, uh, on

Saturday? It’s a noon kickoff against Clemson. If Haynes King was 100% healthy and he practiced this entire week, I would have

been on Georgia Tech. Uh, he’s been limited in practice. They do expect him to play, but to me, I’m going to lay off

this. I do probably have some uh some fire starter in a uh Clemson National

Championship ticket that I bet. So, yeah. No, no team has been uh uh again,

losing to LSU is not a bad loss, but again, just just the vibes you get from this team after the Troy game. You know,

Troy may be better than we expect, and I like the way Troy’s played, but when you rush for 3.9 yards against Troy at home,

running the ball 31 times, only gaining 121 yards, that’s a concern for me. Can

the Georgia Tech defense stop them? Well, you know, they held Colorado to 305, but we know Colorado has their

struggles, and what do they say? Uh, if you have two quarterbacks playing, you don’t have a legitimate starter. Well,

how about if you have three, you know? So, you know, Colorado has their issues. The Gardener web game, obviously, Ross

had mentioned. To me, it’s Georgia Tech and the under. Not going to make my card with not being 100% positive on King.

Okay. Uh, we’ve got a lot of questions coming in on this Arkansas Miss game.

That game was in our rundown anyway. So, let’s go to it here. I see uh the main man Jay Buff. Thank you for the shout

out on my hair. I appreciate that. I, you know, always try to look my best here on the You sure? You sure it wasn’t me he was

talking about? Oh, I’m sorry. I apologize there. Okay. But, all right. So, Jaybuff, he really

likes uh these are actually two games that are on our rundown, guys. So, let’s uh we can hit them both. Arkansas, Old

Miss, Vandy, South Carolina. Couple games in the SEC. Yes, that SEC slate uh

getting underway. LSU Florida, too, by the way. We’ll be talking about that game. If you have a question, hit us up. But uh Ross, let’s go to Vandy, South

Carolina. I know you had a lot to say about this game elsewhere here uh this week on the Wager Talk YouTube channel.

Yeah, I mean, this game looks like a trap to me. You know, you’re looking at a number 11 ranked team in South

Carolina. And they’re just what, a three and a half point home favorite here or

four and a half, whatever they are, against an unranked Vanderbilt team who only got one vote, one vote in the AP

poll this week, you know, and that I got to scratch my head because right now to me when I look at these two teams and I

look at film on both of them, Vandy to me is the better team. I mean, South

Carolina 2 and 0. Deceiving. Why do I say that? They won 38-10 last week,

Ralph, over South Carolina State. But guess what? They scored three touchdowns by way of a punt return, a block punt,

and a fumble return. They only compiled 253 yards of total offense against an

FCS opponent. And and their week before they won against Virginia Tech 24 to11.

We now know that Virginia Tech is not a very good team and they benefited from a

punt return touchdown in that game as well and still uh did very little offensively. I mean they had all this

hype with uh Sellers at quarterback and they haven’t shown me squat offensively

in the first two games. Uh you look at Vanderbilt uh won last week 4420.

Uh they had a huge total yards advantage of 490 to 248. Um in against Virginia

Tech, a common opponent, same play team that South Carolina faced on a neutral

field. Vanderbilt went to Virginia Tech on the road and that game wasn’t even as

close as the final score may indicate. Uh that that’s how much Vanderbilt dominated that game. And uh look, here’s

the thing. They’ve lost 16 straight versus South Carolina over the last 16

meetings. You think that’s not big- time revenge? Because this is to me a much

improved program. Uh I like Diego Pavia at quarterback. Is he an NFL ready

quarterback? Not even close. He may make it in this uh Canadian Football League, but he’s not an NFL type of talent.

However, he’s a winner. Okay, he’s a winner. He knows how to get things done

at the proper time. And uh college football away underdogs of four and a half or less like Vanderbilt that are

coming off an away underdog upset win in which they scored 41 points or more. And

they’re facing a team like South Carolina who’s coming off a win resulted in those away underdogs going 9 and0

against the spread since 2003. Not only that, Ralph, those underdogs not only

covered all nine, they won eight of those nine games straight up. Give me the Vanderbilt Commodores, guys.

Oh, wow. Ross, he’s got a lot to say. I agree with you, Ross. I don’t know if Diego Pavia is a future Winnipeg blue

bomber or not, but I will take it a step further what you had to say about South Carolina. Right now, guys, there are

three teams. the AP top 25 poll. And I know there was a lot of controversy about that AP top 25 poll during the

week on social media. There are three teams that I think are wildly overrated. We can all write this down right now and

you can come back. If I’m wrong, you can make fun of me in the comments section or if you’re I’m right, then you can all tell me how great I am. South Carolina,

Iowa State, Illinois, all overrated in my opinion. I don’t think any of those

three teams end up to uh in the top 25 when the regular season is over. So, I

am with you, Ross. I think Vandy is live to go to Columbia here and pull the

outright upset. Ralph, do we make it three for three? Beating Kansas State and beating beating

Iowa is enough for me to get him in there. So, yes, uh, in that case, I totally agree with the other two. And,

you know, it’s not just the AP that’s a joke. And that’s why you can never look at ranked teams early in the season

because all they’re doing is basing on what happened last year. And if they win, they move up. they lose, they move

down. You know, I remember the, you know, when the UPI used to be big, that was the coaches poll. I remember

listening to Urban Meyer talk all the time and said, “I don’t even fill out my ballot. I don’t even see my ballot. I

give it to an assistant. He fills it in. He sends it in for me.” So, do not put stock in those. They are a joke. Um, you

know, there’s not there’s no reason for me to say anything, guys. I agree with Vanderbilt. The way they’ve played, they

should be there. I see South Carolina not being there. I think Vanderbilt is

the play, but I do like this, especially in the SEC. We see a team like

Vanderbilt who scored 45 against S Charleston Southern and uh and 42 against VTEC. When you’re scoring a lot

of points against weak non-conference foes and then you play your first conference opponent, your game plan

changes a ton. And even with that, Vanderbilt ran the ball 68 times in two

games, only passed the ball 48. They’re going to run the ball. South Carolina’s going to run the ball. They’ve ran for

73 times and only passed for 39 their first two games. I’m going to go first half under here again, guys. I know it

sounds like a broken record, but agree with the Vanderbilt side. First half under as well. Okay, there we go. Uh,

let’s stick in the SEC because, guys, the questions are rolling in in the chat. Jacob Hefner would like to know

what’s up with the line movement in Miss Arkansas. I was bummed to get the worst

of the number laying it with Miss. Ross, your thoughts on this one? My initial

thought was maybe to look at an over Arkansas. Uh they’ve put up some big numbers in the first two games. I

believe they’re top five in yards per play, points per game, yards per game, but look at who they played. It’s not exactly a uh a murders a rogue a murders

row of two first two opponents and then miss has a potential injury issue at quarterback. So interesting game here in

the SEC. Another one. Yeah, it it’s a game that I looked at up and down and uh couldn’t come up with a

decisive decision either way. U as far as that move goes on the line move. I I

think that Old Miss and I I’d be interested in hearing what you guys have to say. I think they’re a tad bit

overrated. I really do. Um they barely got by Kentucky last week on the road and Kucky’s not a very good team. I know

Kentucky beat them last year, but again they struggled to win that game and uh I

I I just don’t have a strong opinion here to offer uh the viewer uh in his

question. Maybe Ralph or Brian does. Ralph lines down to seven. Commenter

asked about the question there or about the asked about the line movement. Uh

any angle for you here on this one? It is I I would concur that miss a little overrated. Lane Keifin had to apologize

to the betters last week after the game uh when he gave up that late field goal not to cover the spread. And again, they only rush for 4.6 yards

per carry. That’s not a Lane Keifin team. They usually press that pace early in the season and do that. I do want to

comment, Brian. I I didn’t hear the the name of the person who left the note,

but my advice to you is this. If you like a game and a game has moved

two or three points, just don’t bet it. It’s okay. Don’t The worst thing to say is, “Oh my god, I took the worst of this

line.” There’s reasons you don’t bet games. And that’s one of them is because of a line move. So don’t fall in the

trap that you have to bet that game. If you got the worst of it, if it doesn’t come back, let it go and look how much

you save at the end of the year. Write down every win, write down every loss, and remember, for every dollar you save,

you’re saving an extra 10% juice. Um, I’m going to say that I actually think

Arkansas’s offense can move the ball here. I think they will be able to run against an Old Miss defense. So, if I

again, no real lean on the game here. I like Arkansas team total. So, if

anything, it’s a very light lean for me, but obviously if I like the Arkansas team total, that means I think they’re

going to get 30 points. So, that means they’re likely going to cover this game. So, by default, it puts me on the

Arkansas lean side. Ralph, with some very sage advice there, guys, about uh when you miss the best of

a number. Speaking of sage advice, the place to go, of course, is wageralk.com. And boy, do we have a special promotion

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Michaels to talk about what he’s got going on this weekend before we get some more of your questions. I see the one

about Troy in Memphis. That’ll be up next. Uh, Brian, I am with you with an NFL 5%

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That is, as Ross mentioned earlier, a real value, a steal, dare I say. All right, let’s talk about this game here.

Adam wants to know about Memphis and Troy. You mentioned Clemson earlier.

Clemson played Troy last week. Troy was beating Clemson 16 to nothing. And Ross, they were probably feeling pretty good

about themselves, weren’t they, down in Troy, but they of course lost 27 to 16. So Adam’s question is, uh, do we like

Memphis to dominate Troy after that emotional roller coaster last week, or is Troy just getting going?

You know, Troy might be just that good. uh for a a Sunb Belt team and Memphis uh

was a favorite trendy pick I should say for a lot of people to come out of the group of five and they still may. Uh but

this looks like a tricky one to me guys. You know, I think Troy, if you look at how they played defensively against

Clemson last week, they just wore down because Clemson had more uh quality

depth uh in that game. And uh I think a lot of people are jumping aboard the

Troy bandwagon this week and that line moved from six to three and a half. Uh

again, that might be some sharp money because it came in early or might be an overreaction to what we saw in week one,

but this game is not going to get any of my money, Brian. And uh I I’d like to give uh Adam a definitive answer, but uh

I just think there’s more value to be found on the College Football on Saturday. Yeah, if you like Troy,

unfortunately you did miss the best of the number there. U Memphis Ralph, very interesting. They the final score says

they dominated their FCS opponent Chattanooga last week 45 to have a pick six though in that game. I always think

that’s important to note. Uh Ross earlier in talking about that South Carolina the first week talked about all

their non-offensive scores. So uh what do we think is Troy for real or is this a tough spot? You know, you’re up on a

team like Clemson 16 nothing. You think it’s going to be one of the big defining wins in program history and then you get kind of boat raised in the second half.

What do you have left emotionally in the tank because Memphis uh as Ross mentioned is one of the legit contenders

to nab that G5 playoff spot? Mentioned Brian, you mentioned the pick six. More importantly, they went to

Georgia State as that solid favorite. They only had a 401 to 389 yard edge. They were only a plus 12 yards overall.

So, I mean, that’s a very misleading final. They allowed 340 yards passing. Troy is a team that I really like this

year. Why? Because we have secondyear head coach Gerard Parker. Think about

Troy last year. They started the season 1 and eight. What do they do? They beat Coastal Carolina. They go to Georgia

Southern. They win. They lose that UL. Not a bad loss. Then they beat Southern Miss. Now you have a team in their

second year as a head coach. I think it’s easy to rally in your second year.

a coach that won four of the last five four three of the last four games after starting one and eight coming off and

winning uh the opener and then playing that well against Clemson. To me, I am sold on Troy at least for the next

couple weeks. We’ll see what happens. All right, there you go. Memphis and Troy. Hopefully that helped you there a

little bit. Uh we’re going to now go back to our rundown. We’re going to leave the chat for a little bit. Keep those questions coming, guys. Uh we are

going to be hitting LSU and Florida. Very big weekend in the SEC. Uh, but what other games do you want to know

about? There’s a just a random game you have a question about. You’re watching us right now live. Drop that question in

the chat. We will get to it. But I want to get to a very You talk about G5 contenders for that playoff spot. Ross,

I think you have to be talking about the USF Bulls right now who have beaten Boise State and they have beaten

Florida. Now they face Miami of Florida. Needless to say, now

as impressive as the non-con has been here so far for the Bulls that to get that playoff spot, they need to win the

American and that’s, you know, several months down the line. But, uh, I’ve got a a question for you here.

True or false? Does USF care more about winning this game or just keeping it

close? Because here’s the thing. If they can in fact win their conference down

the line and they just simply keep this game close against Miami, then yeah,

it’s going to be impossible to keep them out of the college football playoff uh come December. So, I asked that to you

because they’re getting a big number here. And if they’re down 20 late, I think they really care about

punching it in a touchdown and which would obviously get them under the number here because I think they want

the committee at the end of the season to look back and say, “Hey, USF only lost by such and such to Miami, or am I

crazy or am I overthinking things?” Yeah. No. Uh, you make good points. Uh,

but I do think that a team that knocks off a nationally ranked team at the time, Boise State, and then another

nationally ranked team at Florida, uh, is not going to just hope they’re keeping it close. You know, they they

really I I truly believe they believe they could win this game. And, um, talk

about a group of five contender right now, uh, to get to the playoffs. Whoever wins that American to me is going to be

the group of five contender. I mean, that’s a better conference than people realize right now. Navyy’s also pretty

good, although they lack the uh overall depth and quality depth and defense as

uh some of the top contenders in that conference do. Uh but, um here’s what

scares me, Brian. Miami of Florida, they’re not going to catch them by surprise. Okay? Uh they’re not going to

be Miami of Florida is not going to take this game lightly. Miami of Florida is not going to waste a win over Notre Dame

in their season opener. They’re a very talented team. And it also strikes me

that this game opened at 15 and a half and very quickly, very quickly, right

after it opened, shot up to 17. Sharp money to me. Um, if I I’m not going to

use this game. Um, I do like the points you make, Brian, but I I I truly believe

that South Florida wants to win this game and believes they could. Now, wanting to do so, uh, and doing it are

two different things. I have a slight slight lean, Ralph, toward Miami here,

uh, because of that early line move. just, you know, you would think that a double-digit underdog that just pulled

off two upsets in a row against quality competition and people would jump all

over that, but that wasn’t the case. And to me, that move is sharp money. That’s

not public money. So, I think Miami, there’s no way that Miami wants to uh

contend for a national championship and lose to their little brother in South

Florida. And that’s basically how they look at things. So, uh, it’s it’s a tough call, but if I you put the

proverbial gun to my head, I would lay the points with Miami. Okay. What do you say, Ralph? It’s the third straight week facing a ranked

opponent for USF. Well, you know, Brian, I was on USF against Boise. We talked about Byron

Brown, how good he was before he got injured and he came back and he looks to be the same player. But um when you

asked your question about do they want to keep it close, there’s no other game on the board more

than this one that sets it up for a back door cover. USF has South Carolina State

at home on deck, followed by Charlotte at deck. Miami has big brother Florida at home

and then they go to Florida State, the other instate rival. So you’re talking about them. They How many times do you

play four instate teams in a row? Bthoon, Cookman, USF, Florida, and Florida State. So to me, the situation

clearly screams USF with no one on deck. I could see Florida resting some starters before they host Florida next

week if they’re up by that formentioned, you said three or four touchdowns into the fourth quarter. I actually was close

to using USF, but again, trends are either to help you make a bet or to keep

you off a bet. And these trends are keeping me off USF. So guys, I’m gonna

put you on the spot real quick. I need a real quick answer from you. How many times since 2008, so we’re talking what,

16 years, has a college football team won back-to-back games as a dog? It sounds

easy, the first two games of the season as a dog. I was shocked how low this number was.

Yeah. Um, I would have thought that it would be not real though, but um, now

that you mentioned that, Ralph engage, I’d love to play poker with you because you just showed your hand for crying out

loud. I’ve seen 14 14 teams 14 teams

since 2008 have went back-to-back games as a dog. Next week, they’ve gone six and seven. But then I went and did this.

How many teams were an away dog and one as a dog of

three or more? and then one as a dog of 14 or more like USF did. So, back-to-back wins any time in the

season, not through the first weeks of the season. The next game, it’s only happened uh 30 times since 2018. The

next week, they are 9 and 21 against the spread, that is 30%. And if they’re a double- digit dog, they are 2 and4

against the spread. So, some serious numbers for teams playing that third straight underdog role. And

while I like USF and I would still give out USF as an opinion, this is a

situation where those trends to me that make total sense are keeping me off this game.

Okay, so there you go. Battle of Florida there uh a little bit uh for both sides. And remember Ross, I think we mentioned

this Ralph, too. The first time we talked about Miami, I believe is when we were breaking on that Miami Northern

name game. there three of us gets late and the game is close, Mario Crystal

Ball will often do the wrong thing. So, we also have to college that certainly. All right. Uh guys, we uh there there’s

some weekday college football action of course this week. We’ve got a question from Colin Gregory on a f little Friday

night lights here. Coach Prime in Colorado. They’re going uh looks like they’ve made a quarterback decision

there. They’re going with the guy who was the original third stringer against a Houston team that I bet over six and a half wins uh to go uh before the start

of the season. I thought this Houston team was going to be improved in a wideopen Big 12. I expect Houston to win

this game at home Friday night. Ross, am I crazy?

No, you’re not crazy. Uh and again, this is a tough call for me. I mean, this game opened with Houston minus four,

quickly moved to six, and now there’s been a lot of buyback, Brian. I mean, down to four and a half pretty much

across the board uh in this game. and and yeah, I mean, I looked at this line

and it jumped right out at me and I it also jumped right out at me was the early move because initially my my

initial thought was Colorado might be a nice dog in this spot, but with the quarterback change and uh it’s not like

Colorado has looked very impressive to start the season. This isn’t the Colorado team from a season ago. Um

they’re talented, but not quite as talented as that team. And uh yeah, I would have a lean toward Houston in this

spot and agree with you, Brian. Yeah, it’s Ryan Stal getting the start for Colorado. We mentioned earlier when

we were talking about the Colorado Georgia Tech game uh that opened the season, uh Ross, Colorado could not beat

Georgia Tech despite that lopsided turnover margin. That doesn’t speak well of them. Now it’s a different quarterback getting the uh start here.

But Houston, Ralph H quite even last year when this team struggled, Houston

has a very solid defense and I like the coaching staff. I don’t know. I think this is a team on the ascent uh in the

Big 12. Have a secondear head coach in Willie

Fritz, you know, coming back and we’ve seen the Houston improvement and I’m a big fan of that. You know, second and

third year head coaches that continue to show the improvement with their squads. Um, I’m going to make it simple. You

know, this Colorado team doesn’t rely on the pass because they don’t have a quarterback like Shadore. But let me let

me The last two road games, the first two road games of last year with Shadore. At Nebraska, they threw for 40

times, ran 16. Against Colorado State, they threw the ball 49 times and ran 19.

Now, when you look against Georgia Tech, they ran the ball more than they passed. So, this is a Colorado team whose

offense is going to be completely different this year, is not going to be as dynamic, is going to run fewer plays,

is going to have a massive runto pass ratio, or at least a runheavy pass ratio

completely compared to last year, and I do like the Houston defense as well. Houston and the under for me.

Okay. Uh, looking at the chat here, Lucky Larry asked about the Notre Dame Texas. Yes, we did talk about this one

uh earlier, Larry. Uh maybe if we’ve got some time at the end, we’ll come back to it. Some quick thoughts. Nice time for me to remind you guys, click that

subscribe button down below. That way you’ll be instantly notified when the show goes live each and every Thursday

at 1 p.m. Eastern. But if we do have some time, Larry, we can just kind of do a a cliffnotes version of our thoughts on Notre Dame and Texas A&M. But I want

to get to another game here that Godfather J6 asked about. This is uh Bama and

Wisconsin. Alabama. I’ll tell you what, Ross. Uh Luke Fickle

uh he needs to get uh in gear otherwise it uh he may be uh selling his home in

Madison because this Wisconsin offense looks absolutely atrocious. Now Kayn

Dbor, everyone was ready to ride this guy out of town in Tuscaloosa, including that woman who uh I don’t know if you

guys saw this clip on social media. She said if she won the Alabama state lottery, the first thing she would do with her money was pay the buyout for

Kayn Dbor and run him out of town. I think that is an interesting use of winning the lottery. But I digress. Uh

Alabama killed LA Monroe last week. What do we think Alabama does here against

Wisconsin? They killed him last year. I remember watching that game. Uh maybe I don’t know. We liked Alabama Ross at the

start of the season. Then they go out and they lose to Florida State who might actually be a very very good team. So uh

kind of an interesting evaluation of the Crimson Tide right now where they’re at. this guy’s got to be related to me with

a a you know a handle named Godfather. You know it’s again I thought that Alabama woman’s going to take all the

money if she won the lottery and hire Ralph Michaels as a head coach at Alabama because uh anyway uh on a

serious note I think Wisconsin’s a very deceiving 2 and 0. They don’t don’t have

a lot coming back from a season ago. Uh Luke Fickle to me has not been getting

the job done at Wisconsin. It’s tough to get the NIL money there. And I think

Alabama, everybody threw them under the bus after that season opening loss uh to

Florida State. But maybe Florida State is just that damn good, Ralph. You know,

uh I my lean here is definitely the way the Crimson tied. I think they’re they

cover the spread by the half and then win going away. Um, I just don’t think Wisconsin has that type of offense. They

never had under Luke Fickle, uh, where they’re built to come from behind. So, I

think it could snowball on them very easily if they fall behind, uh, quickly

and I think that’s what will occur and I like Alabama to win big here. Yeah, the Wisconsin defense, is that

okay, Ralph? Obviously, they’ve played some some weak teams. Miami of Ohio. My god, they’re turn turn your eyes away

when they’re on offense, everybody. But uh the offense again for Wisconsin has

not been up to snuff and I concur with Ross the boss there that if Wisconsin falls behind I I don’t know

how they come from behind. So you’ve been giving out a few first half thoughts so far on the program. Ralph,

is this a situation where you would lay it with Alabama in the first half or how would you approach this game?

We remember they were the run of the century. I mean couple years ago, what did they go 14-1 on first halves again?

new head new head coach Kaylin Dbor and you know you might think well Bama has

George on deck but again there’s a by-week on deck so it’s not quite the same situation I think Bama uses this as

a as a prep game to show Georgia I think they’re going to try running the ball um

I am not impressed again I agree with what Ross said and what you said Brian that the Florida State loss may be a

fine loss in a couple more weeks I mean they were only outgainained 382 to 341 yes they lost lost by 14 the way the

game played out. But you can’t overreact to those week one games. Um I think I I

think Alabama is going to try to run the ball. I don’t think they need to pass it much. I think they need to work on that.

I think that Wisconsin’s rush D has always been decent. I don’t know how they’re going to fare here. Again,

holding Miami to 1.5 and Middle Tennessee to 1.2 2 doesn’t show you anything, but I actually like uh if I

had to play here, I would play this actually full game total because if they have some trick plays, Wisconsin might

try to use them early. You know, Fickle came out and said, um,

we have this Alabama game circled all summer long. Who the heck circles a road

game against a non-conference foe? I’ve never heard that of a Big 10 coach to even waste his time saying that. So

maybe he does have some sort of scheme that he’s going to try some fluke things early and they didn’t shoot. Maybe and

again maybe since they won 17 nothing and 42 to 10. Maybe we just think

Wisconsin’s offense is bad because he’s hitting the playbook until he starts to play Alabama. That’s a possibility.

That’s something we don’t know. I think the points are too high for Alabama on the road in this situation. But again, I

don’t want to be on Wisconsin either. But call me a pass on this one.

Okay. Uh something else we need to note here. You know, we talk about the Wisconsin offensive from Billy Edwards Jr. uh doesn’t sound like he’s going to

play in this game. So the task got a little bit tougher for Luke Fickle and

the team. Hey Brian, just to corre I mean again was an oversight by Ralph, but Alabama’s

at home in this game, Ralph, not on the road. My apologies. Thank you. That’s called Ross was making fun of my age before the

show started, guys. the green. Yeah, I I thought you were going to tell me that you Monroe had their game schedu

or circled against Yeah, good. Good catch there, Ross. Um,

all right. There the the SEC seems to be the theme here. We’ve talked about Alabama, obviously, whether or not they

can still be a force in this conference. Remains to be seen, but we’re going to learn something here uh in the SEC

Saturday night when this is the final game on our scheduled rundown. Guys, of course, we always are going to talk about the big games each and every week

here on the Blitz. If there’s a game that we have not mentioned that you want our opinion on, you only have a few

minutes left to get those questions in, guys. So, do that right now if you’re watching live in the chat. But we’re going to go to LSU and Florida.

Ross, is there some It’s interesting. There’s ways to look at there’s different ways to look at this, right?

Florida bad loss to South Florida last week. Look, you should never spit on

opponent. Obviously, the fact that you would do it a couple days after it made national headlines in an NFL game was really stupid, I thought. Then it cost

your game boy. It cost you the game. Florida and Ross said, you know, I’m going to do it again here. The seat, it’s getting a little hot in Gainesville

for uh down there because if Florida loses here and then as Ralph mentions uh

mentioned earlier, they’ve got Miami, Florida, Billy Napier might have to get that indeed.com uh

resume open again. Okay. Is there any way Napier survives to October the 1st at LSU, at Miami of

Florida, home against Texas, at Texas A&M? No chance. That is not an easy schedule. No, no chance he is around after October

1st. Well, if he pulls an upset here, Ross, I guess, you know, he could have some job

security for the time being. What do you think? Because to me, when I look at a team like Florida, who no one was expecting to lose last week to us, they

were a double- digit favorite. Obviously, look, we we respect USF on the program. We talked about that earlier, but people thought Florida was

going to win that game. To me, my opinion is always there’s some value now on the underdog. That’s what the market

seems. The market thinks this number opened a little bit too high. And as impressive as LSU looked against Clemson

in the opener, boy, did they just sleepwalk their way to a win over Louisiana Tech last week. Hey, Ross, let me jump in here and I’m

going to give people an angle and then I’m going to have them think of the angle after you get done. I’ll share the angle with them. So, Brian, this is sort

of something without you telling me this. What’s the ATS record for teams

after they lost as a home favorite of 14 or more? I’ll get you those ATS numbers

after Ross finishes his breakdown. Okay. Yeah. And I can almost assure you that Ralph is going to come up with an angle

that supports the underdog because I do same type of technical handicapping. And

I don’t mean any disrespect by any means with Ralph uh because but uh we think alike in that regard. So, I think um I

think Ralph’s going to mention that uh there’s an angle that supports the uh underdog in this situation coming off a

uh favorite loss of minus4 and a half or greater. Um here’s the thing with me.

LSU was listless last week. Brian, you mentioned that. Um I I just think that I

got to give them a pass. They come off their big win against Clemson on the road. Uh, and you know, you you

got uh Louisiana Tech in between the game against Clemson and the showdown

with Florida, who at at the time was a nationally ranked team when they faced them when they played last week. Uh, so

I to me again, I’m going to stick with my guns here. I think that LSU is the

best team in the country. I said that before the season started. I gave him out on the college football betting

preview show with Teddy. I gave him out at plus400 to win the national title. Now they’re around plus 800 or so. Um is

a singledigit favorite. Now if they were in the double digits of a touchdown or more, that’s one thing, but as a

singledigit favorite in this situation and uh Billy Napier, he’s on the hot

seat. Uh, it doesn’t look like the players really have his back the way they played last week against South

Florida. Um, I’m going to lay the points here with LSU. I know the early money came in on Florida, but I just think LSU

is that much better, and I think the seat’s going to get scalding hot after this week, Ralph.

All right, Ralph. So, give us the trend here. I know you you teased the trend. You heard what Ross had to say. He’s

sticking with the Bayou Bengals, LSU, Ghost Gaming Sport. uh give us the try.

Well, Ross, this isn’t a wow number, but again, I want to share it just so people know. I had the exact same thought as

you, Ross. I was expecting it to be a a fairly at least a profitable number.

In the last 107 games where a team lost as a favorite of 14 or more, they are 51

and 56, 48% against the spread the next game. So again, it it’s to me it’s as

important to know a trend that you had a thought in your mind and you know now that thought is should be thrown out

because it’s not relative either way. Um you know with Lagway I don’t know if

there’s legitimate reports that he’s banged up or just the rumor mills but that’s an issue here. Um I this is

another game where I love playing these conference games weeks two or three like this when you’re matching up. Now, LSU

did play some competition and yes, they were on the road at Death Valley, but they only had a uh you know, they only

had a 3 they only had 354 yards and they only rushed for 3.5 yards per carry. The

Florida defense against USF, they did allow 391 391 yards and they have been

sacked against each of their first two opponents, which getting a sack against Long Island and only rushing for 5.3 is

pretty scary. So, it’s going to be under for me again in this one. And something I want to mention and I am remiss for

not having this data for you. Big ATS difference in LSU Death Valley playing a

night game and a day game with this being 7:30 p.m. So next time LSU has a

night game, I’ll make sure I have those numbers for you here on the Blitz. But again, it it’s um Death Valley at night

games and Penn State white outs are my two highest rated home home uh home

field edges in all of college football. Yeah, something tells me this will not be the last night game for LSU, LSU home

game this season. I’m with you. I think they’re a strong contender right now with the question marks we’re seeing at quarterback with Georgia and Texas and

Alabama. I think LSU is very live to win the SEC. Uh we have one question coming in on a

another Friday night game from Godfather J 6 has chimed in again. He wants our thoughts on Kansas State, Arizona. We’ll

get to that in just a moment. I’m gonna just take my opportunity since this is a Friday game to promote what I’ve got

going on. Again, one more time, wp.buzzbe. We’ve got that weekend warrior pass. So,

if you want to get down, you get Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And remember, we’re throwing in Monday. Ross mentioned it’s

a double header this week on Monday. Remember, you got Bucks, Texans, Raiders, and hosting the Chargers. I

will have a 5% NFL play on Sunday. We will have uh at least three college

plays on Saturday. I know we’re going to we’re locked and loaded with three NFL plays on Sunday. And I might be playing

both Monday Night Football games, guys, in the NFL. So, look, $49. You can’t beat that. The I’ll let these guys um

after they’re done giving their breakdowns on Kansas State, Arizona reminds you what they’ve got cooking this weekend as well. Ross, I I’ll give

you I’ll throw it to you now. The floor is yours. Kansas State Arizona. And remind the people what you have going on

this weekend at wageralk.com. Yeah, I mean I can’t pull the trigger on Kansas

State. I thought that they would wake up last week against Army at home. Um

nothing embarrassing about losing by three on the road against a nationally ranked opponent in Iowa State. But then

the following week you come back. Yes, you’re weary from travel, but you’re playing an FCS opponent in North Dakota

and you need a lastm minute touchdown to win at home 38-35. Then you play Army as a 17-point

favorite. An Army team that lost to Ralph’s alma mater, Tarlton State in

their season opener. Maybe it wasn’t Ralph Alma matter. He’ll let us know, I’m sure. But, you know, and they they

laid an egg and they lose the game outright. Not only not covered, but they lose the game outright. Arizona’s got a

little bit of momentum after um a terrible year last year. They win their

first two games. Yes. albeit against less than imposing opposition. But I

think that Arizona State with the momentum and playing at home against a Kansas State team that right now I’m not

sure what you’re going to get from. You know, I I I can’t pull the trigle on Kansas State. Probably a game I’m going

to pass on. Uh but uh if you again, the proverbial gun to my head pick would be

on Arizona in this one. Ralph, uh, those who have followed me and have been on

board with me, uh, for any length of time before know that I am the ultimate buy low guy. I love to buy low on teams,

and this would appear to be a buy low spot on Kansas State, but I’m with Ross. I don’t think I could trust this team.

My power ratings say, uh, no, I mean, they’re back up to a road favorite here. I I don’t want to play them. I I know

they hammered Arizona last year in Manhattan, the Little Apple, but this game is out in Tucson late Friday start.

your thoughts on this one? My biggest power rating difference

and that’s just because I haven’t lowered Kansas State enough. You know, I mean, Kansas State is by far my biggest dropper in the power ratings this year.

So, I cannot back him. I understand your buy, you know, buy high by low situations, but it’s one thing to buy

low because a team lost but played okay. It’s another to get outgainained by 86

yards against Army and only rush for 74 yards against an Army team that has a

very small Dline against an opponent. I just don’t like the Arizona State side either. So, no opinion for me. I can’t

get I can’t get to either side on this. And just a reminder again, weekend warrior 49 Bucks a 5% NFL play loaded

for Sunday now. All of Saturday, all of Sunday, and Monday football included. A great offer.

Yeah, Arizona’s two and0 against the number so far this year. Um, guys, here’s a stat. This, uh, you know, I I

like you guys, I always pour over these box scores each and every week. This was the most astounding stat from last week

in college football. Okay, Kansas State second half time of possession against Army.

Three minutes. They had the ball for three minutes and a half. Tough to win when you only have

the ball for three minutes. Ross, yeah, I just wonder if uh Avery Johnson’s father and his brother got in

a fight after that game, man. after playing that way. Holy cow. Especially when the brother didn’t get

on the field for only three month minutes. You know, nothing unusual, Brian. You know, when you play Army to

lose time possession, but you know, you look at Army and it’s not like they racked up a ton of offense. They were less than 300 yards

on the game themselves. So, yeah. I mean, what what’s going on, Ralph, with Kansas?

You know, it’s one thing to say Kansas had three minutes of possession. It’s another to be a Kansas State team and

allow Army to run 82 plays against you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Well, to to

Ross’ point, Army’s a team they’re going to run that play clocked down. I mean, they their goal is to eat that time, but

even by an Army opponent standardized three minutes of time of possession is quite ridiculous. Uh we’ve been talking

about this weekend warrior pass uh several times. I should have mentioned uh when I talked about the 5% play that I’ve got this weekend. Six and two last

week for me in football. Three in one college, three-1 NFL. We hit 66% last year in September, guys, uh, in NFL and

college combined. So, no surprise that I’m off to a 75% start this year. Uh, Mr. Benjamin, I believe you had

something to say. No, I was just giving you a thumbs up. Uh, again, yeah, I I didn’t mention

again to review uh, four picks in college football on Saturday, including the 5% uh, best bet. You know, tough

week for me in the NFL, folks. I’m going to bounce back. I mean, look, I had the over on the Thursday night game, the

Dallas and and Philadelphia game, you know, 41 at the half and ends up 44.

Um, I had uh Denver minus 8 and a half. They win by eight and they pass up a

field goal opportunity with less than a minute to go on fourth down. um you know field goal opportunity would

have been from 50 something yards Ralph but you know you’re in field goal range when you enter the stadium in Denver you

know so uh couple tough losses there and then the Monday night game I lost with Chicago so I tell it the way it is you

know I I brag about my college football record but you know the NFL didn’t go as well and uh we’re transparent here folks

um you know we’re not making up stories hey Ross if uh James Franklin was at

Denver coaching they would have tried tried that field goal. Oh, there’s no doubt. Would have tried a fake field goal.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Um, just real real quick here

if you guys did you guys want to reiterate your thoughts on Notre Dame Texas&M because we had a followup on that. Somebody tuned into the show. Did

we want to give under first half for me? But I think there was some good information. Just rewind back and go view it again. I

mean, it’s only a couple minutes. So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Notre Dame coming off a loss with Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame coming off a

by-week. Uh, you know, again, Notre Dame coming Notre Dame beating Texas A&M on

the road last year. I know there’s a revenge factor, but there’s something to be said about that Notre Dame defense,

which is very experienced and held Texas A&M in check last year. I don’t see why the same thing doesn’t occur here.

All right, Colin Gregory, thank you for your kind words. I concur. It was a great show indeed. And if you thought it

was a great show, you can be like Colin and just tell us it was a great show. or you can smash that like button there

right below. We always appreciate your support here on the Blitz. We are live,

of course, every Thursday, 1 p.m. Eastern on the Wager Talk YouTube channel immediately following Andy Lang

and Wager Talk Today, a show that I know we all appear on regularly as well. All

right, that is going to do it. Remember to get your weekend warrior pass.

We’re all locked and loaded for a big weekend of football. Ross, Ralph, and myself. Remember, it’s going to be the three of us each and every week here on

the Blitz. We like each other so much, we decided to be your permanent team. So, on that note, guys, till next time,

let’s cash some tickets.

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College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More