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NFL Week 2 Sharp Picks & Public Bets: Expert Betting Advice from Vegas Insiders

Urban City Podcast Group — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 19:05:11 +0000

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Major Takeaways:

Sharp vs. Public Disagreement: Experts identify the Broncos vs. Colts game as a major split, with the public heavily backing the Broncos while sharp money is coming in on the Colts.
Books’ Biggest Needs: According to SuperBook’s John Murray, the books need the Titans, Bears, Seahawks, and Panthers to cover their spreads to balance the heavy public money on their opponents.
Top Prop Bet: James Conner’s rushing yards over is a top sharp play, leveraging the Panthers’ historically poor run defense that was exploited in Week 1

What’s going on everyone? It’s Wager Talk last call. I am so excited that we’ve got week two underway and all the

numbers, everything you need to know. It’s all right here on Wager Talk stack show as always today as we’ve got Yanni

the Greek live from Las Vegas taking you behind the counter telling you everything his sharp groups are on.

Carmine also gonna break things down for us. John Murray, Superbook, you know him, you love him. He’s telling us the

needs on the book because if you want to be on the winning side, we always know the book tends to win more than we do.

And then Press, he’s got his show at 1:00 when you can watch Press go live and he could talk about all the

different games on this slate that he’s watching and you can watch him have a meltdown. He’ll talk about the show, he’ll tell you what action he’s on,

stacked and loaded, ready to go. I’ve got some prop edges as well. Let’s start though with the man, Yanni the Greek.

Yanni, happy week two. Good morning. Good morning. Busy morning. Busy morning as always. How was UFC last

night by the way? How’d you Good. I had a good I turned a profit in UFC. Lost in boxing with Canelo. I I hit

the undercard bet but lost my Canelo bet. And uh you know what’s crazy?

I It’s exactly how I expected it to go with the scorecards in his favor. If

only one more round was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw even though he really lost that fight.

Like it was that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo.

Like if he doesn’t get finished, I didn’t think they were going to give Crawford the decision. It came very close to that happening. So that was

wild. But uh overall good. It’s been a good month. Uh still number one in college football, number one college

football combined. So, let’s just keep doing damage. Not all that much coming in early. Usually, I have first quarter

bets by now, first half bets by now. Um, some team totals. I have player props.

Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. I don’t know. Week two. They’re there. It’s slow. It’s been sides and totals so far and a lot

of baseball this morning. So, I’m thinking it’s going to get busy over the last hour. Oh, okay. So, if we don’t have any of

these smaller markets like first quarter bets and whatnot, where have you seen the most action come in on for sides?

Oh, that that’s pretty easy. Um, here are the biggest sides right now. Uh, the

latest is the Cowboys. Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys. Nothing but Cowboy money. Jets,

believe it or not. Um, that’s why that line’s now through that touchdown. The Jets are one of those dogs that are

getting a lot of love early. And who else? Who else? Who? Oh, 49ers. Even

though um that line’s dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Um uh the

Saints, forgive me, getting all those points because of KD, because of Perie. Um the public doesn’t mind. They’re

still coming in with San Francisco today. And then um Arizona. Arizona is

going to be big risk for the books later because there’s going to be a ton of straight bets, a ton of moneyline

parlays, and a ton of teasers all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And

um yeah, that’s pretty much it. I mean, again, um good spread out action, but

those are the ones attracting the most money so far. Dallas, um

49ers, and I have to say the Arizona Cardinals. biggest risk for the book so

far. The big game of the day is the Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most

action come in on for that really short one and a half point spread? Exactly. And it’s kind of flipped back

and forth staying around that one. This is a great matchup to be a book maker in

because there’s really little risk. They’re booking good two-way action. Even like with parlays and teasers,

you’re getting good two-way action. So, not much risk at all for the books. Um,

I actually made the Eagles a favorite in the game. I made my total about 45, 45

and a half. Um, so I don’t think I’m going to be able to get down. It’s right around where that number is. I know all

the excitement again is on that Super Bowl rematch. U, but so far what I can tell you is good split two-way action

from the recreational bers and nothing from the Wise guys except they got out ahead on the over. They went over 46 and

a half when that total opened. But pay attention to the um lodge odds logic screen and see if there’s takeback on

that one because again that’s a high-profile standalone more or less late afternoon game that’s going to get

a lot of over money from the recreational bers. I actually just saw my Ravens line move

to 12 and a half spread on the board this week. Yeah. And and here’s the thing. We bet

the Browns earlier in the week at plus Don’t tell me that, Yanni. Yeah. Yeah. at plus 12 and and that line

dropped. Um earlier it was like at my sharper shops I’m even seeing 13 13 and

a half but it was down to like 11 and a half Ariel because we took the points with with um the Browns but since then

they came back with the Ravens and again a lot of that has to do with late injury information that you know the the the

official injury reports don’t come out till later in the week. So, a lot of times betting synders trying to get out

ahead of that information and as it changes, they’re not afraid to get offer on a game. Um, and it looks like that’s

what’s happening. Even though early Brown short money, you’re starting to see that Baltimore sharp money come in

because the public’s not really getting involved in that game. It’s mostly being teased. They’re teasing the Ravens down

um to where, you know, they’ve got to win by one score more or less to cover that teaser. That’s where I’m seeing most of the betting action from the

public um on that game. And they’re betting it over, blindly over. I’m talking eight, nine out of every 10 bets

has been on the over in the Ravens and Browns. Bill wants to know if you’ve got a

teaser for today. Teaser right now here. I would definitely tease the New England Patriots. Um, win or lose, that’s a plus

CV sign. You’re getting them up through three, through six, through seven, and you’re seeing a total that open 45 and a

half. Get that bet down to 43 and a half. So, that’s exactly what you want. You want a a game that’s expected to

have low points. The lower the scoring, the more each point is worth. That’s what you want for your teasers. The only

problem is finding another leg to tie him into. And right now, I would have to go with Tampa on Monday night. Another

perfect setup where the total open 46 and a half. Now, we’re looking at 42 and a half. So, you can’t get a better

teaser than that. Like, that’s a perfect plus CB teaser right now where you tie in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay.

The only thing you got to hope for is that that um Houston line don’t go to three tomorrow. That’s the problem. I’m

seeing two and a halfs minus 12.0. So if it goes to three, it’s no longer a wangable teaser. It’s no longer

advantageous. You’re better off just taking the plus three. That’s the problem. I’m not seeing any other leg

you could really tease today. And they’ve done a really good job of protecting themselves from them teasers

because again, those are very advantageous. You know, you have an edge on it. As long as you’re not laying more than 125 on a six-point teaser, you

could print money. really really got me mad this year and they’re blocking them. So, I live in New York and I use all the

books the like the I use all the legal books here and every year I use my

teasers with DraftK. I place my teasers with DraftKings because they’ve been minus 120. Since DraftKings came to New

York, FanDuel was minus 136. MGM was minus 130. DraftKings have the best number at minus 120. This season, they

have now moved it to minus 136. Yeah, because here’s why. Let me explain to you exactly why. It’s the same reason

on the if you walk through the casino floor on the floor the blackjack is now six to five. It’s no longer three to

two. That little switch of one rule where you no longer pay 3 to2 you’re playing six to five. Most betterers

don’t even acknowledge that. Don’t even understand that. But that change in rule made it to where someone like me can no

longer beat that game where I’m I could beat a game a fair game of blackjack but switching it from three to two to six to

five my edge is gone in teasers by going to 130 the sixpoint teaser is no longer

beatable at 120 you had a 2% edge all you had to do is tease through three

three six and seven and you had a 2% edge your break even was around 74%. if

you’re able to do that, you’re going to hit around 76%. So, they knew you had a 2% edge if you were teasing the right

sides. Well, most weren’t teasing the right numbers. So, DraftKings didn’t care. They had so much recreational

bets, they could keep it at 120 and attract all that teaser action. Eventually, sharp bers took advantage of

that. And that’s why it’s no longer available. If you’re laying 130 on a six-point teaser, you’re now taking the

worst of it. you’re hoping to be the product of good luck because it’s a negative EV bet. There’s negative

expectations on your bet there. Like that’s the math. That’s not my opinion. That’s just how the math plays out.

Uh teaser question. Do you have to play a favorite and an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?

My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet two underdogs. It really doesn’t matter. Um just don’t tease

totals. That’s it. And don’t tease across zero. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don’t go through those

zeros. We don’t go through those zeros. Uh Marley saying, “Hi, Yanni, by the way.” Good morning. Um any Steelers Seahawk advice?

I I like the dog there. I like Seattle. Um listen, the Jets were able to score

on the Steelers. The Steelers got, you know, the that field goal in the end. They got the win, but at the end of the

day, that you’re the Jets are able to move the ball like that on you. I don’t think Seattle, whose offense didn’t look

great, is going to have all that many problems. And defensively, defensively, what I saw out of Seattle last week, all

those turnovers, fumbles, interceptions, and they still limited the offense of

the opposition. I think the Steelers are going to have trouble scoring on Seattle. Um, I like the Seahawks. I I

think that three is a gift. Um, yeah, I like Seattle there, but I’m seeing Shawn Money coming in. They’re pushing that

Steeler from three to juice. I don’t like seeing that. I would have liked to see that two and a half this morning.

So, but I like the Seattle side. I liked a question that the chat also had and I don’t know where it is, but

someone asked, “Is there a side that the public and the Sharps are disagreeing

on?” I’ll tell you, Adam.

Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to go Broncos Colts. Um because I’m seeing a lot of one-sided public money

coming in on the Broncos. And again, in the afternoon, there’s not all that many games. Um, that’s Broncos, Broncos,

Broncos. I’m seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays, and uh sharps on the the Colts side. So, that’s definitely

one where it’s sharps on one side, public on the other. Um, yeah, that that’s one for sure that sticks out.

Speaking of that game, there’s going to be a lot of overreactions in week two. We know the public loves to overreact.

Miami looked like dog crap last week. The Colts, they looked great. even though I don’t feel like people really

believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to? Whether it’s for better or for worse, who should we not

overreact to this week, Yanni? I think the Lions. Uh, you know, all the the just how how bad they look. Lost the

offensive coordinator, lost the defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal. They beat the Lions

in game one. They come back, they win on Thursday night against a Washington team, you know, that coming off a great

season. Um, so Detroit’s kind of like that forgotten team right now. I think they win by at least 10 today.

I’m all over. Yeah, they’re my survivor pick this week for a lot of spots. I I picked them in my

pickup pool. I don’t normally love to lay close to a touchdown. The Lions matchup, I don’t believe that the Bears

run D was as good as it was last week in week one. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, they aren’t as good and dynamic and

versatile as the backfield for the Lions. The Lions should be able to run clock, run all over the Bears D and

cover the spread. Yeah, I I think so. And and also like the the Saints, again, I I I don’t

understand why how you could have these players out for San Francisco and yet

all the money is on San Francisco. Again, I know we usually overreact that players are worth more to the line than

they truly are. Um, but in this spot it’s like New Orleans was all all over

all already a team betters were looking to fade. They lost in week one to Arizona. Now they’re playing a San

Francisco team and like they’re fading them again. I think that’s a dangerous spot right there. Be careful with San

Francisco on the road on especially and uh players key players out. That’s one

that I keep seeing bet and uh seeing the over being bet by the public as well. Um

again, but the Sharks bet that under they’re usually going to bet the injured U matchups under. They went under 44 and

a half all the way to under 42. That’s why you’re looking at 41 right now. And real quickly, pay attention to that

because of the look aheads. So, if you’re looking at your odds logic screen or at the very least the free um wager

talk free odds and you’ll click, make sure you look at the date of where the line opened because the look aheads are

from like before last week’s games. some of them were or during last week’s games and those limits are very small. So,

they’re able to, you know, take some sharp action, but the limits are low off those first numbers. So, look at the

date from Monday on and then see what actually was adjusted because a lot of

them look like big line movements, but off of that look ahead, there’s not much movement at all. It’s just because from

the look ahead to where they officially opened for the week, there was a big gap

because of the overreaction like you touched on. Nick from New York City wants to know, “What are the most public totals for the

books that they need today?” Oh, yeah. That’s easy. There’s It’s going to be on the overs, that’s for

sure. So, start with over Jaguars Bengals,

over Giants, Cowboys, over Bills Jets.

Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most. Like it’s not even close. Like 90 plus% of the tickets and

the bets are on the overs in all four of those games. Yeah, a lot of unders in week one. We’ve

got prime time as well. So, we’ve got one game tonight between the Falcons and the Vikings. And then we’ve got two

Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see coming in there? Yeah, you’re seeing that that um Atlanta money

continue to come in and I’m interested to see if that land that scares me a little. I like them.

It’s down to that three now. I’m surprised. I was surprised that they were at three and you could even get him

at now plus three at even money because you know they got to juice the three. I’m like is it going to go to three minus 110 2 and a half? Like there’s a

lot of love on the Atlanta side. Um and the o under there from Sharf but the

public’s betting it over. And then tomorrow on Monday night, it’s the Chargers. Everybody’s in love with the

Chargers now after week one. Um, and playing here against Las Vegas. You

know, it’s a big Monday night game for the Raiders. Be careful there. It’s above that key number now of three. But

a lot of uh parlays and uh teasers that are going to be live from Sunday are

definitely going to be on the Chargers Monday night. Interested to see if that line continues to climb as well. But I

haven’t seen sharp money on those. The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers Texans immediately when that

line opened and they’ve just continued to bet that one under. That doesn’t surprise me. Uh Survivor

picks for today. Who would you do for Survivor? Well, obviously, you know, everybody’s

going to look at Baltimore if they haven’t played him. You got a double digit favorite. But there there’s no fun

in that. Uh who would I go with real quickly? I think I would take Buffalo. I

think I would take Buffalo. I don’t Buffalo’s not losing to the Jets. I I think it’s a decent spot to take Buffalo

in. Yeah, go with Buffalo. Buffalo.

I know that props aren’t as much of your thing as mine, but did did the groups

come in on any props today? No, that’s what I keep refreshing and I

they they will. I just haven’t gotten any. I haven’t gotten any yet. Interesting. Is there a reason that they

wait because they’re trying to wait for the unders? I think so. Again, it’s it’s early still in the season. Um,

but here’s what I noticed and I know that you can say and maybe listen, there

are some times where a prop will go from like I’ll give an example. Travis Kelsey

this week was 53 and a half went down to 49 and a half. At that point, I would say like I took under 53 and a half

early this week and I said, “Well, now it’s 49 and a half. So wait to see if it gets bet over and then you could go and

take the under again. But a lot of the times when I’m on the right side of that number, it drops and doesn’t bounce

back. So I don’t know sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders.

Like you’ve got to bet those unders early. I’ve seen so many numbers drop five 10 yards throughout the span of a

week and you’ll never get that good number back. I always tell bers it’s hard enough to

beat the market. Don’t try to play psychic on when you’re going to beat it. Like when you have a bet, fire, fire. I

I if you’re right more than you’re wrong, long term, you’re going to get closing line value. Don’t worry about it

on individual bets. It’s kind of like don’t overreact on any individual result, any one bet. The same thing with

closing line value. Like if the line moves against you, that’s okay. As long as in the majority of times it’s moving

in your favor, you’re getting better number by getting out early. continue to get out early. If that’s not happening

to you, then you got to revisit the thesis. But if if you’re betting early

and more times than not, you’re getting closing line value. Keep doing what you’re doing. You’re only going to get

more and more of it because you’re doing the right thing. If if you’re not, then you got to revisit it. But otherwise,

don’t worry about the time it goes against you. Because even with me, with the groups that I work with, it happens. Look, it happened with the Browns. I

took we took 12 and now I could get 13 today. So, I could get a better number today than what we betted at. That’s

going to happen. But as long as, you know, seven out of ten times we’re getting the best of the number, I could live with that.

Yanni, is Miami a good team in Survivor this week? Oh,

Miami. What is against the Patriots? No. I I I guess if you’re you want to take a

shot and roll the dice, that’s too much of a coin flip game. I think it’s too early in the season to roll the dice like that. like in week two to go.

You always talk about regressing to the mean, right? Miami is not as bad as they looked last week.

No, no, no. But here’s the problem. Here’s the problem. That it’s the NFL

season and it’s sure, Ariel, and we have those outliers. If it was baseball, I would say 100% Miami is going to regress

or progress towards the mean. There’s enough time. But in football, sometimes there’s not enough time. We have those

outliers where on paper a team’s so much better or worse than their record, but they just never have enough time to

become that team they’re capable of being. In baseball, you have 162 games. That’s why before the season started, I

could tell you maybe one team’s going to win 60 games. The first place teams are going to win between 57 and 59, maybe 55

and 59. Why? Because we have a history of 50 plus years of them playing 162

games. And that’s what happens. No one’s going to win 70% of their games, but in football sometimes that happens. Not

enough time to progress and regress. There are those outliers. So, be cautious with that uh quick turnaround

expecting the the bias to to flip back the other way. But yeah, I don’t have to take Miami. I’m cheering them in. I

don’t have a dog in the fight. Oh, we I love it. I love to hear all these sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube page over at

Wager Talk, you can scroll back and see everything Yanni just gave out. I see all your questions in the chat. Uh Yanni

talked about pretty much all those games, so make sure to take a look there. Uh lastly, I guess you said you

had a lot of MLB coming in, so anything for the guys that want to take advantage of a market that maybe is being ignored

today? Yeah, real quickly. 952 Pittsburgh and under eight and a half. 958 under eight

and a half Colorado San Diego. 960 under eight Yankees Boston 962 under eight and

a half Baltimore Toronto. Multiple groups blasted that one. 966 under eight LA and Seattle Atlanta plus 125 KC plus

145 Miami plus 125 dog on Sundays that time of the year for

baseball whether you follow or fade good luck today join us in the steam room kicks off in about 30 minutes we’ll go

through every NFL game and you’ll get those teasers about 15 minutes before kickoff as well

Yanni the Greek he’s always over here giving us these winners thanks so much Yanni thanks Ariel

coming up now we are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This time he’s

behind the counter. He is my very good friend, best friend of Kelly in Vegas, co-host of Kelly and Murray, but more

importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies. John Murray joining

the show. Hi, John. Ariel, best friend of Kelly in Vegas. I

don’t know about my best friend is my pug, Mario. So, come on. Come on. I thought that it was going to be a

raging endorsement to be Kelly in Vegas. So, how are how are you doing today? You

ready for the Ravens? I know they let you down last week. I I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember this?

The book needed Bills big time. And then I slid into your DMs after the game and

said, “Are you at least happy for me?” And you said no. One word answer. Very disappointing.

Football’s a selfish sport. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Okay. I’m not a happy person. Football season

makes me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice of you though. You’re a really great friend, JM. You love to

just harass us when we’re down. Keep kicking us. No, no, that was that was a big game for us. I won’t be rooting against you

today, though. I will I will be rooting for I’m going to root for the Ravens today for you.

Thank you. Thank you, John, so much. I know that week two is filled with overreactions. Uh but I know that my

personal group chat loves to know the needs for the Super Bowl this week. What are they?

Uh definitely. I’d say early in the morning we’re going to need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the

morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and a half point dog right now against the Rams. I

mentioned the Bears. We’re going to need Seattle. So Pittsburgh off their win against the Jets is a popular side.

We’ll need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy. Uh looks like we’re going to

need Carolina. That doesn’t sound like fun. That sounds fun. Carolina at Arizona. Think about think

about the NFL being on this side of the counter is you gota you’re basically going to bring for the same teams every week. I think this year it’s going to be

a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans, uh maybe Tennessee. Although I actually

thought that Cam Ward looked pretty good last Sunday to be honest with you going on the road against that Denver defense.

His receivers did him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right between the hands and them dropping the ball.

So, I don’t think Cam Ward’s going to be that bad, but I do think we’re going to need the Titans a lot. We need him today.

I know my group chat’s going to love to hear that the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are going to be the teams that they have to bet

today. It’s setting Who’s in that group chat, Ariel? Who’s in that group chat? Kelly, I

uh this group chat one of 80,000. Uh Chris Thirsten. I love Chris. I love

Buckeye Joe. Okay, I know who that is. I know. Buckeye Joe. Um I think that’s it. Everyone else kind

of has been eliminated from our lives. The chat bigger, but every year it seems like we dwindle.

Everybody else is off the hook. Off the hook. Everyone else off. That’s good. That’s good.

How about totals? Any totals? Uh, let me see. I’m sure we’ll we’ll probably need the under in the uh Yeah,

we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas City game. Obviously, that’s the big game in the

afternoon. Looks like we’ll want under in your game. want the under in

Baltimore cle Baltimore Cleveland game and the under in the Buffalo game. Buffalo and the New York Jets. We got

some money on the over in that one as well. We’ll be rooting for Oh, here’s one where we actually need the over. You

ready for this? We need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is all the way down to 49ers minus three. 49ers

obviously have some key injuries on offense. I mentioned the Saints. Spencer Rattler

is their quarterback for whatever reason and we will be needing them to go over.

Total right now is 40 and a half. That actually makes a lot of sense that that game would need to go over.

Does make sense. Yes. How did the books do in week one overall, JM? So, we had a great morning. We did great

in the morning games and then we lost every afternoon game last week. It was It reminded me a lot of like every

weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games were really bad for us. We really needed uh Houston against the

Rams. That was a really bad game for us. We lost the 49er game. We lost the Packer game and then all the moneyline

parlays and teasers went to Denver and they won. So, we lost every game in the afternoon. Luckily, and I’m not saying

this I’m not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo winning did bail us out.

Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail us out. Saying that to people, I will never understand why John

Harbaugh punted on fourth and three. I I I talked about this with Kelly. I think

I think one of the biggest things that doesn’t get talked about enough in the NFL is it’s not black and white like oh

should you go for it on fourth and three. It’s who’s your quarterback who’s the other team’s quarterback. If your

quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team’s quarterback is Josh Allen. Yeah. You need to go for it on fourth

and three. You don’t cramping. Yeah. You don’t Well, you don’t punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay. You’re

just you’re just saying we’re going to lose. If the other team’s quarterback was Russell Wilson, well, then maybe you

would punt the ball back, right? So, I think I think that that doesn’t get talked about enough when people are evaluating those fourth down situations.

But, I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it was very good for us. I’m sorry.

Hey, listen. I’m going to overreact and say the Ravens are dead to me until further notice.

Week two overreactions though. Where have you seen the public overreact?

Uh, let’s see. the public. I mean, the public is very heavily on the Rams. Uh, I mentioned that game. And then there’s

been a there’s a lot of money actually on New England this week. So, New England is a very popular side.

New England did lose last week to the Raiders, but they at least looked like a competent operation,

unlike their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who Well, that’s where I think people could be overreacting, though, that I don’t

think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week. I usually expect Miami to be a decent

team until two tongue of Viola gets injured, which he will, right? And then and then after that, the wheels will

come off for that that organization, but as long as two is in there, I don’t expect them to be to be terrible. I I

don’t think so. Uh the other team that’s really the most heavily bet team of the

day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don’t have as much money on that game. It’s more tickets, but so it’s not as

big of a need as some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the

points, Dallas moneyline is in every parlay under the sun today. I just made

a Russell Wilson joke. So apparently I agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible last week against

the Commanders, the football team. I I don’t blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably should have

beat the Eagles in week one. They get the Giants today. We’ll see. Those Giants. Uh, anything in the

futures market stand out after week one? Yeah. You know, they’re starting to bet.

They’re starting to bet on Green Bay, which I get. You know, Green Bay, uh, I

I look, I like Detroit last week. I think we talked about that when I was on your show. And we had a lot of guys I

respect on Detroit. That line actually closed Green Bay minus one. And that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay handle

Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe Green Bay maybe they’re

not that good. Well, they are that good, especially on defense. Uh Green Bay, I don’t know what there’s nothing you can

say that isn’t positive about them right now. As long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy. Micah Parsons is just getting his legs

underneath him. He’s not even at full speed yet. Once he gets I think the only not nice thing I could say about Green Bay is that everybody’s

on Green Bay. Yeah, but that’s true. But they were on Thursday and you know we did not do well

on the game Thursday. Every the public bet Green Bay for sure in that game and and they won it easily. So what what can

you say? The public isn’t always wrong. The public well hey look we uh the the

public was all over Terrence Bud Crawford last night here at Allegian Stadium and he won very decisively. Very

impressive. The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely

not. John Murray coming over to see us from the Westgate. I’ve got my pup. You want

to say hi to John? You want to say hi to John? I do want to say John J wants to say hi to you. She

really is mad that we’re just sitting here and not outside playing in this beautiful weather. Uh I guess final

question. Prime time games, two games tomorrow, one game tonight. What do you see in prime time?

Well, there’s there’s a lot of action on the two games tomorrow night and and kudos to the NFL. They’re finally giving us a true double header. You know, last

year they did a lot of those where they had the two Monday night games spaced out by an hour. Thought I found that a little annoying. This week we get an

actual double header. Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp

money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams that look

great in week one, how about the Chargers and Justin Herbert? They looked awesome last Friday night. They beat Kansas City

in in Sa Paulo, Brazil. They looked really good. You know, I love Jim Harbaugh. So, keep an eye on the Chargers. They I

think the Raiders will end up being a big need for the books because there will be parlays all day today going into

the Chargers tomorrow night in the late game. We’ll probably need the Raiders in

that one. We’ve got a WNBA question. What’s your feedback when the playoffs start?

Uh, let me see. the what was I mean repeat the question I’ll attempt to answer it what was it

WNBA any advice when the playoffs start oh boy let’s see well luckily for me I

do work at a sports book so I can look to see what the smart people bet on because I don’t know much about the WNBA

I apologize for that but certainly some smart money on it looks like the Storm

oh against the Aces that’s unfortunate the Storm tonight against the Aces in game one they bet down from plus 7 to +

5 and a half. They also bet the over in that game. So, the storm and the over

game one is tonight in Las Vegas. There’s a big sporting in sporting event in Las Vegas every day, Ariel, every

single day. And wait till we get Major League Baseball in a couple of years. I can’t wait. I will be there. I want to

go and make sure that we go to a real baseball game together. JM

live from Las Vegas. Thanks for hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving us the needs of the day.

Appreciate you. And not good luck. No good luck today. Oh, that’s nice. That’s very nice.

You’re welcome. I’ll still talk to you next week anyway. I appreciate that. Thanks, John Murray. Have a good one.

And if you guys don’t know about it, the oddslogic screen, you could go to oddslogic.compropeen.

And you heard Yanni mention it. It shows you literally all the odds on the board. It tells you how lines opened, how

they’re closing, how they moved, and every sports book, etc. So, oddslogic.com/prop

queen. Someone who knows about OddsLogic very well. Our good friend Carman Biano joining the show now. He’s not in Vegas.

He’s in Canada. What’s up, Karm? Not much. I can’t John Murray used his

luck today on Liverpool. They got a 93rd minute penalty kick, so he should be happy uh even if the book takes a hit

today. But um everything’s good. Um weather’s still good up here. No snow,

Ariel, don’t worry. And our our Blue Jays are still a top of the AL East, but

we won’t go there. It’s football Sunday. It’s football Sunday. We can talk about the AL East and that craziness this

coming week. But Karm, I don’t really get to talk much NFL with you. Usually it’s hockey, it’s baseball, it’s soccer.

NFL, what do you like today? Uh we’re going to talk like some

overreactions. So I’m going to go through some games. I think the the two that really stand out to me. Uh well, I have a 5% play up at Wager Talk, so I’m

not going to discuss that game. Uh you can get it over on my page, but one of

my client plays today is Denver. You know, we talk about like overreaction. Uh you know, Indie had a very good game

against Miami, but Miami I I thought Miami just looked terrible out of the gate. Uh, you know, I feel like this

line should probably be around um, uh, Denver two, two and a half. I’m seeing

like a lot of ones and one and a halfs on the wager talk live odds. It’s never going to hit three. It’s never going to

hit that key number. But, you know, Denver is supposed to have a good season. They have a very good defense. They didn’t play uh did did they didn’t

seem to be ready to play in week one against Cam Ward uh on the road in his

first start as a rookie, but they got the win and that’s all that ultimately matters. They don’t care about covering

point spreads. They care about W’s. Um I I I think they win here and uh and I

think they they they cover this spread easily. At least they they win by three points, which is more than enough.

Houston definitely on Monday night. I absolutely love that one. That’s going to be on my card as well, too. I just

haven’t loaded it yet at two and a half. When we talk about like overreactions, I’m seeing a lot of money coming in on

Miami. Miami is like up to two and a half right now. And I I still don’t get it w with the Dolphins. Uh I think once

they get rid of their once they get rid of their coach, uh we may see a change in this team. But I just don’t get how

the Miami Dolphins year in and year out look like a team that has potential to

win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight and eight n and

eight. Uh Cleveland Baltimore, you’re not going to like this one, Ariel, but I think Cleveland stays within the number

on this one. It it is at a point now where it’s at 12 and there’s always that back door if Baltimore uh was to blow

them up. But Cleveland’s front four is a very good front four. And if they can somehow uh stop Derrick Henry, which is

it seems like impossible to do, and uh and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay inside this number. Flaco

doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Uh the team can run. So we’ll we’ll see what happens here uh between those two, but I

think they can stay within that number. Everyone is on Baltimore in Survivor and I I absolutely understand that in circa

I think there’s 6,000 plus on the Ravens as the most picked team. San Francisco I

don’t get Ariel I don’t get the I I understand the line drop. Uh I do but

this is still a very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have to give me

M. Jones versus Rattler, I’m going to take M. Jones on this team. This team

still has CMC uh Persol. Uh Joan Jennings is supposed to be a game time decision and they still have that

defense. Uh while they have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense and

sometimes defense will win you games and put your team in a position to win games. It’s at three now and bettable.

At five and a half, I don’t think it was bettable. At three, I would take San Francisco even with the injuries. Uh

what else? Casey, a little bit of overreaction, I think, on that one. I get it. Philadelphia absolutely smoked

them in the Super Bowl last season, but Casey’s Casey is still Casey. Uh, and

uh, at home, uh, this is in Casey, I believe, is it

not? Uh, at home, Casey. Mahomes as a dog. We’ve talked about it before.

Not a good situation to bet against them. Uh regular season and playoffs are

two different beasts. Uh just ask the Buffalo Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in pre uh sorry in

regular season and then uh get eliminated in the playoffs. Uh two

different ones there. And then the final one I think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of like Atlanta getting the

hook uh at the three and a half tonight uh in that late one.

Kind of going through like the entire card today. I wasn’t expecting that. No, blasting through it.

No, I love it because these are plays. John Murray just came on and he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina

are the four sides that they probably need the most today. And I am not surprised because I feel like a lot of

people I’ve heard of are on Arizona. I get it. And I really like James Connor today in his rushing yard prop because

Carolina D is terrible against the run. Um, but I have a friend who works in

Carolina and he loves the Panthers today. So, I feel like there’s just like a lot of pros verse Joe’s today.

Shouldn’t he like uh Carolina though if he if he lives No, he works in media. Like he’s

nonbiased. Nonbias. So, he’s nonbiased. Okay. Well, I I get it. Uh, I I I always put my bias aside

when I’m talking about the Buffalo Bills as well, too, because you can sort of let that your mind

and um, no, I I hardly ever bet on the Bills. It uh, normally because number

one, the the spreads are just uh, even though they’re a good cover team and they were last year, the spreads are

normally just high. You look at the Bills today and we didn’t discuss the Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves

the Jets. Uh I I know Joe Reeri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems to love

the Jets. A terrible scheduling spot for the Bills. Ravens last week. They’re on a short week next week going to M or

facing Miami. So I understand. I had no I wanted nothing to do with the Bills.

Yeah. and uh you know and you look at some of the injuries obviously Ed Oliver uh missing is a a big miss for them but

you look at some of the injuries during the week uh um with regards like the

like even their running back uh he tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday uh he wasn’t a full participant on Thursday I

think he did practice on Friday so we’ll see what we we get from him uh Keon Keon

Coleman as well too and then there’s that guy who you just don’t want to throw at which is uh Sauce Gardner. You

know, you just don’t want to go against them. Uh and the and if you look at historically over the last few years um

with uh with Josh Allen, uh he doesn’t go after Sas Gardner. He’s gone after him a couple times. He doesn’t go after

him. So, it it’s who else on the Bills steps up. Uh we’ll see what Shakir does

as well, too. But, uh I understand the live live movement. I think seven coming out uh opening at seven uh was probably

not a great thing because it was always going to bring in Jets money and it’s down to like five five and a half I

think six. You know, the interesting thing is, you know, people talk about teasers. And while I I do enjoy playing

teasers, you look at the three most popular teams with like a six and a half point teaser. And this was as of like

last night, you could have taken the Bills, Zona, and Detroit, and essentially made all three games a pick

them. And those three teams would pay you back at plus 130 on a six and a half

point teaser. If you take the same three teams on the money line, it pays 140. And this is why when you’re playing

teasers, it’s important to keep an eye on the money lines of these teams and see is it better to play a moneyline

ticket than it is to play a teaser because you’re you’re giving up some value by not taking the plus 140 on the

money line parlay as opposed to taking a teaser. Well, yeah, we were just talking about

this before, especially with all these books now charging you minus 135 for a teaser, a two-legged teaser. Just

absolutely ridiculous. And seven, by the way, Jimmy Burke 13, terrible against

the run. They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey. They have been terrible against the run for the

last year and a half. They were the worst run D in football last year. And it didn’t change after they allowed

Travis ETN to put up 143. So, come on. Let’s It’s not just week one. Like, not

just week one. Sorry, I had to get that out there. Karm, what are you promoting today?

Uh, three plays up. Uh I gave you guys one of them which is uh the Denver Broncos, but uh a 5% play uh since the

start of the 2022 NFL season which dates back three years now. Uh when releasing

four and 5% plays and all of my plays uh this week are four and 5% plays plus 130

units uh at wager talk which is number one amongst everyone at wager talk with

uh NFL. And we’re coming off a 3 and 0 day in college football yesterday as well too. Um, I got what uh Ariel, I got

the closing line value yesterday on I released it early in the week because I figured the line would drop on Arkansas.

They were plus seven uh once Old Miss um announced their their QB was out. That

line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time and I got the cover. So, I’m pretty happy about that with with

Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But the weekend warrior uh package is still up. $49 will get you

all of today’s plays and all of tomorrow’s plays in NFL football as well, too. So, um that that is it for

now. No other uh no other plays up. Uh it’s been a great weekend, five and one

yesterday, and we’re just going to try and keep it going through Sunday and Monday. And we’re going to be sweating

the games live today. Uh if you guys haven’t seen it uh la or you didn’t

watch it last week, Enzone Live, which will be on I think around 1:30 today, I

could be wrong on the time, but Enzone Live today. Uh the press um there’s a

bunch of people coming on the show. There’s about four or five and we just sweat the games. We let you know what our bets are and uh it is like five guys

at a bar just talking trash to each other and uh trying to win bets because

sometimes we’re on opposite sides. So talking trash is great. We love talking trash. Karm, you’re the

best. Thanks so much for coming on. Good luck today. You as well. Thank you. Cody Holloway, I don’t know what FanDuel

you’re at. My FanDuel charges minus 130US 135 on teasers. So, I don’t know

if it’s a state-by-st state thing, but here in New York, FanDuel is not charging minus 110. In fact, I haven’t

seen one book charge a minus 110 on a teaser, a two-leg teaser. I have not

seen a minus 110 anywhere on any of the public sports books or the um the sports

books over here. So, I don’t know where you’re getting that, but okay. Last but certainly not least, as we mentioned

before with Karm Enzone Live coming up at 1 PM Eastern time and all of your favorite Wazer Talk handicappers will be

on there sweating out their bets. Andy and Pres are going to be on there. So Pres joining the show. How did week one

go at that endzone live betting show? Well, uh I don’t know actually. I just

did all the talking. Uh everyone who How did you do? I I did okay. I went with my clients.

The show was fun. I had a blast. Uh, but it’s a long show and you know it’s still

you got uh sunshine outside. Normally I would have watched the game at my pool.

I have like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the hot tub. But alas, I got to work and

I’m okay with that. I I uh I offered my services. We love to work. Pres, what do you like

today? Uh what do I like today? Um God, I’ll tell you. I I’ll go down the card at 100

miles an hour, but I do want to say one thing firstly, Ariel, you mentioned rough spot for uh the the Bills with

Baltimore back behind us and uh Miami in front. Why is it not a rough spot for

the New York Jets? Circling a game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it, then screwing it up at the

end, having to go in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having to say no to their wives that night cuz they are very

upset. then having to go to Monday and being lectured and reamed out uh all the

way through the week, feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves. The only reason it’s not is because the

Bills are on a short week going into Thursday. Okay. The only difference

I I accept what you’re saying and that’s what kept me off of the Bills today. But

uh yeah, no interest in the Bills today. But I agree with you that the Jets are not in any better of a position except

they are the home team and they aren’t on a short week, but I have no interest in the game because if

you think I want to be that miserable to have to bet the Jets this week, the answer is no. Okay. I like Miami. You guys were

talking about it earlier. Uh John Murray said a lot of money coming in on New England, which is very interesting given

that Miami is now minus 2 and a half. Uh we’ve done a deep dive into this and uh

if you can get a an an NFL team under minus two, you’re better off taking it on the money line. That does not work at

two and a half. At minus two and a half, you’re better off in the long run taking

uh laying the points. But I like Miami here and I look at it this way. This is

their season. This is this might be Mike McDaniel’s coaching career. that last

week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong in every way that if they can’t

fix it immediately, I don’t think they continue. So, I think Miami has to give

us the best game they can all year and they are at home and it’s a short price.

And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m an emotional uh when as a handicapper, I look at the emotions of

teams and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this game feeling really high on themselves. Um look, they they

won last week miraculous fashion. They’re 1 and0. They’re in a tough division. They have a game that is

easily winnable. Um and I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I’m not a fan

of Sam Darnold at all. So there’s two bets. I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami

and both of those two are in my circa uh bets. Also, real quick, Ariel, the show

starts at 1 p.m. The live show that we’re doing starts at 100 p.m. today and

yeah, it’s a blast. Last week, we had an absolute blast.

Everyone gets to tune in at 1 pm Eastern time to watch Enzone live betting show. You could see Fred sweating out all

those bets he gave. Uh before I let you go, I know you got to get ready for the show. Survivor plays today.

Yeah. So, I took Arizona on my Survivor play. And you know, Ariel, the the

Baltimore play for all the people in the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took Baltimore is now going

to get stuck having to pick between Green Bay in Detroit,

Washington in Dallas, or they’re going to have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because

Baltimore is out for Christmas or Thanksgiving. Whichever one of those it’s Thanksgiving.

Yeah. So, whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly because

would you take Green Bay going into Detroit? Would you take Detroit hosting Green Bay? Would you take Washington

going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington? No chance you’re taking Cincinnati in Baltimore. So,

I don’t get it. I try to take a longterm approach with this. Uh, so we’ll see. I guess there are people that take the

long-term approach. Then there are the people that take the I just want to survive to that point approach.

That’s probably most of the public the way that they play it. Uh I know that Survivor I know like Lions is probably

up there too for some people, but Arizona is a pretty I like the play even though I know the books need the Panthers. So good luck to you.

Yeah. And one of the guys in the chat room uh way back said, “Who’s a better better Giani or the press?” Uh, Giani

uh, lives, sleeps, eats, breathes. Giani

literally lives betting like nobody I’ve ever met before in my life. It It’s 18

hours a day. All he does is study bets. I do not. I am a businessman and I make

bets and I’m good at it. But Giani, Giani hands down. Although in NHL,

I’m way better than Giani. So that in that one sport, but Giani,

everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it’s baseball for me. I could be Kelly in baseball. And everything else, I’ll

give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds, and sleeps this stuff. Press, so do you, though. So do you. We love to have you

on here on Last Call. Have fun watching those games live with all the audience at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Everyone, make

sure to tune in. Uh good luck today. Thanks guys. Thanks for having me. Thanks for doing the cereal.

Of course. Pres. Okay. So for me, a few props that I gave out earlier this week

throughout the show. Jir Gibbs over rushing yards. James Connor over rushing yards. Travis Kelce under receiving

yards. I think Joe Flacco throws the football a lot in his first game back at Mnt Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Um

there’s obviously analytics and analysis behind all this. Um, so if you want to check it out, you can go to the prop

queen.com. Sign up and subscribe to the newsletter or you can watch my shows at the prop queen pod. Um, I’ve given out

all that info all over the show. Best bet right now, as of today, I took James Connor over uh

I think it was 63 and a half. I think it’s up to 68 and a half now. Um, but I took over 63 and a half rushing yards

for Jim Connor earlier this week. He is the Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers who I’ve mentioned

is the worst rund in football dating back to last year. Travis ETN just ran for 143 last week. James Connor last

year underratedly faced four different teams um that were bottom 10 against the run. And James Connor rushed for at

least 100 yards in all four of those games. They’re a six and a half point favorite. So if there is a chance they’re up, they’re going to run the

ball anyway. Take advantage, run down the Panthers D. Um, the only problem that we’d have with this is if it is a

close game. John Murray said that the Panthers are in need for their book at the Super Bowl. So maybe this game’s

closer, but James Connor should be able to run the football well against the Panthers. Um, but if you don’t like

that, then Jier Gibbs would be my second favorite over 67 and a half rushing yards. He’s also getting a Bears defense

that I don’t trust yet against the run either. They looked good last week against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones,

but we know that the Lions backfield is way more versatile and way faster than those two running backs. The Bears

allowed the second most rushing yards per game to running backs last year. So, I would take advantage of those two

running back props. Um, you can’t get the Travis Kelce number anymore at 53 and a half. It’s now 49 a half. Um, and

then I mentioned I think Joe Black has to throw the football a lot today at Mnt Bank Stadium. That is a very high pass

attempt total. 37 and 1/2 38 and 1/2. So those are like my top four props for

today. Um I probably could give you a fifth. I just have to go look at the

newsletter again to remember exactly what I gave out. Um I’ve also been

having some technical difficulties on my end on my computer today. Um

let’s see a fifth prop. And we’ve got Premier Lacrosse Championships by the way coming up in a half hour. So, if you

want a PLL play, Jared Burnernhard over two and a half points. He had four

points in the game-winning goal in overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlas are strong against the

attack, whereas Burnernhard runs out of the box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. Um, he had 37 touches and

nine shots, which was a season high in their last matchup. So, Gerard Burnernhard over two and a half points

in Premier lacrosse. Um, a few other plays in the NFL today. Cole KT under 19

and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch for 31 yards last week. We had the over on his longest reception that

cashed. But the Bears, they drafted Coloulson Loveland and he had two catches on two targets for 12 yards last

week. Kind of getting his feet wet. But now you’re getting a Lions D that allowed the third least receptions and

third least receiving yards per game to tight ends. Only 37% of tight ends went over their receiving yard prop last year

against Detroit. Um, I think Cole Kat takes a step back this week. So, I would

say under on his receiving yards. Darnell Mooney is a sleeperish play slash a little risky solely because he

missed week one with the shoulder injury. He should be playing today. Mooney had the most 20 plus yard catches

for the Falcons last year. He had 21. The next best was Drake London with 12. So, Darnell Mooney is your deep threat

in Atlanta. The Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers and second most receiving yards per game

to them. Do I trust the amount of touches? Do I trust the amount of targets that Darnold Mooney will get in

his first game of the year? No. But I do trust that there’s going to be a deep ball thrown to him. And against the

secondary, which is more vulnerable than their pass rush in Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over 19 and a half yards for his

longest reception is another play that I would take a close look at today. That’s it for us here on Last Call on Wager

Talk. I’m the prop queen, Ariel Epstein. Thanks so much for tuning in. We’ll see you guys next week. Good luck to those

bets.

College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

Urban City Podcast Group — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 16:51:19 +0000

Major Takeaways:

Significant line movement in the Georgia-Tennessee game suggests sharp money may be coming in on Georgia, despite strong trends favoring the Volunteers as home underdogs.
Notre Dame is a strong play at home against Texas A&M, fueled by urgency after a season-opening loss and a profitable trend under coach Marcus Freeman following a bye week.
Vanderbilt is a live underdog with a strong chance to upset South Carolina outright, citing the Gamecocks’ deceptive 2-0 record and poor offensive performance against weak opponents

College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

Welcome to the Blitz. Free plays for week three of college football coming right up. If you’re watching us live

here on the Wage Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now. Any game you want to talk about, we

will be happy to oblige. Of course, we’re talking all the big games for sure. That means Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, USF, Miami, Florida, LSU,

Arkansas, Old Miss, and Vanderbilt, South Carolina. Here to help me break things down, Ralph Michaels and Ross

Benjamin. And great news for all of you. The three of us have decided we like each other so much that we are now the

permanent team here on the Blitz each and every week. So, it’s me, Ralph, and Ross every Thursday live here at 1 p.m.

on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Ross, I’m going to go to you first here for Georgia and Tennessee. This is a

situation where we have seen significant line movement. We did see significant line movement early in the week. Number

dropped from Georgia 6 down to Georgia 3 and a half. I will tell everyone whether

this is true or not remains to be seen. However, a little birdie has indicated to me that we are going to see some

sharp money come in on Georgia in the next 24 hours or so. Ross, how are you

looking at this allimportant SEC matchup? Well, I mean, look, whether the sharp

money comes in on Georgia or not, um the line moved from six to three and a half,

right? And um I would say that that’s not public money. So

might be split here and uh the little birdie in the room that you heard from, I respect your opinion on that. But

look, here’s the thing. Tennessee’s 24-1 in their last 25 in Knoxville. Uh and

that includes in in 20 games against FBS opponents going 19 and or 21 games

against FBS opponents going 20- one and 14-7 against the spread. Ironically

enough, their only loss in that sequence came to Georgia. I just think this is a Tennessee team uh that’s built uh to

make a national title run this year. I mean, they they can move the ball offensively. I like their transfer

quarterback. Uh their defense we know is experienced and very good. Georgia to

me, I mean, especially last week when I look at their game last week against Austin P, they win 28-6. I think they

could be had, especially early in the season. So, I’m gonna have a small lean toward Tennessee here. And uh if Brian’s

right, maybe you’re better off waiting near game time where you in or over the next 24 hours like he said and you’ll

get a better number. But even at three and a half, I like Tennessee in the spot. Okay. I was doing this, Ross, not

because of your anything with to do with your breakdown. It was because Georgia, I think, could be accused the last two

weeks of perhaps a little sleepwalking to their first two opponents. They knew they weren’t going to be tested by Marshall and Austin P. But Tennessee

certainly, Ralph, a different story uh in a big bad SEC opponent. Nobody

is more keenly aware of the trends than you. Uh Georgia, let’s talk about the rivalry here. Uh Ross mentioned a

previous Georgia victory here in Knoxville. Well, last eight meetings overall, Georgia 8-0 straight up.

They’ve won those eight games by an average of 25 points per game. Now, some of those were when the Tennessee program was down, but Georgia’s covered the

spread in seven of those eight wins as well. What do you think? Does that history play into your handicap here at

all for Saturday? Well, you know, Brian, let me go back to your little uh your little statement.

Not only is Georgia 0 and2 maybe sleepwalking this year, Georgia is 1 and

11 against the spread their last 12 games as a favorite. Period. It doesn’t matter who they play as a favorite.

They’re one and 11. You know what that is? That is 8%. Now, this was an interesting trend and I

said, “How much does this really apply?” Because we’re only two games into the new season, but I looked and early in

the season this has been successful. Home dogs that have won at least seven

straight home games, obviously you can carry over a season, are 66 and 41, 62%

against the spread. And conference home dogs in that role are 64%.

Georgia, by the way, as an away favorite only 3-8 ATS their last 11. When I

looked at top 20 home dogs, they’ve gone

23 and 18, 56% against the spread. If they’re in the first two months of the

season, they’ve gone 60% against the spread. And if they’re a conference home

dog, they are 73% against the spread. So that is two top 20 teams, a conference

home dog, 73% ATS. And if you are one that bets money on the bets the money

line and you like Tennessee, listen to this stat and think about it for a minute

conference away dog, excuse me. In those 11 in those 22 games,

the straight up the dog is 111 straight up with an average line of plus 5.8. So

that means if you bet those 22 games, if you’re plus 5.8, 8. That translates to a

what minus minus 250 money line. 11 of

those 22 teams have won outright. I lean Tennessee. I’m concerned Georgia’s

offense, even though they sleptwalked, you still should do better than averaging 5.1 yards per carry against

Marshall and against Austin Pay. Uh I’m going to side with Ross here and back

the Volunteers as well. Okay. I’m gonna say Brian, I’m seeing a four and a half at

FanDuel as well. So, it’s three and a half across the board and four and a half at uh FanDuel. So,

okay. If you like Tennessee, that’s the place to go. FanDuel, I think the line is um going to, like I said, if you like

Georgia right now, uh I I think that you should bet them now because I think that I think it’s going to go to four and a

half pretty much across the board soon. Something we need to point out, two the top two the starting quarterbacks for

Tennessee are out of this game. So that’s something to watch again. The Georgia offense, which Ralph mentioned, has struggled has kind of, you know,

whatever the first two weeks, then they wake up and they take advantage of that. All right, next game on the list should

be a good one. Saturday night, it is Texas&M and game. Open the season

against one another uh last year. I had the first half under in that game. That was a winner. Uh I kind of like the over

though this year. Ross, uh what do you think here before the season? I did a special edition of the power five. I

said gave out some win totals. I said bet&m over eight and a half at plus 150. If they win Saturday night, I’m d I

think I’m dancing in the streets with that win total. I think that’s going to be looking pretty good. Uh but here’s

the problem. They’re two and 13 against the number under Elco, including 0 and2 this season. And they’re an underdog in

South. Yeah. I mean, and you look at Texas A&M, they’ve had struggles on the road the

last few seasons. Uh Notre Dame coming off that heartbreaking loss against Miami of Florida. They did have a byee

last week. Texas A&M, although they’re two and 0. I I’m just I They haven’t wowed me when I watched them. They beat

UTSA. Um and they also beat uh help me out guys the other game.

Yeah. So, I mean, it’s not like they won by 22 or 21 points in each game. Uh but

it they didn’t come clo close to covering and the opposition moved the ball on him. And Notre Dame here, keep

this in mind. Um under Marcus Freeman, they’re five and0 five-0 straight up in

ATS coming off a buy during regular season action. Uh 6-0 straight up in ATS

coming off a loss in their last six under Marcus Freeman. So remember Marcus

Freeman got off to a terrible start at Notre Dame losing his first two games and I think he’s somewhere around 33

and8 since then. Um and the Irish coming off a loss playing in their home opener

and uh unlike Texas A&M who could really if they lose a game they’re still alive.

Uh you’d be hardressed to make a a case for Notre Dame if they start out 0 and2 here as having any kind of decent chance

to make the college football playoff. So, I think the urgency lies with Notre Dame here, and I’m willing to lay a six

and a half at home against the Aaggies. Oh, all right. Ralph, I mentioned Elco

struggles at the old pay window. Marcus Freeman, Ross referenced it. He’s been quite good. He’s been quite profitable

back, uh, even though Notre Dame did drop that season opener as a road favorite down in Coral Gables. How are

you looking at this game? So, has&m been tested? Obviously not. They haven’t played one of the worst

schedules in the country, but it’s been pretty bad. And I found this very interesting, guys. There’s times that

even when I run data that I’m completely shocked. I ran the query, guys, that

says, “What happens in game three if you were a home favorite of 21 points or

more and you won each of those games by at least double digits and now you’re an

away dog?” It hasn’t happened very much, but those away dogs since 2016 are

actually 62% against the spread. So, I was going to say this. I think&m is an overrated 2-0 team based on who they

played. You know, yes, they have a dynamic offense with a couple incredible wide receivers. You know, Carver has

been amazing. Conpsion has been great. It it really allows Marcel Reed to

stretch the field. I do like Notre Dame’s defense, though. Yes, they

allowed 324 yards, but remember this is 324 yards to a Miami team that was one

of the top offensive teams that had a quarterback that was a transfer from Georgia. They were on the road in that

situation. So, I don’t think at the end of the year, I think that 324 yards that Notre Dame allowed is going to be an

actual positive number versus right now into the break it looks like a negative.

Uh, I did look up two other things that I wanted to share with you. Teams

off a ranked loss. So you were ranked opponent and you lost and now you have a

buy on de and you are off a buy. Those teams are only 49% at home. So it

doesn’t it doesn’t it doesn’t not a positive, not a negative, but I still want to share that data with you. So if

you have those type of thoughts, you know what the results are. But when that team is off a ranked loss game and they

had a buy, they are 70% to the under the last 36 games, 11 overs and 25 unders.

And that’s where I’m going to go here. Big game, national TV. I like these

teams having to feel each other out. I’m gonna go under first half in this. And

it’s actually one of my top three plays from the games we’re going to talk about. under first half, Notre Dame,

Texas A&M. Okay, there you go. Of course, guys, here each and every week of the Blitz, we’ve got you covered with the biggest

games on Saturday, but we also will leave no stone unturned. If you’re watching live, you can ask us about any

game you want to hear about, and many are doing that right now in the chat. I’m going to go to uh a question from

Adam because he wants to know about Georgia Tech and Clemson. I’m going to this game right now, Ross, because the

line movement, it’s a very similar story to what we talked about earlier just a few moments ago in the Georgia Tennessee

game. The market decided this number was too high at the open and money came in on the dog. We know Brent P at Georgia

Tech has been fantastic as an underdog. I believe they’ve covered six straight

at home against ranked opponents. I’m going to look that up in a minute after you’re done breaking this down. Maybe Ralph also has that one handy. But

Georgia Tech’s been very live in the home underdog role against top teams under key. What do you think? Clemson’s

not looked good at all the first two need to me. Yeah, they had to come back from a 16-

nothing deficit against Troy last week to win 2716.

They did have a strong second half. Maybe they can carry that momentum over. But, you know, I was high on Georgia

Tech to start the season. Although they just went seven and six a year ago, they were my pick to win the ACC at plus 700.

And this certainly, if I’m thinking Georgia Tech‘s going to win the ACC, they’re real live for me right here. Um,

and you’re looking at a Georgia Tech team, uh, that, you know, look, they didn’t even play with Hannes Hannes

King, their quarterback, who I think’s the best quarterback in the ACC when healthy. Um, and I know I’m going to get

a lot of argument there. Uh but having said that, he didn’t even play last week and they put up monster offensive

numbers. They were very good in their season opening win against Colorado 27

to 20. They were pretty much in control of that game from start to finish. Although it was just a sevenpoint

difference. Um and uh Hannes King uh again if he’s healthy this week uh I

like Georgia Tech even more. If he’s not, I still like Georgia Tech. I think Georgia Tech wins this game outright. Uh

Clemson again uh losing to LSU at home 17-10 and listless last week and now

they go on the road for the first time. Uh this is a huge game for Georgia Tech and I think they’ll be prepared and

ready uh to get the cover here at home. Yeah. And Ross, something else that the folks need to remember in case they

didn’t watch that game or had forgotten about at the Georgia Tech season opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech should have won that game by more because they

turned the ball over on their first three possessions. If they don’t to to turn the ball over three times and still

win, that says something. If you could because usually if if you if you turn the ball over three times, you’re not winning a football game. Georgia Tech

did against coach Prime and Colorado there in the opener. Ralph, I have do

have the trends right now in front of me. Under key Georgia Tech 9 and5 ATS against ranked opponents. They are a

perfect 646 as a conference dog of single digits.

in Miami last year. So, uh, will Mr. Key and those trends continue here, uh, on

Saturday? It’s a noon kickoff against Clemson. If Haynes King was 100% healthy and he practiced this entire week, I would have

been on Georgia Tech. Uh, he’s been limited in practice. They do expect him to play, but to me, I’m going to lay off

this. I do probably have some uh some fire starter in a uh Clemson National

Championship ticket that I bet. So, yeah. No, no team has been uh uh again,

losing to LSU is not a bad loss, but again, just just the vibes you get from this team after the Troy game. You know,

Troy may be better than we expect, and I like the way Troy’s played, but when you rush for 3.9 yards against Troy at home,

running the ball 31 times, only gaining 121 yards, that’s a concern for me. Can

the Georgia Tech defense stop them? Well, you know, they held Colorado to 305, but we know Colorado has their

struggles, and what do they say? Uh, if you have two quarterbacks playing, you don’t have a legitimate starter. Well,

how about if you have three, you know? So, you know, Colorado has their issues. The Gardener web game, obviously, Ross

had mentioned. To me, it’s Georgia Tech and the under. Not going to make my card with not being 100% positive on King.

Okay. Uh, we’ve got a lot of questions coming in on this Arkansas Miss game.

That game was in our rundown anyway. So, let’s go to it here. I see uh the main man Jay Buff. Thank you for the shout

out on my hair. I appreciate that. I, you know, always try to look my best here on the You sure? You sure it wasn’t me he was

talking about? Oh, I’m sorry. I apologize there. Okay. But, all right. So, Jaybuff, he really

likes uh these are actually two games that are on our rundown, guys. So, let’s uh we can hit them both. Arkansas, Old

Miss, Vandy, South Carolina. Couple games in the SEC. Yes, that SEC slate uh

getting underway. LSU Florida, too, by the way. We’ll be talking about that game. If you have a question, hit us up. But uh Ross, let’s go to Vandy, South

Carolina. I know you had a lot to say about this game elsewhere here uh this week on the Wager Talk YouTube channel.

Yeah, I mean, this game looks like a trap to me. You know, you’re looking at a number 11 ranked team in South

Carolina. And they’re just what, a three and a half point home favorite here or

four and a half, whatever they are, against an unranked Vanderbilt team who only got one vote, one vote in the AP

poll this week, you know, and that I got to scratch my head because right now to me when I look at these two teams and I

look at film on both of them, Vandy to me is the better team. I mean, South

Carolina 2 and 0. Deceiving. Why do I say that? They won 38-10 last week,

Ralph, over South Carolina State. But guess what? They scored three touchdowns by way of a punt return, a block punt,

and a fumble return. They only compiled 253 yards of total offense against an

FCS opponent. And and their week before they won against Virginia Tech 24 to11.

We now know that Virginia Tech is not a very good team and they benefited from a

punt return touchdown in that game as well and still uh did very little offensively. I mean they had all this

hype with uh Sellers at quarterback and they haven’t shown me squat offensively

in the first two games. Uh you look at Vanderbilt uh won last week 4420.

Uh they had a huge total yards advantage of 490 to 248. Um in against Virginia

Tech, a common opponent, same play team that South Carolina faced on a neutral

field. Vanderbilt went to Virginia Tech on the road and that game wasn’t even as

close as the final score may indicate. Uh that that’s how much Vanderbilt dominated that game. And uh look, here’s

the thing. They’ve lost 16 straight versus South Carolina over the last 16

meetings. You think that’s not big- time revenge? Because this is to me a much

improved program. Uh I like Diego Pavia at quarterback. Is he an NFL ready

quarterback? Not even close. He may make it in this uh Canadian Football League, but he’s not an NFL type of talent.

However, he’s a winner. Okay, he’s a winner. He knows how to get things done

at the proper time. And uh college football away underdogs of four and a half or less like Vanderbilt that are

coming off an away underdog upset win in which they scored 41 points or more. And

they’re facing a team like South Carolina who’s coming off a win resulted in those away underdogs going 9 and0

against the spread since 2003. Not only that, Ralph, those underdogs not only

covered all nine, they won eight of those nine games straight up. Give me the Vanderbilt Commodores, guys.

Oh, wow. Ross, he’s got a lot to say. I agree with you, Ross. I don’t know if Diego Pavia is a future Winnipeg blue

bomber or not, but I will take it a step further what you had to say about South Carolina. Right now, guys, there are

three teams. the AP top 25 poll. And I know there was a lot of controversy about that AP top 25 poll during the

week on social media. There are three teams that I think are wildly overrated. We can all write this down right now and

you can come back. If I’m wrong, you can make fun of me in the comments section or if you’re I’m right, then you can all tell me how great I am. South Carolina,

Iowa State, Illinois, all overrated in my opinion. I don’t think any of those

three teams end up to uh in the top 25 when the regular season is over. So, I

am with you, Ross. I think Vandy is live to go to Columbia here and pull the

outright upset. Ralph, do we make it three for three? Beating Kansas State and beating beating

Iowa is enough for me to get him in there. So, yes, uh, in that case, I totally agree with the other two. And,

you know, it’s not just the AP that’s a joke. And that’s why you can never look at ranked teams early in the season

because all they’re doing is basing on what happened last year. And if they win, they move up. they lose, they move

down. You know, I remember the, you know, when the UPI used to be big, that was the coaches poll. I remember

listening to Urban Meyer talk all the time and said, “I don’t even fill out my ballot. I don’t even see my ballot. I

give it to an assistant. He fills it in. He sends it in for me.” So, do not put stock in those. They are a joke. Um, you

know, there’s not there’s no reason for me to say anything, guys. I agree with Vanderbilt. The way they’ve played, they

should be there. I see South Carolina not being there. I think Vanderbilt is

the play, but I do like this, especially in the SEC. We see a team like

Vanderbilt who scored 45 against S Charleston Southern and uh and 42 against VTEC. When you’re scoring a lot

of points against weak non-conference foes and then you play your first conference opponent, your game plan

changes a ton. And even with that, Vanderbilt ran the ball 68 times in two

games, only passed the ball 48. They’re going to run the ball. South Carolina’s going to run the ball. They’ve ran for

73 times and only passed for 39 their first two games. I’m going to go first half under here again, guys. I know it

sounds like a broken record, but agree with the Vanderbilt side. First half under as well. Okay, there we go. Uh,

let’s stick in the SEC because, guys, the questions are rolling in in the chat. Jacob Hefner would like to know

what’s up with the line movement in Miss Arkansas. I was bummed to get the worst

of the number laying it with Miss. Ross, your thoughts on this one? My initial

thought was maybe to look at an over Arkansas. Uh they’ve put up some big numbers in the first two games. I

believe they’re top five in yards per play, points per game, yards per game, but look at who they played. It’s not exactly a uh a murders a rogue a murders

row of two first two opponents and then miss has a potential injury issue at quarterback. So interesting game here in

the SEC. Another one. Yeah, it it’s a game that I looked at up and down and uh couldn’t come up with a

decisive decision either way. U as far as that move goes on the line move. I I

think that Old Miss and I I’d be interested in hearing what you guys have to say. I think they’re a tad bit

overrated. I really do. Um they barely got by Kentucky last week on the road and Kucky’s not a very good team. I know

Kentucky beat them last year, but again they struggled to win that game and uh I

I I just don’t have a strong opinion here to offer uh the viewer uh in his

question. Maybe Ralph or Brian does. Ralph lines down to seven. Commenter

asked about the question there or about the asked about the line movement. Uh

any angle for you here on this one? It is I I would concur that miss a little overrated. Lane Keifin had to apologize

to the betters last week after the game uh when he gave up that late field goal not to cover the spread. And again, they only rush for 4.6 yards

per carry. That’s not a Lane Keifin team. They usually press that pace early in the season and do that. I do want to

comment, Brian. I I didn’t hear the the name of the person who left the note,

but my advice to you is this. If you like a game and a game has moved

two or three points, just don’t bet it. It’s okay. Don’t The worst thing to say is, “Oh my god, I took the worst of this

line.” There’s reasons you don’t bet games. And that’s one of them is because of a line move. So don’t fall in the

trap that you have to bet that game. If you got the worst of it, if it doesn’t come back, let it go and look how much

you save at the end of the year. Write down every win, write down every loss, and remember, for every dollar you save,

you’re saving an extra 10% juice. Um, I’m going to say that I actually think

Arkansas’s offense can move the ball here. I think they will be able to run against an Old Miss defense. So, if I

again, no real lean on the game here. I like Arkansas team total. So, if

anything, it’s a very light lean for me, but obviously if I like the Arkansas team total, that means I think they’re

going to get 30 points. So, that means they’re likely going to cover this game. So, by default, it puts me on the

Arkansas lean side. Ralph, with some very sage advice there, guys, about uh when you miss the best of

a number. Speaking of sage advice, the place to go, of course, is wageralk.com. And boy, do we have a special promotion

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So, uh, NFL will be up tomorrow, but, uh, certainly that $49, that’s a steal,

Brian. It is. Uh, I will have a 5% play in the NFL odds Sunday. I know we’re of course

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Michaels to talk about what he’s got going on this weekend before we get some more of your questions. I see the one

about Troy in Memphis. That’ll be up next. Uh, Brian, I am with you with an NFL 5%

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That is, as Ross mentioned earlier, a real value, a steal, dare I say. All right, let’s talk about this game here.

Adam wants to know about Memphis and Troy. You mentioned Clemson earlier.

Clemson played Troy last week. Troy was beating Clemson 16 to nothing. And Ross, they were probably feeling pretty good

about themselves, weren’t they, down in Troy, but they of course lost 27 to 16. So Adam’s question is, uh, do we like

Memphis to dominate Troy after that emotional roller coaster last week, or is Troy just getting going?

You know, Troy might be just that good. uh for a a Sunb Belt team and Memphis uh

was a favorite trendy pick I should say for a lot of people to come out of the group of five and they still may. Uh but

this looks like a tricky one to me guys. You know, I think Troy, if you look at how they played defensively against

Clemson last week, they just wore down because Clemson had more uh quality

depth uh in that game. And uh I think a lot of people are jumping aboard the

Troy bandwagon this week and that line moved from six to three and a half. Uh

again, that might be some sharp money because it came in early or might be an overreaction to what we saw in week one,

but this game is not going to get any of my money, Brian. And uh I I’d like to give uh Adam a definitive answer, but uh

I just think there’s more value to be found on the College Football on Saturday. Yeah, if you like Troy,

unfortunately you did miss the best of the number there. U Memphis Ralph, very interesting. They the final score says

they dominated their FCS opponent Chattanooga last week 45 to have a pick six though in that game. I always think

that’s important to note. Uh Ross earlier in talking about that South Carolina the first week talked about all

their non-offensive scores. So uh what do we think is Troy for real or is this a tough spot? You know, you’re up on a

team like Clemson 16 nothing. You think it’s going to be one of the big defining wins in program history and then you get kind of boat raised in the second half.

What do you have left emotionally in the tank because Memphis uh as Ross mentioned is one of the legit contenders

to nab that G5 playoff spot? Mentioned Brian, you mentioned the pick six. More importantly, they went to

Georgia State as that solid favorite. They only had a 401 to 389 yard edge. They were only a plus 12 yards overall.

So, I mean, that’s a very misleading final. They allowed 340 yards passing. Troy is a team that I really like this

year. Why? Because we have secondyear head coach Gerard Parker. Think about

Troy last year. They started the season 1 and eight. What do they do? They beat Coastal Carolina. They go to Georgia

Southern. They win. They lose that UL. Not a bad loss. Then they beat Southern Miss. Now you have a team in their

second year as a head coach. I think it’s easy to rally in your second year.

a coach that won four of the last five four three of the last four games after starting one and eight coming off and

winning uh the opener and then playing that well against Clemson. To me, I am sold on Troy at least for the next

couple weeks. We’ll see what happens. All right, there you go. Memphis and Troy. Hopefully that helped you there a

little bit. Uh we’re going to now go back to our rundown. We’re going to leave the chat for a little bit. Keep those questions coming, guys. Uh we are

going to be hitting LSU and Florida. Very big weekend in the SEC. Uh, but what other games do you want to know

about? There’s a just a random game you have a question about. You’re watching us right now live. Drop that question in

the chat. We will get to it. But I want to get to a very You talk about G5 contenders for that playoff spot. Ross,

I think you have to be talking about the USF Bulls right now who have beaten Boise State and they have beaten

Florida. Now they face Miami of Florida. Needless to say, now

as impressive as the non-con has been here so far for the Bulls that to get that playoff spot, they need to win the

American and that’s, you know, several months down the line. But, uh, I’ve got a a question for you here.

True or false? Does USF care more about winning this game or just keeping it

close? Because here’s the thing. If they can in fact win their conference down

the line and they just simply keep this game close against Miami, then yeah,

it’s going to be impossible to keep them out of the college football playoff uh come December. So, I asked that to you

because they’re getting a big number here. And if they’re down 20 late, I think they really care about

punching it in a touchdown and which would obviously get them under the number here because I think they want

the committee at the end of the season to look back and say, “Hey, USF only lost by such and such to Miami, or am I

crazy or am I overthinking things?” Yeah. No. Uh, you make good points. Uh,

but I do think that a team that knocks off a nationally ranked team at the time, Boise State, and then another

nationally ranked team at Florida, uh, is not going to just hope they’re keeping it close. You know, they they

really I I truly believe they believe they could win this game. And, um, talk

about a group of five contender right now, uh, to get to the playoffs. Whoever wins that American to me is going to be

the group of five contender. I mean, that’s a better conference than people realize right now. Navyy’s also pretty

good, although they lack the uh overall depth and quality depth and defense as

uh some of the top contenders in that conference do. Uh but, um here’s what

scares me, Brian. Miami of Florida, they’re not going to catch them by surprise. Okay? Uh they’re not going to

be Miami of Florida is not going to take this game lightly. Miami of Florida is not going to waste a win over Notre Dame

in their season opener. They’re a very talented team. And it also strikes me

that this game opened at 15 and a half and very quickly, very quickly, right

after it opened, shot up to 17. Sharp money to me. Um, if I I’m not going to

use this game. Um, I do like the points you make, Brian, but I I I truly believe

that South Florida wants to win this game and believes they could. Now, wanting to do so, uh, and doing it are

two different things. I have a slight slight lean, Ralph, toward Miami here,

uh, because of that early line move. just, you know, you would think that a double-digit underdog that just pulled

off two upsets in a row against quality competition and people would jump all

over that, but that wasn’t the case. And to me, that move is sharp money. That’s

not public money. So, I think Miami, there’s no way that Miami wants to uh

contend for a national championship and lose to their little brother in South

Florida. And that’s basically how they look at things. So, uh, it’s it’s a tough call, but if I you put the

proverbial gun to my head, I would lay the points with Miami. Okay. What do you say, Ralph? It’s the third straight week facing a ranked

opponent for USF. Well, you know, Brian, I was on USF against Boise. We talked about Byron

Brown, how good he was before he got injured and he came back and he looks to be the same player. But um when you

asked your question about do they want to keep it close, there’s no other game on the board more

than this one that sets it up for a back door cover. USF has South Carolina State

at home on deck, followed by Charlotte at deck. Miami has big brother Florida at home

and then they go to Florida State, the other instate rival. So you’re talking about them. They How many times do you

play four instate teams in a row? Bthoon, Cookman, USF, Florida, and Florida State. So to me, the situation

clearly screams USF with no one on deck. I could see Florida resting some starters before they host Florida next

week if they’re up by that formentioned, you said three or four touchdowns into the fourth quarter. I actually was close

to using USF, but again, trends are either to help you make a bet or to keep

you off a bet. And these trends are keeping me off USF. So guys, I’m gonna

put you on the spot real quick. I need a real quick answer from you. How many times since 2008, so we’re talking what,

16 years, has a college football team won back-to-back games as a dog? It sounds

easy, the first two games of the season as a dog. I was shocked how low this number was.

Yeah. Um, I would have thought that it would be not real though, but um, now

that you mentioned that, Ralph engage, I’d love to play poker with you because you just showed your hand for crying out

loud. I’ve seen 14 14 teams 14 teams

since 2008 have went back-to-back games as a dog. Next week, they’ve gone six and seven. But then I went and did this.

How many teams were an away dog and one as a dog of

three or more? and then one as a dog of 14 or more like USF did. So, back-to-back wins any time in the

season, not through the first weeks of the season. The next game, it’s only happened uh 30 times since 2018. The

next week, they are 9 and 21 against the spread, that is 30%. And if they’re a double- digit dog, they are 2 and4

against the spread. So, some serious numbers for teams playing that third straight underdog role. And

while I like USF and I would still give out USF as an opinion, this is a

situation where those trends to me that make total sense are keeping me off this game.

Okay, so there you go. Battle of Florida there uh a little bit uh for both sides. And remember Ross, I think we mentioned

this Ralph, too. The first time we talked about Miami, I believe is when we were breaking on that Miami Northern

name game. there three of us gets late and the game is close, Mario Crystal

Ball will often do the wrong thing. So, we also have to college that certainly. All right. Uh guys, we uh there there’s

some weekday college football action of course this week. We’ve got a question from Colin Gregory on a f little Friday

night lights here. Coach Prime in Colorado. They’re going uh looks like they’ve made a quarterback decision

there. They’re going with the guy who was the original third stringer against a Houston team that I bet over six and a half wins uh to go uh before the start

of the season. I thought this Houston team was going to be improved in a wideopen Big 12. I expect Houston to win

this game at home Friday night. Ross, am I crazy?

No, you’re not crazy. Uh and again, this is a tough call for me. I mean, this game opened with Houston minus four,

quickly moved to six, and now there’s been a lot of buyback, Brian. I mean, down to four and a half pretty much

across the board uh in this game. and and yeah, I mean, I looked at this line

and it jumped right out at me and I it also jumped right out at me was the early move because initially my my

initial thought was Colorado might be a nice dog in this spot, but with the quarterback change and uh it’s not like

Colorado has looked very impressive to start the season. This isn’t the Colorado team from a season ago. Um

they’re talented, but not quite as talented as that team. And uh yeah, I would have a lean toward Houston in this

spot and agree with you, Brian. Yeah, it’s Ryan Stal getting the start for Colorado. We mentioned earlier when

we were talking about the Colorado Georgia Tech game uh that opened the season, uh Ross, Colorado could not beat

Georgia Tech despite that lopsided turnover margin. That doesn’t speak well of them. Now it’s a different quarterback getting the uh start here.

But Houston, Ralph H quite even last year when this team struggled, Houston

has a very solid defense and I like the coaching staff. I don’t know. I think this is a team on the ascent uh in the

Big 12. Have a secondear head coach in Willie

Fritz, you know, coming back and we’ve seen the Houston improvement and I’m a big fan of that. You know, second and

third year head coaches that continue to show the improvement with their squads. Um, I’m going to make it simple. You

know, this Colorado team doesn’t rely on the pass because they don’t have a quarterback like Shadore. But let me let

me The last two road games, the first two road games of last year with Shadore. At Nebraska, they threw for 40

times, ran 16. Against Colorado State, they threw the ball 49 times and ran 19.

Now, when you look against Georgia Tech, they ran the ball more than they passed. So, this is a Colorado team whose

offense is going to be completely different this year, is not going to be as dynamic, is going to run fewer plays,

is going to have a massive runto pass ratio, or at least a runheavy pass ratio

completely compared to last year, and I do like the Houston defense as well. Houston and the under for me.

Okay. Uh, looking at the chat here, Lucky Larry asked about the Notre Dame Texas. Yes, we did talk about this one

uh earlier, Larry. Uh maybe if we’ve got some time at the end, we’ll come back to it. Some quick thoughts. Nice time for me to remind you guys, click that

subscribe button down below. That way you’ll be instantly notified when the show goes live each and every Thursday

at 1 p.m. Eastern. But if we do have some time, Larry, we can just kind of do a a cliffnotes version of our thoughts on Notre Dame and Texas A&M. But I want

to get to another game here that Godfather J6 asked about. This is uh Bama and

Wisconsin. Alabama. I’ll tell you what, Ross. Uh Luke Fickle

uh he needs to get uh in gear otherwise it uh he may be uh selling his home in

Madison because this Wisconsin offense looks absolutely atrocious. Now Kayn

Dbor, everyone was ready to ride this guy out of town in Tuscaloosa, including that woman who uh I don’t know if you

guys saw this clip on social media. She said if she won the Alabama state lottery, the first thing she would do with her money was pay the buyout for

Kayn Dbor and run him out of town. I think that is an interesting use of winning the lottery. But I digress. Uh

Alabama killed LA Monroe last week. What do we think Alabama does here against

Wisconsin? They killed him last year. I remember watching that game. Uh maybe I don’t know. We liked Alabama Ross at the

start of the season. Then they go out and they lose to Florida State who might actually be a very very good team. So uh

kind of an interesting evaluation of the Crimson Tide right now where they’re at. this guy’s got to be related to me with

a a you know a handle named Godfather. You know it’s again I thought that Alabama woman’s going to take all the

money if she won the lottery and hire Ralph Michaels as a head coach at Alabama because uh anyway uh on a

serious note I think Wisconsin’s a very deceiving 2 and 0. They don’t don’t have

a lot coming back from a season ago. Uh Luke Fickle to me has not been getting

the job done at Wisconsin. It’s tough to get the NIL money there. And I think

Alabama, everybody threw them under the bus after that season opening loss uh to

Florida State. But maybe Florida State is just that damn good, Ralph. You know,

uh I my lean here is definitely the way the Crimson tied. I think they’re they

cover the spread by the half and then win going away. Um, I just don’t think Wisconsin has that type of offense. They

never had under Luke Fickle, uh, where they’re built to come from behind. So, I

think it could snowball on them very easily if they fall behind, uh, quickly

and I think that’s what will occur and I like Alabama to win big here. Yeah, the Wisconsin defense, is that

okay, Ralph? Obviously, they’ve played some some weak teams. Miami of Ohio. My god, they’re turn turn your eyes away

when they’re on offense, everybody. But uh the offense again for Wisconsin has

not been up to snuff and I concur with Ross the boss there that if Wisconsin falls behind I I don’t know

how they come from behind. So you’ve been giving out a few first half thoughts so far on the program. Ralph,

is this a situation where you would lay it with Alabama in the first half or how would you approach this game?

We remember they were the run of the century. I mean couple years ago, what did they go 14-1 on first halves again?

new head new head coach Kaylin Dbor and you know you might think well Bama has

George on deck but again there’s a by-week on deck so it’s not quite the same situation I think Bama uses this as

a as a prep game to show Georgia I think they’re going to try running the ball um

I am not impressed again I agree with what Ross said and what you said Brian that the Florida State loss may be a

fine loss in a couple more weeks I mean they were only outgainained 382 to 341 yes they lost lost by 14 the way the

game played out. But you can’t overreact to those week one games. Um I think I I

think Alabama is going to try to run the ball. I don’t think they need to pass it much. I think they need to work on that.

I think that Wisconsin’s rush D has always been decent. I don’t know how they’re going to fare here. Again,

holding Miami to 1.5 and Middle Tennessee to 1.2 2 doesn’t show you anything, but I actually like uh if I

had to play here, I would play this actually full game total because if they have some trick plays, Wisconsin might

try to use them early. You know, Fickle came out and said, um,

we have this Alabama game circled all summer long. Who the heck circles a road

game against a non-conference foe? I’ve never heard that of a Big 10 coach to even waste his time saying that. So

maybe he does have some sort of scheme that he’s going to try some fluke things early and they didn’t shoot. Maybe and

again maybe since they won 17 nothing and 42 to 10. Maybe we just think

Wisconsin’s offense is bad because he’s hitting the playbook until he starts to play Alabama. That’s a possibility.

That’s something we don’t know. I think the points are too high for Alabama on the road in this situation. But again, I

don’t want to be on Wisconsin either. But call me a pass on this one.

Okay. Uh something else we need to note here. You know, we talk about the Wisconsin offensive from Billy Edwards Jr. uh doesn’t sound like he’s going to

play in this game. So the task got a little bit tougher for Luke Fickle and

the team. Hey Brian, just to corre I mean again was an oversight by Ralph, but Alabama’s

at home in this game, Ralph, not on the road. My apologies. Thank you. That’s called Ross was making fun of my age before the

show started, guys. the green. Yeah, I I thought you were going to tell me that you Monroe had their game schedu

or circled against Yeah, good. Good catch there, Ross. Um,

all right. There the the SEC seems to be the theme here. We’ve talked about Alabama, obviously, whether or not they

can still be a force in this conference. Remains to be seen, but we’re going to learn something here uh in the SEC

Saturday night when this is the final game on our scheduled rundown. Guys, of course, we always are going to talk about the big games each and every week

here on the Blitz. If there’s a game that we have not mentioned that you want our opinion on, you only have a few

minutes left to get those questions in, guys. So, do that right now if you’re watching live in the chat. But we’re going to go to LSU and Florida.

Ross, is there some It’s interesting. There’s ways to look at there’s different ways to look at this, right?

Florida bad loss to South Florida last week. Look, you should never spit on

opponent. Obviously, the fact that you would do it a couple days after it made national headlines in an NFL game was really stupid, I thought. Then it cost

your game boy. It cost you the game. Florida and Ross said, you know, I’m going to do it again here. The seat, it’s getting a little hot in Gainesville

for uh down there because if Florida loses here and then as Ralph mentions uh

mentioned earlier, they’ve got Miami, Florida, Billy Napier might have to get that indeed.com uh

resume open again. Okay. Is there any way Napier survives to October the 1st at LSU, at Miami of

Florida, home against Texas, at Texas A&M? No chance. That is not an easy schedule. No, no chance he is around after October

1st. Well, if he pulls an upset here, Ross, I guess, you know, he could have some job

security for the time being. What do you think? Because to me, when I look at a team like Florida, who no one was expecting to lose last week to us, they

were a double- digit favorite. Obviously, look, we we respect USF on the program. We talked about that earlier, but people thought Florida was

going to win that game. To me, my opinion is always there’s some value now on the underdog. That’s what the market

seems. The market thinks this number opened a little bit too high. And as impressive as LSU looked against Clemson

in the opener, boy, did they just sleepwalk their way to a win over Louisiana Tech last week. Hey, Ross, let me jump in here and I’m

going to give people an angle and then I’m going to have them think of the angle after you get done. I’ll share the angle with them. So, Brian, this is sort

of something without you telling me this. What’s the ATS record for teams

after they lost as a home favorite of 14 or more? I’ll get you those ATS numbers

after Ross finishes his breakdown. Okay. Yeah. And I can almost assure you that Ralph is going to come up with an angle

that supports the underdog because I do same type of technical handicapping. And

I don’t mean any disrespect by any means with Ralph uh because but uh we think alike in that regard. So, I think um I

think Ralph’s going to mention that uh there’s an angle that supports the uh underdog in this situation coming off a

uh favorite loss of minus4 and a half or greater. Um here’s the thing with me.

LSU was listless last week. Brian, you mentioned that. Um I I just think that I

got to give them a pass. They come off their big win against Clemson on the road. Uh, and you know, you you

got uh Louisiana Tech in between the game against Clemson and the showdown

with Florida, who at at the time was a nationally ranked team when they faced them when they played last week. Uh, so

I to me again, I’m going to stick with my guns here. I think that LSU is the

best team in the country. I said that before the season started. I gave him out on the college football betting

preview show with Teddy. I gave him out at plus400 to win the national title. Now they’re around plus 800 or so. Um is

a singledigit favorite. Now if they were in the double digits of a touchdown or more, that’s one thing, but as a

singledigit favorite in this situation and uh Billy Napier, he’s on the hot

seat. Uh, it doesn’t look like the players really have his back the way they played last week against South

Florida. Um, I’m going to lay the points here with LSU. I know the early money came in on Florida, but I just think LSU

is that much better, and I think the seat’s going to get scalding hot after this week, Ralph.

All right, Ralph. So, give us the trend here. I know you you teased the trend. You heard what Ross had to say. He’s

sticking with the Bayou Bengals, LSU, Ghost Gaming Sport. uh give us the try.

Well, Ross, this isn’t a wow number, but again, I want to share it just so people know. I had the exact same thought as

you, Ross. I was expecting it to be a a fairly at least a profitable number.

In the last 107 games where a team lost as a favorite of 14 or more, they are 51

and 56, 48% against the spread the next game. So again, it it’s to me it’s as

important to know a trend that you had a thought in your mind and you know now that thought is should be thrown out

because it’s not relative either way. Um you know with Lagway I don’t know if

there’s legitimate reports that he’s banged up or just the rumor mills but that’s an issue here. Um I this is

another game where I love playing these conference games weeks two or three like this when you’re matching up. Now, LSU

did play some competition and yes, they were on the road at Death Valley, but they only had a uh you know, they only

had a 3 they only had 354 yards and they only rushed for 3.5 yards per carry. The

Florida defense against USF, they did allow 391 391 yards and they have been

sacked against each of their first two opponents, which getting a sack against Long Island and only rushing for 5.3 is

pretty scary. So, it’s going to be under for me again in this one. And something I want to mention and I am remiss for

not having this data for you. Big ATS difference in LSU Death Valley playing a

night game and a day game with this being 7:30 p.m. So next time LSU has a

night game, I’ll make sure I have those numbers for you here on the Blitz. But again, it it’s um Death Valley at night

games and Penn State white outs are my two highest rated home home uh home

field edges in all of college football. Yeah, something tells me this will not be the last night game for LSU, LSU home

game this season. I’m with you. I think they’re a strong contender right now with the question marks we’re seeing at quarterback with Georgia and Texas and

Alabama. I think LSU is very live to win the SEC. Uh we have one question coming in on a

another Friday night game from Godfather J 6 has chimed in again. He wants our thoughts on Kansas State, Arizona. We’ll

get to that in just a moment. I’m gonna just take my opportunity since this is a Friday game to promote what I’ve got

going on. Again, one more time, wp.buzzbe. We’ve got that weekend warrior pass. So,

if you want to get down, you get Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And remember, we’re throwing in Monday. Ross mentioned it’s

a double header this week on Monday. Remember, you got Bucks, Texans, Raiders, and hosting the Chargers. I

will have a 5% NFL play on Sunday. We will have uh at least three college

plays on Saturday. I know we’re going to we’re locked and loaded with three NFL plays on Sunday. And I might be playing

both Monday Night Football games, guys, in the NFL. So, look, $49. You can’t beat that. The I’ll let these guys um

after they’re done giving their breakdowns on Kansas State, Arizona reminds you what they’ve got cooking this weekend as well. Ross, I I’ll give

you I’ll throw it to you now. The floor is yours. Kansas State Arizona. And remind the people what you have going on

this weekend at wageralk.com. Yeah, I mean I can’t pull the trigger on Kansas

State. I thought that they would wake up last week against Army at home. Um

nothing embarrassing about losing by three on the road against a nationally ranked opponent in Iowa State. But then

the following week you come back. Yes, you’re weary from travel, but you’re playing an FCS opponent in North Dakota

and you need a lastm minute touchdown to win at home 38-35. Then you play Army as a 17-point

favorite. An Army team that lost to Ralph’s alma mater, Tarlton State in

their season opener. Maybe it wasn’t Ralph Alma matter. He’ll let us know, I’m sure. But, you know, and they they

laid an egg and they lose the game outright. Not only not covered, but they lose the game outright. Arizona’s got a

little bit of momentum after um a terrible year last year. They win their

first two games. Yes. albeit against less than imposing opposition. But I

think that Arizona State with the momentum and playing at home against a Kansas State team that right now I’m not

sure what you’re going to get from. You know, I I I can’t pull the trigle on Kansas State. Probably a game I’m going

to pass on. Uh but uh if you again, the proverbial gun to my head pick would be

on Arizona in this one. Ralph, uh, those who have followed me and have been on

board with me, uh, for any length of time before know that I am the ultimate buy low guy. I love to buy low on teams,

and this would appear to be a buy low spot on Kansas State, but I’m with Ross. I don’t think I could trust this team.

My power ratings say, uh, no, I mean, they’re back up to a road favorite here. I I don’t want to play them. I I know

they hammered Arizona last year in Manhattan, the Little Apple, but this game is out in Tucson late Friday start.

your thoughts on this one? My biggest power rating difference

and that’s just because I haven’t lowered Kansas State enough. You know, I mean, Kansas State is by far my biggest dropper in the power ratings this year.

So, I cannot back him. I understand your buy, you know, buy high by low situations, but it’s one thing to buy

low because a team lost but played okay. It’s another to get outgainained by 86

yards against Army and only rush for 74 yards against an Army team that has a

very small Dline against an opponent. I just don’t like the Arizona State side either. So, no opinion for me. I can’t

get I can’t get to either side on this. And just a reminder again, weekend warrior 49 Bucks a 5% NFL play loaded

for Sunday now. All of Saturday, all of Sunday, and Monday football included. A great offer.

Yeah, Arizona’s two and0 against the number so far this year. Um, guys, here’s a stat. This, uh, you know, I I

like you guys, I always pour over these box scores each and every week. This was the most astounding stat from last week

in college football. Okay, Kansas State second half time of possession against Army.

Three minutes. They had the ball for three minutes and a half. Tough to win when you only have

the ball for three minutes. Ross, yeah, I just wonder if uh Avery Johnson’s father and his brother got in

a fight after that game, man. after playing that way. Holy cow. Especially when the brother didn’t get

on the field for only three month minutes. You know, nothing unusual, Brian. You know, when you play Army to

lose time possession, but you know, you look at Army and it’s not like they racked up a ton of offense. They were less than 300 yards

on the game themselves. So, yeah. I mean, what what’s going on, Ralph, with Kansas?

You know, it’s one thing to say Kansas had three minutes of possession. It’s another to be a Kansas State team and

allow Army to run 82 plays against you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Well, to to

Ross’ point, Army’s a team they’re going to run that play clocked down. I mean, they their goal is to eat that time, but

even by an Army opponent standardized three minutes of time of possession is quite ridiculous. Uh we’ve been talking

about this weekend warrior pass uh several times. I should have mentioned uh when I talked about the 5% play that I’ve got this weekend. Six and two last

week for me in football. Three in one college, three-1 NFL. We hit 66% last year in September, guys, uh, in NFL and

college combined. So, no surprise that I’m off to a 75% start this year. Uh, Mr. Benjamin, I believe you had

something to say. No, I was just giving you a thumbs up. Uh, again, yeah, I I didn’t mention

again to review uh, four picks in college football on Saturday, including the 5% uh, best bet. You know, tough

week for me in the NFL, folks. I’m going to bounce back. I mean, look, I had the over on the Thursday night game, the

Dallas and and Philadelphia game, you know, 41 at the half and ends up 44.

Um, I had uh Denver minus 8 and a half. They win by eight and they pass up a

field goal opportunity with less than a minute to go on fourth down. um you know field goal opportunity would

have been from 50 something yards Ralph but you know you’re in field goal range when you enter the stadium in Denver you

know so uh couple tough losses there and then the Monday night game I lost with Chicago so I tell it the way it is you

know I I brag about my college football record but you know the NFL didn’t go as well and uh we’re transparent here folks

um you know we’re not making up stories hey Ross if uh James Franklin was at

Denver coaching they would have tried tried that field goal. Oh, there’s no doubt. Would have tried a fake field goal.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Um, just real real quick here

if you guys did you guys want to reiterate your thoughts on Notre Dame Texas&M because we had a followup on that. Somebody tuned into the show. Did

we want to give under first half for me? But I think there was some good information. Just rewind back and go view it again. I

mean, it’s only a couple minutes. So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Notre Dame coming off a loss with Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame coming off a

by-week. Uh, you know, again, Notre Dame coming Notre Dame beating Texas A&M on

the road last year. I know there’s a revenge factor, but there’s something to be said about that Notre Dame defense,

which is very experienced and held Texas A&M in check last year. I don’t see why the same thing doesn’t occur here.

All right, Colin Gregory, thank you for your kind words. I concur. It was a great show indeed. And if you thought it

was a great show, you can be like Colin and just tell us it was a great show. or you can smash that like button there

right below. We always appreciate your support here on the Blitz. We are live,

of course, every Thursday, 1 p.m. Eastern on the Wager Talk YouTube channel immediately following Andy Lang

and Wager Talk Today, a show that I know we all appear on regularly as well. All

right, that is going to do it. Remember to get your weekend warrior pass.

We’re all locked and loaded for a big weekend of football. Ross, Ralph, and myself. Remember, it’s going to be the three of us each and every week here on

the Blitz. We like each other so much, we decided to be your permanent team. So, on that note, guys, till next time,

let’s cash some tickets.

WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | MNF Vikings vs Bears Prediction | NFL Week 2 Analysis 9/8/25

Urban City Podcast Group — Mon, 08 Sep 2025 18:17:41 +0000

Major Takeaways:

Sharp money is already moving Week 2 NFL lines, with early action on the Colts, Eagles, Rams, Cowboys, and Chargers, indicating significant overreactions to Week 1 results.
For Monday Night Football, analysts are split but see value in the Chicago Bears as a live home divisional underdog against a Vikings team starting rookie QB JJ McCarthy.
In MLB, fading a struggling Aaron Nola is a popular strategy, with plays on the New York Mets’ team total looking strong against the Phillies.

NFL Week 2 Odds, MNF Picks & MLB Best Bets: Wager Talk Analysis

Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. This is Wager Talk today. I am your host Andy Lang. It is Monday.

Jumping right into NFL week 2 with a look at the opening lines. We’re also going to talk Monday Night Football. JJ

McCarthy making his debut. On top of that, Mets and Phillies are playing today. We’re going to break that down.

Giani is going to join us with the Steam Report. See where the money’s going uh for tonight’s game as well as this

upcoming weekend. Crackman’s gonna join us. We’re going to talk MLB or Monday Night Football. We’ll get his thoughts

on week one and Steve Merrill’s going to join us. He’s going to give you a deep breakdown of Monday Night Football and

then he’ll talk Mets and Phillies. We’re also going to take a look at what’s the overreactions from week one, where the

books won, where the betters won, and who were the big winners in props and fantasy football. Thanks so much for

joining us. Hope everyone had a great weekend. Hit that like button while we bring in Giani and get the Steam Report

and leave us a comment in the comment section. Gianni, happy Monday. I know it

was a busy busy weekend. Hope everything went well. I’m coming off a nice six and four day in NFL. You give me 60% winners

Gianni the Greek

every Sunday. I’m a happy happy man. How are you, sir? Wonderful, man. It’s been a a great start to the football season. Exactly as

I expected. I just hit refresh now. Currently number one in NFL and college football combined for 2025, up almost 50

units. And uh yeah, we’re just starting. If you’re not on the college football getting the college football action,

you’re missing out. Um, I I sent my subscribers, not for the daily guys, but I sent my subscribers almost what an

entire day of my stuff looked like. Just they voted yes. They wanted to see it. So, I gave them so much volume on

Saturday so they see what a betting syndicate actually looks like over a couple hours. The amount of plays that

they fire. So, it was a eye openening experience for them. And it turned out well. When all the dust settled, we

turned the profit. Overall, um, really good. Really good over the last couple weeks has been good. And now just move on to next week. Bottom line, the past

is the past. What we do ahead is what matters most. I don’t have the heart for for all the

plays that they do. My my my heart can’t can’t take it. Just give me some of my props and my random plays and uh I’m

happy. I Yeah, everyone style’s different. It’s We all have different like risk tolerance. We all are are able to handle

things differently. Like for me, it’s more nerve-wracking like zeroing in on one play and needing that one. You know

what I mean? It’s just everybody approaches it different. It’s what works for you where you’re able to be optimum.

I think that’s what you stick for. Whether it’s low volume or high volume, I don’t think there’s a a a correct approach. I just think it’s in what

helps you become a profitable better and that’s what you should stick to. Yep. Stay in our comfort zone. Uh let’s

take a look at Monday Night Football. To me, this is a pretty tough one when you got a quarterback making a debut like

that. You got new coaches and everything. Uh what’s happening here in this game? Well, no surprise. We saw some uh money

come in on the Minnesota Vikings early um like you said the the the question marks um for the Chicago Bears even in a

MNF Steam

divisional game even um being at home. Uh but since then we saw some takeback

on Chicago and it’s good two-way action. Like this is the kind of game you want to book um where you’re getting good

two-way money. Um the the opportunity to get middled really isn’t there. Um,

we’re also seeing under money from the recreational bers, which is a little surprising on a prime time standalone

game. They usually like to bet the favorite and over on those. Um, but historically, this has been an under

series. I think if you look at the last five or six, maybe only once. One time last year, one of the games went over.

Otherwise, it’s been a lowercing series. And I think that’s why you’re starting to see the under money come in from the

betting public. It’ll be interesting to see if the total starts reflecting that because you saw kind of a half point

movement towards the under. Uh but not much respect at all. So it definitely wasn’t short money that’s betting it.

It’s recreational bers betting the under. And like I said, it’s good two-way action. Some of the risk that the books have, they definitely have

some risk on Minnesota from some of the parlays um from yesterday, some of the

money line parlays and also some teaser liability as well. Um, right now you can

Teaser Rules

tease Chicago up through if you could get one and a half, you could get them up to seven and a half. That’s a plus CB

long-term profitable teaser. Um, but I think a lot already had Minnesota in

their teasers from yesterday because Minnesota’s decided they wanted to bet, which again doesn’t make sense, but they

feel a little more comfortable getting Minnesota at plus five or six, depending on what teaser they use. But I highly

recommend don’t tease. Even when it’s a standalone game, don’t tease totals. There’s a couple rules you stick by with

teasers and you’ll do just fine. Don’t lay more than 125 for a six-point teaser. Try to go through uh 3, six, and

seven only. Don’t bet numbers. I mean, teams bet numbers and uh don’t tease

totals. So, in a game like tonight with Monday Night Football, if you don’t have something to tease already for next

week, forget the teaser. Don’t tease it to the total. You’re not getting any added value. You’re better off straight

betting. Well, it had to be a huge week for teasers. I mean, oh yeah, all the all the all the all the most popular ones. I

mean, I’ll ask Dave Mason about it later this week, but teaser, it had to be teaser central. Uh

killed on those. I narrowed down those Wong teasers that based on the closing line and there were five that qualified, four of them

cashed. Um only one didn’t and that was it. And that was Detroit against Green Bay, you

know, the blowout. Otherwise, every other leg covered. So, when you have a week where all the teasers hit, what do

we do next week? Because it feels like the numbers are going to end up regressing to the medium. So, let’s take

a look here at week two and look at some of these opening lines. Uh, anything of note.

Well, Indianapolis Colts getting money now. The Indianapolis Colts were the forgotten team. Um, talking about them

NFL Week 2 Lookahead Steam

over the summer, they were getting no action at all. like no one even cared whether bet them to make the playoffs, not make the playoffs, overseason win

totals, underseason win totals. The books were really not booking much uh Indianapolis Colts. And yesterday after

that win, you saw money come in immediately and grab that three and a half on Indianapolis. They also took the

one on Philadelphia immediately. They laid the five with the LA Rams. Immediately, laid the three and the four

with the Dallas Cowboys after that one got dummy down a little bit and also took the LA Chargers who’d looked

phenomenal on their prime time standalone um week one game. So, it’s Colts, Philly, Rams, Dallas Chargers

already seeing some sharp money for week two in the NFL. Remember, this is one of the most advantageous weeks for betters

because we’ve only had one game played and yet we have six game week six days to analyze it and there are a lot of

conclusions that are going to be drawn off simply 60 minutes of football that just aren’t warranted. And that’s where

I think you’ll be able to take advantage of recency bias, none greater in week two because of the overreaction and no

data really to support it behind it. So, it’s all projecting. And when you’re going out on that risk curve, you kind

of want a a better return than lane 11 to win 10. But you’re going to see a lot

of opportunities to to turn a profit next week just taking advantage of some of that recency bias. Uh because again,

we only had one game played and a lot of analysis on that 60 minutes. As somebody that lives in Indianapolis

and watches the Colts and follows them, can I just say calm down? Calm down.

called block called day. You said Colts Super Bowl. Block. My Chargers future looked good. Go Chargers. Go Chargers.

That’s that. Yeah, I bet you got the way best of that number uh at this point. Listen, I’m rooting for the Colts. I’m

just saying let’s wait until they play a team with a pulse. Let’s Let’s just wait and see before we back up the BR. Never

forget the Saints last year. Uh did they win their first two games? Exactly. Came out looking like on fire.

Billion bucks. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, um, what, uh, what do you think was good for

for the betterers besides the teasers over the weekend? What, uh, what what did you see? I The under was what spoke

to everybody, I think, in that, uh, Pittsburgh Jets game. I know that was a big one for the books. What did you see

What did bettors win on NFL Week 1?

that the the Wise guys steam that one as well. They were steaming the under first half

and the under in the game. And again, that just didn’t get there. I That always worries me whenever I see shark

betterers on the same side. that’s truly one-sided. It worries me a little bit.

Um especially when it’s an under. Like when it’s an over and you got the the the the recreational betterers on the

over and the sharps on the over, that makes sense. But when you get the under steamed and the public’s heavy on the

under as well, those always worry me. Kind of like when I see the dog money, when when the public’s betting the dog

and they’re taking them on the money line thinking they don’t even need points and then the sharps are also on that dog, those dogs tend to worry me

most. um yesterday. I mean, you can’t really draw too many conclusions. Again, it was just one week. The lines were up

for a long time. These teams had plenty of time to prepare for that one single opponent. Um again, I think this is week

two is when you, you know, start uh not being able to draw conclusions, but I

think we’re going to see some teams like how they bounce back off a loss or off a win. Um and again, you got to take your

time. Unfortunately for NFL, it’s a short season, so you never really are able to get to that long term, meaning

there there’s not enough time for teams to regress and progress to the means at times. So there’s a lot of outliers, unlike in baseball, like we talked about

long enough season, nobody’s winning 62 65% of their games. You’re regressing, you’re progressing. That’s the bottom

line. There’s 162 games played. That will happen, but not so likely in the NFL or college football. Um, what stuck

out to me yesterday was the the the the public money was betting those favorites

like they usually do. And, you know, nothing’s really changed. Even though, you know, with more and more information

and knowledge and more sports betterers entering the party every day, but that the the biases are still the same, man.

They’re towards the favorites, they’re towards the over, and uh, books take advantage of that every single day.

Isn’t it amazing, Giani? Like we we do this every year and then it’s like we all know the public’s be playing money

like favorites and teasers. We know the Browns are going to screw up a game somehow. We know this team’s going to have a bad defense. We know this team’s

offensive line is going to be bad. Just like it’s like may maybe this is a little bit predictable uh from time to

time. So time uh let’s take a look at baseball. We don’t want to forget about baseball. There’s uh tons of uh tons of profits to

be made in there. We’re going to bring on Steve M to talk about one game in particular. Uh what are you seeing here? got a lot of games to to pretty decent

MLB Steam

slate here. Yeah, it’s a good good good good card today. Uh just three sides, one total. And also WNBA under Connecticut Atlanta

under Connecticut. The reason I bring that up is that’s one of those where it’s opposite what the recreational bers are betting. We don’t get heavy WNBA

action. But the couple bets that I have seen come in from the um recreational accounts. They’ve been on the over, but

that you have the the sharp money coming in on the under. Pay attention there. Now, Major League Baseball 953 New York

Mets even money 956 Atlanta plus 115 958 San Diego minus 130 and then 970

Milwaukee Texas over 8 and a half. That’s another one. The reason it hasn’t gone up to nine yet is you’re getting

some public money under there. So, that’s helped offset a lot of that risk. So, if you agree with that eight and a

half, jump on that before it gets to nine and loses its value. So, little slow in baseball, but again, it’s only

9:00 a.m. here on uh the West Coast, so we got plenty of time to uh see some

more action hit the window. Uh before we let you go, any takeaways from college football over the weekend

or any opening lines for college football that uh that jumped off the page that people are jumping on?

No, no, no. I mean, again, nothing really jumped out. We’re we’re officially now they call it week two’s over, but it was more like week three.

Uh so, we got it more data under our belts. That’s what I’m looking forward to digging into this week’s games that

we actually have something behind it, not just like projecting like we have some data to go by. Uh but nothing

really stuck out. We don’t have like no no huge huge um uh losses by any any big

favorites or anything like that. Nothing really out of the ordinary happened on Saturday. Uh but it’s interesting seeing

like some of those higher profile games get that though big teams have that loss already. You know what I like a team

like Texas, what do they do now that have a loss like that? Those things kind of interest me as we’re going forward

and how the sports books are going to handle that because you know those teams got to win and they got to win with margin now. You know what I mean? You

got a loss under your belt. You’re not just showing up even against a weak team that you’re a 40-point favorite. You’re

going to go in there looking to blow them out by 70, I think. Um so look for style points on some of those one loss

teams that still had playoff aspirations coming into the season. I think he could uh get some value there.

Uh it’s Monday Night Football. Got loaded baseball slate. What do you have up for clients over at Wager? Oh yeah, I got a two pack in the NFL.

We’re coming off a Sunday Night Football 4% best bet winner and we’re rolling over on Monday Night Football. Confirmed

side and confirmed total. So they’re both in the same package. 4% side, 4%

total. Currently number one NFL college football combined. You’re gonna want to see what the college football and NFL

action is the rest of this season. I’m getting some really good stuff as subscribers will tell you. And uh hopefully we just keep cashing tickets,

man. When all the dust settles, as long as we pick up a couple units, things are good. So, it’s been a great couple

weeks. But today, we start off 0 and0. But there is some soccer. So, go to the wager talk. There’s the free picks page.

I put up some premium soccer for you as well. There’s some World Cup friendlies out there. And Madagascar was big today.

They laid the the points with Madagascar. They laid 350 with Madagascar, 400 with Madagascar. So, I

don’t know. I don’t like eating that kind of chalk, but when I see that kind of they’re betting it every kind of way,

first half team total, when you’re seeing them try to just get down as many different ways on a side, I pay

attention. So, best of luck. Whether you follow or fade, hope you have a winning week ahead. Yeah. If you see that kind of movement

on soccer, Exactly. Somebody might Somebody might know something. Know something. It’s like when there’s a

random Yeah, it’s like when there’s a random tennis tournament. It’s like, why is everyone betting on this random

tennis? Oh, the other guys have got a pulled hamstring. That’s why. So, uh, Giani the Greek, everyone, thank you

so much. Uh, have fun at Contender Series tomorrow. We’ll be cheering you on. Uh, let’s do uh, let’s take a look at

recap here. We’re going to um, we’re going to look at some overreactions. We’re going to look at where the books won, where the betters won. We’re take a

look at some props and fantasy football winners. Let’s start with overreactions.

Uh, let me know in the chat which one do you think is the most accurate or which one is the most ridiculous? Uh, Dolphins

are the worst team in football. I saw that one a lot. Colts are a legit threat in the AFC South. Overreaction. Uh,

NFL Week 1 Overreactions

Steelers and Jets, two of the best offenses in the league. Uh, the Lions are now wrecked with losing the

coordinators and assistant coaches. The Cowboys are good. The Chiefs are going to miss the playoffs. and everyone

wanting to cancel their Red Zone channel subscription because of the commercials. That one was that that that to me is the

the clear overreaction uh winner for for week one overreacting. So, let me know

what you guys think. So, Red Zone. Yep. Yep. Yep. Lot of lot of lot of dislike

for Red Zone and then all of a sudden it’s really nice to have in your life on Sundays. So, uh let’s take a look at

where the books won and where the betters won. uh block that’s not my that

I’m I’m I go to social media for those. I ask people that’s that’s not my opinion. I just go to Twitter and look

and see what’s hot and what’s not. And that’s that’s where I uh that’s where I get those. So that wasn’t that wasn’t me. Pretty clear-cut where the books

won. The under in the Steelers and Jets game was uh it was it was over very very

Where the books won/Where the public won

early. Literally over. And then the Giants plus the points big line movement on the Giants. And the Giants they were

who they thought we were. Uh we’re the public one. Listen, the moneyline parlays and teasers with the Broncos, Cardinals, Bengals, and Commanders. And

I got to believe everyone did very, very well in their Survivor picks. Let’s take a look at some of the prop winners. Uh,

hope everyone did good in fantasy football. Justin Fields had to be a big winner for his props. Baker Mayfield to

NFL Week 1 Prop Recap

throw two touchdowns or more. Just keeps cashing. Uh, Ricky Pierol, uh, we’re not going to get that receiving line

anymore. He looked fantastic. Anytime touchdowns for James Connor and Derrick Henry and Jaylen Herz Herbert continues

to not throw interceptions and Amaika Puka Woo Tampa Tampa Bay look great with

him there. Uh fantasy and props losers Lions I’m not panicking on the Lions

just yet but St. Brown Gibbs and Montgomery were horrible. The Bengals were terrible. Chad already pointed that out. Burrow Chase Higgins were bad. Nico

Collins was bad and that Texans offensive line looks as bad as it was last year. AJ Brown was a bummer.

Pacheco, who knows what is going on in the Chiefs backfield and Bucky Irving was quite

disappointing as well. So, those are your props in fantasy football winners and losers. Let’s bring on Bill

Crackman. I’m interested in your take. Uh, NFL week one overreactions, big

winners, big losers. What’ you take away? Hey, Andy. Uh, you know, I actually liked your list wherever you just got

NFL Week 1 Takeaways

that from. It’s fantastic. But I’m going to agree with the public too. The commercials on red zone is stupid. That

the idea is to get red zones to get all your plays in, have your things. I mean, you know, to watch everything as it’s

happening. I don’t want to have a commercial when when someone’s, you know, in in the red zone,

hence to say the red zone. But yeah, so that kind of pisses me off, but nothing would surprise me with ESPN. Um, but

yeah, and some of those things, of course, they’re overreactions. And what people don’t fail to realize is

whatever the public is thinking, trust me, that is already in the next week’s

forecasted numbers when they when they the bookmaker that puts them out, they put them out knowing that that’s what

the public’s going to think. They’re going to think teams like, “Oh, maybe uh, you know, the Pittsburgh’s better

than we thought with Rogers.” And, you know, there’s some clear-cut ones there, too, though. Um, especially like like

Kansas City maybe, or even, you know, even Buffalo. Even Buffalo’s defense was very suspect. So, of course, the next

Dont think you can outsmart the bookmakers

week’s going to add an extra half a point or a point on the total thinking that Buffalo’s going to score a lot of points and their defense sucks. So, you

know what I’m trying to say is don’t think you can outsmart the bookmakers.

You know, uh, God blesses the bookmakers. Look what happened. That’s my old saying. Look what happened on in

the show I do on Fox Sports Radio Nationwide. We talked about we talked to their head of trading. So, and I tease

him all the time and say, “Listen, God blesses the bookmakers.” I mean, one of their biggest bets was on the they

needed the under on the Dallas game. Just think about that. They were like heavy heavy six figures under. How do

they win that? All over money came in. It was one of their biggest risk for the week. And by the way, the Eagles the

Eagles was giant for them. People laid seven, late seven and a half, even late eight on the Eagles. So that was one of

their biggest wins for the week was was was that game. All the bookmakers though that that’s just a representation of the

bookmakers in general, how they did for the weekend. They did very well again. So, um, don’t let anyone kid you and

say, “Oh, I think a couple favorites win. People tease them down. They throw them in the money line.” And, you know,

it doesn’t matter. The bookmakers absolutely kill it because of the teaser juice, the parlays, everyone’s up. You

know, I call them chowmaners. Like when you when you when you go to to a Chinese restaurant and the waiter comes to you

and you don’t know what you want and you’ve been waiting there 30 minutes and you don’t know what you want, you know, you say, “Give me the chowine.” You

know, like because you’re a chowainer. That’s what they do with these child maners. They go to the line last minute.

They’re online and every sports book in America has people that get shut out. Why? They can’t make their decision up.

It’s just like the ch the guy ordering the Chinese food. He can’t make his decision up. He goes to the window and

just says, “Oh, give me give me.” And then they get shut out. I mean, it’s amazing. Uh we have a we have a

challenge on one of my shows and it’s a it’s called the crack challenge. five games against the spread every week at

five minutes before post. So, it’s just that hard to beat. And I’ve had some

professionals go 40% 35%. That’s how hard it is to beat an efficient line.

That’s why week one was so tough, Andy, too. These lines have been out for months. So, um you know, like like when

I’m getting to a Colts game back in June, uh plus one and a half and now they’re minus one and a half. You can’t

give that to out to the public. You know, that’s another thing too, Andy. I hate I hate and some of them I know

I hate when people give out a play you can only bet at one sports book

they’re actually some friends of mine. I can’t stand when people send out games. Oh, um, bet games 359

Arizona over at Hard Rock. That’s going to be your official play. one one effing

sports book has it and you want to tell people that’s and now you want to grade your over 39 when it’s 40 everywhere and

the game lands on 40 and now you’re going to grade it a winner because Hard Rock and Florida had it or ESPN bet

where no one that has a pulse can bet and they get thrown out or DraftKings that throws out anyone that wins over

$100 on a bet. You know, I’m going after some sports books today. Um I hate to usually mention them by name. Um, but

yeah, the the this is this is what I get. So, I’m I’m kind of pissed off about a a couple things. And you know,

the this weekend was a weekend where I had great closing line value. And I’m not making excuses, but hey, I actually

lost on Sunday. Most of the pros did. I I didn’t get to hear what Giani said, but I’m guaranteeing you he said lots of

the pros did. I mean, for me to get out get to get to um Atlanta early afford a

line move. I mean, that that actually and and Seattle, I actually seen these games at post time minus one. I took two

and a half. I gave them out two and a half. Um these games, too. But at the end, like just to see those two teams

choke. Seattle was dominating the whole game. Atlanta missed a chippy field goal at the end. I mean, uh some of these

guys are amazing. They can kick 60s some yarders, but yet when the pressure is on, they can’t kick 35. They can’t kick

an extra point. So, um, which is unbelievable, but yeah. No, it was a it was a it was a a weekend uh that was uh

a little choppy on Saturday, but a small win actually uh for for like I had

Dallas. I hate giving all these sides out, but people want sides. So, Dallas, I thought it was going to be a great NFL

week. I had Dallas plus the points and um and and then, you know, you come right into getting a closing line value.

months ago I sent out Kansas City pickum minus like 30 and uh boy now here’s an

overreaction. Do you really think the Chiefs are that bad? You think they’re not going to learn off of a week uh you know o overseas and come back here and

and just not be the team they used to be? Maybe not. Maybe not. But they’re not going to miss the playoffs or I mean

I don’t think so. Um but yeah, so it’s uh you know it’s first week. I’m really

MNF Free Pick & Analysis

happy to get over that and get some unique lines in here. Um, we got Monday Night Football tonight. That’s the old

uh black and blue game there. And and you know that that this game is a great division uh rival game tonight. Uh the

Sharps are back and forth on this. I know I bet it when it was plus one and a half. Uh when the line came out, I bet

Minnesota. Now they’re minus one and a half. And see, perfect example. I can’t give that out to people and told people

to tell people to Yeah. to buy that. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. Now granted, I think Minnesota’s going to be

a better team this year. I think they’re going to be a better team than people think. I like McCarthy. I I I like just

the organization. I actually made some future bets on them. But I thought

Chicago I like the under on things on Chicago season wins, not to make the playoffs. Well, one of my one of my guys

that I really respect, he actually likes Chicago to make the playoffs. So, um,

you know, you get back and forth, but I got to stick with I got to stick with what I got to stick with, though. I I I

got to go with M with Minnesota. And, uh, if if you have to make a bet on something, my god, I would I would

suggest a money line on Minnesota. I like Minnesota tonight. Old division game. Love that. But, you know, I know

it’s hard for people to stay off the games, Andy. Monday Night Football games on TV. You got to have action.

It shouldn’t be. It shouldn’t be hard. I’m not playing anything on it. I had a six and four day yesterday.

I know. I know. I It’s our It’s our public service announcement. You don’t have to bet Monday Night Football.

Um You like any props in this game? I was has I’m on the fence. I kind of like DeAndre

Swift over his rushing and receiving. Couldn’t get there. Um a sneaky one is Caleb Williams not to throw an

MNF Player Props

interception. I think he only had four games with an interception last year, but nothing I actually got to the window

with my own money on, you know. Um Andy, it’s funny. I used to be like 75 78% all unders on my props.

Um it’s closing it’s getting closer to 50/50 now. So I’m going to give you an over that I bet. Uh I like Lovelin over

receiving yards. Uh 27 and a half minus 15. I’m looking at the bet MGM line. Um

you know you know new coach Ben Johnson there. He should have a he he really uh

should have a ton of two tight end sets. So, uh, I I like him over. Um, Caleb

Williams likes those little short routes. So, uh, I like his over on his yards tonight. So, there’s a there’s a

there’s a prop that I put my money where my mouth is tonight. There we go. Um, yeah, they got some uh Titans says he

likes running back Mason. I was I this is the books are lining this backfield

like it’s a true split. I don’t know if you saw the numbers. They got Aaron Jones at like 53 and a half and Jordan

Mason’s at 39 and a half. So, it’s like books are telling us both both guys are going to get it. I I like that Loveland

uh prop a lot. You could tell the books struggle with some of these props because they’re just vanilla numbers.

So, if you have a strong opinion one way or the other, you can really uh you could really get after them. So, um

let’s see. Anything else, Bill? Anything you like in MLB or you know you know I kind of set back now

when uh from you from Major League Baseball a little bit. a little bit. But as far as going back to the football,

you know, on a prop, I have no problem with you going over a yard or two different compared to a side on a or a

total on a football game. If I tell you to go over 43 and it’s 45, I’m not going to tell you to go over 45. But sure

enough, uh like like Lovelin was over 27 and a half minus 15. Then I seen over 29

and a half minus 110. I have no problem uh doing that and and suggesting that in case uh people want to know about that.

Um, granted, you should have more outs. If you have more outs, you’re going to find I’m always going to release things

that are available at many places. So, I look at the DraftKings line, look at the FanDuel line, which many people have. A

big part of the public’s repertoire there is to bet those places. I sure wish I can bet in there. Um, a and uh,

so I try to give out an available line. Of course, I’m not going to give out something. Like I said before, I went off on that rant. Um, how about these

unders week one too? That’s another thing. So, if you look yesterday, the the first set of games, it looked like

NFL Kickoff Rule

they were all going to fly over. All the first halfs were going over and then 11 and two, I think. Um, even with this new

kickoff rule, which is totally totally insane. Um, you know, they 35. Well, I’m just

saying you only have to get you only have to get 20 yards and these guys are going for 60 63 yard field goals.

They’re trying to kick them 60 yards. So, you you didn’t like it. You you didn’t No, I’m just saying no, it’s okay. I’m

all I’m doing is stating fact that I thought these were going to I thought the NFL was going to take a while to

adjust and there was going to be a lot more points scored um in in in these games and and to not see it actually

surprised me. Um but you know I think I think people will get used to it and it’s fun. Listen, it’s conducive to more

scoring. They want more scoring. They want fans to have that retention. So uh but I was surprised of all the unders

that came in yesterday. Um, Bills Ravens the fourth quarter was just crazy too last night. That was just football, man.

Look look at how it you just toss a coin there. If you were to bet that game literally uh you know you could you

Bills vs Ravens reaction

could have won either sides if you have all different outs and you’ve been paying attention for months. You could have got to the lines either side you

could have had plus one and a half on that game. So, uh interesting games, a lot of fun and um yeah, no we got some

new stuff up there for wager talk. 200 bucks again. 199 for the month. I I don’t know. I I could have swore I

talked to the guys and they were discontinuing that Tuesday of last week. I don’t know. But I see it up there now.

So there you go. It’s I mean I’ve never had I’ve never charged less than $500 for a month. So uh there’s something to

get on. Jump on it right now. We’re going to have a lot of props. Week two, three, four, you’re going to get week five in there. And uh yeah, I’m sure

you’ll come back. So there it is. We got a we got a new one for you. We we got a new code for you. Uh crack wins

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Usually, I wouldn’t show that money like that. That was a photo when I was going up to the window the other day to sign

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to.” And we had Denver in that grandimo. And boy, I’ll tell you what, that was a sweat. That was a sweat. Even though

they won by eight, let me tell you. Yes. Uh Tennessee was driving there at one time going to go ahead. That was a sweat

even. So, I don’t know. Now, that doesn’t mean Tennessee is better than people thought and it doesn’t mean

Denver is worse than people thought. Just any given Sunday, anything can happen. Absolutely. Bill Crackman, use that

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10 bucks a day. Bill, thank you so much. Can’t wait to do it again next Monday. Bill Crackman, everyone, uh, we got another special. If

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Steve Merrill. And this is weird, Steve. Normally we do this on Tuesday and you

Steve Merril

got a $5 bill coming across, but we’re going to talk. We could have we could

Yeah, we we got $5 Monday. Sure, why not? This is called foreshadowing. This is called I predict

I predict tomorrow on Tuesday, September 9th, will be a fantastic special offer at wager talk.com called $5 Tuesday. We

Steve $5 Tuesday Promo LOL

are less than We’re actually less than eight hours away. People don’t know this, Andy. A little insider information here. Monday

night, 8 o’clock Eastern is officially when $5 Tuesday begins. So tonight on Monday after 8:00 Eastern, right after

Monday Night Football kicks off, when you’re jonesing for more action, there will be some advanced $5 best bets

starting to trickle. A blank starts to trickle trickle onto the site at 8:00

Eastern Monday. $5 Tuesday sounds a lot better than $5 8:00.

$5 Monday night after Monday Night Football kicks off. Be there. Yes, absolutely. Market shut that one down.

Uh speaking of Monday Night Football, let’s talk it. Let’s get your breakdown for the Vikings and the Bears, of

course. Uh I mean, lots of stories here. JJ McCarthy making a start. We got new coaching in in Chicago. This is an

Monday Night Football: Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Free Pick & Analysis

interesting game here. It’s right around even. I mean, you can tell the books aren’t don’t have a strong opinion one

way or the other. Even that 43 and a half seems like a pretty pretty vague line. So, they’re leaving some

opportunities here if you got a strong opinion. What’s your breakdown on this game? Yeah, the only thing better than

$5 Tuesday is free Monday Night Football. And I did a video for this game a couple days ago. It’s online

right now. Uh deep dive breakdown for Vikings Bears. I’m going to give you the free play right here on Wager Talk today

as well. I like the Chicago Bears in this game as a live home dog. Uh Ralph Michaels was on last Tuesday right

before me here with you Andy on Wager Talk Today. And Ralph had that chart of NFL divisional teams doing very well in

week one. Uh 65% over the past decade. divisional dogs that is doing well in

week one. And it makes a lot of sense. Teams know each other well. They have the whole summer to prepare. And the team that’s often the weaker team makes

adjustments where the better team doesn’t have to. And I think that’ll definitely be the case in this game. Bears last year struggled. They only

outgainained four of their 17 opponents in total yards. Uh there was nothing misleading about that five and 12 losing

record, but they do have a new coach, Ben Johnson, and they’ve got the more experienced quarterback here. here. And one thing Ralph pointed out in that

chart last week was how good divisional home dogs have been. The real sweet spot. In fact, over the past decade and

a half, they were 18-4 against the spread. We missed out with the Atlanta Falcons in that role. Although that game

went off in a pick them yesterday, and we all know that could have gone either way. Atlanta probably should have won that game in my opinion. We did see both

the Cowboys and Chargers cover on Thursday and Friday night as divisional dogs. Uh Giants missed out yesterday.

The Lions missed out, but I had a best bet on the Packers. The Lions were the most public underdog on the board for Sunday. Uh so definitely did not like

that one. But this is a public uh a divisional dog rather, which I think is live tonight. And I’m going to go back

to something you said is about JJ McCarthy not only making his first start, he’s like throwing his first NFL

regular season pass ever. He only played limited preseason last year. He got hurt in the first game against the Raiders.

Missed the entire season his rookie year. And I believe he only played in one preseason game this year. Uh, so you

talk about Green Monday Night Football, hostile environment on the road against what I think is an improved Bears squad

with a new scheme, new coach, new motion, and then Caleb Williams. We’re getting the better quarterback, the more

experienced quarterback as a home underdog in a divisional game, which is a strong angle to start with. Uh, so I

like the Bears in this one. If you want a little added protection, um, they do probably make a pretty good teaser play

now that it’s sitting at plus one and a half. Uh, you can get them up to seven and a half or more. We’ve talked about

how week one is not ideal for teasers because the lines are a little softer. But if you look back yesterday and this

week in general, teasers have done pretty well. Philadelphia Eagles covered the teaser, didn’t cover the line. Uh

you look yesterday, Seattle one and a half two-point home divisional dog also covered the teaser, but did not cover

the two-point line. Lost by four. Uh the Broncos 8 to9 point favorite. They win by exactly eight. The most public play

of the week would have covered the teaser. Um, so you of course have to tie that up with some advanced games for next weekend in the NFL, but I like the

Bears. I think they’re a live dog, plus one and a half money line, and they make a pretty solid six-point teaser at seven and a half or more as well.

Let’s move to MLB real quick. Can’t forget about Major League Baseball. Let’s talk this Mets and Phillies. And I

MLB: New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies

was looking at the pitching matchups for today and tomorrow. And it’s amazing that two of the same teams can have such

vastly different pitching uh situations uh compared to uh just just like

literally 24 hours apart. So looks like we got Mlan for the Mets. He’s been sharp. Only four earned runs uh 26

innings pitch. We got What’s your take on this Mets Phillies? Yeah, it’s an interesting matchup

because they just played at the end of August about just over a week ago and Nolan Mlan made his first start against the Phillies in that game. In fact, um

he’s had very limited action this season. Overall, he has only four starts, but as you said, he’s been an excellent 1.37 RA and part of that was

an 8 ining shutout uh just two weeks ago on August 27th against the Phillies and

he gave up just four hits. So, he had their number. I do think they’ll have a little bit more of an edge this time after just seeing him. They’ll make some

adjustments. Uh but he has been fantastic. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has not been for the Phillies this season. Um

limited due to injury. He missed uh three months, was out in midMay, did not come back until mid August, and he was

awful in the debut against not my Washington Nationals on the road in mid August. He gave up six runs in just two

innings, and he hasn’t been much better since. Uh gave up seven runs over 12 innings his next two starts, and they

got lit up against the Brewers, maybe the best team in baseball last week, giving up six runs in just five innings.

Uh, so I need to see something from Nola. You know, a lot of times these guys struggle in their first couple outings and then they turn things on,

but he’s had four subpar outings now since coming back from injury. Overall this year, an awful 6.8 RA in 69 innings

of work, dude. And this is a guy that’s a pure fade for me. And by the way, the Mets current lineup tonight, uh, 285

career batting average, and that’s over 280 at bats, 80 for 281, uh, 285 career

average. So the Mets hit him well. Nola’s in bad current form. You know, the game total at eight and a half I

think has value with Nola himself giving up six and a half runs per nine innings and nine is a very key number. But if you want to take, you know, Mlan out of

the situation since he did shut down the Phillies, we can always look at a team total and get the Mets over four and a

half at almost even money. Um, I do think the Phillies over three and a half could be worth a look as well as I do

think they’ll hit MLAN better here this second time around. Uh, but once again, Mets over four and a half runs against

Aaron Nola has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. I think has some value tonight on Monday. And by the way, this is the MLB Network

National TV game at 6:45 Eastern. There are 11 baseball games on the board tonight and I’ve got nearly half of them

analyzed for my clients and for free. I’ve got three strong best bets tonight and I made a three for one triple play.

Don’t sleep on baseball in September. Last year I finished on an incredible 57 and 28 best bet winning run over the

final few months of the baseball season. I’ve also got a bonus play for one of your late games tonight um in the

American League and also a free play video on the other late game in the National League between the Diamondbacks and Giants right here free on Wager Talk

TV. So, lots of baseball still to be played the next couple months. Cash in big and this is your last chance to get

seven days all sports football and baseball for just $77. Steve Merrill wageralk.com and get there quicker.

wt.buzzm. What a nightmare year for Nola. Like

this poor guy, man. He should have stayed injured. Every time he steps on the mound, it’s

just like just balls flying out out of the stadium. So, uh, great work there, Steve. Uh, takeaways from week one on

your team. We’re So, Andrew’s team won, my team won, Dan’s team won, your team

won. Uh, how are you feeling? Not my Washington Commanders, which would mean if they win, I lose. Not

NFL Week 1 Takeaways

until they’re the Redskins again. But um you know there’s a lot of excitement obviously with them making the NFC Championship game last year. I’ve said

several times I thought the best play of the season was the Philadelphia Eagles last year in that game uh fading the

Commanders. I just couldn’t see them in the Super Bowl. I still think they regress this season and let’s be honest,

the Giants are expected to be one of the worst teams in football. Uh, we’ll see. A stiffer test this week for not my

Washington Commanders as they believe they play Thursday Night Football against a feisty little team called the Green Bay Packers. And um I will have a

free play video up. I might actually record it today, Andy, and it’ll be up nice and early probably tomorrow and Tuesday for that Thursday night game.

Um, but yeah, their defense looked okay. That was impressive. I thought the Giants would get a little more. The Giants had a chance to score late. They

were driving. Uh, one thing I will point out though, as we’ve talked about, is that week one is kind of week 4A of the

preseason still, and we will often see results in week one that do not correlate to the rest of the season. I

heard you talking about the Colts and Dolphins earlier. Obviously, that was just a blowout offensive game for the

Colts. We’ll see if that translates to the rest of the season. Um, but for the most part, I think things kind of went

as they should. Tough loss to end the weekend. We had the Baltimore Ravens last night. I also did a free play video

for everybody with the Ravens this week. you know, 16 points in the final four minutes they allow after a fumble from

one of the best running backs in history. By the way, the Ravens ingame had a 99% chance of winning straight up

with four minutes to go. So, if you had Buffalo, you had a 1% chance and you got it done. You know, we’ll see if that

Bills defense gets any better, if the Ravens offense is really that good, minus the fumble. Yeah, Derrick Henry, they had a live

line on his rushing. It was like 176 and a half and he was over it. Then on that fumble, they took away nine yards. And

so did they really? You had a you Yes. You had a winner and then all of a sudden you had a loser. Like wow. That might be the worst bad beat

from one of the worst bad beats in the history of Sunday Night Football. That’s a bad beat. Yeah. When you have the over on Derrick Henry, he gets over

and then they take away nine yards because of the once again one of the best running backs in history. He passed Jim Brown for

career touchdowns last night. That’s how good that And I consider, you know, comment in the chat. I consider Jim

Brown the greatest football player ever just because he dominated more at his time than anybody’s ever dominated. I

think that’s how you have to look at it. Um, so yeah, that’s just insane. But that’s the NFL for you. NFL is back.

Brutal. Brutal. Anytime the books need to win, it’s like they just do. Don’t go there. Don’t be getting

conspiracy on me now. Come on. Thursday Night Football. Just saying. Exactly. That was 172-1 to the

over. When the team had a 41 points in the half and the total was 50 or less, it was 172 to1 to the over. It’s now 172

to2. I think there’s a chance I had that other one cuz I know I had a game a couple years ago. It was like a Colts

game, I think, or a Lions game. We had like 40ome points at the half and it stayed under, but I think the total was like 52, so it might not have

technically qualified. Um, yeah. But by the way, Andy, real quick for the viewers out there, if we ever

get a situation like that again, that was one of the best in-game live betting opportunities ever. In hindsight, nine

touchdowns and field goals and a fumble before the delay and then five straight punts end of game afterwards. There is

no question that nearly 1-hour delay allowed the defensive coordinators to make the adjustments, the zigzag like we

see in the NBA playoffs. Now, it might not work in all games, but if we get a back and forth shootout like that that gets a weather delay here in the next

couple weeks, I think that in-game under is probably worth a wager. Yeah. Yeah. Bummer. Bummer, man. I lost

a 5% on under one and a half rain delays this week at minus7,000. My wife and Mary

did win. By the way, my team did make it right on Saturday. It’s actually almost Sunday. They won at 11:45 Eastern

because they had two 1-hour lightning delays. I hadn’t even gone to the stadium yet for either one because they kept kicking fans out

and that game went took there like 10 people in the arena. So, weather was wreaking havoc on the East Coast this

weekend and we might get some more of that. We got a couple more months of a couple more weeks of September. I I do

think that is a good betting strategy to look for the contrarian call. You know, however the game is going, look for the opposite after the long delay.

All right, Steve Merrill. Uh have a great Monday. He’s in uh in play in baseball tonight, so take advantage of

Steve Merrill over at wager talk.com. Dan, what what is this? Shots fired. If

you’re live, if you’re betting a live rushing total, it it won.

Dave Dave Mason hacked in and wrote that comment. That was Dave Mason. That wasn’t me. He was the one

actually won. It It did win until it didn’t. You never won and lost the same bet.

Yeah. Yeah. No, that’s that’s pretty brutal. That’s That’s pretty brutal. I just had I had to see if you were paying

attention to the chat, Andy. I was just a little warning shot across the there for you. All right. Well, while I got you on

here, we’re going to get I I want Dan’s I want I want Dan’s opinion on something

and then we’ll do all around the world. Uh give you guys some free. All right. So, Dan,

you’re you’re the representation of everybody that had Denver in their Survivor.

So, so lordy, the game starts and you’re like, “Oh no,

Bo Knicks is going to play awful today.” And then uh what was your thoughts when it’s fourth down? They’re like, “Well,

we could ice it with a field goal. We could punt it.” No, we’re gonna go for it and we’re gonna throw a Hail Mary

bomb to nobody. So, walk us through uh

what what was it like having Denver in the Survivor Bowl? All I know is it was our esteemed leader

who is it was a a Denver fan in Kelly Vegas. Kelly in Vegas who said if Bo

Nicks throws two interceptions, we’re all going to lose our Survivor play or at least or at least lose the the cover

if people were looking at at Denver Broncos. And that was just ringing in my head when I saw the first turnover from

Bonex. I was like, “Oh god, the the Denver hype that we were sold heading

into the season is biting them so hard in the ass right now because they’re

just playing down to competition.” And really, if you think of uh you know what what you’ve got with Shawn Peyton over

his entire career, World Beaters who they will play down to their competition. So, like why I expected

anything different was crazy, but all I had was visions dancing in my head, Andy, of what happened last year with

the Bengals when they were the team. And I said it with you on Friday when I said they could be this year’s Bengals,

right? Because it’s it’s that much of a slam spot. It’s a slam dunk. And whenever that happens, it makes me

nervous. But, uh, it wasn’t there wasn’t a there were several moments, Andy,

where I was like, “Holy [ __ ] I’m screwed.” But then I was like, “But the team they’re playing is so

bad.” Like they were doing nothing to make me nervous. It was only the Broncos that were making me nervous. So we got

it home, Andy. I was even towards the end of that Cardinals game for you. I was starting to sweat a little bit. I

was like, “Is Rattler really about to tie this game?” Like very Cardinal.

Yeah. Very Cardinalsy of them. Oh, we’re killing this team. Let’s let them back in it. Uh, lucky for me, I I don’t know

if you saw the last play. It’s like, okay, it’s fourth down. It’s the last play of the game. Maybe you should keep the ball in bounds, Spencer. You just

throws it out of bounds, out of the side of the end zone. But, but we had a great weekend.

We survived, Andy. We moved. We survived. We survived. Uh, I did. We We had um I put the Jags in several of

our of our picks on bet online. We used We used the Jags. Picking myself. So, the circa entry, we

end up going two and three because Falcons end up screwing us, Seahawks end

up screwing us, and we had the Dolphins. That was just a wrong side. But the one that I wanted to trade out for the Dolphins was Jags, and I really wanted

the Raiders in our entry. Uh, unfortunately, my cohort, uh, Adam, uh, you know, he gets the final say. He’s

the guy who actually went and got the proxy sign up, so he gets the final stamp on it. So, hey, what are you going

to do? Two and three. At least it wasn’t an 0 and5 week. doesn’t take us out of contention. Exactly. And there will be a five and0

week incoming and I will be insufferable when that happens. But guys, you can watch that every week. Every Thursday

we’re doing Let’s Make Millions, me and Adam Rosenberg sharing our circa millions entry card. So,

but Andy, we did survive. We survived. So, the I will survive story. We get the

graphic lives another week. The graphic lives another week. Uh I got that I got that 49ers team

circled against the Saints. Yeah. I don’t I don’t care that they got close to Arizona. They were

non-competitive in that game. It was terrible. Early early look for me too, Andy. I think I’m a satist for punishment. I

think I’m going to go back to the well on the Dolphins because nobody wants to bet the Dolphins this week. And and and here’s one thing

that went under the radar. You’re not taking them to win outright, are you? I think I’m They’re one and a half point

favorites. So if it’s if the contest line comes around to pick them comes around to one, here’s the thing for me.

Is the Patriots looked awful, too. But because of all the other crazy stuff that happened, that’s going under the

radar. And this is the come to Jesus moment. This is one of those plays where everybody thinks one way. I want to be

on the other side of the bar with myself, just sitting there dancing with myself. So, uh, so maybe that’s what

we’ll be doing. I haven’t put it in yet, but yeah, it might be a little dancing with myself special. And the Dolphins

may be a bet for me. All right. Well, let’s close out with All Around the World. Let’s do some free plays for

today. A couple of these come off of the uh wager talk free picks page. Uh we got a prop here for Monday Night Football. I

would look at Caleb Williams over 20 and a half pass uh completions the last seven games of 2024 with Ben Johnson was

Andy Lang All Around the World Free Picks (MNF & MLB)

with the Lions. Uh golf easily flew over this number. Now Ben Ben Johnson’s head

coach the Bears running game for the Bears not as good as the Lions. So, I I think they’re going to get Caleb comfortable with a lot of quick passes.

He had 18 and 32 completions in two games against Minnesota last year. I think they’ve upgraded everything there.

So, uh Brewers at the Rangers. Uh I that graphic is wrong. It’s supposed to say

Brewers money line. Sorry. Supposed to say Brewers. I have no idea why I typed Rangers on that one. That’s my bad. Uh

Quintana for the Brewers. He’s won four out of last five. Brewers are just crushing and uh they they uh they swept

their last series and they scored 10 runs yesterday. My apologies from the from the graphics department. Cubs Braves. Look at Elder over 17 and a half

outs. He’s gone over in six out of the last seven games. Last two games he’s went 21 outs. In the last game against

the Cubs, he went 21 outs as well. So, uh, take a look at Elder to go deep into that game. All right. Thanks very much.

Appreciate you guys. Uh, it’s been a great Monday. My $5 Tuesday play will be up at 8:00 tonight. Uh, it’s for

tomorrow, but I already know what it’s going to be. It’s the only play that I’m going to have up today for clients. We’re sitting out Monday Night Football

because we had a really good day in NFL yesterday going six and four on our prop. So, anytime you can walk out of

week one was six and four Sunday, you’re going to be really happy. So, we’re going to uh sit out Monday Night Football, but at 8:00, get ready. We got

a 4% uh play that’s going up for $5 Tuesday. Big discount on that one. Don’t forget to hit the like button on the way

out. Leave a comment in the comment section and subscribe to the channel if you haven’t. We have so many breakdown

videos of individual games for MLB, for NFL, for college football. It’s the the

place to be to get all the best information for your bets. Thanks very much. Good luck on Monday Night Football. We’ll see you again tomorrow.

Take care.