WagerTalk Today: Free Sports Picks, NFL TNF Dolphins vs Bills Predictions, and CFB Week 3 Bets

Urban City Podcast Group — Thu, 18 Sep 2025 22:33:26 +0000

This content has been republished, rebroadcast, and/or edited under the Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY), which allows reuse, remixing, and redistribution with proper credit to the original creator. It has been enhanced by UUN for educational, entertainment, and archival purposes, which may include the addition of on-screen graphics, ads, narration, or presentation formatting. — Original Creator: [Channel or Name] • Source Video: [Hyperlinked • YouTube URL] • License: CC BY 4.0 • Content acquired: [insert date]

Major Takeaways:

Expert analysis and predictions for the NFL Thursday Night Football game between the Dolphins and Bills.
Free sports picks designed to give bettors an edge heading into the weekend.
College Football Week 3 bets highlighted with insights on key matchups and wagering strategies.

WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | NFL TNF Dolphins vs Bills Predictions | CFB Week 3 Bets | 9/18

We’re live. Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet. This is Wager Talk today. I’m your host Andy Lang. It is Thursday,

jam-packed lineup. Giani’s back with an episode of the Steam Report. We’re going to talk NFL College Football and of

course, Major League Baseball. We’re going to dive into college football. We’re going to break down a Major League

Baseball game and of course, we’re going to preview Thursday Night Football. Uh Joe Reneer is going to break down the

game and I’m going to give you some props here at the end. So, if you’re betting tonight or this weekend, this is the show that gets you ready to turn a

profit. Thank you so much for joining us. Go and hit that like button. No time to waste. Let’s bring in Giani for the

Steam Report. Johnny, hope you had a good couple of days. It’s Thursday. I know you’re busy. We’re going to start off with NFL. What are we seeing?

Yeah, sorry. Just sending this out real quickly. Uh a play that came in. Uh so far tonight, believe it or not, since

it’s settled, it’s good two-way action. And you usually get that on double digit favorites in the NFL. Like, no one’s

really in any big rush to go out there and lay double digits. And if you’re getting double digits, no one’s probably

in a rush to go out there and back you. So, it’s one of those standalone games that it’s almost like a MMA main event

with a heavy favorite where you’re kind of uh forced to get a little creative.

And that’s what you’re seeing because everybody that’s betting Buffalo um tonight um they’re betting them in

different ways like they’re teasing them with a bunch of stuff for Sunday. They’re using them on moneyline parlays.

They’re betting them in the first half. They’re betting them team total over. Like they’re finding different ways to

bet Buffalo instead of having to lay that heavy chalk. Um, we know that

immediately, um, we saw sharp money come in on Buffalo on the look ahead. The

look ahead was like 9 1/2, 10 12. It got as high as like 13, 13 and a half. And

that’s where you saw takeback on the Miami side, which isn’t surprising. And that’s why I always say when you’re following your odds logic screen or at

the very least your your wager talk odds screen, make sure you click that matchup

and look at where that line was and when did it settle because a lot of times we’re seeing big movements in NFL but

it’s based on the look ahead because again this week while we’re watching week three games there’ll be lines for

week four that are being bet but the limits are low and that’s why you see some of these two three-point line

movements But then after everyone opens up, you’re not seeing much movement. And that’s kind of like here now. If

everyone’s 11 and a half across the board and you’re seeing pretty good two-way action again with the risk being

on the Buffalo side, like if Miami won this game outright, that would probably be the best possible outcome for the

sports books. You know what I mean? It’s a long shot. Um, but that’s pretty much what they’re doing. The total, they’re

betting it over. Um, no surprise there. Uh you saw Sharp Money come in on the over, but at 48 and a half and 49. Since

then, it’s been the public betting over 50, 50 and a half, 51s. So, they’re going to tie it in, tease it with the

over. Um in tonight’s game, that’s pretty much what’s going on. Again, not the sexiest standalone game, uh but

already getting some action. Uh let’s move to Sunday. Are we seeing anything major in Sunday? I know

quarterback injuries have, you know, really kind of dominated some of these big line moves, but uh most of the

numbers seem to be settled in. anything jumping off the page to you? The Colts. The Colts immediately the

look ahead got bet and then through that key number got hit as well. Like they laid the two look ahead. They laid the

three minus 120 and that’s why you’re looking at three and a halfs and fours. It’s it’s probably even impossible right

now to find a a three and a half out there. Same thing with Atlanta. The look ahead was two and a half and three.

That’s what got hit. And then they brought out four and a half on Monday and that got hit as well. And that’s why

you’re looking at five and a halfs right now. But and any shop that went to six, we saw takeback on Carolina. So six or

higher, you’re going to get some sharp money on Carolina, which for the books, that’s a good sign because now they know

if they keep getting one-sided Atlanta money, if they want to limit that risk a little, all they have to do is go to six

and there’ll be some takers there. They could write some some action on the other side. If you don’t see them go to

six, especially come Sunday, then rest assured they’re taking a position on

Carolina because it’s been one-sided Atlanta from the public and that’ll be one of the more one-sided teased games

as well. Um, Vegas. Vegas got a hit. Um, we actually bet Vegas today again. I’ll

share that with you. Okay. I bet Vegas for them at the look ahead at six and a half and six. And I figured, okay, they just asked me to go

and bet that here in cash because I I figured that line’s just not going to be available anywhere. So, it’s just someone that wants to take advantage of

the number. The most I think we got down like 1500 on it. Make a long story short, they brought it out at like five

and a half. That gets hit yesterday. Four and a half gets hit today. Take the

three and a half or like take the three and a half. the same group that was willing to take six and a half on the VA

on uh Vegas came back and also took three and a half on Vegas. That’s rare

because almost always you’re going to see the opposite happen where they get the six and a half and it goes down to

three and a half and they may buy and if they don’t get to three, they’ll buy back a little bit. Have a small middle

working. You know what I mean? Ain’t a great middle, but it ain’t the worst middle either. Uh but that did not happen here. Um, also the under, the

under, the look ahead was 47 and a half. The first limit that it took, they went right to 44 and a half. Since then, it

hasn’t gotten any action. So, don’t look at it as if it’s been steamed under because it’s a three-point move. It’s

nothing could be further from the truth. It took a limit or two to move at three full points. Um, Cincinnati, Minnesota

under 47 and a half and 46 and a half was the look ahead. They came in and hit the under 43 as well. Those are what you

want to pay attention to. What has followth through? I know I’m going long. Finally, Dallas and Chicago over over

the look ahead 46 and a half to 48. Now they’re hitting 48s, 49s, 49 and a halfs and 50s over. And finally on Monday

night, Detroit plus the six and a half and six. And that’s why you’re looking at five, five and a halfs right now. So

busy in NFL already, but it’s only going to get uh more action as we approach the weekend.

I know where I stand on this. I’m curious where you stand and where some of the groups that you work with back up

quarterbacks and how much they affect the lines and what the books do with them. I find that there can be an

incredible amount of volume or an incredible amount of value if you like

one of the backup quarterbacks because I feel like sometimes the books are a little vanilla with how they price some

of these line. So, there are some backup quarterbacks that I think are legit. What are some of the groups agree with? Bro, nothing could be further from the

truth. You’re 100% on point. You’re right. They are so mispriced. See,

because and and not everybody, not every quarterback is worth the same. And even though like we we look at like a a Tom

Brady during his era as a a you know, elite level a quarterback. Okay. The the

comparison is the drop off. Not how good Tom is, but what is the difference between Tom and his backup? Like what’s

the drop off? And I think that’s where a lot of the mispricing comes because we see these stud quarterbacks, we think

they’re they’re amazing, but maybe the drop off between number one and number two isn’t that great. Where in other

teams, you may be a bad quarterback to begin with, but then the drop off is also really steep. So, we underestimate

thinking, okay, this guy sucked already, so are they really losing anything? But if the backup is just 3x worse, then

that adjustment should be even greater. And I think you you know, you you could really take advantage of that. Marco

calls it the injured player theory. You know, I’ve learned a lot working with Marco all those years. And because we

overreact, we think players are worth more to the betting line than they are, especially quarterbacks. And if you’re

not getting ahead of an injury, which almost none of us can in today’s world with social media, you’re not getting ahead of the market. I think you take

advantage of it that way like you just touched on. Wait for the market to overreact and think the player’s worth

more than he is because then it’s the perfect storm for value like you touched on. Not only are you getting more points

than you should, but now you’re getting a motivated team because, bro, we got to step up. We got our number two today.

You can’t lax, you know what I mean? We ain’t got Brady behind center to pull us through. So, everybody else levels up

their game as well. So, it’s the perfect storm to get value on a team with an injured quarterback. I love I love that

handicap. I look for it all the time. Uh yeah, I think Browning is is

serviceable. Um I I I I Yes, there’s a drop off to Burrow to to Browning. How

big of it how big of a difference? I don’t know. I think Mariota played good last year uh for Washington. Um I know

you’re on Vegas, but uh I don’t know. There’s just some of these quarterback now. Carson Wentz I’m terrified of and

probably G probably Giani because I watched him here in Indianapolis and it was one of the most most horrible

quarterbacking I’ve ever seen. Uh, so I’m you’re gonna be hardressed to get me to bet on Carson Wentz, but I’m just

mentally scarred uh from some of the throws that I that I Can I touch real quickly on Sean’s

question? Great question. Said I I I know parlays are negative EV usually, but he got Colts three and a half,

Falcons three and a half, and Cardinals two and a half. And here’s what I’m talking about. Why it’s so hard to argue

that three-leg, fourleg, five leg parlays can be profitable. Because you had to place that at that same property

at that same time. And when I look at my board right now, I could get Arizona plus two and a half. So you got a bad

number on Arizona. Again, is that one point going to matter? Probably not. But just the fact that now I could get a

better number than what you had to lock it in with defeats the purpose of beating the market and placing plus CV

bets because again that it just it’s so hard to do when you have to place them all at the same time. Maybe you could

argue a two-legg parlay, you could beat the the the get a good number at the same property, but once you get into

those four leg, five leg parlays, it’s very hard to argue that at that exact moment of time, at that exact property,

you got the best numbers on your parlay. It’s It’s tough to do. Uh let’s move to college football. Uh

the one I talked about when you were gone is this Army and North Texas game that’s just like completely flip-flopped

here. Uh what was Army minus two and a half. Now it’s North Texas. It was minus

two and a half yesterday. We talked about it. Money’s coming in. That that seems like a crazy game. Any other games that you see uh some pretty aggressive

moves? Yeah, and I want to share a nugget that Marco shared on bet on it with that and he said now with the you know college

players getting paid and NIL and all of that, the servicemies are going to start falling further and further behind.

They’re just not going to be able to pay these guys to to to like except for the Patriots, you know what I mean? that

happen to be, you know, fivestar recruits. It’s going to be hard for them to compete and get out go out there and get players over the next, you know, few

seasons. So, I I could see why the market’s disagreeing there um with the Army side. Now, real quickly, uh weekday

games, Charlotte plus four and a half all the way down to that key number of three they took. Um then Friday, they

took Tulsa plus 13, Tulsa plus 12 and a half. You touched on North Texas game 309. We bet them at plus two and a half.

Um that’s now flipped. I haven’t seen any resistance yet. Like they’re not betting the opposite side trying to

middle that. 320 Miami Ohio plus 33 and a half. Um 340 Wisconsin minus 7 and

seven and a half. That’s opposite the public. I know a lot of money opposite Wisconsin. Michigan minus one and a half

and money line bet simultaneously as well as over 44 and 44 and a half. Duke

332 minus 2 and a half. ECU East Carolina plus the 7 and a half. Last

game on the board, Hawaii plus three and a half and three. And then today they came in on um Central Florida minus 6

and a half. And that one had already moved. So they came in again and hit the Central Florida side. That’s why you’re looking at seven. And they also went

under 51 and 50 and a half in Toledo, Western Michigan.

Let’s move to baseball. Yesterday, Giani, there was a a very there was a strange game. It was the Oakland Boston

game where like all the money and all the tickets were on Boston. the line was going the complete opposite direction.

We had a we had a chat here. It was like, oh no, when all the money’s going one way and the lines going the other

way, like look out. Sure. The game went to extra innings. Uh Boston ended up uh pulling it out. But um yeah, it was it

was an interesting it was an interesting game to monitor on on how much money was on one side yet the books were saying

Lions going the other way. So what are we seeing here on Major League Baseball slate today? All right. And real quickly for Michael

Mail, I know I don’t play three team 10point teasers. I used to do three team sixpoint teasers. They used to pay plus

180. There were books that made the mistake. So check out your your book. If they’re paying you three team teasers at

six points and you get plus 180, that’s like getting a two team sixpoint teaser

at even money. So if you just won it and go through 367, you got about a five and a half percent edge on every bet. So, if

you can get a three team six-point teaser at plus 180, you got a five and a half percent edge. Don’t mess that up.

Um, looking at baseball today, it’s the uglies. Uh, athletics 963, athletics

plus 140, plus 135 even. Uh, New York Mets 952, minus 120, -25.

Anti-public on Miami, Colorado, they went under 10 and a half. It’s now at 10. And the public’s betting that one

over like they have tomorrow’s paper. Um Seattle in a in a fight for the West

laying minus 105 and finally chalky but they bet the Yankees 967 and the over at

8 and a half even money. So it’s a little MLB for you as well today.

Uh yeah, real quick. Um I I got to have you tell the story about Contender Series. So on Tuesday I said that there

was a guy and he was part of our $5 Tuesday play. You better you you better better believe we were fading that guy.

said, “There’s a guy that has tattoos and social media following. I think that’s why he’s fighting because he’s terrible.” And then he went out and he

laid a complete egg. Can you tell everyone the inside sto We were in the production meeting for

that fight. And you saw that was the one fight I didn’t even get to go on and give a pick for cuz it was like we

thought we thought that by the time that the fight goes it’ll be like minus 7800. So, you know what I mean? Because it

kept going up and we were just confused why the lines not moving up like from 200, 300, 400. Why is it not doing that?

And I think it was the look of the guy cuz even the the the fighters that were in the main were like, dude, we got to get this dude a contract. We need him on

here. He his his message was you better love this. He wanted to be rich and

famous. Okay. But then he realized he don’t want to be rich. He just wants to

be famous. Came to that conclusion.

I didn’t bet enough on that. I didn’t bet enough on that fight. He said, “Keep your money, bro. Keep

your money. Bring me my fame. That’s all I need. You can have your cash.”

Oh, man. That’s my guy. You’re following him all the way to the PFL. Oh, I can’t I can’t wait to bet against

that guy. I don’t care where he’s fighting. Uh and uh Okay. Uh I have I have a very

important question for you. This has been a topic on the show that you’re not on. How do I pronounce your first name?

Yanni. It’s really Yanni. Okay. Yanni. My initial birth certificate if you what

said Gioanis. Yannis. Because it’s really St. Giannis. So they they wrote it like Gioanis. And in school I used to

be embarrassed first day every day every year. They’d be like Joannis and they would think let’s start making fun of

me. And then I got to like little league and I begged my parents to change my name. Like please legally change my

name. Give me an American name. And the closest thing was John. I was like St. John and that’s what they put on my

birth on like redid a birth certificate. But it’s really Yanni. That’s really Yanni. Okay. Yanni. Okay. I got you. People get

confused because my legal name is Andy and they just automatically think it’s Andrew and my insurance call you that

sometimes. I call you that. My Well, my insurance company did it once and I had a claim and they were like, “You’re not Andrew Lang. We wrote

your name down wrong.” And they tried to argue because they wrote my name down wrong. So, all right. We now have offici

Yes. Blocked. Uh uh. Yes. We all We all now have confirmation. Yanni.

Yes, sir. Yanni, we got you. All right, Yanni, tell everyone what you have up on this Thursday tonight. I know it’s not the sexiest

game, but I got a 5%. Listen, if if the market if the matchup warrants it, I’m going to fire it. Again, you want to

wait for the busiest time of the weekend, hit them on Saturday and Sunday, but it warrants it. Again, you

don’t go crazy because it’s only 1% more than my 4% and we only bet a quarter of that. So the the the just real lightly

just to to put in perspective, if I have a $10,000 bankroll, I recommend my guys bet $100 on a 4 percent. They’re bet 125

on a 5%. So I’m not downplaying it, but I just don’t want you to go crazy. With that said, currently number one in NFL

and college football combined for 2025. I got my Saturday package up for college football. I got my Sunday package up for

the NFL, but we’re starting tonight with a 5% on the Dolphins and Bills game. So

uh join me and let’s do some damage. Let’s have a big couple days. So far so good. Thanks for having me, Andy Lang.

And best of luck to you, my brother. You too, Yanni. Let’s do this, brother.

Let’s have a great Thursday. Right. So, that was good. So, yes.

Listen. Hey, I’ve heard I’ve heard his name pronounced a bunch of different ways, but now we we heard it from him. I feel embarrassed that I haven’t asked

him uh before this. That’s that was the big mistake. The big mistake was just not asking him before. My god, he’s on

the show every day. What are we doing here? So, all right, let’s bring on now. I know how to pronounce Joe Reeri’s

name. Uh, Joe’s got an easy name. Is it Joe? Yes, it’s it’s Joe. Let’s Let’s

bring on Joe Reeri. Joe, happy Thursday. How are you today? Uh, what’s happening? Uh, Andy, I’m

shocked it took you that long to figure out uh VR’s real name there and how to pronounce it.

I I feel failed. That was really bad on my part. I think I just kind of got into

the Well, he never corrected me. That was the other thing. I just called him that and you know just tell me how

however you want me to pronounce it. It’s like uh how Bjon Robinson everyone called him Bejon and after like how long

in the NFL he was like by the way everyone’s pronouncing my name wrong like what’s up dude. Yeah you could have chimed in just a little

bit sooner. Hey man what’s going on? All right. Yeah. No names are secondary.

Yeah. Uh so we’re going to talk Thursday night football here. We got this Bills and Dolphins game and then we’re going to

we’re going to talk Tulsa and uh your boys Oklahoma State. Let’s start with NFL.

NFL is king. I I know what the spread is and we all know the story. Let me ask you this.

When was the last time a coach was on a big time hot seat like this and the team

just rallied around him and was like, “Nope, we’re gonna fight our tails off on the road on a short week and we’re

gonna save this guy’s job.” it kind of feels like it doesn’t really happen here. What’s your breakdown on this

game? Well, I I can tell you down here in in South Florida from the guys that I’ve talked to that cover this team, Andy, uh

they’ve been trying to do everything in their power to get rid of him uh for a while now. and for some reason he’s

still there. But that depending on what happens here tonight, uh Steven Ross,

the owner of the Miami Dolphins, there was talk of there being an ultimatum

this year with not just him, but the uh the GM Greer as well. They had a lot of

malcontent in that locker room a year ago. And namely, one of them was, you

know, Ramsay, who’s no longer there. He’s with Pittsburgh. Uh but they still have Tyreek Hill. he was the other guy

that was the big issue and they still him and Tua can’t get on the same page. So yeah, lack of leadership, guys

showing up late, uh I mean you name it, I have heard it here. And judging from

the fact that you’ve allowed not one but two teams here, one being led by Drake

Navy, other by Danny Dimes and this team has allowed them to score what wrap up

33 points in each one of those games. What is Josh Allen going to put on them

here tonight? This offense of Buffalo short week. They haven’t won in Buffalo

and Orchard Park since 2016. Uh this is either going to be extremely ugly here

or Buffalo is going to just go through the motions here and just hurry up and try and get the win and get a little

extra rest before next week because the injuries are piling up on the defensive side of the ball for them.

I I I don’t even know what to do side to I mean 50 and a half is monstrous. You

know Buffalo’s going to do their port park and Miami even get there and what do you do with double digits in in the

past? Do you like do you like laying points with this or you just say ah that’s too many points. I I I can’t get

there. Short weeks I never look at anybody but home teams anyway. Uh but I would cut

this game in half Andy. Uh I think that what’s going to happen here is the Buffalo Bills are going to do what

they’ve done to both the Jets, right, uh lesser teams. They’re going to boat race

them early at home in Orchard Park. Uh if you’ve noticed, Buffalo is all of a sudden becoming a power running team

now. They are going to run the ball down your throat. And it’s not going to be just Josh Allen tucking it and running

it. It is going to be everybody. Davis, it’s going to be Cook. It’s they have

done an amazing job and gone out of their way to make sure that they can run the ball with that offensive line and

not have to drop Josh Allen back. So the number is seven early in here. The idea

that Miami is somehow going to go toe-to-toe and try to go point for point

with Buffalo. I just don’t see it happening. They’re going to try because they can’t play keep away. That’s

impossible. So, I’m going to take Buffalo to have a double- digit lead in the first half and then use that running

game to milk the clock in the second half and get out of there without any more injuries.

I I agree with that assessment. I thought Buffalo kind of showed their cards last year towards the end. Hey, we

need to run. We We can’t get Josh Allen dropping back 50 times a game. I I drafted James Cook in my big my big

fantasy league, so I was a believer in this. So, all right, we’re looking at the first half there. Uh Tulsa Oklahoma

State. Um listen, good news is I don’t think Oklahoma State has to worry about getting beat by 66 points this week.

They are the favorite. Uh they’re facing a Tulsa team. They got this total big

total here 54 and a half. Uh I believe in your team’s offense. I don’t know if you believe in Tulsa’s offense. What’s

your take on this game? It this is awful. find, you know, just find anything else to do but watch this

game here. Uh I mean, listen, we’re watching the end of the Mike Gundy era

at Oklahoma State. Whether we like it or we don’t, it’s just run its course. Uh

and he’s been there forever. He’s been there over 20 some odd years. Uh this whole NIL situation has changed

everything. He just doesn’t have the players. Uh, and not that Tulsa does, but this is a huge big brother, little

brother situation where they’re only about an hour and 20 minutes apart these

campuses with Stillwater and Tulsa here. So, Tulsa’s actually a pretty decent

team. And I mean, Oklahoma State’s lost 10 of their last 11 games. The only win

they have had in that stretch was UT Martin uh in the opener, a 20point win,

and even that wasn’t put away right away. So yeah, I I like Tulsi. There’s

no way I can lay this many points with Oklahoma State who now is already on to their backup quarterback who struggled

last week. Obviously, everybody struggled there against Oregon. But it’s

just not the same Gundy and the same aura where oh Gundy at home in this spot

against lesser teams. It was it’s an automatic cover. Those days are long gone. It’s the beginning of the end for

Gundy and Oklahoma State. There’s only one way I would look and that is take these damn points here and do not watch

the game at all. Plus, they got Balor next week. Uh their Big 12 opener. So,

yeah, they might very well look past Tulsa here and that would be unfortunate if they lost.

I was looking at Tulsa over their team total at 21 and a half and I was like, man, you couldn’t give me 20 and a half.

You had to you had to move it a half point over there. I have not watched your guys’ defense. Trying to play

defense against Oregon is just everybody’s going to struggle except some of the the top teams. I don’t know.

21 and a half. Is your defense good enough to hold them under? Cuz I lean under at the 21 and a half. Uh you’d be surprised. I think Tulsa can

uh can hang here. I thought they did a really good job against Navy. Uh as a matter of fact, that game was close

until the second half where they uh they got a couple of extra touchdowns in the fourth quarter and pulled it away. But I

call me crazy. I mean, 42 uh 42 to 23 against uh Navy last week. They were

around that game a lot. So, I I would not be shocked if they can put more than three touchdowns on the board against

Oklahoma State. All right. And Daryl has to jump in. He’s no longer called Danny Dimes. Uh

the Colts now, we we call him Indiana Jones. I don’t know if you’ve heard this now or not. It’s it’s lowhanging fruit,

but it is kind of a fun a fun nickname here. I have not embraced it yet because it’s it’s so corny that I don’t even

know. Can we give him Can we give him three games maybe before we uh start start

anointing him? Um and just impromptu, we had a question yesterday and uh then today. Do you have any thoughts on this

Michigan game? What is it? Michigan Nebraska. I have not researched it, but we had a couple questions on that. We

didn’t get to it earlier. I don’t know if you know anything about this game. Yeah, to me it was a uh under game. That’s where I looked at it from a total

perspective here with these two uh defenses. Although, I mean, listen, Ryola has been good. You’ve got uh the

problem that I have with college football right now, Andy, and these young quarterbacks, these studs, is that

they’re millionaires now, Andy. We’ve got 18 and 19 year old college quarterbacks who are raking in seven

figures in NIL money here. And you know, if you win a game, great. If you lose the game, oh well. Uh, we’re still

millionaires here. So, it’s it’s a different dynamic now in college football. You got two young good

quarterbacks, but I think the defenses are going to ring true here. Man, I like the under with Nebraska and Michigan.

Uh, Joe, your your show is awesome uh with Pre and Art Dea. Tell us about that and tell everyone what you have up at

Wager Town. Yeah, apparently I drew the short straw there, so I got to do the show with the

press. Uh, thank God for Art. uh to keep us sane there. My goodness. In fact, the

show is up already, guys. You can check it out. The best betting show uh ever there. It’s on the YouTube page. Art has

a lot of information about this Miami Buffalo game from the Westgate perspective uh in the show. So, make

sure you guys check that out. We’ve got all the best bets uh locked and loaded in the show as well. And uh I got not

one but two Major League Baseball best bets up and ready to roll here tonight. We’ve been crushing it in the MLB. Now

is the time of year, these final two weeks, Andy, where the lines are soft. Uh the books are sleeping, and we are

cashing a whole lot of tickets with it. Joe, what’s been working for you in MLB? I always I’m always interested. Is it

sides, totals, a a certain couple teams, just a little bit of everything? I always like

lot of situational spots this time of year. There are clearly teams that are

have their tickets booked on cruises and they are ready to go. They got tea times lined up and there are those that are

still battling. A lot of first fives bullpens as far as I’m concerned not to

be trusted on any team so far this year. So if you got an edge starting pitching,

take advantage of it while you can here in the final two weeks. Joe Reeri, two MLB plays up. Go grab

those. Joe, thank you so much. Always good to hear from you. Take care. Have a great Thursday. Appreciate it, man.

All right, we got Dave Mason coming up real quick. My NFL props pack is up. We are in play tonight with an official

best bet. Uh this pack includes every play from tonight’s game all the way through Sunday, all the way through

Monday. We’ve hit 59% of our props through the first two weeks. And I could not be happier with that number. That

number is sustainable. That number is profitable. Uh we obviously don’t want to be losing, but you also don’t want to

be winning too big uh on a percentage because you know regression is coming. So I’m really happy with where we’re

sitting with props. Uh it’s a grind. It’s a grind. It’s a grind week in and week out. So 59% I would I would be

ecstatic if we could do that every week. So one price, one pack, wt.buzzal.

Let’s get the profit started tonight in this Thursday night game. You get that and you get all of our props all the way

through Monday Night Football. All right, let’s bring on Dave Mason. Uh Dave, I got several things to ask you.

Got to ask about uh where we can beat Dave Mason. But uh Yanni brought up

something interesting today and I wanted to ask you about how how you move lines or adjust lines. He was talking about

how Buffalo’s probably in a lot of money line parlays. There’s a lot of first taps. There’s a lot of teasers. When you

have a team that’s like piled on in all those different, you know, types of areas, what do you do with the overall

spread for the full game? Yeah, it’s it’s a tricky one. Um, he’s

right. I mean, I was just looking at that action earlier and this is a huge, you know, we I always tweet out the

needs on on the spread, but you know, it it gets so more much more granular that when you granular than that when you’re

talking about the teaser liability and the uh moneyline parlays and all that stuff. I mean there often there there’s

so much money on these teasers and money line parlays that often there’s more money on that than there are straight

bets on the spread andor money line. Um so

that that definitely comes in into play a lot especially with the teasers. Sometimes you’ll see like minus nine you

know plus money and stuff like that. That’s kind of combating teasers right there because you’re trying to prevent

people to tease them through two two key numbers um to get more value. Um, but

you know, a game like tonight, it’s it’s only 11 and a half, even though

everybody’s on the Bills, and that’s because not everybody’s on the Bills. The Sharps have taken the uh Dolphins. I

mean, they they hit the Dolphins at 12 and 13, I believe. So, you know, you’re

you’re playing whack-a-ole. you know, you’re you’re you’re trying to cover your exposure on the the sharps, but you

know, you’re giving more value on the public and then the moneyline parlays and the teasers. So, where you can’t

give too much value on those sharps or else they just pound you for big money and they’ll key that in in parlays. Not

not that much, but sometimes they will if you’re all off on round robins and whatnot. So, so yeah, it’s it’s like

whack-a-ole. All right, so we play beat Dave Mason. Where’s Where’s the vulnerability?

Where’s all the bets going? My guess was going to be a Bills and Packers teaser.

It seems like the most obvious play that the public will be all over. Yeah, I mean that that that’s a popular

teaser. Bucks are popular teaser. Seahawks are popular teaser. Packers, of course, tonight, like I said, what what

let me see what what percentage of teaser money is on tonight. 95% of the cash on teasers tonight is on the Bills.

99% of 99% of money line parlay is on the bill. So that just tells you, you

know, and that’s that’s a lot of volume, too. There’s so much volume on it. So yeah. Um yeah, those teasers are

something else. What else? The Sharps. Let me see what the Sharps are on. Uh Miami, like I said, 12 and 13 tonight. A

little bit of Browns plus eight. Steelers minus one a little bit there. 49ers – one and a half or better. Jags –

115 outright. Rams plus 174 outright. Falcons over I think that’s 43 and a

half. Raiders under 47 and a half. Saints under 42 and Chiefs over 44 and a

half. So that’s the sharp stuff. Um but yeah, those teasers are huge. I mean I I placed one of those teasers too this

weekend. So and speaking of teasers, I mean I don’t know if you saw but some books are offering like minus 135 on two

team sixpoint teasers now which is outrageous. We’re still at minus 110 or minus 115 depending of whether you’re

crossing um key numbers or not. So minus 135 is this it’s gross.

Oh, those of us that live in states with with the DraftKings and the FanDuels have noticed, Dave,

yeah, but you know what? If a player gets hurt, if if a player gets hurt, you might get your props refunded, though. I

mean, it’s the banana in a tail fight, man. It is smoking mirrors, you know. Give me a break.

Um, yeah. Listen, let me touch on that. You know why I can’t stand that? I I can’t stand that rule for for a bunch of

reasons, but one of them is it just gives them the the ability to just make stuff up as they go along.

Well, yeah. I mean, can we have some rules, please? Yeah. Well, you know, listen, I like

I’ve said a zillion times on on your show here, I’m more of a marketing guy, so I get it. I mean, we’ve done kind of

PR stuff like that in the past, but it we learned it bites you in the rear end

because, you know, the next, you know, you might, okay, we we we’re going to know action unders to be nice people and

everybody tweets it and all everybody’s happy for for one day, but then people want that’s not enough. They want this.

Well, my under uh it heard the point spread and this, you know what I mean? So, one person’s happy, but other people

aren’t happy that that that prop had something to do with a big quarterback goes out and next time someone gets

hurt. Well, where’s my refund? You know, there on the So, it’s better just to find years back like after COVID, we

were real friendly with stuff and after co’s like, you know what, it’s a no-win situation. Let’s just concentrate on

what we do best. If they want to have those PR big PR things on a Monday night football game, cool. But, you know what?

our players are getting a lot better juice. I mean, that’s why they can afford to do stuff like that non-stop.

It’s because they’re they’re killing you on the juice. So, you know, yeah, whatever.

Uh I mean, listen, Dave, you know how many unders I’ve lost in garbage time? I don’t get a refund.

Of course, I don’t get I don’t get a refund. The guy cashes an under in the last 20 seconds. Yeah. I mean, bigger more bigger things.

I mean, we’re all we’re all victims these days. victim mentality’s at an all-time high. We’re all, you know, it’s

like, dude, you know, that’s the way the ball bounces and and those things even out. Those things even out the end of

the year, man. You know, you you might you might have a bad beat, but for every bad beat, you’ve had a lucky win that

you shouldn’t have won. So, all that stuff evens out the end of the year. That’s what you have to that’s why I

still have fights I bet in the past that I think, you know what, I lucked out there. So, the next time I’m not going to win. I still do a little bit, but I

don’t blame the books. Oh, I’ve lost UFC fights where the guy tested positive for steroids a couple

weeks later. It was like, I knew that guy didn’t hit that hard. Um, uh, I want to move to college football. Where’s the

action this week? Where’s some of the sharp money? Uh, sharp stuff tonight. Tonight,

two-way. Rice minus two, Charlotte plus three. North Texas minus 7 and a half.

BYU -6, ECU plus 7 and a half, Arkansas – 7, Nevada plus 11, Sam, Houston State

+ 41. Too many too many totals to mention. Every other damn total has some sharp action on it. Um, liabilities,

USC, Louisiana Tech, our biggest liabilities at the moment. Highest bet count, Oklahoma by far. Then you got

Miami, Florida, Illinois, and Utah. Um, last thing before I let you go here

in NFL, have there been any teams that you have made some pretty aggressive changes to like

power rankings that to start the season and hey, even though we’re two weeks in, we’re going to adjust them pretty big or

are you guys still kind of standing where you were at the beginning of the season? Are you just saying, “Hey, the markets dictate where these lines go?”

Do do the Bengals count? Yeah, they count. Of course they count. Yeah, of course they dropped. of course,

you know, what with Joe Burrow, um, they plummeted in the power rank. I mean, KC,

you know, the season’s young. Um, but but they’re dropping. You know, it’s

they they’re dropping for the beginning of the season. Um, so they’re they’re a high-profile team that they’re their

rankings are definitely dropping and they’re still up there only two games in. They still have Mahomes under center, Andy Reid at on the sideline.

So, u, but they’re definitely going south as of now. But of course there’s teams for every team going south there’s

teams going up like like the Colts like the Packers. So a lot of lot of stock up

stock down for sure. Uh it’s been fun watching the Colts. I got to be honest. Like I’m still I’m

still I’m still nervous. I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe they are this good. Um it’s it it’s been fun.

It’s been refreshing. They got their first road game this week. But uh yeah, I’ll enjoy it while I can. I just need

to see a little bit more before I’m going all in on They’re our biggest Super Bowl winner at the moment. So, uh,

we’re rooting for him. Really? Wow. People People believed in Daniel Jones.

How about No, our biggest winner. Did I say loser or winner? They’re our biggest winner. So, if they won the Super Bowl, Yeah.

Sorry about that. Maybe I said loser, but biggest I’m using the biggest winner. So, if they won the Super Bowl

at this moment, Super Bowl is today and they won, that would be our biggest win. Wow.

Yeah. But there wasn’t a lot of pre-season action on the Colts, so but uh you know

Yeah. Yeah. I I don’t doubt that. All right. What’s Dave Mason betting this weekend? What do you like? Uh well, I did a teaser. I did one of

those um you know, square teasers that everybody does, but hell, I I can’t Sometimes you look at it, you just can’t

resist, man. Bucks. Bucks and Seahawks. I’m teasing them down six point, you know, six and a half down to half laying

on the Bucks and Seahawks laying one and a half again. minus 115 at betonline.ag

as opposed to minus 135 elsewhere. Uh for 49ers minus two and a half. I took

the Lions plus five. They’re now plus four and a half. So uh that’s what I’m on for NFL. Maybe going to add some

more. Probably hop on some more of those teasers. I don’t know, man. I usually try to stay away from those, but some of

these just look too damn good. I know. They’ve been good through the first two weeks, I guess. If any

Yeah, we’re getting killed. We We need to win some NFL money. We got killed two the first two Sundays of the season.

Somehow I I think you’re going to be okay. Yeah. This is This is where it turns around

for old bet. So, all right. Where can we find you at and tell us about Bet Online. Uh Dave Mave Mason B on Twitter. Come on

over to bedline.ag. I mentioned our great teaser odds. I mean, there’s so much action on these teasers. You really

really have to pay attention to what your book is charging you on the juice on those teasers. We offer we also open

our lines up earlier than mo just about every other book. Usually arms race between us and a very respected book in

Vegas to see who opens the odd up first for next week. And all sorts of different markets. We just we just added

to this morning uh Jimmy Kimmel’s replacement. We have Greg Gfield the

plus 400 favorite Theo Von plus 500 right behind him. They’re the two

favorites. Then down the opposite end of the spectrum, the long shots are Scott Beao at 250 to1 and Stephen Cobear at

300 to one. So poor Stephen Cobear can’t even Scott Beo has a better chance of replacing Jimmy Kimmel over Steven

Cobar. Do you have a a nun? No. Do we need one?

I I would I would think that’d be the favorite. I think this is that’s the thing with these late night shows. There

aren’t replacements waiting. This is a tough model these days. people are watching. Who do you know staying up at

at at 11:00, 11:30 to watch these shows? I think these are I think these are I

think think networks are getting thrown a lifeboat to get out of these monster contracts. It’s so expensive to make and

that’s the thing like remember way back when it was exciting. Who’s going to be next? Is it Leno? Is it? Who’s taking

over? There’s no there’s no excitement to take over these shows. I think they’re disappearing like Dustin. Yeah,

there’s Yeah, I mean Yeah, there’s just that who who else stays up that late to listen to I they’re not just not

entertaining anymore anymore. I sound like old head, but you know the Johnny Carson‘s and Letterman of yester year.

They they they they were good. These guys, you know, it’s just And who’s staying up too late? Too much competition, too much on late

at night and whatever. Watch it on YouTube the very next day. Yeah, exactly. Watch the highlights,

right? Watch highlight. Yeah. Yeah. So, all right, Dave Mason,

you can bet on Jimmy Kimmel’s next replacement. I respect it, Dave. I respect it. Uh, the the king of the

props, Dave Mason, betonline.ag. And he’s not joking about the juice when when they released those those NFL

teasers at the beginning of the season for for uh some of these u some of these

legal books. Good lord. Can’t believe it. Can’t believe it. So, uh, all right, let’s do All Around the World and then

we’re going to bring in Dan because we got to talk a little bit about Survivor on a Thursday because the Bills are a big time option here. So, let’s do a

couple let’s do three free plays here. Oh, and I’m going to break down uh some props for Thursday night football. So,

let’s do uh free plays. Uh we’ll start with the Padres’s and the Mets. Padres’s over four and a half on the team total

this morning. It was a plus money. There’s no way that stays there. Tong is pitching for the Mets. He’s been awful. 11.2 2 innings. 13 hits and 11 earned

runs in those 11.2 innings. Padres’s have gone over this total three out of the last four. This theory worked for us

yesterday. Yeah, it took extra innings, but we got there. So, let’s take a look at that one. We’re going right back to Nolissa Smith over eight and a half

points. She went under the last game. I said come back and play it again. I’m going to stick to my guns. She’s gone over in five out of the last seven and

11 out of the last 14 against the Storm. She has never had back-to-back games under this total against the Storm.

Nelissa Smith over the points. Ralph Michael Special Mariners at Royals. Yuri, yes, have a run in the first

inning. Royals 10 and0 run. Yurfy. Mariners 4-0 run on the Yurphy. 6 and

one away games. Yurfy. So, we got a lot of trends saying that yes, there’s going to be a uh a run or a run here in the

first inning. So, let’s do some Thursday night football props. These are some leans. I’m going to take a look at Josh

Allen and I’m going to take an under on Josh Allen. I’m going to take his under 271 and a half passing. Last week in a

big win, he only threw for 148 yards and they rushed for 224

yards. Uh the Dolphins have faced more rush attempts this season than any other

team. Short week defense that’s faced a ton of rush attempts. Uh I’m going to

take him uh to go under his passing yards. I just don’t see a huge passing game. Not a lot of pass attempts. I’m

going to take him under uh under half an interception. He hasn’t thrown an interception this season. Miami, no

interceptions this season. So, we get a uninterested pass defense. Taking the under on that one. Let’s do a same game

parlay plus 144. James Cook anytime touchdown score and I’m going to put

that with the Bills over 30 and a half on their team total. Cook has three TDs this season. Miami has given up 33

points in both of their games and Buffalo has scored 41 and 30 in the last two games. So I what I wanted to do is

try and get the James Cook anytime touchdown up to a better number because

odds are they’re going to be in close and James Cook is going to score. So that was at minus 170, but we’ve put the Bills team total over and we get that

thing up to plus 144. I mentioned yesterday uh Ray Davis over 24 and a

half. I do have to mention that again. Dolphins have given up 156 122 yards rushing in the first two games. defense

short notice or a short week and like I said, they faced more rush attempts. Short week when you faced as many rush

attempts as them, I just don’t think they’re going to have the juice in the second half. Ray Davis only had one carry week one, nine carries for 24

yards last week. Expect Ray Davis to have a really nice total. I might look at playing his total live at halftime.

If Buffalo’s up a couple scores, see what the number is on Ray Davis. You might be able to ladder him up to 25,

30, 40 yards. So, those are your Thursday night prop plays for tonight.

All right, let’s uh let’s bring on Dan because we got to talk a little bit about um

we got to talk Survivor because this is the first Thursday game. I think we’ve had a pretty obvious play. Now, okay,

technically it’s a divisional game on Thursday, but always worries you a little bit, but

there there is one team in this division that seems dead dead. Uh and they’re playing tonight. So, so yeah, divi

divisional games are worrisome, Andy, but um I don’t I don’t know if the worry is uh is quite there. The the the thing

is is here I’ll pull up the the odds logic live screen so we can uh we can get a

peek at Does it just say Miami stinks? Did they do they even put the points or it just says Miami stinks?

Yeah, it it doesn’t even say it just says uh Miami is awful. Um no, 11 and a half. Uh this thing actually we have

seen a little bit of buyback on Miami surprisingly. I I don’t get it. But also, this is a monster number. Um,

you’re just looking this week like what other ones jump off the board at you for Survivor. The number one Survivor play

this week is going to be this one right here. It’s going to be New Orleans against Seattle. That’s that’s going to be the one where everyone’s taking

Seattle a thousand%. Because because when else do you take Seattle? It’s getting to fade New

Orleans. And here’s the worry for me is uh yeah, Spencer Rattler on the road. Is

he probably going to beat the Seahawks? No, but one of these weeks the the chaos, holy [ __ ] how did they beat them

game could come and would it be the craziest thing in the world for the holy [ __ ] oh my god, I can’t believe they lost game to be a New Orleans Saints

game. It’s going to be a New Orleans Saints game, it’s going to be a Panthers game or um you know, it’s going to be a

Jaguars game, you know. Okay. And and I was even mulling around, Andy, like, do

we just go and put Buffalo in now and move on with the week or you scroll down further here, Andy? I

kind of want to use Buffalo next week, they play New Orleans next week. You know what I mean? That’s the things. So, we’re looking to

next week and next week it’s hard. You got Seahawks, Cardinals. That’s tough. Viking Steelers, that’s going to be

tough. Unless WZ looks That’s overseas. That’s Yeah. Overseas overseas game. Yeah,

Commanders, Falcons, that one’s tough. Now, Browns at Lions, uh, that could be the the monumental number one.

Panthers, Patriots, that could be tough. Chargers, Giants, maybe the Chargers, but they’re on the road. Eagles, Bucks,

I think that one is tough. Titans, Texans, Colts, Rams, Jags, 49, Ravens, Chiefs, Bears, Ra, the These are all

tough games next week. I think I want to save my Buffalo for next week. I think Buffalo is is is the obvious pick. So,

let’s go through the nominees for this week. I have Colts at Titans road game,

divisional game, but man, I don’t know. It’s also the first road game for this Colts. I mean,

again, you’re you’re not taking them on the spread, but to be honest with you, you know, over a field goal for

Tennessee with the team that has now been anointed, I’m sorry, blocked, but

uh, you know, I’m looking to fade the Colts. I’ll probably fade the Colts every week until I get to say, “I told you so.” Um, so you know, I if it if

they had played a road game already, Andy, probably, you know what I mean? But the fact that this is their first

road game after being anointed as, you know, Daniel Jones has found his landing

spot. Um, that worries me a little bit. Uh, move on to Jets at Buccaneers.

Buccaneers facing Tyrod Taylor. And then you get this Buccaneers offensive line that they’re down to they’re down three.

It’s tough. It’s It’s really tough. You could get sneaky. Yeah, go ahead.

I I was going to say maybe you’re thinking the same thing like do I just risk my entire entry and go Jags? Like I

think Houston is really bad. I think their defense has been getting by and this whole entire team has been

getting by on CJ Strad’s rookie year for two seasons now, man. So did you watch Jacksonville blow it

against Jake Browning? Do we I mean that that one’s gross.

That one gross. Um the Raiders could be pretty terrible, but I I think Mariota is a little bit

underrated. So, there’s that one. I got to be honest, I’m staring at this Falcons Panthers game. That Panthers

team is horrific. Robinson and Alier could run for 250 yards. There’s there’s a chance that

they have really bad against the run. 3839 minutes of possession against that Panthers

team. Panthers are 0 and2. And even though that was a one-sore game last week, they needed an on-size kick and a

last second score. And here’s my thing, D. I’ve used the Cardinals and the Cowboys, so I’ve snuck by. Boy, if I

could use the Falcons and I could go into week four knowing I’ve only used the Cardinals, the Cowboys, and the Falcons. I’m feeling pretty damn good. I

don’t trust the Seahawks. I think you I think you’ve won me over. I think I’m going to hold on to Buffalo. Um, I don’t think I’m going to burn it

tonight. Uh, I think you need them next week. I think you need them next week. We’ll finalize We’ll finalize our picks

tomorrow when we do the official I will survive picks. But I’m I’m heavily leaning this Atlanta

game or I just risk it all and go Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville wins

outright this week. One and a half point favorite. Basically a pick them game right there. Um, I’m between those two,

Andy. I mean that that would be the oh my god I have every team that I could possibly want left if I get Jacksonville

home. So I I I get Could you throw Chiefs at the

Giants? Are the Chiefs gonna go 0 and three? The crazy thing is I think this is the Chiefs get right spot, but Giants, it’s

a really if you if you back the Giants, even if you take Giants against the spread, like you’re really buying the

Giants as high as you possibly can buy him coming off a near overtime win against the Cowboys uh

against a horrific defense. Chiefs. Yeah, exactly. And two tough games.

This is Chiefs. Do they win this game or do they go under their season win total and maybe not make the playoffs if they

lose this game? And and honestly, I listened to a podcast where they’re making the case that Travis Kelce has literally cost

them two games and a wide receiver. He has single-handedly like cost them

and it’s like he’s not going to be this bad all season. So, I don’t know. We’ll we’ll make our final we’ll make our

final decision, but I think we’re both going to hang on to the Bills. Yeah, I’m not I’m not going to use the Bills

tonight. I’m keeping that bullet in the chamber. Maybe we’ll kick ourselves, but uh next week’s like a slam dunk. Easy

Bills. Yeah, cuz here here’s the thing. Like, let’s say we use the Bills next week, but then we lose next Let’s say we use

the Bills this week, but we lose next week because we already used them. We’re in the same Doesn’t matter. We lost. Yeah, exactly. It

doesn’t matter. So, all right. All right. Chad says, “Andy determined apparently

to be wrong about Seattle for all season. I don’t know what my strong stance was

in Seattle, but Chad, that is funny. Uh, that that is funny. I listen, I just

when every how what you think 50% of the the tickets are going to be on Seattle

this week. Could we reach 50%. I mean, for Survivor, that’s going to be the pick of the week. That’s

Yeah. People are laying the spread, you know, but but that’s going to be the Survivor pick.

Okay. All right. All right. Well, thank you so much for joining us. Dan and I will get you all the Survivor picks tomorrow, guys. Tomorrow’s football

Friday. Johnny is coming in strong with uh with National Football League and College Football Steam right before

Teddy Covers is going to be here. Marco is going to be here. Kelly in Vegas is going to be here talking the uh Westgate

Super Contest. Dan and I will make our official Survivor picks. We’re going to get you locked and loaded. So, tomorrow is a huge, huge show every Friday. It is

the best football show to get you ready for the weekend. So, make sure you’re joining us. It’s a great show today,

guys. Thank you so much live chat. You guys killed it as always. Please hit the like button. It really helps us out.

Helps the algorithm out. We had a little polarizing talk earlier about the the Bengals and the Vikings. Post in the

comments section if you’re rolling with the Bengals and Vikings. Two teams starting backup quarterbacks already in

week two. Um so we’ll we’ll talk about that game a little bit tomorrow and see where the line ends up. Uh thank you to

everybody. Have a great day. Good luck on your bets tonight. NFL prop pack is up. The first official play for clients

go tonight. wt.busal. Good luck on your plays. We’ll see you tomorrow. Take care.

free NFL picks – Urban City Podcast Group

WagerTalk Today: Free Sports Picks, NFL TNF Dolphins vs Bills Predictions, and CFB Week 3 Bets

WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | NFL TNF Dolphins vs Bills Predictions | CFB Week 3 Bets | 9/18