Betting Trends – Urban City Podcast Group

WagerTalk Today | Free Sports Picks | NFL Week 6 Predictions | MLB & CFB Picks | 10/7/25

Urban City Podcast Group — Tue, 07 Oct 2025 14:08:16 +0000

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Major Takeaways

NFL Week 6 Trends: Philadelphia and Kansas City look poised to cover, while overs in high-powered matchups remain the best value on the board.
MLB Momentum Plays: Toronto and Seattle lead the betting chatter thanks to hot bats and reliable bullpens.
College Football Upsets: Vanderbilt and Illinois show value as underdogs, proving smart money doesn’t always ride with the big names.

WagerTalk Today: NFL Week 6 Predictions, MLB Playoff Picks, and College Football Insights for Smart Bettors

When it comes to sports betting, the Urban City audience doesn’t play around, and neither does WagerTalk Today. The October 7 2025 episode breaks down the week’s hottest betting opportunities across the NFL, MLB playoffs, and college football. Whether you’re a weekend bettor, a fantasy football junkie, or a stats driven strategist, this show gives you the insight, trends, and confidence to make smarter plays this week.

This WagerTalk Today episode opens strong with NFL Week 6 predictions. The hosts dissect every major matchup from the Philadelphia Eagles’ push for dominance to Kansas City’s shootout potential, highlighting where the betting value truly lies. They explore the importance of timing your bets, tracking injury updates, and understanding why certain lines move faster than others. If you’ve ever wondered when to take the spread versus the over or under, this segment will feel like a masterclass in football betting strategy.

On the baseball front, the panel dives into MLB playoff picks with clear eyed analysis. The postseason is heating up, and momentum is everything. Toronto’s offense has been a fireworks show lately, and Seattle’s bullpen is becoming the story of the playoffs. The show’s MLB analysts share which teams are trending up, who’s overvalued by the sportsbooks, and where sharp bettors are putting their money. They don’t sugarcoat, they tell it like it is, mixing stats, emotion, and experience into every take.

Then comes college football, and this week it’s all about hidden value. The WagerTalk Today crew takes a deep look at matchups that casual bettors might overlook, like Vanderbilt quietly covering spreads against bigger programs or Illinois proving it can dominate at home. If you follow NCAA football, this segment gives you the inside edge on how to spot upset potential, analyze team depth, and recognize when public money is misleading the lines.

Throughout the episode, listeners get the perfect blend of entertainment and education. It’s not just about picks, it’s about perspective. The hosts explain how to manage bankroll, evaluate stats, and bet responsibly while still enjoying the thrill of the game. They break down how professional bettors think differently than fans, and how staying disciplined separates winners from wishful thinkers.

What makes WagerTalk Today stand out for Urban City Podcast listeners is its realness. The tone is direct, humorous, and built for people who love sports but don’t have time for fluff. You’ll get expert predictions, data driven trends, and a few bold calls that’ll make you lean forward in your seat. From NFL Week 6 line shifts to MLB bullpen matchups and Saturday’s college football spreads, this podcast episode has everything a serious bettor needs to stay ahead.

If you’re ready to bet smarter, not harder, WagerTalk Today is your go to listen this week. Tune in to get the latest NFL betting trends, MLB playoff insights, and college football predictions that actually make sense. Urban City Podcast continues to bring you the most trusted voices in sports media, connecting the passion of the game with the precision of analytics.

NFL Week 2 Sharp Picks & Public Bets: Expert Betting Advice from Vegas Insiders

Urban City Podcast Group — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 19:05:11 +0000

Major Takeaways:

Sharp vs. Public Disagreement: Experts identify the Broncos vs. Colts game as a major split, with the public heavily backing the Broncos while sharp money is coming in on the Colts.
Books’ Biggest Needs: According to SuperBook’s John Murray, the books need the Titans, Bears, Seahawks, and Panthers to cover their spreads to balance the heavy public money on their opponents.
Top Prop Bet: James Conner’s rushing yards over is a top sharp play, leveraging the Panthers’ historically poor run defense that was exploited in Week 1

What’s going on everyone? It’s Wager Talk last call. I am so excited that we’ve got week two underway and all the

numbers, everything you need to know. It’s all right here on Wager Talk stack show as always today as we’ve got Yanni

the Greek live from Las Vegas taking you behind the counter telling you everything his sharp groups are on.

Carmine also gonna break things down for us. John Murray, Superbook, you know him, you love him. He’s telling us the

needs on the book because if you want to be on the winning side, we always know the book tends to win more than we do.

And then Press, he’s got his show at 1:00 when you can watch Press go live and he could talk about all the

different games on this slate that he’s watching and you can watch him have a meltdown. He’ll talk about the show, he’ll tell you what action he’s on,

stacked and loaded, ready to go. I’ve got some prop edges as well. Let’s start though with the man, Yanni the Greek.

Yanni, happy week two. Good morning. Good morning. Busy morning. Busy morning as always. How was UFC last

night by the way? How’d you Good. I had a good I turned a profit in UFC. Lost in boxing with Canelo. I I hit

the undercard bet but lost my Canelo bet. And uh you know what’s crazy?

I It’s exactly how I expected it to go with the scorecards in his favor. If

only one more round was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw even though he really lost that fight.

Like it was that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo.

Like if he doesn’t get finished, I didn’t think they were going to give Crawford the decision. It came very close to that happening. So that was

wild. But uh overall good. It’s been a good month. Uh still number one in college football, number one college

football combined. So, let’s just keep doing damage. Not all that much coming in early. Usually, I have first quarter

bets by now, first half bets by now. Um, some team totals. I have player props.

Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. I don’t know. Week two. They’re there. It’s slow. It’s been sides and totals so far and a lot

of baseball this morning. So, I’m thinking it’s going to get busy over the last hour. Oh, okay. So, if we don’t have any of

these smaller markets like first quarter bets and whatnot, where have you seen the most action come in on for sides?

Oh, that that’s pretty easy. Um, here are the biggest sides right now. Uh, the

latest is the Cowboys. Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys. Nothing but Cowboy money. Jets,

believe it or not. Um, that’s why that line’s now through that touchdown. The Jets are one of those dogs that are

getting a lot of love early. And who else? Who else? Who? Oh, 49ers. Even

though um that line’s dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Um uh the

Saints, forgive me, getting all those points because of KD, because of Perie. Um the public doesn’t mind. They’re

still coming in with San Francisco today. And then um Arizona. Arizona is

going to be big risk for the books later because there’s going to be a ton of straight bets, a ton of moneyline

parlays, and a ton of teasers all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And

um yeah, that’s pretty much it. I mean, again, um good spread out action, but

those are the ones attracting the most money so far. Dallas, um

49ers, and I have to say the Arizona Cardinals. biggest risk for the book so

far. The big game of the day is the Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most

action come in on for that really short one and a half point spread? Exactly. And it’s kind of flipped back

and forth staying around that one. This is a great matchup to be a book maker in

because there’s really little risk. They’re booking good two-way action. Even like with parlays and teasers,

you’re getting good two-way action. So, not much risk at all for the books. Um,

I actually made the Eagles a favorite in the game. I made my total about 45, 45

and a half. Um, so I don’t think I’m going to be able to get down. It’s right around where that number is. I know all

the excitement again is on that Super Bowl rematch. U, but so far what I can tell you is good split two-way action

from the recreational bers and nothing from the Wise guys except they got out ahead on the over. They went over 46 and

a half when that total opened. But pay attention to the um lodge odds logic screen and see if there’s takeback on

that one because again that’s a high-profile standalone more or less late afternoon game that’s going to get

a lot of over money from the recreational bers. I actually just saw my Ravens line move

to 12 and a half spread on the board this week. Yeah. And and here’s the thing. We bet

the Browns earlier in the week at plus Don’t tell me that, Yanni. Yeah. Yeah. at plus 12 and and that line

dropped. Um earlier it was like at my sharper shops I’m even seeing 13 13 and

a half but it was down to like 11 and a half Ariel because we took the points with with um the Browns but since then

they came back with the Ravens and again a lot of that has to do with late injury information that you know the the the

official injury reports don’t come out till later in the week. So, a lot of times betting synders trying to get out

ahead of that information and as it changes, they’re not afraid to get offer on a game. Um, and it looks like that’s

what’s happening. Even though early Brown short money, you’re starting to see that Baltimore sharp money come in

because the public’s not really getting involved in that game. It’s mostly being teased. They’re teasing the Ravens down

um to where, you know, they’ve got to win by one score more or less to cover that teaser. That’s where I’m seeing most of the betting action from the

public um on that game. And they’re betting it over, blindly over. I’m talking eight, nine out of every 10 bets

has been on the over in the Ravens and Browns. Bill wants to know if you’ve got a

teaser for today. Teaser right now here. I would definitely tease the New England Patriots. Um, win or lose, that’s a plus

CV sign. You’re getting them up through three, through six, through seven, and you’re seeing a total that open 45 and a

half. Get that bet down to 43 and a half. So, that’s exactly what you want. You want a a game that’s expected to

have low points. The lower the scoring, the more each point is worth. That’s what you want for your teasers. The only

problem is finding another leg to tie him into. And right now, I would have to go with Tampa on Monday night. Another

perfect setup where the total open 46 and a half. Now, we’re looking at 42 and a half. So, you can’t get a better

teaser than that. Like, that’s a perfect plus CB teaser right now where you tie in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay.

The only thing you got to hope for is that that um Houston line don’t go to three tomorrow. That’s the problem. I’m

seeing two and a halfs minus 12.0. So if it goes to three, it’s no longer a wangable teaser. It’s no longer

advantageous. You’re better off just taking the plus three. That’s the problem. I’m not seeing any other leg

you could really tease today. And they’ve done a really good job of protecting themselves from them teasers

because again, those are very advantageous. You know, you have an edge on it. As long as you’re not laying more than 125 on a six-point teaser, you

could print money. really really got me mad this year and they’re blocking them. So, I live in New York and I use all the

books the like the I use all the legal books here and every year I use my

teasers with DraftK. I place my teasers with DraftKings because they’ve been minus 120. Since DraftKings came to New

York, FanDuel was minus 136. MGM was minus 130. DraftKings have the best number at minus 120. This season, they

have now moved it to minus 136. Yeah, because here’s why. Let me explain to you exactly why. It’s the same reason

on the if you walk through the casino floor on the floor the blackjack is now six to five. It’s no longer three to

two. That little switch of one rule where you no longer pay 3 to2 you’re playing six to five. Most betterers

don’t even acknowledge that. Don’t even understand that. But that change in rule made it to where someone like me can no

longer beat that game where I’m I could beat a game a fair game of blackjack but switching it from three to two to six to

five my edge is gone in teasers by going to 130 the sixpoint teaser is no longer

beatable at 120 you had a 2% edge all you had to do is tease through three

three six and seven and you had a 2% edge your break even was around 74%. if

you’re able to do that, you’re going to hit around 76%. So, they knew you had a 2% edge if you were teasing the right

sides. Well, most weren’t teasing the right numbers. So, DraftKings didn’t care. They had so much recreational

bets, they could keep it at 120 and attract all that teaser action. Eventually, sharp bers took advantage of

that. And that’s why it’s no longer available. If you’re laying 130 on a six-point teaser, you’re now taking the

worst of it. you’re hoping to be the product of good luck because it’s a negative EV bet. There’s negative

expectations on your bet there. Like that’s the math. That’s not my opinion. That’s just how the math plays out.

Uh teaser question. Do you have to play a favorite and an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?

My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet two underdogs. It really doesn’t matter. Um just don’t tease

totals. That’s it. And don’t tease across zero. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don’t go through those

zeros. We don’t go through those zeros. Uh Marley saying, “Hi, Yanni, by the way.” Good morning. Um any Steelers Seahawk advice?

I I like the dog there. I like Seattle. Um listen, the Jets were able to score

on the Steelers. The Steelers got, you know, the that field goal in the end. They got the win, but at the end of the

day, that you’re the Jets are able to move the ball like that on you. I don’t think Seattle, whose offense didn’t look

great, is going to have all that many problems. And defensively, defensively, what I saw out of Seattle last week, all

those turnovers, fumbles, interceptions, and they still limited the offense of

the opposition. I think the Steelers are going to have trouble scoring on Seattle. Um, I like the Seahawks. I I

think that three is a gift. Um, yeah, I like Seattle there, but I’m seeing Shawn Money coming in. They’re pushing that

Steeler from three to juice. I don’t like seeing that. I would have liked to see that two and a half this morning.

So, but I like the Seattle side. I liked a question that the chat also had and I don’t know where it is, but

someone asked, “Is there a side that the public and the Sharps are disagreeing

on?” I’ll tell you, Adam.

Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to go Broncos Colts. Um because I’m seeing a lot of one-sided public money

coming in on the Broncos. And again, in the afternoon, there’s not all that many games. Um, that’s Broncos, Broncos,

Broncos. I’m seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays, and uh sharps on the the Colts side. So, that’s definitely

one where it’s sharps on one side, public on the other. Um, yeah, that that’s one for sure that sticks out.

Speaking of that game, there’s going to be a lot of overreactions in week two. We know the public loves to overreact.

Miami looked like dog crap last week. The Colts, they looked great. even though I don’t feel like people really

believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to? Whether it’s for better or for worse, who should we not

overreact to this week, Yanni? I think the Lions. Uh, you know, all the the just how how bad they look. Lost the

offensive coordinator, lost the defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal. They beat the Lions

in game one. They come back, they win on Thursday night against a Washington team, you know, that coming off a great

season. Um, so Detroit’s kind of like that forgotten team right now. I think they win by at least 10 today.

I’m all over. Yeah, they’re my survivor pick this week for a lot of spots. I I picked them in my

pickup pool. I don’t normally love to lay close to a touchdown. The Lions matchup, I don’t believe that the Bears

run D was as good as it was last week in week one. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, they aren’t as good and dynamic and

versatile as the backfield for the Lions. The Lions should be able to run clock, run all over the Bears D and

cover the spread. Yeah, I I think so. And and also like the the Saints, again, I I I don’t

understand why how you could have these players out for San Francisco and yet

all the money is on San Francisco. Again, I know we usually overreact that players are worth more to the line than

they truly are. Um, but in this spot it’s like New Orleans was all all over

all already a team betters were looking to fade. They lost in week one to Arizona. Now they’re playing a San

Francisco team and like they’re fading them again. I think that’s a dangerous spot right there. Be careful with San

Francisco on the road on especially and uh players key players out. That’s one

that I keep seeing bet and uh seeing the over being bet by the public as well. Um

again, but the Sharks bet that under they’re usually going to bet the injured U matchups under. They went under 44 and

a half all the way to under 42. That’s why you’re looking at 41 right now. And real quickly, pay attention to that

because of the look aheads. So, if you’re looking at your odds logic screen or at the very least the free um wager

talk free odds and you’ll click, make sure you look at the date of where the line opened because the look aheads are

from like before last week’s games. some of them were or during last week’s games and those limits are very small. So,

they’re able to, you know, take some sharp action, but the limits are low off those first numbers. So, look at the

date from Monday on and then see what actually was adjusted because a lot of

them look like big line movements, but off of that look ahead, there’s not much movement at all. It’s just because from

the look ahead to where they officially opened for the week, there was a big gap

because of the overreaction like you touched on. Nick from New York City wants to know, “What are the most public totals for the

books that they need today?” Oh, yeah. That’s easy. There’s It’s going to be on the overs, that’s for

sure. So, start with over Jaguars Bengals,

over Giants, Cowboys, over Bills Jets.

Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most. Like it’s not even close. Like 90 plus% of the tickets and

the bets are on the overs in all four of those games. Yeah, a lot of unders in week one. We’ve

got prime time as well. So, we’ve got one game tonight between the Falcons and the Vikings. And then we’ve got two

Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see coming in there? Yeah, you’re seeing that that um Atlanta money

continue to come in and I’m interested to see if that land that scares me a little. I like them.

It’s down to that three now. I’m surprised. I was surprised that they were at three and you could even get him

at now plus three at even money because you know they got to juice the three. I’m like is it going to go to three minus 110 2 and a half? Like there’s a

lot of love on the Atlanta side. Um and the o under there from Sharf but the

public’s betting it over. And then tomorrow on Monday night, it’s the Chargers. Everybody’s in love with the

Chargers now after week one. Um, and playing here against Las Vegas. You

know, it’s a big Monday night game for the Raiders. Be careful there. It’s above that key number now of three. But

a lot of uh parlays and uh teasers that are going to be live from Sunday are

definitely going to be on the Chargers Monday night. Interested to see if that line continues to climb as well. But I

haven’t seen sharp money on those. The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers Texans immediately when that

line opened and they’ve just continued to bet that one under. That doesn’t surprise me. Uh Survivor

picks for today. Who would you do for Survivor? Well, obviously, you know, everybody’s

going to look at Baltimore if they haven’t played him. You got a double digit favorite. But there there’s no fun

in that. Uh who would I go with real quickly? I think I would take Buffalo. I

think I would take Buffalo. I don’t Buffalo’s not losing to the Jets. I I think it’s a decent spot to take Buffalo

in. Yeah, go with Buffalo. Buffalo.

I know that props aren’t as much of your thing as mine, but did did the groups

come in on any props today? No, that’s what I keep refreshing and I

they they will. I just haven’t gotten any. I haven’t gotten any yet. Interesting. Is there a reason that they

wait because they’re trying to wait for the unders? I think so. Again, it’s it’s early still in the season. Um,

but here’s what I noticed and I know that you can say and maybe listen, there

are some times where a prop will go from like I’ll give an example. Travis Kelsey

this week was 53 and a half went down to 49 and a half. At that point, I would say like I took under 53 and a half

early this week and I said, “Well, now it’s 49 and a half. So wait to see if it gets bet over and then you could go and

take the under again. But a lot of the times when I’m on the right side of that number, it drops and doesn’t bounce

back. So I don’t know sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders.

Like you’ve got to bet those unders early. I’ve seen so many numbers drop five 10 yards throughout the span of a

week and you’ll never get that good number back. I always tell bers it’s hard enough to

beat the market. Don’t try to play psychic on when you’re going to beat it. Like when you have a bet, fire, fire. I

I if you’re right more than you’re wrong, long term, you’re going to get closing line value. Don’t worry about it

on individual bets. It’s kind of like don’t overreact on any individual result, any one bet. The same thing with

closing line value. Like if the line moves against you, that’s okay. As long as in the majority of times it’s moving

in your favor, you’re getting better number by getting out early. continue to get out early. If that’s not happening

to you, then you got to revisit the thesis. But if if you’re betting early

and more times than not, you’re getting closing line value. Keep doing what you’re doing. You’re only going to get

more and more of it because you’re doing the right thing. If if you’re not, then you got to revisit it. But otherwise,

don’t worry about the time it goes against you. Because even with me, with the groups that I work with, it happens. Look, it happened with the Browns. I

took we took 12 and now I could get 13 today. So, I could get a better number today than what we betted at. That’s

going to happen. But as long as, you know, seven out of ten times we’re getting the best of the number, I could live with that.

Yanni, is Miami a good team in Survivor this week? Oh,

Miami. What is against the Patriots? No. I I I guess if you’re you want to take a

shot and roll the dice, that’s too much of a coin flip game. I think it’s too early in the season to roll the dice like that. like in week two to go.

You always talk about regressing to the mean, right? Miami is not as bad as they looked last week.

No, no, no. But here’s the problem. Here’s the problem. That it’s the NFL

season and it’s sure, Ariel, and we have those outliers. If it was baseball, I would say 100% Miami is going to regress

or progress towards the mean. There’s enough time. But in football, sometimes there’s not enough time. We have those

outliers where on paper a team’s so much better or worse than their record, but they just never have enough time to

become that team they’re capable of being. In baseball, you have 162 games. That’s why before the season started, I

could tell you maybe one team’s going to win 60 games. The first place teams are going to win between 57 and 59, maybe 55

and 59. Why? Because we have a history of 50 plus years of them playing 162

games. And that’s what happens. No one’s going to win 70% of their games, but in football sometimes that happens. Not

enough time to progress and regress. There are those outliers. So, be cautious with that uh quick turnaround

expecting the the bias to to flip back the other way. But yeah, I don’t have to take Miami. I’m cheering them in. I

don’t have a dog in the fight. Oh, we I love it. I love to hear all these sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube page over at

Wager Talk, you can scroll back and see everything Yanni just gave out. I see all your questions in the chat. Uh Yanni

talked about pretty much all those games, so make sure to take a look there. Uh lastly, I guess you said you

had a lot of MLB coming in, so anything for the guys that want to take advantage of a market that maybe is being ignored

today? Yeah, real quickly. 952 Pittsburgh and under eight and a half. 958 under eight

and a half Colorado San Diego. 960 under eight Yankees Boston 962 under eight and

a half Baltimore Toronto. Multiple groups blasted that one. 966 under eight LA and Seattle Atlanta plus 125 KC plus

145 Miami plus 125 dog on Sundays that time of the year for

baseball whether you follow or fade good luck today join us in the steam room kicks off in about 30 minutes we’ll go

through every NFL game and you’ll get those teasers about 15 minutes before kickoff as well

Yanni the Greek he’s always over here giving us these winners thanks so much Yanni thanks Ariel

coming up now we are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This time he’s

behind the counter. He is my very good friend, best friend of Kelly in Vegas, co-host of Kelly and Murray, but more

importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies. John Murray joining

the show. Hi, John. Ariel, best friend of Kelly in Vegas. I

don’t know about my best friend is my pug, Mario. So, come on. Come on. I thought that it was going to be a

raging endorsement to be Kelly in Vegas. So, how are how are you doing today? You

ready for the Ravens? I know they let you down last week. I I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember this?

The book needed Bills big time. And then I slid into your DMs after the game and

said, “Are you at least happy for me?” And you said no. One word answer. Very disappointing.

Football’s a selfish sport. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Okay. I’m not a happy person. Football season

makes me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice of you though. You’re a really great friend, JM. You love to

just harass us when we’re down. Keep kicking us. No, no, that was that was a big game for us. I won’t be rooting against you

today, though. I will I will be rooting for I’m going to root for the Ravens today for you.

Thank you. Thank you, John, so much. I know that week two is filled with overreactions. Uh but I know that my

personal group chat loves to know the needs for the Super Bowl this week. What are they?

Uh definitely. I’d say early in the morning we’re going to need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the

morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and a half point dog right now against the Rams. I

mentioned the Bears. We’re going to need Seattle. So Pittsburgh off their win against the Jets is a popular side.

We’ll need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy. Uh looks like we’re going to

need Carolina. That doesn’t sound like fun. That sounds fun. Carolina at Arizona. Think about think

about the NFL being on this side of the counter is you gota you’re basically going to bring for the same teams every week. I think this year it’s going to be

a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans, uh maybe Tennessee. Although I actually

thought that Cam Ward looked pretty good last Sunday to be honest with you going on the road against that Denver defense.

His receivers did him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right between the hands and them dropping the ball.

So, I don’t think Cam Ward’s going to be that bad, but I do think we’re going to need the Titans a lot. We need him today.

I know my group chat’s going to love to hear that the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are going to be the teams that they have to bet

today. It’s setting Who’s in that group chat, Ariel? Who’s in that group chat? Kelly, I

uh this group chat one of 80,000. Uh Chris Thirsten. I love Chris. I love

Buckeye Joe. Okay, I know who that is. I know. Buckeye Joe. Um I think that’s it. Everyone else kind

of has been eliminated from our lives. The chat bigger, but every year it seems like we dwindle.

Everybody else is off the hook. Off the hook. Everyone else off. That’s good. That’s good.

How about totals? Any totals? Uh, let me see. I’m sure we’ll we’ll probably need the under in the uh Yeah,

we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas City game. Obviously, that’s the big game in the

afternoon. Looks like we’ll want under in your game. want the under in

Baltimore cle Baltimore Cleveland game and the under in the Buffalo game. Buffalo and the New York Jets. We got

some money on the over in that one as well. We’ll be rooting for Oh, here’s one where we actually need the over. You

ready for this? We need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is all the way down to 49ers minus three. 49ers

obviously have some key injuries on offense. I mentioned the Saints. Spencer Rattler

is their quarterback for whatever reason and we will be needing them to go over.

Total right now is 40 and a half. That actually makes a lot of sense that that game would need to go over.

Does make sense. Yes. How did the books do in week one overall, JM? So, we had a great morning. We did great

in the morning games and then we lost every afternoon game last week. It was It reminded me a lot of like every

weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games were really bad for us. We really needed uh Houston against the

Rams. That was a really bad game for us. We lost the 49er game. We lost the Packer game and then all the moneyline

parlays and teasers went to Denver and they won. So, we lost every game in the afternoon. Luckily, and I’m not saying

this I’m not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo winning did bail us out.

Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail us out. Saying that to people, I will never understand why John

Harbaugh punted on fourth and three. I I I talked about this with Kelly. I think

I think one of the biggest things that doesn’t get talked about enough in the NFL is it’s not black and white like oh

should you go for it on fourth and three. It’s who’s your quarterback who’s the other team’s quarterback. If your

quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team’s quarterback is Josh Allen. Yeah. You need to go for it on fourth

and three. You don’t cramping. Yeah. You don’t Well, you don’t punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay. You’re

just you’re just saying we’re going to lose. If the other team’s quarterback was Russell Wilson, well, then maybe you

would punt the ball back, right? So, I think I think that that doesn’t get talked about enough when people are evaluating those fourth down situations.

But, I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it was very good for us. I’m sorry.

Hey, listen. I’m going to overreact and say the Ravens are dead to me until further notice.

Week two overreactions though. Where have you seen the public overreact?

Uh, let’s see. the public. I mean, the public is very heavily on the Rams. Uh, I mentioned that game. And then there’s

been a there’s a lot of money actually on New England this week. So, New England is a very popular side.

New England did lose last week to the Raiders, but they at least looked like a competent operation,

unlike their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who Well, that’s where I think people could be overreacting, though, that I don’t

think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week. I usually expect Miami to be a decent

team until two tongue of Viola gets injured, which he will, right? And then and then after that, the wheels will

come off for that that organization, but as long as two is in there, I don’t expect them to be to be terrible. I I

don’t think so. Uh the other team that’s really the most heavily bet team of the

day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don’t have as much money on that game. It’s more tickets, but so it’s not as

big of a need as some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the

points, Dallas moneyline is in every parlay under the sun today. I just made

a Russell Wilson joke. So apparently I agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible last week against

the Commanders, the football team. I I don’t blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably should have

beat the Eagles in week one. They get the Giants today. We’ll see. Those Giants. Uh, anything in the

futures market stand out after week one? Yeah. You know, they’re starting to bet.

They’re starting to bet on Green Bay, which I get. You know, Green Bay, uh, I

I look, I like Detroit last week. I think we talked about that when I was on your show. And we had a lot of guys I

respect on Detroit. That line actually closed Green Bay minus one. And that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay handle

Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe Green Bay maybe they’re

not that good. Well, they are that good, especially on defense. Uh Green Bay, I don’t know what there’s nothing you can

say that isn’t positive about them right now. As long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy. Micah Parsons is just getting his legs

underneath him. He’s not even at full speed yet. Once he gets I think the only not nice thing I could say about Green Bay is that everybody’s

on Green Bay. Yeah, but that’s true. But they were on Thursday and you know we did not do well

on the game Thursday. Every the public bet Green Bay for sure in that game and and they won it easily. So what what can

you say? The public isn’t always wrong. The public well hey look we uh the the

public was all over Terrence Bud Crawford last night here at Allegian Stadium and he won very decisively. Very

impressive. The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely

not. John Murray coming over to see us from the Westgate. I’ve got my pup. You want

to say hi to John? You want to say hi to John? I do want to say John J wants to say hi to you. She

really is mad that we’re just sitting here and not outside playing in this beautiful weather. Uh I guess final

question. Prime time games, two games tomorrow, one game tonight. What do you see in prime time?

Well, there’s there’s a lot of action on the two games tomorrow night and and kudos to the NFL. They’re finally giving us a true double header. You know, last

year they did a lot of those where they had the two Monday night games spaced out by an hour. Thought I found that a little annoying. This week we get an

actual double header. Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp

money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams that look

great in week one, how about the Chargers and Justin Herbert? They looked awesome last Friday night. They beat Kansas City

in in Sa Paulo, Brazil. They looked really good. You know, I love Jim Harbaugh. So, keep an eye on the Chargers. They I

think the Raiders will end up being a big need for the books because there will be parlays all day today going into

the Chargers tomorrow night in the late game. We’ll probably need the Raiders in

that one. We’ve got a WNBA question. What’s your feedback when the playoffs start?

Uh, let me see. the what was I mean repeat the question I’ll attempt to answer it what was it

WNBA any advice when the playoffs start oh boy let’s see well luckily for me I

do work at a sports book so I can look to see what the smart people bet on because I don’t know much about the WNBA

I apologize for that but certainly some smart money on it looks like the Storm

oh against the Aces that’s unfortunate the Storm tonight against the Aces in game one they bet down from plus 7 to +

5 and a half. They also bet the over in that game. So, the storm and the over

game one is tonight in Las Vegas. There’s a big sporting in sporting event in Las Vegas every day, Ariel, every

single day. And wait till we get Major League Baseball in a couple of years. I can’t wait. I will be there. I want to

go and make sure that we go to a real baseball game together. JM

live from Las Vegas. Thanks for hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving us the needs of the day.

Appreciate you. And not good luck. No good luck today. Oh, that’s nice. That’s very nice.

You’re welcome. I’ll still talk to you next week anyway. I appreciate that. Thanks, John Murray. Have a good one.

And if you guys don’t know about it, the oddslogic screen, you could go to oddslogic.compropeen.

And you heard Yanni mention it. It shows you literally all the odds on the board. It tells you how lines opened, how

they’re closing, how they moved, and every sports book, etc. So, oddslogic.com/prop

queen. Someone who knows about OddsLogic very well. Our good friend Carman Biano joining the show now. He’s not in Vegas.

He’s in Canada. What’s up, Karm? Not much. I can’t John Murray used his

luck today on Liverpool. They got a 93rd minute penalty kick, so he should be happy uh even if the book takes a hit

today. But um everything’s good. Um weather’s still good up here. No snow,

Ariel, don’t worry. And our our Blue Jays are still a top of the AL East, but

we won’t go there. It’s football Sunday. It’s football Sunday. We can talk about the AL East and that craziness this

coming week. But Karm, I don’t really get to talk much NFL with you. Usually it’s hockey, it’s baseball, it’s soccer.

NFL, what do you like today? Uh we’re going to talk like some

overreactions. So I’m going to go through some games. I think the the two that really stand out to me. Uh well, I have a 5% play up at Wager Talk, so I’m

not going to discuss that game. Uh you can get it over on my page, but one of

my client plays today is Denver. You know, we talk about like overreaction. Uh you know, Indie had a very good game

against Miami, but Miami I I thought Miami just looked terrible out of the gate. Uh, you know, I feel like this

line should probably be around um, uh, Denver two, two and a half. I’m seeing

like a lot of ones and one and a halfs on the wager talk live odds. It’s never going to hit three. It’s never going to

hit that key number. But, you know, Denver is supposed to have a good season. They have a very good defense. They didn’t play uh did did they didn’t

seem to be ready to play in week one against Cam Ward uh on the road in his

first start as a rookie, but they got the win and that’s all that ultimately matters. They don’t care about covering

point spreads. They care about W’s. Um I I I think they win here and uh and I

think they they they cover this spread easily. At least they they win by three points, which is more than enough.

Houston definitely on Monday night. I absolutely love that one. That’s going to be on my card as well, too. I just

haven’t loaded it yet at two and a half. When we talk about like overreactions, I’m seeing a lot of money coming in on

Miami. Miami is like up to two and a half right now. And I I still don’t get it w with the Dolphins. Uh I think once

they get rid of their once they get rid of their coach, uh we may see a change in this team. But I just don’t get how

the Miami Dolphins year in and year out look like a team that has potential to

win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight and eight n and

eight. Uh Cleveland Baltimore, you’re not going to like this one, Ariel, but I think Cleveland stays within the number

on this one. It it is at a point now where it’s at 12 and there’s always that back door if Baltimore uh was to blow

them up. But Cleveland’s front four is a very good front four. And if they can somehow uh stop Derrick Henry, which is

it seems like impossible to do, and uh and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay inside this number. Flaco

doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Uh the team can run. So we’ll we’ll see what happens here uh between those two, but I

think they can stay within that number. Everyone is on Baltimore in Survivor and I I absolutely understand that in circa

I think there’s 6,000 plus on the Ravens as the most picked team. San Francisco I

don’t get Ariel I don’t get the I I understand the line drop. Uh I do but

this is still a very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have to give me

M. Jones versus Rattler, I’m going to take M. Jones on this team. This team

still has CMC uh Persol. Uh Joan Jennings is supposed to be a game time decision and they still have that

defense. Uh while they have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense and

sometimes defense will win you games and put your team in a position to win games. It’s at three now and bettable.

At five and a half, I don’t think it was bettable. At three, I would take San Francisco even with the injuries. Uh

what else? Casey, a little bit of overreaction, I think, on that one. I get it. Philadelphia absolutely smoked

them in the Super Bowl last season, but Casey’s Casey is still Casey. Uh, and

uh, at home, uh, this is in Casey, I believe, is it

not? Uh, at home, Casey. Mahomes as a dog. We’ve talked about it before.

Not a good situation to bet against them. Uh regular season and playoffs are

two different beasts. Uh just ask the Buffalo Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in pre uh sorry in

regular season and then uh get eliminated in the playoffs. Uh two

different ones there. And then the final one I think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of like Atlanta getting the

hook uh at the three and a half tonight uh in that late one.

Kind of going through like the entire card today. I wasn’t expecting that. No, blasting through it.

No, I love it because these are plays. John Murray just came on and he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina

are the four sides that they probably need the most today. And I am not surprised because I feel like a lot of

people I’ve heard of are on Arizona. I get it. And I really like James Connor today in his rushing yard prop because

Carolina D is terrible against the run. Um, but I have a friend who works in

Carolina and he loves the Panthers today. So, I feel like there’s just like a lot of pros verse Joe’s today.

Shouldn’t he like uh Carolina though if he if he lives No, he works in media. Like he’s

nonbiased. Nonbias. So, he’s nonbiased. Okay. Well, I I get it. Uh, I I I always put my bias aside

when I’m talking about the Buffalo Bills as well, too, because you can sort of let that your mind

and um, no, I I hardly ever bet on the Bills. It uh, normally because number

one, the the spreads are just uh, even though they’re a good cover team and they were last year, the spreads are

normally just high. You look at the Bills today and we didn’t discuss the Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves

the Jets. Uh I I know Joe Reeri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems to love

the Jets. A terrible scheduling spot for the Bills. Ravens last week. They’re on a short week next week going to M or

facing Miami. So I understand. I had no I wanted nothing to do with the Bills.

Yeah. and uh you know and you look at some of the injuries obviously Ed Oliver uh missing is a a big miss for them but

you look at some of the injuries during the week uh um with regards like the

like even their running back uh he tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday uh he wasn’t a full participant on Thursday I

think he did practice on Friday so we’ll see what we we get from him uh Keon Keon

Coleman as well too and then there’s that guy who you just don’t want to throw at which is uh Sauce Gardner. You

know, you just don’t want to go against them. Uh and the and if you look at historically over the last few years um

with uh with Josh Allen, uh he doesn’t go after Sas Gardner. He’s gone after him a couple times. He doesn’t go after

him. So, it it’s who else on the Bills steps up. Uh we’ll see what Shakir does

as well, too. But, uh I understand the live live movement. I think seven coming out uh opening at seven uh was probably

not a great thing because it was always going to bring in Jets money and it’s down to like five five and a half I

think six. You know, the interesting thing is, you know, people talk about teasers. And while I I do enjoy playing

teasers, you look at the three most popular teams with like a six and a half point teaser. And this was as of like

last night, you could have taken the Bills, Zona, and Detroit, and essentially made all three games a pick

them. And those three teams would pay you back at plus 130 on a six and a half

point teaser. If you take the same three teams on the money line, it pays 140. And this is why when you’re playing

teasers, it’s important to keep an eye on the money lines of these teams and see is it better to play a moneyline

ticket than it is to play a teaser because you’re you’re giving up some value by not taking the plus 140 on the

money line parlay as opposed to taking a teaser. Well, yeah, we were just talking about

this before, especially with all these books now charging you minus 135 for a teaser, a two-legged teaser. Just

absolutely ridiculous. And seven, by the way, Jimmy Burke 13, terrible against

the run. They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey. They have been terrible against the run for the

last year and a half. They were the worst run D in football last year. And it didn’t change after they allowed

Travis ETN to put up 143. So, come on. Let’s It’s not just week one. Like, not

just week one. Sorry, I had to get that out there. Karm, what are you promoting today?

Uh, three plays up. Uh I gave you guys one of them which is uh the Denver Broncos, but uh a 5% play uh since the

start of the 2022 NFL season which dates back three years now. Uh when releasing

four and 5% plays and all of my plays uh this week are four and 5% plays plus 130

units uh at wager talk which is number one amongst everyone at wager talk with

uh NFL. And we’re coming off a 3 and 0 day in college football yesterday as well too. Um, I got what uh Ariel, I got

the closing line value yesterday on I released it early in the week because I figured the line would drop on Arkansas.

They were plus seven uh once Old Miss um announced their their QB was out. That

line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time and I got the cover. So, I’m pretty happy about that with with

Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But the weekend warrior uh package is still up. $49 will get you

all of today’s plays and all of tomorrow’s plays in NFL football as well, too. So, um that that is it for

now. No other uh no other plays up. Uh it’s been a great weekend, five and one

yesterday, and we’re just going to try and keep it going through Sunday and Monday. And we’re going to be sweating

the games live today. Uh if you guys haven’t seen it uh la or you didn’t

watch it last week, Enzone Live, which will be on I think around 1:30 today, I

could be wrong on the time, but Enzone Live today. Uh the press um there’s a

bunch of people coming on the show. There’s about four or five and we just sweat the games. We let you know what our bets are and uh it is like five guys

at a bar just talking trash to each other and uh trying to win bets because

sometimes we’re on opposite sides. So talking trash is great. We love talking trash. Karm, you’re the

best. Thanks so much for coming on. Good luck today. You as well. Thank you. Cody Holloway, I don’t know what FanDuel

you’re at. My FanDuel charges minus 130US 135 on teasers. So, I don’t know

if it’s a state-by-st state thing, but here in New York, FanDuel is not charging minus 110. In fact, I haven’t

seen one book charge a minus 110 on a teaser, a two-leg teaser. I have not

seen a minus 110 anywhere on any of the public sports books or the um the sports

books over here. So, I don’t know where you’re getting that, but okay. Last but certainly not least, as we mentioned

before with Karm Enzone Live coming up at 1 PM Eastern time and all of your favorite Wazer Talk handicappers will be

on there sweating out their bets. Andy and Pres are going to be on there. So Pres joining the show. How did week one

go at that endzone live betting show? Well, uh I don’t know actually. I just

did all the talking. Uh everyone who How did you do? I I did okay. I went with my clients.

The show was fun. I had a blast. Uh, but it’s a long show and you know it’s still

you got uh sunshine outside. Normally I would have watched the game at my pool.

I have like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the hot tub. But alas, I got to work and

I’m okay with that. I I uh I offered my services. We love to work. Pres, what do you like

today? Uh what do I like today? Um God, I’ll tell you. I I’ll go down the card at 100

miles an hour, but I do want to say one thing firstly, Ariel, you mentioned rough spot for uh the the Bills with

Baltimore back behind us and uh Miami in front. Why is it not a rough spot for

the New York Jets? Circling a game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it, then screwing it up at the

end, having to go in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having to say no to their wives that night cuz they are very

upset. then having to go to Monday and being lectured and reamed out uh all the

way through the week, feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves. The only reason it’s not is because the

Bills are on a short week going into Thursday. Okay. The only difference

I I accept what you’re saying and that’s what kept me off of the Bills today. But

uh yeah, no interest in the Bills today. But I agree with you that the Jets are not in any better of a position except

they are the home team and they aren’t on a short week, but I have no interest in the game because if

you think I want to be that miserable to have to bet the Jets this week, the answer is no. Okay. I like Miami. You guys were

talking about it earlier. Uh John Murray said a lot of money coming in on New England, which is very interesting given

that Miami is now minus 2 and a half. Uh we’ve done a deep dive into this and uh

if you can get a an an NFL team under minus two, you’re better off taking it on the money line. That does not work at

two and a half. At minus two and a half, you’re better off in the long run taking

uh laying the points. But I like Miami here and I look at it this way. This is

their season. This is this might be Mike McDaniel’s coaching career. that last

week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong in every way that if they can’t

fix it immediately, I don’t think they continue. So, I think Miami has to give

us the best game they can all year and they are at home and it’s a short price.

And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m an emotional uh when as a handicapper, I look at the emotions of

teams and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this game feeling really high on themselves. Um look, they they

won last week miraculous fashion. They’re 1 and0. They’re in a tough division. They have a game that is

easily winnable. Um and I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I’m not a fan

of Sam Darnold at all. So there’s two bets. I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami

and both of those two are in my circa uh bets. Also, real quick, Ariel, the show

starts at 1 p.m. The live show that we’re doing starts at 100 p.m. today and

yeah, it’s a blast. Last week, we had an absolute blast.

Everyone gets to tune in at 1 pm Eastern time to watch Enzone live betting show. You could see Fred sweating out all

those bets he gave. Uh before I let you go, I know you got to get ready for the show. Survivor plays today.

Yeah. So, I took Arizona on my Survivor play. And you know, Ariel, the the

Baltimore play for all the people in the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took Baltimore is now going

to get stuck having to pick between Green Bay in Detroit,

Washington in Dallas, or they’re going to have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because

Baltimore is out for Christmas or Thanksgiving. Whichever one of those it’s Thanksgiving.

Yeah. So, whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly because

would you take Green Bay going into Detroit? Would you take Detroit hosting Green Bay? Would you take Washington

going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington? No chance you’re taking Cincinnati in Baltimore. So,

I don’t get it. I try to take a longterm approach with this. Uh, so we’ll see. I guess there are people that take the

long-term approach. Then there are the people that take the I just want to survive to that point approach.

That’s probably most of the public the way that they play it. Uh I know that Survivor I know like Lions is probably

up there too for some people, but Arizona is a pretty I like the play even though I know the books need the Panthers. So good luck to you.

Yeah. And one of the guys in the chat room uh way back said, “Who’s a better better Giani or the press?” Uh, Giani

uh, lives, sleeps, eats, breathes. Giani

literally lives betting like nobody I’ve ever met before in my life. It It’s 18

hours a day. All he does is study bets. I do not. I am a businessman and I make

bets and I’m good at it. But Giani, Giani hands down. Although in NHL,

I’m way better than Giani. So that in that one sport, but Giani,

everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it’s baseball for me. I could be Kelly in baseball. And everything else, I’ll

give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds, and sleeps this stuff. Press, so do you, though. So do you. We love to have you

on here on Last Call. Have fun watching those games live with all the audience at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Everyone, make

sure to tune in. Uh good luck today. Thanks guys. Thanks for having me. Thanks for doing the cereal.

Of course. Pres. Okay. So for me, a few props that I gave out earlier this week

throughout the show. Jir Gibbs over rushing yards. James Connor over rushing yards. Travis Kelce under receiving

yards. I think Joe Flacco throws the football a lot in his first game back at Mnt Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Um

there’s obviously analytics and analysis behind all this. Um, so if you want to check it out, you can go to the prop

queen.com. Sign up and subscribe to the newsletter or you can watch my shows at the prop queen pod. Um, I’ve given out

all that info all over the show. Best bet right now, as of today, I took James Connor over uh

I think it was 63 and a half. I think it’s up to 68 and a half now. Um, but I took over 63 and a half rushing yards

for Jim Connor earlier this week. He is the Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers who I’ve mentioned

is the worst rund in football dating back to last year. Travis ETN just ran for 143 last week. James Connor last

year underratedly faced four different teams um that were bottom 10 against the run. And James Connor rushed for at

least 100 yards in all four of those games. They’re a six and a half point favorite. So if there is a chance they’re up, they’re going to run the

ball anyway. Take advantage, run down the Panthers D. Um, the only problem that we’d have with this is if it is a

close game. John Murray said that the Panthers are in need for their book at the Super Bowl. So maybe this game’s

closer, but James Connor should be able to run the football well against the Panthers. Um, but if you don’t like

that, then Jier Gibbs would be my second favorite over 67 and a half rushing yards. He’s also getting a Bears defense

that I don’t trust yet against the run either. They looked good last week against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones,

but we know that the Lions backfield is way more versatile and way faster than those two running backs. The Bears

allowed the second most rushing yards per game to running backs last year. So, I would take advantage of those two

running back props. Um, you can’t get the Travis Kelce number anymore at 53 and a half. It’s now 49 a half. Um, and

then I mentioned I think Joe Black has to throw the football a lot today at Mnt Bank Stadium. That is a very high pass

attempt total. 37 and 1/2 38 and 1/2. So those are like my top four props for

today. Um I probably could give you a fifth. I just have to go look at the

newsletter again to remember exactly what I gave out. Um I’ve also been

having some technical difficulties on my end on my computer today. Um

let’s see a fifth prop. And we’ve got Premier Lacrosse Championships by the way coming up in a half hour. So, if you

want a PLL play, Jared Burnernhard over two and a half points. He had four

points in the game-winning goal in overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlas are strong against the

attack, whereas Burnernhard runs out of the box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. Um, he had 37 touches and

nine shots, which was a season high in their last matchup. So, Gerard Burnernhard over two and a half points

in Premier lacrosse. Um, a few other plays in the NFL today. Cole KT under 19

and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch for 31 yards last week. We had the over on his longest reception that

cashed. But the Bears, they drafted Coloulson Loveland and he had two catches on two targets for 12 yards last

week. Kind of getting his feet wet. But now you’re getting a Lions D that allowed the third least receptions and

third least receiving yards per game to tight ends. Only 37% of tight ends went over their receiving yard prop last year

against Detroit. Um, I think Cole Kat takes a step back this week. So, I would

say under on his receiving yards. Darnell Mooney is a sleeperish play slash a little risky solely because he

missed week one with the shoulder injury. He should be playing today. Mooney had the most 20 plus yard catches

for the Falcons last year. He had 21. The next best was Drake London with 12. So, Darnell Mooney is your deep threat

in Atlanta. The Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers and second most receiving yards per game

to them. Do I trust the amount of touches? Do I trust the amount of targets that Darnold Mooney will get in

his first game of the year? No. But I do trust that there’s going to be a deep ball thrown to him. And against the

secondary, which is more vulnerable than their pass rush in Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over 19 and a half yards for his

longest reception is another play that I would take a close look at today. That’s it for us here on Last Call on Wager

Talk. I’m the prop queen, Ariel Epstein. Thanks so much for tuning in. We’ll see you guys next week. Good luck to those

bets.

NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Trends, and Player Props

Urban City Podcast Group — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 18:15:56 +0000

From Akron to Activism, LeBron Built More Than Championships.

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Major Takeaways:

Significant line movement has occurred, with the Packers shifting from -4.5 openers to -3 at most books, largely due to key Green Bay offensive linemen being questionable.
Strong week-two betting trends heavily favor the Washington Commanders to cover the spread, especially when facing a team that won big in its opener.
Player prop bets on Commanders defenders to record sacks are popular, with analysts targeting Donte Payne and others to exploit potential protection issues for Jordan Love

NFL Week 2 Betting Preview: Packers vs. Commanders Odds, Trends, and Player Props

This is VSIN, the sports betting network.

Always follow the money. Follow the money. That’s what I always say. You always follow the money. This is Follow the Money with Mitch Moss

and Paulie Howard on VSIN. Here we go. It is follow the money on

VON, the sports betting network. Mitch Moss along with Paulie Howard. We are live in downtown Las Vegas from the

Circa Resort and Casino here on a busy Thursday. Uh fun program, informative

program, uh opinionated program coming up over the next three hours. Like I said, Paul Chian in 30 minutes, two full

segments with him on fantasy for week two and player props that he likes tonight and this weekend. Drew Butler,

former kicker at Georgia. Why is this number moved so much? Tennessee’s way. We’ll ask him about that. Steve Wis, the

Meatman, best bets in soccer. John Kim tonight, who covers the Commanders with a Thursday night football preview coming

up a little bit later on, Paulie. And on the screen right now, I see that

DraftKings is at three and a half in the game tonight. Minus 118 if you want to take it with the Commanders. Minus 102

on the Packers. Pretty much every other spot has Green Bay minus three. now in

the game with various juice on that as well. Did you know that Circa opened up four and a half right away on Sunday

night? Oh wow. Yeah. VO’s very own Dogger pass man Dave Tulie grabbed the four and a half and then he

was on the network that night with uh Scott Seidenberg and he said I still absolutely would recommend plus the

four. So that’s the uh direction in which this bad boy has been moving. Now I I agree with it. I grabbed three and a

half earlier today minus 115 on the commanders. All right, good. I like the Packers. I know they’re coming off a perfect game.

Washington didn’t play well, but I think Green Bay can move the ball on this Washington defense. It’s a whole

different ballgame going against the Giants and I want to see what Parsons can do as well that he wasn’t out there

a lot, but had a big big impact on the game when he was out there against Detroit and we’ll see what happens today

with that defense and and uh carried away all aboard on the Packer bandwagon

from 23 to1 to 8 to1 to win the uh to win it all and the NFC odds as

well. crazy. What’s going on with the futures? So, we’re on opposite sides of this one for tonight. I’ll give you a rundown of some week 2 trends in recent years. If

it means anything to you coming up in a few minutes, but here’s here’s one reason why I like the Commanders, but we’ll find out a little bit more uh

probably 90 minutes or so before game time tonight, like who is actually going to be active and inactive. And I’ll say

this on the Packers side, Bo Melton, cornerback, he is out. Brettton Cox,

Dlineman, he is out. But my biggest question mark are the following two players for Green Bay. Guard Aaron Banks

and then offensive lineman Zack Tom. They’re both questionable. If they can’t go in this game tonight, um I’ll give

you an example here. Will Anderson for Houston in the offseason was asked about the most difficult offensive lineman

that he’s faced in his career so far. His answer, Zack Tom from Green Bay. So,

he’s very good. And if they’re without both guys, I think uh Love’s going to feel a little bit of the pressure

tonight by this front for the Commanders. And also, I I did not I was unaware of this because we have not been allowed to bet at DraftKings because

they own the company for so long. So, I never really looked at this until today. You can bet individual players. I know

that you could bet individual players to get a sack at some spots, but they offer over a quarter sack. So, if a guy

contributes to a sack and he gets a half a sack, that’s going to be a winner. And

like for example, Payne tonight, Don Payne, over a quarter sack, plus 302.

Payne had two sacks last week. Um, Armstrong is 2 to1 over a quarter sack.

He had six pressures on Russell Wilson, one sack and five hurries, and two other players to throw at you. Uh, Kinlaw had

three pressures and two quarterback hits, plus one hurry. Over a quarter sack tonight is plus 394.

And then like, does Von Miller play? We’ll find out again a little bit later on. He’s plus 196.

And if it’s going to be, we’re talking no Zack, Tom, no Aaron Banks. I would like to attack it by betting all those guys over a quarter sack tonight.

Well, they had time to game plan though all week, too. And Laflur is an excellent coach that he is. And uh see if they’ll have something ready to get it out fast. I know they

want to take shots down the field, but ground and pound and a lot of Jacobs, too. So, they have a lot of talented players and a lot of weapons. I’m high

on this Golden kid, but also they were just uh didn’t get to showcase all their stars last week because they were

sitting on the big lead and the defense was all over. Oh, DraftKin just went to 32 now, man. Did they move to three?

Um and uh you know, it was just run the ball with Jacobs and the defense was all over Goffin and Baris Detroit. So, I

give them the edge because of the short turnaround and being at home and the fact that do with this what you want. Lafleur has been unbelievable. He’s he’s

what 12-0 uh ATS week two and week three. Yeah. So that that’s also strong as

well. He’s very good. Um let me give you some other numbers here with like recent trends. Steve Mackin von.com must read

every single week in the first half of the season. Home teams are 25 and 22

straight up on Thursday Night Football. But only 15 30 and2 ATS 33% in the last

47 games going back to 2018. And when you uh dig even deeper, since

2016, home teams in weeks 9 and later are 44 and 27 straight up, 422 26 and 3

at 62%. And Steve provides his analysis on that as well. And it makes a lot of

sense like right away there’s no like real travel spot. I know it’s a Thursday night here, week two for Washington, but

later on in the year really catches up with the road teams early on in the season has not been a big deal. teams

playing a second straight home game in week two and are favored are 14 and 10

straight up but five and 19 ATS over the last three years. That would be Green Bay tonight. You’re down 16 units with

that. And I’ll give you some other numbers from VO host Steve Mackin. You can follow or check that Scott

Seidenberg. You can follow him on X at Scotsson on air. Since the start of the 2021 season,

that’s when we expanded to 17 games and the preseason went down to three weeks. Dogs in week two are 3721-4

against the spread, covering on average by 1.7 points per game. And teams that won in week one and then are favored in

week two are 11 and 21 with three uh pushes ATS since then. That would be

Green Bay. And when those uh 1 and0 favorites are home in week two, only 515 and one ATS. So if you buy into the week

one, week two trend stuff, it’s all anti- Green Bay here in this spot.

Another one, if a team won their week one game by 10 plus points in week two,

they’re 13 and 14 at uh and only 5-1 ATS. Uh failing to cover

by 1.9 points per game when listed as a favorite in week two. So, strong stuff there on Washington’s side in this game

tonight. Packers are the better team. I’m confident in them tonight. How about how the total’s too high? Why is this 49?

Well, h why is that total so high? Washington’s improved defense and what we saw last week. So, I expect both

teams to run the ball and Green Bay was so dominant last week defensively. I’m shocked at this total. And then it went

up. Keeps going up. Yeah. Yeah. I went under 48 and now now we’re up to 49 in some spots and 48 and a

half. Is that because the Washington offense is so like highly thought of and so it’s power rated to the moon?

They didn’t I know, but that was last year. They didn’t play well. Well, they had 400 yards. Last Well, I mean, you had to hang on to

beat the Giants from if the Giants could cash in at the goal line and not throw the ball. Uh I think that that’s one

thing that the good Giants defense though, too. But to me, it’s all about Parsons and and the impact he can have on this game. And there was a good

article about this is the great marriage which is already a good defense and now with Howley how dangerous this could be and could it be the best defense in the

league on the field against Detroit. The Packers conceded minus two rushing yards

and seven plays. 48 yards on 15 plays without Parsons. Everywhere he went, the

Lions made sure they had two or three hats on him. Dominant on his own created easier matchups for everyone around him.

He had his first sack. Goff got rid of the ball more than half a second quicker when Parsons was on the field. 2.8

seconds compared to when he was off 3.36 despite Parsons being confined largely

to third downs. On the snap, the Packer sacked Golf three times and coughed it up 2.4 yards a play. The longest game

going for uh 16 yards. Betting on Parsons to transform Halfley’s defense was like getting in on

water before the first day. The guy writes in this article, incredible job. And that’s, you know, it’s been nothing

but hype for the last uh seven days, but probably longer than that once they acquired him. But I think it’s uh it’s

rightfully they’re rightfully the favorite to win the division and they just destroyed Detroit. The one thing Detroit did do was they hit Laaporta.

So uh the guru making the case for Z over sure catches and receptions and he scored a touchdown last week. So

there’s also this uh a couple of props here with Jane Daniels. His rushing prop earlier today was as low as 43 and a

half. I think it’s going up at some books. Surprise, surprise. Uh people betting him to go over, but his longest

rush is also listed at 15 and a half yards. He went over that number 10 times last year and he had 68 yards last week.

He cleared 43 and a half rushing yards 12 times last year, including the playoffs.

I think there’s an angle here where the Packers try to bring a lot of pressure on him. Like Parson’s around the edge,

that’s what he thrives at. And if this guy is going to be as elusive as, you

know, he was in year one, and I think that’s going to continue because he’s so talented. I think that’s going to create some open running lanes here for him

tonight. And I think like over 15 and a half with the longest rush could be there

that long, right? Because like it’s going to that’s a big number. If they come around like that and that’s going to create some running

lanes for him and he’ll take off and if they don’t have a spy on him at that point, I think he might be able to clear that. But also like that could I think

that’s can that overall is going to keep Washington moving the sticks for a lot of this game. That’s why I’m on love over cuz Washington’s going to play man and just

take off and run. I can’t believe his numbers that low. I bet it it came down. I bet it over this morning. You can go over rushing yards and over

uh over longest rush and the guru’s on that as well. You can ladder him too. I

think Love will take he took off three times against Detroit. But I think he’ll there’ll be plenty of opportunities for

Love to uh take off and go and leave will get four and a half yards on the longest rush. Yeah, I I played over four and a half. I

think Circa was at four and a half minus 120 today for uh overall rushing yards by Jordan Love. Did you find Debo to have a rush?

Yes, I did. Uh over a half a rush was minus 240 and I think they moved it to over one

and a half plus 180 at bet 365. But his yards came back down by the way.

So it got as high as 7 and a half yesterday. Debo is now back down to four and a half now, but his his props been

moving back and forth like a ping-pong match the last 12 hours. VO Pro delivers real-time DraftKings and

Circa betting splits. See where the public and sharps are putting their money. The morning email from Bill 80 recapping all the best bets from every

host, every guest. 247 video, the pro tools, the prop analyzer, the Mackin and trends, everything you need to stay

ahead of the season. Burke on college $9.99. Save 50% with an annual subscription. von.com/subscribe

today. Sign up now. $9.99. bson.com/subscribe. Matt Laflur also 23 and9 ATS in prime

time. Win some lose some coming up next. And we’ll update the live Major League Baseball betting board here on Follow

the Money. It’s VSIN the Sports Betting Network.

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betting, Von’s got your weekend game plan. Fridays at 7 p.m. it’s the Circa Friday Football Invitational. Saturday

morning, Von’s College Football Tailgate Show at 9:00 a.m. breaking down matchups, props, and big-time bets.

Later that night, join the football contest show as the sharpest betting minds give you their picks for Sunday’s

game. And Sunday at 9:00 a.m., lock in with Mitch and Paulie on Von’s Pro Football Tailgate Show, your final stop

before kickoff. Check out the full lineup at von.com and join us on the Sports Betting Network.

On the next edition of Prop Points, we’ll start off the show reacting to all the action from Thursday Night Football.

Decent betting analyst Ben Stevens will join the program to give out his best bets for week three of college football.

Can number 15 Tennessee defeat number six Georgia? We’ll see what Ben has to say. We’ll close out the show with some

of my favorite player props and touchdown props for Sunday’s NFL action. I’m John Hansen. Tune in to Prop Points

at 100 p.m. Eastern, only on VSON, the sports betting network. So Paulie, have you had a chance to read

the VSON daily yet? Yeah, came in at 3:00 a.m. What’s Bill doing up that late? Well, rumor has it it starts off with a

12-hour meditation session. Then he just pours himself over film and

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In Las Vegas, Bill’s late night becomes your early morning. Wake up to the very

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Win some, lose some is sponsored by the Shark Plays. Were you a winner last night? Wow. Winning.

Or was it a rough one? Well, they can’t all be winners, can they? Loser. You’re a loser. Paulie Howard recaps the night in sports

betting in win some, lose some. Big one cash. Most runs available every night.

Caesars and Will and DraftKings. Tigers 40 to1. Phillies 20 to1. Dead heat.

Highest scoring game. Phillies Mets 12 to1. The home team is 11-1 this year.

Head-to-head in that Phillies matchup. Cubs plus 145, Reds plus 130. Padres’s

blow it again. What a disappointing organization. They might miss the playoffs, honestly.

Well, see if they sweep the Rockies. I’m not uh holding my breath on that one. Subscribe, be part of the team, von.com,

our radio and podcast friends. You always want to see these tweets and videos at paulyv on Instagram. Send them

in. We’ll put you on. Thanks to everyone who keeps sending them in on a regular basis. Look at this guy coming down on

the the hill going uh on the snow. He’s going to beat him. He’s on the raft on

the little ride and the dog’s going to beat him all the way down the hill in the snow trying to catch him as he pulls him down. And he stayed ahead of him the

whole way. God, that guy can scoot. He stays ahead of the the human the whole time as he’s on the tube coming down on

the hill on the snow. That’s incredible. What kind of dog is that?

Looks like Digs Aussy’s dog. It’s almost like a Jack Russell, but I know it’s not. But look at that. Begging him to chase him

and play catch, if you will, and I’ll come down the hill and I’ll beat you. This dog could win like contest with the

100 meter dash. I mean, yes. Do you ever watch it on ESPN where they dive in the water to get the the toy? But I mean, how far

they can get in the air? That’s right. That’s great. Excellent. How about the little hole in the gate here?

They’re coming in. 19.

19. Oh, this is that Oh, what is this? Oh, okay. They made like a 50ft hot dog, I

believe. Was that Fenway? It might be longer than that, actually. Who did this? Oh my god.

Well, my guess is this is AAA. Oh, some of some Okay. as like a promotion. But it also looks like a really nice stadium. So I I can’t

remember. I saw this online. I can’t remember exactly where. No, that’s bigger than TripleA for sure. Was that chestnut involved? He was just

doing some other event where he ate 15 lbs of something. Oh, he could probably eat like a 50ft hot dog.

Bent down the longest 28 seconds. Okay. The longest hot dog ever. Okay, now 19. Look at Yeah. Peekaboo. Coming

in the hole in the gate. Dogs peeking their head out. What’s going on? What are you What are you up to? Taking the

back. That’s so good. It’s like when the like when the the person’s got the condo but

it’s it’s way up and then she cut a hole and so the dog could see what’s going on downstairs or if you’re lower they could

play fetch with the dog. Yeah. And he can throw the tennis ball up there and he’ll put it through the hole as well. That’s great. As always beats

whiskey and a revolver. Under eight and a half in the Dodger game. 4 nothing bottom of the eighth. Mooki hits a grand

slam and then Hernandez goes deep. Nine nothing. Cardinals plus a run and a half. Oh, 2-2 in the 13th. Guy comes in

for the Mariners. I think it’s a pinch runner. Then he had a two-run walk-off bomb to cover the run line. And they

sweep St. Louis in a game they had to have. I saw the highlight after the game was over with um late last night. And I’m

like, yeah, uh there are some people who are going to wake up tomorrow morning who thought that bet was dead if they had the Mariners on the run line. And

well, and then in the inning, right? And then the inning before Seattle had the bases loaded with nobody out, didn’t

score. Like what’s the probability of that happening? I was watching I was watching in play. What do you think it was

for them to like score a runner to win the game? Well, yeah, right. Cuz you that’s the bottom of the 12.

They they were minus 2,000. Yeah. In that range, right? You could get like 12 12 to one takeback.

Yeah. So it’s like it’s they got out of it. There was a strike out, I think, and then a double play. Come on. And that’s like less than 5%. Yep.

Then the Padres’s one- nothing in the eighth. They blow it with that great bullpen. All you got to do is get a lead like in the sixth.

You’re going to be good to go. Why did he make a pitching change? He already had a lefty in the game. Yeah, he went lefty lefty and they couldn’t

get Paveta any help last night. No, I know Abbit’s good. Yeah. Yeah. For the line moves, sharp plays already

there. Jeff and the crew do a great job. You’re not going to smarter out muscle billion dollar books. So full-time

sharps on your own with the sharp plays. You don’t have to. Powered by advanced AI and plugged in trusted insider

sources. They deliver the edge serious beters use everyday free reports, alerts, market moving insights. Send

straight to your inbox or X feed. Add it since 2011. Documentary results, public logs, transparent receipts.

Sharpplays.com. Trusted by pros, watch by the books. Visit sharpplays.com. Stay out of the line. Incredible information.

He’s always on sharpplays.com. I’ll update a couple of games going on as we speak. Uh they’re both shutouts

right now. By the way, shout outs keep coming in every single day. But the White Socks are doing it again.

And they open up as dogs today again against Tampa Bay. And they’re up five nothing right now in

the seventh. This team, are they going to run away and hide with most wins in September? No. This is crazy talk. Run away and hide. Yeah, it’s a it’s

it’s a great sweat though. I would say runaway and hide. Another one is uh Toronto right now with a four nothing lead over Houston. Top of

the fifth. That’s Gossman going today. Oo, Seattle could be tied for first place. Juicy. And Baltimore swept Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh now 22 and 50 on the road. Every loss is by a run.

Right. And I I saw you that Mariners game though tonight. That’s going to be Miller going against Sorriano. Soraniano

was on the schedule for yesterday but pushed back to today. I actually the market is uh on Seattle in this game.

Opened up about a buck 45. It’s up like 10 cents from that right now. I I do not trust Miller enough to like

back him. And Soran was a guy we talked about yesterday. It’s like every other start with very difficult guy to figure out, but he was awful in his last start.

I’m on the Phillies again. Again, the home team’s 11-1 between the Mets and Phillies.

They’ve had no problems in the first three games of this four game set. Hey Paulie, good read by you on this series.

Yeah, every day you’ve been all over it both days. Magic number down to seven. Costano’s hitting 400 against Peterson career and

they can blow him out again. and I don’t trust Peterson and the Mets aren’t hitting other than Sodto. Uh Alonzo has

bad numbers against Lazardo. So I think the Phillies get him again. How about a 20cent move here on the game

the other way? They open up a buck 44. Uh is this accurate right now? Circus

at$122. That’s what they are on the screen. There was some movement in some of the other games as well. Um Detroit trying

to sweep the Yankees. Oh boy, this has been a bloodbath of a series. It’d be the third time they’ve ever done it in a modern era to sweep

the Yankees in New Yorkers. Yes. It’d be the second time in the modern

era if they win by double digits again. Can they win every game by 10 plus runs?

They’ve outscored them 23 to three in the first two games. Yeah. And the Yankees again tonight laying a$160 in that range. Maybe even a little

bit higher. the Washington Senators in 1951 and the Red Sox in 2021 were able to do it.

I would not be laying this big of a number with the Yankees at all. Yeah. Can’t do it. I do like Cleveland, too. I

think uh Williams, who’s been strong, 5-1 with a 174 since the break. Fourth best erra since

the break. Mhm. To take out the Royals tonight. And uh other than that, it’s a small card. I do

find that like Mike Palm the Maestro brought up that WNBA game interesting with uh the Lyns and the Golden State.

If Golden State wins, they’re the six. If they lose, they’re the eight and they

face the Lyns. The links are lane seven. Why would you play Callier? Why would you play anybody? The playoffs start

Sunday. Golden State money line is plus 250 in some spots, right?

I think they’re going to go out and try to win this game. I don’t want to play the links. Well, and why would the Lynx want to play them?

That too. You they can pick their opponent like like Mike Palm said. Sure, they play Seattle if uh if they lose to

Golden State. That that’s like the most logical approach here by the team. But then then you got to figure like are

WNBA teams to the point of where they actually buy into this kind of stuff

like where NBA teams might do this and NFL teams might kind of like, hey, we’re not going to send our best

guys out there. All of a sudden, four more guys are on the IR this game. Well, you’re playing that’s a management

uh decision, too. Right. And that’s what I’m saying. Like in the front office, do they actually have that in them mentally to

do it? Yeah. Let me give you some news on this Packers game. We talked about this in the first segment. More on it coming up with Paul Charian in about 5 minutes. Uh

tweet here from Packers Notes. The Packers placed defensive end Brentton Cox on IR, elevated quarterback Micah

Robinson, and offensive lineman Brent Banks from the practice squad. the

elevations would suggest that uh Nate Hobbs and Aaron Banks on the offensive

line along with Zack Tom probably won’t be playing tonight. I think that’s the uh the takeaway from that as well. M

maybe one of the offensive linemen yet because they only elevated one guy, Brandt Banks from the practice squad,

but it’s not looking good for those two guys on the team. And it looks like um there’s still one three and a half out

there nationally speaking, but you got to there’s severe juice on it and every other book basically is th now three on

the game. All right. Well, they got to prove it to me. A lot of talk about how they’ve addressed and fixed the defense and want to do a better job. Giants don’t count.

So, we going against the big boys tonight. Let’s see how that defense looks and if the Packers and Love can exploit it and have some success and and

slow down Daniels. I I like your guy, Bill, though, too. His rushing yards are too low. What was the last number that

you saw? Because I think that’s been on the uptick as well. I think I saw as low as 37 and a half. But yeah,

but in the low 40s as well. As always, shop around. Make sure you have several different outs here when you want to bet

this stuff. He’s uh plus money to get 40 at DraftKings. Okay. Interesting. All right.

Well, we have a Washington commander guest on coming up in about 90 minutes. Specifically going to ask him if Debo

Samuel is going to get a carry in this game tonight. I think they try to take away Jacobs and slow him down and that

can open it up for uh passing attack for love. Okay, very good. U fantasy football hall

of famer Paul Charian joins the program coming up next. Lot to get into over the next two

segments. What’s the appropriate approach with the 49ers as Brock Perie is out against the

Saints? We’ll ask him that coming up on Follow the Money. It’s Von the Sports Betty Network.

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Welcome in. Thanks for watching today on YouTube TV, listening on SiriusXM channel 158, iHeart Radio, TuneIn Radio,

or any of the uh great affiliates that we have across the country. We are trying to connect right now with fantasy

football hall of famer Paul Chian. Hopefully that happens here pretty soon. Until then, Paulie, of course it is.

Can you believe this? The 24th anniversary 911. No idea.

Next, next year will be a quarter century. Yeah. And I can’t I don’t I don’t even know what to say because it I it was

super emotional today. I followed the TSA Instagram account. It’s actually quite funny with some of the stuff that

people try to get by with. Yeah. The TSA Instagram account

put a video up today. Never forget. I It’s the first time I

ever saw some of those videos and heard some of the audio and I was just broken today

when I watched it. I tried sharing some of it on my Instagram. account Mitch Moss, but if you follow, if you don’t follow TSA, I’m telling you, if you’re

going to watch like one video today uh about 9/11, you have to look at this thing, man. It just crippled me earlier.

We got to know Jim Fossil. Yeah. The Giants head coach. And when the Giants went to the Super Bowl and lost

to the Ravens, great dude. The Yes. The following year, they opened up on the road against Denver. And then

they were they lost and then they were coming back and they got in like I think it was and they were next to Flight 93

if the memory serves when they got in and then hours later uh what happened

but you had the Jim Fossil Foundation and he was a great guy and he said I told our players after 9/11 then you had

took the week off they were playing the Chiefs and he said you wear that NYPD or fire department

baseball cap and I’m telling telling you, we’re honoring these people. I don’t want to see it flipped around. I

don’t want to see the bill up or sideways or something else. I want it front and center with that hat or don’t put it on. We won the game, went into

the locker room was like old times. Put our arms together, got on our knees, everyone got in the picture, cap was

straightforward, and we honored them. He told the story of Giuliani reaching out saying, “Hey, can you come down to

ground zero?” He goes, “I’m just a football coach.” He goes, “Uh, it would mean a lot.” He said, “Everything in my mind is so

visible of what what happened. I can replay it over and over and over again.” And the whole season after that happened

was something where we had to refocus ourselves. And I told the players, “You park your car, you get on the bus, you go to New York, Manhattan, and you

always see some cars there.” When I left at night, they were mostly all gone. For about 10 days, there were a whole bunch of cars left there. And I can only

picture the fact that those people parked their cars, got on the bus, and went over there, and they perished. tough on your stomach every morning when

you went to work every day and saw all those cars sitting there.

And I was hard to get through an interview every time he would tell that story. And uh you got to know him.

I traveled with him quite a bit cuz I called the UFFL games out here for the Las Vegas Locos. Yeah. And I did the coaches show and

this guy was so smart, great sense of humor. My favorite fossil other than

the, you know, the guarantee which was good. Putting all my chips in the middle. we are making the playoffs. And

they got hot and they did. But the other one was when he told the story, his phone’s ringing. So goes, “Why so many people calling me? What’s going on?” So

Jeremy Shocki’s on the Howard Stern show. What’s going on? And Shocki says, “My my my goal in life is to have a a

threesome with a mom and and two or two daughters.” And he goes, “You idiot. That’s a forsome.” And then he he goes,

“From now on, you have to clear through your agent every interview you ever do

and don’t ever go on there again.” And just screaming at Chocky and some of the stories that he had.

How about his first reaction, you idiot? That’s not three, that’s four. What a great story.

Here’s here’s Fossil though on the story of 911 and sharing some of his thoughts.

Paul Tagu made the right decision. He made the right decision. I mean, we were we were not ready. I mean, there was all

kinds of things that were so memorable to us. It’s like Giant Stadium was a was

a was a ground where people would drive their car into Giant Stadium, park it in the morning, and get on a bus into the

New York City. Okay? There might be 200 cars parked there. All right? And I

remember seeing it. And that night when I left, that parking lot was full. And it’s never that way. And I went, “Oh my

god.” I mean, how many people perished that parked a car here? When I go back in the next morning about six o’clock in

the morning, I’d say there was 150 cars still there. And I thought they just it made me sick

to think those people parked their cars and went into work uh in the city and

they probably perished. And uh Rich, you know, I got so many letters from people that said, you know, thanks for going to

the Super Bowl because now you’re on Monday Night Football and the game was so late, it finished after midnight that

I decided to go in late. I wasn’t going to get there early. I was going to take a half a day. And if if you guys weren’t

on Monday Night Football, I’d have probably been one of those towers. And u you know, people saying, “Thanks for

that.” I go, “Geez, really? It’s incredible. That that just hits you in the stomach

every time you hear it. Oh man. And that was several years ago on the Rich Eisen show cuz the game went so late. I I took a

half day. Oh, if they don’t go to the Super Bowl. Mercy. Yeah. So, I I will tell you this too.

Not only was that guy like a great sound bite, you know, that 9/11 story aside,

but like traveling with him too when I I called those games and he would like, you know, sit next to us on the flight

and then he would tell like the broadcasting crew to meet with him the

day before the game or the morning of the game. And that’s whenever you hear about like uh broadcasters telling you

like, “Hey, this is what I got.” Like they’re going to get some pretty good insight on the game. and if they’re going to share it, that could be

actually some pretty good information to follow along with like through throughout the contest. I noticed right

away the first time that that ever happened. It it the game unfolded to a tea how he

told my broadcast partner and me what what they were going to do and it was just like it was like a painting

watching it out there on the football field. He he that’s how good of a coach the guy was. And even at that level that

was called the United Football League. eventually players in that league went on to have like big impacts in the NFL.

You could watch like how effective the offense was like from the booth just to

see like he he gets it like he was it doesn’t matter where that guy was going to coach, he was going to be a good offensive coach. So anyway, that was uh

Jim Fossil and that’s that’s a little rough.

We lost him in 2021. Has it been that long now? Yeah,

that’s tough. Great guy. Yeah. Yeah.

So, um the other as we move along here on a sports betting network, the other New

York team this week is taking money as the Jets are taking on the Bills. That game’s

down to five and a half here at Circa. And Ed Oliver was an absolute menace on

the defensive line for Buffalo against Baltimore on Sunday night. He was spotted with a walking boot

earlier today. So imagine, go back to week one, what the Bills defense looked

like. I know it’s the Ravens offense, but then how good again what if the

Steelers defense is good. Well, yeah, cuz it was also they gashed them on the ground though. Sure. You know what the Jets are going to do?

You know, run the ball on them and how good they looked against the Steelers. Yeah, Jet the Steelers couldn’t stop

their ground attack. Yeah. So, I took um I think this number is going to keep coming down. I took six and a half with the Jets earlier today

and and I know that the game opened up on seven, but that didn’t last very long at all. And I don’t want to overreact

here to what we saw in week one, but you know, the Lions offensive coaching staff with their new OC. They have their

fingerprints now on this Jets team as they came over with Aaron Glenn, the new

head coach here for the Jets. And uh you got to like what Justin Fields looked like in that first game and picturing

him against this Bills defense that got absolutely gashed by Baltimore for I

don’t know 42 minutes on Sunday night before the the Ravens went into prevent mode on offense or try not to lose the

game mode and if they if they’re not going to have that Oliver man that’s a um

that’s a big loss potentially for him and so the total by the way keeps going up as well. Remember Paul Boie was on

the show on Monday, professional sports better who bet over 44 and a2 and over 45. That’s up to 46 and a half and trending

towards 47. What would you do if you’re running the 49ers now? Now Py could be out two to five,

right? M. Jones and Mike White. Oh boy. And

this is just this escalated quickly. Get out. Party out. This is they can’t

win. You got to call somebody because now it’s serious. What if it were what if Kyle Shanahan gets it to work with

Matt Jones cuz remember Michael Lombardi was saying that entire draft that that’s who they traded up for was M. Jones. Yeah, Shanahan wanted him. Got talked

out of it. That’s the guy he wanted. But I will my comeback would be okay.

Congratulations. You beat the Saints. Probably the worst team in the league. Then you have Arizona up next. I I

Let me give you this. I gota I gotta call somebody. The guy could miss five weeks now. Thanks to our our buddy uh Weston here on the program,

guy in the cornfields. He sent me this earlier today. This was Brian Thomas Jr.

in Jacksonville with M. Jones as a quarterback last year. Mhm. Okay. 7 for 103, 7 for 91 and a touchdown, 9

for 132 and a touchdown, 10 for 105 and two touchdowns, 8 for 86, and he had double digit targets in all those games.

My my Ricky Paw 2025 dream is not dead. If Matt Jones made it work like that

once he got clicking last year with Brian Thomas, maybe he comes in here with Kyle Shanahan and they realize, yeah, we’re going to be okay. I got

Ricky Pierce Hall to throw the ball to. Coupled with the report that Bellich stopped talking to M. Jones

that year. That’s right. Yeah. Yeah. All right. We’re going to connect with Paul Chargian coming up next. Fantasy Football Hall of Famer. We’ll get his uh thoughts on tonight’s game

and some fantasy angles as well for week two in the National Football League coming up here on VO.

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This is follow the money on VS. More on tonight’s game and week 2

National Football League fantasy perspective from fantasy football hall of famer Paul Charian with guillotine

leagues.com and he is on the progressive guest line. Good afternoon Charge. Thanks for the time today. How’s it going?

Uh excited for a pretty good what should be a really good Thursday night game. Better than last week’s for sure. And

you know I’m excited to see if the Packers are close to the team that we saw last week so we can really get a

sense of whether or not you know how much that’s Detroit, how much of that is Micah Parsons, where is was an already really good defense and you know Jordan

Love looked good. Where does he do in the second game? There’s so many great storylines in this one. I’m I’m very excited for this. So, I I know that you

want to attack it from a Josh Jacobs angle here, but are you concerned that

one or two offensive linemen might miss for the Packers? Yeah. Well, I am because that did carry

that does carry some weight here and last year offensive line was a wreck and that really made a for a lot of

inconsistency. You had players playing the wrong positions. We always want Elton Jenkins playing center whenever we

can. He’s utility everything guy. Hopefully, he doesn’t have to move, but if he can, he has to. Um but we know the

consistency gets there when that offensive line is together. So we’re gonna be we’re gonna be watching this one closely as it gets up closer to

kickoff. Yeah, I think that’s probably the the right approach there. Um Jaka Krosky Merritt looked great last week. Uh had

that big run, went more than 80 yards. You know, it was a promising start for him. The seventh rounder for Washington

after they traded Brian Robinson to the 49ers in the offseason. What do you think he does tonight?

Um I I’m I’m actually somewhat optimistic. He went through all of his carries. They’re only 10. And so I don’t

want to make it sound like I was, you know, that it was a big labor to break this down. 10 carries, 82 yards. Uh

here’s the thing that he does that’s really special for Jaori Krosky Merritt. He gets the ball and his when he’s got

to make an very quick decision about the way this play is setting up and the way his blocking is going, his vision and

footwork behind the line of scrimmage is remarkable. And then he’s got some jets. So the play he he gets the ball. He

needs to make a quick a quick change. The footwork is there for him and then the acceleration. He had a 40 yard gain

and he’s he’s breaking down the right side. Uh it’s not quite in the sideline. He’s off the sideline. He’s got one

safety left, Tyler Nuben, that he needs to beat. And he jked Tyler Nubin so hard

the Metife Stadium crew is still jackhammering his jock strap out of the field turf there. Oh, it was a great

great play by Bill. We that’s I’m I’m optimistic that he’s going to do well here and frankly Washington’s a little

easier to run on than they are to pass on. What do you want to do with these Packer wide receivers?

I want to avoid them all. This is setting up just like last year. Okay, now we know, you know, we all thought

that Matthew Golden was going to be a much bigger factor right away. Right. No Christian Watson. You got Jaden Reed

playing with a Jones fracture in his foot. He looked mostly unaffected, but we’ve seen Jones fractures, guys. You

know, guys have lost seasons on that. I don’t know how he played through that. His his pregame morphine drip must look

like Niagara Falls, but he only ran 12 routes and so I think they’re limiting him. Romeo Dobs barely ran half of the

routes uh half of the the play the passing plays. He ran routes in just half and he was the high water mark and

Matthew Golden was only on the field for 23 snaps. And I’m this thing feels like it’s setting up just like last year

and it’s super frustrating to try to figure out which guy is going to be on the field and part of the game plan from

week to week. really tough. And Washington was a shockingly good pass defense last year. Over their last 16

games going back to last year, they’ve only given up eight wide receiver scores. That’s it. They just locked down Malik Neighbors, who’s better than

anybody on the Packers just last week. Malik Neighbors turned 12 targets into five scoreless catches last week. So,

I’m down on all the wide receivers. Okay, let’s hit player props uh for this weekend coming up and maybe some fantasy

angles here as well. I was thinking about approaching Hunter Henry as a tight end um among my plays this week,

but you think Kahan Booty and his uh receiving yards prop is a little bit low.

Yep. We’re watching his shoulder injury. It’s not a little low, Mitch. It’s broken. This is This is a broken line.

He is 34 and a half yards is Kahan Booty’s overunder and he is the Patriots

number one receiving option. Unqualified. And you’re like, “Oh, what about Stefon Diggs?” Booty led Patriots

receivers in targets, snaps, routes, run ahead of digs. And Booty is such a great

story. If you don’t remember, and I don’t blame you if you don’t, he’s he was the kid that he was a five-star

recruit out of high school in Louisiana, could have gone to any program he wanted, decided to go to LSU. He’s at

LSU. He’s beating out Malik Neighbors. I mean, he’s like he’s the number one guy at LSU. He’s just he’s he is a true

phenom. But it goes to his head a little bit. He starts dealing with injuries. He’s got attitude problems and then the

knockout punch for Kahan Booty. He’s betting on Louisiana football and gets and he gets busted and he gets knocked

out of college football and he’s got to go to the pros too early. So he gets drafted by the Patriots at 20 years old.

Now he’s only 23. He’s the same age as a lot of rookies and he in his third year Kahan Booty is good. his last three

three of his last four games going back to last year 95 yards 117 yards and last

week 103 yards and this guy’s over under 34 and a half yards as the go-to

receiver and against the Dolphins. Yes, this is a Dolphins team with a stench of death on them. Mitch and Paulolly, do

you remember my visit in studio in July when we talked about how Miami’s got a pathway to be the first overall pick in

next year’s draft and the worst team and we talked about McDaniels is the worst as the first fired coach. All of that

stuff coming into focus here. Um, and they and the loss of Jay J uh Jaylen uh Ramsey in

the secondary is huge. Uh they’re going to have to play Rasul Douglas at starting quarterback for Miami. He was a

street fe free free agent two weeks ago. Over way over. Yeah, he was he was great

against the Raiders. Good breakdown. What do I do with 49er players now?

Well, okay. I mean, mostly we’re going to avoid uh that you know, M. Jones isn’t a death sentence. I mean, he’s

okay. He’s, you know, I don’t blame you if you haven’t you didn’t break down seven games of his tape with Jacksonville, but let me just tell you

it he averaged 0.8 touchdown passes per game. Um, but you know, he also put

Brian Thomas on a solid NFL start to his NFL career. So, not disaster stuff.

you’re gonna start Christian McCaffrey anyway. The guy that you care about is Ricky Purel. So, let’s just talk about him because he’s the only real swing guy

for the 49ers right now. Put up 108 yards last week. But here’s the thing

you need to know. And without George KD and Jawan Jennings banged up, he’s going to get a lot of attention. The average

pass attempt to Ricky Pierce saw last week, 21 yards. 21. Wow. If he’s going

to do that on like eight, nine, 10 pass attempts, we’re looking at potentially a still really good game from Persaw. And

he’s the guy that I I would be sure to start. Do you know like top of your head like what’s average for that? You said 21

yards for Pearl. Like what’s a good number? Nine. Nine yards is a nine yards is a typical wide receiver average average

distance of throw and Paw was at 21 last night. Wow. Okay. Uh that’s very good. Okay.

So, I think most of us as football fans were hoping and kind of rooting that Nick Chub was going to be 100% healthy

the entire year and take off and be like in the mix to win the comeback player of the year. What do you specifically make

of his matchup coming up on Monday night against Tampa Bay? His overunder is 49 and a half. We’re

going to go under even though Chub looked good last week and it was great to see him. He actually led all starting running backs with a 39% avoided tackle

rate last week. He finished sixth in yards over expectation. There’s clearly a mandate for the Houston to keep using

Nick Chub and you can drop all the rest of the Texans runners right now. But everything else I’m going to tell you is all bad about this matchup. First, the

Houston offensive line was already bad and it lost starting center Jake Andrews who got carded off with a high ankle

sprain. They’re also they’re using Ed Ingram at right guard who was hor he is

horrible and he’s hurt too. They actually have to go to somebody worse than him potentially. Houston last week

ranked 26th in ESPN’s run block win rate. And honestly, that’s generous. And here comes Tampa. A great run defense

last year that finished fourth best in rushing yards allowed, fourth best in rushing touchdowns allowed. And this

year in week one, they finished third best in ESPN’s run stuff win rate. They

just held Bjan Robinson to two yards per carry last week. And here’s here’s the

amazing thing on this. Why we’re going under on Nick Chup. Going back to last year, five straight Buck games, no

running back has topped 26 rushing yards. That’s it. It’s This is a great

run defense. And I I can’t advocate for Chubby, even though I was delighted to see him look good in that first game.

Wow. I never would have guessed that. Only 26 yards. One more under. Um JSN

went off in his first game with Sam Darnold against the 49ers. Great calls. Great call, buddy. So, what about the guy that’s going to

be playing like on the field with him at times? Cooper Cup this week. Cooper Cup. Yeah. Uh overunder is 30 and

a half. We’re going under against Pittsburgh. Just two catches for 15 yards last week. So, maybe this feels

obvious, but what I’m really I I I worry that Cup wants to play out of the slot

where he’s always been effective with the Rams. That’s also where Jackson Smith and Jigba likes to run, prefers to run from the slot. So, we still see we

saw Cub get enough work, but we saw some signs that I did not like. They kicked Cup outside for half his routes. We know

in LA he was not effective as an outside receiver. He dropped a pass last year.

He only dropped two all year and he already dropped a pass in week one. And when you’ve got worries about somebody’s age, these are little things that just

make you go, I don’t know about this. But here’s the real killer. Tough matchup in the slot with

Pittsburgh’s new quarterback, Jaylen Ramsay. Ramsay not normally a slot guy. With Pittsburgh making this trade, we

didn’t know for sure how they’d use him. They used him in slot coverage last week. And here’s what he gave up as a

slot quarterback. One catch, six yards, and had two pass breakups for Jaylen

Ramsey. Brutal matchup for Cooper Cup. So good. You’re the best. Paul Chartian

on X. Guillotinees.com is the website. Thanks, pal. Good luck tonight. Thanks, friends. Drew Butler on Georgia,

Tennessee, and

College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

Urban City Podcast Group — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 16:51:19 +0000

Major Takeaways:

Significant line movement in the Georgia-Tennessee game suggests sharp money may be coming in on Georgia, despite strong trends favoring the Volunteers as home underdogs.
Notre Dame is a strong play at home against Texas A&M, fueled by urgency after a season-opening loss and a profitable trend under coach Marcus Freeman following a bye week.
Vanderbilt is a live underdog with a strong chance to upset South Carolina outright, citing the Gamecocks’ deceptive 2-0 record and poor offensive performance against weak opponents

College Football Week 3 Betting Blitz: Sharp Picks for Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame, and More

Welcome to the Blitz. Free plays for week three of college football coming right up. If you’re watching us live

here on the Wage Talk YouTube channel, start firing off those questions right now. Any game you want to talk about, we

will be happy to oblige. Of course, we’re talking all the big games for sure. That means Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, USF, Miami, Florida, LSU,

Arkansas, Old Miss, and Vanderbilt, South Carolina. Here to help me break things down, Ralph Michaels and Ross

Benjamin. And great news for all of you. The three of us have decided we like each other so much that we are now the

permanent team here on the Blitz each and every week. So, it’s me, Ralph, and Ross every Thursday live here at 1 p.m.

on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. Ross, I’m going to go to you first here for Georgia and Tennessee. This is a

situation where we have seen significant line movement. We did see significant line movement early in the week. Number

dropped from Georgia 6 down to Georgia 3 and a half. I will tell everyone whether

this is true or not remains to be seen. However, a little birdie has indicated to me that we are going to see some

sharp money come in on Georgia in the next 24 hours or so. Ross, how are you

looking at this allimportant SEC matchup? Well, I mean, look, whether the sharp

money comes in on Georgia or not, um the line moved from six to three and a half,

right? And um I would say that that’s not public money. So

might be split here and uh the little birdie in the room that you heard from, I respect your opinion on that. But

look, here’s the thing. Tennessee’s 24-1 in their last 25 in Knoxville. Uh and

that includes in in 20 games against FBS opponents going 19 and or 21 games

against FBS opponents going 20- one and 14-7 against the spread. Ironically

enough, their only loss in that sequence came to Georgia. I just think this is a Tennessee team uh that’s built uh to

make a national title run this year. I mean, they they can move the ball offensively. I like their transfer

quarterback. Uh their defense we know is experienced and very good. Georgia to

me, I mean, especially last week when I look at their game last week against Austin P, they win 28-6. I think they

could be had, especially early in the season. So, I’m gonna have a small lean toward Tennessee here. And uh if Brian’s

right, maybe you’re better off waiting near game time where you in or over the next 24 hours like he said and you’ll

get a better number. But even at three and a half, I like Tennessee in the spot. Okay. I was doing this, Ross, not

because of your anything with to do with your breakdown. It was because Georgia, I think, could be accused the last two

weeks of perhaps a little sleepwalking to their first two opponents. They knew they weren’t going to be tested by Marshall and Austin P. But Tennessee

certainly, Ralph, a different story uh in a big bad SEC opponent. Nobody

is more keenly aware of the trends than you. Uh Georgia, let’s talk about the rivalry here. Uh Ross mentioned a

previous Georgia victory here in Knoxville. Well, last eight meetings overall, Georgia 8-0 straight up.

They’ve won those eight games by an average of 25 points per game. Now, some of those were when the Tennessee program was down, but Georgia’s covered the

spread in seven of those eight wins as well. What do you think? Does that history play into your handicap here at

all for Saturday? Well, you know, Brian, let me go back to your little uh your little statement.

Not only is Georgia 0 and2 maybe sleepwalking this year, Georgia is 1 and

11 against the spread their last 12 games as a favorite. Period. It doesn’t matter who they play as a favorite.

They’re one and 11. You know what that is? That is 8%. Now, this was an interesting trend and I

said, “How much does this really apply?” Because we’re only two games into the new season, but I looked and early in

the season this has been successful. Home dogs that have won at least seven

straight home games, obviously you can carry over a season, are 66 and 41, 62%

against the spread. And conference home dogs in that role are 64%.

Georgia, by the way, as an away favorite only 3-8 ATS their last 11. When I

looked at top 20 home dogs, they’ve gone

23 and 18, 56% against the spread. If they’re in the first two months of the

season, they’ve gone 60% against the spread. And if they’re a conference home

dog, they are 73% against the spread. So that is two top 20 teams, a conference

home dog, 73% ATS. And if you are one that bets money on the bets the money

line and you like Tennessee, listen to this stat and think about it for a minute

conference away dog, excuse me. In those 11 in those 22 games,

the straight up the dog is 111 straight up with an average line of plus 5.8. So

that means if you bet those 22 games, if you’re plus 5.8, 8. That translates to a

what minus minus 250 money line. 11 of

those 22 teams have won outright. I lean Tennessee. I’m concerned Georgia’s

offense, even though they sleptwalked, you still should do better than averaging 5.1 yards per carry against

Marshall and against Austin Pay. Uh I’m going to side with Ross here and back

the Volunteers as well. Okay. I’m gonna say Brian, I’m seeing a four and a half at

FanDuel as well. So, it’s three and a half across the board and four and a half at uh FanDuel. So,

okay. If you like Tennessee, that’s the place to go. FanDuel, I think the line is um going to, like I said, if you like

Georgia right now, uh I I think that you should bet them now because I think that I think it’s going to go to four and a

half pretty much across the board soon. Something we need to point out, two the top two the starting quarterbacks for

Tennessee are out of this game. So that’s something to watch again. The Georgia offense, which Ralph mentioned, has struggled has kind of, you know,

whatever the first two weeks, then they wake up and they take advantage of that. All right, next game on the list should

be a good one. Saturday night, it is Texas&M and game. Open the season

against one another uh last year. I had the first half under in that game. That was a winner. Uh I kind of like the over

though this year. Ross, uh what do you think here before the season? I did a special edition of the power five. I

said gave out some win totals. I said bet&m over eight and a half at plus 150. If they win Saturday night, I’m d I

think I’m dancing in the streets with that win total. I think that’s going to be looking pretty good. Uh but here’s

the problem. They’re two and 13 against the number under Elco, including 0 and2 this season. And they’re an underdog in

South. Yeah. I mean, and you look at Texas A&M, they’ve had struggles on the road the

last few seasons. Uh Notre Dame coming off that heartbreaking loss against Miami of Florida. They did have a byee

last week. Texas A&M, although they’re two and 0. I I’m just I They haven’t wowed me when I watched them. They beat

UTSA. Um and they also beat uh help me out guys the other game.

Yeah. So, I mean, it’s not like they won by 22 or 21 points in each game. Uh but

it they didn’t come clo close to covering and the opposition moved the ball on him. And Notre Dame here, keep

this in mind. Um under Marcus Freeman, they’re five and0 five-0 straight up in

ATS coming off a buy during regular season action. Uh 6-0 straight up in ATS

coming off a loss in their last six under Marcus Freeman. So remember Marcus

Freeman got off to a terrible start at Notre Dame losing his first two games and I think he’s somewhere around 33

and8 since then. Um and the Irish coming off a loss playing in their home opener

and uh unlike Texas A&M who could really if they lose a game they’re still alive.

Uh you’d be hardressed to make a a case for Notre Dame if they start out 0 and2 here as having any kind of decent chance

to make the college football playoff. So, I think the urgency lies with Notre Dame here, and I’m willing to lay a six

and a half at home against the Aaggies. Oh, all right. Ralph, I mentioned Elco

struggles at the old pay window. Marcus Freeman, Ross referenced it. He’s been quite good. He’s been quite profitable

back, uh, even though Notre Dame did drop that season opener as a road favorite down in Coral Gables. How are

you looking at this game? So, has&m been tested? Obviously not. They haven’t played one of the worst

schedules in the country, but it’s been pretty bad. And I found this very interesting, guys. There’s times that

even when I run data that I’m completely shocked. I ran the query, guys, that

says, “What happens in game three if you were a home favorite of 21 points or

more and you won each of those games by at least double digits and now you’re an

away dog?” It hasn’t happened very much, but those away dogs since 2016 are

actually 62% against the spread. So, I was going to say this. I think&m is an overrated 2-0 team based on who they

played. You know, yes, they have a dynamic offense with a couple incredible wide receivers. You know, Carver has

been amazing. Conpsion has been great. It it really allows Marcel Reed to

stretch the field. I do like Notre Dame’s defense, though. Yes, they

allowed 324 yards, but remember this is 324 yards to a Miami team that was one

of the top offensive teams that had a quarterback that was a transfer from Georgia. They were on the road in that

situation. So, I don’t think at the end of the year, I think that 324 yards that Notre Dame allowed is going to be an

actual positive number versus right now into the break it looks like a negative.

Uh, I did look up two other things that I wanted to share with you. Teams

off a ranked loss. So you were ranked opponent and you lost and now you have a

buy on de and you are off a buy. Those teams are only 49% at home. So it

doesn’t it doesn’t it doesn’t not a positive, not a negative, but I still want to share that data with you. So if

you have those type of thoughts, you know what the results are. But when that team is off a ranked loss game and they

had a buy, they are 70% to the under the last 36 games, 11 overs and 25 unders.

And that’s where I’m going to go here. Big game, national TV. I like these

teams having to feel each other out. I’m gonna go under first half in this. And

it’s actually one of my top three plays from the games we’re going to talk about. under first half, Notre Dame,

Texas A&M. Okay, there you go. Of course, guys, here each and every week of the Blitz, we’ve got you covered with the biggest

games on Saturday, but we also will leave no stone unturned. If you’re watching live, you can ask us about any

game you want to hear about, and many are doing that right now in the chat. I’m going to go to uh a question from

Adam because he wants to know about Georgia Tech and Clemson. I’m going to this game right now, Ross, because the

line movement, it’s a very similar story to what we talked about earlier just a few moments ago in the Georgia Tennessee

game. The market decided this number was too high at the open and money came in on the dog. We know Brent P at Georgia

Tech has been fantastic as an underdog. I believe they’ve covered six straight

at home against ranked opponents. I’m going to look that up in a minute after you’re done breaking this down. Maybe Ralph also has that one handy. But

Georgia Tech’s been very live in the home underdog role against top teams under key. What do you think? Clemson’s

not looked good at all the first two need to me. Yeah, they had to come back from a 16-

nothing deficit against Troy last week to win 2716.

They did have a strong second half. Maybe they can carry that momentum over. But, you know, I was high on Georgia

Tech to start the season. Although they just went seven and six a year ago, they were my pick to win the ACC at plus 700.

And this certainly, if I’m thinking Georgia Tech‘s going to win the ACC, they’re real live for me right here. Um,

and you’re looking at a Georgia Tech team, uh, that, you know, look, they didn’t even play with Hannes Hannes

King, their quarterback, who I think’s the best quarterback in the ACC when healthy. Um, and I know I’m going to get

a lot of argument there. Uh but having said that, he didn’t even play last week and they put up monster offensive

numbers. They were very good in their season opening win against Colorado 27

to 20. They were pretty much in control of that game from start to finish. Although it was just a sevenpoint

difference. Um and uh Hannes King uh again if he’s healthy this week uh I

like Georgia Tech even more. If he’s not, I still like Georgia Tech. I think Georgia Tech wins this game outright. Uh

Clemson again uh losing to LSU at home 17-10 and listless last week and now

they go on the road for the first time. Uh this is a huge game for Georgia Tech and I think they’ll be prepared and

ready uh to get the cover here at home. Yeah. And Ross, something else that the folks need to remember in case they

didn’t watch that game or had forgotten about at the Georgia Tech season opener against Colorado, Georgia Tech should have won that game by more because they

turned the ball over on their first three possessions. If they don’t to to turn the ball over three times and still

win, that says something. If you could because usually if if you if you turn the ball over three times, you’re not winning a football game. Georgia Tech

did against coach Prime and Colorado there in the opener. Ralph, I have do

have the trends right now in front of me. Under key Georgia Tech 9 and5 ATS against ranked opponents. They are a

perfect 646 as a conference dog of single digits.

in Miami last year. So, uh, will Mr. Key and those trends continue here, uh, on

Saturday? It’s a noon kickoff against Clemson. If Haynes King was 100% healthy and he practiced this entire week, I would have

been on Georgia Tech. Uh, he’s been limited in practice. They do expect him to play, but to me, I’m going to lay off

this. I do probably have some uh some fire starter in a uh Clemson National

Championship ticket that I bet. So, yeah. No, no team has been uh uh again,

losing to LSU is not a bad loss, but again, just just the vibes you get from this team after the Troy game. You know,

Troy may be better than we expect, and I like the way Troy’s played, but when you rush for 3.9 yards against Troy at home,

running the ball 31 times, only gaining 121 yards, that’s a concern for me. Can

the Georgia Tech defense stop them? Well, you know, they held Colorado to 305, but we know Colorado has their

struggles, and what do they say? Uh, if you have two quarterbacks playing, you don’t have a legitimate starter. Well,

how about if you have three, you know? So, you know, Colorado has their issues. The Gardener web game, obviously, Ross

had mentioned. To me, it’s Georgia Tech and the under. Not going to make my card with not being 100% positive on King.

Okay. Uh, we’ve got a lot of questions coming in on this Arkansas Miss game.

That game was in our rundown anyway. So, let’s go to it here. I see uh the main man Jay Buff. Thank you for the shout

out on my hair. I appreciate that. I, you know, always try to look my best here on the You sure? You sure it wasn’t me he was

talking about? Oh, I’m sorry. I apologize there. Okay. But, all right. So, Jaybuff, he really

likes uh these are actually two games that are on our rundown, guys. So, let’s uh we can hit them both. Arkansas, Old

Miss, Vandy, South Carolina. Couple games in the SEC. Yes, that SEC slate uh

getting underway. LSU Florida, too, by the way. We’ll be talking about that game. If you have a question, hit us up. But uh Ross, let’s go to Vandy, South

Carolina. I know you had a lot to say about this game elsewhere here uh this week on the Wager Talk YouTube channel.

Yeah, I mean, this game looks like a trap to me. You know, you’re looking at a number 11 ranked team in South

Carolina. And they’re just what, a three and a half point home favorite here or

four and a half, whatever they are, against an unranked Vanderbilt team who only got one vote, one vote in the AP

poll this week, you know, and that I got to scratch my head because right now to me when I look at these two teams and I

look at film on both of them, Vandy to me is the better team. I mean, South

Carolina 2 and 0. Deceiving. Why do I say that? They won 38-10 last week,

Ralph, over South Carolina State. But guess what? They scored three touchdowns by way of a punt return, a block punt,

and a fumble return. They only compiled 253 yards of total offense against an

FCS opponent. And and their week before they won against Virginia Tech 24 to11.

We now know that Virginia Tech is not a very good team and they benefited from a

punt return touchdown in that game as well and still uh did very little offensively. I mean they had all this

hype with uh Sellers at quarterback and they haven’t shown me squat offensively

in the first two games. Uh you look at Vanderbilt uh won last week 4420.

Uh they had a huge total yards advantage of 490 to 248. Um in against Virginia

Tech, a common opponent, same play team that South Carolina faced on a neutral

field. Vanderbilt went to Virginia Tech on the road and that game wasn’t even as

close as the final score may indicate. Uh that that’s how much Vanderbilt dominated that game. And uh look, here’s

the thing. They’ve lost 16 straight versus South Carolina over the last 16

meetings. You think that’s not big- time revenge? Because this is to me a much

improved program. Uh I like Diego Pavia at quarterback. Is he an NFL ready

quarterback? Not even close. He may make it in this uh Canadian Football League, but he’s not an NFL type of talent.

However, he’s a winner. Okay, he’s a winner. He knows how to get things done

at the proper time. And uh college football away underdogs of four and a half or less like Vanderbilt that are

coming off an away underdog upset win in which they scored 41 points or more. And

they’re facing a team like South Carolina who’s coming off a win resulted in those away underdogs going 9 and0

against the spread since 2003. Not only that, Ralph, those underdogs not only

covered all nine, they won eight of those nine games straight up. Give me the Vanderbilt Commodores, guys.

Oh, wow. Ross, he’s got a lot to say. I agree with you, Ross. I don’t know if Diego Pavia is a future Winnipeg blue

bomber or not, but I will take it a step further what you had to say about South Carolina. Right now, guys, there are

three teams. the AP top 25 poll. And I know there was a lot of controversy about that AP top 25 poll during the

week on social media. There are three teams that I think are wildly overrated. We can all write this down right now and

you can come back. If I’m wrong, you can make fun of me in the comments section or if you’re I’m right, then you can all tell me how great I am. South Carolina,

Iowa State, Illinois, all overrated in my opinion. I don’t think any of those

three teams end up to uh in the top 25 when the regular season is over. So, I

am with you, Ross. I think Vandy is live to go to Columbia here and pull the

outright upset. Ralph, do we make it three for three? Beating Kansas State and beating beating

Iowa is enough for me to get him in there. So, yes, uh, in that case, I totally agree with the other two. And,

you know, it’s not just the AP that’s a joke. And that’s why you can never look at ranked teams early in the season

because all they’re doing is basing on what happened last year. And if they win, they move up. they lose, they move

down. You know, I remember the, you know, when the UPI used to be big, that was the coaches poll. I remember

listening to Urban Meyer talk all the time and said, “I don’t even fill out my ballot. I don’t even see my ballot. I

give it to an assistant. He fills it in. He sends it in for me.” So, do not put stock in those. They are a joke. Um, you

know, there’s not there’s no reason for me to say anything, guys. I agree with Vanderbilt. The way they’ve played, they

should be there. I see South Carolina not being there. I think Vanderbilt is

the play, but I do like this, especially in the SEC. We see a team like

Vanderbilt who scored 45 against S Charleston Southern and uh and 42 against VTEC. When you’re scoring a lot

of points against weak non-conference foes and then you play your first conference opponent, your game plan

changes a ton. And even with that, Vanderbilt ran the ball 68 times in two

games, only passed the ball 48. They’re going to run the ball. South Carolina’s going to run the ball. They’ve ran for

73 times and only passed for 39 their first two games. I’m going to go first half under here again, guys. I know it

sounds like a broken record, but agree with the Vanderbilt side. First half under as well. Okay, there we go. Uh,

let’s stick in the SEC because, guys, the questions are rolling in in the chat. Jacob Hefner would like to know

what’s up with the line movement in Miss Arkansas. I was bummed to get the worst

of the number laying it with Miss. Ross, your thoughts on this one? My initial

thought was maybe to look at an over Arkansas. Uh they’ve put up some big numbers in the first two games. I

believe they’re top five in yards per play, points per game, yards per game, but look at who they played. It’s not exactly a uh a murders a rogue a murders

row of two first two opponents and then miss has a potential injury issue at quarterback. So interesting game here in

the SEC. Another one. Yeah, it it’s a game that I looked at up and down and uh couldn’t come up with a

decisive decision either way. U as far as that move goes on the line move. I I

think that Old Miss and I I’d be interested in hearing what you guys have to say. I think they’re a tad bit

overrated. I really do. Um they barely got by Kentucky last week on the road and Kucky’s not a very good team. I know

Kentucky beat them last year, but again they struggled to win that game and uh I

I I just don’t have a strong opinion here to offer uh the viewer uh in his

question. Maybe Ralph or Brian does. Ralph lines down to seven. Commenter

asked about the question there or about the asked about the line movement. Uh

any angle for you here on this one? It is I I would concur that miss a little overrated. Lane Keifin had to apologize

to the betters last week after the game uh when he gave up that late field goal not to cover the spread. And again, they only rush for 4.6 yards

per carry. That’s not a Lane Keifin team. They usually press that pace early in the season and do that. I do want to

comment, Brian. I I didn’t hear the the name of the person who left the note,

but my advice to you is this. If you like a game and a game has moved

two or three points, just don’t bet it. It’s okay. Don’t The worst thing to say is, “Oh my god, I took the worst of this

line.” There’s reasons you don’t bet games. And that’s one of them is because of a line move. So don’t fall in the

trap that you have to bet that game. If you got the worst of it, if it doesn’t come back, let it go and look how much

you save at the end of the year. Write down every win, write down every loss, and remember, for every dollar you save,

you’re saving an extra 10% juice. Um, I’m going to say that I actually think

Arkansas’s offense can move the ball here. I think they will be able to run against an Old Miss defense. So, if I

again, no real lean on the game here. I like Arkansas team total. So, if

anything, it’s a very light lean for me, but obviously if I like the Arkansas team total, that means I think they’re

going to get 30 points. So, that means they’re likely going to cover this game. So, by default, it puts me on the

Arkansas lean side. Ralph, with some very sage advice there, guys, about uh when you miss the best of

a number. Speaking of sage advice, the place to go, of course, is wageralk.com. And boy, do we have a special promotion

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Michaels to talk about what he’s got going on this weekend before we get some more of your questions. I see the one

about Troy in Memphis. That’ll be up next. Uh, Brian, I am with you with an NFL 5%

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That is, as Ross mentioned earlier, a real value, a steal, dare I say. All right, let’s talk about this game here.

Adam wants to know about Memphis and Troy. You mentioned Clemson earlier.

Clemson played Troy last week. Troy was beating Clemson 16 to nothing. And Ross, they were probably feeling pretty good

about themselves, weren’t they, down in Troy, but they of course lost 27 to 16. So Adam’s question is, uh, do we like

Memphis to dominate Troy after that emotional roller coaster last week, or is Troy just getting going?

You know, Troy might be just that good. uh for a a Sunb Belt team and Memphis uh

was a favorite trendy pick I should say for a lot of people to come out of the group of five and they still may. Uh but

this looks like a tricky one to me guys. You know, I think Troy, if you look at how they played defensively against

Clemson last week, they just wore down because Clemson had more uh quality

depth uh in that game. And uh I think a lot of people are jumping aboard the

Troy bandwagon this week and that line moved from six to three and a half. Uh

again, that might be some sharp money because it came in early or might be an overreaction to what we saw in week one,

but this game is not going to get any of my money, Brian. And uh I I’d like to give uh Adam a definitive answer, but uh

I just think there’s more value to be found on the College Football on Saturday. Yeah, if you like Troy,

unfortunately you did miss the best of the number there. U Memphis Ralph, very interesting. They the final score says

they dominated their FCS opponent Chattanooga last week 45 to have a pick six though in that game. I always think

that’s important to note. Uh Ross earlier in talking about that South Carolina the first week talked about all

their non-offensive scores. So uh what do we think is Troy for real or is this a tough spot? You know, you’re up on a

team like Clemson 16 nothing. You think it’s going to be one of the big defining wins in program history and then you get kind of boat raised in the second half.

What do you have left emotionally in the tank because Memphis uh as Ross mentioned is one of the legit contenders

to nab that G5 playoff spot? Mentioned Brian, you mentioned the pick six. More importantly, they went to

Georgia State as that solid favorite. They only had a 401 to 389 yard edge. They were only a plus 12 yards overall.

So, I mean, that’s a very misleading final. They allowed 340 yards passing. Troy is a team that I really like this

year. Why? Because we have secondyear head coach Gerard Parker. Think about

Troy last year. They started the season 1 and eight. What do they do? They beat Coastal Carolina. They go to Georgia

Southern. They win. They lose that UL. Not a bad loss. Then they beat Southern Miss. Now you have a team in their

second year as a head coach. I think it’s easy to rally in your second year.

a coach that won four of the last five four three of the last four games after starting one and eight coming off and

winning uh the opener and then playing that well against Clemson. To me, I am sold on Troy at least for the next

couple weeks. We’ll see what happens. All right, there you go. Memphis and Troy. Hopefully that helped you there a

little bit. Uh we’re going to now go back to our rundown. We’re going to leave the chat for a little bit. Keep those questions coming, guys. Uh we are

going to be hitting LSU and Florida. Very big weekend in the SEC. Uh, but what other games do you want to know

about? There’s a just a random game you have a question about. You’re watching us right now live. Drop that question in

the chat. We will get to it. But I want to get to a very You talk about G5 contenders for that playoff spot. Ross,

I think you have to be talking about the USF Bulls right now who have beaten Boise State and they have beaten

Florida. Now they face Miami of Florida. Needless to say, now

as impressive as the non-con has been here so far for the Bulls that to get that playoff spot, they need to win the

American and that’s, you know, several months down the line. But, uh, I’ve got a a question for you here.

True or false? Does USF care more about winning this game or just keeping it

close? Because here’s the thing. If they can in fact win their conference down

the line and they just simply keep this game close against Miami, then yeah,

it’s going to be impossible to keep them out of the college football playoff uh come December. So, I asked that to you

because they’re getting a big number here. And if they’re down 20 late, I think they really care about

punching it in a touchdown and which would obviously get them under the number here because I think they want

the committee at the end of the season to look back and say, “Hey, USF only lost by such and such to Miami, or am I

crazy or am I overthinking things?” Yeah. No. Uh, you make good points. Uh,

but I do think that a team that knocks off a nationally ranked team at the time, Boise State, and then another

nationally ranked team at Florida, uh, is not going to just hope they’re keeping it close. You know, they they

really I I truly believe they believe they could win this game. And, um, talk

about a group of five contender right now, uh, to get to the playoffs. Whoever wins that American to me is going to be

the group of five contender. I mean, that’s a better conference than people realize right now. Navyy’s also pretty

good, although they lack the uh overall depth and quality depth and defense as

uh some of the top contenders in that conference do. Uh but, um here’s what

scares me, Brian. Miami of Florida, they’re not going to catch them by surprise. Okay? Uh they’re not going to

be Miami of Florida is not going to take this game lightly. Miami of Florida is not going to waste a win over Notre Dame

in their season opener. They’re a very talented team. And it also strikes me

that this game opened at 15 and a half and very quickly, very quickly, right

after it opened, shot up to 17. Sharp money to me. Um, if I I’m not going to

use this game. Um, I do like the points you make, Brian, but I I I truly believe

that South Florida wants to win this game and believes they could. Now, wanting to do so, uh, and doing it are

two different things. I have a slight slight lean, Ralph, toward Miami here,

uh, because of that early line move. just, you know, you would think that a double-digit underdog that just pulled

off two upsets in a row against quality competition and people would jump all

over that, but that wasn’t the case. And to me, that move is sharp money. That’s

not public money. So, I think Miami, there’s no way that Miami wants to uh

contend for a national championship and lose to their little brother in South

Florida. And that’s basically how they look at things. So, uh, it’s it’s a tough call, but if I you put the

proverbial gun to my head, I would lay the points with Miami. Okay. What do you say, Ralph? It’s the third straight week facing a ranked

opponent for USF. Well, you know, Brian, I was on USF against Boise. We talked about Byron

Brown, how good he was before he got injured and he came back and he looks to be the same player. But um when you

asked your question about do they want to keep it close, there’s no other game on the board more

than this one that sets it up for a back door cover. USF has South Carolina State

at home on deck, followed by Charlotte at deck. Miami has big brother Florida at home

and then they go to Florida State, the other instate rival. So you’re talking about them. They How many times do you

play four instate teams in a row? Bthoon, Cookman, USF, Florida, and Florida State. So to me, the situation

clearly screams USF with no one on deck. I could see Florida resting some starters before they host Florida next

week if they’re up by that formentioned, you said three or four touchdowns into the fourth quarter. I actually was close

to using USF, but again, trends are either to help you make a bet or to keep

you off a bet. And these trends are keeping me off USF. So guys, I’m gonna

put you on the spot real quick. I need a real quick answer from you. How many times since 2008, so we’re talking what,

16 years, has a college football team won back-to-back games as a dog? It sounds

easy, the first two games of the season as a dog. I was shocked how low this number was.

Yeah. Um, I would have thought that it would be not real though, but um, now

that you mentioned that, Ralph engage, I’d love to play poker with you because you just showed your hand for crying out

loud. I’ve seen 14 14 teams 14 teams

since 2008 have went back-to-back games as a dog. Next week, they’ve gone six and seven. But then I went and did this.

How many teams were an away dog and one as a dog of

three or more? and then one as a dog of 14 or more like USF did. So, back-to-back wins any time in the

season, not through the first weeks of the season. The next game, it’s only happened uh 30 times since 2018. The

next week, they are 9 and 21 against the spread, that is 30%. And if they’re a double- digit dog, they are 2 and4

against the spread. So, some serious numbers for teams playing that third straight underdog role. And

while I like USF and I would still give out USF as an opinion, this is a

situation where those trends to me that make total sense are keeping me off this game.

Okay, so there you go. Battle of Florida there uh a little bit uh for both sides. And remember Ross, I think we mentioned

this Ralph, too. The first time we talked about Miami, I believe is when we were breaking on that Miami Northern

name game. there three of us gets late and the game is close, Mario Crystal

Ball will often do the wrong thing. So, we also have to college that certainly. All right. Uh guys, we uh there there’s

some weekday college football action of course this week. We’ve got a question from Colin Gregory on a f little Friday

night lights here. Coach Prime in Colorado. They’re going uh looks like they’ve made a quarterback decision

there. They’re going with the guy who was the original third stringer against a Houston team that I bet over six and a half wins uh to go uh before the start

of the season. I thought this Houston team was going to be improved in a wideopen Big 12. I expect Houston to win

this game at home Friday night. Ross, am I crazy?

No, you’re not crazy. Uh and again, this is a tough call for me. I mean, this game opened with Houston minus four,

quickly moved to six, and now there’s been a lot of buyback, Brian. I mean, down to four and a half pretty much

across the board uh in this game. and and yeah, I mean, I looked at this line

and it jumped right out at me and I it also jumped right out at me was the early move because initially my my

initial thought was Colorado might be a nice dog in this spot, but with the quarterback change and uh it’s not like

Colorado has looked very impressive to start the season. This isn’t the Colorado team from a season ago. Um

they’re talented, but not quite as talented as that team. And uh yeah, I would have a lean toward Houston in this

spot and agree with you, Brian. Yeah, it’s Ryan Stal getting the start for Colorado. We mentioned earlier when

we were talking about the Colorado Georgia Tech game uh that opened the season, uh Ross, Colorado could not beat

Georgia Tech despite that lopsided turnover margin. That doesn’t speak well of them. Now it’s a different quarterback getting the uh start here.

But Houston, Ralph H quite even last year when this team struggled, Houston

has a very solid defense and I like the coaching staff. I don’t know. I think this is a team on the ascent uh in the

Big 12. Have a secondear head coach in Willie

Fritz, you know, coming back and we’ve seen the Houston improvement and I’m a big fan of that. You know, second and

third year head coaches that continue to show the improvement with their squads. Um, I’m going to make it simple. You

know, this Colorado team doesn’t rely on the pass because they don’t have a quarterback like Shadore. But let me let

me The last two road games, the first two road games of last year with Shadore. At Nebraska, they threw for 40

times, ran 16. Against Colorado State, they threw the ball 49 times and ran 19.

Now, when you look against Georgia Tech, they ran the ball more than they passed. So, this is a Colorado team whose

offense is going to be completely different this year, is not going to be as dynamic, is going to run fewer plays,

is going to have a massive runto pass ratio, or at least a runheavy pass ratio

completely compared to last year, and I do like the Houston defense as well. Houston and the under for me.

Okay. Uh, looking at the chat here, Lucky Larry asked about the Notre Dame Texas. Yes, we did talk about this one

uh earlier, Larry. Uh maybe if we’ve got some time at the end, we’ll come back to it. Some quick thoughts. Nice time for me to remind you guys, click that

subscribe button down below. That way you’ll be instantly notified when the show goes live each and every Thursday

at 1 p.m. Eastern. But if we do have some time, Larry, we can just kind of do a a cliffnotes version of our thoughts on Notre Dame and Texas A&M. But I want

to get to another game here that Godfather J6 asked about. This is uh Bama and

Wisconsin. Alabama. I’ll tell you what, Ross. Uh Luke Fickle

uh he needs to get uh in gear otherwise it uh he may be uh selling his home in

Madison because this Wisconsin offense looks absolutely atrocious. Now Kayn

Dbor, everyone was ready to ride this guy out of town in Tuscaloosa, including that woman who uh I don’t know if you

guys saw this clip on social media. She said if she won the Alabama state lottery, the first thing she would do with her money was pay the buyout for

Kayn Dbor and run him out of town. I think that is an interesting use of winning the lottery. But I digress. Uh

Alabama killed LA Monroe last week. What do we think Alabama does here against

Wisconsin? They killed him last year. I remember watching that game. Uh maybe I don’t know. We liked Alabama Ross at the

start of the season. Then they go out and they lose to Florida State who might actually be a very very good team. So uh

kind of an interesting evaluation of the Crimson Tide right now where they’re at. this guy’s got to be related to me with

a a you know a handle named Godfather. You know it’s again I thought that Alabama woman’s going to take all the

money if she won the lottery and hire Ralph Michaels as a head coach at Alabama because uh anyway uh on a

serious note I think Wisconsin’s a very deceiving 2 and 0. They don’t don’t have

a lot coming back from a season ago. Uh Luke Fickle to me has not been getting

the job done at Wisconsin. It’s tough to get the NIL money there. And I think

Alabama, everybody threw them under the bus after that season opening loss uh to

Florida State. But maybe Florida State is just that damn good, Ralph. You know,

uh I my lean here is definitely the way the Crimson tied. I think they’re they

cover the spread by the half and then win going away. Um, I just don’t think Wisconsin has that type of offense. They

never had under Luke Fickle, uh, where they’re built to come from behind. So, I

think it could snowball on them very easily if they fall behind, uh, quickly

and I think that’s what will occur and I like Alabama to win big here. Yeah, the Wisconsin defense, is that

okay, Ralph? Obviously, they’ve played some some weak teams. Miami of Ohio. My god, they’re turn turn your eyes away

when they’re on offense, everybody. But uh the offense again for Wisconsin has

not been up to snuff and I concur with Ross the boss there that if Wisconsin falls behind I I don’t know

how they come from behind. So you’ve been giving out a few first half thoughts so far on the program. Ralph,

is this a situation where you would lay it with Alabama in the first half or how would you approach this game?

We remember they were the run of the century. I mean couple years ago, what did they go 14-1 on first halves again?

new head new head coach Kaylin Dbor and you know you might think well Bama has

George on deck but again there’s a by-week on deck so it’s not quite the same situation I think Bama uses this as

a as a prep game to show Georgia I think they’re going to try running the ball um

I am not impressed again I agree with what Ross said and what you said Brian that the Florida State loss may be a

fine loss in a couple more weeks I mean they were only outgainained 382 to 341 yes they lost lost by 14 the way the

game played out. But you can’t overreact to those week one games. Um I think I I

think Alabama is going to try to run the ball. I don’t think they need to pass it much. I think they need to work on that.

I think that Wisconsin’s rush D has always been decent. I don’t know how they’re going to fare here. Again,

holding Miami to 1.5 and Middle Tennessee to 1.2 2 doesn’t show you anything, but I actually like uh if I

had to play here, I would play this actually full game total because if they have some trick plays, Wisconsin might

try to use them early. You know, Fickle came out and said, um,

we have this Alabama game circled all summer long. Who the heck circles a road

game against a non-conference foe? I’ve never heard that of a Big 10 coach to even waste his time saying that. So

maybe he does have some sort of scheme that he’s going to try some fluke things early and they didn’t shoot. Maybe and

again maybe since they won 17 nothing and 42 to 10. Maybe we just think

Wisconsin’s offense is bad because he’s hitting the playbook until he starts to play Alabama. That’s a possibility.

That’s something we don’t know. I think the points are too high for Alabama on the road in this situation. But again, I

don’t want to be on Wisconsin either. But call me a pass on this one.

Okay. Uh something else we need to note here. You know, we talk about the Wisconsin offensive from Billy Edwards Jr. uh doesn’t sound like he’s going to

play in this game. So the task got a little bit tougher for Luke Fickle and

the team. Hey Brian, just to corre I mean again was an oversight by Ralph, but Alabama’s

at home in this game, Ralph, not on the road. My apologies. Thank you. That’s called Ross was making fun of my age before the

show started, guys. the green. Yeah, I I thought you were going to tell me that you Monroe had their game schedu

or circled against Yeah, good. Good catch there, Ross. Um,

all right. There the the SEC seems to be the theme here. We’ve talked about Alabama, obviously, whether or not they

can still be a force in this conference. Remains to be seen, but we’re going to learn something here uh in the SEC

Saturday night when this is the final game on our scheduled rundown. Guys, of course, we always are going to talk about the big games each and every week

here on the Blitz. If there’s a game that we have not mentioned that you want our opinion on, you only have a few

minutes left to get those questions in, guys. So, do that right now if you’re watching live in the chat. But we’re going to go to LSU and Florida.

Ross, is there some It’s interesting. There’s ways to look at there’s different ways to look at this, right?

Florida bad loss to South Florida last week. Look, you should never spit on

opponent. Obviously, the fact that you would do it a couple days after it made national headlines in an NFL game was really stupid, I thought. Then it cost

your game boy. It cost you the game. Florida and Ross said, you know, I’m going to do it again here. The seat, it’s getting a little hot in Gainesville

for uh down there because if Florida loses here and then as Ralph mentions uh

mentioned earlier, they’ve got Miami, Florida, Billy Napier might have to get that indeed.com uh

resume open again. Okay. Is there any way Napier survives to October the 1st at LSU, at Miami of

Florida, home against Texas, at Texas A&M? No chance. That is not an easy schedule. No, no chance he is around after October

1st. Well, if he pulls an upset here, Ross, I guess, you know, he could have some job

security for the time being. What do you think? Because to me, when I look at a team like Florida, who no one was expecting to lose last week to us, they

were a double- digit favorite. Obviously, look, we we respect USF on the program. We talked about that earlier, but people thought Florida was

going to win that game. To me, my opinion is always there’s some value now on the underdog. That’s what the market

seems. The market thinks this number opened a little bit too high. And as impressive as LSU looked against Clemson

in the opener, boy, did they just sleepwalk their way to a win over Louisiana Tech last week. Hey, Ross, let me jump in here and I’m

going to give people an angle and then I’m going to have them think of the angle after you get done. I’ll share the angle with them. So, Brian, this is sort

of something without you telling me this. What’s the ATS record for teams

after they lost as a home favorite of 14 or more? I’ll get you those ATS numbers

after Ross finishes his breakdown. Okay. Yeah. And I can almost assure you that Ralph is going to come up with an angle

that supports the underdog because I do same type of technical handicapping. And

I don’t mean any disrespect by any means with Ralph uh because but uh we think alike in that regard. So, I think um I

think Ralph’s going to mention that uh there’s an angle that supports the uh underdog in this situation coming off a

uh favorite loss of minus4 and a half or greater. Um here’s the thing with me.

LSU was listless last week. Brian, you mentioned that. Um I I just think that I

got to give them a pass. They come off their big win against Clemson on the road. Uh, and you know, you you

got uh Louisiana Tech in between the game against Clemson and the showdown

with Florida, who at at the time was a nationally ranked team when they faced them when they played last week. Uh, so

I to me again, I’m going to stick with my guns here. I think that LSU is the

best team in the country. I said that before the season started. I gave him out on the college football betting

preview show with Teddy. I gave him out at plus400 to win the national title. Now they’re around plus 800 or so. Um is

a singledigit favorite. Now if they were in the double digits of a touchdown or more, that’s one thing, but as a

singledigit favorite in this situation and uh Billy Napier, he’s on the hot

seat. Uh, it doesn’t look like the players really have his back the way they played last week against South

Florida. Um, I’m going to lay the points here with LSU. I know the early money came in on Florida, but I just think LSU

is that much better, and I think the seat’s going to get scalding hot after this week, Ralph.

All right, Ralph. So, give us the trend here. I know you you teased the trend. You heard what Ross had to say. He’s

sticking with the Bayou Bengals, LSU, Ghost Gaming Sport. uh give us the try.

Well, Ross, this isn’t a wow number, but again, I want to share it just so people know. I had the exact same thought as

you, Ross. I was expecting it to be a a fairly at least a profitable number.

In the last 107 games where a team lost as a favorite of 14 or more, they are 51

and 56, 48% against the spread the next game. So again, it it’s to me it’s as

important to know a trend that you had a thought in your mind and you know now that thought is should be thrown out

because it’s not relative either way. Um you know with Lagway I don’t know if

there’s legitimate reports that he’s banged up or just the rumor mills but that’s an issue here. Um I this is

another game where I love playing these conference games weeks two or three like this when you’re matching up. Now, LSU

did play some competition and yes, they were on the road at Death Valley, but they only had a uh you know, they only

had a 3 they only had 354 yards and they only rushed for 3.5 yards per carry. The

Florida defense against USF, they did allow 391 391 yards and they have been

sacked against each of their first two opponents, which getting a sack against Long Island and only rushing for 5.3 is

pretty scary. So, it’s going to be under for me again in this one. And something I want to mention and I am remiss for

not having this data for you. Big ATS difference in LSU Death Valley playing a

night game and a day game with this being 7:30 p.m. So next time LSU has a

night game, I’ll make sure I have those numbers for you here on the Blitz. But again, it it’s um Death Valley at night

games and Penn State white outs are my two highest rated home home uh home

field edges in all of college football. Yeah, something tells me this will not be the last night game for LSU, LSU home

game this season. I’m with you. I think they’re a strong contender right now with the question marks we’re seeing at quarterback with Georgia and Texas and

Alabama. I think LSU is very live to win the SEC. Uh we have one question coming in on a

another Friday night game from Godfather J 6 has chimed in again. He wants our thoughts on Kansas State, Arizona. We’ll

get to that in just a moment. I’m gonna just take my opportunity since this is a Friday game to promote what I’ve got

going on. Again, one more time, wp.buzzbe. We’ve got that weekend warrior pass. So,

if you want to get down, you get Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And remember, we’re throwing in Monday. Ross mentioned it’s

a double header this week on Monday. Remember, you got Bucks, Texans, Raiders, and hosting the Chargers. I

will have a 5% NFL play on Sunday. We will have uh at least three college

plays on Saturday. I know we’re going to we’re locked and loaded with three NFL plays on Sunday. And I might be playing

both Monday Night Football games, guys, in the NFL. So, look, $49. You can’t beat that. The I’ll let these guys um

after they’re done giving their breakdowns on Kansas State, Arizona reminds you what they’ve got cooking this weekend as well. Ross, I I’ll give

you I’ll throw it to you now. The floor is yours. Kansas State Arizona. And remind the people what you have going on

this weekend at wageralk.com. Yeah, I mean I can’t pull the trigger on Kansas

State. I thought that they would wake up last week against Army at home. Um

nothing embarrassing about losing by three on the road against a nationally ranked opponent in Iowa State. But then

the following week you come back. Yes, you’re weary from travel, but you’re playing an FCS opponent in North Dakota

and you need a lastm minute touchdown to win at home 38-35. Then you play Army as a 17-point

favorite. An Army team that lost to Ralph’s alma mater, Tarlton State in

their season opener. Maybe it wasn’t Ralph Alma matter. He’ll let us know, I’m sure. But, you know, and they they

laid an egg and they lose the game outright. Not only not covered, but they lose the game outright. Arizona’s got a

little bit of momentum after um a terrible year last year. They win their

first two games. Yes. albeit against less than imposing opposition. But I

think that Arizona State with the momentum and playing at home against a Kansas State team that right now I’m not

sure what you’re going to get from. You know, I I I can’t pull the trigle on Kansas State. Probably a game I’m going

to pass on. Uh but uh if you again, the proverbial gun to my head pick would be

on Arizona in this one. Ralph, uh, those who have followed me and have been on

board with me, uh, for any length of time before know that I am the ultimate buy low guy. I love to buy low on teams,

and this would appear to be a buy low spot on Kansas State, but I’m with Ross. I don’t think I could trust this team.

My power ratings say, uh, no, I mean, they’re back up to a road favorite here. I I don’t want to play them. I I know

they hammered Arizona last year in Manhattan, the Little Apple, but this game is out in Tucson late Friday start.

your thoughts on this one? My biggest power rating difference

and that’s just because I haven’t lowered Kansas State enough. You know, I mean, Kansas State is by far my biggest dropper in the power ratings this year.

So, I cannot back him. I understand your buy, you know, buy high by low situations, but it’s one thing to buy

low because a team lost but played okay. It’s another to get outgainained by 86

yards against Army and only rush for 74 yards against an Army team that has a

very small Dline against an opponent. I just don’t like the Arizona State side either. So, no opinion for me. I can’t

get I can’t get to either side on this. And just a reminder again, weekend warrior 49 Bucks a 5% NFL play loaded

for Sunday now. All of Saturday, all of Sunday, and Monday football included. A great offer.

Yeah, Arizona’s two and0 against the number so far this year. Um, guys, here’s a stat. This, uh, you know, I I

like you guys, I always pour over these box scores each and every week. This was the most astounding stat from last week

in college football. Okay, Kansas State second half time of possession against Army.

Three minutes. They had the ball for three minutes and a half. Tough to win when you only have

the ball for three minutes. Ross, yeah, I just wonder if uh Avery Johnson’s father and his brother got in

a fight after that game, man. after playing that way. Holy cow. Especially when the brother didn’t get

on the field for only three month minutes. You know, nothing unusual, Brian. You know, when you play Army to

lose time possession, but you know, you look at Army and it’s not like they racked up a ton of offense. They were less than 300 yards

on the game themselves. So, yeah. I mean, what what’s going on, Ralph, with Kansas?

You know, it’s one thing to say Kansas had three minutes of possession. It’s another to be a Kansas State team and

allow Army to run 82 plays against you. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah. Well, to to

Ross’ point, Army’s a team they’re going to run that play clocked down. I mean, they their goal is to eat that time, but

even by an Army opponent standardized three minutes of time of possession is quite ridiculous. Uh we’ve been talking

about this weekend warrior pass uh several times. I should have mentioned uh when I talked about the 5% play that I’ve got this weekend. Six and two last

week for me in football. Three in one college, three-1 NFL. We hit 66% last year in September, guys, uh, in NFL and

college combined. So, no surprise that I’m off to a 75% start this year. Uh, Mr. Benjamin, I believe you had

something to say. No, I was just giving you a thumbs up. Uh, again, yeah, I I didn’t mention

again to review uh, four picks in college football on Saturday, including the 5% uh, best bet. You know, tough

week for me in the NFL, folks. I’m going to bounce back. I mean, look, I had the over on the Thursday night game, the

Dallas and and Philadelphia game, you know, 41 at the half and ends up 44.

Um, I had uh Denver minus 8 and a half. They win by eight and they pass up a

field goal opportunity with less than a minute to go on fourth down. um you know field goal opportunity would

have been from 50 something yards Ralph but you know you’re in field goal range when you enter the stadium in Denver you

know so uh couple tough losses there and then the Monday night game I lost with Chicago so I tell it the way it is you

know I I brag about my college football record but you know the NFL didn’t go as well and uh we’re transparent here folks

um you know we’re not making up stories hey Ross if uh James Franklin was at

Denver coaching they would have tried tried that field goal. Oh, there’s no doubt. Would have tried a fake field goal.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Um, just real real quick here

if you guys did you guys want to reiterate your thoughts on Notre Dame Texas&M because we had a followup on that. Somebody tuned into the show. Did

we want to give under first half for me? But I think there was some good information. Just rewind back and go view it again. I

mean, it’s only a couple minutes. So, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Notre Dame coming off a loss with Marcus Freeman. Notre Dame coming off a

by-week. Uh, you know, again, Notre Dame coming Notre Dame beating Texas A&M on

the road last year. I know there’s a revenge factor, but there’s something to be said about that Notre Dame defense,

which is very experienced and held Texas A&M in check last year. I don’t see why the same thing doesn’t occur here.

All right, Colin Gregory, thank you for your kind words. I concur. It was a great show indeed. And if you thought it

was a great show, you can be like Colin and just tell us it was a great show. or you can smash that like button there

right below. We always appreciate your support here on the Blitz. We are live,

of course, every Thursday, 1 p.m. Eastern on the Wager Talk YouTube channel immediately following Andy Lang

and Wager Talk Today, a show that I know we all appear on regularly as well. All

right, that is going to do it. Remember to get your weekend warrior pass.

We’re all locked and loaded for a big weekend of football. Ross, Ralph, and myself. Remember, it’s going to be the three of us each and every week here on

the Blitz. We like each other so much, we decided to be your permanent team. So, on that note, guys, till next time,

let’s cash some tickets.