Baltimore Ravens – Urban City Podcast Group

NFL Week 2 Sharp Picks & Public Bets: Expert Betting Advice from Vegas Insiders

Urban City Podcast Group — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 19:05:11 +0000

This content has been republished, rebroadcast, and/or edited under the Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY), which allows reuse, remixing, and redistribution with proper credit to the original creator. It has been enhanced by UUN for educational, entertainment, and archival purposes, which may include the addition of on-screen graphics, ads, narration, or presentation formatting. — Original Creator: [Channel or Name] • Source Video: [Hyperlinked • YouTube URL] • License: CC BY 4.0 • Content acquired: [insert date]

Major Takeaways:

Sharp vs. Public Disagreement: Experts identify the Broncos vs. Colts game as a major split, with the public heavily backing the Broncos while sharp money is coming in on the Colts.
Books’ Biggest Needs: According to SuperBook’s John Murray, the books need the Titans, Bears, Seahawks, and Panthers to cover their spreads to balance the heavy public money on their opponents.
Top Prop Bet: James Conner’s rushing yards over is a top sharp play, leveraging the Panthers’ historically poor run defense that was exploited in Week 1

What’s going on everyone? It’s Wager Talk last call. I am so excited that we’ve got week two underway and all the

numbers, everything you need to know. It’s all right here on Wager Talk stack show as always today as we’ve got Yanni

the Greek live from Las Vegas taking you behind the counter telling you everything his sharp groups are on.

Carmine also gonna break things down for us. John Murray, Superbook, you know him, you love him. He’s telling us the

needs on the book because if you want to be on the winning side, we always know the book tends to win more than we do.

And then Press, he’s got his show at 1:00 when you can watch Press go live and he could talk about all the

different games on this slate that he’s watching and you can watch him have a meltdown. He’ll talk about the show, he’ll tell you what action he’s on,

stacked and loaded, ready to go. I’ve got some prop edges as well. Let’s start though with the man, Yanni the Greek.

Yanni, happy week two. Good morning. Good morning. Busy morning. Busy morning as always. How was UFC last

night by the way? How’d you Good. I had a good I turned a profit in UFC. Lost in boxing with Canelo. I I hit

the undercard bet but lost my Canelo bet. And uh you know what’s crazy?

I It’s exactly how I expected it to go with the scorecards in his favor. If

only one more round was scored in his direction, it would have been a draw even though he really lost that fight.

Like it was that heavily swayed in his favor in Las Vegas, which is the reason I thought was enough to back Canelo.

Like if he doesn’t get finished, I didn’t think they were going to give Crawford the decision. It came very close to that happening. So that was

wild. But uh overall good. It’s been a good month. Uh still number one in college football, number one college

football combined. So, let’s just keep doing damage. Not all that much coming in early. Usually, I have first quarter

bets by now, first half bets by now. Um, some team totals. I have player props.

Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. I don’t know. Week two. They’re there. It’s slow. It’s been sides and totals so far and a lot

of baseball this morning. So, I’m thinking it’s going to get busy over the last hour. Oh, okay. So, if we don’t have any of

these smaller markets like first quarter bets and whatnot, where have you seen the most action come in on for sides?

Oh, that that’s pretty easy. Um, here are the biggest sides right now. Uh, the

latest is the Cowboys. Cowboys, Cowboys, Cowboys. Nothing but Cowboy money. Jets,

believe it or not. Um, that’s why that line’s now through that touchdown. The Jets are one of those dogs that are

getting a lot of love early. And who else? Who else? Who? Oh, 49ers. Even

though um that line’s dropped and the wise guys took Arizona. Um uh the

Saints, forgive me, getting all those points because of KD, because of Perie. Um the public doesn’t mind. They’re

still coming in with San Francisco today. And then um Arizona. Arizona is

going to be big risk for the books later because there’s going to be a ton of straight bets, a ton of moneyline

parlays, and a ton of teasers all closing with the Carolina Panthers. And

um yeah, that’s pretty much it. I mean, again, um good spread out action, but

those are the ones attracting the most money so far. Dallas, um

49ers, and I have to say the Arizona Cardinals. biggest risk for the book so

far. The big game of the day is the Eagles and the Chiefs. Where have you seen most

action come in on for that really short one and a half point spread? Exactly. And it’s kind of flipped back

and forth staying around that one. This is a great matchup to be a book maker in

because there’s really little risk. They’re booking good two-way action. Even like with parlays and teasers,

you’re getting good two-way action. So, not much risk at all for the books. Um,

I actually made the Eagles a favorite in the game. I made my total about 45, 45

and a half. Um, so I don’t think I’m going to be able to get down. It’s right around where that number is. I know all

the excitement again is on that Super Bowl rematch. U, but so far what I can tell you is good split two-way action

from the recreational bers and nothing from the Wise guys except they got out ahead on the over. They went over 46 and

a half when that total opened. But pay attention to the um lodge odds logic screen and see if there’s takeback on

that one because again that’s a high-profile standalone more or less late afternoon game that’s going to get

a lot of over money from the recreational bers. I actually just saw my Ravens line move

to 12 and a half spread on the board this week. Yeah. And and here’s the thing. We bet

the Browns earlier in the week at plus Don’t tell me that, Yanni. Yeah. Yeah. at plus 12 and and that line

dropped. Um earlier it was like at my sharper shops I’m even seeing 13 13 and

a half but it was down to like 11 and a half Ariel because we took the points with with um the Browns but since then

they came back with the Ravens and again a lot of that has to do with late injury information that you know the the the

official injury reports don’t come out till later in the week. So, a lot of times betting synders trying to get out

ahead of that information and as it changes, they’re not afraid to get offer on a game. Um, and it looks like that’s

what’s happening. Even though early Brown short money, you’re starting to see that Baltimore sharp money come in

because the public’s not really getting involved in that game. It’s mostly being teased. They’re teasing the Ravens down

um to where, you know, they’ve got to win by one score more or less to cover that teaser. That’s where I’m seeing most of the betting action from the

public um on that game. And they’re betting it over, blindly over. I’m talking eight, nine out of every 10 bets

has been on the over in the Ravens and Browns. Bill wants to know if you’ve got a

teaser for today. Teaser right now here. I would definitely tease the New England Patriots. Um, win or lose, that’s a plus

CV sign. You’re getting them up through three, through six, through seven, and you’re seeing a total that open 45 and a

half. Get that bet down to 43 and a half. So, that’s exactly what you want. You want a a game that’s expected to

have low points. The lower the scoring, the more each point is worth. That’s what you want for your teasers. The only

problem is finding another leg to tie him into. And right now, I would have to go with Tampa on Monday night. Another

perfect setup where the total open 46 and a half. Now, we’re looking at 42 and a half. So, you can’t get a better

teaser than that. Like, that’s a perfect plus CB teaser right now where you tie in New England, you tie in Tampa Bay.

The only thing you got to hope for is that that um Houston line don’t go to three tomorrow. That’s the problem. I’m

seeing two and a halfs minus 12.0. So if it goes to three, it’s no longer a wangable teaser. It’s no longer

advantageous. You’re better off just taking the plus three. That’s the problem. I’m not seeing any other leg

you could really tease today. And they’ve done a really good job of protecting themselves from them teasers

because again, those are very advantageous. You know, you have an edge on it. As long as you’re not laying more than 125 on a six-point teaser, you

could print money. really really got me mad this year and they’re blocking them. So, I live in New York and I use all the

books the like the I use all the legal books here and every year I use my

teasers with DraftK. I place my teasers with DraftKings because they’ve been minus 120. Since DraftKings came to New

York, FanDuel was minus 136. MGM was minus 130. DraftKings have the best number at minus 120. This season, they

have now moved it to minus 136. Yeah, because here’s why. Let me explain to you exactly why. It’s the same reason

on the if you walk through the casino floor on the floor the blackjack is now six to five. It’s no longer three to

two. That little switch of one rule where you no longer pay 3 to2 you’re playing six to five. Most betterers

don’t even acknowledge that. Don’t even understand that. But that change in rule made it to where someone like me can no

longer beat that game where I’m I could beat a game a fair game of blackjack but switching it from three to two to six to

five my edge is gone in teasers by going to 130 the sixpoint teaser is no longer

beatable at 120 you had a 2% edge all you had to do is tease through three

three six and seven and you had a 2% edge your break even was around 74%. if

you’re able to do that, you’re going to hit around 76%. So, they knew you had a 2% edge if you were teasing the right

sides. Well, most weren’t teasing the right numbers. So, DraftKings didn’t care. They had so much recreational

bets, they could keep it at 120 and attract all that teaser action. Eventually, sharp bers took advantage of

that. And that’s why it’s no longer available. If you’re laying 130 on a six-point teaser, you’re now taking the

worst of it. you’re hoping to be the product of good luck because it’s a negative EV bet. There’s negative

expectations on your bet there. Like that’s the math. That’s not my opinion. That’s just how the math plays out.

Uh teaser question. Do you have to play a favorite and an underdog or can you place two favorites and two underdogs?

My man, you could bet two favorites, you could bet two underdogs. It really doesn’t matter. Um just don’t tease

totals. That’s it. And don’t tease across zero. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Don’t go through those

zeros. We don’t go through those zeros. Uh Marley saying, “Hi, Yanni, by the way.” Good morning. Um any Steelers Seahawk advice?

I I like the dog there. I like Seattle. Um listen, the Jets were able to score

on the Steelers. The Steelers got, you know, the that field goal in the end. They got the win, but at the end of the

day, that you’re the Jets are able to move the ball like that on you. I don’t think Seattle, whose offense didn’t look

great, is going to have all that many problems. And defensively, defensively, what I saw out of Seattle last week, all

those turnovers, fumbles, interceptions, and they still limited the offense of

the opposition. I think the Steelers are going to have trouble scoring on Seattle. Um, I like the Seahawks. I I

think that three is a gift. Um, yeah, I like Seattle there, but I’m seeing Shawn Money coming in. They’re pushing that

Steeler from three to juice. I don’t like seeing that. I would have liked to see that two and a half this morning.

So, but I like the Seattle side. I liked a question that the chat also had and I don’t know where it is, but

someone asked, “Is there a side that the public and the Sharps are disagreeing

on?” I’ll tell you, Adam.

Yeah, I have to go Broncos Colts. I have to go Broncos Colts. Um because I’m seeing a lot of one-sided public money

coming in on the Broncos. And again, in the afternoon, there’s not all that many games. Um, that’s Broncos, Broncos,

Broncos. I’m seeing Broncos teasers, moneyline parlays, and uh sharps on the the Colts side. So, that’s definitely

one where it’s sharps on one side, public on the other. Um, yeah, that that’s one for sure that sticks out.

Speaking of that game, there’s going to be a lot of overreactions in week two. We know the public loves to overreact.

Miami looked like dog crap last week. The Colts, they looked great. even though I don’t feel like people really

believe in them. Which teams are we overreacting to? Whether it’s for better or for worse, who should we not

overreact to this week, Yanni? I think the Lions. Uh, you know, all the the just how how bad they look. Lost the

offensive coordinator, lost the defensive coordinator, and then on top of it, you have Green Bay coming out looking phenomenal. They beat the Lions

in game one. They come back, they win on Thursday night against a Washington team, you know, that coming off a great

season. Um, so Detroit’s kind of like that forgotten team right now. I think they win by at least 10 today.

I’m all over. Yeah, they’re my survivor pick this week for a lot of spots. I I picked them in my

pickup pool. I don’t normally love to lay close to a touchdown. The Lions matchup, I don’t believe that the Bears

run D was as good as it was last week in week one. Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, they aren’t as good and dynamic and

versatile as the backfield for the Lions. The Lions should be able to run clock, run all over the Bears D and

cover the spread. Yeah, I I think so. And and also like the the Saints, again, I I I don’t

understand why how you could have these players out for San Francisco and yet

all the money is on San Francisco. Again, I know we usually overreact that players are worth more to the line than

they truly are. Um, but in this spot it’s like New Orleans was all all over

all already a team betters were looking to fade. They lost in week one to Arizona. Now they’re playing a San

Francisco team and like they’re fading them again. I think that’s a dangerous spot right there. Be careful with San

Francisco on the road on especially and uh players key players out. That’s one

that I keep seeing bet and uh seeing the over being bet by the public as well. Um

again, but the Sharks bet that under they’re usually going to bet the injured U matchups under. They went under 44 and

a half all the way to under 42. That’s why you’re looking at 41 right now. And real quickly, pay attention to that

because of the look aheads. So, if you’re looking at your odds logic screen or at the very least the free um wager

talk free odds and you’ll click, make sure you look at the date of where the line opened because the look aheads are

from like before last week’s games. some of them were or during last week’s games and those limits are very small. So,

they’re able to, you know, take some sharp action, but the limits are low off those first numbers. So, look at the

date from Monday on and then see what actually was adjusted because a lot of

them look like big line movements, but off of that look ahead, there’s not much movement at all. It’s just because from

the look ahead to where they officially opened for the week, there was a big gap

because of the overreaction like you touched on. Nick from New York City wants to know, “What are the most public totals for the

books that they need today?” Oh, yeah. That’s easy. There’s It’s going to be on the overs, that’s for

sure. So, start with over Jaguars Bengals,

over Giants, Cowboys, over Bills Jets.

Yeah, those three are the biggest that stick out the most. Like it’s not even close. Like 90 plus% of the tickets and

the bets are on the overs in all four of those games. Yeah, a lot of unders in week one. We’ve

got prime time as well. So, we’ve got one game tonight between the Falcons and the Vikings. And then we’ve got two

Monday night games tomorrow. Any action that you see coming in there? Yeah, you’re seeing that that um Atlanta money

continue to come in and I’m interested to see if that land that scares me a little. I like them.

It’s down to that three now. I’m surprised. I was surprised that they were at three and you could even get him

at now plus three at even money because you know they got to juice the three. I’m like is it going to go to three minus 110 2 and a half? Like there’s a

lot of love on the Atlanta side. Um and the o under there from Sharf but the

public’s betting it over. And then tomorrow on Monday night, it’s the Chargers. Everybody’s in love with the

Chargers now after week one. Um, and playing here against Las Vegas. You

know, it’s a big Monday night game for the Raiders. Be careful there. It’s above that key number now of three. But

a lot of uh parlays and uh teasers that are going to be live from Sunday are

definitely going to be on the Chargers Monday night. Interested to see if that line continues to climb as well. But I

haven’t seen sharp money on those. The only thing I saw was under in the Buccaneers Texans immediately when that

line opened and they’ve just continued to bet that one under. That doesn’t surprise me. Uh Survivor

picks for today. Who would you do for Survivor? Well, obviously, you know, everybody’s

going to look at Baltimore if they haven’t played him. You got a double digit favorite. But there there’s no fun

in that. Uh who would I go with real quickly? I think I would take Buffalo. I

think I would take Buffalo. I don’t Buffalo’s not losing to the Jets. I I think it’s a decent spot to take Buffalo

in. Yeah, go with Buffalo. Buffalo.

I know that props aren’t as much of your thing as mine, but did did the groups

come in on any props today? No, that’s what I keep refreshing and I

they they will. I just haven’t gotten any. I haven’t gotten any yet. Interesting. Is there a reason that they

wait because they’re trying to wait for the unders? I think so. Again, it’s it’s early still in the season. Um,

but here’s what I noticed and I know that you can say and maybe listen, there

are some times where a prop will go from like I’ll give an example. Travis Kelsey

this week was 53 and a half went down to 49 and a half. At that point, I would say like I took under 53 and a half

early this week and I said, “Well, now it’s 49 and a half. So wait to see if it gets bet over and then you could go and

take the under again. But a lot of the times when I’m on the right side of that number, it drops and doesn’t bounce

back. So I don’t know sometimes about waiting long into the week for betting unders.

Like you’ve got to bet those unders early. I’ve seen so many numbers drop five 10 yards throughout the span of a

week and you’ll never get that good number back. I always tell bers it’s hard enough to

beat the market. Don’t try to play psychic on when you’re going to beat it. Like when you have a bet, fire, fire. I

I if you’re right more than you’re wrong, long term, you’re going to get closing line value. Don’t worry about it

on individual bets. It’s kind of like don’t overreact on any individual result, any one bet. The same thing with

closing line value. Like if the line moves against you, that’s okay. As long as in the majority of times it’s moving

in your favor, you’re getting better number by getting out early. continue to get out early. If that’s not happening

to you, then you got to revisit the thesis. But if if you’re betting early

and more times than not, you’re getting closing line value. Keep doing what you’re doing. You’re only going to get

more and more of it because you’re doing the right thing. If if you’re not, then you got to revisit it. But otherwise,

don’t worry about the time it goes against you. Because even with me, with the groups that I work with, it happens. Look, it happened with the Browns. I

took we took 12 and now I could get 13 today. So, I could get a better number today than what we betted at. That’s

going to happen. But as long as, you know, seven out of ten times we’re getting the best of the number, I could live with that.

Yanni, is Miami a good team in Survivor this week? Oh,

Miami. What is against the Patriots? No. I I I guess if you’re you want to take a

shot and roll the dice, that’s too much of a coin flip game. I think it’s too early in the season to roll the dice like that. like in week two to go.

You always talk about regressing to the mean, right? Miami is not as bad as they looked last week.

No, no, no. But here’s the problem. Here’s the problem. That it’s the NFL

season and it’s sure, Ariel, and we have those outliers. If it was baseball, I would say 100% Miami is going to regress

or progress towards the mean. There’s enough time. But in football, sometimes there’s not enough time. We have those

outliers where on paper a team’s so much better or worse than their record, but they just never have enough time to

become that team they’re capable of being. In baseball, you have 162 games. That’s why before the season started, I

could tell you maybe one team’s going to win 60 games. The first place teams are going to win between 57 and 59, maybe 55

and 59. Why? Because we have a history of 50 plus years of them playing 162

games. And that’s what happens. No one’s going to win 70% of their games, but in football sometimes that happens. Not

enough time to progress and regress. There are those outliers. So, be cautious with that uh quick turnaround

expecting the the bias to to flip back the other way. But yeah, I don’t have to take Miami. I’m cheering them in. I

don’t have a dog in the fight. Oh, we I love it. I love to hear all these sharp sides. And if you guys missed it, our YouTube page over at

Wager Talk, you can scroll back and see everything Yanni just gave out. I see all your questions in the chat. Uh Yanni

talked about pretty much all those games, so make sure to take a look there. Uh lastly, I guess you said you

had a lot of MLB coming in, so anything for the guys that want to take advantage of a market that maybe is being ignored

today? Yeah, real quickly. 952 Pittsburgh and under eight and a half. 958 under eight

and a half Colorado San Diego. 960 under eight Yankees Boston 962 under eight and

a half Baltimore Toronto. Multiple groups blasted that one. 966 under eight LA and Seattle Atlanta plus 125 KC plus

145 Miami plus 125 dog on Sundays that time of the year for

baseball whether you follow or fade good luck today join us in the steam room kicks off in about 30 minutes we’ll go

through every NFL game and you’ll get those teasers about 15 minutes before kickoff as well

Yanni the Greek he’s always over here giving us these winners thanks so much Yanni thanks Ariel

coming up now we are joined out by our guy in Vegas again. This time he’s

behind the counter. He is my very good friend, best friend of Kelly in Vegas, co-host of Kelly and Murray, but more

importantly, the dog dad to two beautiful puppies. John Murray joining

the show. Hi, John. Ariel, best friend of Kelly in Vegas. I

don’t know about my best friend is my pug, Mario. So, come on. Come on. I thought that it was going to be a

raging endorsement to be Kelly in Vegas. So, how are how are you doing today? You

ready for the Ravens? I know they let you down last week. I I was disappointed in you last week. Do you remember this?

The book needed Bills big time. And then I slid into your DMs after the game and

said, “Are you at least happy for me?” And you said no. One word answer. Very disappointing.

Football’s a selfish sport. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Okay. I’m not a happy person. Football season

makes me more unhappy. I was miserable. It was really nice of you though. You’re a really great friend, JM. You love to

just harass us when we’re down. Keep kicking us. No, no, that was that was a big game for us. I won’t be rooting against you

today, though. I will I will be rooting for I’m going to root for the Ravens today for you.

Thank you. Thank you, John, so much. I know that week two is filled with overreactions. Uh but I know that my

personal group chat loves to know the needs for the Super Bowl this week. What are they?

Uh definitely. I’d say early in the morning we’re going to need Chicago. It looks like the biggest need of the

morning is actually going to be Tennessee. Tennessee five and a half point dog right now against the Rams. I

mentioned the Bears. We’re going to need Seattle. So Pittsburgh off their win against the Jets is a popular side.

We’ll need the Seahawks the afternoon. Oh boy. Uh looks like we’re going to

need Carolina. That doesn’t sound like fun. That sounds fun. Carolina at Arizona. Think about think

about the NFL being on this side of the counter is you gota you’re basically going to bring for the same teams every week. I think this year it’s going to be

a lot of Carolina, a lot of New Orleans, uh maybe Tennessee. Although I actually

thought that Cam Ward looked pretty good last Sunday to be honest with you going on the road against that Denver defense.

His receivers did him no favors. I saw him hitting his receivers right between the hands and them dropping the ball.

So, I don’t think Cam Ward’s going to be that bad, but I do think we’re going to need the Titans a lot. We need him today.

I know my group chat’s going to love to hear that the Titans, the Bears, the Seahawks, and the Panthers are going to be the teams that they have to bet

today. It’s setting Who’s in that group chat, Ariel? Who’s in that group chat? Kelly, I

uh this group chat one of 80,000. Uh Chris Thirsten. I love Chris. I love

Buckeye Joe. Okay, I know who that is. I know. Buckeye Joe. Um I think that’s it. Everyone else kind

of has been eliminated from our lives. The chat bigger, but every year it seems like we dwindle.

Everybody else is off the hook. Off the hook. Everyone else off. That’s good. That’s good.

How about totals? Any totals? Uh, let me see. I’m sure we’ll we’ll probably need the under in the uh Yeah,

we do. We need the under in the Philadelphia Kansas City game. Obviously, that’s the big game in the

afternoon. Looks like we’ll want under in your game. want the under in

Baltimore cle Baltimore Cleveland game and the under in the Buffalo game. Buffalo and the New York Jets. We got

some money on the over in that one as well. We’ll be rooting for Oh, here’s one where we actually need the over. You

ready for this? We need the over. San Francisco New Orleans. That game is all the way down to 49ers minus three. 49ers

obviously have some key injuries on offense. I mentioned the Saints. Spencer Rattler

is their quarterback for whatever reason and we will be needing them to go over.

Total right now is 40 and a half. That actually makes a lot of sense that that game would need to go over.

Does make sense. Yes. How did the books do in week one overall, JM? So, we had a great morning. We did great

in the morning games and then we lost every afternoon game last week. It was It reminded me a lot of like every

weekend last NFL season where the afternoon games were really bad for us. We really needed uh Houston against the

Rams. That was a really bad game for us. We lost the 49er game. We lost the Packer game and then all the moneyline

parlays and teasers went to Denver and they won. So, we lost every game in the afternoon. Luckily, and I’m not saying

this I’m not saying this to rub it in, but Buffalo winning did bail us out.

Buffalo beating Baltimore did bail us out. Saying that to people, I will never understand why John

Harbaugh punted on fourth and three. I I I talked about this with Kelly. I think

I think one of the biggest things that doesn’t get talked about enough in the NFL is it’s not black and white like oh

should you go for it on fourth and three. It’s who’s your quarterback who’s the other team’s quarterback. If your

quarterback is Lamar Jackson and the other team’s quarterback is Josh Allen. Yeah. You need to go for it on fourth

and three. You don’t cramping. Yeah. You don’t Well, you don’t punt the ball back to Josh Allen. Okay. You’re

just you’re just saying we’re going to lose. If the other team’s quarterback was Russell Wilson, well, then maybe you

would punt the ball back, right? So, I think I think that that doesn’t get talked about enough when people are evaluating those fourth down situations.

But, I thought Baltimore made a huge mistake and it was very good for us. I’m sorry.

Hey, listen. I’m going to overreact and say the Ravens are dead to me until further notice.

Week two overreactions though. Where have you seen the public overreact?

Uh, let’s see. the public. I mean, the public is very heavily on the Rams. Uh, I mentioned that game. And then there’s

been a there’s a lot of money actually on New England this week. So, New England is a very popular side.

New England did lose last week to the Raiders, but they at least looked like a competent operation,

unlike their opponents today, the Miami Dolphins, who Well, that’s where I think people could be overreacting, though, that I don’t

think Miami gets as bad as they looked last week. I usually expect Miami to be a decent

team until two tongue of Viola gets injured, which he will, right? And then and then after that, the wheels will

come off for that that organization, but as long as two is in there, I don’t expect them to be to be terrible. I I

don’t think so. Uh the other team that’s really the most heavily bet team of the

day is absolutely the Dallas Cowboys. We don’t have as much money on that game. It’s more tickets, but so it’s not as

big of a need as some of the other ones I mentioned. But if you just want to look at ticket counts, Dallas minus the

points, Dallas moneyline is in every parlay under the sun today. I just made

a Russell Wilson joke. So apparently I agree with the public on that. Russell Wilson looked horrible last week against

the Commanders, the football team. I I don’t blame people for wanting to go with Dallas. Dallas probably should have

beat the Eagles in week one. They get the Giants today. We’ll see. Those Giants. Uh, anything in the

futures market stand out after week one? Yeah. You know, they’re starting to bet.

They’re starting to bet on Green Bay, which I get. You know, Green Bay, uh, I

I look, I like Detroit last week. I think we talked about that when I was on your show. And we had a lot of guys I

respect on Detroit. That line actually closed Green Bay minus one. And that was clearly the wrong side. Green Bay handle

Detroit. And then we saw some players we respected on Washington on Thursday thinking maybe Green Bay maybe they’re

not that good. Well, they are that good, especially on defense. Uh Green Bay, I don’t know what there’s nothing you can

say that isn’t positive about them right now. As long as they can keep Jordan Love healthy. Micah Parsons is just getting his legs

underneath him. He’s not even at full speed yet. Once he gets I think the only not nice thing I could say about Green Bay is that everybody’s

on Green Bay. Yeah, but that’s true. But they were on Thursday and you know we did not do well

on the game Thursday. Every the public bet Green Bay for sure in that game and and they won it easily. So what what can

you say? The public isn’t always wrong. The public well hey look we uh the the

public was all over Terrence Bud Crawford last night here at Allegian Stadium and he won very decisively. Very

impressive. The public nailed that. So definitely not always wrong. Definitely

not. John Murray coming over to see us from the Westgate. I’ve got my pup. You want

to say hi to John? You want to say hi to John? I do want to say John J wants to say hi to you. She

really is mad that we’re just sitting here and not outside playing in this beautiful weather. Uh I guess final

question. Prime time games, two games tomorrow, one game tonight. What do you see in prime time?

Well, there’s there’s a lot of action on the two games tomorrow night and and kudos to the NFL. They’re finally giving us a true double header. You know, last

year they did a lot of those where they had the two Monday night games spaced out by an hour. Thought I found that a little annoying. This week we get an

actual double header. Sharp money on Houston against Tampa Bay and then sharp

money on the Chargers. Push that number from three to three and a half at the Raiders. Speaking of teams that look

great in week one, how about the Chargers and Justin Herbert? They looked awesome last Friday night. They beat Kansas City

in in Sa Paulo, Brazil. They looked really good. You know, I love Jim Harbaugh. So, keep an eye on the Chargers. They I

think the Raiders will end up being a big need for the books because there will be parlays all day today going into

the Chargers tomorrow night in the late game. We’ll probably need the Raiders in

that one. We’ve got a WNBA question. What’s your feedback when the playoffs start?

Uh, let me see. the what was I mean repeat the question I’ll attempt to answer it what was it

WNBA any advice when the playoffs start oh boy let’s see well luckily for me I

do work at a sports book so I can look to see what the smart people bet on because I don’t know much about the WNBA

I apologize for that but certainly some smart money on it looks like the Storm

oh against the Aces that’s unfortunate the Storm tonight against the Aces in game one they bet down from plus 7 to +

5 and a half. They also bet the over in that game. So, the storm and the over

game one is tonight in Las Vegas. There’s a big sporting in sporting event in Las Vegas every day, Ariel, every

single day. And wait till we get Major League Baseball in a couple of years. I can’t wait. I will be there. I want to

go and make sure that we go to a real baseball game together. JM

live from Las Vegas. Thanks for hopping on with us as you do every Sunday, giving us the needs of the day.

Appreciate you. And not good luck. No good luck today. Oh, that’s nice. That’s very nice.

You’re welcome. I’ll still talk to you next week anyway. I appreciate that. Thanks, John Murray. Have a good one.

And if you guys don’t know about it, the oddslogic screen, you could go to oddslogic.compropeen.

And you heard Yanni mention it. It shows you literally all the odds on the board. It tells you how lines opened, how

they’re closing, how they moved, and every sports book, etc. So, oddslogic.com/prop

queen. Someone who knows about OddsLogic very well. Our good friend Carman Biano joining the show now. He’s not in Vegas.

He’s in Canada. What’s up, Karm? Not much. I can’t John Murray used his

luck today on Liverpool. They got a 93rd minute penalty kick, so he should be happy uh even if the book takes a hit

today. But um everything’s good. Um weather’s still good up here. No snow,

Ariel, don’t worry. And our our Blue Jays are still a top of the AL East, but

we won’t go there. It’s football Sunday. It’s football Sunday. We can talk about the AL East and that craziness this

coming week. But Karm, I don’t really get to talk much NFL with you. Usually it’s hockey, it’s baseball, it’s soccer.

NFL, what do you like today? Uh we’re going to talk like some

overreactions. So I’m going to go through some games. I think the the two that really stand out to me. Uh well, I have a 5% play up at Wager Talk, so I’m

not going to discuss that game. Uh you can get it over on my page, but one of

my client plays today is Denver. You know, we talk about like overreaction. Uh you know, Indie had a very good game

against Miami, but Miami I I thought Miami just looked terrible out of the gate. Uh, you know, I feel like this

line should probably be around um, uh, Denver two, two and a half. I’m seeing

like a lot of ones and one and a halfs on the wager talk live odds. It’s never going to hit three. It’s never going to

hit that key number. But, you know, Denver is supposed to have a good season. They have a very good defense. They didn’t play uh did did they didn’t

seem to be ready to play in week one against Cam Ward uh on the road in his

first start as a rookie, but they got the win and that’s all that ultimately matters. They don’t care about covering

point spreads. They care about W’s. Um I I I think they win here and uh and I

think they they they cover this spread easily. At least they they win by three points, which is more than enough.

Houston definitely on Monday night. I absolutely love that one. That’s going to be on my card as well, too. I just

haven’t loaded it yet at two and a half. When we talk about like overreactions, I’m seeing a lot of money coming in on

Miami. Miami is like up to two and a half right now. And I I still don’t get it w with the Dolphins. Uh I think once

they get rid of their once they get rid of their coach, uh we may see a change in this team. But I just don’t get how

the Miami Dolphins year in and year out look like a team that has potential to

win the AFC East and then just falters and finishes eight and eight n and

eight. Uh Cleveland Baltimore, you’re not going to like this one, Ariel, but I think Cleveland stays within the number

on this one. It it is at a point now where it’s at 12 and there’s always that back door if Baltimore uh was to blow

them up. But Cleveland’s front four is a very good front four. And if they can somehow uh stop Derrick Henry, which is

it seems like impossible to do, and uh and slow down Lamar, they got a chance to stay inside this number. Flaco

doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Uh the team can run. So we’ll we’ll see what happens here uh between those two, but I

think they can stay within that number. Everyone is on Baltimore in Survivor and I I absolutely understand that in circa

I think there’s 6,000 plus on the Ravens as the most picked team. San Francisco I

don’t get Ariel I don’t get the I I understand the line drop. Uh I do but

this is still a very bad New Orleans Saints team. And if you have to give me

M. Jones versus Rattler, I’m going to take M. Jones on this team. This team

still has CMC uh Persol. Uh Joan Jennings is supposed to be a game time decision and they still have that

defense. Uh while they have some rookies on that D, they still have a defense and

sometimes defense will win you games and put your team in a position to win games. It’s at three now and bettable.

At five and a half, I don’t think it was bettable. At three, I would take San Francisco even with the injuries. Uh

what else? Casey, a little bit of overreaction, I think, on that one. I get it. Philadelphia absolutely smoked

them in the Super Bowl last season, but Casey’s Casey is still Casey. Uh, and

uh, at home, uh, this is in Casey, I believe, is it

not? Uh, at home, Casey. Mahomes as a dog. We’ve talked about it before.

Not a good situation to bet against them. Uh regular season and playoffs are

two different beasts. Uh just ask the Buffalo Bills who continuously beat the Kansas City Chiefs in pre uh sorry in

regular season and then uh get eliminated in the playoffs. Uh two

different ones there. And then the final one I think is Minnesota off a short week. I kind of like Atlanta getting the

hook uh at the three and a half tonight uh in that late one.

Kind of going through like the entire card today. I wasn’t expecting that. No, blasting through it.

No, I love it because these are plays. John Murray just came on and he told us Tennessee, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina

are the four sides that they probably need the most today. And I am not surprised because I feel like a lot of

people I’ve heard of are on Arizona. I get it. And I really like James Connor today in his rushing yard prop because

Carolina D is terrible against the run. Um, but I have a friend who works in

Carolina and he loves the Panthers today. So, I feel like there’s just like a lot of pros verse Joe’s today.

Shouldn’t he like uh Carolina though if he if he lives No, he works in media. Like he’s

nonbiased. Nonbias. So, he’s nonbiased. Okay. Well, I I get it. Uh, I I I always put my bias aside

when I’m talking about the Buffalo Bills as well, too, because you can sort of let that your mind

and um, no, I I hardly ever bet on the Bills. It uh, normally because number

one, the the spreads are just uh, even though they’re a good cover team and they were last year, the spreads are

normally just high. You look at the Bills today and we didn’t discuss the Bills and a lot of money. Everyone loves

the Jets. Uh I I know Joe Reeri loves the Jets today. Everyone seems to love

the Jets. A terrible scheduling spot for the Bills. Ravens last week. They’re on a short week next week going to M or

facing Miami. So I understand. I had no I wanted nothing to do with the Bills.

Yeah. and uh you know and you look at some of the injuries obviously Ed Oliver uh missing is a a big miss for them but

you look at some of the injuries during the week uh um with regards like the

like even their running back uh he tweaked his hamstring on Wednesday uh he wasn’t a full participant on Thursday I

think he did practice on Friday so we’ll see what we we get from him uh Keon Keon

Coleman as well too and then there’s that guy who you just don’t want to throw at which is uh Sauce Gardner. You

know, you just don’t want to go against them. Uh and the and if you look at historically over the last few years um

with uh with Josh Allen, uh he doesn’t go after Sas Gardner. He’s gone after him a couple times. He doesn’t go after

him. So, it it’s who else on the Bills steps up. Uh we’ll see what Shakir does

as well, too. But, uh I understand the live live movement. I think seven coming out uh opening at seven uh was probably

not a great thing because it was always going to bring in Jets money and it’s down to like five five and a half I

think six. You know, the interesting thing is, you know, people talk about teasers. And while I I do enjoy playing

teasers, you look at the three most popular teams with like a six and a half point teaser. And this was as of like

last night, you could have taken the Bills, Zona, and Detroit, and essentially made all three games a pick

them. And those three teams would pay you back at plus 130 on a six and a half

point teaser. If you take the same three teams on the money line, it pays 140. And this is why when you’re playing

teasers, it’s important to keep an eye on the money lines of these teams and see is it better to play a moneyline

ticket than it is to play a teaser because you’re you’re giving up some value by not taking the plus 140 on the

money line parlay as opposed to taking a teaser. Well, yeah, we were just talking about

this before, especially with all these books now charging you minus 135 for a teaser, a two-legged teaser. Just

absolutely ridiculous. And seven, by the way, Jimmy Burke 13, terrible against

the run. They played one game. Look at the Panthers last year, honey. They have been terrible against the run for the

last year and a half. They were the worst run D in football last year. And it didn’t change after they allowed

Travis ETN to put up 143. So, come on. Let’s It’s not just week one. Like, not

just week one. Sorry, I had to get that out there. Karm, what are you promoting today?

Uh, three plays up. Uh I gave you guys one of them which is uh the Denver Broncos, but uh a 5% play uh since the

start of the 2022 NFL season which dates back three years now. Uh when releasing

four and 5% plays and all of my plays uh this week are four and 5% plays plus 130

units uh at wager talk which is number one amongst everyone at wager talk with

uh NFL. And we’re coming off a 3 and 0 day in college football yesterday as well too. Um, I got what uh Ariel, I got

the closing line value yesterday on I released it early in the week because I figured the line would drop on Arkansas.

They were plus seven uh once Old Miss um announced their their QB was out. That

line did drop. It dropped to about four by game time and I got the cover. So, I’m pretty happy about that with with

Arkansas and everyone who jumped on board. But the weekend warrior uh package is still up. $49 will get you

all of today’s plays and all of tomorrow’s plays in NFL football as well, too. So, um that that is it for

now. No other uh no other plays up. Uh it’s been a great weekend, five and one

yesterday, and we’re just going to try and keep it going through Sunday and Monday. And we’re going to be sweating

the games live today. Uh if you guys haven’t seen it uh la or you didn’t

watch it last week, Enzone Live, which will be on I think around 1:30 today, I

could be wrong on the time, but Enzone Live today. Uh the press um there’s a

bunch of people coming on the show. There’s about four or five and we just sweat the games. We let you know what our bets are and uh it is like five guys

at a bar just talking trash to each other and uh trying to win bets because

sometimes we’re on opposite sides. So talking trash is great. We love talking trash. Karm, you’re the

best. Thanks so much for coming on. Good luck today. You as well. Thank you. Cody Holloway, I don’t know what FanDuel

you’re at. My FanDuel charges minus 130US 135 on teasers. So, I don’t know

if it’s a state-by-st state thing, but here in New York, FanDuel is not charging minus 110. In fact, I haven’t

seen one book charge a minus 110 on a teaser, a two-leg teaser. I have not

seen a minus 110 anywhere on any of the public sports books or the um the sports

books over here. So, I don’t know where you’re getting that, but okay. Last but certainly not least, as we mentioned

before with Karm Enzone Live coming up at 1 PM Eastern time and all of your favorite Wazer Talk handicappers will be

on there sweating out their bets. Andy and Pres are going to be on there. So Pres joining the show. How did week one

go at that endzone live betting show? Well, uh I don’t know actually. I just

did all the talking. Uh everyone who How did you do? I I did okay. I went with my clients.

The show was fun. I had a blast. Uh, but it’s a long show and you know it’s still

you got uh sunshine outside. Normally I would have watched the game at my pool.

I have like a bank of TVs. I like sit in the hot tub. But alas, I got to work and

I’m okay with that. I I uh I offered my services. We love to work. Pres, what do you like

today? Uh what do I like today? Um God, I’ll tell you. I I’ll go down the card at 100

miles an hour, but I do want to say one thing firstly, Ariel, you mentioned rough spot for uh the the Bills with

Baltimore back behind us and uh Miami in front. Why is it not a rough spot for

the New York Jets? Circling a game against Aaron Rodgers, waiting all year to play it, then screwing it up at the

end, having to go in to the dressing room in a bad mood, having to say no to their wives that night cuz they are very

upset. then having to go to Monday and being lectured and reamed out uh all the

way through the week, feeling down about themselves, feeling upset about themselves. The only reason it’s not is because the

Bills are on a short week going into Thursday. Okay. The only difference

I I accept what you’re saying and that’s what kept me off of the Bills today. But

uh yeah, no interest in the Bills today. But I agree with you that the Jets are not in any better of a position except

they are the home team and they aren’t on a short week, but I have no interest in the game because if

you think I want to be that miserable to have to bet the Jets this week, the answer is no. Okay. I like Miami. You guys were

talking about it earlier. Uh John Murray said a lot of money coming in on New England, which is very interesting given

that Miami is now minus 2 and a half. Uh we’ve done a deep dive into this and uh

if you can get a an an NFL team under minus two, you’re better off taking it on the money line. That does not work at

two and a half. At minus two and a half, you’re better off in the long run taking

uh laying the points. But I like Miami here and I look at it this way. This is

their season. This is this might be Mike McDaniel’s coaching career. that last

week was so bad, so humiliating, so wrong in every way that if they can’t

fix it immediately, I don’t think they continue. So, I think Miami has to give

us the best game they can all year and they are at home and it’s a short price.

And I also like the Pittsburgh Steelers. I’m an emotional uh when as a handicapper, I look at the emotions of

teams and this Pittsburgh team has to be coming into this game feeling really high on themselves. Um look, they they

won last week miraculous fashion. They’re 1 and0. They’re in a tough division. They have a game that is

easily winnable. Um and I think Seattle is a shallow themselves. I’m not a fan

of Sam Darnold at all. So there’s two bets. I like Pittsburgh and I like Miami

and both of those two are in my circa uh bets. Also, real quick, Ariel, the show

starts at 1 p.m. The live show that we’re doing starts at 100 p.m. today and

yeah, it’s a blast. Last week, we had an absolute blast.

Everyone gets to tune in at 1 pm Eastern time to watch Enzone live betting show. You could see Fred sweating out all

those bets he gave. Uh before I let you go, I know you got to get ready for the show. Survivor plays today.

Yeah. So, I took Arizona on my Survivor play. And you know, Ariel, the the

Baltimore play for all the people in the circa really freaked me out because anyone who took Baltimore is now going

to get stuck having to pick between Green Bay in Detroit,

Washington in Dallas, or they’re going to have to take Cincinnati in Baltimore because

Baltimore is out for Christmas or Thanksgiving. Whichever one of those it’s Thanksgiving.

Yeah. So, whoever took Baltimore is not thinking about this correctly because

would you take Green Bay going into Detroit? Would you take Detroit hosting Green Bay? Would you take Washington

going into Dallas? Would you take Dallas hosting Washington? No chance you’re taking Cincinnati in Baltimore. So,

I don’t get it. I try to take a longterm approach with this. Uh, so we’ll see. I guess there are people that take the

long-term approach. Then there are the people that take the I just want to survive to that point approach.

That’s probably most of the public the way that they play it. Uh I know that Survivor I know like Lions is probably

up there too for some people, but Arizona is a pretty I like the play even though I know the books need the Panthers. So good luck to you.

Yeah. And one of the guys in the chat room uh way back said, “Who’s a better better Giani or the press?” Uh, Giani

uh, lives, sleeps, eats, breathes. Giani

literally lives betting like nobody I’ve ever met before in my life. It It’s 18

hours a day. All he does is study bets. I do not. I am a businessman and I make

bets and I’m good at it. But Giani, Giani hands down. Although in NHL,

I’m way better than Giani. So that in that one sport, but Giani,

everyone has their sport. I tell Kelly, it’s baseball for me. I could be Kelly in baseball. And everything else, I’ll

give it to her. Kelly eats, breeds, and sleeps this stuff. Press, so do you, though. So do you. We love to have you

on here on Last Call. Have fun watching those games live with all the audience at 1 p.m. Eastern time. Everyone, make

sure to tune in. Uh good luck today. Thanks guys. Thanks for having me. Thanks for doing the cereal.

Of course. Pres. Okay. So for me, a few props that I gave out earlier this week

throughout the show. Jir Gibbs over rushing yards. James Connor over rushing yards. Travis Kelce under receiving

yards. I think Joe Flacco throws the football a lot in his first game back at Mnt Bank Stadium in Baltimore. Um

there’s obviously analytics and analysis behind all this. Um, so if you want to check it out, you can go to the prop

queen.com. Sign up and subscribe to the newsletter or you can watch my shows at the prop queen pod. Um, I’ve given out

all that info all over the show. Best bet right now, as of today, I took James Connor over uh

I think it was 63 and a half. I think it’s up to 68 and a half now. Um, but I took over 63 and a half rushing yards

for Jim Connor earlier this week. He is the Arizona Cardinals running back getting the Panthers who I’ve mentioned

is the worst rund in football dating back to last year. Travis ETN just ran for 143 last week. James Connor last

year underratedly faced four different teams um that were bottom 10 against the run. And James Connor rushed for at

least 100 yards in all four of those games. They’re a six and a half point favorite. So if there is a chance they’re up, they’re going to run the

ball anyway. Take advantage, run down the Panthers D. Um, the only problem that we’d have with this is if it is a

close game. John Murray said that the Panthers are in need for their book at the Super Bowl. So maybe this game’s

closer, but James Connor should be able to run the football well against the Panthers. Um, but if you don’t like

that, then Jier Gibbs would be my second favorite over 67 and a half rushing yards. He’s also getting a Bears defense

that I don’t trust yet against the run either. They looked good last week against Jordan Mason and Aaron Jones,

but we know that the Lions backfield is way more versatile and way faster than those two running backs. The Bears

allowed the second most rushing yards per game to running backs last year. So, I would take advantage of those two

running back props. Um, you can’t get the Travis Kelce number anymore at 53 and a half. It’s now 49 a half. Um, and

then I mentioned I think Joe Black has to throw the football a lot today at Mnt Bank Stadium. That is a very high pass

attempt total. 37 and 1/2 38 and 1/2. So those are like my top four props for

today. Um I probably could give you a fifth. I just have to go look at the

newsletter again to remember exactly what I gave out. Um I’ve also been

having some technical difficulties on my end on my computer today. Um

let’s see a fifth prop. And we’ve got Premier Lacrosse Championships by the way coming up in a half hour. So, if you

want a PLL play, Jared Burnernhard over two and a half points. He had four

points in the game-winning goal in overtime last time these two teams played. The Atlas are strong against the

attack, whereas Burnernhard runs out of the box and initiates from the top as a midfielder. Um, he had 37 touches and

nine shots, which was a season high in their last matchup. So, Gerard Burnernhard over two and a half points

in Premier lacrosse. Um, a few other plays in the NFL today. Cole KT under 19

and a half receiving yards. He had a big catch for 31 yards last week. We had the over on his longest reception that

cashed. But the Bears, they drafted Coloulson Loveland and he had two catches on two targets for 12 yards last

week. Kind of getting his feet wet. But now you’re getting a Lions D that allowed the third least receptions and

third least receiving yards per game to tight ends. Only 37% of tight ends went over their receiving yard prop last year

against Detroit. Um, I think Cole Kat takes a step back this week. So, I would

say under on his receiving yards. Darnell Mooney is a sleeperish play slash a little risky solely because he

missed week one with the shoulder injury. He should be playing today. Mooney had the most 20 plus yard catches

for the Falcons last year. He had 21. The next best was Drake London with 12. So, Darnell Mooney is your deep threat

in Atlanta. The Vikings allowed the most receptions per game to wide receivers and second most receiving yards per game

to them. Do I trust the amount of touches? Do I trust the amount of targets that Darnold Mooney will get in

his first game of the year? No. But I do trust that there’s going to be a deep ball thrown to him. And against the

secondary, which is more vulnerable than their pass rush in Minnesota, Darnell Mooney over 19 and a half yards for his

longest reception is another play that I would take a close look at today. That’s it for us here on Last Call on Wager

Talk. I’m the prop queen, Ariel Epstein. Thanks so much for tuning in. We’ll see you guys next week. Good luck to those

bets.

Packers Emerge as NFC Favorites, NFL Week 2 Betting Lines & Market Reactions

Urban City Podcast Group — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 22:45:29 +0000

Urban City Podcast Group

00:00

Sorry, no results.

Please try another keyword

" data-artist="" data-trackID="4633" data-trackTime="52:24" data-relatedTrack="" data-post-url="" data-post-id="4632" data-track-pos="0" data-peakFile="" data-peakFile-allow="" data-is-preview="" data-track-lyric="" data-icecast_json="" data-icecast_mount="">
View Details
by Pastor Robert Mosley" data-artist="Pastor Robert Mosley" data-trackID="637" data-trackTime="24:26" data-relatedTrack="" data-post-url="" data-post-id="636" data-track-pos="0" data-peakFile="https://www.urbancitypodcast.com/wp-content/uploads/audio_peaks/637.peak" data-peakFile-allow="1" data-is-preview="" data-track-lyric="" data-icecast_json="" data-icecast_mount="">
View Details

Major Takeaways:

The Green Bay Packers’ impressive 2-0 start, fueled by a stout defense and efficient play from Jordan Love, has made them the new betting favorite to win the NFC.
Significant adjustments were made in the market’s power ratings, most notably a major downgrade for the San Francisco 49ers without Brock Purdy, making them a potential value side.
Early betting action shows lopsided handle on several games, with the New England Patriots getting the points against the Miami Dolphins as the most heavily bet side of the week

Packers Emerge as NFC Favorites, NFL Week 2 Betting Lines & Market Reactions

This is money moves on VSIN the sports betting network.

We are locked and local on a football Friday here on Money Moves. Stormmy Bon

and Tony, Jonathan Vontova with you live from downtown Las Vegas. Circa Resort and Casino. Big show on deck. We’ll get

into some of the market reaction from the Packers win last night as week two of the NFL season is officially

underway. A big college football weekend also got started last night and will carry over. But let’s get this thing

started like we always do. Producer Brian Ortega, time to run it down. It’s time for the top headlines and

topics of the day. This is the rundown. All right, JBT. Top items on deck as we

head into the weekend. Starting with some great guests in 30 minutes. We’ll get top plays from VO’s own Will Hill. Then in hour two, VO senior editor Zack

Cohen stopping by with some NFL and college football as well as Arash Marcazi of the Sporting Tribune in

addition to all of our football talk tonight. Big fight weekend coming up Saturday here in Vegas. Yeah. I mean, so

I’m curious. You don’t have to say yes. If you’re not, are you going to watch the fight? Um Oh, no. You’re working. Let me rephrase

this. If you weren’t, would you would you? Because one of the things that I am like, I’m now down, especially with this

new UFC model coming in, like I like mixed martial arts a little bit, actually, a lot more than I do enjoy boxing. But the fact that this is now so

much more accessible, I already have my Netflix sub. Let’s go. I’ll watch it. I’ll throw it on. I’m I’m excited. I cannot wait. So, yes, Brain Part, you’re

going to be on the sideline for it. Uh, but I am very much looking forward to this fight and I’m actually looking forward to if boxing continues to do

this watching more fights. Well, and I was gonna say it’s been a while since I’ve watched just a pure boxing match. So, I’m excited. There’s

name value, it’s accessibility, it’s all of that stuff. So, that’ll be fun to get into with Arash later on in hour two of the program. Uh, that again is happening

right here at Allegiance Stadium. Well, cuz I even threw you for a loop cuz I was like, are you going to watch it?

You’re like, it’s a little, you know, a little crossover. Uh, we will also get into streaming on your phone. our best bets

of the weekend and cementing our contest selections. We are in Circumillions, Circus Survivor. You’ve got the college

football contest at the Westgate. So, lots of finalization to happen today. Put the college picks in this morning.

And yes, we need to solidify. I think we’re pretty close to solidifying our five in the millions, but we need to

lock down today and I’m going to press you on is what we’re going to use for Survivor. And I’m nervous. I have a lot of anxiety.

But let’s before we look forward react to last night, Thursday Night Football. last night at Lambeau Field and as Bill

AD headlined the V daily newsletter this morning. The pack is back. Green Bay haven’t heard that one

beats the commanders 27 to8 covers the three and a half. Total stays under any number and the final score I don’t even

think was as indicative as decisive a win as this was for Green Bay last night. Never in doubt really from the

opening drive. It felt like it goes back to what were we talking about? Was it Monday or after Monday? I mean these games are stupid. They’re b

watch the fourth quarter. that the fact that statistically that was such a a rear end whooping for the Green Bay

Packers and yet you look up in the fourth and you’re like, “Oh, it’s 17-10 and this could be something here if we’re if we’re like you got to kind of

sit up.” So, uh but Green Bay was really impressive and uh I will give two-time owner of the the Green Bay Packers,

Brian Ortega, who did not wait the second he walked into the studio. I was going to offer this. I think I owe a

mayopa. I didn’t think the Packers were going to be bad, but I have questioned whether or not Jordan Love was going to be particularly good. Uh, putting the

ball in danger was one of the things that I referenced quite a bit, especially from last year. My man’s been slinging it through the first two weeks

of the season. Now, there’s a couple of throws and a couple of touchdowns that he left on the table that if he actually completes those, we’re probably talking

about a snoozer last night, but it’s been pretty impressive to watch Love operate this offense. um now healthy and

after what we saw from last year this looks like dare we say the best team in

the NFC North and they are being priced as such when you look in the market right now let’s

first go to Jordan Love who you mentioned a great night 19 to 31 292 pass yards two touchdowns no picks that

extends his no interception streak by the way to nine games now dating back to last season he is the third shot on the

board for MVP was 20 to1 preseason 12 to1 after week 1 now 7 to1 behind only

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. And as we go to the NFC here, standalone favorites. Green Bay is at 3 to1 to win

the NFC. They are minus 165 favorites to win the NFC North. Yeah, and I think it’s all pretty apt

and obviously it has to do with what you’ve seen from this team or excuse me where they’re at. They’ve played a second game. They’re 2 and 0 amongst

some other teams. But the thing that really sticks out when you watch them is outside of love defensively they seem

legitimately strong. I mean, you had Micah Parsons in the over the quarter sack and he got there with the half

sack. You by the way, sorry, real quickly, I’m glad that we mentioned a couple of times yesterday the difference between that

prop being a quarter sack and a half sack because different books do it differently and that ended up coming into play with Parsons. Go ahead.

Yes. Um, but just that, you know, yesterday I had talked about Edin Cooper and the fact that he had been one of

these dudes that had been really taking a step forward. He again plays a large snapload. comes out with I think 10 or

11 tackles and uh looks really strong there. Even came away with half a sack as well. This front seven looks

legitimately good. Almost every part of this team looks really strong. And I mean I mentioned the best in the NFC

North depending on whether or not the Eagles figure out what’s going on with that second corner spot. You can make a pretty strong argument this team could

be after two weeks the best team in the NFC. No doubt about and again they are the favorites in the NFC now all of a

sudden. And be I want to go a little bit deeper on this defense because particularly against the run, how stout

this group has been through two weeks now. So Washington last night trying to run the football 19 carries for 51

yards, 2.7 yards per carry. And then pair that with what we saw against

Detroit last week and that’s Jir Gibbs and David Montgomery coming at you. 22 carries for 46 yards. So in all giving

up less than 250 total yards both games. um two wins over teams, mind you, as

well that were 12 plus win teams a season ago that were both top five in the NFL last year in points per game.

The Lions average 33.2 points per game, Commanders 28 and a half. They combined to score just 31 points on this team.

That defense looks real. And if you are getting that play to your point out of Jordan Love throughout and he stays

healthy and I know obviously the Jaden Reed injury is going to play a role in that, but they’ve got some other secondary guys like we were talking

about with Brian coming in. Could a Matthew Golden start to rise? Is their best patch pass catcher just going to be Tucker Craft because of what he’s doing

in the tight end room over 100 yards for him? He’s had touchdowns backto-back games. If this offense can operate at

just a a decent if not elevated level and have an elite defense behind them, they are a serious contender. Uh,

absolutely. I was trying to find what’s going to be interesting and uh we’ll see if I can grab the odds for it or if we

can find them because they are down now. I think they have a real shot at that last undefeated team.

So, they’re 2 and 0 right now. You look at the way their schedule breaks down. Depending on what you think of Cincinnati, who they get at home after

their buy, you’re looking at Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina up until November 10th in

Philadelphia. I I don’t think it would be astonishing if this team still has the O in their loss column by the time

they get there. We’ll see what happens with Cincinnati, but as we know, they have their issues defensively. They look like they have a very strong path, a

very likely path to being the last undefeated team or at least having a very strong record through eight games

by the time they go take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night. just out of curiosity because I my one

of my early thoughts watching this game was okay maybe did I downgrade the Lions too much coming out of week one after

facing this team like what if the Packers are just that good so then you’ve got the Lions taking on the Bears this week and is that line getting out

to six actually may be a little bit more appropriate now based on what this team actually could be I don’t know and maybe

that’s this is just a more of a wait and see game than I initially thought after last night two things to be true at once though right which is, hey, maybe the Lions are

that bad and maybe the Packers are this good. Maybe they both deserve to be altered in terms of their ranking coming

off of that game. Uh, we will see if that’s going to be the case, too, as we we get a pretty good match up between the Bears and the Lions on Sunday. But I

I wouldn’t necessarily say it’s binary one or the other. I think this could be one of those situations where we could have a scenario where both things are

actually the truth. And I mentioned six, according to that graphic at DraftKings, we’re up to the six and a half right now. Um, a couple

other market movers just to let you know. Um Parsons, his odds shortened in

defensive player of the year to plus 475. And we mentioned the MVP odds for Love. Jaden Daniels, uh Love is in that

third spot now. Daniels was in the third spot. He’s now seventh on the board at 12 to1. Um I mentioned the Jaden Reed

fraction fractured collar bone. He’s expected to miss six to eight weeks, but the big injury for Washington, Austin

Eckler going down looks like a season ending Achilles. and they let Brian Robinson go to San Francisco because

they felt so confident in that room and the depth they had. Well, that depth is being tested right out the gates now. Yeah, that’s And I thought too, let me

double check this because I want to see if I have this down. There was a lot of, you know, we come out of the preeason,

off seasonason, and we talk about some of these um hey man, really excited for certain guys, their roles in some of

these games, what it’s going to look like. Uh, Bill, right? Bill Crosky Merritt. Bill Crosky Merritt still had in

totality fewer snaps than Austin Eckler. So, I was somewhat surprised because I thought this was supposed to be it. And

and so Eckler now getting injured. I’m going to be curious to see if Krosky Merritt’s going to get that full work

workload. One would assume that is the case, but we thought that coming out that this is going to be a larger workload. And for a couple of games now,

it looked like that wasn’t it. So now it seems from a fantasy standpoint, player prop standpoint, what some of the adjustments are going to be for Krosky

Meritt now that Eckler’s down. It’s going to be one of the more interesting storylines going into week three. Yeah. And he was one of the most bet props yesterday over depending the

number anywhere from 37 and a half to 39 and a half yards. Ended up just having four carries and 17 yards on the ground.

Also last night in college football JVT I said if there was a bet I liked at NC State Wake Forest it would have been the

over because of how I rate NC State’s defense but like so the total ends up

going over. I’m sad I didn’t bet it. Um Wake Forest was covering the plus seven and a half for like 55 minutes of this

game. do not score in the second half. NC State kicks a late field goal, ends up

winning the game by 10. But we were texting back and forth about NC State’s defense. Like maybe we’re just needing

to target overs on this team or team total overs on the other side. Whatever it is, because that defense is brutal.

It was bad. I mean, so they give up the it was the kickoff return for the touchdown. Correct. Like right right away.

Down 14 nothing right away. Yeah. And then and then you give up the seven play 93 yard drive. And when we talked about this game yesterday, we had

referenced this in we were talking about the Virginia game where they had given up explosive plays, explosive runs, and

that looked like it was going to be an issue for NC State. And you saw some of that, but in totality for Wake Forest,

still the numbers don’t really add up for them. Only 12 first downs in the game, 7.2 yards per pass, fewer than

three yards per rush. So this was, man, there was quite a few of folks feeling

really good about Wake Forest when they were up 14 nothing. you and I text and then all of a sudden you blink and NC

State is driving away with this thing. So, it was a pretty um pretty interesting affair, but I think you put a little pin in the fact that NC State

defensively has had some really big black marks on their resume and they go to Duke coming up next week. Yeah, Wake Out scored 17 nothing in the

second half of that one. And too bad there wasn’t a yes no prop on will there be a food truck fire because all of the

smoke coming over. Kudos to the cook inside the truck. Did you see it? He’s got the the extinguisher thing. make it.

I would have been out. You just would have left the whole truck burn down. Run away. Run away. I

get an idea of how you work in a panic. Yeah. Not great self-defense or whatever. And what’s the problem? Fight or flight. Fight or flight. It ain’t me. Uh coming

up on Money Moves, JBT is taking us through his updated NFL market power ratings. And we’ll have some more college football a little later. We’ll

be right back.

You’re watching Money Moves here on Vin. The Sports Betting Network.

[Music] [Applause] We’re rolling along on this football

Friday edition of Money Moves Beast in the Sports Betting Network. He’s Jonathan Vonto. I’m Story Bon and Tony.

You can’t hit me with like things that make me laugh right before we come. I’m trying to be a professional and you got

me giggling. I hear the control room giggling. I’m doing my job and looking up, you know, metrics and statistics and and

breaking down EPA by formula. No, I’m not. Um, but I just I wasn’t really listening to you guys and I just hear

what was it? Stars of Mormon what? The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And

you guys were talking about Dancing with the Stars. And so then I snapped at you and I was like, you get so mad at me

about the Eurob basket stuff. How do you have time to watch these things? I don’t watch them. Then how do you know?

I get Tik Tok updates. That’s ridiculous. I don’t believe that at all. I don’t watch them. You have legitimate excitement about

Dancing with the Stars. the only reality TV cuz I like Tanga from Boy Meets World. Who doesn’t? You do. You are of

my age range. There’s no way you don’t know Boy Meets World. I have not watched a second of Boy Meets World in my life. I kumba. Okay. On to bigger

Secret Life of Alex Mack. On to bigger but potentially not better things. Um the NFL explains it all. Does

that Yeah. How’s that? It’s a good reference. Wow. That’s a throwback. I honestly like that is a show that

escaped my mind altogether. But look it up because what a just unlocked the memory. Time to get into some NFL, don’t you watch that girl

stuff? Like, I mean, it was on and I was like, “All right, I have an older sister.” But that’s why I don’t get the boy meets world thing. Anyways, we got week two

market power ratings you put together. You really did do a lot of work on this. So, I do want to give you your flowers.

You do this each and every week. Uh, for someone who has not seen your market power ratings, can you give a brief explanation off the top? Uh, again, I will always shout out Jeff

Fogle, former employee here, uh, who does a great newsletter if you want to check that out, too, but taught me how to do this many, many years ago. And I

think it’s a really fun Google exercise. This is in in basic format. It is what the betting market thinks of these

teams. It’s how it power rates these teams and you derive them from the current betting market where the lines

are right now. I have been using one and a half points for home field to find the difference in a neutral for these teams

according to the betting market and then you set the ratings up as such. So, there’s a couple of different ways to

use this and I think we have a really good example to use. Now, before the show started, I tried this example out

on you, and it did look like your eyes were moving in a lot of different directions. So, I hope I wasn’t like bloiating and and saying a lot of

different things. I was talking fast, but I think your team is a very good example of what we’re looking at here,

why we’re going to use these. So, let’s throw these up really quickly. Uh, again, basic power for a power ranking

or power rating standpoint, which is um, hey, all right, difference between the two numbers, that’s exactly what these

teams would be on a neutral. So, the quick example, Ravens will be a two-point favorite over the Bills on a neutral according to the market power ratings for this week. So, let’s direct

your eyes if you’re watching up on YouTube TV. Why wouldn’t you be? Or von.com. Why wouldn’t you be? Go to vast.com/subscribe. Check it out for

If you’re not right now, go back later. You can always check it out on demand. There we go. Promote, promote, promote. Uh, if you direct your eyes, and for our

radio audience, I will describe it to you. The 49ers without Brock Pery fall on the 78 12 line. Now, why this

matters, and if we could keep this up, please while I’m talking about this, why this matters is again the 49ers and the

Saints are pairs this week. They’re playing each other. The difference between the two on a neutral field

because the market is at three would be 4 and a half because we’re using one and a half for home field. So, you have to

have a 4 and 1/2 point difference between these two. So, in other words, if you wanted to move the 49ers up, that

means you got to move the Saints up as well. And from a power rating standpoint, it would make no sense to

have the Saints as equals with the Panthers, as equals or excuse me, two points or a point worse than the Giants.

In fact, Storm, if you go back to last week, I had to upgrade the Saints because if I were to use the Saints at

72, which they were last week, clearly the worst team in the NFL, that would put the 49ers on that 76 12 line, which

would make them worse than the Giants and the Titans, just a little bit better than the Panthers. And again, this is the 49ers without Brock Pury. You can

see the market downgrade here. And I think it’s one that’s very clearly, as I’ve kind of been making the case, I

don’t know, man. It seems like a pretty strong adjustment with what we’ve seen with this 49ers team to make them these

short favorites on the road against New Orleans. And here we have a visual example of how far they have potentially fallen. And so with that, does that mean you

feel like you need to bet the 49ers this week? Because the number is three. Granted, it’s on the road, but then even

when you take some of the extraneous factors and like your personal opinion on M. Jones, you don’t feel like it’s

that significant of a downgrade from Brock Party. So that then impacts your opinion in a different way as well. So,

are you ultimately going to fire on the 49ers or are we going to have them as a contest play? Yeah, I think that they should. Um, I

don’t want to put you through that. So, I don’t think we’ll use it in the millions, but that that’ll be a side for

me this coming weekend with the San Francisco 49ers. And this is really what it is. You know, you you use these market ratings, you know, you have your

own numbers, but that’s essentially what you’re doing all the time, right? You have your own ratings, you make your own numbers, you look in comparison with the market. This is just a different version

of doing that when you’re talking about make part power ratings from the market, but it does give you a visual sense of

where these teams stand. Um, there’s a couple of interesting dynamics that you thought that you were highlighting. What do you got?

So, I was going to say another one that we were talking about before we came on was where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit. If you want to walk uh the audience

through that. All right. So, Bucks are taking on the Texans uh Monday night. That is the first of the double header. They are two

and a half point dogs. Simple math. Two and a half minus one and a half. That gives you one. Texans are a point better according to the betting market if we’re

using one and a half for home field this coming week. That of course is right here. You see it in the rankings if you

would direct your eyes to the 82 83 mark right there. Texans are on the 83 line. Buccaneers are on the 82 line. There’s a

point difference. The reason why that matters is from our market power ratings last week. The Buccaneers actually rated

out as a half point better than the Houston Texans. So when you put this together, there’s going to be some

volatility. There’s going to be a change from week to week. But this is where you find a little bit of the inconsistencies. We’ve discussed this.

Now, what’s going to be interesting is we see a couple of two and a halfs out there shaded to the favorite side. So, I

wonder if this is going to get to three. But this all leads me to something that we had discussed, which is I think the Bucks are the play. You know, we can

talk about the intricacies of the matchups. The fact that this offensive line for Houston isn’t particularly great, the fact that the Bucks have a

good interior presence that can go after a soft interior for an offensive line that’s missing center. All of these things. But from a number standpoint, I

think these two teams are at worst equals with each other, which would put you at one and a half. Or I think you

can make the argument the Bucks, they were rightly ranked last week in these power ratings where they were just

slightly better than the Texans. And so to me, it would be the Buccaneers. I would also say, and I like the two and

a half, we talked about it yesterday. I I even think that they can just win this game outright plus 115 on the money line

here. But I think if nothing else, this is a great teaser. like bring that two and a half up to the 8 and a half in

Houston in what we anticipate could be a lower scoring game with how good the Texans defense is. Total 42 and a half

in this one. I really like bringing that up. Yeah. Can I point out one to you too as well that’s pretty interesting. Um how

about the the Chargers? Chargers, if you go back to last week, we know that the Chiefs were about three-point favorites

on a neutral field. So, that was pretty simple. Chiefs were on the 86 line, Chargers on the 83 line. This week,

Chargers and Chiefs because of adjustments are now together. Yep. They are now equals with one another and in

in a vacuum. Like, doesn’t that make sense? If I were to ask you, hey, what were you going to do after last week if we thought that the Chargers were three

points worse? Do you make them better than the Chiefs? Ah, maybe not. Especially with all the injuries and everything, but at the very least, they

should be equals with one another. And sure enough, here we are, Chargers and Chiefs together. And you see that, too. The Chiefs are taking on the Eagles. You

see the two-point difference there. They’re about one point favorites. The Eagles are on a neutral. That puts you at about two and a half. I was using one

as the number I was calculating with or excuse me. Yeah. So, and we’re floating around that range, right? Right now,

Philly’s like a one-point favorite. They’re a pick. So, you’re floating around that two-point difference on a neutral between these two. So, it’s just

a really good barometer. It’s a good way to visualize what you’re doing instead of just making numbers. You can compare and contrast with your own thoughts as

opposed to just cranking out power ratings as well. But, it’s I think it’s a fun thing to do and it’s fun to see

where these teams fall. You know, another good upgrade, for example, last week the Cleveland Browns. Browns were

on the 75 and a half mark or the 75 and a half line, you know, from a power rating standpoint. I think they got

upgraded to what 78. Yeah. So, like they’ve been upgraded. I think that makes some sense, right? After what we saw, probably should have won a game

against the Cincinnati Bengals. And then their adversary from last week, the Cincinnati Bengals, who were initially

on the 82 line, they don’t really budge. They sit there at the 82, but you bring the Browns up and um they’re a team,

too, among some others. Colts got upgraded. They’re at the 80.5 mark. Last week the Colts were floating around

equals with the Dolphins and actually no they’re at the 78 and a half line against the Dolphins. So I think it’s a

really good exercise man again and we can just give some visualization to where we’re at with some of these teams

and the question becomes with some of them you know for New Orleans to go back to the game we opened up with. Should they be upgraded? Should some of these

teams be where they’re at? Should they be lowered? And if those questions if you have questions to those then you act accordingly with some of the market

lines that we’re seeing. Well, and I think it’s just interesting, too, like looking at some teams in comparison to each other, even if they’re not playing

each other. Like the are are the Bengals that much better than the Colts right now, like that just based on at least

like the oneweek sample size. A handful of these though go hand inand of is this team actually that much better than

another? Sure. I mean, the one the one two um we’re talking about this, the Lions and the Chicago Bears. The Lions are getting

bet up in the market right now. Um do the Lions deserve to be rated as high

now? Now, it’s only one data point, but after what we saw against the Green Bay Packers, because right now they’re still

in that 83 1/2 84 line, if you see it right here, equals with the Chargers, the Chiefs, the Rams, still floating in

that kind of direction. Um, and I think you can make the argument that the gap between the two, the Chicago Bears and

the Detroit Lions probably should be a little bit tighter by my own measure. Well, and that’s why but to your point though about like these market

reactions, it is only a one data point sample size that we have at this point. So, we need to see what that looks like more. That’s why I asked the question

when we opened the show about now how good we see the Green Bay Packers are with against two opponents that last

year were so great. Are we maybe with the Lions? Did we move them down too

much mentally after what we saw against Green Bay when Green Bay is actually just really good. But to your point, two things can be true and we’ll see how

that plays out. We do have to take a timeout here, but remember as you head into the weekend, Broco has you covered.

You can use the code VSON to load up your account with a $50 deposit match up to 100 bucks. Then take advantage of monthly cashback style rewards that pay

you whether you win or lose. Maximize your bankroll at brocoplayco.com today. Coming up on Money Moves, V’s own Will

Hill joins the program. Why he thinks getting points in Sunday’s Super Bowl

rematch will happen. Take the over. We’ll be right back. You’re watching Money Moves here on Ven

the Sports Betting Network. [Applause]

Back here on VON, the Sports Betting Network. Money moves and VO’s exclusive betting splits cut through the noise,

pulling real time data straight from Circa and DraftKings sports books. Circa caters to the sharp bers and big wagers.

DraftKings is going to reflect that more broad public perspective, giving you a unique look at both sides of the action.

Track the percentage bets and handle on every game across every major sport so you can make sharper, more informed

bets. Start your edge today for just $9.99 at vin.com/subscribe. That’s vsin.com/subscribe.

Storm Bon and JVT with you. Speaking of those betting splits, looking at the Jets and Bills right now on DraftKings,

while 31% of the bets are coming in on the Jets taking the points, 70% of the

money, wonder if any of that has to do with the news this morning that Bill’s defensive lineman Ed Oliver, uh, who had

a sack and forced fumble in week one, officially ruled out already for the game coming up on Sunday. Yeah, I think with him officially out, I

grabbed six and a half, so I’ll add it to the ledger for, uh, the New York Jets. um second straight week back in

them. But I think that’s look with that Oliver, your premier runs stopping threat along defensive line. You still

got gouged and now you get this pretty threatening rushing attack um that comes from that Ben Johnson tree where Justin

Fields looked pretty threatening against the Pittsburgh Steelers overall pretty tall and this running game looked pretty good. And I don’t know if this is a

Bills team that is going to be amongst the best run defenses in the NFL. I think that bodess well for the Jets. So

I think it’s worth coming in with this news to grab six and a half. I don’t think it’ll move. So that but that was enough for me. So let’s go Jets. Yeah, Oliver, I guess, got stepped on,

had his foot in a walking boot, and was rolling around on a scooter at practice yesterday. To talk through some more NFL

sides, totals, best bets coming up this weekend. Excited to welcome in our good buddy Will Hill on the progressive guest

line. Von Prime Time, the should have bet more podcast. You can download and subscribe wherever you get your podcast. Great guest today. X not the Will Hill.

Yes, can confirm. And uh Will, let’s get into it because one game I know you have your eyes on is one of the biggest games

of the week, the Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and Eagles. You think there’s going to be points. Why?

I do. And uh good to see you guys. Thanks for having me. I I like over 46 and a half. Uh I thought watching both

teams last week, the Chiefs and the Eagles, I thought both teams had major issues defending the pass. A lot of guys

wide open, just running free in the secondary. Chiefs allowed six and a half yards per play to the Chargers. Herbert

three touchdowns, 300 yards, only ninecomp completions, no picks. And it looked like when he dropped back to pass, he had his choice of guys to

choose from. I don’t think that Kansas City has been elite defensively since a couple years ago when they brought when

they beat, and sorry to bring up painful memories that year. They beat the 49ers in overtime in Super Bowl. I thought they were really good defensively that

year. I don’t think they’ve been that year for a while. They’re shaky against the pass. And Philly, their numbers were

not bad in week one, but you could tell it’s not the same defense as last year. They’ve replaced a lot of guys. They’ve lost a lot of guys. And their stats

would be much worse if CD Lamb who dropped, you know, basically seven 10 points worth of drops last week. If he

could just catch a ball, those numbers are different. So you look at the two Super Bowls, it was 44-20, it was 3835.

I know that’s, you know, it’s a few years ago and there’s some defensive scoring there to inflate that. But I just think, and I always give out Bills

Chiefs over when they those two teams play because I think both teams go in, I think it’s similar here. Both teams go in saying, “All right, we got to score.

You know, we’ve got an MVP candidate at quarterback. We maybe have a shaky defense. We got to be aggressive. We got to go for it on fourth down. And again,

I don’t really like either defense. I wish that I had my weapons if I’m the Chiefs. No Rice. I don’t think Worthy’s

going to play. I think it’s more of a decoy him at practice, but who knows? Uh, so to me, the 46 and a half is

pretty low. I think 47 there is a key number. I think this one goes over here. And uh as far as the side kind of back

and forth, I just I can’t lay points even if it’s a point, you know, singular point and a half against Mahomes. It’s

hard to picture the Chiefs 0 and2. I I guess it’s possible. It certainly is possible, but I like the over more than

anything. All right, let’s go to another matchup. Um I’m laughing because I can’t believe I’m about to say this sentence after

watching this last week of football. What do you make of the Falcons taking on NFC offensive player of the year, JJ

or excuse me, of the week, JJ McCarthy? No, I think you had it right the first time. offensive player of the year, MVP.

So, you just uh just keep going. Yeah, that that was a weird one. Uh look, I I like the Falcons here. I think

that you if you just if you froze time at the end of the third quarter, I think we’re looking at like a one or a

two-point line. Obviously, you got to include the fourth quarter. You can’t dirty the data and take out things that happen. But they were very conservative

with McCarthy. And if you just look at Minnesota since the beginning of last year, and it’s hard to believe, 15 and

three in the regular season, that’s really remarkable. But that being said, uh, nine of those 15 wins are by one

score. They really don’t blow you out. It’s a lot of field goal wins. The three and a half to me is obviously a very key

number. And one of their blowout wins last year was against Atlanta, but if you dive deeper into uh that stat sheet,

Atlanta had over 70 yards per play. Atlanta had 500 yards of offense. It was 42-21, but Atlanta was minus three in

turnovers. That game just got away from that. Was at the point where Cousins started to unravel, started to kind of

decay. They moved the ball up and down the field. So, I think Atlanta could have easily won last week against Tampa.

They dropped some interceptions. You know, there’s some fourth down stuff. Minnesota could have easily lost. And u you know, our buddy Steve Fez who comes

on this network a lot has talked about this too. The angle of 0 and one teams against one and0 teams. You’re hungrier.

You need it more. Throw in the fact that you’re getting points. I think Atlanta’s the right side here. And Will, you did get some good news for

the Falcons, too. Drake London and Darnell Mooney. No injury designations for Sunday. So, both will play there as

well. Um, you were also looking at this Titans Rams game. Both kind of had a little bit weird week one openers. So,

where are you ultimately placing your money coming up on Sunday? Yes, the, as people who listen to this

network know, I have a very toxic relationship with the Tennessee Titans. And that toxic relationship is going to

continue this week. I’m taking them again. They killed me last year. I kept batting them. I just think they come into this year inherently underrated

because what killed them last year was Levvice and horrible special teams.

Special teams, you know, that can be year-toear that can you figure get better. And uh Ward looked okay. That

was a tough assignment in Denver. The elevation, really good defense. He was okay. He had his moments. I think that

the coach didn’t help him out. Drops didn’t help him out. I think he’ll be more comfortable at home. Uh we’ll see how Stafford holds up here after missing

the preseason a week after getting beat up and hit a little bit from the Texans. I just think five and a half is a little bit high. I think it’ll be close. I

think it’ll be low scoring kind of points in a premium type of game. You know, 20 to 17, that kind of game. I

think that five and a half is a lot here. So, I will once again, unfortunately, go back to the well and be betting the Tennessee Titans. Famous

last words for me. All right, Stormmy brought this up the other day and I think the general premise is right. I just don’t know if

the time is right, but you’re on the same page. Jackson Dart to win offensive rookie of the year.

I think his time is coming sooner rather than later. Maybe it’s next week. Who knows? Maybe it’s 21 nothing Cowboys at

half and we see him in the second half and and and who knows. I just think bet this before the announcement is made

because I think even just the announcement of oh Dart Dart’s going to start next week as quarterback. I think that moves the number and moves it

pretty significantly. So I’m just trying to get ahead of that. He’s a quarterback. This award is biased towards quarterbacks. He plays for the

New York Giants. That matters. The market matters. We’ve seen this. Remember uh I’m sure you remember JVT Tibido a few years ago in the NBA for

coach of the year. It was a close race. He got it. Uh, you know, Brian Dable won a close race a few years ago. I think I do think it helps to be in the New York

market and uh, I just think right position, right market, get ahead of the number. It’s not like Ward was great

last week. Genty didn’t do a ton. It’s a pretty wide openen rookie of the year race. So, I just think get ahead of the number. It’s going to be Dart’s team

sooner rather than later, we would think here, barring some resurgence from Wilson. So, I just think that’s the angle with it.

Yeah. To add to that, two of them. First off, Tibido won that. He had more second place votes or he didn’t have as many first place votes, but had more second

place votes than money Williams and he won that. the other to Will’s point, Stormy. Um, when Paul Skins, Paul Ske

before he got called up to win NL rookie of the year was 30 to1 and then he got called up didn’t didn’t pitch a single

pitch in Major League Baseball and those odds got cut in half the second he got called up. No, it’s it’s and it will it’s a good point by you because if if this ends up

being the end of the rope for Russell Wilson, you think he’s comes in sooner rather than later if it’s that bad and the offensive line doesn’t appear to be

getting much better. Andrew Thomas, by the way, still listed as doubtful for Sunday. That coming out about 10 minutes ago from Mike Gafolo. Keep that in mind.

And again, 22 to1 a good price on Jackson Dart right now. Last couple minutes, let’s go to college football

because we we all know about Diego Pavia as a dog and the success he has had. You were rolling with taking the points at

South Carolina, too. Yeah, I wrote this up for Fox Sports on Tuesday when it was five and a half. I

think we’re down to mostly threes. I still think it’s the right side. Uh very rarely this early in the season do you

have a common data point when these teams have only played a couple games and that’s a dangerous game to play as a better as we know. But, uh, both these

teams, Vandy and South Carolina, both played Virginia Tech. Uh, Vandy beat the hell out of Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech

team I actually liked last week. They outgainained them by 230 or so yards.

Uh, at Virginia Tech and won the second half 34 nothing. Meanwhile, South Carolina on a neutral field against

Virginia Tech played a game at least in the stat sheets that was kind of a coin flip. They got outgained. I know they had a punt returning, kind of pulled

away late, but I just I I love this South Carolina team last year, but a reason I a big reason I loved them was

their defense. And that defense lost three of the top 49 draft picks. They lost five guys to the NFL uh total. I

don’t think it’s the same South Carolina team. I think they’re a little bit overhyped. Uh so I will take Vandy and uh Diego here who’s just been a underdog

better’s dream. Like you said, eight-2 against the spread, four-0 on the road as a dog, a bunch of outright upsets.

So, even though the numbers moved here, I would only look towards Vandy. Yeah. Oh, sorry. I didn’t really No, no, I was

just there’s not enough time. I was going to ask about baseball. I got lost. I got lost. It’s okay. Ah, you want to spit out a play for

baseball real quick? 30 seconds. Go. Under seven and a half. Deg Grom against the Mets. Wouldn’t it be fitting Deg

Grom to pitch in a one- nothing game in that building where he’s pitching like a million two to one nothing games. That will be fun. With all of the football

going on, I had kind of lost track the fact that’s a huge series too. Mets and Rangers. Deg Grom back at City Field.

That’ll be fun to watch tonight. I think it’s more fitting if he loses one- nothing. It’s absolutely

nailed it, Will. Thank you as always, Will Hill. Everybody, follow him on X, not the Willilh Hill. Check him out live

bet Saturday coming up this weekend as well. Coming up after the break, we wrap up hour one going game byame through the

NFL slate. You might be surprised to learn what the most lopsided game of the week is so far. I know I was. We’ll be

right back. [Applause] [Music]

[Applause] [Music] [Applause]

[Music] [Applause]

You’re watching Money Moves here on Ven, the sports betting network.

[Music] [Applause] If you haven’t already, time to get down with First Bet, the official horse

racing partner of VSON, built for betterers who demand more. First Bet isn’t just about placing a wager. It’s

about helping betterers of all levels. With proprietary AI handicapping tools that provide data-driven insights to

help you make more informed bets, First Bet’s in-app tools give you win, place, or show probabilities for each runner.

You can quickly and easily identify good value plays and improve your ROI. Right now, you can take advantage of their

limited time $250 signup offer to claim your bonus. Use our promo code VSON250.

That’s V Sin N250 when you sign up in the First Bet app or at firstbet.com.

That’s the number one stet.com and promo code von250.

Alongside Jonathan Vonto, Stormy Bon and Tony with you back here on this football Friday edition of Money Moves. And I had

the tease at the end of last segment talking about the most lopsided in terms

of handle team that is being bet this week and I was very surprised by it. Ben Fox over at YouTube uh over at Yahoo

rather posts a lot of the sportsbook data every day every week. 87%

of the money the most the most bet side the Patriots plus the points at Miami.

Does that surprise you though? Really? Um,

no. I mean, I guess the degree to which like, you know, 87% if that’s an accurate number, but we talked about

Miami’s injuries and how bad it’s gone for them and how it looks like it’s falling apart. I guess I’ll say yes,

it’s surprising that they are number one cuz it’s like with a dot, right? Like they’re like clearly number one. Yes. So, I guess the degree to which they are

bet, but I don’t think it’s like stunning that maybe they would find their way near the top of this list. But they’ve good. So, I mean, it doesn’t

surprise me that people want to fade Miami based on how they looked last week and the injuries to your point, but

knowing what you have told me about how closely you watch that Raiders Patriots game and how terrible you thought New

England played that then we want to go. I feel like, okay, I want to pause you for I feel like every time you bring up

how closely I watch this game, my my analysis of has gotten more extreme like every time you brought it up. The first

time you’re like, “Oh, you told me they were bad and now we’ve reached you thought they were terrible.” like, yeah, they weren’t they weren’t good.

It was bad. It was bad. Well, to your point, to add to what you’re saying here, um I don’t think Christian Gonzalez is playing for New

England, so like that’s going to be something that’s worth looking at potentially. Um look, this is one where

um we’ll have best bets later. I think the Patriots are a perfectly fine teaser leg. This doesn’t look like it’s going

to be a relatively highscoring game, but also to express some shock, I think historically early season Miami games

have not gone well for the New England Patriots. So that’s going to be something uh with that sun beaten down. We know how these you know early season

Miami is akin to early season Denver and that when you played those games you a little bit behind the eightball. Denver

because of the inherent home field of playing in thin air. Miami because of the heat that teams maybe aren’t used to playing football in. So that’s also

somewhat surprising as well that there would be in in a game that’s not really been on a key number at all. Not really. It hasn’t been. It should sit at one and

a half this whole time. Um it does your shock is warranted. I think the other most lopsided games uh again

this is all by handle specifically from bet MGM data but 83% of the handle on

the Eagles in that Super Bowl rematch at Kansas City 79% of handle on the Falcons

at Minnesota 77% laying the points with the Lions against the Bears and 76% with

the Cardinals who are laying that 6 and a half against the Carolina Panthers. So, those are the most lopsided handle

percentages going into week two. Shocking. Any of those surprise you? I think I mean I’m surprised Arizona

still I I’m just really surprised that the Patriots were the most lopsided. You mean what’s the number for Arizona?

Uh six and a half. No, I mean like the percent Yeah. Like that that does surprise me a little bit. I mean I understand the Carolina

Panthers didn’t really look great, but it’s not like the Cardinals rolled in there and just beat the crap out of the Saints and left. I think that was not

exactly a stellar performance for Arizona when you looked at what they did statistically giving up the four red

zone drives uh to the New Orleans Saints. The fact that they had more first downs New Orleans did that technically they outgainained them on a

yards per play basis outgainained them in total yards as well. That’s not a team that I watched and then this week

was like let’s lay six and a half baby I’m in. That’s not exactly a team that I’m confident in. Interestingly enough,

like I I haven’t really heard a lot of people talking about the the Lions and Cardinals for Survivor as much as I

thought that I would this week. We talked about with Arizona specifically, we wanted to use them last week because

there were going to be limited opportunities to use them and we do have a slightly higher rating on the Carolina Panthers than others. didn’t want to use

them in week two, but after how Carolina performed, I thought that I would hear more about Arizona this week. But I I

feel like that hasn’t been as popular in talking to most people, which I think is a good conversation for us now as we

want to kind of figure out and cement what we want to do with Survivor. Um the

Ravens, yes, we know do play on Thanksgiving, but they are the biggest favorite of the week. Taking on a

division opponent though in the Browns, who just went toe-to-toe with the Bengals. So, it depends on how you evaluate Cleveland really if you want to

go with the Baltimore Ravens, but I I feel like both of us are pretty like-minded. The Baltimore is going to win that game. They should win that game.

And uh going to let’s not have that go around. I’m sure there was a lot of they’re

going to win this game when they were up 15 with five minutes left or whatever it was. So, Yep. And for the people that were laying

that point point and a half. Yeah. Not feeling great. Um but I think Baltimore is one that we’ve gone back

and forth on a lot. The Rams were also a team that perked my ears a little bit

against the Titans, but I don’t know if I can get there. And then you know how high I am on the Dallas Cowboys this week as well against the Giants. Yeah, I

mean I I’ve not really been like too high on the Rams selection for the most part in using them on the road against

what I think is a little bit of an underrated defensive team in Tennessee because let’s let’s roll with the

premise that I’m wrong about Bo Nicks and I think that you know there was some fraudulence in his performance last year and then we get that week one

performance and there’s a point of evidence to to my case but what if Tennessee is just an abovea defensive

team. Now you’re playing back at home after the game against Denver. It’s not the best situation overall for LA. I

think the argument to use them here is okay, if you’re not going to use them here, where else would you use them? I

would circle week nine. Again, it’s not like the pure fate of New Orleans, but you do coming off of a buy, get to play host to New Orleans. That’s going to be

something that I think is a more beneficial spot to save LA for than using them here in a road game against a

team that I think has the potential, if things go right for them down the stretch of the season, could find themselves in the throws of a

divisional race. I think you’re you’re right on that and I I do to Will Hills point earlier in the program which by

the way if you missed any of the show you can always download Money Moves wherever you get your podcast listen to that conversation but how Matt Stafford

bounces back after his first game getting tossed around didn’t play at all during the preseason didn’t practice hardly at all either um what he is like

physically week two on the road with the long travel all that stuff so okay maybe we cross that one out so are you in

agreement with me that Dallas feels like the right side in that Giants game. Yeah, I think your top two your top two

choices in no particular order, I’ll go alphabetical order again, are Baltimore and Dallas, okay, to consider for using Survivor. U you

know, we mentioned the the metric for the scripted plays and expected points added in those plays. I showed you the

graphic. Our boy Shottenheimer was up there as the number one team uh number one coach in terms of scripted plays,

expected points added. So, he is going to be I think a team worth looking at. They were actually kind of up there too

in terms of expected points out of the non-scripted drives. And I think that’s where Dak Prescott comes in and really helps out. I think my worry here from a

matchup standpoint, you’re at home, so that does help. What does this offensive line look like against a very good

defensive line? Are we going to be watching this game and find them in a low-scoring slugfest because that t that

entire defensive line remember we on Monday we talked about that game against Washington and the one thing that stuck out when we had brought it up was of the

top five graded defenders by PFF metrics four of them were defensive linemen for the New York Giants this is a group that

can really get after it and it’s still a relatively fresh offensive line that has been put together for Dallas that we

don’t know too much about and by the way the one test they were going to get Jaylen Carter got kicked out of the game before it started and we don’t really

know what his impact was at that game. That would be my trepidation with using Dallas. But if

you were to say right now, John, I want I’m like, all right, fine. That’s No, I I guess just my counterpoint to that would be let’s say that is the

case, is the Giants offense still going to be able to score enough points to beat you? Yeah. Oh, well, that’s the other part,

right? You love Jackson Dart. What if he what if he gets in this game? I don’t think he does. And so that’s

like I I feel like they if they were going to put Jackson Dart into a game, they would want to give him the full

week of prep knowing he’s the starter and put him in. I don’t think they’re going to throw him in, especially behind an offensive line that is still going to

be without Andrew Thomas for another week. Um just face your fate here this week

and if you do ultimately want to pull the trigger and bring in Jackson Dart, you give him a full week of prep. Sure. So that’s my thought process at least on

that. Okay. My other uh my other question for you would be then is there any other option for Dallas to use them? Probably

not. The only one you could really make a case for is if the Bears get absolutely smoked this week and they’re

just awful. You go to Chicago next week and then I don’t know, maybe at Carolina

if they’re awful in week six, but I don’t think that you’d be jumping at the gun to use the Cowboys in those situations depending on how the week.

Well, and the Cowboys, they too play on Thanksgiving and holidays, but like I don’t want to take them against the

Chiefs potentially, right? But Dallas this week at home, too. They’ve been so good historically in this matchup, 15-1

outright against the Giants since 2017. Um, Cowboys tend to beat up on bad teams. They play better at home. A lot

of things drew me toward Dallas. So, Dallas and Baltimore is the tossup right now. And maybe we’ll cement our decision later on in the show because we still

need to I hate this. This is going to be every week. This is going to be every or Yeah, I think Ortega hopefully.

Yeah, I was going to say, yeah, hopefully it is. Uh, Ortega texted us on Sunday something along the lines of like you survived and I just said that wasn’t

fun. No, it wasn’t worth it. It wasn’t. You feel physically ill. Who wants that? We could still We could still

technically our entry is now worth $1,32. We could sell it and split the profit. There we go. Nailed it. Nice.

$16 a piece. Okay, we got to step aside when we come back. Kicking off hour two here on Money Moves. Don’t go anywhere.

We’re going to get into a little college football after this.